Why 2010 will not be like 2008.

In the Sunday edition of the Rockpile, RoxGirl touched on a topic that's a little sensitive to Rockies fans.  It's a topic we all would like to avoid but it's also a thought that has probably crossed each and every one of our minds; "what if the 2010 Rockies end up just like the 2008 Rockies?".  Injured, underachieving, embarrassed, and playing meaningless games in late September.  It seems like a fair question to ask right?  Both teams are coming off extremely successful seasons in which the Rockies clinched a playoff birth after a slow start, both teams saw the front office stand pat (for the most part) during the off-season, and both teams are relying on young and still somewhat unproven players to fill big rolls on the team.

Fear not fellow Rowbots because that's where the similarities end.  Is it possible that the 2010 Rockies could be like the 2008?  Sure it's baseball, anythings possible; but it's highly unlikely.  Join me after the jump to find out five major reasons why.  

1) Injuries

The 2008 edition of the Rockies had to deal with the injury bug all season long.  It wasn't just that the team was never fully healthy, it was that the roster turned into a revolving door of players.  During the 2008 season only four Rockies' players appeared in more than 107 games.  While this may not sound significant, it means that only four everyday starters did not miss at least a third of the season; compare that with last year's Rockies in which eight players appeared in at least 133 games and it starts to show how depleted the 08 version of the team became.  I understand the 09 team was lucky when it came to injuries but even the most pessimistic Rockies fan can't expect a repeat of 08 in which Tulo, Helton, Holliday, Barmes, Hawpe, Spilborghs, and Francis all spent time on the DL.  (Note: Several other players went on the DL too, these were just the productive ones)

What would need to happen to the 2010 Rockies to be like 2008?

Let's see, the Rockies projected everyday starters are Helton, Barmes, Tulo, Stewart, Iannetta, Cargo, Fowler, and Hawpe/Smith.  Pick a random six and imagine what would happen if they all went on the DL at some point in the season.

2) Stars that didn't Shine

In 2008 the Rockies were counting on Francis to be their Ace, Tulo to be their leader, and Helton to be Helton.  None of these things came close to happening.  Francis's win total fell from 17 to 4 while his ERA and FIP soared to 5.01 and 4.81 respectively, Tulo when he wasn't on the DL had an OPS of .732, and Todd Helton had what was unquestionably the worst year of his career hitting 64 points below his career average and 215 points below his career OPS.  Yes all three of these were injury related and this point is connected to point number one, but it's important to understand how poorly these players played when they were not on the DL.  It's very possible that when their careers are over, Francis, Tulo, and Helton will all be able to say that 2008 was their worst season ever production wise. 

What would need to happen to the 2010 Rockies to be like 2008?

The Rockies would have to get close to nothing out of Tulo, Helton, and one of their top three starters.  I'd say this is highly unlikely.

3) Ubaldo wasn't Ubaldo yet

While Ubaldo Jimenez was part of the magical 2007 Rocktober run, 2008 was still his first full season in the major leagues.  By all accounts, Jimenez had a typical year for a young pitcher with a high upside; one that had its fair share of growing pains.  By the end of June, Ubaldo was 2-8 with a 4.71 ERA and had only pitched more than 6 innings four times.  (I would use more Saber stats here but they are not available in the game log feature of baseball reference)  While he did recover and post strong numbers in the second half of the season, the Rockies as a team were already in too big of a hole to dig out of.

What would need to happen to the 2010 Rockies to be like 2008?

Ubaldo would probably have to get injured for half of the season to get a lack of production like this.  While Ubaldo is a slow starter there would be no reason to expect him to pitch like this for three months.  The Rockies have a pitcher in Ubaldo going into 2010 that they did not have in 2008.  Sure Francis was considered the Ace but Ubaldo has the ability to become a truly dominant starter.  One that opponents see on the schedule and say "Crap!!!  Were probably going to lose that game."

4) Pitching, Pitching, and more Pitching

The Rockies are in soooooooo much better shape pitching wise going into 2010 than they were in 2008.  On top of the Francis injury/ineffectiveness and Ubaldo's inexperience, the 2008 Rockies had to deal with a serious lack of pitching depth.  Without any talent at the bottom of the rotation, Rockie fans were left to watch in horror as Mark Redman, Glendon Rusch, Greg Reynolds, Livan Hernandez, Kip Wells, Franklin Morales, and Valerio De Los Santos (Who the Hell?) all made MULTIPLE  starts.  That's right, the 2008 Rockies were so short on pitching that they actually let all of these tools start more than once.

What would need to happen to the 2010 Rockies to be like 2008?

ALL of the potential back of the rotation guys such as Jeff Francis, Greg Smith, Franklin Morales (again), Jhoulys Chacin.........ect would have to be this much of an atrocity.  Again highly unlikely.

5) Willy Taveras and his God Awful .604 OPS won't be patrolling center on the 2010 Edition of the team.

Remember earlier when I said that only four Rockies played in more than 107 games in 2008?  Unfortunately one of those players was Willy Taveras who somehow managed to make his way into 133 the Rockies played that season.  While he did have 68 stolen bases, (which was even more amazing considering his .308 OBP) no amount of speed on the base paths can ever come close to making up for that .604 OPS.  Sorry Willy it just can't.

What would need to happen to the 2010 Rockies to be like 2008?

Pretty much the only way the Rockies could have an OPS this bad from their center fielder in 2010 is to call up the Reds, trade for Willy Taveras, and play him 133 times in center.  Seriously, he was that bad.

OK

Time to see what you think.