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Don Baylor, Godfather of Rockies big bats or windmill chasing strikeout generator?

In a season where scoring is down across the National League by about 2.5% from 2008, the Rockies have actually seen an increase in scoring from last season by 7.6%, and are on pace to score 57 more runs than they did last season. Still, recent comments here and elsewhere have expressed concern over the job hitting coach Don Baylor has done. I think the arguments against Baylor boil down to the low averages that several players have held this season, a high amount of strikeouts and a general feeling that the Rockies are not performing well in clutch situations.

The argument that I and others put forward in support of Baylor are that runs ultimately trump other considerations with a hitting coach. If he's getting our guys to get to home plate better than any other team is getting their players to score, and thus far in 2009 he is, than he's doing his job.

Rockies 2008 and 2009 NL ranks in key offensive categories:

Year Runs Hits Avg 2B 3B HR RBI SO BB OBP SLG wOBA OPS+
2008 8th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 8th 4th 7th 5th 7th 2nd 13th
2009 1st 13th 9th 5th 2nd 2nd 2nd 2nd 1st 2nd 2nd 2nd 5th

 

So this table basically confirms what we've been seeing. Hits by the Rockies and batting average in general are down, but every other facet of the offensive game: power, plate discipline, stretching liners to the gaps for extra bases, etc.., seems to have seen dramatic improvements for the Rockies this season. That in turn has led to the equally dramatic improvement in the team's run scoring. And while the strikeouts have seen a bit of an increase, the Rockies were a high strikeout team already, only now they've bumped the amount of walks to catch up with the K's.

I have a feeling that this debate will rage on into the offseason with Rockies fans, but for me, the proof is in the pudding that comes out of the oven, not the one that goes in.

Finally, just in case you were wondering, one statistic that Don Baylor excelled at as a player hasn't really shown up as being coachable. The Rockies have dropped from the sixth most plunked team in the NL in 2008 to the 13th position in 2009. 

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How much of the offensive upswing

is due to the fact that we had like half of our team hurt last year?

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 22, 2009 11:30 AM MDT reply actions  

I'm kind of curious

How do those rankings compare to 2007?

Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!

by ShadowPenguin on Sep 22, 2009 11:35 AM MDT reply actions  

It's also partly a function of philosophy

They stressed patience all year, and it has shown up in leading the league in BB and P/PA. Also though, if we get deeper in the count, we’re more likely to strike out. Looking at just K’s in a vacuum is a little foolish, just as it is for individual pitchers. How about BB/K, where we are 4th in the NL? I’ll take that

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 22, 2009 11:55 AM MDT up reply actions  

I saw a study

earlier this year, maybe on fangraphs, about Adam Dunn and his high K rate and high walk rate, and how he had a disproportionately large percentage of backwards K’s. I think that if you are stressing patience as a hitting philosophy or approach, that you are going to be pretty apt take a lot of called strike three’s. I would be curious to see how some of the guys fall in to this category – i.e. how they stack up against league average at backwards K’s as a % of K’s. I would imagine alot of them are pretty high (Iannetta, Stewart, Smith).

by Hizilla on Sep 22, 2009 12:03 PM MDT up reply actions  

Earlier this year

I got data from baseball-reference.com that looked at stuff like that.

I don’t remember exactly what the data was but it was basically: as a team we got really good at taking pitches and then just freezing in 2 strike counts and we had a noticeable amount more of looking k’s compared to the teams that had struck out about the same amount as us overall.

The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.

by Resolution on Sep 22, 2009 1:48 PM MDT up reply actions  

I think Baylor is doing a great job

1. Some players have made remarkable progress or positive turn arounds this year (Tulo, Smith, Cargo, even Helton).
2. Overall most of the offensive numbers are up,
3. and what is a coach to do with a swing like Hawpe’s? scrap it and start over…
4. There are problems with some players, but I am much more inclined to blame the players in question than the coach. Really on those things that can be coached (especially patience and strategy) almost all of the Rockies do a great job.

¡Vamos Rocosos!

by Rock Oax on Sep 22, 2009 11:44 AM MDT reply actions  

I would approach this differently

If we agree that the instructor’s job is to improve the performance of each individual, team stats don’t necessarily get us there. So, you can’t really compare 2008 Rox to 2009 Rox as a whole to evaluate Baylor, as many of the pieces are different. I think I would like to see how each player’s offensive performance has changed from 2008 to 2009. With this approach, Tulo and Helton are evidence that Baylor is doing a good job and Barmes may suggest otherwise. Dexter and Gonzo would not be used in the analysis this year, but would next year. I may take a stab at this tomorrow to satisfy my own curiosity.

Patrick Saunders: I think Kruk is lazy.

by Rawktober on Sep 22, 2009 11:45 AM MDT reply actions  

What about external factors, like bad umps?

Maybe it’s just me, but it seems that the strike zone calls have been pretty erratic this year. One example would be the game from this road trip where Helton was called out on strikes 3 times. He generally has a really good eye, but that is trained to a normal strike zone.

by ddavis539 on Sep 22, 2009 11:47 AM MDT reply actions  

I think rather than lay it at the feet of the umps, we at time lay off anything that is not the perfect pitch.

"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine

by pedalpusher on Sep 22, 2009 11:50 AM MDT up reply actions  

Those curves Zito was throwing

looked a little high (but I’d argue still strikes) but they were nasty unhittable pitches.

I sincerely doubt the umps could impact season long averages unless their is an umpire conspiracy against the Rockies… which there isn’t

¡Vamos Rocosos!

by Rock Oax on Sep 22, 2009 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions  

I realize we can drill this thing down so far that everyone will go nuts trying to figure it out but here goes....

…how many K’s were with RISP in games we ultimately lost? That particular stat probably doesn’t exist and I know that we can look for reasons for failure everywhere but when we’ve come this close to a division crown, it just makes me wonder. And is it the coach’s fault for the failure? I’m sure this will be as RG opined addressed in the off season.

Then you look at the increases in BB, OPS+, Runs, slugging, etc which show great improvement and maybe doofuses like me are just looking for perfection and not seeing it.

"I've had pretty good success with Stan Musial by throwing him my best pitch and backing up third." - Carl Erskine

by pedalpusher on Sep 22, 2009 11:48 AM MDT reply actions  

Last year we also had

Matt Holliday helping batting average, Iannetta not batting .210 or whatever, and Wily Taveras not striking out much (although he also lowered the BA) – compared to Fowler who k’s a ton.

The Rockies need some oldschool purple/white striped high socks. The team’s problem is it’s lack of swagger. I feel strongly that these socks will provide the swagger necessary to tap the potential that are the Rockies.

by Resolution on Sep 22, 2009 12:19 PM MDT reply actions  

Walks

First in walks, with this young of a group.

I like that.

Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my web magazine @ The Casual Observer

by kosmo on Sep 22, 2009 12:22 PM MDT reply actions  

THIS

we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE

"TuLoRocks2008 had the most comments I've seen in any game thread this year (322)...Can such a feat be eclipsed?" ..... Bring it on!!

by TuLoRocks2008 on Sep 22, 2009 2:08 PM MDT up reply actions  

My only concern is that while they're learning to walk well

the may be anti-learning to execute well in full count situations and are getting the benefit of the doubt in a lot of situations.

Nothing to back that up though.

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 22, 2009 2:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

Getting worked up

about batting average for hitters is like getting worked up about wins for pitchers.

by Hizilla on Sep 22, 2009 12:38 PM MDT reply actions  

I think you hit the nail on the head

It all comes down to runs scored. Simple as that. The Natinals have something like the second best batting average in the league, and where has that gotten them. I can certainly agree that watching our team K all the time can become irritating, but watching them win has had the opposite effect. However another question is raised by this philosophy of mo’ runs ,mo’ better; Does our increased scoring have to do more with our hitting or more with our agressive baserunning philosophy.

by Mr.Clean on Sep 22, 2009 12:52 PM MDT reply actions  

How much of the improvement

is from getting rid of the bunt happy Manager? Hurdle was giving away outs last year, and it seems as though the bunt rate has dropped quite a bit this year under Tracy. Hell, Barmes is so rusty at bunting that he didn’t know what to do when he laid a suicide down…

The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.

by rockieprogress on Sep 22, 2009 12:52 PM MDT reply actions  

Strikeouts will go down next year

Stewart and Fowler will strikeout less next year because either they will improve or they will be out of the lineup. But I don’t know if you guys saw the article on Circling the Bases were they were arguing high SO players are better than low SO players. The Rockies clearly fit the profile: High OPS, High number of pitches seen, High OBP, and greater run production. Sounds like the Giants should strike out more.

by David720 on Sep 22, 2009 1:04 PM MDT reply actions  

Another thought

I rarely look at things without some sort of statistical base, but here goes. In the playoffs, we’ll face good starting pitching. Hits will be tough to come by. We will be trying to win games with grit, walks, timely hits, resiliency….we have a lot of experience with that now

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 22, 2009 1:14 PM MDT reply actions  

In the playoffs

kind of means that the statistical base goes out the window right? SSS…Which is why a guy like Jeff Suppan who had a 1.7 WAR in 2006 can win the LCS MVP.

by Hizilla on Sep 22, 2009 1:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

You changed your avatar

Don’t forget the Adam Kennedys and David Ecksteins. It is true. It’s kind of like arguing that this or that stat gives us a 1% better chance of winning a series when 40% can be attributed to randomness. It’s still 1% better than where we were before though…

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 22, 2009 1:34 PM MDT up reply actions  

IMO a team shouldn't change its philosophy for the playoffs (and I'm not inferring that you argued this)...

they had a philosophy that got them into the playoffs and changing it will only hurt their chances. The playoffs are after all a SSS crapshoot.

I do agree about improved pitching faced, but in the playoffs the Rockies should be relying on the things that got them there. In this case conventional wisdom happens to match up in a lot of cases with the Rockies (except we have more home runs).

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Sep 22, 2009 2:41 PM MDT up reply actions  

I think Baylor is doing OK, but

I really prefer to think of him tilting towards windmills in a full set of armor while Apodaca looks on.

by denver_sc on Sep 22, 2009 1:47 PM MDT reply actions  

you lost me here

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 22, 2009 2:13 PM MDT up reply actions  

oh oh oh

I get it

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 22, 2009 2:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

RMN is illiterate, silly.

Don Quixote whooshes over his head.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Sep 22, 2009 2:42 PM MDT up reply actions  

Usage question

If something is Quixotic, is it

quicks-otic

or

kee-otic?

Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile

by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 22, 2009 2:44 PM MDT up reply actions  

I got quixote

shaddup

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 22, 2009 2:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

Ha Ha Ha

This was on the right side of this story, as a related fanpost.

It’s a little light on statistical analysis.

Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile

by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 22, 2009 1:55 PM MDT reply actions  

:D

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 22, 2009 2:17 PM MDT up reply actions  

hsahaha I remember writing that

A Home run!
Look, Iannetta hit the baseball out of the park!
Yorvy….doesn’t do that.
It’s Tricky to rock a rhyme, to rock a rhyme that’s right on time It’s Tulowitzki!…Tulo-witzki-witzki-witzki ….. rockiesmagicnumber.blogspot.com
by RockiesMagicNumber on May 31, 2008 2:48 AM MDT

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 22, 2009 2:15 PM MDT up reply actions  

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