Thursday Rockpile: Why Tim Redding? Probably because the Rockies know something that you don't
by Rox Girl on Jan 28, 2010 8:56 AM MST
in Rockpile
428 comments
The Rockies, like most teams, have a decent idea of what players on other teams they could have use for. One of these players for some time now has been Tim Redding. Yesterday, they finally got their man, and apparently it's left a lot of Rockies fans scratching their heads.
Before I start, I want to point out that the signing of Redding indicates that Dan O'Dowd, Jim Tracy and the rest of the Rockies front office believes two things:
- The team does not need a starting pitching upgrade.
- The team does need starting pitching depth
By default then, additional starting pitching will have to agree to a minor league contract. A team's not going to get the highest quality of free agent starter when they can't guarantee them an MLB rotation slot. So my guess is that when fans complain about a signing like Redding, they are really asserting that the front office belief #1 is false. So their beliefs tend to look like this:
- The team does need a starting pitching upgrade
- Who cares about who's in the AAA rotation?
There are a couple of reasons that I think some fans have this in their head. First, I think this stems largely from anxieties over Jeff Francis' return. The last memory most Rockies fans will have of Francis was his awful 2008 season, when he handicapped himself and the team by trying to play through a lingering shoulder problem. The Rockies front office, meanwhile, believes that Francis is at a point where the 2006-2007 version will be more likely in 2010.
What is the team's track record of identifying the quality of pitchers returning from injury?
So far, it's been pretty solid. Recovering pitchers with starting track records that the team has dealt to other clubs, buried in AAA or allowed to sign elsewhere such as Jason Hirsh, Greg Reynolds or Rodrigo Lopez, respectively, have gone on to largely undistinguished results. In these cases where the Rockies felt they needed to get starting rotation upgrades (I realize that with Reynolds, the desire for an upgrade probably had as much to do with his ineffectiveness as it did with his balky shoulder) they have been proven correct.
For the reverse side, pitchers that the team has decided to trust with a rotation slot after major lost time due to injury/surgery, we have to go back Aaron Cook's 2004 blood clot surgery and recovery in 2005 or perhaps Jason Jennings returning from a fractured finger (ending his season in July of 2005) in 2006. Neither scenario involves a completely lost year like Francis' 2009, but both show the club has made decent judgments in the past when it comes to picking which damaged pitchers to trust.
In short, I think O'Dowd deserves some leeway here because he's been decent with his judgment on these matters in the past.
Another part of why fans don't share FO belief #1, I think, is a bigger yacht fallacy. Just because the neighboring estate has a bigger yacht than you do does not make you poverty stricken. I think fans will see an inferior rotation to the Giants (which itself is debatable given their lack of depth and the uncertainty of their likely #5 starter Madison Bumgarner) and think that the Rockies can only be successful if the team's clearly superior to that unit. Rather than looking at the smaller craft docked around the rest of the division, they focus on a goal that given the Rockies budget and current MLB ready personnel is unobtainable for now. Rather the focus should be on the estate as a whole. The yacht may be a little smaller, but the grounds and overall net worth are larger.
Now more specifically, what exactly, are the Rockies seeing in Tim Redding that you aren't? First, he meets the default criteria of being an MLB experienced starter willing to sign a minor league deal.
Second, I think you'd have to look at what he was doing in Houston that he's gotten away from since then. His first three seasons with the Astros his GB/FB rates were 1.10, 1.22 and 1.16. In the four seasons he's pitched since (he missed 2006), they've been 0.94, 0.97, 0.99 and 0.75. Like Lopez, Jason Marquis and Jorge De La Rosa, I think the Rockies have identified in him a candidate that they can dramatically increase the GB percentage he's getting and thereby also greatly increase his value at a place like Coors Field, mainly by bumping up the use of his two-seam FB and keeping his four-seamer lower in the strike zone.
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2. Who cares about who's in the AAA rotation?
Apparently, “we” do.
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The team "we" purportedly follow certainly seems to, so I think it might be good to look at, particularly since there
isn’t a whole lot else going on.
With all the talk of Redding in past years, how had I not heard this potential nugget?
His first three seasons with the Astros his GB/FB rates were 1.10, 1.22 and 1.16. In the four seasons he’s pitched since (he missed 2006), they’ve been 0.94, 0.97, 0.99 and 0.75. ….I think the Rockies have identified in him a candidate that they can dramatically increase the GB percentage he’s getting and thereby also greatly increase his value
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 9:08 AM MST reply actions
I don't think he'll be a true GB pitcher like Cook or Marquis,
But I’m guessing that with tweaks to his repertoire that the Rockies think they can get him up toward the 45% GB rate that JDLR and Hammel operate at. Even that would represent a significant upgrade.
Very interesting point.
Wonder if he can pull a Pineiro, get the rate up enough to basically become a new pitcher. For the price of a minor league contract that’s not a horrible chance to take. Like you say, it wouldn’t take much of a rate increase to make a difference.
You didn’t hear it because it was getting drowned out by “OH NOES WHY THE HELL IS DAM ODUMB SIGNING TIM REDDING HE SUX SO BAD AND JIM TRACY IS GOING TO START HIM EVERY FIFTH DAY AND PLAY HIM OVER SETH SMITH IN THE OUTFIELD”.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
With 55 homers allowed in the past three season,
Redding must surely also be able to hit them as well as he serves them up.
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by Russ Oates on Jan 28, 2010 9:24 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh noes?
Thankfully I haven’t seen anyone talk like a mentally dysfunctional 13 year old who just got caught sexting at school. What about those 5.17, 4.98 and 5.08 FIPS, and the aforementioned 55 HRs, over the last three years, indicates that he doesn’t “sux so bad”?
I don’t live in CO, or read the DP at all, so maybe I’m missing out on the hyperbolic negative reaction to Redding, but this is a move that says the FO is
1) at least slightly more in touch with reality than they were when Kip Wells or Livan or Redman,
or
2) living in the past like they were with Wells or Livan.
Hopefully they’re not just living in the past. But the GB% comment posted by PF, and the 3 years FIP and HR rate does not inspire confidence that he will be that much better than other recycling projects.
Still, as a minor league contract, a good idea.
It was bad enough that Troy Renck had to write a blog post
telling everyone to settle down and recognize that Redding was a very minor acquisition not counted on for anything
http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2010/01/27/rockies-sign-tim-redding-for-pitching-depth/
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 9:59 AM MST up reply actions
I don’t believe you have met my friend.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
by Franchise26 on Jan 28, 2010 10:03 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Denver post comments actually do look like that.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 10:34 AM MST up reply actions
Meanwhile
over here we have comments in which we reference Xenophon and his Anabasis.
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by Russ Oates on Jan 28, 2010 10:56 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
Alright, since a couple of people have brought the HR's up, I think we should address this.
Before I do that, though, I should point out that what we’ve seen over the last three years from Redding would represent the floor, right? A 5.00 FIP is right around Fogg level performance. As you indicate, there’s no problem with this as a minor league depth signing. In case of emergency, it’s not a terrible showing and as long as it’s not Jimenez he’s replacing, we can live with it until a better prospect is ready or the team is able to make a trade for an upgrade.
Now, if I’m right that the Rockies believe they can improve on those GB rates, and if they are right that they can, that FIP will be going down quite a bit. If you look at his HR rates with the Astros, those should be going down quite a bit too, since he’s giving up basically the same amount of HR’s per FB, he’s just been going the wrong direction with that latter stat. Like Renck says, it’s very low risk with a pretty high reward possible.
That's fair
But, getting a pitcher over 30 to recover or drastically grow his GB%… is it often successful? Piniero, I’m aware of, but who else?
On the terms in which the Rockies acquired him, it’s a nice deal. I just hope it’s not something where they’re expecting a replication of that fraction of a season he succeeded with the Nationals 2 years ago, which they’ve been longing for since.
It doesn't have to be often successful
We essentially lose nothing if it’s not. I’ll take that lottery ticket
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 11:08 AM MST up reply actions
Marquis's went up by 10% last year,
I don’t think it’s often that it happens, but the Rockies have proven to be pretty good at getting big bumps in GB rates. Marquis went from 47.6% with the Cubs in 2008 (31 yrs. old) to 55.6% with the Rockies last season. Lopez went from 42.6 with the Orioles in 2006 (31 yrs. old) to 47.1% in his short stint with the Rockies in 2007.
I hope you rise up enough to work at a Denver station
They didn’t hear that Tim Redding was signed, wouldn’t know who he was anyway but probably would have raked O’Dowd over the coals for the move if they did.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 9:24 AM MST up reply actions
Tracy WOULD start him over Smith, wouldn't he...
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:06 PM MST up reply actions
False dichotomies
I just wanted to spout out a logic term
I, for one, am optimistic about the future. And I'm not one to be optimistic about anything.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc
I’m with you.
"I clearly miscalculated how popular it would be to show Calvin urinating on a Ford logo"--Bill Watterson
by frightenedinmate#2 on Jan 28, 2010 9:24 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Post hoc ergo propter hoc
is so last season.
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by Russ Oates on Jan 28, 2010 9:25 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs
QED, MFer?
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
YAHTZEE!
"I clearly miscalculated how popular it would be to show Calvin urinating on a Ford logo"--Bill Watterson
by frightenedinmate#2 on Jan 28, 2010 9:28 AM MST up reply actions
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 9:26 AM MST reply actions
Yeah, I forgot to link to one of those stories this morning.
It explains why the Rockies would be concentrating their efforts on Mora.
jerks
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
isn't that the truth.
Colorado Rockies 2009 - Best comeback in MLB history to win NL Wild Card
Troy Tulowitzki- MLB's BEST shortstop..nuff said
Brad Hawpe- The Original Rockies LASER arm
Dexter Fowler- Blinding speed, blinding smile, leaps Utleys in a single bound.
Yorvit Torrealba- Thanks for all the clutch in the playoffs!
this is really interesting
because Theo Epstein was with the Padres before the RedSox and now Towers to the Yankees…
hm
Colorado Rockies 2009 - Best comeback in MLB history to win NL Wild Card
Troy Tulowitzki- MLB's BEST shortstop..nuff said
Brad Hawpe- The Original Rockies LASER arm
Dexter Fowler- Blinding speed, blinding smile, leaps Utleys in a single bound.
Yorvit Torrealba- Thanks for all the clutch in the playoffs!
Would be an interesting showdown considering their history
but I think Towers will wind up as GM for a smaller team (I’ll cross my fingers for the Royals) in a year or two.
Good write up
Like the article. The signing doesn’t excite me, but its the kind of signing I would expect. He has been on their radar for some time and he provides an ability to start or relieve. Its a makes sense kind of signing. Being older than the other pitchers leaves me wondering if he will adapt his approach to the success we have seen in other reclamation projects, but I like having a veteran who has played some meaningful games.
I see him as Josh Fogg with more upside
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 9:41 AM MST up reply actions
This is what I was just thinking this morning
really not a lot of down side, to this deal and easily fixable if it doesn’t work out.
Dex Knows
Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point. -C.S. Lewis
I'm just stoked we didn't have to pay him real money
and O’Dowd “got his guy”
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:06 PM MST up reply actions
Reynolds health is still up in the air.
He wants to be going straight into Spring Training, but they may immediately push him back into extended Spring Training, and if his pain comes back, it may be even worse.
Smith will be at AAA, and will be one of the first callup possibilities should Francis explode.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 10:36 AM MST up reply actions
Satchel at Beyond the Box Score
has a nice article up about the farm system rankings. Examines why klaw’s are different than Sickel’s.
It was discussed a bit yesterday but klaw has the Rockies as 8th, Sickel has the system at 22nd.
I still think Sickel’s rankings are a bit counter intuitive (not just because his rankings wind up with the rox lower) but I suppose that’s the point.
I actually think Satchel's mistaken here
He attributes the discrepancy to the Rockies lack of system depth, but depth, particularly in pitching, is one of the system’s strong points and Sickels acknowledged this in his write up of the team at Minor League Ball. What the team really lacks is clearly elite high impact position players, and this is where I think you can see that Sickels probably doesn’t give equal weight to pitching prospects as he does to position prospects.
Second, I think the California League has screwed up the way that a lot of people who use stats (like Sickels) to evaluate prospects they aren’t able to see come to their conclusions. Specifically, position players in the North division (including Rockies, Giants and D-backs prospects) will be underrated compared to those from the South division (including Dodgers and Padres prospects). In the Rockies case, I believe guys like Gomez, Blackmon and Rosario are getting unfairly knocked by generic league adjustments. There are other reasons I think the Rockies are likely closer to Law’s assessment of the system than the rank based on Sickels grades (which really aren’t his rankings, btw, just a reverse engineered ranking based on the grades he gave prospects) I’ll probably have to devote a longer post to this.
Good point about the league issues.
I think using minor league stats in general can be very misleading, so I see all sorts of issues calculating values in the minors, especially in the lower levels. I think it’s a really interesting advancement of Wang’s work and a nice step forward. I welcome any attempt to challenge what’s considered common sense in baseball. Sickels’ approach does cast light on how subjective rankings can really overvalue systems that are top heavy, I just haven’t bought into it completely yet.
Klaw is having a chat now on ESPN.
There was one question directly related to the Rockies. He basically said he put them 8th because of the two lefties (Friedrich and Matzek, I assume) and the players not in his top100.
I just read the chat finally,
and there were actually a couple of questions directly related to the Rockies, the other one being this:
a D u B (Newport Beach, CA)
Has Chris Nelson fallen off the radar?
Klaw
(2:04 PM)
Not healthy. I think he’s a big leaguer, an everyday 2b at least, if he can stay healthy.
He and I are in the same boat with Nelson. I think he’s a real sleeper now, and we’ll be thankful the team’s been patient with him.
I sincerely hope you're correct on this
It’d be great to go from famine to feast with infielders.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:09 PM MST up reply actions
If you have Baseball Prospectus subscription
The Best and Worst GM’s of the Decade
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 10:09 AM MST reply actions
And if we don't
can you paraphrase.
The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.
by rockieprogress on Jan 28, 2010 12:28 PM MST up reply actions
Spoiler alert
Athletics Nation Has the top & bottom 5.
Billy Beane is tops, Steve Philips is #1 worst! Not too much surprise considering how they calculated it.
I’d love to see Philips reaction on espn.
More spoilers...
Taken from comments on AN…
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.
I have a hard time seeing that Ned Colletti should have been NL Exec of the Year over O'Dowd
A lot of credit for Wolf maybe?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:07 PM MST up reply actions
He shouldn't have been exec of the year over o'dowd
but according to the Payroll Efficiency Rating BP calculated he wrung more out of his payroll.
Thanks.
I’d have to disagree with some of them, but its their opinion…
The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.
by rockieprogress on Jan 28, 2010 1:05 PM MST up reply actions
At Minor League Ball
Martin Perez vs. Christian Friedrich
If anyone wants to make a case for Friedrich.
I don't understand why these signings are even made that big a deal.
I don’t mind Lo Duca, Redding, or Turnbow (if he signs). People that are making this a big deal and say that O’Dowd is making dumb decisions just can’t see the light. It’s really dumb, and people need to read articles like RG lovely writes so they can READ and LEARN.
Remember old folks, I'm just 18 years old =]
Yeah, really: these players won't hurt us if they don't do so great, and might just benefit us if they do well.
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
by prettyinpurple on Jan 28, 2010 11:24 AM MST up reply actions
Redding has good potential...and is very good insurance in case Francis does well, suck in his comeback season.
Remember old folks, I'm just 18 years old =]
by GoRockies!! on Jan 28, 2010 11:31 AM MST up reply actions
All very true.
I thinking that Francis won’t do as bad as 08. Of course he probably won’t do like 07, but I’m thinking (hoping) he won’t need a replacement.
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
by prettyinpurple on Jan 28, 2010 11:34 AM MST up reply actions
I"m with you.
I really want Francis to have a great season (what Rox fan doesn’t), but I"m just pointing out that in case of a fallout, Redding is there (although Smith is in the wings as well). We have depth.
Remember old folks, I'm just 18 years old =]
by GoRockies!! on Jan 28, 2010 11:35 AM MST up reply actions
Of course though, you have any of the other 4 pitchers who could hit the injury bug.
It’s not just about Francis
Remember old folks, I'm just 18 years old =]
by GoRockies!! on Jan 28, 2010 11:37 AM MST up reply actions
absolutely.
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
by prettyinpurple on Jan 28, 2010 4:23 PM MST up reply actions
Early hunting season.
Looking for reasons to say the team sucks.
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by Russ Oates on Jan 28, 2010 11:27 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
heh +1
Dex Knows
Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point. -C.S. Lewis
by RockiesDave on Jan 28, 2010 11:31 AM MST up reply actions
Renck's "calm down" blogpost
would have been more effective if he said “Think of it like the Broncos signing Ty Law or Chad Jackson to their practice squad”
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 11:37 AM MST up reply actions 3 recs
Rofl this...
Rec’d.
Remember old folks, I'm just 18 years old =]
by GoRockies!! on Jan 28, 2010 11:38 AM MST up reply actions
green
this stupid town
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:10 PM MST up reply actions
Come on now
how can you read a sophisticated baseball blog and not reflexively hate journeman veterans???
To me, the terror is just a function of the nature of blogs like this — very focused on prospects who we all fall in love with…and mostly, of course, just derivative of the old “backup QB syndrome” where we know that Redding blows and we assume whoever he replaces (prospect) must therefore be better.
To me, depth is always a good thing. Not sure some of these moves actually add depth or just the perception thereof, but I guess we’ll see. That said, in both of our recent playoff runs we’ve legitimately relied on re-treads, washouts and other random signings that, if signed during the offseason, would have sent some into fits of hysterics far beyond what we’ve seen with these recent signings. Better to have and not need than need and not have.
Last season's retreads...
were there any? I don’t think Jason Marquis or Betancourt were really considered re-treads. Giambi in some circles maybe.
I think for me the concern is…we had such a successful season, why not enhance that with really good insurance?
But like any insurance, you don’t really know how good it is until it comes time to file a claim :)
Let’s hope we don’t get to that point
Because it's become tiresome
SDcat!
It’s gone! Shaved off! You’re bald!
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 12:27 PM MST up reply actions
Marquis wouldn't be considered a top free agent
And could be considered “washed up”. Also think of Matsui in ’07. Rockies have had some success rejuvenating failing careers. And destroying good ones.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 12:38 PM MST up reply actions
chicken dinner
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:11 PM MST up reply actions
I think the problem is that really good insurance
is going to cost more and likely won’t sign a minor league contract.
I think Teekalong was talking about people like Herges in 2007, and I’m sure there are more.
Herges is one good example
and he was a central figure. But I’m thinking of peripheral guys too, like Rincon, Peralta and Contreras last year, or even guys like Redman, Dessens and Ortiz from 2007. Sure, these guys were not necessarily “good” but they were part of the puzzle. Inevitably, someone random is going to be called upon, and at a base level I’d rather it be someone we have around rather than some desperate move.
I guess the thrust of my position is the general notion of “you’re only as good as your weakest link.” Not that I buy that philosophy, but the idea that every incremental improvement is a worthwhile one…
Something that may or may not go along with what you're saying ...
It is good to have insurance options because every year there are baseball players that get hurt. As the season goes along, each team has guys going down and needs to find replacements. Some of those come from trades or minor leagues. A team can either try to find a replacement at the time of the injury, or plan ahead and pick up an insurance policy when there are more options available, so that they don’t have to compete with other teams. In other words, Redding doesn’t look valuable now, but he might be valuable (either to the Rockies or some other team) come August. I think in economics you would call it elastic vs. inelastic demand.
Interesting that you say this
As a sophisticated baseball blog just posted a commentary saying that old guys are the new walks.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 12:27 PM MST up reply actions
Broken link
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 12:34 PM MST up reply actions
Oops
Thanks. I usually check this stuff.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 12:35 PM MST up reply actions
I have my doubts that the pendulum will swing far enough
towards young players to make old players generally undervalued, but it’s an interesting thought.
We'll find out
If Damon signs for $5 million.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 12:39 PM MST up reply actions
Heh, no offense but one player does not a trend make.
Hopefully the new inefficiency is in facial hair and we see a full resurgence following the lead of clay zavada.
Oh I know
But it could be indicative of the start of a trend, especially with a player as high-profile as Damon.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 12:45 PM MST up reply actions
A big concern I had with Redding
is relieved to some extent by it being a minor league contract.
Redding in the past has not been a guy who’s good to have in the
clubhouse — selfish, arrogant, not well-liked by teammates.
(Bagwell & Biggio made it clear they wanted his “me first” attitude
out of Houston’s clubhouse.)
As long as he’s in the Springs or called up for temp. duty,
Redding can’t do much harm. Or, who knows, maybe a few
years bouncing back & forth between the minors & big league
mediocrity have altered his approach to the game from the time
he was a “can’t miss prospect.”
New decade, new result: time for a Rockies' division championship.
OT
First Howard Zinn, now JD Salinger.
This is a brutal week for my favorite authors.
R.I.P.
Attention Whore.
McGwire's back in the limelight
JD Salinger is dead.
Are there any recluses left?
New decade, new result: time for a Rockies' division championship.
Ah Terry Malick
Badlands is a great movie
"Groovy" Ash from Evil Dead 2
"No one came from miles around / and said man your music is really hot" No One Came...Deep Purple
Days of Heaven isnt his best...but its still good
"Groovy" Ash from Evil Dead 2
"No one came from miles around / and said man your music is really hot" No One Came...Deep Purple
Do they have to be literary recluses?
Cormac McCarthy is thankfully still kicking. He’s not the recluse he used to be but he’s still pretty….reclusive…
Good choice
But he allowed a semi-interview recently, so he’s just a semi-recluse.
Seems like most recluses these days are ex-dictators of third-world countries, most of them hiding in France.
We’re running out of American recluses — Howard Hughes, Marlene Dietrich (well, she was in America when she got reclusive), Salinger. McGwire un-reclused.
Someone famous needs to go into hiding to stay famous.
New decade, new result: time for a Rockies' division championship.
Different subject
But since I only have a few minutes to post during lunch break, I
offer this thought on Tatis vs. Mora.
Tatis is lousy on defense, from what I’ve seen over the years.
Mora is a good defensive player.
Given the nature of their likely roles (late inning pinch hitting or
subbed in a “double swap” along with a relief pitcher), the defensive part of their
games is at least as important as the offensive side, where
Tatis may have an edge. Mora’s still an upgrade offensively
over Q.
Mora’s also a quality individual who’d fit in well with the
Rockies. I think Mora would be a good addition & hope
he accepts the Rockies offer.
New decade, new result: time for a Rockies' division championship.
Hard for me to comment on the relative merits
since I don’t watch either of these guys too closely, but I agree completely with your premise here. Unless the guy is a legitimately good and versatile defender, I’d prefer EY2 myself.
Our starting infield defense is so good
That I don’t foresee too many Jamey Carroll type defensive closer type moves late in games this next year. Although they would be used to spell 2B, SS and 3B to give the starters days off every once in a while, so defense is important, I don’t think that it’s necessarily more important than offense.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 12:44 PM MST up reply actions
man, bringing Carroll back would've been great
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:13 PM MST up reply actions
Jose Contreras believes converting to a reliever will lengthen his career. Was he thinking this a month ago?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 12:20 PM MST reply actions
If nothing else, he's convinced himself after signing the contract.
Sidenote: I want to stab people who use backgrounds like that on the internet. It is no longer 1995 :(
Wait?? It's NOT 1995?
Crap….I wondered why I wasnt hearing Oasis on the radio
"Groovy" Ash from Evil Dead 2
"No one came from miles around / and said man your music is really hot" No One Came...Deep Purple
Man I wish I wasn't hearing Oasis on the radio
It’s like water torture – at first you wonder what the fuss is about, but after 15 years of THE SAME RIFFS you do start going a bit bonkers.
It's not surprising to see him trying to extend his career into his 70s
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
woa.
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
by prettyinpurple on Jan 28, 2010 4:28 PM MST up reply actions
Are you sure it wasn't SportsNation?
not that I’m doubting you, but I can’t believe ESPN know of any other media/sports outlet outside of the Mothership
Because it's become tiresome
No, it was definitely SB Nation.
He was talking about college basketball, and said something about comments at SB Nation, a blog he enjoys. And plenty of ESPN folks know about high profile blogs.
Eastcoast
Sports
Programming
Network
"I won't sign for a penny less than fifteen hundred dollars" Honus Wagner
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 28, 2010 10:34 PM MST up reply actions
Whoah, PECOTA's just not a fan of the Rockies this year.
Baseball Prospectus’ proprietary system is currently projecting 80-82 and a fourth place finish for the Rockies.
It seems JDLR in particular (just a smidgen above replacement level) and the starting rotation in general is what they see as weighing the team down. JDLR, Hammel and Francis they see as giving less than a win of value to the team. For what it’s worth, PECOTA really didn’t like the Rockies last season, either.
this is really jawdropping
did they not pay attention to our vastly improved pitching? Even Dan Plesac had to stop calling them “The Rockies Horror Pitching Show”
Because it's become tiresome
I'm just guessing that Hammel & De la rosa's
less than stellar histories are weighing them down more in the projection than what was basically one good season for either of them. I think all the projection systems are showing a regression for both pitchers in 2010. It sounds like pecota is extra negative though.
Projections can only take you so far, they can’t account for what we saw on the mound last season. I’m not that worried but I don’t expect incredible years from either of them.
JDLR had a really good season by BP metrics in 2008 as well...
4.6 WARP according to the player card page. He remains the one really big head scratcher for me. I can see where the system would be coming from with all the other players I think it’s under on, (Helton’s old, Hammel and CarGo don’t have a great history outside of 2009, etc..,) but I just don’t get the De La Rosa projection at all.
Yeah, pretty much every metric improved for him from 2008 to 2009.
Now I’m wondering if his innings pitched were enough to throw some calculations off. I notice other projection systems expect his SO rate to drop as well.
And I wanted to...
KILL Dan Plesac during 30 Clubs in 30 Days last year when he got to us.
So De La Rosa and Hammel
Drop from almost 4 wins apiece to less than 1? They’re both under 30. Do they know something I don’t?
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 1:21 PM MST up reply actions
Wow, 80-82 is pretty harsh.
Going on their recent histories, the rotation is tough to project though.
The system isn't really a big believer in CarGo, either
But that’s probably to be expected given his complete statistical history.
The JDLR projection, however, seems pretty wacky if you consider that last season’s 7 year WARP chart had him being well over a 1.5 WAR player in 2010, and I can’t see what he did in 2009 to make it suddenly so pessimistic.
but computers do take input from
the programmer. I didn’t know if it factors things like that…
sorry for the stupid question….
Because it's become tiresome
In a system like this
if you can’t assign a number and quantify it, there’s no way it can be included. pecota does factor in age regression (and probably to some extent injury risk) through the historic player comparables it does. But there isn’t a programmer sitting entering a projection by hand for each player.
Fangraphs does fan projections now, those would potentially include subjectives like that though.
It wasn't a stupid question, and I don't think RG was smiting you down for bothering to ask
Projection systems are very confusing and mystical
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:46 PM MST up reply actions
wanna hear my new projection system?
The pitcher is gonna pitch at their career line.
The batter is gonna bat at their career line.
Add a bit if they’re young and suffered from bad BABIP or HR/FB% last year
Subtract a but if they’re old and benefited from good BABIP or HR/FB% last year
bam projected
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:16 PM MST up reply actions
Omg
Genius!
Get this man a bucket of money to develop this!
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 3:20 PM MST up reply actions
should've gotten the live chicken...
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 10:56 PM MST up reply actions
PECOTA has been in denial about the humidor for some time now, and it’ll be a while until the pre-humidor days are completely out of PECOTA’s system (if I understand properly how the system generally works, anyway). Last year they were projecting the Rockies to give up like 950 runs as a staff or something ridiculous.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
Yeah that's right
Remember this after the home opener?
after winning ten to three today, only have 68 wins left this season, and can only score 812 more runs. Worse, the pitchers have to somehow allow 937 in the remaining 158 games.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:38 PM MST up reply actions
http://www.purplerow.com/2009/4/10/830236/rockies-beat-phillies-still
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:41 PM MST up reply actions
and then the Rockies spent the next two months trying to prove those predictions correct...
Attention Whore.
That was indeed sobering
I was flying high after the Home Opener.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:44 PM MST up reply actions
Wow, I love the picture and caption
Tulo flying off to save the day!
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 2:08 PM MST up reply actions
PECOTA predicting the Padres to finish better than the Rockies last year
I’m not going to pay attention to it.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:33 PM MST up reply actions
Like any other projection system it does a better job with some players and teams than it does with others. The Rockies tend to be one of those teams that it really misses the mark on.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
I'm discounting it in the Rockies' case, not the overall case
It undervalues what the Rockies have going
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:38 PM MST up reply actions
I agree that it's greatly underrating the rockies in 2010
but they’re still just projections. It is what it is
Yep. Take it or leave it
I leave it
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:42 PM MST up reply actions
I'm not really putting much stock into it, either...
but it is interesting to look at just for the shock value and to laugh at/mock come October.
So we have to wait for October...
for you to exclaim, “Suck it, PECOTA. The Rockies are NL West champs!”
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.
I’m also seeing a projected 82-80 record for the FREAKING NATIONALS.
Hey, Baseball Prospectus. Stand by your projection system. I’ll bet every single one of your writers 100 dollars the Rockies finish with a better record than the Nationals in 2010. Take the bet if you’re that rock-solid behind ‘the most accurate projection system ever’.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
That is borderline unacceptable
The team history rationale doesn’t hold up here
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:39 PM MST up reply actions
Jason Marquis and his patented playoff streak will take that bet.
Seriously though, PECOTA says that both Marquis and J.D. Martin will be more valuable individually for the Nats than the bottom three of our rotation combined. Now I like Martin quite a bit as a young pitcher and think the Nationals got a real steal getting him, but this seems a dubious assertion to make.
for what it's worth
pecota is smoke and mirrors
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:14 PM MST up reply actions
You know what I don't get with all these projections systems?
They just give an expectation. They don’t give a distribution. Maybe they’re assuming some type of normal distribution on all variables, but they could at least give you a sense of the variance. I mean, they put the Yankees at 93 wins, but what are the chances that they will get 98 or 88? I think that’s something that is still missing from sabermetrics in general.
I've actually seen that on some projections, they'll break out percentiles.
I agree though, that could provide more context to some of the numbers.
That does exist
I can’t remember the site, but there is one that gives percentages
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 4:03 PM MST up reply actions
Nobody mentioned yet
Jimmy Gobble and Justin Speier signed minor league contracts.
I’ve always wanted Jimmy Gobble. Now we just need Rocky Cherry…
My former housemate and I have often joked about Jimmy Gobble and Rocky Cherry.
It’s funny that now one of them is in our organization.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 1:50 PM MST up reply actions
I once voted for a guy for some minor office
because his last name was Beer. I love the Gobble signing.
SDcat has come down with a case of the Poseidon Post Plague!
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 1:50 PM MST up reply actions
She's had it for a while
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:51 PM MST up reply actions
It's a good thing Rocky Cherry isn't a Rockies starting pitcher
I can see the headlines: “Colorado puts a Cherry on top of Rocky’s win”
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:51 PM MST up reply actions
You should be a beat writer.
That there is genius punnage.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 1:53 PM MST up reply actions
I am ashamed :(
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:54 PM MST up reply actions
This just in...
Rockies trade Alan Johnson to Florida for Sequoyah Stonecipher.
wakes up from dearm
Aww…
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 1:56 PM MST up reply actions
Hah!
but you left out his middle name Sequoyah Trueblood Stonecipher. The organization really should commit to fielding an entire team of players with silly names.
But awesomeness aside, his middle name will never be announced.
There were some great names in the past draft in addition to Stonechiper. Mike Monster, Jeremy Hazelbaker, etc.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 2:02 PM MST up reply actions
That reminds of back in 2002
when the first names of the starting lineup went, for example, like this:
Juan, Juan, Larry, Todd, Todd, Todd, Jose, Gary, Jason.
And there was another Todd in the bullpen.
I like it when we had
Larry Walker, Todd Helton, and Todd Walker. If only Todd Walker was truly the combination of those two…
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 2:18 PM MST up reply actions
Too bad we didn't have Todd Walker
at the same time as Todds Helton, Zeile, and Hollandsworth. Add in Jones in the bullpen, and we really would have had the corner on Todds.
We had a total of five Jasons on the roster in one way or another at some point last year.
Though Hirsh never made it onto the 25 man roster.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 2:23 PM MST up reply actions
Didn't Alan Roach
Give him the Todd…Walk-errrr treatment the first time he came up accidentally?
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 2:31 PM MST up reply actions
I remember the Todd days
After this game, while driving home from the game and listening to whatever sports talk show was on KOA back then, I remember someone declaring that the player of the game was “Todd”.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 2:20 PM MST up reply actions
At first I only saw the dual 4 RBIs from Zeile and Hollandsworth
and then I noticed that Jones also struck out the side at one point.
Hollandsworth hit the momentum-changing grand slam
Zeile hit the walk-off 3-R home run, Helton put the winning run in scoring position, and Jones struck out the side.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 2:35 PM MST up reply actions
Just saw Renck's post about it
and saw this quote about Greg Smith
Finally, to answer a question that has come up a few times: Yes, Greg Smith is still with the Rockies. And yes, the voodoo doll of his likeness that somone was poking with needles last year appears to have finally vanished.
"I hope so. It can’t get any worse," Smith told me the other day.
I kind of feel bad for the guy.
He really did just have a avalanche of setbacks to his body
It was like he was 80
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 1:56 PM MST up reply actions
we share a birthday
like exact day
my great baseball mind was crying and screaming as I entered the world
his great promising baseball arm was crying and screaming as he entered the world
I have a MS Greg Smith what do you have
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:19 PM MST up reply actions
.....
my bathrobe is cooler
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:22 PM MST up reply actions
I'm waiting for a Rockie to share a b-day w/ me.
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
by prettyinpurple on Jan 28, 2010 4:33 PM MST up reply actions
I have Scott Podsednik's birthday.
Too bad it’s not something else that belongs to him.
Huh
Only Rockie to have my birthday is Aaron Miles.
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 4:55 PM MST up reply actions
Ope
Edgarde Clemente as well…whoever that was >.>
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 4:55 PM MST up reply actions
Is there a list somewhere that has the birth date of the comprehensive all time roster?
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 5:07 PM MST up reply actions
What I looked at was
Baseball reference.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/birthdays.cgi
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 5:11 PM MST up reply actions
Using this tool, it doesn't seem ANY Rockies were born on my birthday.
However, some baseball player from 1878 named Alamazoo Jennings was. So I win.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 5:15 PM MST up reply actions
Going just off of an eye test (I'm not going to go look at every player's history)
I don’t have any Rockies. In fact, I barely have anyone at all notable. The only players to get significant playing time were Jose Vizcaino, Shane Reynolds, Kevin Seitzer, and Jack McCarthy (who played in around 1000 games between 1893 and 1907).
My most notable are probably Ray Durham and Matt Lawton.
Shane Victorino, Luis Valbuena and Rich Harden are the only three active players with mine.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 5:43 PM MST up reply actions
My only active players are
Josh Wilson, Brendan Ryan, and Eric Hacker (who has played in exactly 3 games).
Abd, born in 1854, a dude who shares my nickname
“Blondie Purcell”: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/purcebl01.shtml
88 stolen bases in 1887!
And his middle name is Aloysius
Which is my granddad’s middle name (on my mom’s side). I’ve been working on convincing my wife that we should use that as a middle name for one of our sons. Maybe by the time we have kids I will have convinced her.
by controlled_slide on Jan 29, 2010 10:47 AM MST up reply actions
Rocky Cherry was born on my birthday
Jealous much?
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 5:57 PM MST up reply actions
My wife has Pancho Herrera
Skeeter Scalzi and Fritz Mollwitz. This is a fun game.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 6:10 PM MST up reply actions
My best (and really only) is Christy Mathewson
The only one even loosely connected with the Rockies is Lew Ford. Didn’t we bring him to ST a couple years ago? Only 16 players born on my birthday have played a MLB game in my lifetime, and I’ve heard of only 4 of them. Wow.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 29, 2010 10:49 AM MST up reply actions
What do I win and why?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 29, 2010 4:28 PM MST up reply actions
you win the thread because you share a birthday with
Christy Mathewson…..Your prize is this knowledge :)
Because it's become tiresome
Heh...I share a birthday with
Kit Carson 1912
Pedro Borbon -
Will Foley – 1855
I win
Because it's become tiresome
Dizzy Trout
Heinie Reitz
Farmer Steelman
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
by prettyinpurple on Jan 28, 2010 5:20 PM MST up reply actions
you win because of birthday shared with
awesome names.
I wonder if Farmer Steelman caught Dizzy Trout?
Because it's become tiresome
Haha, maybe.
There’s also Bill McGill.
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
by prettyinpurple on Jan 28, 2010 5:25 PM MST up reply actions
Is there anything Baseball Reference can't do?
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 5:59 PM MST up reply actions
Yeah, Fangraphs has better stats
And Baseball Reference is easier to navigate, easier to look at and has better historical leaderboards. Gun to my head I think I prefer Baseball Reference, but they’re both A+ great baseball sites.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 6:37 PM MST up reply actions
I prefer BR as well.
I was just answering your question about something it couldn’t do.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 6:39 PM MST up reply actions
I know
And I was pontificating on the merits of my favorite websites.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 6:40 PM MST up reply actions
Yeah
I love the history of baseball so I like baseball reference a little better too. I bet there are a lot of folks here who like fangraph better though.
"I won't sign for a penny less than fifteen hundred dollars" Honus Wagner
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 28, 2010 7:59 PM MST up reply actions
I remember using this a couple of years ago to post an all Birthday team on a Baseball Prospectus Unfiltered post
Because I thought mine was pretty good, mainly because I could put above average players at every position except for shortstop as well as five solid SP’s. Although Hal Newhouser is the only HOF’er born on my birthday, the most famous baseball player who shares it is probably this guy.
As for names, the best from my list is probably Claral Gillenwater although I also like Tom Morgan’s nickname of “Plowboy”.
Alex Rios...
Jamey Carroll
Shawn Estes
John Valentin
Manny Mota
Zip Zabel
Huck Betts
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
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by Jeff Aberle on Jan 28, 2010 10:07 PM MST up reply actions
I sort of share Christian Friedrich's birthday
He was born on July 8, 1987 and I was born on July 9, 1987 but I was born at 1:21 in the morning east coast time so if I go by Rockies time (Mountian TIme) I share a birthday with him. :-)
"I won't sign for a penny less than fifteen hundred dollars" Honus Wagner
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 28, 2010 7:56 PM MST up reply actions
My sister shares Todd Helton's birthday. Ugghh, so jealous.
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
by prettyinpurple on Jan 28, 2010 5:09 PM MST up reply actions
maybe we talk the A's out of Kooooz since he's hanging out in Evergreen
or we just kidnap him and put him in the humidor. The Mausoleum is so big they might not even notice he’s missing :)
Because it's become tiresome
He wouldn't take a bench role and can't play second
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 2:34 PM MST up reply actions
I got it
PF hit the chasm!
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 2:46 PM MST up reply actions
golly that might be first time that someone
fell into the CatChasm yay!
Because it's become tiresome
SarCatsm?
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 2:52 PM MST up reply actions
I got it, I did think it was funny.
I’d definitely miss your sense of humor if you took it away from us.
When I saw two stories about him in my Denver Post feed this morning
I had a moment of panic where I thought we worked a trade with Beane. Your joke was “got”. :)
I like grits for breakfast, but stew on the hot corner
…I think I’m forcing that one a bit too much. I would take Stew any day of the week.
I'm pretty sure SDcat is just an alter ego for RMN.
He posts under that ID to a) drive up the post count of all articles and b) mess with the members of PR. Reading her/his comments in this way makes them quite entertaining.
Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity
Especially when they bicker!
/flashback to Smeagol/Gollum scene in LotR
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 3:07 PM MST up reply actions
one uses all caps and .gifs
the other uses ellipses and LOLs
You guys have stumbled onto something here.
Attention Whore.
dig the sig, btw
just don’t get it confused with your other sig, the one about Pitching metrics and learning and all the jazz
Attention Whore.
I resent that sir
I already have an alt
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:21 PM MST up reply actions
what, you want them calling you me?
I’d resent it if I were in your shoes too, woman
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:22 PM MST up reply actions
Hey cat
I bet secretly, behind your avatar, you’re really a big time computer nerd who puts too much stock into advanced statistics and eschews concepts like Clutch and deep down questions the real benefit of “chemistry” and wants to trade Brad Hawpe.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:25 PM MST up reply actions
You want to trade Brad Hawpe????
I knew it!
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 3:28 PM MST up reply actions
You know what I bet the Padres would take him
and then I could watch him more often :)
Because it's become tiresome
That RMN bets secretly?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 3:28 PM MST up reply actions
We'll all know the truth
When ZombieSDcat shows up
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 3:24 PM MST up reply actions
you know what my alt is cool and original
Purple Row: Take this personally
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:26 PM MST up reply actions
New avatar
Go go!
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 3:32 PM MST up reply actions
Ahhh
Well then, you just need to save that picture and post it yourself whenever Hawpe happens ;-)
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 3:36 PM MST up reply actions
I was gonna PS a Jaws logo
with Hawpe and do the HAWPE thing instead of JAWS
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:33 PM MST up reply actions
and really purrfect
because he will rise from the dead this season, go to the AllStar game again, and hit the winning home run in the WS….
Because it's become tiresome
I was the same way about Atkins last year
Hearing everyone talk about trading him, but I thought he’d be fine, show them all wrong…yeah, saw how that turned out >.<
So maybe this’ll be different…maybe
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 3:38 PM MST up reply actions
Not to the extent of a sub-.700 OPS or wherever he landed
but maybe an Atkins 2008?
I know not everyone is the same, I’m just seeing similarities between the two.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:42 PM MST up reply actions
I meant 2009 Atkins
but either way, while Hawpe has a few issues I don’t see the rapid decline that Atkins has had.
Maybe not a full Atkins
But along the lines of “underperform and get regularly replaced in the lineup with a youngun”
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 3:48 PM MST up reply actions
Wait, underperform vs. what?
I would be on board with trading Hawpe for the right package but Hawpe is nothing like Atkins.
Atkins OPS 2006 – .965
Atkins OPS 2007 – .853
Atkins OPS 2008 – .780
Atkins OPS 2009 – .650
Hawpe OPS 2006 – .898
Hawpe OPS 2007 – .926
Hawpe OPS 2008 – .879
Hawpe OPS 2009 – .903
Hawpe can be streaky as hell but he’s been fairly consistent year to year with his bat.
Huh, never looked at the numbers like that
Guess it would be shocking.
Well then, here’s to hoping that Hawpe remains consistent this season!
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 3:54 PM MST up reply actions
I'm on board with you here
Hawpe’s perceived decline is more just that we have more surrounding talented outfielders to challenge him, not that his performance is actually getting any worse
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 4:04 PM MST up reply actions
.650
How sad is it what the sponsor of his Baseball Reference page says?
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 3:46 PM MST up reply actions
Delusional.
He could do none of that
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:47 PM MST up reply actions
He hasn't logged back in yet
I wonder if he really will.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 3:51 PM MST up reply actions
well I'm more thinking we're trying to make Dumb and Dumberer here
the humor before was just in how out of this world the whole thing was
we’re trying to fabricate spontaneity.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:53 PM MST up reply actions
he emailed me last night
thanking me for my concern and that he intends to stop by again soon
Attention Whore.
Yeah, I know
But he hasn’t logged in yet
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 3:56 PM MST up reply actions
NOO WAY.
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
by prettyinpurple on Jan 28, 2010 4:40 PM MST up reply actions
I didn't read your whole comment
It’s crazy at The Office today
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 3:28 PM MST up reply actions
USA today has anarticle on the Rockies here.
"I won't sign for a penny less than fifteen hundred dollars" Honus Wagner
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 28, 2010 3:54 PM MST reply actions
facepalm
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 3:56 PM MST up reply actions
Heh
Despite the lame title, it actually does a decent job breaking down the team. Nothing new to any of the regulars here though, mirrors most of the conclusions we’ve come to.
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Jan 28, 2010 3:59 PM MST up reply actions
Seth Smith: Doesn't Exist
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 4:00 PM MST up reply actions
He's like a unicorn
"I won't sign for a penny less than fifteen hundred dollars" Honus Wagner
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 28, 2010 4:00 PM MST up reply actions
A dead unicorn
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 4:05 PM MST up reply actions
yeah, I noticed that too
but it’s kind of like
HERE’S THE ROCKIES
PITCHING
FIELDING
BATTING
TULO!
alsosethsmithCOME SEE EM! BIG DEAL!
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 4:02 PM MST up reply actions
I'm being playful, I'm glad that USA recognizes us
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 4:03 PM MST up reply actions
if you look at the comment DIRECTLY ABOVE YOURS
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 4:16 PM MST up reply actions
I was surprised at the accuracy of the article
As well as how thorough it was and how many more advanced stats there were. It wasn’t all batting average and wins.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 4:16 PM MST up reply actions
Got my Opening Day tix in the mail today! Woot!
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
Don't worry, I'll post pix of the view and stuff after Opening Day.
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
by prettyinpurple on Jan 28, 2010 4:59 PM MST up reply actions
maybe : )
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
by prettyinpurple on Jan 28, 2010 5:01 PM MST up reply actions
Me Too!!
See ya there.
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
I'll be the guy in a orange shirt EVERY Monday...Broncos are my team win or lose.
So another reason to love baseball
watching MLBN and they showed Mitch Williams giving up a home run at Anaheim on Seat Cushion night. As soon as he gave up the homerun, the fans threw their cushions back onto the field.
That made me laugh, hard!
Because it's become tiresome
Oh, gosh. haha
Bored. Lazy. Crazy. Screaming. Counting. Another day in the life of a Rockaholic.
by prettyinpurple on Jan 28, 2010 5:04 PM MST up reply actions
nooooooooooo
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 7:48 PM MST up reply actions
If we sign him, it'll be weird.
What would we do with another SS? He’s not a utility player, and he hasn’t played any other position besides SS (or DH) since 2000 – ON THE EXPOS. Even then, it was only for two games.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 6:40 PM MST up reply actions
I'd imagine that transitioning between short and any of the infield positions would be the easiest transition
Barmes did it well.
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 6:41 PM MST up reply actions
Yes.
But 10 years at one position takes time to change. Going into ST, he’s a SS and an SS only. He’d need to re-learn the ability to play 2B, and he’s never played 3B once – NOT ONCE – in his professional career, which began in 1994.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 6:44 PM MST up reply actions
I almost don't recognize you with your sig
"I won't sign for a penny less than fifteen hundred dollars" Honus Wagner
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 28, 2010 8:06 PM MST up reply actions
Interesting,
As a starter, I’d be hesitant, as a backup? I don’t see much problem with it. He’s probably underrated coming off of a down year mostly in Oakland, which really dampens offensive production. I guess the issue would be if people really thought EY would be that much better than him that there would be a significant opportunity cost for 2010 that would outweigh the benefits of delaying Young’s salary clock. From a team building standpoint, I’m not sure if that’s a really strong case.
It's hard to tell if his UZR last year was a blip
or a trend. His bat, right now, has been pretty consistent, Consistently poor.
My guess is conditioning...
Cabrera really seems to have become a universal pariah in about a year after being lauded as a steal, and the contrarian in me sees opportunity in this. I’d be careful to check it out that he’s back in shape and ready to be an asset, but I wouldn’t let one year of total suckitude be enough to dissuade me given the career value he’s had.
But how do we teach a 36 year old to play a position he's never played professionally?
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 7:20 PM MST up reply actions
You're overstating the issue.
Elite level shortstops, and anybody who makes the MLB at the position probably qualifies, should have little trouble switching to any infield position defensively. Third base would be less of a concern than learning the pivot at second, but Cabrera likely does have a lot of practice at that as most teams will drill all their middle infielders at both positions in case of an emergency.
Even when they're as old as Cabrera?
Simply sounds to me like a disaster waiting to happen.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 7:31 PM MST up reply actions
A disaster
waiting to happen was Nick Johnson playing left field in Coors back in 2002.
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This 35 year old shortstop didn’t have much trouble switching to third after not playing it for 14 years.
Again, the differences between fielding third and fielding short are small and will benefit the shortstop. Second? I’m not sure if I’ve seen any evidence that former SS’s sliding over there hurts them either. Grudzielanek was 30 when he transitioned without much hitch. You’d be surprised at all the nifty tricks geezers in their 30’s could do. Yeah, the brain loss has already started technically, but it’s not likely to be noticeable until at least 40.
Keeping in mind that my following of MLB baseball spans a measly four years...
… whether its simply inexperience or hyperbolic pessimism, I will be truly shocked if Cabrera does not look like a goofball at both of those positions.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 7:42 PM MST up reply actions
cautious skepticism is usually warranted
and it provides good balance to us overly optimistic types, but in this case I think it’s unwarranted. The real threat with Cabrera defensively is that 2009 wasn’t an aberration and that lost ability would hit him whichever position he plays, but it would have little to do with switching positions.
It very well may be the case.
But I will keep my skepticism until I see it, and if I do, I will have learned a lesson.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 7:57 PM MST up reply actions
Agreed, and Barmes agrees with you too
RMN: How difficult was it to transition from SS to 2B, especially at the MLB level?
Clint: Actually, it felt pretty easy for me. I got to the point where defensively I felt very confident and very comfortable at the SS side, and honestly I believe that if you can play SS you can play pretty much anywhere on the field. Playing a little bit of 3B, I didn’t feel like I had many issues there. Making the move from SS to 2B, it’s still playing up the middle, I enjoyed learning and working on the turns at 2B, and I feel like I picked that up pretty quick. As far as standing on the other side of the diamond and at a little bit different angle, once I got over that (which didn’t take long), I felt very comfortable and confident over there as well.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 7:51 PM MST up reply actions
As fans I feel like we are playing a game of dodgeball
"I won't sign for a penny less than fifteen hundred dollars" Honus Wagner
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 28, 2010 8:03 PM MST up reply actions
Pick the Reds!!!!!!!
Pick the Reds!!!!!! I’ll chip is a few bucks.
Reds fan here
Over at Red Reporter, we’re all rooting for ya in the Orlando Cabrera sweepstakes…..Go Rockies go! :)
Oh and Rosenthal sez that Barmes would be super-utility and Cabrera would start at 2B.
My fantasy football team this year? Lippincott's Shorts
oh, well if Rosenthal said it, then it must be true.
Really, this tidbit of him starting over Barmes just makes me dubious that there’s any truth at all to it. I don’t think you understand how much the team likes Barmes.
Oh yeah I know Rosenthal can be taken with a grain of salt
But Tim Brown is usually spot on, so I do believe the part about Orlando choosing between the Rockies and Reds.
My fantasy football team this year? Lippincott's Shorts
by cesarhernandez on Jan 28, 2010 7:22 PM MST up reply actions
i would cry
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 28, 2010 7:58 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Apparently the Mets new pitching target is Josh Fogg....
ahahahaahaahahah
Ubaldomania.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 28, 2010 7:15 PM MST reply actions
hopefully just as a pitcher.
But with Omar, who knows.
Ubaldomania.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 28, 2010 7:22 PM MST up reply actions
I can't
wait to see him in the warming up in Citi Field’s bullpen.
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Fogg or suicidal Mr Met?
Ubaldomania.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 28, 2010 7:29 PM MST up reply actions
Both!
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Now that Tatis is off the table..
And our interest for Mora is bubbling, do we all agree here that Mora is the answer for our right-handed backup infielder.?
I hate bandwagoners.
If we sign Cabrera, I doubt we sign Mora.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 8:40 PM MST up reply actions
unless we sign both and trade Barmes!
like Rosenthal suggests we’ve considered.
Yeah, right now it looks like it will be either of those two. I think most of us here would prefer Mora. I’d probably be less upset by Cabrera than everybody else it seems, though.
I wouldn't doubt his defense
I just figure he’s out of offensive gas and would be pretty awful in general. I mean, we already have Barmes, and at least he has power to speak of.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 11:00 PM MST up reply actions
How come WolfMarauder doesn’t have an e-mail envelope next to his name like everyone else at the bottom of this screen?
JFK
Probably because his e-mail address isn't in his profile
by controlled_slide on Jan 28, 2010 9:16 PM MST up reply actions
Yep.
No public e-mail address.
NEVER SURRENDER DREAMS
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
I just added it, but it doesn't seem to have mattered.
by WolfMarauder on Jan 28, 2010 9:19 PM MST up reply actions
Strange.
NEVER SURRENDER DREAMS
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
Redding touts Tracy as reason for signing....
http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100128&content_id=7991414&vkey=news_col&fext=.jsp&c_id=col
Because it's become tiresome
sounds to me like he really wants a starting spot with the big league club.....
Because it's become tiresome
He should have realized that that was just about out of the question when he didn't go back to the Mets
"I won't sign for a penny less than fifteen hundred dollars" Honus Wagner
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 28, 2010 10:38 PM MST up reply actions
*snort*
I’m sure he does
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 28, 2010 11:00 PM MST up reply actions
I guess we won't have to worry about Redding being around past ST then
He would have to pray for an injury, then legitimately beat out Greg Smith, Jhoulys Chacin, Esmil Rogers, Franklin Morales and Greg Reynolds.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 29, 2010 11:08 AM MST up reply actions
I can haz FelipayLopeez?
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