Patience and Plate Discipline: What has it gotten us?

by Andrew Martin on Sep 9, 2009 11:00 AM MDT in Counting Rocks Comment 46 comments

Ryan Spilborghs sees 3.99 P/PA. Does this help his offensive numbers?

It's the top of the 8^th and the Rockies are down by 1 with a runner on 3B with 1 out. Ian Stewart is at the plate. The pitcher takes the sign, and burns a 94 mph fastball right down the middle.

THAT'S A PITCH TO HIT, STEWART

What on earth is he waiting for?

I do not spilly him taking that pitch

We've seen it so many times. The Rockies wait on pitches early in the AB and find themselves suddenly at a 2-2 count when all they need is to make good contact with the ball. Instead of getting the hit on the 1-0 count when a 24 year old pitcher desperately trying to make up for the leadoff walk throws anything that will cross the plate, we're sitting around waiting for...something even better, I suppose.

These problems drive us insane in the game threads. They destroy situational hitting, and spark massive debates between baseball fundamentalists and the Sabrmetrics crowd, arguing the merits of a season-long body of work and the "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately" analyses.

Join after the jump as we look at the hard data.

The ugly facts are as such:

The Rockies (as of late evening 9/6/09) lead the majors in Pitches per Plate Appearance (P/PA) with 4.00.

The Rockies are 4^th in the majors in strikeouts (the bad way).

The Rockies are 25^th in the majors in terms of making contact (Contact%).

However, on the flip side of the coin, we need to also look at these facts:

The Rockies are 4^th in the majors in walks.

The Rockies are 22^nd in the majors in terms of swinging at pitches outside of the zone (the good way).

The Rockies are 24^th in the majors in GIDPs (the good way).

Finally, the most important facts we need to look at:

The Rockies are 6^th in the majors in Runs per Game (R/G).

The Rockies are 1^st in the NL Wild Card standings, 2^nd in the NL West.

Now the tough part about this is trying to draw a straight line between the above listed facts. Are the Rockies a top-rated offensive team (2^nd in the NL behind Philly) because we lead the majors in P/PA? (For the record, Philly is 11^th in P/PA.)

Well, the answer is that there is no answer.

Statistically, there isn't a strong correlation between Pitches per Plate Appearance and Runs or Runs Created. I plotted the P/PA for each of the 30 teams against Runs per Game, and found out that there was a decent positive correlation between the data.

To build on that, I plotted the P/PA with a form of Runs Created for every player in MLB with 100+ PA. Again, there's a positive, but weak, correlation.

So what these graphs are telling us is that P/PA is a good thing. They trend toward the correlation we like to see: that more P/PA results in more runs, which will hopefully result in more wins.

What's also interesting to look at in this study is how the Rockies perform on various counts:

Split	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GDP
First Pitch	513	23	0	0	.340	.347	.558	.905	20
1-0 Count	337	21	0	0	.327	.328	.632	.961	9
2-0 Count	116	10	0	0	.396	.383	.775	1.157	5
3-0 Count	119	1	111	0	.286	.950	.857	1.807	0
0-1 Count	453	19	0	0	.304	.306	.514	.820	9
1-1 Count	443	23	0	0	.357	.356	.624	.981	10
2-1 Count	272	11	0	0	.303	.313	.530	.843	6
3-1 Count	293	8	173	0	.345	.730	.714	1.445	2
0-2 Count	458	6	0	215	.150	.154	.221	.375	11
1-2 Count	779	16	0	352	.194	.199	.312	.510	11
2-2 Count	759	10	0	326	.213	.216	.328	.544	9
Full Count	808	20	279	176	.251	.509	.430	.938	6

The bolded numbers are the highs. We obviously walk the most on a 3-0 count, but it's interesting to note that we strike out the most on a 1-2 count rather than a 0-2 - we don't bite as much on that first waste pitch. However, it's also interesting to note that we hit the most home runs split between the first pitch swinging and a 1-1 count, while we also ground into the most DPs on that first pitch as well. 1-2 counts and 2-2 counts are right out. We punch out the most on the 1-2 count, but we hit the worst on an 0-2 count - again, which makes sense. After the 0-2 count, the Rockies have a combined .485 OPS. We also walk a lot more than strike out on a full count.

That said, we're still a team that walks a lot and strikes out a lot. But tell you something you didn't know, right?

Split	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	GDP
Three Balls	1220	29	563	176	.268	.605	.486	1.091	8
Two Strikes	2804	52	279	1069	.204	.286	.325	.611	37

Only the Yankees have more Three-Ball PA than do the Rockies. However, nobody has more Two-Strike PA than do the Rockies. Again, hard to infer that working these counts is really doing much for us in terms of direct offensive results (that is, high P/PA does not mean high wOBA).

The one thing we CAN infer, however, is that higher P/PA leads to shorter outings by starters, eventually, and hopefully can result in something to capitalize on. Looking at the inning-by-inning batting production, the 4-6 is the hottest 3-inning chunk for the Rockies, which lends credence to the concept of wearing down pitchers. Observe:

Split	G	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Innings 1-3	138	51	193	370	.252	.337	.427	.764
Innings 4-6	138	68	181	326	.277	.352	.484	.836
Innings 7-9	138	47	178	351	.259	.344	.431	.775

We don't really walk any extra in any inning group, but we clearly hit better in the middle innings - lining up nicely when a starting pitcher starts to wear out.

Based on the correlations above and the counts that the Rockies seem to be most productive on, it's hard to really draw a line between everything. We clearly are a patient team, taking the most P/PA and walking the 4th most, however, we also strike out more than just about anyone. We wear down pitchers well, and capitalize in the middle innings. I don't want to put TOOOO much credence on the high discipline numbers, as we can't necessarily say one causes the other, we can't say that our high P/PA makes us a top offensive club.

But that 5th in the majors in runs scored and 6th in R/G? We can hang our hat on those jussssst fine.

Oh and thanks to PF for the idea to write this thing.

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Maybe not a direct line,

but like you said, wearing them down means we beat up on a tired pitcher for a little bit, instead of going from fresh starter to fresh bullpen.

I likey.

"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill

by Bryce on Sep 9, 2009 11:24 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

And great article, btw.

Very interesting.

by Bryce on Sep 9, 2009 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

thank you

I get frustrated with studies that don’t reveal anything, like this one, and we have to just kind of step back to anecdotal evidence.

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 9, 2009 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

sometimes not proving anything IS revealing

Even if its only that it can’t be proven.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 9, 2009 11:47 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

go check the bottom of the rockpile, I want your input

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 9, 2009 11:48 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good write-up

They seem patient all the time but it does tend to get annoying when the pitcher is constantly throwing strikes. The walks are good but it seems they take too many pitches to get behind in the count and thus the junk can be thrown and the players tend to strikeout. Patience is good but it does have it’s drawbacks.

"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK

by jrockies on Sep 9, 2009 11:59 AM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe the lesson

Is that taking pitches is good for some hitters, but not others. I’d be interested to see whom those data points represent on the P/PA vs. RC graph. Guys like Todd Helton, Adam Dunn and Kevin Youkilis see a lot of pitches and produce a lot of runs because they have good eyes and good bat control so they can foul off borderline pitches. Maybe the lesson here is that hitting coaches shouldn’t treat all batters the same, and that working counts doesn’t work for everyone.

Good analysis by the way.

by controlled_slide on Sep 9, 2009 12:15 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice article.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 9, 2009 12:34 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

thank you

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 9, 2009 12:42 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've seen teams do this for a long time now

and they’re usually successful. Why? Because the opposing team, like every team out there, puts there best pitchers in the SP lineup. Get past them, and usually you’ll be successful against their BP.

RMN, do a study on the Rockies SP going deep into games. Seeing how many times the opponent is swinging early in the count, so the pitch count doesn’t get too out of hand by the 6th inning or so and I’ll bet everyone can see why the Rockies are being successful this year.
Baylor believes in patience, Cockrell, the last two years, believed in being agressive and swinging at pitches early in the count, under the philosophy that the pitcher would be trying to get ahead in the count and would be getting his pitches over the plate more.
I think that last part is what’s wrong with CDI and Stewart. They’ve probably always been told to swing early, and now they are having a problem adjusting to hitting with a count.

The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.

by rockieprogress on Sep 9, 2009 12:44 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

I am curious

It would be interesting to see a breakdown of P/PA per Inning, as well as a distribution of pitch counts by inning. My hypothesis, based on RMN’s data, is that they’re looking at more pitches in innings 1-3, and have a good idea of what a SP is doing the second time through the lineup in innings 4-6. No big surprise there, I guess.

What I’m thinking is we’re uber-patient the first time through and become a bit more aggressive the second/third time through. This also makes me question whether Baylor and Cockrell represent both extremes of hitting philosophy, and perhaps a more moderated/blended philosophy is indicated.

I’d also love to see some data on backward-K numbers. I remember pulling my hair out early in the season over how many times we struck out looking. That seems to have gone down substantially. It might add insight into the hitting philosophy.

by SoxRoxFan on Sep 9, 2009 1:40 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd love to just have the data

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 9, 2009 1:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Avg Pitches per inning and Avg against the Rockies - Avg IP/Avg IP against the Rockies

This probably just muddies the waters, but it shows the average of pitches the top pitchers in the NL West throw per inning and the average pitches per inning they throw against the Rockies. Except for Barry Zito there is an increase in pitches thrown, but the average number of innings pitched remains the same. Which could mean that the pitchers are getting extended against the Rockies beyond their normal pitch counts.

DODGERS
Wolf 15.43/15.90 – 6.1/6.1
Billingsley 16.45/16.80 – 6.1/6.2
Kershaw 17.67/17.60 – 5.2/5.1

GIANTS
Lincecum 15.14/16.50 – 7.2/7.1
Cain 15.19/17.60 – 6.1/6.0
Zito 16.70/15.00 – 5.9/7.0

DBACKS
Haren 15.06/16.10 – 7.0/6.1
Davis 16.89/18.40 – 6.0/4.1
Petit 16.70/19.90 – 4.2/3.2

PADRES
Geer 15.92/16.20 – 5.4/6.0
Gaudin 17.44/17.30 – 5.1/5.1

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by Charlie77 on Sep 9, 2009 5:52 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't seem to be the case for Stewart, at least

I think that last part is what’s wrong with CDI and Stewart. They’ve probably always been told to swing early, and now they are having a problem adjusting to hitting with a count.

Several folks reported earlier in the season (Stewart’s had so many dry spells now that it’s hard to tell them all apart) that coaches were working with Stewart to get him to swing earlier in the count.

Also, Iannetta has a good eye and had pretty good walk rates in all his minor league stops, so I think that’s always been his style.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Sep 9, 2009 2:35 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have always wondered why most pitchers

usually throw a fastball (strike) for the first pitch. Then someone like Tulo gets benched for going after the first pitch. Seems like a conundrum.to me.

The" butterfly effect ", which theorizes that a change in something seemingly innocuous, such as a flap of a butterfly's wings, may have unexpected larger consequences in the future, such as . . .winning the World Series.

by butterfly on Sep 9, 2009 12:52 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

It's situational

Tulo was benched for swinging at a high first pitch with runners on after the team had had meetings about being more patient. Sometimes going against the situation just can’t be helped – not every player can change their approach from that with which they’re most comfortable. Tulo wants to swing at first pitches if he thinks they’re in his zone. Stewart and Iannetta like to take pitches they think they can’t handle.

Pitchers try to get ahead with fastballs for several reasons. For most pitchers, it’s the pitch they can throw strikes with. Most MLB pitchers also have good fastballs, so even though many batters will look for it, they’re still not easy to hit. I also suspect most pitchers are more successful when getting ahead with fastballs and then setting up their breaking/offspeed stuff rather than pitching backwards.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Sep 9, 2009 2:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

for the explanation. I’m reading and learning !! hehe

by butterfly on Sep 9, 2009 3:48 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is something that I find interesting in the data

We’re striking out at a rate of over 40% of the time in a pitcher’s count (0-2, 1-2, 2-2), and only 22% (about half as much) when there’s a full count. If you combine this with the BA 0- and 1-strike counts, tells me that they’re taking better cuts and getting better results when they’re more aggressive, particularly in fastball counts. Conversely, pitchers’ counts may indicate that they swinging at more pitches just outside the zone or filthy breaking ball/off-speed counts in a more defensive manner.

So there’s an interesting double-edged sword to high P/PA for the Rockies this year (and perhaps other teams past or present). It may wear SPs down, but it could be suggested that it also leads to less-aggressive swings that lead to more outs.

This is probably another way of saying what you just said. All said, great article.

by SoxRoxFan on Sep 9, 2009 1:03 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Funny I was thinking along the same lines

I was looking at the exact same stats yesterday, but specifically at Clint Barmes instead of the whole team. I came to similar conclusions, with the added thought that this strategy doesn’t work for Barmes as well as it does for some of the other players. He seems to always be taking a strike (or fouling off a pitch), and needs to get more aggressive/productive on hitters’ counts.

And here’s my quote from my fanpost from Monday. I’m definitely on board that working the pitch count is one of the team’s biggest strengths overall. I also think that for some people (Barmes, Stewart, Ianetta) maybe they are being a little too passive on early strikes.

Homer Bailey had a great start, and kept the Rockies at bay and off balance. But, true to form, the Rockies used what I think is their greatest strength and worked the pitch count. Bailey hit 117 pitches in the bottom of the sixth inning in a game he had only given up one run. Consequently, he had to come out, exposing the soft underbelly that is the Reds middle relief. If Bailey had been able to pitch into the seventh or eighth, the game could have ended much differently.

by amoeba on Sep 9, 2009 1:16 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

The Padres are all over Zito so far

3-0 in the 3rd, with 60 pitches thrown by Zito.

by ddavis539 on Sep 9, 2009 2:25 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Let’s get a win tonight Rox

"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK

by jrockies on Sep 9, 2009 2:41 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Typo?

but it’s interesting to note that we strike out the most on a 1-2 count rather than a 1-0 – we don’t bite as much on that first waste pitch.

I assume you meant on a 0-2 count? The numbers in the chart are results for various counts when the next pitch ended the AB, right? (E.g., the 0-2 row covers all the events when that 3rd pitch is whiffed or put into play – thus, no walks.) If that’s the case, the team strikes out at a slightly higher rate on the pitch after a 0-2 count, compared to the pitch after a 1-2 count.

Leave Dexter alone! You're lucky he even performs for you!

by FooMan on Sep 9, 2009 2:33 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah I meant 0-2

I was finishing this late last night. I’ll edit it here.

The charts I used indicated the next pitch, not all the possible following ones.

The idea is that the 0-2 pitch resulted in 0-3 less often than the 1-2 pitch resulted in a 1-3.

B-R has all the results for splits AFTER 0-2, 1-2, etc.

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 9, 2009 3:02 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Giants losing 3-2 now

bottom 5

"I've never known a man worth his salt who in the long run, deep down in his heart, didn't appreciate the grind, the discipline... I firmly believe that any man's finest hour - this greatest fulfillment to all he holds dear is that moment when he has worked his heart out in a good cause and lies exhausted on the field of battle, victorious." - Vince Lombardi

by nodakroxfan on Sep 9, 2009 3:03 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

wrong thread?

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 9, 2009 3:04 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

We could tie it to this thread this way

Due to their lack of Discipline at the plate, the Giants are losing 3-2 in the 5th. Their batters swing at first pitches frequently and usually get out with less than 3 pitches thrown. The opposing pitcher only had to throw 18 pitches to retire the first 6 batters, even though he gave up a base hit in the 2nd.

by ddavis539 on Sep 9, 2009 3:07 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

gracias

i just post whatever im thinking wherever i’m at

by nodakroxfan on Sep 9, 2009 3:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

3.60 P/PA

lowest in the majors. Tied for 2nd lowest R/G in the majors, 3.99.

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by Andrew Martin on Sep 9, 2009 3:08 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's important

to note that we are 1st in runs scored in the NL and by a decent margin. The Phillies are only 16 runs behind us, but after that nobody is within 33 runs. The AL will always hold the top few spots in runs scored given the DH.

I find it interesting that when a team is in “rally mode” the Manager usually has everyone take until they get a strike. If that is the best way to score a lot of runs, why not do that innings 1-7 as well? The data shows that we still hit a decent number of HR’s with 2 strike counts, and the more pitches you see, the greater odds to see other offense-creators such as past balls and wild pitches. While it is incredibly frustrating to see us look at a strike with 0/1 outs and a guy on third, I love our high P/PA.

BTW, I loved seeing us manufacture a couple runs last night, both sacs being hit when Helton and CarGo were well ahead in the count.

Since the Dawn of Time, only two bearded men are worthy of being synonymous with the Rocky Mountains: Jeremiah Johnson and Todd Helton

by DeRock on Sep 9, 2009 3:26 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

passed balls, not "past balls"

My $400/week for English lessons has yet to pay dividends

Since the Dawn of Time, only two bearded men are worthy of being synonymous with the Rocky Mountains: Jeremiah Johnson and Todd Helton

by DeRock on Sep 9, 2009 3:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well go over to MCC

they’ll help you use all the colorful english language you can stand, and its FREE…

The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.

by rockieprogress on Sep 10, 2009 12:43 AM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Holy Moly...

I have 6,100 posts….since July 29 09….I’m scared

Yorvit! GOT STREAK?!
Hawpeye needs to get some hits and runs.

by SDcat09 on Sep 9, 2009 4:17 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

They rack up fast on game threads!

in fact I need to stop by on those more so I can get 10,000 before the end of the season

by Redhawk on Sep 9, 2009 4:34 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

You haven't hit 6000 yet on PR, though.

by holly96 on Sep 9, 2009 4:44 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

PADRES WIN 4-2

MCC posters curl up in fetal position…

Rockies 3.5 clear of Giants and 3.5 behind Dodgers pending tonight’s games

by Rock Oax on Sep 9, 2009 4:36 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Yessssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss!

just thought I needed to chime in

by Mr.Clean on Sep 9, 2009 4:42 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's hope the Padres wake up

during their off day and remember that they really aren’t that good of a team

by Rock Oax on Sep 9, 2009 4:47 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

MLBN talking about FranKie Mo

Yorvit! GOT STREAK?!
Hawpeye needs to get some hits and runs.

by SDcat09 on Sep 9, 2009 4:53 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

What are they saying?

"A fine beer may be judged with only one sip, but it's better to be thoroughly sure."
-Czech Proverb

by NewMexicanSteven on Sep 9, 2009 4:57 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

about his deception, movement and speed

that basically he’s awesome :) And Dan Plesac is happy that he doesn’t have to call us
“The Rockies Horror Pitching Show” anymore…lol

Yorvit! GOT STREAK?!
Hawpeye needs to get some hits and runs.

by SDcat09 on Sep 9, 2009 5:03 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rockies horror pitching show

I have to admit that is damned clever. +1 for that but -1 for implyping morales has always been and always will be a reliever

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 9, 2009 5:16 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Yet, hardly original

An Independent story dated August 24, 1993 is the first use I can find on Google, and I bet it dates back even further.

Witty .sig goes here.

by scareduck on Sep 9, 2009 6:12 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you hit on the most important aspect

of working the count, namely, that starters get tired, start throwing bad pitches and we get into the bullpen early. That is huge when we play teams like SF with great starters and errr not so great relievers.
I think pitchers don’t really love Coors to begin with and when they have to throw 20+ pitches per inning it just wears them down that much quicker.

by Rock Oax on Sep 9, 2009 4:56 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

Altitude will do that to a person...

I usually argue against that when it comes to athletes as they are well conditioned machines but having our batters make pitchers throw 20+ per inning does make the pitcher wear out faster both physically and mentally.

"We made too many wrong mistakes." ~Yogi Berra
"The ballplayer who loses his head, who can't keep his cool, is worse than no ballplayer at all." ~Lou Gehrig
JFK

by jrockies on Sep 9, 2009 5:23 PM MDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strangely on subject

Is this article, Increase in strikeouts is A-OK from Jeff Passan on Yahoo.
Quick quote:

Yahoo! Sports analyzed the past full decade of games and found that… …there is no connection between the number of times a team strikes out in a season and the number of runs it averages per game.

Gladly sharing a name with Dexter Fowler!

by ShadowPenguin on Sep 9, 2009 5:18 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs

This is the same argument I used to read about all the time

as (principally) an Angels fan vs. the A’s, who until recently were the Angels’ main competition in the AL West. Don’t like the RISP/RISP2 hitting philosophy? You could starve to death on the basepaths without clutch hitting.

But clutch hitting is not a provable skill.

Witty .sig goes here.

by scareduck on Sep 9, 2009 6:09 PM MDT reply actions 0 recs