Purple Row Awards: Ron Gardenhire, Bud Black Do Stuff To Win Baseball Games, Manager Awards

by Russ Oates on Oct 18, 2010 11:00 AM MDT in Purple Row Awards

Baseball managers come and go. They are recycled routinely after being canned in one place and then another and another and another. You know how it goes. The Rockies' own Jim Tracy has followed that path since he made his major league managerial debut in 2001 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, managing the Pirates for two years, and then moving to his current position in 2009 after Clint Hurdle was fired.

We all know how that move worked out. Firing Clint Hurdle was the sine qua non of turning that team around, and Jim Tracy wound up winning the 2009 NL Manager of the Year Award. But how much did Jim Tracy himself turn around the team? It's one of those things that is hard to quantify. Would the Rockies have done better if Don Baylor became manager over Tracy? (Oh, hey. Look over there. Baylor's looking for a manager's gig now.)

Cliff Corcoran of Sports Illustrated wrote a piece this August asking how much of an impact managers really have over the course of a season. While he doesn't offer a definitive answer, Corcoran suggests that a manager is equivalent to the top setup men in the game. No way to prove it, but it's possible.

Most of the time the results show up as a ranking of those managers in the postseason (just don't tell that to Joe Girardi in 2006, who won the award by keeping the Marlins in contention, but ultimately finished below .500. He was fired that same season). With one exception, our own results reflect that as well.

In the American League it was a close vote between the Minnesota Twins' Ron Gardenhire and the Tampa Bay Rays' Joe Maddon. Both managers led their respective teams to division titles, and Maddon had quite the time taking the AL East away from the New York Yankees. Ultimately, Gardenhire won out in the voting due to three first-place votes, two more than Maddon had. Only two points separated the managers.

Texas Rangers manager Ron Washington took third place, and finished only one point behind Maddon. He led the Rangers to a division title in a weak AL West. Jeff and Wolf gave their third-place votes to Orioles manager Buck Showalter, who led the team to a 34-23 record over the final 57 games of the season.

NL winner and full results after the jump.

Like our AL Manager of the Year, the NL Manager of the Year is no retread through the league. San Diego's Bud Black moved from being the Los Angeles Angels' pitching coach to the Padres' manager in the fall of 2006. Under Black, the Padres have finished in every position except for first. Black had his best showing this year with a 90-72 second-place finish. The Padres unexpectedly commanded the NL West for most of the season and during the summer rewarded Black with a contract extension through 2013 with club options for 2014 and 2015.

Bobby Cox took second place as he went off into the wild blue yonder.

Though Bobby Cox lost in his last game as a manager, it was a class act at the end of the game by the teams and fans.

Dusty Baker took the Cincinnati Reds to a 91-71 record and an NL Central title. The Reds appeared in the playoffs for the first time since 1995. As a reward, Baker received an extension.

Bruce Bochy led his San Francisco Giants to a 92-70 record for an NL West crown, and Charlie Manuel allowed his Phillies to play their way to an NL East title and the best record in the majors (97-65)

Here are the full voting results for the AL:

	Russ	Jeff	Fish	Mart	Bryan	Silverblood	WM
1	Ron W	Maddon	Ron G	Ron W	Ron G	Ron W	Ron G
2	Ron G	Ron G	Maddon	Maddon	Ron W	Maddon	Maddon
3	Maddon	Showalter	Ron W	Ron G	Maddon	Ron G	Showalter

And the final tally:

Manager	Points
Ron G	15
Maddon	13
Ron W	12
Showalter	2

The NL results:

	Russ	Jeff	Fish	A-Mart	Bryan	Silverblood	WM
1	Black	Cox	Black	Black	Black	Baker	Cox
2	Bochy	Black	Manuel	Bochy	Baker	Black	Black
3	Baker	Bochy	Cox	Manuel	Bochy	Cox	Baker

The final tally:

Manager	Points
Black	18
Cox	8
Baker	7
Bochy	6
Manuel	3

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Comments

“Hi, I’m Ron Gardenhire. My team masks my horrible in-game pitching decisions because most of the time they are more talented than the opposition and the opposition’s manager is paying no attention to the game. Also, Nick Punto Nick Punto Nick Punto.”

At best, he gets credit for making decisions in which he really had no choice. If Punto hadn’t been hurt, there is no doubt that Gardy would have run him out there at third or short throughout the second half. Twins fans are lucky that Valencia was hot, otherwise I’m sure they would have seen a healthy dose of the far less talented Matt Tolbert.

by deacs on Oct 18, 2010 11:23 AM MDT reply actions

It's personally my opinion that no manager in baseball consistently makes good decisions, so voting for this one was tough for me.

Maddon IMO comes the closest of any current manager in MLB right now. Manny Acta would be a good choice, but he’s not managing anymore.

I think that baseball teams are still handing their managerial reins over to traditional, old school managers who make statistically horrible decisions is incredible. There’s definitely a market inefficiency to exploit there if any team is bold enough to do it.

If just making better decisions could get teams 1-2 more wins (value of a top setup man), that would be a pretty cheap and easy fix, wouldn’t it?

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by Jeff Aberle on Oct 18, 2010 11:56 AM MDT up reply actions

The best thing I can say about how to value a managers’ lineup and in-game decisions is that they may not win many games, but they can definitely lose games. Perhaps they can only take away wins.

I don’t think it really matters much except in small samples like the playoffs. Over the course the reg season, good/bad luck may balance out the wins lost (or won) by a manager’s decisions. But in the playoffs, when AL contests become like the last two minutes of a basketball game, a manager’s decisions definitely matter. Gardy’s poor feel for his team’s strengths and weaknesses is evident and costly during these short series.

by deacs on Oct 18, 2010 12:04 PM MDT up reply actions

Conversely

Managing egos and confidence for young players is important as well. If players would rather take orders from Don Mattingly instead of Jeff Aberle, it might not be as large of a market inefficiency.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 18, 2010 12:12 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

My spreadsheets would lead them to victory.

Winning is the best respect.

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by Jeff Aberle on Oct 18, 2010 12:36 PM MDT up reply actions

Like Lisa Simpson?

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by Russ Oates on Oct 18, 2010 12:40 PM MDT up reply actions

I like what Dave Cameron said about Eric Wedge’s hiring:

He got his managing chops in Cleveland, a similarly minded front office, and has experience in dealing with GMs who aren’t putting together traditional rosters. There were problems between the field staff and the front office this year, and I have no doubt that Jack was looking for someone who would be more willing to work with them on things they wanted to accomplish. He might not be a stats guy himself, but knowing how to work with an organization that uses sabermetric thinking was one of the things that Wedge offered that none of the other candidates did.

Ultimately, both the manager and the front office have to be oriented towards new statistics, otherwise they will hang each other out to dry. The manager has to know when the sabermetric GM decides to acquire a low-cost reliever just to fill out the pen, so that he does not mistake that FA as someone to use in a situation of any significant leverage, etc.

by deacs on Oct 18, 2010 12:45 PM MDT up reply actions

Isn't Manny Acta the manager of the Indians?

Or did you know that and mean what you said? ;)

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by Paleface Destro on Oct 18, 2010 9:42 PM MDT up reply actions

This was definitely the most difficult set to vote on for me.

There’s really no semi-objective reason why I chose Gardenhire first, or Showalter over Washington, or some such. I think for the most part it had to do with how surprised I was by their performance under their tenure, but I totally ranked Cox #1 for the NL because it was his final season, so my standards changed.

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by Greg Stanwood on Oct 18, 2010 12:35 PM MDT reply actions

Bud Black?

Really?

On August 25, coolstandings gave the Padres a 97.2% chance to make the playoffs and a 93.3% chance to win the division. That makes the Padres 14-23 finish the 7th worse collapse to miss the playoffs in the HISTORY OF BASEBALL. In fact, no team in the league was worse than the Padres from August 25th on.

I understand that they overachieved all season long but the manager of a team who chokes away a division like that should not recieve praise at the end of a season.

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 18, 2010 1:57 PM MDT reply actions

Or, from a different angle, Bud Black kept a team that no one thought had a chance at the playoffs in contention for the bulk of the season. He oversaw a team that had to drastically overachieve just to have a shot at .500 baseball. That their true talent level finally caught up with them is no knock on Black.*

*I don’t believe any of this, but it makes as much sense as blaming the collapse on the manager.

by deacs on Oct 18, 2010 2:04 PM MDT up reply actions

I'm not saying it's all his fault

I’m just saying that he was the captain of the ship when it went down.

In many cities a collpase like that will get you fired.

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 18, 2010 2:41 PM MDT up reply actions

Like where?

Not even the Mets dump their managers immediately after an epic collapse. Willie Randolph got two months into another season and Jerry Manuel was given years to tinker.

I’m sure I’m missing some obvious stuff here, but… just because the manager is fired for the collapse doesn’t mean the manager is responsible for the collapse.

by deacs on Oct 18, 2010 2:44 PM MDT up reply actions

Well Boston and New York both fired their most recent managers after seasons in which they made the playoffs

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 18, 2010 2:50 PM MDT up reply actions

Joe Torre was not fired, he was not offered a contract that suited him. He was offered a one year contract for $5M (with incentives up to $8M), and wanted a longer deal.

Grady Little, indeed, was fired after a collapse in the ALCS. But that is an entirely different situation than the Padres: the RS had expectations, were in the playoffs, and were built and paid to win.

Those are not the same as being fired for an August-September collapse.

by deacs on Oct 18, 2010 2:55 PM MDT up reply actions

And Randolph should have been fired after that collapse in 2007

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 18, 2010 2:51 PM MDT up reply actions

you have to include the whole season, not just the last month

that’s why its manager of the YEAR

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 18, 2010 2:35 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

Yes but the journey you take to get to your win total matters in the court of public opinion

When you have the best record in the NL with 37 games to play and a 97.2% chance to make the playoffs you have to close the deal. If my team suffered a collapse of that magnitude I’d be sick to my stomach all offseason.

Nationally, the Padres 2010 season will be remember for the colllapse, not for the way they overachieved

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 18, 2010 2:48 PM MDT up reply actions

I think it'll be remembered for both.

Imagine – if they’d gone 14-23 in the first few weeks and then put the rest of their season together you’d laud him to the skies, right?

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by biondino on Oct 18, 2010 2:52 PM MDT up reply actions

I agree

Also, people who don’t live in NL West territories (or follow NL West teams from outside those areas) won’t remember the Padres at all because they’ll only remember the Giants getting beat in the NLCS.

Even without that, you’re assuming people will forget that the Padres had no expectations for winning coming into the year. If people are knowledgeable enough about baseball to remember the seventh worst collapse in history, etc, they are probably knowledgeable enough to remember that the Padres had a low payroll and unknown players aside from Adrian.

by deacs on Oct 18, 2010 2:58 PM MDT up reply actions

Yes,

because the way you arrive at your destination matters. There are few things worse in sports than having your team in control all season long and then falling apart down the stretch.

On the flip side, there are few things better in sports than having your team make an amazing late season run.

Even though the win totals would be the same either way the fans would percieve the two seasons entirly differently, and this is one of those cases where perception is reality.

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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 18, 2010 3:09 PM MDT up reply actions

You are entitled to your opinion

But if you allow that a manager has significant impact on a team’s fortunes (which is indeed suspect), you wtoo never convince me that a month sample size supercedes one that is five times as long, regardless of order

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 18, 2010 3:29 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

Man. you are so wrong about Gardenhire....

The Twins players win DESPITE him….until they get into the playoffs.

I grew up a Twins fan, so I follow them in the AL. Most avid Twins friends are continually dumbfounded by his level of gross incompetence in strategic decision making. They will prattle on and on about his stupid moves or on not looking at simple statistics such as OBP.

Correlation with a team’s winning record does not mean he is a good manager. Great drafts, good player development, and supplementing with a few free agents is an excellent strategy for winning, and that is all front office stuff.

by RoxSox on Oct 18, 2010 2:10 PM MDT reply actions