Monday Rockpile: Jose Lopez and the Mystery of the Missing BABIP
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 6:30 AM MST
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PrintLet's take a look back at the past 2 weeks of Jose Lopez, as viewed from my perspective.
14 days ago: "Rockies interested in Jose Lopez" Hey, I traded for Jose Lopez in my OOTP league. I also got Brandon League along with him. Then again, I also had to trade away Hammel and Deduno. But hey, Aaron Cook was good that year. So was DLR. Ubaldo was OK. Morales was decent. Pelfrey was pretty solid too. Verlander was kind of a disappointment. Street sucked. Good thing Mariano Rivera filled in well for him. Heh. Video games.
12 days ago: "Rockies still in on Jose Lopez" Oh jeez, this guy is awful. He can't field. He can't hit. He can't take a walk. SEATTLE is throwing him away. How about we DON'T trade for him, mmmk?
11 days ago: Bowling sure is fun! What is this? A Text Message?
Rockies just traded a AAA pitcher for Jose Lopez
(Seattle Buddy) Hey, what do you know about Chaz Roe, Colorado just traded him for Jose Lopez
FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF
10 days ago: Well great. Now we have 4 middle infielders fighting over one spot. Lopez is gonna be a really weird utility man. I guess it's pop off of the bench.
Don't fool yourselves. Lopez is the starting 2B in 2011.
....crap, he's right.
5 days ago: Look, there's no way Chris Iannetta's season was JUST him falling apart, there has to be more to it than just that. /downloads xBABIP spreadsheet, runs numbers, writes giant article
Hm. I wonder if there's anything worth looking at for Jose Lopez. Well, he batted .239/.272/.339 in 2010. .254 BABIP. Let's see what the xBABIP calculator says... ok, .306 xBABIP, based on LD%, etc. Hm. What if those were all missed singles, what happens then?
.285/.315/.385; .700 OPS. That's still not great, but it's better than .611 OPS.
What about 2009? He was pretty good in 2009. He batted .272/.309/.463. Weird, only a .268 BABIP. Let's see... xBABIP is .306...
.307/.342/.498; .840 OPS
What about his career line? .266/.297/.400; .697 OPS. That's with a .280 BABIP.
How about if we adjust it to a career .308 xBABIP?
.292/.322/.429; .751 OPS. And that's with half of his games in SafeCo. Factor in Coors' SLG boost and likely BABIP boost, we could be looking at a near .800 OPS hitter. It's nothing we haven't seen before (Barmes and Baker both posted ~.791 OPS in 2008, and several others before them), but the point is that there's a chance of getting reasonable production out of 2B in 2011. For anyone wondering, Lopez defensively profiles as a slightly below-average 2B with average range and somewhat rough hands (-0.6 UZR/150). Also amusing is that by age, Jose Lopez compares favorably to Bill Mazeroski (who incidentally never posted a 100+ OPS+ in his entire Hall of Fame career) and Brooks Robinson (also HoF) - two players known for their phenomenal gloves. Not really saying anything there, I just found it amusing.
1 day ago: I think that Jose Lopez might be one of the unluckiest batters in MLB. I really hope he can get luckier. Maybe it's not even luck, maybe it's just who he is. He's a dead pull hitter, and the average distance his home runs go is about 380 feet. Factor in some thin-air love and a LF wall at 347 feet, and maybe 2009 won't look like such a fluke after all.
I think I just used a series of spreadsheets to get myself excited about a baseball player.
I think I need to get out more.
For what it's worth, in my OOTP game, Jose Lopez batted .278/.306/.469 in his season with Colorado. Colorado went 101-61.
/writes giant article
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"I think I just used a series of spreadsheets to get myself excited about a baseball player."
God, that’s whay I hate you sabr types. Where’s the love of the game? The eye test? What we need is a real perspective.
The more you guys talk about BABIP the less I see reality in it.
I think I understand the concept; but it rings less and less relevent to me. I’m not saying this to pick a fight. I’m just not seeing it.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
It’s a very effective way of evaluating whether a player has been lucky or unlucky in terms of where his hits have dropped over a statisically meaningful sample. However, it’s not a “one number fits all” stat like OPS+ (which is based on pure league average) – the bare BABIP stat has to be evaluated alongside the parks involved, the player’s fundamental BABIP (a good line drive hitting player will have a higher BABIP than a poor pop-up prone hitter) and no doubt other small variables.
So if ANY player has a BABIP of .250 or less, then it’s likely he’s been unlucky; if he has a .350 of higher BABIP, then he’s been lucky. So you can extrapolate that in the future, his BABIP will regress towards the mean, which will likely correlate with a more or less respective hitting line.
The factor missing is the skill or lack of same in getting a hit at all in connection with your skill set vis the pitchers faced.
But then it bacomes subjective again.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
No stat is perfect
I don’t think anyone can deny there is a little skill in getting a hit on a weak groundball through a hole opened up on a hit and run. That’s partly why some players have higher BABIPs over their careers. It’s usually better to compare their season line to their career to predict big changes.
For instance, Dexter Fowler was hitting close to .100 left-handed early in 2010. People were coming out everywhere, saying the “switch hitting experiment should be over.” But he actually wasn’t hitting all that poorly. His BABIP was less than .200 despite a line drive rate that was close to his right-handed swing. He was getting unlucky. It balanced out eventually, and by year’s end, he hit .260 from both sides, with a higher OPS from the left side. That’s the application where BABIP is useful.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 9:12 AM MST up reply actions
If it works, don't knock it.
Chalk it up to magic or mysticism if you have to, but the objective part about this type of analysis is that every year, if you take hitters with a lower than .250 BABIP and follow them the next season (assuming they remain in the majors, a lot of these get weeded out) the considerable majority will show vast improvement in their hitting stats across the board. If you take the bundle of those at .350 or higher and follow them, the vast majority will be considerable letdowns in comparison to the previous season.
Phase 4: Laugh maniacally at the baseball impotence of others!!
BWAHAHA..BWAHHAAAHHHAAAA
@charliedrysdale
can I join in this laughter?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I'm not trying to argue it; I just see less and less reality to it.
It’s the honest to god truth.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
Well, I wasn't thrilled about the Lopez acquisition,
but I find few arguments more convincing than a well-crafted spreadsheet.
Where does Lopez project in the batting order, anyways? He doesn’t have nearly enough OBP to hit second, and his bat isn’t powerful enough to hit 5th. (Though given how many games Tracy batted Mora at cleanup, he might disagree). Todd probably won’t go lower than 6th in the order, and O’Dowd has basically said Iannetta’s hitting 8th this year until he forces Tracy’s hand.
So, that leaves us with something like:
Fowler
Smith/Spilborghs
Gonzalez
Tulowitzki
Helton
Lopez
Iannetta
Looking at that order, I might be tempted to bat Todd second most of the time if he shows any signs of revival. Hopefully Dex just seizes the leadoff spot this year so Tracy isn’t tempted to try EY2’s Outfield Adventures anymore.
Sorry for the overly long lineups post. I needed a break from studying for finals.
Not particularly thrilled either, but ...
What I thought the Rox go after this year is a consistent hitter who could be a true impact bat — perhaps a clutch hitter with on base consistency. But instead they seem to have acquired people like Lopez who may be able to complement some of the other players in the lineup. Instead of getting a guy who is established and consitent, in Lopez they ended up with someone who appears to be a work in progress. I believe it is a calculated gamble.
I’m not much of a numbers guy, and those of you who are can probably justify some of this stuff statistically, but I am guessing Lopez is supposed to be someone who can fill certain voids in the lineup. Maybe when playing alongside Tulo he will get better. Will be interesting to see how the season matures the situation, and whether Lopez morphs into a great player or not. Hope thier gamble plays out positively.
by Real Perspective on Dec 13, 2010 10:44 AM MST up reply actions
Issue is the availability of this "solves every problem the team has" player
a True Clutch Impact Consistent OBP Hitter is likely to be the prize of 30/30 teams in MLB.
We might as well add Consistent Inning Eating High Strikeout Low Walk Pitcher to the shopping cart.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 10:57 AM MST up reply actions
Not sure if you have the time to track it down (and its only a brief mention)
but I was just read something about Wigginton and it talked about how he may profile as the type of hitter that benefits from Coors. I know people discussed earlier this season that CarGo was the type of hitter who plays to Coors strengths so while Wigginton is not the most exciting option out there, he may be more helpful to us than for other teams. I think I found the link through beyond the boxscore…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I don't, but provided you're not just making this up
that’s pretty great.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 11:53 AM MST up reply actions
found it
nothing too awesome, but I liked it nonetheless
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
"Does Clutch Hitting Exist"
“An Exhaustive Analysis Focusing on Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez”
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 11:04 AM MST up reply actions
Sorry to bang on about me playing a baseball video game
But I am pretty sure that I am anti-clutch, so maybe there is something in it. Or is mental weakness an accepted fatc in a way mental fortitude isn’t?
Nice analysis - thanks
Thanks for the education. The article says that statiscally there is no such thing as a “clutch hitter”. And that most clutch hitting successes can be explained by either happenstance or other factors outside the hitter himself.
However, in observing life in general I have observed there are many people able to put it all together when the chips are down. Many of these people cannot duplicate their performance in other “clutch” situations. But they are nevertheless able to come through in many situations that defy logic (and statistics.)
I observed Yorvit Torrealba seemed to be able to come through from low in the order, when the guys at the other end had all fanned or grounded out. Maybe the pitcher was not focused on throwing to him after getting past the big hitters, but I suspect Torrealba knew that.
I watched Roger Maris bat in the early 60’s. The cameras were always on him. He would sit on the bench before his turn to bat, chewing his fingernails to shreds. You knew he was nervous. But he hit home runs anyway.
I suspect the figures will not bear me out. But it is my observation that some guys can clutch hit, some guys can clutch pitch. Other other guys choke. But sometimes the guys who usually choke, don’t. It’s hard to explain. But it is one of the things that makes baseball fascinating. It’s life.
by Real Perspective on Dec 13, 2010 11:18 AM MST up reply actions
Well, studies have been done regarding clutch batting (see: "The Book" by Tom Tango)
and they’ve effectively debunked the notion of clutch hitting.
The issue is that the major opponents to this study suffer from selective memory, as does most everyone. Typically you’ll see a rebuttal begin as such: “Well, I don’t know what your statistics say, but it seems like every time the guy comes up with runners on he’s driving them in”. Seems is a pretty telling word. Nobody remembers the time that Clutch Ribbieton grounded into a double play with runners at the corners and 1 out in the 7th inning of a tight game, but damn if they do remember the time he hit a bloop single that drove a runner in from 2nd.
A lot of it comes from preexisting bias as well. If you like one player over another, for whatever reason, you’re going to remember the successes of the liked player more vividly, and the failures of the disliked player more vividly. This can create the illusion of “clutch” and “not clutch” as well.
This is all just my 2 cents. Take it or leave it as you will.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 11:27 AM MST up reply actions
There are so few clutch situations that the sample size is a major issue
I mean, if Ribbieton is a career .300 hitter and hits a walkoff single, is this clutch? Or is it simply what he will inevitably tdo 30% of the time? If he strikes out and loses the game, is he a choker or is it unfair to criticise what we must expect him to do about 2/3 of all his at bats?
Now, if we manage to record 500 clutch situations over Ribbieton’s 20-year HoF career and we can demonstrate say a .050 increase in his average, then maybe, just maybe, he’s clutch. But I can’t think of any examples.
what were Yorvit's numbers for RISP
versus how he hit overall? Dude always seemed ‘clutch’…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Who's more clutch Yorvit or Tulo?
They have nearly the same amount of plate appearances (about 300) with 2 outs and RISP. They also have nearly the same AVG .235 with an OPS of mid .700’s. Chris Iannetta and Todd Helton however have an OPS just over 1.000 in the same situations. Yet Yorvit is more remembered for clutchiness than CDI.
@charliedrysdale
Take a look at leverage numbers
2 outs and RISP is a decent way to look at it, but there’s no distinguishing what the score of the game is. 2-out RBI only really “mean” something if it puts your team ahead (or builds a very narrow lead). If the Rockies are up 8-3 and Wigginton hits an RBI double, nobody’s gonna care.
High-leverage splits tell you more about how a player performed when the probability of changing the game’s outcome was on his plate.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 11:57 AM MST up reply actions
What are the high leverage splits?
On BR I see (example Torrealba career numbers in bold vs 2009, and I’m looking at BA and then tOPS+):
2 outs RISP: .235, 103 ,.409, 196
Late & Close: .226, 68, .444, 160
Tie Game: .234, 89, .333 106
Within 1 R: .254, 100, .326, 112
Within 2 R: 254 98, .304, 100
Within 3 R 255 99, .301, 103
I think this, while very unscientific, illustrates our selective memory. We remember 2009 and think of Yorvit as super clutch while that was a very small sample size and over his career hes demonstrated that hes not very clutch at all
by purplesocks on Dec 13, 2010 12:38 PM MST up reply actions
haha wow BR fail
So I went to check his 2010 numbers and scrolled a little farther down past the clutch stats and ran into the leverage stats. I’m guessing thats what you were talking about right Andrew?
by purplesocks on Dec 13, 2010 12:41 PM MST up reply actions
exactly
I think they added those in the past year.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 12:56 PM MST up reply actions
I was just playing around on BR looking at various players who have been described as clutch and noticed this
David Ortiz in High Leverage situations has a career tOPS+ of 107. That is over a sample of 1305 PA
Now please correct me if I’m wrong but that stat means that David Ortiz performs 7% better than usual in High Leverage situations. tOPS+ only makes a comparison to David Ortiz himself right, its not a league comparison stat?
Albert Pujols has a tOPS+ of 115 over 1292 PA.
So isn’t this showing that in high leverage situations, these two players actually perform better than they usually do and isn’t that what being clutch means?
My survey of players was very small and Jeter, Helton, Tulo, and Yorvit were the only other ones who I looked at and they all had sub 100 tOPS+
(If I was completely wrong about what tOPS+ really represents please disregard all of this comment)
or is it just opposing pitchers/managers being more afraid of good players in tight spots?
I think you actually are doing something here that I have against the clutch studies in general. I think OPS is a terrible way to look for it, as it’s too influenced by those random BABIP fluctuations Andrew’s talking about with Lopez.
I understand why they did it the way they did, because it’s part of this mythology of what clutch is that they were trying to debunk, but I think a serious inquiry would actually then move past that to where we would really expect to identify clutch players, i.e., looking into P/PA and contact rates.
you could look at ISO numbers as well
OBP-AVG, SLG-AVG. If they’re relatively in line with career ISOs, it could just be a BABIP issue.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 1:49 PM MST up reply actions
the sample PA is 1300
how much pull do those random BABIP fluctuations have?
given that they've been selectively culled good results
again, against pitching that might have more reason to be “anti-clutch” in those situations, possibly quite a bit.
I think this is a great point.
I’m sure there must be some .200 career hitters who hit .300 after the 7th inning with RISP but I’d be hard pressed to name one.
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
I would argue that Barry Bonds
was the most clutch hitter to ever play the game. The season he broke the single season home run record (yes I know lolroids -whatever he still had to hit the ball) he feasted off of pitchers mistakes – at a rate that was unworldly. That is clutch.
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Was Barry "clutch" or was he just good all (or a vast majority) of the time.
And is there a distinction between the two?
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
I guess the argument would be
that you could find a lot of players that would feast on mistakes at the same rate as Bonds but what would be fly balls for them became homers for Bonds?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Exactly this.
I'm GoRockies!! everybody :P
by CentralCaliRox on Dec 13, 2010 2:39 PM MST up reply actions
Lots of guys feast off of mistakes.
Most big league hitters do. Thats pretty much what a home run is.
But to have that high of a percentage of those mistake pitches go for homeruns is amazing. Just the slightest bit up or down on the angle of that bat makes it a pop up/fowl ball/ground out etc. He didn’t do that though – he was locked into each and everyone of those opportunities and took advantage at such a higher rate than anyone else ever has.
Hell – he had less pitches to hit than everyone else too – basically the entire league was afraid to pitch to him that season. So when he finally was given the chance to convert that mistake into a home run – he did.
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goddamn its really easy
to forget how silly that season of his was. How does something like that even happen?
I think he literally was just trying to crush every pitch that was somewhere within the strike zone. That may explain his 73 home runs, as well as his strikeout rate that was 4% above his career number…
Also, everyone was afraid to pitch to him that year, and yet it was only his 3rd highest walk total in a season. wth
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
And a HR rate that was nearly 50% above his previous single season high %
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
Yeah - he hit a homerun
17% of the time that year or something crazy like that. I think the average homerun rate for a good hitter is only like 5-6% of the time.
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The average homerun rate per plate appearance
for each position in the batting order is close to:
1.97%
2.00%
3.39%
4.11%
3.58%
2.98%
2.25%
1.65%
0.86%
And this is the average for a few teams with pop (Yankees, Rockies, Phillies and a couple more that I can’t think of right now) so it might actually be lower.
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
Exactly -
that one season Barry was clutch.
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David Ortiz is a good example
Remember how “clutch” he was in the playoffs the first few years?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 11:37 AM MST up reply actions
counterpoint:
the known problem with these studies is that they haven’t really debunked anything except on a macro level due to the limitations of sample size. What they’ve actually shown is that your pool of hitters who are good in clutch situations in one year will tend not to be as good in subsequent seasons. This is a far cry from actually proving that “clutch doesn’t exist” as some people take it.
That said, the proponents of clutch need to come up with a more convincing argument, which they haven’t done so far, usually because the guys they claim are “clutch,” really aren’t.
It operates on the premise that all skills are repeatable
Therefore, if clutch performance have proved not to be repeatable (and rather it seems to indicate nothing of future performance in clutch situations), it cannot be considered a skill
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 11:46 AM MST up reply actions
But how often do you have a chance to repeat something?
How many times in a season does a guy come up in the exact same spot, with the exact same score in the exact same inning?
Every clutch situation is a little different and therefore I’d expect each player to respond a little bit different.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 11:57 AM MST up reply actions
the problem is what's not repeatable by a broad population
doesn’t tell you everything you need to know about subsets of that population. It just tells you a general rule about Joe Average the ballplayer: he’s not clutch. That’s fine, but we do know from their studies that certain players may be “anti-clutch”. That is, they perform worse in clutch situations than normal. If the population at large isn’t showing this sub-set’s impact on the findings, then couldn’t that indicate that there’s another sub-set making up for it?
My own thoughts are that first, some clutch ability probably does exist, we just haven’t figured out how to identify it yet, and second, that since it’s so often used as a crutch for arguments by people with out any real clue what they’re talking about, the SABR crowd has this sort of predisposed bias against it that’s going to taint research attempts.
This is good and fair
I’ll entertain the idea that “cltuch skill” could exist, though I don’t see how anyone could call upon an ability in clutch situations that are any better than their ordinary skillset would indicate. Your last sentence probably rings true, but I do believe “clutchiness” is used as a crutch WAY too much. In times where it is cited, it is meaningless. In times when it’s not meaningless, it’s obvious (Mariano Rivera).
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 12:29 PM MST up reply actions
I agree, clutch gets used to artificially prop the value of good and bad players alike
and it’s almost always cringe-worthy when it’s brought into a discussion.
Like Barry Bonds cited earlier, I don't consider Mariano Rivera in the clutch category. Because he's good all the time.
I would offer up someone like Manny Mota who iirc was money whenever he was sent up in a pinch hitting situation. Now I understand that Manny had some nice years, but he was by no means a lights out hitter ala Bonds. But he did seem to have a propensity to come through with the base hit in those pinch hit situations. How that can be quantified, I’ll leave to the sabr crowd.
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
So someone being good all the time
can’t be a “clutch” performer?
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Yeah, they probably are a "clutch" performer but it is expected and therefore not considered as such.
On the other hand, the guy who for whatever reason performs over his normal line in high stress situations is what I consider “clutch”.
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
So you don't consider Mariano clutch
Even though he is hands down the go to guy in a high leverage closing situation?
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That is correct
The definition of clutch HAS to involve being better at some times (high leverage situations) than others. Mariano may only ever face high leverage situations, so you have to change the playing field for him, and suddenly bases loaded 1-out tied games become his high leverage.
Good specifically and absolutely does not equal clutch.
Thanks biondino. This is where I was heading. You just put it in words much better than I.
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
So, do you think all relief pitchers should
never be classified as clutch?
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How are you coming to that conclusion based on what I said?
My personal belief is that clutch is more or less a myth. However, if clutch does exist, then anyone can be clutch if they perform better in high leverage situations versus their own personal normal level of performance.
I doubt a mop-up guy in a game where his side is down 7 runs can ever be clutch because he never faces high leverage situations. But that’s the only example I can think of in terms of how it relates to relief pitchers.
I didn't come to that conclusion...
I asked you an open-ended question…..it was a legitimate question..
I didn’t intend to preface that question as a conclusion. What about my question made you think I drew a conclusion? (Seriously, because I want to make sure going forward I’m more careful in my open-ended questioning).
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I guess I interpreted the word "so" as meaning "based on the implications of what you just said"
Whereas I guess you just used it as a simple rhetorical device to start a sentence?
And also I thought I made it clear that relief pitchers can be clutch (or rather, qualify for an evaluation of clutchness in the same way as any player) though what makes “high leverage” to someone like Rivera may be different to what high leverage means to another player.
But in short I believe that vanishingly few, if any, players are capable of consistently playing above themselves as a result of being placed in a high leverage situation. So I am agreeing with The Book’s findings.
From Dictionary.com
“–adjective
16.
done or accomplished in a critical situation: a clutch shot that won the basketball game.
17.
dependable in crucial situations: a clutch player.y”
There are many other definitions such as verbs and nouns but the adjectives are what we’re discussing here.
Based on the two definitions above, I would have to say that Mariano and Barry B. would have to be considered “clutch”.
Also Seth Smith in a ph situation late in the game, Manny Mota in any ph situation. Franklin Morales would not be considered “clutch”.
I’m about to decide that “clutch” is in the eye of the beholder.
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
Mariano is a great closer
because he is clutch.
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Mariano is clutch
Because he is a great closer.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 6:26 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
perfect
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
But compare him in the post season
to any other closer/reliever in the market – he is way more clutch than any of those guys.
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No, he's *better* than all the other guys
His clutchness is purely how much better he is (if indeed he is better) in high leverage situations in relation to himself, wherever those high leverage situations arise.
So if he was perfect
in every high leverage situation he faced in the playoffs – would you consider that clutch?
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but there's no real way of determining if that was simply "clutchiness" or "luck" or "small sample size"
Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Loves (and misses) Galiardi.
SB Nation Denver
Well, as any poker player will tell you there's no such thing as luck
“Small sample size” = “luck” in this example. Luck is a way of viewing probability in the short term, so yes, obviously if the sample size is too small then the noise of “luck” may drown out any meaningful interpretation.
But if a player had thousands of high pressure at bats as well as thousands of low pressure at bats then maybe we could start studying clutch meaningfully.
Just to complicate matters here
I could see a situation – hypothetical in this example – in which the norm was for Joe Average Ballplayer to choke under pressure. So the small minority of players who didn’t choke could have a sort of clutch-by-default status even though they didn’t actually play any better than in a lower-leverage situation.
In reality I don’t think most players do choke under pressure, so this is a moot example.
So players who are
consistently great – do not have the ability to be clutchy?
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Assuming clutch exists for the sake of this argument
Any player who, in high leverage situations, consistently outperforms his normal line can be clutch, whether they are a .200 hitter or a .350 hitter. It’s the improvement relative to yourself that defines clutch.
So would you say that Barry Bonds
in 2001 was more clutch than he was in 2000?
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No idea, I don't know his stats and it's midnight.
Did he outperform his career line in 2001 in high leverage situations? If so then yes.
Considering for the year
he hit a homerun in 17% of his at bats.
Leauge average was less than 4%
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Maria, by all means disagree with me
But I am explaining my premise over and over again and you’re repeatedly ignoring what I am saying:
To be clutch you need to meaningfully and consistently outperform your OWN career line when hitting (or pitching, or fielding I guess) in a high leverage situation
What you’re saying here is that Bonds was a better player than everyone else. That’s not clutch, that’s being good at baseball.
I don't think she's ignoring you...
I think she is counterpun….er counterpointing.
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also, how good is our definition of clutch?
Driving in a runner from second with two outs isn’t that clutch if you’re team is ahead by 8 runs in the 7th inning…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
because the guys they claim are "clutch," really aren’t.
What does that mean? That the observer’s perception of clutch trumps numbers?
Trying to sell “clutch” as a skill is foolish.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 11:58 AM MST up reply actions
I believe there is such a thing as cluch players
because every player’s comfort level is going to respond differently in a clutch spot. Some guys will get really nervous when they are presented with a big moement in the game and feel uncomfortable in that enviorment. Others want to be the guy up with RISP in a close game and can just relax at the plate. Then there’s another group of players who want to be the guy up in a big spot but often try too hard to make something happen instead of just taking their normal approach at the plate. (I believe Tulo sometimes falls into the third category)
The real problem we have here is what defines a cluth situation. For me it’s not just RISP or close and late moments but rather situations that make you nervous. The score, situation, inning, time of year, position in the standings, opponent, ect…, all play into this and I really don’t think it can be accurately quantified.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 11:46 AM MST up reply actions
Basically I believe two things
1) A player who is more comfortable and less stressed is more likely to perform well in a situation than one who is uncomfortable and stressed assuming their talent levels are equal (or at least close).
2) People respond differently to clutch situations. Some can relax while others feel uncomfortable.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 11:54 AM MST up reply actions
This is a very true statement
And yet it doesn’t account for what can only be described as clutch pitching. You know, the kind where Halladay’s up 1-0 in the top of the 8th and a runner on 2nd with one out.
To me, to truly measure the “clutchiness” of hitters, if we’re going to assert that some folks just handle those situations better, it would be necessary to really consider which pitchers these hitters have actually faced in those situations.
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 11:56 AM MST up reply actions
I think this is a big part of it too
There’s too many variables at work to really measure it.
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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 11:58 AM MST up reply actions
tough issue
but I like this take. Stats show what they show, and its difficult to argue. And as I’ve learned in life, people react differently to stress and situations. I don’t think this issue will ever be put to bed.
never ever
I don’t for a second doubt that some players have the ice water running through their veins and stuff like that, but until a demonstrable trend is shown that some players are better or worse over a multi season sample in high-leverage situation, I’m going to continue to eschew it.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 12:02 PM MST up reply actions
But my problem is the "high leverage situation" defination
I think clutch is responding well to stressful spots in a game and I don’t believe that high leverage situations do a good job of measuring that. There are too many other variables at work.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 12:15 PM MST up reply actions
High Leverage = Change the Game, likely change hands of the lead
what else do you need?
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 12:19 PM MST up reply actions
I need the score, inning, atmosphere, momentum, situation, time of year, opposing pitcher, position in the standings, ect..... all taken into account because that affects how nervous you are in any given situation
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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 12:26 PM MST up reply actions
I don't think you're giving MLB players enough credit here
they’ve been facing that particular music for a LONG time now, I’d wager that the absolute majority of that stuff is out in the wash for them.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 12:31 PM MST up reply actions
Players have admitted that they felt uncomfortable in certain spots like the first few times they are in a pennant race
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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 12:34 PM MST up reply actions
that argues against "clutch" being a legitimate skill though
Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Loves (and misses) Galiardi.
SB Nation Denver
No one has argued that anti-clutch doesn't exist
Just that actual clutch does
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 12:48 PM MST up reply actions
But what if clutch is just not being anti-clutch?
That’s still quite valuable.
It’s also might be able to help your numbers in many clutch spots overall because some of the pitchers you are facing are anti-clutch. In other words, the competition is weaker because the anti-clutch pitchers are dragging down the normal level of play.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 1:08 PM MST up reply actions
So clutch
is being normal.
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Dec 13, 2010 1:17 PM MST up reply actions
In my humble opinion yes
To me clutch is about being able to relax in high stress spots and perform up to the same ability as you would in a normal situation. Since some of the pitchers you face will be unable to do that, you will be more successful in clutch spots overall.
With that said, I believe that not stessing out or trying too hard in these big moments is really difficult to do consistently.
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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 1:37 PM MST up reply actions
Clutch is being normal
That’s what I’ve been arguing this whole time.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 1:57 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
normal for an MLB player.
There’s definitely an argument to be made, and it has been, that almost by definition any MLB player would be clutch, just because of the weeding out process that occurs before they get to the majors requires coming through in enough tight spots to merit a look.
I should also add that once we are able to identify true clutch players (should they exist) I don’t know how good of a thing it’s going to be, as you’d be talking about players that apparently fail to live up to their true capabilities most of the time.
Wow..I just read through all of this thread...
and I must say that RMN is clutch on monday morning stories.
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seriously - good article
and great debate going on today. Love it. Love it. Love it.
And I’m a firm believer in “clutch”
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IAWTC
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You're all barking
Clutch HAS to mean “performs better than he usually does in a situation of high leverage”. Of course you want Tulo with the bases loaded rather than Barmes, because he’s a better hitter. He’ll score more runs more often because he’s a better hitter.
What would be clutch would be if Barmes came up in a high leverage situation and hit like Tulo (and anti-clutch would be the other way round).
Tulo pops up wayyyyyy too much to be "clutch"
Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Loves (and misses) Galiardi.
SB Nation Denver
Yes but I think people tend to underestimate
what being normal in a clutch situation means. Being normal in clutch spots makes you more valuable because A) you have an opportunity to perform better than you normally would when you face pitchers who are not good in the clutch and B) you are helping your team in big moments in the game.
Normal is not normal in clutch situations.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 2:59 PM MST up reply actions
I believe there is such a thing as cluch players
because every player’s comfort level is going to respond differently in a clutch spot
The idea is that those with “ice in their veins” play up to the best of their ability in “clutch” situations, meaning career numbers are the best predictors of their performance “in the clutch,” not actual clutch slash lines. Yorvit Torrealba doesn’t suddenly become Derek Jeter with men on base. He just seems to be one who isn’t phased by the pressure. Given a larger sample size, it would fall in with career lines.
Conversely, there are undoubtedly players who shrivel in clutch situations, changing their game to be more passive, more free-swinging, or just incapable of hitting the ball with pressure on the line. The Book claims there is no “clutch,” though there is “anti-clutch.” I’d much rather have A-Rod hitting with the World Series on the line than Torrealba.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 11:57 AM MST up reply actions
Of course,
a big part of whatever “clutch” is, of course, is really just how good you are.
Exactly, and that gets understated
How well Chris Nelson performs in the clutch is far less important than how skilled he is as a hitter overall.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 12:00 PM MST up reply actions
which pretty much means it doesn't exist
if it’s all in the eyes of the observer, it’s not a skill or something to be marketed.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 12:00 PM MST up reply actions
I think part of the problem here is that we are trying to measure "clutch" as a skill
I think it’s more a reflection of the player’s personality and how they respond to high stressed situations. I also believe that the way a player handles a clutch situation can change over times (especially if they have more experience in a “clutch” spot).
So clutch hitting to me is really more about how a player responds to stressful situations. Since everyone responds to stess differently, I think it’s still something useful to take into account. The problem is that it’s nearly impossible to measure it’s value since we don’t know just how stressed each player is in each situation.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 12:12 PM MST up reply actions
how a player responds and actual results are different things
If every player could just respond well and get positive results, we’d have more players hitting .600.
If a player has the “right” approach going into a “clutch” situation, then he…will bat his career line. If they have the “wrong” approach, they’ll bat worse than they’re career line.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 12:14 PM MST up reply actions
Ah, but the pitcher is another human being in that spot who
also has a chance to become overly stressed.
If we for the sake of arguement say that 50% of pitchers will respond poorly to stress, then a hitter who responds just as well as he would in a normal situation to stress should see his numbers go up in clutch spots because half the people he is facing are uncomfortable.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 12:20 PM MST up reply actions
which means he's batting against a bad pitcher
and has nothing to do with his own skill.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 12:23 PM MST up reply actions
That is to say
if a pitcher gets himself into a clutch situation, it’s likely he isn’t pitching well.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 12:24 PM MST up reply actions
Sometimes this is true but quite often it's not
The game migh be a 1-0 pitcher’s duel where both pitchers are pitching well, a reliever with great stufff might have just been brought in to clean up somebody else’s mess, a pitcher can be pitching well and have a bloop hit fall in combined with an error to create a 1st and 2nd nobody out situation.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 12:30 PM MST up reply actions
I said likely
I’m aware that every situation isn’t the same.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 12:32 PM MST up reply actions
That a little oversimplified
cf. the scenario I posted earlier, where Halladay’s protecting a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the 8th, with 1 out and a runner on 2nd, and the other team’s best hitter at the plate
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 12:31 PM MST up reply actions
and again, I said likely
there are cases where it isn’t the fact.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 12:32 PM MST up reply actions
I just think that's part of the inherent difficulty in measuring "clutchiness"
But I think we sorta agree on that. I need lunch.
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 12:33 PM MST up reply actions
I think this is getting unnecessarily cloudy
Yes, players react differently to clutch situations. Think of clutch situations as a hindrance to desired results Those who react poorly to clutch situations get affected most, and their performance is far worse than skill. Those who react most favorably have zero affect from the stress, thereby allowing them to perform as well as they can in normal situations. However, one can not handle clutch situations so well that they are actually a better hitter in clutch situations than not.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 12:17 PM MST up reply actions
I tend to agree
I think what you are saying is that clutch is not a skill like hand/eye coordination, but rather part of that illusory scouting term “makeup” and, just like other attributes of makeup (maturity, focus, dedication, etc) its not necessarily static. Experience, previous success, specific situations, they all come together. So it seems impossible that it could actually ever be measured. And there are many out there who say “no ability to measure = doesn’t exist” and others who disagree, but the argument isn’t easy to articulate in a persuasive manner.
Is this what we are saying?
Sounds like we’re saying the guy who usually hits better on average will normally perform better at a “high stress” period of the game. In other words Helton or Tulo would be better clutch hitters than the other guys. For one, they have been in the situation more often due to their position in the order and they have more success at hitting in general, so would enjoy a bit more self confidence. And third, they statiscally are better hitters anyway.
In other words, there is no such thing as a “clutch” hitter. He is either a good hitter or he is not.
by Real Perspective on Dec 13, 2010 12:16 PM MST up reply actions
When is hit f/x going to be available?
I like the idea of xBABIP, but it leans too heavily on semi-arbitrary line drive rates for my taste. If we ever get hit f/x, we’ll know a lot more about individual hitters.
Not in
our lifetimes—and that may only be a slight exaggeration.
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Weird.
I remember reading articles just a couple of years ago about how the data were going to be available soon. I’m less interested in the fielding side; it would be nice to know, but I think the initial velocity off the bat would be the biggest contribution to sabermetrics in my opinion.
You're thinking
about some articles saying that all the stadiums were going to have the special equipment needed to track all this stuff.
They were needlessly optimistic. In August, FanGraphs had a blog conference in NYC that I went to. David Appelman told us that the equipment has yet to be perfected and that is is very expensive.
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Well, maybe I misunderstood,
but I had thought they could use the same equipment now used for pitch f/x to capture initial velocity (speed and direction) as the ball left the bat. I know that pitch f/x doesn’t record the flight of the ball all the way to the plate, so maybe that’s where the problem is. Still, it doesn’t seem like there would need to be an entirely different system.
I just saw that there's an article on Fangraphs talking about field f/x.
Sounds like it’s getting pretty close. I think that will change the way we talk about fielding for sure, but I also think we need the hit f/x data to go with it. The speed of the ball off the bat will also affect reaction times and defenders.
101-61 sounds good to me
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 7:13 AM MST reply actions
Don't worry, the team's working on it as we speak.
Scientists in the lab are creating special non-humidor baseballs that have the same look and feel of the humidored variety. Lincecum won’t be able to thwart our nefarious plots this year.
“F(reaking) ball situation in which I can not tell if it is juiced or not bull(crap)”
two Icehouse 24 oz beers = $3.20 two "fancy" Bud Light 24 oz beers = $5.00
NOW who comes out on top?
by frightened inmate #2 on Dec 13, 2010 9:13 AM MST up reply actions
I think cargo would have hit about .275 with league average BABIP
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 7:20 AM MST via mobile reply actions
As many line drives as Cargo hits
I wouldn’t ever expect him to have a league average BABIP.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 7:31 AM MST up reply actions
no argument here
Though adjusting to his xbabip puts him at about .300. Park adjust and he’s under. My word!
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 7:50 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
I think Cargo's a tough guy to use xBABIP numbers on though becasue he's still so young as a hitter and making adjustments
He’s had what, just over 1,000 plate appearances? That’s not a huge sample size and even within that he’s still growing as a hitter. If there’s such things as an xBABIP eye test, I would expect Cargo’s BABIP to be as high as anyone’s in baseball because he hits as many line drives as anyone I’ve ever seen.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 8:00 AM MST up reply actions
absolutely
I’m mostly playing. And very indirectly saying we still don’t know what kind of hitter cargo will be long term.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 8:17 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
I agree with this
If he turns out to be anywhere near the hitter he was last season I’ll be thrilled.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 8:30 AM MST up reply actions
no, it's perfectly valid to do an xBABIP analysis.
I’m not trying to determine cargo’s skill level, merely evaluate the timeframe in question.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 10:01 AM MST up reply actions
I've posted these numbers before but I think they are relevant to today's Rockpile so I'll post them again
It’s worth noting that Jose Lopez doesn’t strike out much and also doesn’t walk much. This could be advantageous in Colorado because this means he puts lots of balls in play; and Coors Field rewards hitters who do that.
Lopez has a career BABIP of .280, has never had a BABIP higher than .309, and last year had an awful BABIP of .254; but take a look at the Mariners BABIP numbers when playing at home during the last five seasons.
2010: .289
2009: .292
2008: .301
2007: .310
2006: .295
Average BABIP = .297
So as a team, the Mariners BABIP numbers at home during the last five years aren’t much different from Lopez’s. In fact it’s only 17 points highers than Lopez’s career BABIP.
Now compare those home BABIP numbers to the Rockies home BABIP numbers.
2010: .341
2009: .323
2008: .318
2007: .333
2006: .331
Average BABIP = .329
So the Rockies as a team at home have averaged 32 more BABIP points than the Mariners over the last five seasons. This is not a coincidence. Coors Field drives up your BABIP numbers and that’s exactly what Lopez needs for his overall numbers to improve.
RMN might be able to help me here as far as what Lopez’s 2011 line would look like if we raised his BABIP by 32 points in half of his games (or just raised it 16 points overall) but I’d imagine that whatever that comes out to be might be a reasonable expectation for his production in a Rockies uniform.
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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 7:30 AM MST reply actions
Given that
he doesn’t hit many home runs nor strike out much, his Babip increases should translate into batting average increases more directly than most people on our team. For a quick and dirty way, I just multiplied 16 (the points from home games) by .9 (the rough percentage of at bats not ending in strikeout) and got like 14 so maybe add 14 points of average to his batting average?
However, it will be interesting to see how Jose Lopez, like everyone else copes with the home/away differences…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
What really plays nicely for the Rockies is that Lopez has always been a better hitter on the road
His career road OPS is .725 compared to his overall career .697 OPS. Now I obviously don’t expect him to continue to hit better on the road but it does seem like Safco Field was a terrible fit for him. I’d love to see Lopez have a .725 OPS on the road in 2011 because that means we’ll probably have a .750-.760 OPS guy overall and that would be a huge improvement from our 2B production last year.
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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 8:53 AM MST up reply actions
What doesn't work?
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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 2:49 PM MST up reply actions
You can’t take the Mariners’ collective BABIP and the Rockies’ collective BABIP and just attribute the difference to being a park effect, it just doesn’t work that way. That’s making the assumption that EVERY player on the Rockies is EXACTLY the same as EVERY player on the Mariners.
It’s the equivalent of saying “The average player on the Rockies hit X home runs. The average player on the Mariners hit Y home runs. We’ll just take the difference between X and Y and add that to Lopez’ HR total and expect that”
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 5:35 PM MST up reply actions
If you use enough data I think it does work that way.
That’s why I used five years worth of information. Just for fun, let’s compare the five years of home BABIP for the Rockies and Mariners from 2001-2005.
2001: .358
2002: .342
2003: .320
2004: .337
2005: .337
Average BABIP = .339
2001: .313
2002: .299
2003: .296
2004: .293
2005: .299
Average BABIP = .300
Here we see a 39 point difference in BABIP in favor of the Rockies and I believe that it has everything to do with the acreage of Coors Field driving up hitters BABIP across the board. I don’t care who was on each of these teams over the last decade, there’s no way that this type of consistent disparity is from anything other than the parks these teams play in.
In fact, park factors may be the most underrated and understudied part of BABIP.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 10:46 PM MST up reply actions
I understand that Coors Field sports a higher BABIP, that's common knowledge
Park Factors are published and if you look at the high “1B 2B 3B” and low “K” it’s clear that more balls are put into play at Coors, and the “1B/2B/3B” ratings are all higher. Even if you can’t take those numbers as direct gospel truth, the fact is that they are well above average, leading to higher BABIP.
My point wasn’t that Coors BABIP = SafeCo BABIP, it’s that you can’t just take the team BABIP and add it to Jose Lopez’ BABIP. It doesn’t work that way.
In fact, park factors may be the most underrated and understudied part of BABIP.
What research have you done on BABIP? How do you know that it’s underrated and understudied? To assume that people are just ignoring batted ball data when making park factors is just ludicrous. The people who do projections and adjustments are FAR more studied and practiced at this than you or I. You might consider doing some reading before making claims like that.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 14, 2010 10:04 AM MST up reply actions
My point wasn’t that Coors BABIP = SafeCo BABIP, it’s that you can’t just take the team BABIP and add it to Jose Lopez’ BABIP. It doesn’t work that way.
Again, this is why I used many, many years worth of data. When Rockie and Mariner teams composed of all kinds of different players keep consistently posting a difference in BABIP around 30 some points a season, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say if we change the one variable that’s causing the difference in these BABIP numbers that Lopez’s BABIP numbers will improve. Maybe we won’t get an exact number but you will get a really good estimate which is really all you’re looking for here.
Secondly, I think you misunderstood my point about park factors being underrated when it comes to BABIP. Most people when citing BABIP use it to show how lucky or unlucky a batter has been; however different parks produce such a wide range of BABIP numbers that certain players may not be as lucky or unlucky as we think. When I say underrated, I mean in the perception of each player’s luck when it comes to BABIP, not that researchers don’t use BABIP when calculating park factors.
Just for fun, I’d love to see a list of the average BABIP numbers in each park over the last 10 seasons just to see how wide ranging they are. I’m guessing that there would be several neat surprises there.
108 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 14, 2010 10:53 AM MST up reply actions
whats his xBabip for last season (or career)
if we just enter Rockies as his team rather than Mariners?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I'm thinking we should take up a collection to help AMart get out more
wonderful analysis
/worries about his friend’s emotional state
/writes giant article on the effects of lack of REM combined with Lopezoverload
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
I offered Tacos not long ago...
Now i,m too broke to pay attention again.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
I'll talk with Muzia, see when we're available
If you can break free, we can handle tacos.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 10:04 AM MST up reply actions
And if yer looking at tacos y salsas, don't you dare not ask me
well, you can dare….
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 10:24 AM MST up reply actions
An interesting interview with the Braves' Director Baseball Admin at Fangraphs
Interesting to see that in a toss-up between sabremetrics and scouting, scotuing gets the casting vote – regarding defence at least.
John Coppolella: I still think the best way to evaluate defense is through the eyes of a scout. I say that because a scout can see where the defender starts, where he finishes, what kind of break he gets, and what sort of closing speed he has. When we look at the stats, like UZR/150 or other zone ratings, or Bill James’ +/-, there’s about seven or eight different stats that all offer something. It’s about trying to find some kind of blend, some merge that you can feel good about. If you can match that up with what your scouts think, and all of that kind of gels, then you’re onto something. If it’s all jumbled up, then, probably, at least for the Braves, we are going to go with our scouts.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/interview-john-coppolella-of-the-braves/
thats the way it should be done IMO
they come up with all these things for defense, but the eye test is really what matters on D
by black_knight101 on Dec 13, 2010 8:29 AM MST up reply actions
what we really should do (aside from giving scouts more credit)
is convert every defensive statistic to z scores, and then average those z-scores. Since defensive metrics are raw and require large sample sizes, this may be a way to kind of artificially boost our sample size – provided that the defensive metrics are theoretically/technically similar enough to warrant the averaging…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Have a busy day today.
Doctors, Doctors and clinicians, followed by b-crats. Lord save me.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
Jose Lopez and the Mystery of the Missing BABIP
Sounds like a Hardy Boys novel
Since the Dawn of Time, only two bearded men are worthy of being synonymous with the Rocky Mountains: Jeremiah Johnson and Todd Helton
Except everyone knows Encyclopedia Brown is the real sabermetrician amongst that bunch!
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
That crossed my mind as well
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 10:35 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
lost scoobie doo episode?
The Big Purple Machine will make a believer outta you!
by El Paso Jeff on Dec 13, 2010 10:23 AM MST up reply actions
Brian Cashman would have totally gotten away with it, if not for those meddling Devil Rays
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 10:25 AM MST up reply actions
How many people here have OOTP or some other kind of sim-league program?
It might be fun to put together a friendly PR league in January.
@charliedrysdale
I have no time to run a league, that's for sure
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 10:07 AM MST up reply actions
I was thinking just posting our results..
but I don’t own OOTP so I’m not sure how much time it takes.
@charliedrysdale
I own Baseball Mogul, it's similar to OOTP
I’m down with that
Is it 2011 yet?
by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 13, 2010 10:28 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
I know it's not comparable
But MLB 2K120 drives me mad that I can’t look at my, say, BABIP or CS or SLG when I want to see how my player’s doing.
On the other hand I had my first 6 for 6, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB game the other day so who needs fancy stats.
It can't be stated just how bad I am at sports games where you actually play the game
and not just manage.
by Andrew Martin on Dec 13, 2010 10:58 AM MST up reply actions
Great! Finally someone I can almost match up well with
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 10:59 AM MST up reply actions
Then MLB 2K10 might be the one for you
The way your player points accumulate, even if you’re mediocre (like me) you can become the best hitter in the game in under 3 seasons). .398/75/210 isn’t a line to be sniffed at, and that was my sophomore year!
Mark Reynolds is gonna be pissed
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 11:24 AM MST up reply actions
So clearly, MLB 2K10 hasn't initiated the drug testing protocol
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 11:13 AM MST up reply actions
I think that's his HRs/RBIs
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
Counting stats?
How old skool!!
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
Bazinga!!
SD Cat 09 is still awesome
by Junction Rox on Dec 13, 2010 2:34 PM MST up reply actions
Hey, playing catch...so we didn't sign CarGo yet, I take it?
Optimism Warrior
2011 Colorado Zombies--Will rise from beneath homeplate with the shards of a broken season in Tulo's hand!
Brad Hawpe - Thanks Brad, you were a class act.
QPU #4, YHEG #4, Proud Member PR Gynocracy
make that catch-up ...ha
Optimism Warrior
2011 Colorado Zombies--Will rise from beneath homeplate with the shards of a broken season in Tulo's hand!
Brad Hawpe - Thanks Brad, you were a class act.
QPU #4, YHEG #4, Proud Member PR Gynocracy
catsup?
Hebrew National Hot Dogs - The Official Hot Dog of the Colorado Rockies.
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
Video tips on posting links and images to Purple Row - Click Here -
Hey guys!
So yeah, my question got in this past fan mail with Tulo, as you guys saw.
And …Saturday I awoke to find I made the print edition! So I framed it!
Okay, okay. Maybe I went a little overboard. But as you can imagine, I was pretty excited. I couldn’t believe that they actually believed my name was Pip. I especially coudn’t believe Troy Tulowitzki himself- my favorite player- called me by name (!). "Pip, that definitely went into some of my reason on why I did it. I thought it would help influence them into staying. That being said, I am guy that wants you to be there."
Wow. I am treasuring this forever, haha.
I believe in the future, the reality of the present, the sweet memories of the past, living is more than breathing, spring will came if we wait, patiently, believing, hoping. But the winter is long and we must endure its cold. I believe in the future, the reality of what is to come, the sweet memories that are yet to occur, probably, eventually, someday.
And I believe in hope and anticipation: the idea that we’ll meet again, and counting down the days until we do.
by prettyinpurple on Dec 13, 2010 4:23 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Tulo pops up wayyyyyy too much to be considered clutch
Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Loves (and misses) Galiardi.
SB Nation Denver
by Muzia on Dec 13, 2010 4:26 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
He is clutch when it comes
to popping up.
And growing mullets.
And Jump Throws.
And annoying you.
Hebrew National Hot Dogs - The Official Hot Dog of the Colorado Rockies.
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
Video tips on posting links and images to Purple Row - Click Here -
whatever
He is SO not a jerk, btw.
I believe in the future, the reality of the present, the sweet memories of the past, living is more than breathing, spring will came if we wait, patiently, believing, hoping. But the winter is long and we must endure its cold. I believe in the future, the reality of what is to come, the sweet memories that are yet to occur, probably, eventually, someday.
And I believe in hope and anticipation: the idea that we’ll meet again, and counting down the days until we do.
by prettyinpurple on Dec 13, 2010 6:31 PM MST up reply actions
Congrats PIP
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 10:48 PM MST up reply actions
Thanks!
I believe in the future, the reality of the present, the sweet memories of the past, living is more than breathing, spring will came if we wait, patiently, believing, hoping. But the winter is long and we must endure its cold. I believe in the future, the reality of what is to come, the sweet memories that are yet to occur, probably, eventually, someday.
And I believe in hope and anticipation: the idea that we’ll meet again, and counting down the days until we do.
by prettyinpurple on Dec 13, 2010 6:31 PM MST up reply actions
LOL if the Phillies sign Cliff Lee.
I'm GoRockies!! everybody :P
by CentralCaliRox on Dec 13, 2010 6:33 PM MST via mobile reply actions
that makes so little sense to me.
The Phillies are already at a point of diminishing returns on their dollars spent, not only in potential win value, but also in potential revenue. It’s a crippling all-in sort of deal that has to result in another WS to get a pay-off, as far as I can tell.
Unless they get some huge discount
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 9:00 PM MST up reply actions
The Phillies would just be such a fun team to watch if they signed him
Their offense is still going to suck without Werth though. Ibanez, Polanco, and Rollins have all seriously declined, and I’m not so inclined to believe Dominic Brown is going to light anything up this year. They’re also one infield injury away from starting replacement level pieces like Valdez, and Schnieder and Francisco are their only useful bench pieces. They would be really good, but have absolutely no depth at all.
The 2010 Colorado Rockies: We may have lost the battle, but not the war. It ain't over till it's over.
That's because we've horded it all!
Ruben can’t have our Lopez or Wiggy
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 9:01 PM MST up reply actions
For what it's worth, from Jon Heyman:
yankees have been told they’re out of cliff lee sweepstakes
yankees final offer for lee was $150 million for 7 years
Lee took less years AND less $ per year to go with Philly
Reading 5 years, $100m
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 10:10 PM MST up reply actions
Phillies win this deal
hands down. Years might be a little long but still excellent.
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
Sure, they win the deal, but, they're paying over $60m a year to three players now
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 10:12 PM MST up reply actions
Oh, and it gets worse
Halladay
Lee
Howard
Oswalt
Utley
Combine in 2011 for $91m
Add in Ibanez and Lidge at $12m per. LOL.
Guess they may need Lee and Oswalt to play LF after all, since they won’t be able to afford one.
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 10:16 PM MST up reply actions
It's like Yankees south
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 10:51 PM MST up reply actions
cant believe the Phillies getting Lee
unreal
LETS GO RED WINGS!
2011 will be the year....better be....
Troy Tulowitzki: "When people think of the Rockies, I want them to think of a winning organization."
If they don't win the NL pennant now it will be such a fail
I look forward to seeing this
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 10:52 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I look forward
to a team in “girly” colors making this happen
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
unreal
the hate just keeps rising…how do the Phillies have this money…they are going to pay for this soon…
LETS GO RED WINGS!
2011 will be the year....better be....
Troy Tulowitzki: "When people think of the Rockies, I want them to think of a winning organization."
by TuLoRocks2008 on Dec 13, 2010 10:11 PM MST up reply actions
Of course, I love that Phils have THREE $20m salaries now for next few years
Can you say no more money?
Wow, when this team gets old, they’re going to suck hard.
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
Howard, Lee and who's the third
not that am doubting you I just can’t remember. Halladay?
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
Yeah, Halladay
Now, we don’t know how Lee’s breaks down yet, so I’m basing it on $20m per, when it’s probably not a flat rate.
Still, even before signing Lee, Phillies were committed to $146m in 2011
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 10:17 PM MST up reply actions
getting close to that
luxury tax
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
I think they may have gone over it
Not sure though
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 10:53 PM MST up reply actions
Phillies championship window status:
Still closed as of the end of the 2010 season.
They won’t stay healthy all year.
Is it 2011 yet?
by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 13, 2010 10:28 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Those four arms might be all they need
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 10:30 PM MST up reply actions
Those four arms are what I meant.
Is it 2011 yet?
by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 13, 2010 10:33 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Why are you so sure?
They’ve never really had a history of injury issues
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 10:38 PM MST up reply actions
I'm just glad they are not in our division
They can be beaton in a short series and that’s all we need to do.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 10:54 PM MST up reply actions
haha a funny tweet
So the Phillies are going to turn around and trade Roy Halladay for Gorkys Hernandez and Brad Lincoln, right?
The Phils now have EIGHT players making $10m+ next season
And Hamels’ only $500k away.
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
Can I get a woot woot now?
Knew there was no way he’d sign with the Yanks for any price. Chivalry to one’s wife has no price. You either have it, or you don’t.
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
No, you cannot get a woot woot
The rest of the NL is screwed next year
The Colorado Rockies aren't a team, they're an armada.
Oh c'mon, the Phils haven't had our number previously
Don’t panic.
And we’ve done okay against Halladay, and against lefties. Work’s cut out for us, but we’re hardly screwed. And Phils’ payroll is so high, with little room for revenue improvement, that they’re stuck if they get any real injuries next year.
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 10:27 PM MST up reply actions
The Phillies haven't had our number?
I’m pretty sure they’ve won like 17 of the last 20 against us, going back to the beginning of 2008 and including the NLDS.
Wait, what's his real name? We should make a joke out of that.
by BrandonHawpe on Dec 13, 2010 10:35 PM MST up reply actions
Well there you go.
It’s not like they could dominate us any more than before Lee came in the second time
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 10:38 PM MST up reply actions
I'm just saying, they don't have it all over us in a playoff series
In playoff games from 2007 forward, we’re 4-3 versus the Phils.
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 10:41 PM MST up reply actions
We lost the 2009 NLDS as much as they won it
Two blown saves at home, and Tulo striking out with the tying or winning runs on base in both games.
But yeah, in the regular season, you’re right.
But not in 2011!
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
by Mondogarage on Dec 13, 2010 10:40 PM MST up reply actions
obviously Tulo's not clutch enough...
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
They have some high priced contracts but next year Rollins and Ibanez come off the payroll
and they hold team options on Lidge and Oswalt for 2012. So if they decline those thats about 43 mil that could potentially come off the payroll. Plus they are rumored that they will now start shopping blanton which is 8 mil in relief.
im really scared of the philies next year especially in a short playoff series but injuries definitely could happen. at least we arent in the NL east
by purplesocks on Dec 13, 2010 10:46 PM MST up reply actions
Over 162 yes
In a playoff series, anything can happen. All we have to do is get in and beat them in a short series.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 10:56 PM MST up reply actions
i have to give props to Lee for not just chasing the money
Aparently the Rangers were offering 161 mil and the Yankees 150 mil. You don’t see that very often.
by purplesocks on Dec 13, 2010 10:49 PM MST up reply actions
I am sooooooo happy that Cliff Lee took less money to go to Philly
What a nice big EEFFFFF UUUUUUUU to the Yankees that was!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And the best part of the whole thing is who’s left for the Yankees to sign. They can’t have JDLR. He’s ours!!!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!
Looks like the best starter left on the market is………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. wait for it………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. …Carl Pavano!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
/Cackles with glee
This is a wonderful night.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 11:09 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Cliff Lee going to the yankees or rangers was beneficial for the rockies
Him going to the Philies makes the NL that much tougher. Fortuneately we aren’t in the East but still
by purplesocks on Dec 13, 2010 11:12 PM MST up reply actions
Look at it this way...we won't have to face him in the World Series.
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
by pedalpusher on Dec 13, 2010 11:38 PM MST up reply actions
In what twisted way do you see this is wonderful???
From a Rockies perspective, this is a disaster. It looked like one of the best pitchers in the game was going to one of two AL teams, but he ends up on one of the top contenders in the NL. I’m sorry, but a Rockies fan saying this is great is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever heard.
The Colorado Rockies aren't a team, they're an armada.
As a Rockies fan this is terribad
but as a baseball fan, I really like this move as it shows that players don’t have to get “top” money to play if they hare comfortable in a different place. And it kind of does shaft the Yankees, which is always good.
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
Exactly
I’m a Rockies fan, and pissed as hell about Lee signing with Philly. I could give a damn what this means for the economics of baseball or who else he shafted, I want him as far from the NL as possible and anything else is extremely secondary. And if any “Rockies fan” sees it any other way, I’m prepared to call them a phony.
The Colorado Rockies aren't a team, they're an armada.
I want him away from the NL West
If he’s in the NL it doesn’t really bother me. It’s not like we have to have a better record than Philly over 162 games, all we have to do is beat them in a short series where all the pressure will be on them.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 11:26 PM MST up reply actions
If you want to be the best you have to beat the best at some point
I’d rather have to face the best in a short series.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 11:32 PM MST up reply actions
Better start lining up the pejoratives, then
At absolute maximum, he’s going to face us 2x in the regular season. More likely 1×. Possibly none.
So let's just win 12 more games next year, mmmkay?
Will the Gints complain about the non-humidor balls in Citizens Bank Ballpark when they lose there, too?
It's not like Lee is in our division
All we have to do is get in the playoffs and beat the Phils in a short series. That’s still very doable and will be and will look that much better if the Rockies are able to pull it off. These short series are extremely unpredictable and will continue to be even with the Phils rotation.
On the flip side, Lee just totally screwed the Yankees, which is awesome.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 11:23 PM MST up reply actions
Right
might only see Lee twice this year with a third possibility in a short series during the post-season. We will see how it turns out.
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
Only five regular season games vs Phillies
Odds of facing Lee twice are pretty low, equivalent with not facing him at all.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 11:40 PM MST up reply actions
Eh
I don’t look at it that way. If every time something bad happened to the Yankees I thought about how it helps the Red Sox and every time something bad happened to the Red Sox I thought about how it helps the Yankees I think I’d be pretty miserable.
I’ll choose to focus on Lee screwing the Yankees and the Red Sox winning exactly ZERO playoff games during the last two seasons despite spending $300 million.
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 11:56 PM MST up reply actions
And we got a discount on JDLR
The off season of pitcher discounts?
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
LOL at the East Coast media
Talking about the Phillies starting staff as one of the best ever. I’m not so sure it’s the best in the National League. I think the Giants rotation stacks up against Philly’s quite well.
The Colorado Rockies aren't a team, they're an armada.
They are close
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
Halladay=Lincecum
Cain<<Lee
Sanchez<Oswalt
BumgarnerKendrick
I take the Phils pretty easily.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 11:41 PM MST up reply actions
I take the Phillies easily too
because their offense is >>> Giants (granted this didn’t help in the playoffs)
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
I think you're underrating Matt Cain
Remember that time he almost no-hit the Rockies? And by “that time he almost no-hit the Rockies” I mean “Every time he faced the Rockies.”
The Colorado Rockies aren't a team, they're an armada.
Would you feel better if it was just one <? Lee is arguably the best pitcher in the game
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 13, 2010 11:46 PM MST up reply actions
Also
Hammels>>>Zito
109 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2010 11:47 PM MST up reply actions
That was supposed to say
BumgarnerKendrick
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 14, 2010 12:16 AM MST up reply actions
The Giants lineup handled the Phils withot Lee, then handled Lee.
The Giants lineup is not better than ours, ergo…
Go Bruce!
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