Saturday Rockpile: Will the 2011 Rockies Be Six Wins Better Than 2010 Club? Kuroda Would Have Certainly Helped...

by Bryan Kilpatrick on Nov 13, 2010 8:54 AM MST in Rockpile

MLB -- How the Diamondbacks, Brewers, Mariners, Indians and more benefit by doing nothing this offseason - ESPN
In this Insider-only piece, ESPN.com's Peter Keating came up with a statistic he calls the "Fruit Bowl Rankings." He took how many combined wins teams lost due to players not meeting statistical projections and also added in the total of wins lost due to players who were below replacement value. It sort of all adds up to be a bit of a "bad luck" stat - similar to the Pythagorean record, I suppose.

Anyway, what it all boils down to is if players who are slated to be on a team's roster next season fall back in line with their career numbers, AND if that team sheds its negative-WAR players and gains at least replacement-level talent in its place, the number of wins the team will pick up would look something like this:

Arizona 10.58
Seattle 9.68
Cleveland 8.86
Washington 8.22
Milwaukee 8.14
Toronto 6.89
Pittsburgh 6.78
Colorado 6.00
Oakland 5.42
Atlanta 5.24

Using that logic, that would make Toronto, Colorado, and Atlanta awfully good teams in 2011, as they would be adding on to what were already above-.500 records. What do you guys think - is a six-win improvement about what we should expect? Chime in on the poll.

Eight offseason questions for baseball executives - ESPN
More good stuff from ESPN.com, as Jerry Crasnick surveyed a whole bunch of MLB front office personnel on the big questions heading into the annual offseason meetings. 12 out of the 17 GMs said they don't believe Royals will part with Zack Greinke this winter, just three GMs think Jorge De La Rosa is the best free agent pitcher behind Cliff Lee (while five think Jake Westbrook is the most viable option), and five GMs stated that they would be interested in taking a flier on Jeff Francis as a bounce-back candidate.

Twitter / NPB Tracker: Sanspo has Kuroda ready to ...
According to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker, the Dodgers and Hiroki Kuroda have agreed to a one-year, $12 million deal (as npbtracker later corrected themselves saying they messed up the exchange rate when originally stating the deal was for $8MM). That's a bit of a disappointment, for me anyway, as I believe Kuroda would have been a great fit for the middle-to-back-end of the Rockies' rotation.

More after the jump...

Offseason Notes: Charlie Blackmon > Brandon Belt | FanGraphs Baseball
Fangraphs' Carson Cistulli makes a bold claim - that Rockies' prospect Charlie Blackmon will outhit highly-touted Giants' prospect Brandon Belt - by using FG's new SCOUT metric, which you can read more about here. As Cistulli notes, Blackmon has struck out just three times in 71 plate appearances. That kind of contact rate would suit the Rockies very well, but he would need to post a BABIP higher than .255 to make it worthwhile. I'm not sure if Blackmon is experiencing bad luck, or if he's just not making solid contact a lot of the time. My best guess is that it's probably a mix of both. Either way, Blackmon will be very high on my list of Rockies' prospects to watch heading into 2011.

Coming Monday: November farm report | Inside the Colorado Rockies
The most enticing piece of news here is that shortstop Rosell Herrera will be playing in Casper next year. Maybe this was off-base, but my thought was that he was going to repeat in the Dominican Summer League. It will be interesting to see how the youngster performs in his first year in the United States.

Poll

How many more games will the Rockies win in 2011 than they won in 2010?

More than ten.

50 votes

6 to 10.

110 votes

1 to 5.

51 votes

-5 to 0.

14 votes

Fire Jim Tracy.

29 votes

254 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 66 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

How can Blackmon's BABIP be lower than his AVG?

His BABIP is .255 and his AVG is .275 according to Fangraphs. This hurts my math brain. Unless his 3 HRs increase his AVG by 20 points.

@charliedrysdale

by Charlie77 on Nov 13, 2010 9:17 AM MST reply actions

OK, so when I take away those 3 HRs it works out to a .241 AVG which is lower than the .255 BABIP, maybe he pops out foul a lot?

Speaking of the AFL, has anyone seen Jordan Pacheco’s slash line? Pretty amazing!
.373/.477/.549

@charliedrysdale

by Charlie77 on Nov 13, 2010 9:29 AM MST up reply actions

Yeah, that dude is terrific.

Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.
Bear Naked - My thoughts on sports, music, and life.

by Bryan Kilpatrick on Nov 13, 2010 9:38 AM MST up reply actions

We’ve mentioned Pacheco a lot the past few weeks between here and Twitter.

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by Andrew Martin on Nov 13, 2010 12:48 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

You nailed it.

Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.
Bear Naked - My thoughts on sports, music, and life.

by Bryan Kilpatrick on Nov 13, 2010 9:38 AM MST up reply actions

year in, year out pretty much

Pujols has a higher average than his BABIP. If you hit a lot of home runs and don’t strike out it happens.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Nov 13, 2010 5:46 PM MST up reply actions

Seth Smith

did the same thing the first half this year. Todd Helton did it a number of times early in his career, I think.

by webgem14 on Nov 15, 2010 3:39 AM MST up reply actions

Kuroda must be going back to Japan next year

I know he’s quite old, but I don’t see how more than a few teams weren’t prepared to offer more than one year for him

Campaigning for more day baseball games since 2006

by djmbluemoon on Nov 13, 2010 10:10 AM MST reply actions

Man I really would had loved to have Kuroda here....

its kind disappointing since it would only take a short term deal to get it done. I just hope the FO has a good plan in mind.

Ubaldo "Iron Arm" Jimenez
Seth Smith’s beard looks on in anticipation.
Zomtober!!!

by Colsportsfan on Nov 13, 2010 10:59 AM MST reply actions

1 YR, 12MIL

for Kuroda.

by roxintober on Nov 13, 2010 11:33 AM MST reply actions

Is too much, I meant to say.

by roxintober on Nov 13, 2010 11:33 AM MST up reply actions

Well, contrary to my last post, looks like it is about a done deal now

12:12pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that the two sides are close to finalizing that one-year, $12MM contract.

So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?

Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?

by Mondogarage on Nov 13, 2010 11:54 AM MST up reply actions

Seems like a good deal, really

If you’re only going to sign someone for one year, you’re going to pay a premium. Say that was $2m on this contract, $10m for one year of Kuroda isn’t a bad deal.

by deacs on Nov 13, 2010 1:19 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

Yeah, we weren't about to sign KDuroda for that much.

Dodgers legitimately win this round.

PROJECT LIBRA: Depth / Transactions
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Nov 13, 2010 12:03 PM MST up reply actions

Kuroda*

PROJECT LIBRA: Depth / Transactions
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Nov 13, 2010 12:03 PM MST up reply actions

Fish are ready to listen on Uggla...

They want relievers according to this:

Go Bruce!

by Since1993 on Nov 13, 2010 1:32 PM MST reply actions

We have a deep bullpen.

Offer Belisle and Weathers and see how much interest they have

by purplesocks on Nov 13, 2010 3:20 PM MST up reply actions

Too late.

They just traded Maybin to SD for Webb and Mujica.

I doubt they want 3 7th inning guys and a closer prospect.

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Nov 13, 2010 4:06 PM MST up reply actions

Webb is out of our division.

Hell yes.

Yeah, my username says it all.

by CentralCaliRox on Nov 13, 2010 5:44 PM MST up reply actions

Ryan Webb scares you that much?

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

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Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.

by Russ Oates on Nov 13, 2010 6:31 PM MST up reply actions

He has great stuff.

Yeah, my username says it all.

by CentralCaliRox on Nov 14, 2010 12:22 AM MST up reply actions

…in 2006

@charliedrysdale

by Charlie77 on Nov 14, 2010 5:50 PM MST up reply actions

Ryan Webb was with the Stockton Ports in 2006.

I wasn’t talking about BRANDON Webb.

Yeah, my username says it all.

by CentralCaliRox on Nov 14, 2010 6:31 PM MST up reply actions

It'll probably take prospects...

Bettis? Brothers?

Go Bruce!

by Since1993 on Nov 13, 2010 7:26 PM MST up reply actions

Uggla Ugh!

Uggla seems awfully expensive. Can he deliver?

by Real Perspective on Nov 13, 2010 6:32 PM MST up reply actions

Only 2B in mlb history to have 4 30+ HR seasons

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by Andrew Martin on Nov 13, 2010 8:25 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

Uggla would hit at Coors, no doubt!

by AvsNippon on Nov 13, 2010 8:26 PM MST up reply actions

Uggla

would look great playing 2b for LAD…..perfect fit for LA.
Uggla is a consistent 30-90 guy every year….playing 2b…..that has value.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 13, 2010 10:15 PM MST up reply actions

Hmm.

I’m pretty sure Uggla would look great playing 2B in ANY uniform.

Yeah, my username says it all.

by CentralCaliRox on Nov 14, 2010 12:23 AM MST up reply actions

Nishioka

Kuroda would have helped, but Nishioka at second base would be a coup, if the
Rockies could post him. Excellent ball player.

by AvsNippon on Nov 13, 2010 4:51 PM MST reply actions

no thanks

Would rather have nelson for 400k

by mkorpal on Nov 13, 2010 6:52 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

The Rockies motto, ‘400K! A system guy with GGGGREEEAT potential!’
I say, don’t waste the O’s, we need a better option at 2nd.

by AvsNippon on Nov 13, 2010 8:21 PM MST up reply actions

The Os?

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by Andrew Martin on Nov 13, 2010 8:26 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

Um..TulO, CargO, UbaldO…might just be my thing. :)

by AvsNippon on Nov 13, 2010 8:27 PM MST up reply actions

Ohhhhhh

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by Andrew Martin on Nov 14, 2010 12:34 AM MST via mobile up reply actions

I'm intrigued...

but I’ve also heard Theriot comparisons,

Go Bruce!

by Since1993 on Nov 13, 2010 7:25 PM MST up reply actions

Yeah, and Chone Figgins, too. There needs to be a better balance of bringing up farm system guys and spending some 3 million attendance cash on free agents.

by AvsNippon on Nov 13, 2010 8:26 PM MST up reply actions

who was god aweful.

I have no desire to get a guy who has only had one healthy and productive season in his career. Especially when it will cost millions just to talk to him. There are equal, or in the case of nelson, probably better options which will cost a fraction of the price.

by mkorpal on Nov 13, 2010 8:48 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

One productive season? Are you talking about Nelson’s minor league record?

by AvsNippon on Nov 13, 2010 8:56 PM MST up reply actions

ha, point taken

Still, we dont need another slap hitting powerless 2nd baseman

by mkorpal on Nov 13, 2010 9:05 PM MST via mobile up reply actions

Yeah, we need Uggla, actually.

by AvsNippon on Nov 13, 2010 9:16 PM MST up reply actions

I’m onboard this sentiment

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by Andrew Martin on Nov 14, 2010 2:12 AM MST via mobile up reply actions

Would you still consider him powerless if he hit thirty doubles and ten triples a year with no home runs?

I’m not saying he will because I don’t know. I’d find a guy that could get on base often and hit like that valuable.

"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana

by Oldfoagie on Nov 14, 2010 1:06 AM MST up reply actions

When I mentioned hin the other day....

The only thing I heard was he was a top of the order guy.I don’t know anything else about him except he’d be cheaper than Uggla and the implication he gets on base. Also the probability he has smallball skills too.

by Oldfoagie on Nov 14, 2010 12:40 AM MST up reply actions

Man, sure hope we re sign Francis. In some ways, more than DLR.

by AvsNippon on Nov 13, 2010 8:35 PM MST reply actions

He had a good FIP

But it wasn’t a huge sample size.

But JDLR is much more important. He has better stuff, a more recent successful season, and more upside. I think that, if Francis can get his strength back, and rebuild his stamina, he could be a good option. But, honestly, there are other teams who would pay more to guarantee him a rotation spot, which we can’t.

JDLR projects as a potential 4.0+ WAR player if he makes 32+ starts. Francis probably is 2-2.5 at best.

2011 Rotation WAR

Ubaldo: 5.5-7.0 WAR
(JDLR): 3.5-5.0
Chacin: 3.5-5.0
Hammel: 3.0-4.0
Cook: 2.5-3.5
(Francis): 2.0-2.5

I would guess that JDLR vs Francis would probably be about a 1-3 win difference

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Nov 13, 2010 9:22 PM MST up reply actions

Yeah, see your point on the stats. But, if Francis can up his fastball to a reasonable speed,
he’s a gutsy pitcher, and feel(hope) he can have a big comeback. DLR will have weight of expectation and a boatload of cash. Is there a chance the Rockies get Javier Vasquez?

by AvsNippon on Nov 13, 2010 9:45 PM MST up reply actions

Vazquez

I heard he lost velocity in 2010…..not a good combo for Coors, right?

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 13, 2010 10:16 PM MST up reply actions

and

Keith Law thinks he is hurt

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 13, 2010 10:17 PM MST up reply actions

If he was hurt, that’d explain the loss of velocity and the K decline. Might make
him ripe as a good value if it’s perceived he’s just lost his velocity and there’s a
recovery in sight.

by AvsNippon on Nov 13, 2010 10:49 PM MST up reply actions

Depends on whether or not he's stll hurt

A 3-4 mph loss of velocity often means shoulder injuries…labrum or rotator? Not sure I’d even attempt to go there.

So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?

Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?

by Mondogarage on Nov 13, 2010 10:52 PM MST up reply actions

You can always require passing the physical and a tryout.

by Oldfoagie on Nov 14, 2010 12:45 AM MST up reply actions

Some team might guarantee more money than Colorado is the problem.

Also the whole “vazquez hates the west” thing will present problems. If there’s any REAL truth to that, he’ll likely take a less favorable contract to play somewhere he wants than a somewhat more lucrative contract to play in Colorado.

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by Andrew Martin on Nov 14, 2010 2:26 AM MST via mobile up reply actions

vasquez loves the yankees, but look where it gets him.
fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice….

by AvsNippon on Nov 14, 2010 5:01 AM MST up reply actions

I think we really need to sign JDLR.

But I want Francis back. But we won’t have enough space in our rotation for it. Cook isn’t going anywhere. Hammel COULD, but highly unlikely.

Good luck figuring this out O’Dowd. Just bring back JDLR please.

Yeah, my username says it all.

by CentralCaliRox on Nov 14, 2010 1:29 AM MST up reply actions

another thing about Uggla is that we won't be able to afford him. He turned down 4yrs and 48 mil. We don't have that kind of money. Plus JDLR. We can only get 1 of them. Give and take.

by Roxman4ever on Nov 13, 2010 10:18 PM MST reply actions

Uggla is going into his last year of arbitration

so we wouldn’t have to sign him to a contract or anything. But It is true that we probably wouldn’t be able to afford his arbitration and sign JDLR – unless the people we trade to Florida frees up some salary room…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Nov 13, 2010 10:56 PM MST up reply actions

the one thing that I am so worried about that if teams want to trade. they would want Chacin. I DONT want that to happen. We need to keep him. He's special and I think other teams have noticed.

by Roxman4ever on Nov 13, 2010 11:20 PM MST up reply actions

We won't trade Chacin.

Relax.

Yeah, my username says it all.

by CentralCaliRox on Nov 14, 2010 12:26 AM MST up reply actions

I Don't see a trade happening unless Stewart or CDI are part of the package...

Maybe Nelson or EY2 too.

by Oldfoagie on Nov 14, 2010 12:29 AM MST reply actions

Trade EYJ if we have to.

I’d rather hang onto nelson for pure hope he meets some semblance of the first round talent that he was.

I’m “ok” with having a defense first catcher in the 8hole slot if we have to. I’d rather have the other 7 positions be offensively sound.

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by Andrew Martin on Nov 14, 2010 2:23 AM MST via mobile up reply actions

The Rockies can't be afraid to get into a bidding war...

they NEED to make a move for Uggla…or at the very least, try their damnedest.

Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.
Bear Naked - My thoughts on sports, music, and life.

by Bryan Kilpatrick on Nov 14, 2010 8:55 AM MST reply actions

pretty much agreed here

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by Andrew Martin on Nov 14, 2010 10:07 AM MST up reply actions

After all you can always get into a bidding war and retreat when it gets too fruity.

It's my blog!

by biondino on Nov 15, 2010 4:39 AM MST up reply actions

Agreed

but I just don’t see it

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 14, 2010 10:17 AM MST up reply actions

Trading for Dan Uggla seems fine...

…trading for one year of Dan Uggla doesn’t. The guy has already turned down a four year $48 million contract, and the Rockies shouldn’t be in the business of offering 30-year olds that kind of deal.

I think a high strikeout guy is also a poor fit for the club. We need a right-handed #2 or #6 hitter that isn’t an empty out — somebody who can be counted on to move runners over and get on base consistently. Power and batting runners in is a bonus. I’m so sick of the “Seth Smith” empty at bat.

And then, when you consider that his defense should eventually land him at 3rd base, I don’t see how this move makes sense as a solution at 2nd base for the Rockies in this three-year window.

by jmpmk2 on Nov 14, 2010 10:05 PM MST reply actions