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Around SBN: 2012 Budweiser Shootout Entry List Released

The Rockies with 2 outs

Nothing is more gutwrenching than having a man in scoring position with one out and then watching your next batter pop out or something like that. You want the plate appearances to be productive, because we have a guy on base! We want that guy to score! If you aren't going to drive him in, at least ground out to the right side so the runner at 2B can at least advance to 3B, right?

But see, then we have 2 outs, and the inning is practically over. Because come on, we have 2 outs. We're gonna blow it. The Rockies are TERRIBLE at driving guys in with 2 outs.

Or are we?

Allow me to lay some learning on you.

Join me after the jump.

Star-divide

The Rockies are actually most successful with 1 out, posting an OPS of .806. That's pretty solid right there. They are least successful with 0 outs, posting a .758 OPS. We are mediumly successful with 2 outs, OPSing .782. It should also be noted that AVG/OBP/SLG are also ranked as such, so it's not like we slug 100 times harder with 2 outs or something, those all follow the rankings from above.

Split

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

0 outs

.256

.334

.424

.758

1 out

.267

.353

.453

.806

2 outs

.256

.340

.442

.782

So it's not as bad as the panicky selective memory may act. There are some concerns, however.

Split

GDP

SH

SF

SO

0 outs

52

52

17

369

1 out

52

19

37

372

2 outs

0

0

0

431

The most disturbing number there is the huge disparity in the number of strikeouts we have with 2 outs. I thought about this for a second, and then thought "wait, but what about the pitchers? If we're getting Danny HarOWNED then there's a good chance we're going 1-2-3, which means the pitcher is gonna get pelted with that 2-out K pretty often. That's gonna skew our numbers. While we'd love our pitchers to be able to hit with 2 outs, we're not really factoring their production into our situational hitting (well, for the sake of this analysis I'm not). So looking at the numbers WITHOUT the pitchers:

Split

SO

GDP

SH

SF

0 out

336

52

33

17

1 out

352

47

3

36

2 out

387

0

0

0

Well, that seems quite a bit more realistic, but the fact that we're less likely to punch out with only 1 out seems somewhat worrisome. It's like everyone gets into their own heads with 2 outs or something (don't think about an elephant).

The upside of our batters is that we're clearly experts on not grounding into double plays with 2 outs. Good to see us running everything out hard. At the same time, however, I want to see more fundamental baseball with 2 outs! Runner on 3B, you get that ball in the air! That's been insanely frustrating.

I'm totally kidding about that last part.

So with 2 outs, here are the batters we want to see at the plate:

Name

G

PA

HR

RBI

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jason Giambi

4

6

2

7

.750

.833

2.500

3.333

Dexter Fowler

75

117

1

18

.333

.419

.549

.968

Todd Helton

119

231

8

30

.323

.429

.518

.947

Seth Smith

67

96

2

15

.349

.417

.523

.940

Brad Hawpe

107

190

9

40

.284

.363

.544

.908

That's right, Whiffy McFailSuck is still our 2-out RBI leader. I really chalk that up to luck in the timing, but a .544 SLG is going to drive guys along the basepaths well one way or another. Those 9 dingers kind of make Hawpe still the 2-out guy. I mean, this doesn't really mean that much, maybe just something more to think about in lineup construction.

Obviosuly, the numbers are telling us that Dex is the best 2-out guy to have around, based on all the batting numbers. But based on the fact that Dex is typically leading off, he has the #8 and the pitcher batting in front of him, so I'm guessing that he doesn't get an awful lot of RBI opportunities. (Remember back in 2005 when Barmes had all them RBI as a leadoff hitter? That was kind of weird.)

Anyhow, because split stats are fun, we can get even clutcher and awesomer. We're going 2 outs with RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION.

Name

PA

AB

HR

RBI

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

Jason Giambi

4

3

1

5

.667

.750

2.000

2.750

Paul Phillips

5

2

0

1

.500

.800

.500

1.300

Yorvit Torrealba

21

16

0

11

.438

.571

.563

1.134

Chris Iannetta

43

33

4

17

.212

.395

.667

1.062

Dexter Fowler

57

47

1

16

.319

.439

.553

.992

Todd Helton

66

49

1

23

.347

.515

.469

.985

Brad Hawpe

86

72

5

30

.264

.384

.556

.939

Garrett Atkins

65

54

3

18

.278

.400

.500

.900

I kind of hesitated to even include Phillips in this, simply because he hasn't had an AB since like June, but whatever, he had a good stint.

Hawpe still leads the RBI leaderboard, but Torrealba's numbers are just insane. Granted, it's almost entirely singles, but a 1.134 OPS is not to be ignored.

So while the situation is never really ideal, having to produce with 2 outs, it's good to know that we have guys here who can get the job done.

Because we're gonna need them.

Comment 54 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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SSS!!!!!!

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 23, 2009 11:21 AM MDT reply actions  

shut up

everything I write is gonna be SSS and you know it. I can’t really say much definitively until the offseason.

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 11:25 AM MDT up reply actions  

what is SSS?

at the risk of sounding like an ignorant baseball fan…

by JaySantos on Sep 23, 2009 11:28 AM MDT up reply actions  

Small Sample Size

it’s a statistical thing.

The reason we bring it up is for when somebody says “Well, Quintanilla is 4-for-5 against Carpenter, he should start!” Well, as great as that .800 average is, what are the odds that it’s just completely luck, and that if we stretched it out over like 500 plate appearances against Carpenter, it’d look more like .185/.245/.300 or something paltry like that? Performances trend toward the mean.

It’s hard to discern much going forward with a small sample size. So basically, you could say “Small sample size!” and just disregard this entire article. But it has to give at some point so you can actually break things down.

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions  

ha, I made that up

he’s never actually faced Carp.

He is, however, 1-4 with 3BB vs Matt Cain!

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 11:39 AM MDT up reply actions  

and wait

3-6 vs Wainwright! With an OPS of 1.333!!!!!!

START HIM

by Muzia on Sep 23, 2009 11:40 AM MDT up reply actions  

I had to step away from my computer

Check what barmes has done v wainwright

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 11:44 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions  

identical to his numbers vs. Carp

Ugh. I think I could do better.

On the plus side, Deermeat hits Franklin pretty good! So…yeah…

by Muzia on Sep 23, 2009 11:49 AM MDT up reply actions  

I just had to

when you said “phillips had a good stint,” which was made up of one hit. That’s less hits than Darren Dreifort had HR in one day once. I’m just Josh Foggin you. :)

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 23, 2009 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions  

And actually

I’m of the opinion that randomness plays a significantly greater part in RISP hitting than any type of RISP skill. Sure, there are players with ice in their veins that can take a solid aggressive approach, and there are players that freeze up under pressure and K. But by and large, no way do I want Yorvit up with 2-out/RISP over Helton

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 23, 2009 11:54 AM MDT up reply actions  

I meant when Iannetta was down and Torrealba was in Venezuela

Phillips had a good stint.

Gosh.

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 12:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

Our catchers and Atkins are among the best with 2 outs and RISP?

Who woulda seen that coming?

Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!

by ShadowPenguin on Sep 23, 2009 11:38 AM MDT reply actions  

Heh...I feel a tad vindicated in my continuing support

of Hawpe and Atty to a lesser degree.

Yorvit Torrealba - name means RISPY HAWT!
Troy Tulowitzki- THE best shortstop in the game..nuff said..
Dexter Fowler - prowling CF, waiting to swoop into the playoffs!
Brad Hawpe- It's not funny anymore, GET SOME $%(*&*(^&* HITS AND RUNS!!!:/

by SDcat09 on Sep 23, 2009 12:07 PM MDT reply actions  

Whiffy McFailSuck

Thats a good one. This probably doesn’t belong here but there is really no where else to put it so I figured the counting Rocks post would be a good start.

My opposition to Brad Hawpe being in the lineup from this point on has really nothing to do with his offensive side of the game. He’s still a decent bat to have in the lineup, despite his horrid slump recently. It has more to do with the fact that Seth Smith will put up just as good as numbers and will allow Carlos Gonzales to slide over to Right Field. The improvement on Defense alone justifies the permanent benching, and future trade of Whiffy McFailSuck

Brad Hawpe - Providing Air Conditioning to Catchers Everywhere.

Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg

by wolf213 on Sep 23, 2009 12:17 PM MDT reply actions  

Actually if you look at it further

And take a look at each of our outfielders WAR (Wins above Replacement courtesy of fan graphs)

Hawpe: 1.2
Gonzalez: 1.9
Fowler: 1.0
Smith: 2.7

So basically Hawpe has been slightly more valuable then Fowler (and thats with a low defensive score for Fowler, which are suspect to begin with)

Next years OF should be Gonzalez Fowler Smith Left to Right. Trade Hawpe for next years version of Jason Marquis or Bentacourt.

Brad Hawpe - Providing Air Conditioning to Catchers Everywhere.

Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg

by wolf213 on Sep 23, 2009 12:29 PM MDT up reply actions  

Don't you mean

Right to Left? I would rather have Smith’s average or worse D in LF and CarGo’s range and cannon in Right.

by Hizilla on Sep 23, 2009 12:33 PM MDT up reply actions  

Yup thats what I meant.

So used to seeing Gonzalez in Center or Left that it was just a typo.

Brad Hawpe - Providing Air Conditioning to Catchers Everywhere.

Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg

by wolf213 on Sep 23, 2009 12:37 PM MDT up reply actions  

Figured as much

I assume that Seth will be in LF for the next couple nights, or at least until it warms up. Trying to do stuff on a tight hammy when it’s cold is asking for disaster.

by Hizilla on Sep 23, 2009 12:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

left field is much bigger than right in coors

i’d rather have cargo’s range in left.

his cannon is somewhat wasted in left.

by RockyMtnCat on Sep 23, 2009 1:17 PM MDT up reply actions  

You use cannons, range can be wasted

We had Holliday and Bichette in left over the years. And we survived. You don’t waste cannons in left though.

Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!

by ShadowPenguin on Sep 23, 2009 1:35 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good range prevents more runs than a strong throwing arm

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 2:03 PM MDT up reply actions  

Are we convinced

that Smith can be a full-time player?

by Muzia on Sep 23, 2009 12:54 PM MDT up reply actions  

I'm not 100%

but I’m 100% convinced he should be given the shot.

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 12:59 PM MDT up reply actions  

I'm going to speak like Jim Tracy

Are we convinced that Smith can be a full-time player? Not 100% convinced no. But what we do know is in a significant sample size this year of 363 Plate Appearances he has out performed every single Rockies outfielder. Does Seth Smith deserve a chance to start next season? Yes he does. Is he a better player then Brad Hawpe right now? Yes, I think he is.

Brad Hawpe - Providing Air Conditioning to Catchers Everywhere.

Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg

by wolf213 on Sep 23, 2009 1:15 PM MDT up reply actions   1 recs

yeah this pretty much

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 1:17 PM MDT up reply actions  

Nice Tracy impression...

You’ve got that conduct an interview of yourself thing down.

by Rox Girl on Sep 23, 2009 1:31 PM MDT up reply actions  

Its harder then it looks.

Brad Hawpe - Providing Air Conditioning to Catchers Everywhere.

Hey I'm on Youtube!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gAlLTZsGUg

by wolf213 on Sep 23, 2009 1:32 PM MDT up reply actions  

I'm nearly convinced

but would like to see some improved road numbers…but willing to take the chance. That said, Hawpe is and will be the starter for the rest of this season so this is probably all best for hot stove…

by Teekalong on Sep 23, 2009 4:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good write-up RMN

Me likey stats and stuff. Let me ask you baseball guru types( I am not at all qualified to be a guru yet… still learning) Hypothetically, let’s say we know at a certain point, we will be facing the Cards in the first round and we know which pitchers we will be facing. Do MLB teams have statistics specialist who have an idea from 2000 or so pitches during a season, which pitch or pitches a certain player might use on 1st pitch, or full counts?
In other words, with 3 or 4 pitches that the guy may have in his arsenol, is there any patterns that are obvious? Even with all the diff variables, I bet if this info could be tracked and entered in a computer program, every pitcher would have a definate pitch he goes to with high percentage in certain situations.

by GoodOleBoyCo on Sep 23, 2009 12:59 PM MDT reply actions  

yes and no

not so much a stats specialist, but this is the kind of stuff that advance scouts look into.

I’m sure it could be easily trackable with Pitch F/X, however.

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 1:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

actually, most teams do have stats specialists now.

Who input this sort of stuff into computers and keep track. Some are more into it than others.

by Rox Girl on Sep 23, 2009 1:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thx....I thought they might.

I bet the Yankees know more about the Red Sox than they know about themselves. lol.
Having little spies at all their games feverishly tracking everything.

by GoodOleBoyCo on Sep 23, 2009 1:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

ah, see that's news to me

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 1:08 PM MDT up reply actions  

You know who's a terrible hitter with two outs? Juan Rincon.

I mean, seriously, he doesn’t have a single RBI with two outs all season! Don’t you agree that Rincon should be loaded into a cannon and shot directly into the sun?

Staying on the sunny side of Blake Street since 1993.
The Shawn Chacon Experience - Life as a Rockies fan, one day at a time: Because we're all still recovering from those nine blown saves.

by Franchise26 on Sep 23, 2009 1:47 PM MDT reply actions  

now i have to wipe food off my screen

what exactly happened with that fanpost from last night?

Funny Dog to Make Life Worthwhile

by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 23, 2009 1:54 PM MDT up reply actions  

I can still see them o_O

But clicking on em doesn’t work :-(

Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!

by ShadowPenguin on Sep 23, 2009 2:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

They need to take hiding lessons

Since the broken links still show up :-/

Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!

by ShadowPenguin on Sep 23, 2009 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions  

Ah ha, gotcha

I just figured when you guys do that the links would disappear from us normal folk. Must not be the same system as the hidden comments.

Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!

by ShadowPenguin on Sep 23, 2009 2:32 PM MDT up reply actions  

Do you know where to get wOBA splits?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 23, 2009 2:03 PM MDT up reply actions  

I could've done them longhand

but I was tired and didn’t really want to.

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 2:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

Long hand as in (2OBP+SLG)/3?

Or long hand as in weights for 1B, 2B, BB, etc? Including SB/CS?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 23, 2009 2:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

I don't use that formula for wOBA

I use Tango’s formula, and my next little project is to formulate the linear weights based on 2009, 2008+2009, 2007-2009, etc.

Mike McCoy Status: FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seth Smith Status: How do you like me now?!
Chris Iannetta Status: Yeah...see you in the Spring, big guy...

by Andrew Martin on Sep 23, 2009 4:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

2008 vs 2009

Do you have a comparison from 2008 to 2009. It has long been my contention that performance with RISP regardless of the number of outs was a MAJOR reason the 2008 Rockies had such a bad year (not the only one though) and started so slow this year. I am at work right now so I can’t go look it up, but I am betting there is a pretty big difference.

What if the hokey pokey is what it is all about after all????

by FlyAway on Sep 23, 2009 2:05 PM MDT reply actions  

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