Phillies rule the roost in NL's three season standings, Rockies still need to do some climbing
The Rockies current run of success started with their surprise Rocktober 2007 run. While some thought that was a fluke, especially after the big setback suffered by the team in 2008, with another likely playoff push in 2009, the Rockies have established their legitimacy as perennial contenders in the National League.
Still, a look at a bigger multi-year picture reveals that the Rockies aren't quite at a real peak in their success cycle just yet. Whether they actually get to elite status will be determined by the 2010 and 2011 teams, but for right now, it seems the Rockies are on a tier below the best teams in the National League.
Here are the updated three year NL Standings:
Some observations after the jump....
First of all, the tiers of separation in the league start to stand out with this wide lens. During this three season period, three NL teams (Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Chicago) have been at some sort of competitive peak. Three or four more teams (St. Louis, Colorado, Milwaukee and probably New York) have been in a tier below that where they are competitive most seasons but not quite dominant, and then there's the mediocre Arizona/Atlanta/Florida group below them that act as spoilers, mostly. It's looking more and more like the Diamondbacks P-thag defying division win in 2007 was more the fluke than the Rockies unlikely run to the World Series that year.
Going further down, the Astros would have to rank as the NL's most disappointing performer relative to their payroll, and then the standings dip into the league fodder category, a place where the Rockies were themselves not long ago (we've switched places with the Padres on the success cycle, it seems).
Hardware:
WS Trophy: Philly
NL Pennants: Colorado, Philly
Division Flags (if the standings hold as they seem to): Philly 3, Chicago and Los Angeles 2 each, Arizona and St. Louis 1 each
Wild Card appearances: Colorado 2, Milwaukee 1
Records for playoff series: Philadelphia 11-6, Colorado 7-4, Los Angeles 4-4, Arizona 3-4, Milwaukee 1-3, Chicago 0-6.
Looking at the individual player trophy winners for 2007 and 2008 also largely reinforces the hierarchy mentioned above.
Thanks largely to that under-performing 2008 squad, we can say that the Rockies so far in this competitive foothill have been a good but not great NL team. With the pennant in 2007, the Rockies really have been a lucky NL team relative to the other teams on their tier unless St. Louis gets a similar NLCS win this season, but Colorado has almost as good a shot at getting another pennant themselves. Chicago, with only the NL Central flags for 2007 and 2008 and an 0-6 record in the playoffs to show for being the second best team in the league in this span have been unlucky, but in a way, so have the Dodgers thus far.
Philadelphia has had the fortune of running through their success cycle while all of their divisional rivals are either rebuilding or being run ineptly. That 28 game gap over the second place team in the NL East is really quite impressive, but it's not so much a credit to Philadelphia's strength as it is an indictment of the weakness of the NL East on the whole.
The National League West has been the only thing standing in the way of a Phillies dynasty in the NL (that's a pretty telling indication of the league's mediocrity given that Philly will only average just over 90 wins/season in that "dynasty"). You could look at the volume of playoff games as an indication of this, 26 for the NL West, 17 for the East (all Philly), 10 for the Central. The long slog through lots of tough pitching in divisional play works as a decent prep for the playoffs for NL West teams. Facing down Cliff Lee and Adam Wainwright doesn't seem quite so daunting after having faced Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf, Ubaldo Jimenez and Dan Haren so frequently.
The Phillies and Rockies are as of this moment slated to face off against each other again in the NLDS in 2009, and there will be some pride on the line. The Rockies could prove themselves king of the upstarts by beating the defending World Champs again, as well as making a statement that they are ready to rise to that next tier, while Philadelphia will want payback for 2007 and to cement a claim as the NL's team of the decade (probably against St. Louis) in the aughts.
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As much as I want to believe the 3-year standings show Arizona is a fluke
their record has been completely weighed down by this season. Parra is been fine in LF, but you have to wonder where that team would have been had they not essentially lost CoJack and Webb for the season. Perhaps AJ Hinch wouldn’t be manager and they’d still have FLopez and Garland.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 24, 2009 1:44 PM MDT reply actions
But what is this season for the Diamondbacks?
You could say the same thing about the Rockies (that our three year total was completely weighed down by 2008) but the thing is 2008 counted for us, 2009 counts for Arizona. The Snakes are still held in high esteem mostly by overestimates of the abilities of Stephen Drew and Chris Young. Justin Upton’s a stud, Mark Reynolds is a valuable slugger, but those other two parts of what was to be their central core just haven’t materialized the way they hoped. Where they go from here kind of depends on how much impact their next wave is going to have, if Miguel Montero doesn’t get figured out by NL pitchers and Brandon Allen develops and Jarrod Parker has an immediate impact in 2010, they can have a similar bounce back to respectability as the Rockies did with Fowler, CarGo, Hammel et al in 2009, but otherwise it seems like they’ll only get back to that three year .500 average. This is my guess where they finish next season.
This is true
Ifs and buts….it’s just that the Diamondbacks’ bad season in the 3-year span could be their second worst season ever. It could be a big outsider, or just a better indicator/regression to actual talent. There’s no way to explain Young going in the tank and Drew taking a step back though…
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 24, 2009 2:45 PM MDT up reply actions
I realize
that it is close to being a done deal.
/knocks on wood
but Colorado does not have 2 WC appearances in the last 3 years.
Other than that – cool to see this broken out over a few years.
And Los Angeles doesn't have two NL West titles either,
I did write that this was pending the standings not changing. By the way everybody, I wrote this yesterday afternoon so the standings don’t reflect last night’s games.
This was very hard to read..
I thought we were a better team than it seems. I know I am a real newbie to all things baseball, but I really did think we were closer to the “elite” teams than we are at present.
Well, if not for the terrible 2008 season
When we went 74-88. If we just went .500 that year (7 more victories), we’d actually be tied with the Dodgers over this 3 year period.
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 24, 2009 4:01 PM MDT up reply actions
My post tomorrow should make you feel better
The Rockies are easily the youngest of the teams currently qualifying for the playoffs, meaning our climb is really just starting while the other teams figure to start slipping next season.
"other teams figure to start slipping next season"
That’s what free agency is for
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 24, 2009 7:54 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
To some degree, yes, but unless they use it like the MFY,
Free agency isn’t going to save them. I don’t think any NL team, or non-Yankee AL team has that kind of money, but I’m not sure how much the Ricketts are willing to go out on a limb with the Cubs. The Dodgers and Phillies figure to take steps backward next season.
Phillies in first round?
For some reason, I thought it was likely that we would play the Cardinals in the NLDS. Is it looking like the Phillies now?
Whichever one has the better record I think...
Still yet to be determined, they’re only 1 game different in wins.
Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!
by ShadowPenguin on Sep 24, 2009 4:05 PM MDT up reply actions
line ups posted tonight
http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2009/09/24/iannetta-gets-rare-start-vs-pads/
yet again the big lefty bats on the bench vs a lefty…ugh do i have to continue to see Garrett Outkins play the hot corner…shoot me
we seem to have gotten over that HURDLE
MAGIC NUMBER: 7!




















