Why JDLR isn't good enough for the rotation.

HIP HIP!!!!!
JORGE!!!!!!!!!!!

First of all, Fangraphs WAR shouldn’t be the only thing to look at when determining rotation candidates. You accounted for this. Also remember that DLR’s WAR is lower given injury time. For the sake of discussion, I’m gonna cite Statcorner WAR, which is a tRA based WAR (which directly accounts for batted ball data, rather than indirectly as per FIP).

The Rockies rotation ranks as follows:
Ubaldo: 6.4
Hammel: 3.5
Chacin: 2.3
DLR: 1.7
Francis: 1.7
Cook: 1.3
Smith: 0.9
Rogers: 0.8

So not too far off of Fangraphs, the conclusion remains somewhat the same. Remember that in his 2 years with the Rockies, he has in fact made at least 27 starts in both healthy years. In 2008, he made 4 AAA starts with the Omaha Royals (AAA) before coming to Colorado, where he made 23 starts and pitched 5 games in relief, and a lot of that was the Rockies still feeling out DLR. In 2009, we saw 32 starts. Based on his IP/start, DLR would’ve made 30 starts in 2010 with a full healthy season, accumulated 2.7 WAR. Not as good as his 2009 numbers (3.7 fWAR, 4.1 sWAR), but far from terrible.

Speaking to the injury, it’s a question mark in my mind. There’s no telling if it’s a lingering type of injury or what. After coming off of the DL, his first 2 starts were godawful, but after those two, DLR only turned in 2 starts where he pitched fewer than 6 innings and only 1 start where he allowed more than 3 runs. During those 14 starts, DLR posted a 3.56 ERA, striking out 81 to 36 BB, and allowed a .700 OPS. Arbitrary Endpoints, I know, but reevaluating after that injury is kind of important.

The problem with Aaron Cook being “the same” over the past 3 years is that the increase in his BB9 is making him far less effective. For a guy who doesn’t get outs via the strikeout and relies on defense on balls in play to get outs for him, he simply cannot afford more baserunners. A lot of 2010’s struggles for Cook were BABIP related, but the man just can’t stay healthy either. Cook has turned in over 160 innings just once since 2008. In fact, he’s only done it 3 times in his career (and one of those times was 166 innings). DLR is good for 23 starts a season as well, and of a higher quality than Cook, likely. Cook’s career ~4.8 tRA isn’t terribly exciting, and DLR’s low-4’s tRA suggests that those 180ish innings that DLR would turn in would be that much more valuable.

I don’t really trust Rogers’ career K9 compared to DLR’s. DLR has pitched like a completely different pitcher in the 400+ innings he’s pitched in Colorado, and I strongly doubt he’s just going to spontaneously revert to his Kansas City numbers. Rogers has never shown a strikeout rate as high as he showed in 2010, or even the conglomerate of 2009 and 2010 (7.1 career MiLB K9, 7.3 AAA).

Francis is an even further wild card. He’s never showed a BB9 as low as he did in 2010, and I really don’t think he’s going to repeat his 3.88 FIP (3.94 xFIP). Coming off of injury, especially having not pitched for all of 2009 and the first month and a half of 2010, it’s almost as if batters were having to rediscover Francis, which might have led to the low BB9.

Seeing how Chacin’s a lock for the rotation, as is Hammel, there’s not really much to say about them.

Basically, I would happily take DLR’s numbers over what I’d expect from Cook, Rogers, or Francis.

You have to watch out for sample size issues when trying to evaluate Francis/Rogers. I’d trust Francis’ career line and some sort of major-league equivalency of Rogers’ minor league numbers. Neither really put either pitcher over DLR.