Sunday Rockpile: Are the Rockies really that desperate for position prospects?
I thought I'd take this a bit of a different direction this morning from the ongoing saga of the club's search for a player to fill out the infield. If you want to read more about that, Troy Renck's column at the Post regarding the club's open mind at second base is a good place to start.
Instead, what I want to look at is an oft repeated claim about the Rockies farm system. Yeah, it's time for a good, old-fashioned prospect post.
Kevin Goldstein (from his Rockies Top 11 Prospects column for Baseball Prospectus subscribers):
While the organization is desperately short of position players, that fact is mitigated with the amount of young, potentially elite-level players already in the big leagues.
John Sickels said this in his Rockies Top 20 post:
The hitting is weaker. Rosario could turn into a very good catcher but is a long way away. Young and McKenry will be ready much sooner. I like both of them a lot and I think both are underrated generally. God knows if any of the tools infielders will pan out.
I could go on, there seems to be a running theme of late that the Rockies lack position players in the system, with Goldstein going particularly far out on a limb in stating the team is "desperately short" in that category. Yet, as the Keith Law quote togb posted in yesterdays Rockpile indicated, there's not quite a consensus that we're so bad off.
Today, I thought it might be instructive to take a look at the minor league positional talent within the NL West division to see how the Rockies are doing compared to their peers.
I'll try to list each team's top two or three prospects at each position, and come up with some sort of hierarchy.
Catcher:
- San Francisco - Buster Posey, Tommy Joseph
- Colorado - Wilin Rosario, Michael McKenry
- San Diego - Mitch Canham
- Arizona - John Hester
- Los Angeles - Luke May
There's a gap between Posey and the Rockies' catchers, but then a larger gap between them and the next three, who are all more or less journeymen at this point and relatively interchangeable. If the Dodgers had Carlos Santana still, they'd be at the top. Second best in the division at a premium position isn't a bad start for the Rockies, however.
First Base:
- Arizona - Brandon Allen, Ryan Wheeler
- Colorado - Ben Paulsen, Kiel Roling
- San Diego - Allan Dykstra
- Los Angeles - Jerry Sands, Austin Gallagher
- San Francisco - Brandon Belt
Another position where there's a pretty large gap in the division after Allen, but in this case it's mostly because he's so advanced compared to the rest of the division's best 1B prospects. We'll see how 2010 shapes up, but this is a second position where the Rockies aren't falling far behind their peers, save for the D-backs, who are very deep in 1B's for some reason.
Second Base/Shortstop:
- Los Angeles - Dee Gordon, Ivan DeJesus
- Colorado - Chris Nelson, Eric Young Jr., Hector Gomez
- San Francisco - Brandon Crawford, Nick Noonan, Ehire Adrianza
- Arizona - Chris Owings, David Nick, Pedro Ciriaco, Rusty Ryal
- San Diego - Lance Zawadski, Drew Cumberland, Jonathan Galvez
Gordon's a high quality shortstop, but still pretty raw. I think he's been getting a little overrated this winter (he's not going to be close to Tulo at his peak) but he's still the class of the division in this category. The Giants and Rockies trios share some similarities and are probably pretty close to each other in raw talent, but I gave the nod to Colorado because I'm biased and because Nelson and EY2 are at least at the AAA level in 2010. Arizona could be moving up this list pretty quickly. Owings and Nick seem pretty talented thus far, they're just young and far from the majors. San Diego's got a pretty big issue with a lack in the infield/catching portion of up the middle core type of players. This bodes well for Everth Cabrera's job security.
Third Base:
- San Diego - James Darnell, Logan Forsythe, Edinson Rincon
- Arizona - Bobby Borchering
- Colorado - Darin Holcomb, Nolan Arenado
- San Francisco - Conor Gillaspie
- Los Angeles - Pedro Baez
The Padres are pretty deep at the hot corner, outweighing Borchering's potential, which is very high, but the kid is still a few seasons away from contributing for the D-backs. I really don't think it's a stretch to put the Rockies duo there.
Corner OF:
- San Diego - Jaff Decker, Sawyer Carroll, Kellen Kulbacki
- San Francisco - Thomas Neal, Roger Kieschnick, Chris Dominguez, Rafael Rodriguez
- Los Angeles - Andrew Lambo, Trayvon Robinson, Kyle Russell
- Arizona - Cole Gillespie, Marc Krauss, Colin Cowgill
- Colorado - Cole Garner, Tyler Massey,
My thesis for this entire post will basically be that those, such as Goldstein, who think the Rockies desperately lack position prospects, are really just saying that the Rockies lack corner outfield prospects. That's not really debatable, but as far as system priorities go, corner outfield should be pretty low on the list.
Center field
- San Diego - Donovan Tate, Everett Williams
- Colorado - Charlie Blackmon, Tim Wheeler
- Arizona - A.J. Pollock, Ollie Linton
- San Francisco - Francisco Peguero, Darren Ford
- Los Angeles - ???, I'll fill this in with an edit. I'm already late and can't come up with a name off the top of my head.
Again, the Rockies are one of the top two teams in the division. Overall, that's four times I ranked them second, once third and once fifth. Maybe it's that whole jack-of all trades, master of none sort of thing they have going that has people down on the system.
At any rate, however, I just don't see the lack of positional depth that's been asserted. I see a lack of corner OF's and a lack of All-Star level talents anywhere, but not a lack of prospects. Certainly nothing that's going to cripple them in this division anytime soon given the young talent we already have and the overall underwhelming state of everybody else's system as well. For what it's worth, each team's average rank for this little exercise would look something like this:
- San Diego 2.33
- Colorado 2.67
- Arizona 3.00
- San Francisco 3.17
- Los Angeles 3.83
28 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Mora
I think most of us would have preferred Orlando Hudson, and even Felipe Lopez, but Mora is a decent plan B I suppose. MLBTR mentioned he has played SS and 2B in the past (I can’t remember him at anything but 3B), so I guess he’s a bit more versatile then I thought.
I honestly thought Mora was always the best fit
from the moment the infield names were first tossed around. Hudson or Lopez would likely have been too expensive and would have wanted to start, and I think it’s pretty clear the organisation is comitted to Barmes at second for at least one more year.
Campaigning for more day baseball games since 2006
by djmbluemoon on Jan 31, 2010 10:25 AM MST up reply actions
Mora was a distant second for me behind Tatis.
Given the options, and the price, I am more than happy with this signing, though.
by Greg Stanwood on Jan 31, 2010 12:19 PM MST up reply actions
I tend to agree that we don't have very high impact minor league hitters.
I’m not ready to count on H. Gomez or Nelson, or any of the extremely low-ball guys yet (Like Nolan and Wheeler). This could be a critical year for those guys.
But that’s really not much of a concern to me at this juncture. Most of our team is young and we have great pitching prospects.
"CarGo had to make some repairs to it. They called it a kitchen accident, but he was performing surgery. On teh lazor."
Hollidayrain Music
We agreed to sign with Mora
http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/8457069746
That was quick. Hopefully we didn’t jump too early.
Impossible not to have positive thoughts.
I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.
See my FP story, just posted.
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Jan 31, 2010 10:25 AM MST up reply actions
Oh, didn't see it there
Impossible not to have positive thoughts.
I want Sam Deduno to pitch already.
by bballrox4717 on Jan 31, 2010 10:26 AM MST up reply actions
I love any list that has the Dodgers last. :)
Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything. ~Toby Harrah, 1983
Excellent perspective Rox Girl!
That’s a great way to look at it. I think also that having a strong club overall is beneficial. The fact that we are showcasing strong young players in the majors shows that they will either make great long term signings or will have high trade value with which we can retool our minor league system. And, Since the core of our talent is young we will participate in several drafts before we begin talking free agency with our current position players. Also having great young pitching talent will go a long way towards freeing up money for free agents or again, trade leverage. I see very little weakness with our farm and major league club at this point.
I wonder if Bobby Borchering...
Doesn’t wind up an OF/1B as he’s not great on defense. Obviously, he’s still young but it could be a drawback if he doesn’t develop.
Also aren’t corner OFs sometimes conversions from other positions? So say we move Wheeler or Blackmon over – we have a huge outfield after all that requires guys who can really cover some ground.
It remains
to be seen if Wheeler can stay in center.
NEVER SURRENDER DREAMS
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
by Russ Oates on Jan 31, 2010 10:59 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
I forgot to mention Delta Cleary in center, anyway
I don’t know if that shift would really affect the way I’d rank these teams in either position.
hawpe and holliday were converted infielders
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 31, 2010 12:29 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
LAD OF Prospects
Andrew Lambo and Trajon Robinson who KLaw ranks at #8 and #6 respectively in the Dodgers system overall. Gordon was ranked by Sickels as the #19 top prospect amongst hitters in all of baseball, and Law ranked him as his #38 prospect, Callis has him at #35. And Law heard from two different scouts who compared Gordon to Jimmy Rollins, but with a little less power. BP’s Perrotto compares him to Jose Reyes.
Lambo, with a solid AA season, could the LAD left-fielder in 2011. It is true that the Dodgers have more pitching prospects than hitting prospects, and some may see time in LA in 2010-2011-Josh Lindblom, Chris Withrow, and Aaron Miller who could be fast-tracked. And Elbert could win the 5th spot in the rotation. Ethan Martin is a few years away.
raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com
The sentiment is often overblown
Colorado may lack the dynamic Desmond Jennings type position player, but they do have quality depth around the diamond, and even though the greatest influx of position players have come from the last two drafts, several of these guys are closer than we think.
I’ve heard from a decent source that Roling is projected to skip High A and begin the season as Tulsa’s first baseman. Baseball America suggests that Kent Matthes may jump A ball altogether to join Tulsa’s outfield. That would then suggest that Tulsa would have a lineup that includes Blackmon, Gomez, Rosario, Roling, Matthes, and possibly Chris Nelson. If that doesn’t sound intriguing to prospect fans…
The Rockies simply aren’t in need of adding many positions prospects to its current lineup, so the fact that their most promising hitters are in the lower levels should be irrelevant. Besides, the Rockies’ farm system seems poised for a position player breakout this year with so many chances for guys to make big strides. Would it be a stretch for one of Gomez or Rosario to put his tools together to post big numbers in the Texas League? Would it shock anyone of Tim Wheeler showed signs of becoming the left handed Hunter Pence; a guy that gets the absolute most of his good but not spectacular tools? Do we aready have our elite position prospect in Nolan Arenado, who showed very mature skills in Casper and is ready to go Ian Stewart on the Asheville scene? Will the light come on for athletes Delta Cleary, Tyler Massey, or Helder Velazquez? Is this the coming out year for collegiate standouts Joe Sanders, Ben Paulsen, or Avery Barnes?
Colorado lacks the “sure thing” position prospects, but they are so deep in interesting prospects that it’s hard not to a couple players make a major breakthrough this year.
by David OhNo on Jan 31, 2010 3:34 PM MST reply actions 4 recs
So how excited
should we be about Kiel Roling?
Should we see a guy who will be able to bring some nice power to 1b once Helton is gone, or do we look at his numbers so far and see a high BABIP and a spike in his k-rate?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Working on the post-production of Rowbot Radio Episode 1.
Premiering tomorrow morning, remember everyone!
Oh, I've not forgotten
Looking forward to it
by controlled_slide on Jan 31, 2010 7:35 PM MST up reply actions
That's sad
I have class from 9-4:15 and a meeting from 4:15-6 tomorrow. I will check it out when I get a chance.
JFK
It's being posted VERY early.
If you live in the mountain timezone, barring any technical issues, it should be up on the site at 4:00 AM, giving you time to download it before leaving for class.
by Greg Stanwood on Jan 31, 2010 10:16 PM MST up reply actions
Two words you overlooked..
Scott Beerer.
He will be in the outfield mix by September.
Donate to charity by shopping for Purple Row Merchandise at:
Purple Row Cares
by Charlie77 on Feb 1, 2010 7:10 PM MST via mobile reply actions
that'd be a hell of a story, I won't lie
Purple Row: Take this personally
http://www.youtube.com/user/rockiesmagicnumber
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
by Andrew Martin on Feb 2, 2010 11:43 AM MST up reply actions




















