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Around SBN: NFL Owners Vote to Change Trade Deadline

While I’m normally a fan of locking up guys long-term while they are young, Tulowitzki’s new contract doesn’t kick in until 2015, and runs through 2020. A lot can happen between now and then, and the Rockies own his rights in the meantime, so it’s quite a gamble for the Rockies. Over the term of his contract, I estimate Tulowitzki to be worth $190 million, which makes $119 million sound like a cyber-Monday discount. But, given that so much can happen between now and then, I think it’s a large risk for the Rockies to take. Maybe they think that they can directly buy insurance, or diversify away much of the risk in a way that makes it a good gamble. Frankly, I’d love to know the motivation behind this deal, because it is so unique. It seems so crazy, I feel like they must be on to something.

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/11/the-rockies-curious-moves-de-la-rosa-and-tulowitzki/

over 1 year ago Avatar2_tiny Andrew T. Fisher 6 comments 0 recs  | 

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I think what Jeff Passan and a lot of people miss, but Bradbury must get

is that the Rockies are one of the two or three franchises that have a pretty good idea what a 10 year contract to a franchise player means, because they’ve done it with Helton. So where as Passan sees a team that didn’t learn from a mistake, I’m seeing a team that probably ended up getting their money’s worth and then some the first time around, despite the handcuff it meant on the rest of the budget, and therefore are willing to do it again. This contract will likely pay for itself.

by Rox Girl on Nov 30, 2010 11:11 AM MST reply actions  

I wholeheartedly believe

that Tulo can provide 120 mill in value well before this thing is up.

As I read and think more about it, it does seem like a smart move(though one still filled with a bunch of risk). It would be better to lock him up now at current market rates rather than pay more later. Over at fangraphs they’re saying that we’re avoiding paying an extra 5 million a year by doing this extension now. That also doesn’t really account for any possible bidding wars we’d have to engage in, as well as Tulo potentially being the biggest bat on the market at the time – which would add to the cost.

I also like your points of the Rockies having a TV deal in place by then, and I’m also considering some added money/payroll from being relevant competitors regularly – something we’ve never experienced until the past 2 or 3 years…

Basically, I’d classify this extension as the smartest big-risk move around.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Nov 30, 2010 12:24 PM MST up reply actions  

Until

He breaks his arm in 3 places in a collision at home plate and never recovers.

Knocking on wood really hard

You know what? I can already tell that I don't like you. And I'm probably not gonna like you no matter how many pull-ups or push-ups you do. All right, anybody who wants to pick on anybody in class, aim for him, 'cause I'm not watchin'

by waterboy31321 on Nov 30, 2010 12:35 PM MST up reply actions  

That doesn't

change it’s status as a smart big-risk move.

Remember, it’s much more effective to judge process rather than results.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Nov 30, 2010 12:38 PM MST up reply actions  

Yea your right totally right

its definately a risk

(i didnt actually mean to reply to your comment)

You know what? I can already tell that I don't like you. And I'm probably not gonna like you no matter how many pull-ups or push-ups you do. All right, anybody who wants to pick on anybody in class, aim for him, 'cause I'm not watchin'

by waterboy31321 on Nov 30, 2010 4:25 PM MST up reply actions  

I also am starting to think

DOD may be one of the best GM’s around. And I think the fact that he was kept on board despite the years of struggle may have helped tremendously. There has to be a huge learning curve for a position such as general manager, and if you think about it, you’re only allowed to show what you’ve learned on a year by year basis. For instance if someone worked in marketing and worked on 4 three-month long projects in a year, those each represent 4 opportunities to display what you’ve learned and to make adjustments and improvements. For a GM, each project in a way, is a season – meaning it takes a long time to learn, and a longer time to adjust and improve.

Given the recent string of shrewd contracts, awesome trades, and high-quality (at least on the surface) drafts, we really seem to be evolving quite rapidly, and awesomely…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Nov 30, 2010 12:28 PM MST reply actions  

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