This should be fun for any Rockies fan...

by GOROCKIES85 on Sep 22, 2009 12:56 AM MDT

First post so give me a break haha. OK so since their is no game tonight I'm going a little nuts. With the season coming to an end in 12 games and the postseason quickly arriving. Anyways, I love to analyze standings and figure out things and figured I would post this for everybody to see and up your excitement some more. I'm going to explain this in the best way I know how, if I lose you I'm sorry haha.

OK starting with remaining schedules for reference:

Colorado
San Diego - 3 games
St. Louis - 3 games
Brewers - 3 games
@LA - 3 games

San Fran
@ARI - games
Cubs - 4 games
Ari - 3 games
@SD - 3 games

Atlanta
@ NY mets - 2 games
@ Washington - 3 games
Florida - 3 games
Washington - 4 games

Florida
Philly - 3 games
NY Mets - 3 games
@Atlanta - 3 games
@philly - 3 games

I won't get into tie-breakers as that would just be confusing. But here is where it gets fun...won't post the whole grid as it's easy to figure out but it points out how close we are to making the playoffs.

Finishing record over last 12 games and wins, so to explain if Colorado goes 4-8 they finish with 89 wins, to match SF has to go 8-4, Atlanta has to go 9-3 and so does Florida. Than 5-7 and so on...

Colorado SF ATL Florida

4-8 89 wins 8-4 89 wins 9-3 89 wins 9-3 89 wins

5-7 90 wins 9-3 90 wins 10-2 90 wins 10-2 90 wins

6-6 91 wins 10-2 11-1 11-1

7-5 92 wins 11-1 12-0 12-0

8-4 93 wins 12-0

and so on...So their you have it literally a 6-6 record makes it almost IMPOSSIBLE to catch Colorado. SF would need 10 wins to tie and 11 to pass. Anyways didn't realize it would only take a .500 record. Oh and our magic number is 9 to clinch. 9 wins guarantees the WC, any combination of Colorado wins and SF losses that equal 9 means we clinch. So their you have it, if your a Colorado fan I'm sure you're happy :)

Poll

How many games will Colorado win out of their last 12?

1-4

3 votes

5-6

15 votes

7-8

57 votes

9 or more

11 votes

86 votes | Poll has closed

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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Comments

The equation is simple:

If Rockies’ Wins + Opponents’ losses over next two weeks = 9, we’re guaranteed a spot. I don’t know why you needed the whole breakdown. Let’s just win as much as possible and everything will fall into place.

And, seeing as this is a Rockies’ fan community, I think everyone is very happy we’re a shoo-in for the post season. You should read the home page about Fanposts and Fanshots and consider not making one as your first post. Just a suggestion…

-Joe

"Let me see that thong, th-thong thong thong!" -Sisqo

by jcn7vc on Sep 22, 2009 1:47 AM MDT reply actions

i like the breakdown

we all know (or should know) how the magic number is calculated, but seeing it laid out in that fashion highlights what good shape we’re in.

(but i still wish the braves had a tougher schedule)

and that the dodgers bus would get lost and go to tijuana..

by RockyMtnCat on Sep 22, 2009 7:37 AM MDT up reply actions

I agree

I know the magic number, But this was actually interesting to see what the other team has to do. When I see stuff like they have to go 10-2 or better I was actually surprised.

Good work on your First post.

by Redhawk on Sep 22, 2009 8:11 AM MDT up reply actions

I liked seeing the grid like that, too.

by holly96 on Sep 22, 2009 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions

Thanks guys. I did the breakdown because it was fun for me. Figured I’d share it, I was also surprised that 6-6 is almost a shoe-in

by GOROCKIES85 on Sep 22, 2009 10:16 AM MDT reply actions

This website does a pretty good job with the matrices breaking down playoff chances by records:

Sports Club Stats

For instance, merely going 5-7 and getting to 90 wins gives the Rockies an 84.4% chance of making the playoffs (4-8 is still a 60.8% chance).

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Sep 22, 2009 10:20 AM MDT reply actions

so using those % , how did you vote?

by butterfly on Sep 22, 2009 10:27 AM MDT up reply actions

7-8 wins.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Sep 22, 2009 2:46 PM MDT up reply actions

You can also click on his username to show his recent comments

It also includes recently published articles and votes. For example, I can see you voted 9 or more

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 22, 2009 3:36 PM MDT up reply actions

That I did, ...eternal optimist !

by butterfly on Sep 22, 2009 3:46 PM MDT up reply actions

Cardinals

I’m hoping the Cardinals clinch before the Friday game, so that they can give some of their veterans a well-deserved rest.

They’ll probably feel compelled to trot out Holliday at Coors, but it would be OK if they let Pujols have a day or two off :)

Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer

by kosmo on Sep 22, 2009 10:44 AM MDT reply actions

also carpenter and wainwright and pineiro

they can toss lohse all they want though…

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 22, 2009 11:00 AM MDT up reply actions

I'm actually looking forward

to going to Ubaldo/Carpenter on Friday night. Last Friday night game of the season. One of the best pitching matchups of the year. Fireworks. Come on, what’s not to like.

by Hizilla on Sep 22, 2009 12:06 PM MDT up reply actions

Any potential to not win.

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 22, 2009 2:00 PM MDT up reply actions

I think the Cards will clinch either before or during

The series at Coors (if during obviously because the Cubs lose not because the Cards win :) But the odds are they will clinch before (Magic # is 3).
That said, I still hope they give us their best. Assuming we make the playoffs every team is going to give us their best and there is a good chance that the Cards will be one of those teams we have to face. Let’s bring our game up to face their best pitchers and hitters rather than hope that they play their bench warmers. It will give us experience and confidence. and the reverse (potentially losing to their bench warmers) would be devastating to our confidence

¡Vamos Rocosos!

by Rock Oax on Sep 22, 2009 11:17 AM MDT up reply actions

I just want them to clinch before they come to Coors

so I don’t have to see a team celebrate their division championship on our field. Then again, that did wonders for the Rockies against the D’Backs in 07…

"Admirably obsessive." - Uni Watch, March 24th, 2009
NA34 | HK | RMN

by oo_nrb on Sep 23, 2009 12:27 AM MDT up reply actions

At least the Cards are in a different division.

It wouldn’t sting nearly as much as in ’07.

by holly96 on Sep 23, 2009 11:37 AM MDT up reply actions

I think Rox Girl pointed out the possibility

that the Cards might pull their big guns/arms in order to avoid the Rockies getting a good advance look

Patrick Saunders: I think Kruk is lazy.

by Rawktober on Sep 22, 2009 11:28 AM MDT up reply actions

Yeah

That’s not a bad strategy. Why tip your hand if you have the division wrapped up?

Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer

by kosmo on Sep 23, 2009 7:53 AM MDT up reply actions

Limited Action

I think Carpenter and any other potential postseason starter will be held to 5 innings. Wainwright might get a little extra to get him to 20 wins if possible.

by ntsfinest on Sep 23, 2009 10:02 AM MDT reply actions