The State of the Rockies: January Edition
by Jeff Aberle on Jan 23, 2010 6:50 PM MST
in Purple Row Academy
96 comments
Hello Rowbots! After a 40 day break, I'm back and better than ever, ready to talk about the construction of the Rockies' Opening Day 25 man roster. Since I last wrote about the State of the Rockies, many answers have been revealed and much has been clarified on this subject. In this column I'll be giving my take on each deal the Rockies have done since the Winter Meetings, outlining the 2010 roster as it stands today, and showing how much money the Rockies have tied up in payroll in coming years.
But before I look at the answers, I'd like to touch on the questions that remain for the Rockies this offseason. One question (whether to sign Jason Giambi to fill out the bench) was answered today, but that in turn opens up new questions for Colorado going into the 2010 season. Please allow me to explain.
As it stood today before the Giambi signing according to my projections, the Rockies had one spot on the 25 man roster to work with--to be filled presumably by a utility infielder. Adding Giambi fills that projected roster slot and provides the Rockies with a big, fearsome bat off the bench, veteran leadership, and another back-up to Todd Helton at first base. In addition, it might have the ancillary benefit of getting Seth Smith more PAs since Tracy won't feel the need to save him for high leverage situations.
However, Giambi is left-handed, keeping the Rockies vulnerable to southpaws, and he doesn't give the Rockies a lot of defensive flexibility. As it stands now the Rockies would then have no true backup to Ian Stewart or Troy Tulowitzki (and no, EY2 doesn't count) and my projected roster is full. One solution to this is to simply do nothing and go into Spring Training with this roster (the Rockies could certainly do worse).
Another is the possibility (unlikely) of Clint Barmes being moved to a super-utility role, to which he is well suited. This would assume either that the Rockies sign a player like Orlando Hudson to be the starter at second base if he can be had cheaply (less than $4 million), which would be nice but is very unlikely, or they sign a player like Fernando Tatis, Melvin Mora, or Robb Quinlan to provide a few at-bats per week and back up third. Of these Tatis is the most palatable.
If the above scenario happens (the Rockies add another infielder), a player (most likely EY2) will be optioned to AAA to begin the season. However, since the Rockies have a relatively light opening schedule to 2010 (three off days in April), the FO could elect to option a relief pitcher (Daley and Corpas both have options) and go with an eleven man pitching staff in the short run. This seems highly unlikely to me, however, and EY2 seems ticketed for AAA if the Rockies do make another addition.
Another route that I've heard mentioned that Colorado might take is to sign another relief pitcher like Joe Beimel to further solidify the bullpen. This would most likely mean a demotion for Daley, who has the most options remaining.
But who should fill out the roster? It is a good problem to have for the Rockies, having too many good pieces in the bullpen, starting rotation, and lineup. They could make a major move (signing Hudson or Felipe Lopez), a minor one (Tatis, Mora, Quinlan, or a reliever), or no move at all and still be an excellent team going into 2010.
Now about that 2010 Opening Day Roster...
I'll begin this analysis with a look at how the roster is shaping up for 2010. Before I begin, let me first note that this analysis will be limited to what I can project the 25 man roster to be, since I'm forecasting the 2010 ODP (which only includes the active roster and DL). For most of the players not on the 25 man roster but who are on the 40 man such as Jhoulys Chacin and Hector Gomez, they will be paid the prorated major league minimum should they make the Show and considerably less in the minor leagues.
Players Under Contract for 2010
This category is for money that the Rockies have already committed to the 2010 roster. Note that this only includes players who are under contract with the Rockies (not just under team control), giving management concrete salary obligations to work around. I have also included Alan Embree and Yorvit Torrealba, who won't be on the 2010 squad but who have buyouts paid by the Rockies in 2010. This data, as well as much of the data for the rest of this study, was contributed by the incomparable Jeff Euston at Cot's Contracts.
For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations. This means that I assume that the Rockies decline every club option now and in the future, with the players' buyout included as an obligation. A * after a player's name indicates that they avoided salary arbitration.
| Player Name | ML Service Time | 2010 Salary | Add. Min. Obligation | Years After 2010 |
| Todd Helton | 12.059 | $16,600,000 | $23,700,000 | 1 |
| Aaron Cook | 7.02 | $9,000,000 | $9,750,000 | 1 |
| Brad Hawpe | 5.058 | $7,500,000 | $500,000 | 0 |
| Huston Street* | 5 | $7,200,000 | $15,300,000 | 2 |
| Jeff Francis | 5.04 | $5,875,000 | $0 | 0 |
| Jorge De La Rosa* | 5.015 | $5,600,000 | $0 | 0 |
| Rafael Betancourt* | 6.079 | $3,775,000 | $3,775,000 | 1 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 3.033 | $3,500,000 | $25,750,000 | 3 |
| Clint Barmes* | 4.122 | $3,225,000 | $0 | 0 |
| Manuel Corpas | 3.076 | $2,750,000 | $3,750,000 | 1 |
| Miguel Olivo | 6.171 | $2,000,000 | $500,000 | 0 |
| Chris Iannetta* | 3.029 | $2,000,000 | $6,350,000 | 2 |
| Jason Hammel* | 2.153 | $1,900,000 | $0 | 0 |
| Jason Giambi | 14.082 | $1,750,000 | $0 | 0 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 2.087 | $1,250,000 | $8,000,000 | 2 |
| Ryan Spilborghs* | 3.082 | $1,300,000 | $1,925,000 | 1 |
| Taylor Buchholz* | 3.14 | $1,055,000 | $0 | 0 |
| Matt Belisle* | 4.019 | $850,000 | $0 | 0 |
| Randy Flores* | 5.025 | $650,000 | $0 | 0 |
| Yorvit Torrealba | 8.03 | $500,000 | $0 | 0 |
| Alan Embree | 15.059 | $250,000 | $0 | 0 |
| Total | $77,780,000 | $99,300,000 |
As you can see, there are nineteen players on this list who will be Rockies in 2010, ten of whom avoided salary arbitration.
Free Agent/Under Contract Players
The nine who were already under contract (Helton, Cook, Hawpe, Francis, Tulowitzki, Corpas, and Jimenez) or added as a free agent (Giambi and Olivo) are being paid a total of $50,225,000 in 2010. Of these nine players, the Rockies have committed at least some money to all but Francis and Giambi in 2011 (Hawpe and Olivo have option years). A more detailed breakdown of the future is provided later on. Meanwhile, here's my take a couple of these players:
Brad Hawpe: The signing of Giambi creates an even larger redundancy for Hawpe's role with the team (another defensively challenged left-handed slugger. Theoretically, the Giambi signing could be the precursor to a Hawpe trade, which I've advocated before. I wouldn't bet on it though, as Dan O'Dowd seems committed to keeping Hawpe on the team as a solid contributor on offense, a veteran leader, and insurance against regression by Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, and Carlos Gonzalez--a move which I can live with, especially with the Rockies so close in 2010 to playoff glory.
Miguel Olivo: I advocated the signing of Olivo as a backup catcher in this price range last month and my position hasn't changed from that point. He's solid Iannetta insurance and despite his deficiencies (patience at the plate, ball blocking, and game calling), he'll produce well in a Rockies uniform.
Arbitration Eligible Players
All but one of the ten arbitration eligible players received raises from the Rockies. The chart below details how the arbitration eligible players' salaries increased from 2009 to 2010:
| Player Name | ML Service Time | 2009 Salary | 2010 Salary | Diff. from 2009 |
| Huston Street | 5 | $4,500,000 | $7,200,000 | 60% |
| Jorge De La Rosa | 5.015 | $2,000,000 | $5,600,000 | 180% |
| Rafael Betancourt | 6.079 | $3,350,000 | $3,775,000 | 13% |
| Clint Barmes | 4.122 | $1,625,000 | $3,225,000 | 98% |
| Chris Iannetta | 3.029 | $415,000 | $2,000,000 | 382% |
| Jason Hammel | 2.153 | $422,200 | $1,900,000 | 350% |
| Ryan Spilborghs | 3.072 | $415,000 | $1,300,000 | 213% |
| Taylor Buchholz | 3.14 | $1,055,000 | $1,055,000 | 0% |
| Matt Belisle | 4.019 | $800,000 | $850,000 | 6% |
| Randy Flores | 5.025 | $600,000 | $650,000 | 8% |
| Total | $15,182,200 | $27,555,000 | 131% |
As you can see, the ten AE Rockies are earning on average 131% more than they did last year, ($12.4 million) basically replacing the lost salaries of Garrett Atkins, Jason Marquis, and the other departed 2009 Rockies. This is below last year's MLB average salary increase of 172% but still represents a large figure given the volume of AE players the Rockies had.
Looking back at my original projections, I did very well on a few (getting De La Rosa and Buchholz exactly right), pretty well on others (close on Hammel and Iannetta), overestimating a few by a lot (Betancourt, Street, Belisle, Flores, and Barmes), and underestimating Spilborghs.
Of these ten players, the Rockies have committed 2011 salary to Street, Betancourt, Iannetta, and Spilborghs. The other players (with the exception of De La Rosa and Flores) will still be under team control, but not at a concrete price point.
Here's my quick take on the arbitration-avoiding deals signed since the Winter Meetings:
Huston Street: I'm really not a fan of throwing lots of money at relievers (Dave Cameron does a pretty good job of summing up my opinion), but if you're going to do it with a reliever, Huston Street is a pretty good bet. He's young but has a good track record, he was very effective last year, and he's a model citizen to boot. I'd rather the Rockies turn the closer job over to a lower-priced power arm and spent the money elsewhere, but given the position the team is currently in I don't mind the expenditure as much.
Jorge De La Rosa: JDLR doesn't have anything to prove to me at this point. He's a stud and will perform like one (well above his contract's value) in 2010. Keeping him long term is another thing entirely.
Rafael Betancourt: I've written at length about Betancourt before and my opinion of middle relievers, but I must admit I was pleased that the Rockies got him at the price they did, especially when one considers the Brandon Lyon situation. If Betancourt's 35 year old body stays healthy, this will be an acceptable contract for the Rockies and will provide late game bullpen stabilization.
Jason Hammel: While Hammel may not necessarily repeat his excellent 2009 campaign, the peripherals are largely there for him to have a comparable 2010. I expect him to far outperform his contract.
Ryan Spilborghs: I appreciate Spilborghs as much as the next guy, but I think that the Rockies overpaid here for a fifth outfielder. Sure, Spilborghs may be the best fifth outfielder in MLB, but that doesn't change the fact that he'll have limited plate appearances (though his right-handedness is certainly a plus) in the role he's been given. Even so, Spilborghs should be solid depth and can rise to the occasion if injuries do strike, making him a nice security blanket for the Rockies in a year where wins are at a premium.
Taylor Buchholz: He didn't give the Rockies any production last year due to injury and therefore wasn't really due a raise. His health in 2010 is a definite risk for Colorado, as they could see an ineffective or injured Buchholz in 2010. I'm betting on a return to at least replacement level production for Buchholz when he does return, but that date is still in question.
Players Under Team Control, Pre-Arbitration Eligible
These seven players are at less than three years of major league service time and therefore are not eligible for salary arbitration. The Rockies have the option of keeping them under control for several more years and can do so cheaply in 2010 (for a price between $400,000 and $460,000). While I don't have concrete salary numbers for these players, for the purposes of this exercise I'm assuming a 3% raise over 2009 salary. The pre-arbitration players:
| Player Name | ML Service Time | 2010 Salary |
| Ian Stewart | 1.154 | $416,120 |
| Seth Smith | 1.119 | $415,090 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 1.06 | $415,090 |
| Franklin Morales | 1.051 | $414,060 |
| Dexter Fowler | 1.027 | $413,030 |
| Matt Daley | 0.166 | $412,000 |
| Eric Young Jr. | 0.041 | $412,000 |
| Total | $2,897,390 |
The 2010 Opening Day Roster, As It Currently Stands
As I mentioned up top, the signing of Giambi probably means that the Rockies will add another utility infielder, removing a cheap player (EY2) from the Opening Day Payroll and adding a more expensive one (like Tatis or Hudson). But barring such a move and assuming that Buchholz begins the season on the DL (leaving 25 healthy players on the ODP), the Rockies have committed to an ODP of $80,677,390 for 2010. This is an increase of about $5.5 million (or 7.3%) from 2009 and it represents the largest Rockies ODP in their history.
Future Salary Obligations
As I alluded to above, the Rockies have framework in place for years to come in terms of players under contract. This chart, an adaptation of the one at Cot's, shows the Rockies' future salary commitments by year. As in the other charts, I assume that the team turns down all player options to find the salary floor. A notable difference from Cot's: Euston prorates signing bonuses (such as that of Aaron Cook or Chris Iannetta) over the life of the contract while I place them in their entirety at the beginning of the contract. Numbers in italics are buyouts.
| Player Name | Service Time | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 |
| Todd Helton | 12.059 | $19,100,000 | $4,600,000 | ||
| Aaron Cook | 7.02 | $9,250,000 | $500,000 | ||
| Brad Hawpe | 5.058 | $500,000 | |||
| Huston Street | 5 | $7,300,000 | $7,500,000 | $500,000 | |
| Rafael Betancourt | 6.079 | $3,775,000 | |||
| Troy Tulowitzki | 3.033 | $5,500,000 | $8,250,000 | $10,000,000 | $2,000,000 |
| Manuel Corpas | 3.076 | $3,500,000 | $250,000 | ||
| Miguel Olivo | 6.171 | $500,000 | |||
| Chris Iannetta | 3.029 | $2,550,000 | $3,550,000 | $250,000 | |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 2.087 | $2,800,000 | $4,200,000 | $1,000,000 | |
| Ryan Spilborghs | 3.082 | $1,925,000 | |||
| Total | $56,700,000 | $28,850,000 | $11,750,000 | $2,000,000 | |
| Net | $99,300,000 |
As you can see, the players that the Rockies have locked up long-term provide an excellent, cost-controlled core for now and the immediate future. The roster turnover after the 2010 season should be fairly minimal, with only four players out of the 26 I've listed scheduled to become outright free agents, out of team control. This and the wealth of pitching prospects in the pipe bodes very well for the Rockies in the near term.
0 recs |
96 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
"they will be paid the prorated major league minimum should they make the Show and considerably less in the minor leagues."
Considering each of the players on the 40 man roster last year who did not make the majors (such as Shane Lindsay and Gomez) all made $400,000 according to the salary charts, I am pretty sure that any player with a major league contract, regardless of whether or not they’re on optional assignment, must be paid the league minimum.
That's interesting, to be sure.
Every definition of a major league contract I’d ever read stipulated that there were no exceptions to the minimum salary being paid to a player with a major league contract. See, technically, people like Lindsay/Gomez, and what Nicasio/Escalona/McKenry/Roe/Alburquerque are, are still major league players, simply on assignment away from the team.
I have to say it kind of seems to cheapen the idea of a “major league contract” in the first place.
Well, it also cheapens the payroll I was perceiving… so hey, that’s good. Maybe it opens more doors for making a Hudson signing, and I can start to get on board with that.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 23, 2010 8:24 PM MST up reply actions
That would be congruent with Jabbs' post.
But the question is, then, why were Lindsay and Gomez paid a full year’s major league salary?
by WolfMarauder on Jan 23, 2010 8:43 PM MST up reply actions
""These guys, they all sign split contracts that provide for one salary at the minor-league level and a different salary at the major-league level."
Seems the Rockies may simply have erroneously reported the payrolls for their minor leaguers.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 23, 2010 8:45 PM MST up reply actions
Cot's also has the .4 M number as the contract payment.
Which means, as the minor salary is specified below, it would be an easy (but still sloppy) mistake for a team payroll to reflect the major league salary of a player who had a separate salary for the minors.
This answers a lot of questions! Thanks for the links, mkorpal.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 23, 2010 8:48 PM MST up reply actions
No prob
I just wouldn’t bother thinking about what the guys in the minors are making. What truly matters is the opening day payroll for the 25 man roster.
Agreed, but you understand, I thought that all 20 of the team control players would be subject to the $400,000 salary.
It changed my perceived payroll quite significantly.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 23, 2010 9:00 PM MST up reply actions
Where were you the other day? :-)
"Baseball games are like snowflakes, no two are ever alike." - W. P. Kinsella
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 23, 2010 10:37 PM MST up reply actions
I threw out a number I thought the payroll would be
but it only included the minimum salaries for the guys on the 25 man roster instead of on the 40.
"Baseball games are like snowflakes, no two are ever alike." - W. P. Kinsella
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 24, 2010 10:44 PM MST up reply actions
That would have been the link I would have used to answer your question Wolf...
when 40 man roster players are in the minors they are considerably less well compensated and I like to keep that budget separate from the major league team.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jan 24, 2010 12:59 AM MST up reply actions
Again, I understand that.
I was just always under the assumption that a major league contract meant a major league salary, which would have meant that money should have been included with the rest. With that not being the case, there’s no need for that.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 24, 2010 1:04 AM MST up reply actions
And either way
teams usually split the budget between the majors and minors. So, they already know what they will be paying their minor league teams, and will budget separately
who says no ?
hawpe for uggla, straight up ? both making about the same salary, and both would be dealing from a position of strength. rockies get to move smith into LF, and spilly moves to 4th OF, possibly creating a spot for ey jr. fish get to move coghlan over to 2nd, move ross from right to left. voila ! barmes becomes super utility.
Trading Hawpe for uggla wouldn't open up a roster spot for EY2.
Assuming Uggla would become the starting 2B, Barmes would take over that spot.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 23, 2010 7:28 PM MST up reply actions
who would the 5th OF ?
if hawpe were traded, who am i forgeting ?
Barmes can play the OF. He has about the same amount of experience there as EY2 (IE "very little")
The point I was making isn’t about the roles, though. Just the numbers. Hawpe swapped for Uggla, and the current 25 man roster stays the same, as the two switch places. Smith to LF, CarGo to RF, Uggla to 2B, Barmes to utility. Assuming as you did that EY2 is bumped by a final signing (which in this case may have ended up as an OF rather than a corner IF, fulfilling your need), there’s still no spot for EY – there’s already 25 people.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 23, 2010 7:34 PM MST up reply actions
Total professional games in the OF (Single A through MLB):
Barmes: 24
Young Jr.: 21
by WolfMarauder on Jan 23, 2010 7:40 PM MST up reply actions
I'd make the case barmes could field it better than EY
I still distinctly remember EY diving for a ball in the LFCF gap that Cargo caught standing up – literally, EY dived behind him
Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
by Andrew Martin on Jan 24, 2010 12:47 AM MST up reply actions
go big or go home bro
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
gotcha
i was unaware barmes had any OF experience. super utility would be an understatement then….
How so?
The term “super-utility” usually applies to players who can play both IF and OF.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 23, 2010 7:44 PM MST up reply actions
maybe he can also catch
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Then he would indeed be a Super-Super utility player.
Barmes actually is, technically, the third string catcher on the team. Were both Olivo and Iannetta to go down for some reason, it’d be Barmes they put back there.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 24, 2010 12:09 AM MST up reply actions
If that ever happens
I want Tulo pitching.
Saved by the buoyancy of citrus.
by coolopotamus on Jan 24, 2010 8:17 AM MST up reply actions
They'd never do it, for risk of his arm.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 24, 2010 10:44 AM MST up reply actions
I know, but it would just be so darn poetic.
And I want Helton at second for the strike out/throw out (double) play.
Saved by the buoyancy of citrus.
by coolopotamus on Jan 24, 2010 4:07 PM MST up reply actions
or bring back the big cat.
(or just put CarGo in instead, they kind of look alike.)
Saved by the buoyancy of citrus.
by coolopotamus on Jan 24, 2010 4:33 PM MST up reply actions
What if the final roster spot went to a pitcher (beimel)?
by attackparrot on Jan 24, 2010 11:12 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
13 pitchers and a four player bench?
That’d be incredibly unorthodox, and would put a great deal of pressure on our infield to stay healthy.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 24, 2010 11:14 AM MST up reply actions
I'd go for this trade in a heartbeat.
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
Is there any chance at all that Barmes gets moved into said Utility position and EYJ gets the nod at 2nd base? I liked what I saw last season…
Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.
AARIN MEIBIN IS TEH SUZZORZ, am I right?
A small chance
Eric would need to really tear up Tucson. I can’t imagine the team would be willing to give another so-so rookie bat at 2B an automatic spot after the Nix mess.
To be fair after all the slumps Barmes seemed to get into last season I don’t think there would be all that much of a drop off in Offense.
Defense is another story and where I’d be worried on that account, obviously.
Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.
AARIN MEIBIN IS TEH SUZZORZ, am I right?
and given our groundballing staff, defense needs to come first if there's a concern
Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
by Andrew Martin on Jan 24, 2010 12:48 AM MST up reply actions
EY still projects as nothing more than a bench player.
That may end up differently later on, but going into the season, Barmes is out second baseman.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 23, 2010 8:19 PM MST up reply actions
Side Note:
I know two othe bills fans in Colorado. Not me of course, but they both go to my church.
Is it Opening Day yet??? See you at Coors.
Trust me, there’s more than you’d think. Every Sunday at LoDo’s you’ll find 20-30 minimum there enjoying the toil of failure that is Bills fandom.
Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.
AARIN MEIBIN IS TEH SUZZORZ, am I right?
My roommate is from Buff
and a Bills fan. Let me tell you, that toil of failure that is Bills fandom is impressive
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Looks good to me!
Looks pretty darn good to me as it is! Now, if the FO can go out and get either Hudson or Tatis (I would be thrilled with either at this point)…. I think we have the least questions ever for a Rockies line-up going into Spring Training. The bullpen of course will still be somewhat of a revolving door (just like every other team in MLB) at first since so many relievers seem to lack consistancy from year to year….. But this is a good team, with a lot of weapons both in the line-up and on the bench. As for facing lefties…. It’s a concern, but I think not as bad as it seems at first glance.
Go get Hudson. Go get Hudson. Go get Hudson. Go get Hudson.
Ubaldomania.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 23, 2010 9:07 PM MST reply actions
oooh new avatar
Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
by Andrew Martin on Jan 24, 2010 12:49 AM MST up reply actions
How soon can Hector Gomez
contribute to being a back-up middle infielder? Will he get a shot in Sept?
Is it Opening Day yet??? See you at Coors.
Way too raw and very far away
The bat just isn’t there yet, plain and simple, though it may break out soon.
Impossible not to have positive thoughts.
I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.
by bballrox4717 on Jan 23, 2010 9:58 PM MST up reply actions
Oh, and I saw that Hudson wants 9 mill
While Cabrera wants 3 mill. Neither is going to get what he wants, though Cabrera’s asking price is definitely more reasonable.
Impossible not to have positive thoughts.
I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.
and cabrera is godawful
Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
by Andrew Martin on Jan 24, 2010 12:49 AM MST up reply actions
Isn't Cargo an arb candidate for 2011 as well as Smith and Stewart?
"Baseball games are like snowflakes, no two are ever alike." - W. P. Kinsella
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 23, 2010 10:42 PM MST reply actions
Only as Super 2....
Stewart has a real chance to be a Super 2, but the others are less likely.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 23, 2010 10:45 PM MST up reply actions
That still involves a salary bump though
"Baseball games are like snowflakes, no two are ever alike." - W. P. Kinsella
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 23, 2010 11:27 PM MST up reply actions
For Stewart.
For the others, trivial thousands.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 23, 2010 11:33 PM MST up reply actions
I mean for Cargo
Isn’t he a candidate? He has played in 85 and 89 games the last two seasons.
"Baseball games are like snowflakes, no two are ever alike." - W. P. Kinsella
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 24, 2010 12:19 AM MST up reply actions
Service time isn't just the amount of games you play.
First of all, it includes all days active on an MLB roster, not just games played in. That includes days where one doesn’t get into the game, and also days the team has off, but other teams play games.
Secondly, service time operates on a 172 day counting scale. CarGo is at ~1.06 service time, which is equivalent to one year, 60 days. Assuming a full season in the bigs next year, he’ll be at two years, 60 days. Considering all those in contention for Super 2 end at two years, 171 days, that means that for CarGo to be a Super 2, more than 80% of all players in MLB between 2 and 3 years of service time must have less than 60 days appended to their full season total. That’s incredibly unlikely.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 24, 2010 12:26 AM MST up reply actions
Thanks
I thought your clock started ticking once you played in enough games for a season.
"Baseball games are like snowflakes, no two are ever alike." - W. P. Kinsella
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 24, 2010 10:47 PM MST up reply actions
If CarGo plays all of 2010 in MLB (and most likely he will)...
he will fall short of Super 2 status with 2.060 years of ML Service time. Normally the cut-off is around 2.130.
Eschew Obfuscation!
This is a great problem to have.
I’d rather be talking about too many players, too few roster spots than scratching heads to figure out the warmest body to fill a roster spot.
Don't hate the player, hate the game, except all Yankees players.
oh also
I’m not a troll, I just have very strong opinions on certain players in every sport. There just happen to be three of them on the negative side of those opinions on the Rockies! :D
Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.
AARIN MEIBIN IS TEH SUZZORZ, am I right?
well, I'd strongly advise that you defend your strong opinions rather than just guerrilla post
we’re all about the conversation and the dialogue here. Not trying to run you off, I promise, but if you can well defend your case beyond a quick post and then vanishing, you’ll be totally appreciated, I promise.
Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
by Andrew Martin on Jan 24, 2010 12:52 AM MST up reply actions
look at that
2 promises from a mod
Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
by Andrew Martin on Jan 24, 2010 12:53 AM MST up reply actions
I could have sworn that at least once I wrote out my case for the hatred of DLR.
The Spilly post was actually supposed to come off as a joke, but that didn’t work out!
I’ve found whenever you have opinions in a group of 200 people that disagree with you arguing never gets you anywhere anyway.
Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.
AARIN MEIBIN IS TEH SUZZORZ, am I right?
by UZ on Jan 24, 2010 1:45 AM MST up reply actions
It'd also help if I showed up here more than once a week!
It’s not guerilla posting so much as it’s me posting, forgetting about it and coming back 6 days later. :P
Bills fan? In Colorado? It's more likely than you think.
AARIN MEIBIN IS TEH SUZZORZ, am I right?
by UZ on Jan 24, 2010 1:49 AM MST up reply actions
boy i know what that's like
4 zillion sbnation sites and I’m like “oh damn i posted there last week”
Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
by Andrew Martin on Jan 24, 2010 8:11 AM MST up reply actions
I am beginning to think the signing of Spilly
Lends serious credibility th Hawpe being traded. It may be for prospects mid season, but i don’t see that option being picked up and he has more value than Atkins di this time last year. Some of that money goes to Cargo. If the kids don’t slump Hawpe could be gone by early to mid June.
I still see spilly as insurance...
Against regression by Dex/Smitty/Cargo/Hawpe… It never hurts to have an extra OF bat your reasonably confident in, especially when 3 out of the other 4 bat primarily lh…
by attackparrot on Jan 24, 2010 11:21 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
God I am excited about 2010.
The Rox have no obvious weaknesses and the west is very winnable. Baseball plzzzz!
Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity
Interesting that Hawpe's future with the club hinges on Barmes
If we weren’t focused on the potential offensive weakness from the 2B position there wouldn’t be much talk about trading Hawpe. We do need a back up no matter how you look at it, but are we shopping for back up or a starter? At this point (even though yesterday I said Hawpe for Ugla and Logan Morrison) I am willing to wait and see how Barmes performs this year and then make a decision before the deadline. If we didn’t have the issue at second, trading Hawpe wouldn’t be as much of a consideration so I think we should give Barmes a chance to not make it an issue and see if he can regain 2008 form. We save money by sticking with EY2 or getting a cheaper utility.
"If we weren’t focused on the potential offensive weakness from the 2B position there wouldn’t be much talk about trading Hawpe."
Fully disagree. Our outfield depth alone has had people considering a Hawpe trade for quite a while.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 24, 2010 1:32 PM MST up reply actions
I'm talking about the recent talks on Uggla though
It’s more of an issue when considering trading for Uggla. I know there’s been Hawpe talk for a while, but would prefer to keep him if there weren’t an issue at second. I know I would prefer to keep him at least.
Hawpe is my favorite player, but I still would have preferred we traded him while interest was higher at the beginning of the offseason.
Would have freed up $7.5 million, giving us all the more ability to work around the roster through the season. Hawpe is the fourth best outfielder on the roster to begin with, and as long as he’s here, he’s starting. I’d prefer a Smith, Fowler, CarGo outfield. For me, trading Hawpe works better in every sense.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 24, 2010 1:51 PM MST up reply actions
I agree in a way
I’m very anxious to see what a starting outfield of Smith, Fowler and Cargo would produce but it would be really tough to let Hawpe’s consistent .290 and 25 homeruns go. I also agree that we’ve lost a lot of the value we would have gotten from him by waiting until now so why not continue to wait until mid season?
I believe Smith could produce similarly in a full season, plus better defense.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 24, 2010 2:38 PM MST up reply actions
I agree
Honestly Fowler is more of a concern to me than Smith or Cargo. In the event of a major slump I would rather have Cargo start center, Smith left and Hawpe right.
The only real concern I had with Fowler was with Ks, and that's common for a rookie.
He made the adjustment incredibly successfully overall.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 24, 2010 2:47 PM MST up reply actions
Fowler's 2009 is not going to be the ceiling for his career
He has a similar ceiling to CarGo except the latter has more power potential, and don’t forget, Fowler was legitimately rushed while CarGo’s entering his third MLB season (albeit this will be his first full season). Fowler’s first taste of the majors was way more successful than CarGo in 2008.
Impossible not to have positive thoughts.
I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.
by bballrox4717 on Jan 24, 2010 3:23 PM MST up reply actions
Cargo is my main outfield concern
As last season he was so impressive in the run-in that I worry that he can only disappoint, and this might affect both the fanbase and the player negatively.
I disagree
Cargo has much more potential in my mind than Fowler. I agree that 2009 was not the ceiling by any means. It was his rookie year! I do think though that Cargo has the tools to be an all around greater asset to our team.
CarGo is a player that has always been highly touted but never showed results
so he could definitely regress, though he can another step forward. Fowler in my opinion is definitely more likely to expand upon 2009 and it will be a complete and utter success if CarGo can repeat most of what he did across all of 2010. I also really kind of expect an improvement in center from Fowler as well, and it kinds of irks me that people are little bit pessimistic with him considering how raw he still is and what he was able to accomplish last year despite being completely rushed.
Impossible not to have positive thoughts.
I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.
by bballrox4717 on Jan 24, 2010 4:27 PM MST up reply actions
Never shown results?
He and Tulo were the best offensive players on our team from July-October last year! I’m not so much discrediting Folwer’s ability as I am promoting Cargo’s. I think Fowler has incredible upside just not as much as Cargo does. We all have a different eye for the style and ability of players and that’s what makes it fun being a fan. We’ll see how they both develop!
speaking for 4717, i think "never shown results"
Refers to pre-09. His stats never matched his potential until AAA in a huge hitter’s league for two months and two solid months in the big leagues. Many such prospects looked like they put it together in a couple months, but that by no means says he has arrived. He is still very much unproven to me. He has to reproduce results
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 25, 2010 7:31 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
That plus the fact that Hawpe will probably never be worth more on the trade market than he is right now.
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
Ty Wigginton
With the Tejada/Atkins signings, rumor has it the Wigginton is available. Reasonable contract ($2.5 million) good RH power bat, plays both infield corners and has corner OF experience. Would spell Stewart and Helton along with balancing Giambi for PH.
Would a package of EY jr and pitching prospect (Nicasio/Roe/Deduno) be enough?
I wouldn't give up one of those players for Wigginton, let alone two.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 24, 2010 5:59 PM MST up reply actions
iawtc
Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
by Andrew Martin on Jan 24, 2010 9:01 PM MST up reply actions
yes. I think that would be a fair trade.
If they ate like most of his contract.
Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
by Andrew Martin on Jan 24, 2010 9:25 PM MST up reply actions
+1
Ks too much thus not on base enough. Anyone of those guys alone would be a steal for the O’s.
TGFPR!!
Charts and article updated to reflect Huston Street's contract structure...
which is deferred more to the future than I’d previously represented.
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
Smith and Reynolds
I know these two guys were hurt last year. Is there any hope for them? I am slightly nervous about a long relief/emergency starter role with the current roster. I guess if that’s my biggest worry, the Rocks must be in pretty good shape.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Purple Row
Related FanShots on Purple Row
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
SBNation.com Recent Stories
Blogroll
News and Stuff:
Official Rockies Site
Rocky Mountain News
Denver Post
Inside the Rockies
Hardball in the Rockies (Thomas Harding's blog)
The Growing Colorado Rockies Blog Avalanche:
Diamond in the Rox
Denver Baseball Observer
Rox Head
Rockies Photo Blog
Inside the Humidor
Purple Rox Squad
Rockpile Rant
View from the Rockpile
I Live for This
Rocky Mountain Way
Rockies Review
Rockiescast
Rockies Locker
Other Colorado Rockies forums/discussions:
TheScoreBoards.com
Colorado Sports blogs:
Mile High Report (Denver Broncos)
BroncoTalk (Denver Broncos)
Mile High Hockey (Colorado Avalanche)
Denver Stiffs (Denver Nuggets)
The Ralphie Report (CU Buffaloes)
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
