The Rockies with 2 outs
Nothing is more gutwrenching than having a man in scoring position with one out and then watching your next batter pop out or something like that. You want the plate appearances to be productive, because we have a guy on base! We want that guy to score! If you aren't going to drive him in, at least ground out to the right side so the runner at 2B can at least advance to 3B, right?
But see, then we have 2 outs, and the inning is practically over. Because come on, we have 2 outs. We're gonna blow it. The Rockies are TERRIBLE at driving guys in with 2 outs.
Or are we?
Allow me to lay some learning on you.
Join me after the jump.
The Rockies are actually most successful with 1 out, posting an OPS of .806. That's pretty solid right there. They are least successful with 0 outs, posting a .758 OPS. We are mediumly successful with 2 outs, OPSing .782. It should also be noted that AVG/OBP/SLG are also ranked as such, so it's not like we slug 100 times harder with 2 outs or something, those all follow the rankings from above.
|
Split |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
|
0 outs |
.256 |
.334 |
.424 |
.758 |
|
1 out |
.267 |
.353 |
.453 |
.806 |
|
2 outs |
.256 |
.340 |
.442 |
.782 |
So it's not as bad as the panicky selective memory may act. There are some concerns, however.
|
Split |
GDP |
SH |
SF |
SO |
|
0 outs |
52 |
52 |
17 |
369 |
|
1 out |
52 |
19 |
37 |
372 |
|
2 outs |
0 |
0 |
0 |
431 |
The most disturbing number there is the huge disparity in the number of strikeouts we have with 2 outs. I thought about this for a second, and then thought "wait, but what about the pitchers? If we're getting Danny HarOWNED then there's a good chance we're going 1-2-3, which means the pitcher is gonna get pelted with that 2-out K pretty often. That's gonna skew our numbers. While we'd love our pitchers to be able to hit with 2 outs, we're not really factoring their production into our situational hitting (well, for the sake of this analysis I'm not). So looking at the numbers WITHOUT the pitchers:
|
Split |
SO |
GDP |
SH |
SF |
|
0 out |
336 |
52 |
33 |
17 |
|
1 out |
352 |
47 |
3 |
36 |
|
2 out |
387 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Well, that seems quite a bit more realistic, but the fact that we're less likely to punch out with only 1 out seems somewhat worrisome. It's like everyone gets into their own heads with 2 outs or something (don't think about an elephant).
The upside of our batters is that we're clearly experts on not grounding into double plays with 2 outs. Good to see us running everything out hard. At the same time, however, I want to see more fundamental baseball with 2 outs! Runner on 3B, you get that ball in the air! That's been insanely frustrating.
I'm totally kidding about that last part.
So with 2 outs, here are the batters we want to see at the plate:
|
Name |
G |
PA |
HR |
RBI |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
|
4 |
6 |
2 |
7 |
.750 |
.833 |
2.500 |
3.333 |
|
|
75 |
117 |
1 |
18 |
.333 |
.419 |
.549 |
.968 |
|
|
119 |
231 |
8 |
30 |
.323 |
.429 |
.518 |
.947 |
|
|
67 |
96 |
2 |
15 |
.349 |
.417 |
.523 |
.940 |
|
|
107 |
190 |
9 |
40 |
.284 |
.363 |
.544 |
.908 |
That's right, Whiffy McFailSuck is still our 2-out RBI leader. I really chalk that up to luck in the timing, but a .544 SLG is going to drive guys along the basepaths well one way or another. Those 9 dingers kind of make Hawpe still the 2-out guy. I mean, this doesn't really mean that much, maybe just something more to think about in lineup construction.
Obviosuly, the numbers are telling us that Dex is the best 2-out guy to have around, based on all the batting numbers. But based on the fact that Dex is typically leading off, he has the #8 and the pitcher batting in front of him, so I'm guessing that he doesn't get an awful lot of RBI opportunities. (Remember back in 2005 when Barmes had all them RBI as a leadoff hitter? That was kind of weird.)
Anyhow, because split stats are fun, we can get even clutcher and awesomer. We're going 2 outs with RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION.
|
Name |
PA |
AB |
HR |
RBI |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
|
Jason Giambi |
4 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
.667 |
.750 |
2.000 |
2.750 |
|
5 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
.500 |
.800 |
.500 |
1.300 |
|
|
21 |
16 |
0 |
11 |
.438 |
.571 |
.563 |
1.134 |
|
|
43 |
33 |
4 |
17 |
.212 |
.395 |
.667 |
1.062 |
|
|
Dexter Fowler |
57 |
47 |
1 |
16 |
.319 |
.439 |
.553 |
.992 |
|
Todd Helton |
66 |
49 |
1 |
23 |
.347 |
.515 |
.469 |
.985 |
|
Brad Hawpe |
86 |
72 |
5 |
30 |
.264 |
.384 |
.556 |
.939 |
|
65 |
54 |
3 |
18 |
.278 |
.400 |
.500 |
.900 |
I kind of hesitated to even include Phillips in this, simply because he hasn't had an AB since like June, but whatever, he had a good stint.
Hawpe still leads the RBI leaderboard, but Torrealba's numbers are just insane. Granted, it's almost entirely singles, but a 1.134 OPS is not to be ignored.
So while the situation is never really ideal, having to produce with 2 outs, it's good to know that we have guys here who can get the job done.
Because we're gonna need them.
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SSS!!!!!!
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 23, 2009 11:21 AM MDT reply actions
shut up
everything I write is gonna be SSS and you know it. I can’t really say much definitively until the offseason.
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Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...
by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 11:25 AM MDT up reply actions
what is SSS?
at the risk of sounding like an ignorant baseball fan…
Small Sample Size
it’s a statistical thing.
The reason we bring it up is for when somebody says “Well, Quintanilla is 4-for-5 against Carpenter, he should start!” Well, as great as that .800 average is, what are the odds that it’s just completely luck, and that if we stretched it out over like 500 plate appearances against Carpenter, it’d look more like .185/.245/.300 or something paltry like that? Performances trend toward the mean.
It’s hard to discern much going forward with a small sample size. So basically, you could say “Small sample size!” and just disregard this entire article. But it has to give at some point so you can actually break things down.
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions
ha, I made that up
he’s never actually faced Carp.
He is, however, 1-4 with 3BB vs Matt Cain!
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 11:39 AM MDT up reply actions
I had to step away from my computer
Check what barmes has done v wainwright
Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
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by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 11:44 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
identical to his numbers vs. Carp
Ugh. I think I could do better.
On the plus side, Deermeat hits Franklin pretty good! So…yeah…
I just had to
when you said “phillips had a good stint,” which was made up of one hit. That’s less hits than Darren Dreifort had HR in one day once. I’m just Josh Foggin you. :)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 23, 2009 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions
And actually
I’m of the opinion that randomness plays a significantly greater part in RISP hitting than any type of RISP skill. Sure, there are players with ice in their veins that can take a solid aggressive approach, and there are players that freeze up under pressure and K. But by and large, no way do I want Yorvit up with 2-out/RISP over Helton
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 23, 2009 11:54 AM MDT up reply actions
I meant when Iannetta was down and Torrealba was in Venezuela
Phillips had a good stint.
Gosh.
Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...
by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 12:09 PM MDT up reply actions
Our catchers and Atkins are among the best with 2 outs and RISP?
Who woulda seen that coming?
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
Heh...I feel a tad vindicated in my continuing support
of Hawpe and Atty to a lesser degree.
Yorvit Torrealba - name means RISPY HAWT!
Troy Tulowitzki- THE best shortstop in the game..nuff said..
Dexter Fowler - prowling CF, waiting to swoop into the playoffs!
Brad Hawpe- It's not funny anymore, GET SOME $%(*&*(^&* HITS AND RUNS!!!:/
Whiffy McFailSuck
Thats a good one. This probably doesn’t belong here but there is really no where else to put it so I figured the counting Rocks post would be a good start.
My opposition to Brad Hawpe being in the lineup from this point on has really nothing to do with his offensive side of the game. He’s still a decent bat to have in the lineup, despite his horrid slump recently. It has more to do with the fact that Seth Smith will put up just as good as numbers and will allow Carlos Gonzales to slide over to Right Field. The improvement on Defense alone justifies the permanent benching, and future trade of Whiffy McFailSuck
Brad Hawpe - Providing Air Conditioning to Catchers Everywhere.
Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg
Actually if you look at it further
And take a look at each of our outfielders WAR (Wins above Replacement courtesy of fan graphs)
Hawpe: 1.2
Gonzalez: 1.9
Fowler: 1.0
Smith: 2.7
So basically Hawpe has been slightly more valuable then Fowler (and thats with a low defensive score for Fowler, which are suspect to begin with)
Next years OF should be Gonzalez Fowler Smith Left to Right. Trade Hawpe for next years version of Jason Marquis or Bentacourt.
Brad Hawpe - Providing Air Conditioning to Catchers Everywhere.
Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg
Don't you mean
Right to Left? I would rather have Smith’s average or worse D in LF and CarGo’s range and cannon in Right.
Yup thats what I meant.
So used to seeing Gonzalez in Center or Left that it was just a typo.
Brad Hawpe - Providing Air Conditioning to Catchers Everywhere.
Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg
Figured as much
I assume that Seth will be in LF for the next couple nights, or at least until it warms up. Trying to do stuff on a tight hammy when it’s cold is asking for disaster.
left field is much bigger than right in coors
i’d rather have cargo’s range in left.
his cannon is somewhat wasted in left.
You use cannons, range can be wasted
We had Holliday and Bichette in left over the years. And we survived. You don’t waste cannons in left though.
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 23, 2009 1:35 PM MDT up reply actions
Good range prevents more runs than a strong throwing arm
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Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...
by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 2:03 PM MDT up reply actions
So you want CarGo left, Dex center, Smith right?
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 23, 2009 2:05 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm not 100%
but I’m 100% convinced he should be given the shot.
Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...
by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 12:59 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm going to speak like Jim Tracy
Are we convinced that Smith can be a full-time player? Not 100% convinced no. But what we do know is in a significant sample size this year of 363 Plate Appearances he has out performed every single Rockies outfielder. Does Seth Smith deserve a chance to start next season? Yes he does. Is he a better player then Brad Hawpe right now? Yes, I think he is.
Brad Hawpe - Providing Air Conditioning to Catchers Everywhere.
Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg
by wolf213 on Sep 23, 2009 1:15 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
yeah this pretty much
Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...
by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 1:17 PM MDT up reply actions
Its harder then it looks.
Brad Hawpe - Providing Air Conditioning to Catchers Everywhere.
Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg
I'm nearly convinced
but would like to see some improved road numbers…but willing to take the chance. That said, Hawpe is and will be the starter for the rest of this season so this is probably all best for hot stove…
Good write-up RMN
Me likey stats and stuff. Let me ask you baseball guru types( I am not at all qualified to be a guru yet… still learning) Hypothetically, let’s say we know at a certain point, we will be facing the Cards in the first round and we know which pitchers we will be facing. Do MLB teams have statistics specialist who have an idea from 2000 or so pitches during a season, which pitch or pitches a certain player might use on 1st pitch, or full counts?
In other words, with 3 or 4 pitches that the guy may have in his arsenol, is there any patterns that are obvious? Even with all the diff variables, I bet if this info could be tracked and entered in a computer program, every pitcher would have a definate pitch he goes to with high percentage in certain situations.
yes and no
not so much a stats specialist, but this is the kind of stuff that advance scouts look into.
I’m sure it could be easily trackable with Pitch F/X, however.
Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...
by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions
actually, most teams do have stats specialists now.
Who input this sort of stuff into computers and keep track. Some are more into it than others.
Thx....I thought they might.
I bet the Yankees know more about the Red Sox than they know about themselves. lol.
Having little spies at all their games feverishly tracking everything.
by GoodOleBoyCo on Sep 23, 2009 1:07 PM MDT up reply actions
ah, see that's news to me
Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...
by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 1:08 PM MDT up reply actions
You know who's a terrible hitter with two outs? Juan Rincon.
I mean, seriously, he doesn’t have a single RBI with two outs all season! Don’t you agree that Rincon should be loaded into a cannon and shot directly into the sun?
Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.
now i have to wipe food off my screen
what exactly happened with that fanpost from last night?
Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 23, 2009 1:54 PM MDT up reply actions
I can still see them o_O
But clicking on em doesn’t work :-(
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 23, 2009 2:05 PM MDT up reply actions
They need to take hiding lessons
Since the broken links still show up :-/
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 23, 2009 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions
Ah ha, gotcha
I just figured when you guys do that the links would disappear from us normal folk. Must not be the same system as the hidden comments.
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 23, 2009 2:32 PM MDT up reply actions
Do you know where to get wOBA splits?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 23, 2009 2:03 PM MDT up reply actions
I could've done them longhand
but I was tired and didn’t really want to.
Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...
by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 2:04 PM MDT up reply actions
Long hand as in (2OBP+SLG)/3?
Or long hand as in weights for 1B, 2B, BB, etc? Including SB/CS?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 23, 2009 2:07 PM MDT up reply actions
The formula is what I was referring to, sans weights...and I was being facetious.
Great job RMN.
Eschew Obfuscation!
I don't use that formula for wOBA
I use Tango’s formula, and my next little project is to formulate the linear weights based on 2009, 2008+2009, 2007-2009, etc.
Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...
by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 4:19 PM MDT up reply actions
2008 vs 2009
Do you have a comparison from 2008 to 2009. It has long been my contention that performance with RISP regardless of the number of outs was a MAJOR reason the 2008 Rockies had such a bad year (not the only one though) and started so slow this year. I am at work right now so I can’t go look it up, but I am betting there is a pretty big difference.
What if the hokey pokey is what it is all about after all????

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