Thursday Rockpile: Jason Giambi imparting hitting wisdom, Troy Tulowitzki, 2010 MVP?
by Rox Girl on Feb 25, 2010 9:30 AM MST
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PrintI kind of glanced over the Brad Hawpe stories yesterday, and was about to do it again this morning, such as Thomas Harding's piece at the official site. I'm not entirely sure how to approach these, as I can't tell how much of this kind of press is for the player's benefit (no, you're not getting traded, Brad, we really do appreciate you) and how much of it is for the fans (no, Brad's not getting traded, we really do appreciate him). I know some Purple Row writers, namely Jeff (Jabberwocky) are in favor of trading Hawpe, personally I'm against it if there isn't a currently comparable player returning given the Rockies competition and the small margin of error we have in our projected win range. If the price of competing now is a lesser return for Hawpe later, then so be it, I'm willing to pay that.
On to another current Purple Row debate: I know there has been some chatter about the benefits of Dex vs CarGo batting first in the comments, but I've been saying that it's pretty clear that Jim Tracy prefers Carlos Gonzalez in the lead-off slot. Just to get it straight from the source, Harding talked to the manager and got a response that includes quite a few of Tracy's patented rhetorical questions. Again, the only part of the lineup that we can't completely discern is how he envisions the back with Stewart, Iannetta and Barmes.
Jason Giambi was apparently signed in part for his ability to be a player mentor to the Rockies young hitters:
"He had an invaluable effect on our club beyond anything I even imagined," O'Dowd said Wednesday. "He really helped teach our younger players what it means to slow the game down."
Despite O'Dowd's turn of phrase in the first part of that statement, there probably is some way to calculate what value the Rockies feel Giambi's non-game impact will be in 2010. Eric Young Jr. figured to be about a .75 to 1.25 win player with the Rockies in a more versatile role than what Giambi will provide. Giambi projects to be worth from about half a win over replacement to the lower end of the EY2 range. Given the difference, it seems the Rockies are valuing Giambi's mentorship role as about half a marginal win over a replacement player, which probably doesn't seem like much, but that's worth around $2.25 million on the MLB free agent market. He's given a lot of credit in the piece for helping our shortstop, but I particularly hope he's able to work some of that magic with our third baseman in 2010.
Troy Tulowitzki will be missing camp for a week to grieve for a death of a close family member.
Troy Renck had a blog post about Tulowitzki being a possible contender for the NL's MVP award. I'll break down how the early favorites stack up and what's going for and against Tulo after the jump.
For what it's worth, according to fans who have made projections at FanGraphs, they currently expect Tulo to be the NL's sixth most valuable player in WAR:
- Chase Utley 8.0
- Albert Pujols 7.9
- Hanley Ramirez 7.5
- Ryan Zimmerman 6.5
- David Wright 6.4
- Troy Tulowitzki 6.0
We can also look at these top six according to their CHONE projections:
- Ramirez 7.3
- Pujols 7.2
- Tulowitzki 6.3
- Utley 6.1
- Wright 5.2
- Zimmerman 5.0
What's in Troy's favor:
- His projected value is close enough to the top that it's easily conceivable that he could wind up 2010's most valuable player by the numbers.
- Ramirez, Zimmerman and Wright are on teams that project to have more difficulty making the playoffs than the other three, and MVP voters gravitate toward the playoff teams.
- Chase Utley's 600 at bats and 12.8 runs worth of defense projections seem a bit optimistic.
- FanGraphs readers have a history of underestimating Tulo, note that he's the only player of the six superstars to have a fan projection for 2010 that's lower than what CHONE's neutral spreadsheet suggests.
- Pujols won last year, and some voters might subconsciously hold that against him.
- Tulo plays in Coors Field, which is still a hitter's park, and will help him put up the kind of numbers that traditional MVP voters would like.
- Tulowitzki has been a leader of a playoff team two of the last three seasons, if he leads the Rockies to another playoff appearance (especially if it's a division title), he'd have given all MVP voters a third positive exposure, which should cement him as a known superstar. His first All-Star appearance (suggesting a strong first half for once) would also certainly help
What's not in his favor:
- Shortstop gets credit for being a premium position, but MVP voters seem to dig the long ball. Of the last 20 league MVP's (the last ten years, AL and NL) only three have been shortstops while 12 have gone to first baseman or outfielders. Second base and third have two each, and Joe Mauer's win last year was a rarity for a catcher (Pudge Rodriguez in 1999 and Thurman Munson in 1976 were the last two catcher MVPs).
- In a popularity vote like this, perception will typically trump the statistical data. If fans league-wide are underestimating Tulo relative to the other contenders, we can assume voting reporters are as well.
- Tulowitzki plays in the NL West, with most games coming too late to watch regularly for many Eastern voters, and in Colorado, which has a limited media reach.
- Tulowitzki plays in Coors Field, and voters savvy enough to know that it skews numbers for hitters, but not savvy enough to look deeper into how much, might discount him too much.
- Utley and Ramirez might get some extra sympathy votes if it's a close call given that they've been sort of shortchanged in the MVP vote the last few years. It could be a situation where some voters feel they're due while Tulo still has to pay his dues.
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We all know that
Jason Giambi was brought into to teach the guys how to play in a golden thong.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
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Chase Utley owns so incredibly hard
he’ll get overlooked because of Ryan Howard though.
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You mean
Hitting the most dingerz doesn’t make you the best player?
by Chacinisthefuture on Feb 25, 2010 10:21 AM MST up reply actions
no, just when they count
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 11:19 AM MST up reply actions
Good
O’Dowd’s logic was similar to mine regarding Giambi – ‘yea there are definitely better options out there for the Rockies, but Giambi’s the [expletive] man.’
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
yes. Times infinity
DON’T TURN YOUR BACK ON THE WOLF PACK
YOU MIGHT END UP IN A BODY BAG
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 9:55 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Bdddat bddat
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I am a wolfpack of one..
is this hotel pager friendly?
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by Charlie77 on Feb 25, 2010 1:31 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I know you probably get asked this a lot
but is this the real Caeser’s palace?
He looked like a Carlos to me too buddy..
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All this talk about east coast bias and undervaluing tulo has got me thinking
is anyone else still mad about ’07 golden gloves?
I know I am.
Stan Marsh is a Rockies fan.
I think
there are still those angry with 2007 for multiple reasons.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
:|
also I wanted to alert you the player link for EY2 somehow got truncated to just Eric Young.
Stan Marsh is a Rockies fan.
by fantasyfencing on Feb 25, 2010 9:59 AM MST up reply actions
The period at the end of junior probably makes that happen.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
Eliminate all punctuation we dont need it at all see this sentence works just fine without it
Attention Whore.
You're destroying
academia!
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
Considering
that’s what I will likely wind up in, yes.
And I’ll leave it at that before I wind up on a real rant. I’m not joking.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
Not to pick on you personally...
Too many of the academics I know live in cloud coukoo land and not in the “real world” Yes there are plenty of good teachers out there; but the ones who run the asylums seem to garner the attention. I mean no insult to you; but I am thin skinned about this too.
But even so the number of academics in cloud cuckoo land
Is massively dwarfed by the number of self-absorbed idiots who see intellectuality as a bad thing because it challenges their preconceptions, and they’d much rather go unchallenged than maybe realise that much of what they think might be prejudiced, outdated, ignorant or just plain wrong.
Give me someone who thinks any day.
by biondino on Feb 26, 2010 4:13 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't have trouble with intellect....
If I did ; I’d have a problem with Russ. He doesn’t live in cloud coukoo land. I don’t have problems with dreamers or thinkers either. One of my personal heros is the late Bill Lear. He invented among other things : the Lear jet, the fourtrack and eightrack tapes, what we now call recaro seats were originally LEAR-SIEGLER seats and carbon fiber with a fifth grade education.
There's a difference
between being intelligent and being smart. The collective intelligence of Rox Girl, Russ & Silverblood is one of the reasons I became a fan of Purple Row. They are also smart, likable people…the kind of people you want to sit next to at a ballgame.
Unfortunately, this site is becoming an outlet for egotistical intellects that try to give off the impression of being better than others, simply because they know where to put a comma. If you really have the need to correct grammar and spelling, start up a website for that purpose. Maybe, you could call it “English for the Anal Retentive” or “Grammar for Geeks”.
It seems as if Oldfoagie has become a target of the intellectual supercilious. Lighten up, this is a baseball site.
This is actually a good point.
It also shows up when a commenter doesn’t use the reply link.
I’ll just say that members shouldn’t keep telling others to use the reply link correctly. It’s off-putting and you never know who you might actually be talking to.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
I don't have a need for correct grammar
But I prefer it, there’s no reason not to expect it, and it makes it look like the poster is making an effort. If he/she can’t be bothered to do so, then maybe he/she should set up a website for that purpose.
I can understand the turn off of grammar/spelling Nazis
but I think the reply link suggestion is fine. I remember being extensively confused by SBNation’s layout and the technicalities of commenting when I first signed up, and I wish someone had helped. Of course, that seems silly now…As long as it is positive helpful criticism, I’m fine with it.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 1, 2010 9:52 AM MST up reply actions
it happens even if you don't.
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 11:20 AM MST up reply actions
MVP and RoY more so
MVP: “Well, Rollins was a good defensive shortstop, so he wins over Holliday”
Holliday – .340/.405/.607 OPS 1.012, 36 HR with .990 field %, 3 errors
Rollins – .296/.344/.531 OPS .875, 30 HR with .985 field %, 11 errors
RoY: “Well, Braun hit more dingerz, so he wins over Tulo”
Tulo – .291/.359/.479 OPS .838, 24 HR with .987 field %, 11 errors
Braun – .324/.370/.634 OPS 1.004, 34 HR with .895 field %, 26 errors
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Feb 25, 2010 10:13 AM MST up reply actions
I think we should blame the NY Mets for the MVP
If they don’t choke away the season, thus making Jimmy Rollins look like Nostradamus instead of a big wind bag Matt Holliday wins the MVP.
by Chacinisthefuture on Feb 25, 2010 10:18 AM MST up reply actions
I’ll always have fond memories of Matt saying “I think we’re the favorites to win the NL East.”
"I clearly miscalculated how popular it would be to show Calvin urinating on a Ford logo"--Bill Watterson
by frightened inmate #2 on Feb 25, 2010 11:00 AM MST up reply actions
aka ESPN Standard Time
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Hawpe and Error Margin
I’m not sure how you can say you’re against trading Hawpe because the margin for error is so slim, when just replacing him in the everyday lineup with Cargo or Seth Smith is likely to be an upgrade in terms of WAR. A full season of Smith (3.0 WAR in limited ’09 action) in left and Cargo (2.4 WAR in limited ’09 action) in right is almost a lock to outproduce Hawpe (career high 2.9 WAR 4 years ago) because of the defensive upgrade.
Also, it doesn’t really hurt depth, because Spilly is still around. So, if Hawpe can be traded for a couple of B/B+ AA prospects – which, given the return for Casey Blake, isn’t unreasonable – I don’t see why the team wouldn’t do it. Hanging on to him is antithetical to the goal of achieving sustainable long-term success.
The only downside I can see is who will hit in the 4-5 spot. Hawpe brings a huge contribution there, but as the teams from the late 90s to the early 90s prove, there’s a lot of ways to lose a game 13-12.
Beaten to death
Yes, I know the subject is a dead horse, but the long-term sustainable success is something that concerns me in regard to holding on to aging, defensively challenged players.
I say we wait till SDcat's predictions for Hawpe come true
and then trade him for a couple of A/A- prospects while reaping the benefits of a MVP season
by Chacinisthefuture on Feb 25, 2010 10:22 AM MST up reply actions
I wanted Hawpe traded
but I believe he’s a big part of this team in terms of the clubhouse/social realms. Since he is one of the few veterans around and is well liked, I wonder if trading him mid-season could negatively impact the team…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I sort of figured this would come up, this is pretty much exactly how I would have argued against myself
and have, actually.
Leaving defense aside for a moment, I think you’re underestimating the incremental damages that happen all along the outfield bench were he to go. Assuming Smith takes over, that means you have the downgrade from Smith to Spilborghs as the primary OF bench bat, which is quite a drop, the drop from Spilly to Matt Miller or EY2 as the secondary bat, you have the drop from CarGo to Spilly as back-up cf, again, no offense to Spilborghs who’s a decent fourth OF, but you’re talking in both this and the primary bench bat case of potentially having a minimal drop-off (meaning the replacements are about as good as the starters) versus having your more typical drop to a true bench level performer.
A significant injury to an outfielder would, of course, create much more damage than tat. It’s going to be a bit complicated to figure out the complete impact, but I don’t believe it’s as simple or as small as you’re implying.
A simple reply
Is that if the team had sought to trade him earlier, they could have kept Matt Murton. Since I don’t necessarily disagree with you, but rather think that a decent 5th OF wouldn’t be hard to salvage on a minor league deal (in particular, if the team had an Endy Chavez-type player in reserve to the Hawpe-less OF), it would be more useful than the current alignment.
But, if its and buts were candy and nuts, the Rockies would have two WS titles by now and Larry Walker would be in the HoF.
I would've loved to keep Matt Murton
I really would’ve.
but we have so much starting-caliber OF depth it’s not even funny.
It’s awesome, though.
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 11:29 AM MST up reply actions
It's PFS
But, why is/was the team thinking it can keep an overabundant surplus (is that redundant?) when there are other areas of need to address?
What happens when Rex Brothers and Tim Wheeler are (hopefully) ready to go in 2-3 years? And Cargo, Dex and Smith are still young. Do they keep all 5 again?
Brothers is a reliever holmes
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Rex Brothers is a closer, for starters
but I don’t like the overabundant surplus either. I want a good starting-caliber 4th OF who can play more than one position (like a Spilborghs), but the 5th OF can be a AAAA/Murton kind of guy. There just isn’t enough playing time for all 5, and Smith needs the starting spot, IMO, so by keeping that much backup, we’re really hurting the guys.
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 11:35 AM MST up reply actions
the other problem is the overabundant amount of lefty OFs
because Smith is a lefty and the two guys ahead of him are lefties it means he more than likely he is relegated to the 5th OF spot since Spilly is likely to start ahead of him when a lefty pitcher is on the mound that day.
by BringItHome on Feb 25, 2010 11:45 AM MST up reply actions
to which I simply reply
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 11:54 AM MST up reply actions
I'm actually surprised they didn't keep Murton
and use having him as backup to trade Hawpe…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Wait until Scott Beerer cracks the lineup in August..
Seth will be the 5th outfielder behind Dex.
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by Charlie77 on Feb 25, 2010 1:39 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
lol, I can see it now
Hawpe gets hurt, and they call up Matt Miller to play LF instead of Smith.
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 25, 2010 1:40 PM MST up reply actions
Then Vinny Castilla comes out of retirement..
and Tracy moves Ian Stewart to LF ahead of Seth.
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As RMN alluded to, having an overabundance of outfielders is a misallocation of resources.
There are other areas where the team has a greater need, so having a backup option that is as good as your primary seems wasteful to me. That backup player probably will have less of an outcome on the final record than the other areas of need. I like Barmes and think his glove makes him valuable to the team, but if it were possible to trade Hawpe for a better second baseman, I think the value in the outfield would only decrease marginally, while the increase in value from the second baseman would be larger (depending on the player, of course).
I just don't see how you could say that.
The average NL West fourth outfielder in 2009 got 343 plate appearances, or roughly the equivalent of a half-time player. At Seth Smith’s offensive level of production, adding a little given that because he’s as good as he he’d get more PA’s than your average bench bat, that’s the equivalent of adding an extra average position player’s worth of wins. The Rockies are in effect playing with nine guys compared to the other team’s eight.
If this is a misallocation of resources, your hypothetical second baseman would be worth approximately four wins, there were seven of these guys in the majors last year, you tell me which one we’re trading Hawpe for. I just don’t buy that misallocation thing one bit.
my English major math is probably a little off there on the difference,
but I’m sticking with my guns on the point here, that the people in favor of trading Hawpe are underestimating the impact of a Smith level bench bat.
Without doing the math
I think the idea is that Spilly’s wins as 4th outfielder should probably be close to Hawpe’s as a starter. Then you project Smith’s wins upwards starting. Then you get top defense in the outfield as a bonus. A 2B would then just have to beat Barmes in wins to improve there (which Hudson, the name floated most often here, would be).
Most of the discussion seems fixated on the fact that we have major depth in the OF but were a bit thin in the infield (2B and 1B/3B backup). The decisions on how to address the infield has already been made now.
The FO seems set on keeping Hawpe & Spilly given everything they’ve said so far. So if there’s any trade on the outfield depth, I imagine it’d be Smith on the block. Even that seems fairly unlikely given the offseason acquisitions, so we’ll probably just have to “deal” with too many OF. Not a horrible problem to have, and as was mentioned, we’ll be pretty happy if someone has an injury.
Not sure "happy" is the proper word for an injury. But at least we'll be well positioned and won't completely come undone.
Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything. ~Toby Harrah, 1983
4th OF
I don’t really see why the 4th OF has to be Smith-good. Why not just Spilly good? He was off last year, but if you extrapolate his ‘07 (1.9) or ’08 (1.3) over a full season, you get a 4th OF in the 3-4 win range. That’s plenty good for a 4th OF who can play 2 of 3 OF positions well, and can pass at all 3.
Here’s the problem: The Rockies have a 4th OF who outproduces the starting RF, and enough flexibility to shift the 4th OF into the lineup without sending him to slaughter in Coors’ RF.
I get that there are reverberations through the bench if Spilly is the 4th OF, but it also creates more ABs for EY2,
See, what it comes down to is that I'd much much rather have Hawpe or Smith getting those extra AB's than EY2 and Spilly
And given that we’re talking about over 300, the difference in value becomes substantial.
Right,
but you’re talking about 300-350 ABs, and the proponents of starting Smith and moving Hawpe are talking about 800-900 ABs (starting OF (RF) +4th OF – 4th OF AB in RF).
Where Hawpe has put up an average of 1.25 WAR over ~500 ABs for the last 4 years, you’d have a chance to shift Cargo’s WAR over to RF, which would almost certainly be an upgrade over Hawpe, and plug Smith’s 4-5 WAR over 500-600 ABs in LF. Then, you drop about a half a win to a win from Smith to Spilly as the 4th OF.
So here’s the tradeoff:
RF: +2.75 WAR (assuming Cargo is a 4 win player)
LF: roughly the same from Cargo to Smith
4th OF: -.5 to 1 WAR.
Net gain: ~1-2 WAR. Maybe I’m abusing WAR, but that seems like a significant upgrade.
You are abusing WAR or maybe just some of these projections, and it seems you might be abusing my argument too,
By 300 AB’s, I was referring specifically to the ones at the end of the chain that Hawpe’s currently going to have that would be going to either Spilborghs or Young. But you have actually made me go into the specific numbers. Using a split similar to last season’s in playing time and AB projections based on the projected lineup order:
Current alignment
1. RF
600 AB’s currently to Hawpe, worth 24 runs on offense according to CHONE (and if your argument’s really about his defense, which I think it is, than you should switch to innings in the field)
@50 back-up AB’s, currently mostly to Spilborghs (Smith didn’t play one inning in right last year, I hope that changes) worth about .65 runs according to CHONE projections
Total: about 25 runs
2. CF
500 AB’s to Fowler, worth about 8 runs
200 AB’s to CarGo, worth about 6 runs
14 runs
3. LF
400 AB’s to CarGo, worth about 12 runs
250 AB’s to Smith, worth about 10 runs
22 runs
4. PH
100 AB’s to Smith, worth about 5 runs
50 AB’s to Spilborghs, worth about 1 run
50 AB’s to Giambi, worth about 1.5 runs
Overall total, 68.5 runs of value over replacement on offense
Your scenario:
RF
650 AB’s to Smith, worth about 20 runs
50 AB’s to Spilborghs, worth about 1 run
21 runs
CF
650 AB’s to Fowler, worth about 11 runs
50 AB’s to Spilborghs, worth about 1 run
12 runs
LF
650 AB’s to Gonzalez, worth about 20 runs
25 AB’s to Spilborghs, worth about 1 run
21 runs
PH
100 AB’s to Giambi, worth about 3 runs
50 AB’s to Spilborghs, worth about 1 run
50 AB’s to EY2, worth about half a run.
4.5 runs
Overall total, 58.5 runs
Given that offensive edge, for the difference in the switch to be truly worth 1 to 2 WAR, you’re going to have to make up 20 to 30 runs on the defensive projections, and given that you’re going to deal with a downgrade in center according to UZR (switching from Gonzalez @ 20 percent playing time to mostly Fowler with a little Spilly) it means that you expect Smith to really be 25 to 35 runs more valuable than Hawpe in right field. I would suggest that because UZR’s pretty quirky with the outfield and not very reliable, Smith won’t be nearly that big of an improvement over the full season at Coors and I actually believe that at the end of the day, the scenarios are about equal in value if everybody’s healthy.
Now picture one of our starting OF’s tearing a hamstring. Which scenario would you rather have? I really don’t think it’s a contest anymore.
Defense is too undervalued IMO..
While I think Hawpe will provide an offensive spark that these other guys can’t quite reach; their defensive effort would make up for Hawpe’s OPS. While UZR is getting close, I would like to see something that measures defensive value a little better and someday people will understand how a good defender will save as many runs as a good bat will produce.
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Well, I concede that I could be understimating the value that Smith would provide from the bench.
But Hawpe was worth less than 1 WAR the last two seasons combined. Let’s go with his CHONE projection and say he’s around two, and estimate that Smith would go from 3 to 4.5 or so by getting more PAs. Spilly is somewhere around 1 WAR, and Barmes is around 2. (I assume these factor in yearly UZR data, which has been noted for its variance, so Hawpe and Barmes might be valued incorrectly.) So, if you subtract Hawpe, and replace Smith’s bench production with Spilly’s while upgrading Smith to 4.5 WAR, the new 2B would only need to provide 3 WAR to be an improvement overall.
Obviously these numbers are a little fuzzy and could easily change. And you could make an argument that Hawpe isn’t that bad in the field, and Barmes isn’t that good, so the increase in WAR would be negligible.
It just seems like we have a surplus in one area, and we can’t use all of our outfielders at the same time, so we might as well move some of that surplus for an upgrade elsewhere.
I as always have a different take.
I thought the time to trade Hawpe was twoyears ago when they could have gotten some value for him. My solution would be to have Hawpe be what he really should have been all along which is Todd’s backup. Let him be the fifth outfielder and extra bat off the bench..
If Giambi is to be a player coach (and maybe down the road Baylor’s replacement) ; let him be third first baseman and primary LH PH. Let him in the meantime get a head start on his next career.
^ this
I’m not really a stat-head (though my engineer brain can understand when someone lays it out), but this would be my big-picture view as well.
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The future looks bright, Rox - BRING ON 2010!!!
by Rox the Casbah on Feb 25, 2010 9:31 PM MST up reply actions
Just to be clear, this is my detailed opinion on Hawpe:
Just what is Brad Hawpe Worth Exactly?
Answer: less to the Rockies than he is to other teams
I don’t see eye to eye with RG on this subject because, quite frankly, I think that Hawpe will be an active detriment to the Rockies this year. Yes, his presence gives the team more depth, but IMO that pales in comparison to the gain by getting CarGo, Fowler, and Smith more PAs.
The wild card in that equation would be Spilborghs, who I actually believe will have a down year as well. With Hawpe gone he’d get more PAs, as RG has detailed, and so will EY2. I still believe though that the Rockies are better without Hawpe than with him as an everyday starter. As a fourth outfielder/back-up heir apparent 1B, Hawpe would be great—but he is miscast in the role he’s slated to play.
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by Jeff Aberle on Feb 25, 2010 11:59 PM MST up reply actions
Does it also help Tulo this year knowing that he will be the 4 hole guy all year?
it seems that by going into the season knowing that he will be the RBI guy means he will be in a much better position to produce runs for the team throughout the year instead of last year when he was put all over the line up for the first half of season.
That Fangraphs public lynching of Tulo is mindblowing
I wonder how many of them feel silly right now.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 25, 2010 10:27 AM MST reply actions
You read it
on the inteNeTZ. It must be true.
Let this be a lesson. The only place to find true things on the internet is at Purple Row.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
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I searched "Purple Row" on wikipedia to no avail
the same happened on conservapedia
Attention Whore.
Did anyone see the Giambi quote from last night
On ESPN’s Spring Blog. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4941053&name=mlb_spring_training
kind of a confusing quote. The writer decided that Giambi was implying that the Rockies have no opportunity to win?
“I would’ve loved that opportunity to see what I could do [as a] DH day-in and out with a team that had an opportunity [to win].
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 25, 2010 10:50 AM MST up reply actions
BREAKING NEWS!!!!!
Giambi really wanted to know what it would be like to play day-in, day-out as a DH in the AL for a team that had NO CHANCE at winning.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
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I think that Giambi was saying that ideally
He would like to be a starter on a contending team (and who wouldn’t) but if that wasn’t possible he would rather be a bench player here, then starting for a crap team.
by Chacinisthefuture on Feb 25, 2010 11:03 AM MST up reply actions
pretty sure russ gets that
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 11:25 AM MST up reply actions
I think he was actually implying that he didn't think any of the teams offering DH jobs had a chance to win.
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 25, 2010 11:02 AM MST up reply actions
I'm like 99% sure that's what he meant
he loved it here last september.
he’s being honest, “I would’ve loved to be a full time DH” but he qualifies that by expressing the desire to be on a winning team.
Winning Team > Full time DH
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 11:26 AM MST up reply actions
huzzah!!
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Rangers void Khalil Greene's contract
since he couldn’t show up to camp due to his anxiety.
Kind of sad.
Sad, yes, but I think it's obviously reasonable to void the contract.
Khalil Greene needs help, and the last thing he needs is to be pressured to play baseball. Being let off the hook may be the best thing for him.
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 25, 2010 1:37 PM MST up reply actions
It's reasonable
but pretty sad. I just hope he has plenty of money set aside and some people close to him to help him through this. He clearly has serious issues (was cutting his arms apparently last season).
I'm sure, at the very least, he has people who will help take care of him.
He’s a Baha’i, and they’re a very tight-knit group.
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 25, 2010 2:12 PM MST up reply actions
WHarding talked to the manager and got a response that includes quite a few of Tracy's patented rhetorical questions. Again, the only part of the lineup that we can't completely discern is how he envisions the back with Stewart, Iannetta and Barmes.HAT?
“Harding talked to the manager and got a response that includes quite a few of Tracy’s patented rhetorical questions. Again, the only part of the lineup that we can’t completely discern is how he envisions the back with Stewart, Iannetta and Barmes.”
With the exception of Helton and Hawpe, what players, including Tulo, have had enough MLB at bats, to infer the total season rests on the shoulder of Stewart, Barmes, and Ianetta?, RoxGirl, could you address this issue? Or maybe Tracy?
I may be misunderstanding your question but I don't think Rox Girl is inferring that at all.
I think she’s only referring to the lineup construction and the fact that we know where everyone else is likely to slot except for those three.
If you trade Hawpe...
… and I think that they should seriously consider it. I think that they need to look no further than Atkins, and if they had moved him a year or two ago at this time. They would have gotten more than a compensation draft pick.
I think the lineup is obvious if Hawpe is gone: Fowler leads off, Smith bats 2nd (dude has good OBP), CarGo bats 5th (he has power and is going to be a 3, 4, or 5 hitter eventually, right?).
EY2 can be the 5th outfielder and play a little 2nd, pinch hit, pinch run, make it worth while. If you can package Hawpe, one of the starters (like JDLR) and a prospect (Chacin maybe) and pull a Cliff Lee type of deal, I see no reason not to do so. I can see why you’d knock trading Hawpe for prospects. I am talking about taking some of that depth and going for it this year. I don’t know who’s out there or available, and those names will shift at the deadline, but I think it’s something they should consider.
we're getting absolutely nothing for Atkins.
just fyi
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 1:29 PM MST up reply actions
What about peace of mind?
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
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Hawpe is also not declining at anywhere near the rate Atkins was declining.
I wouldn’t lose sleep that Hawpe will get that bad, he’s still a good hitter overall.
Hawpe has been streaky in the extreme at times
but has consistently hit for .283 AVG, 20+ HR and 80+ RBIs, and OPS .875 over 6 seasons according to Baseball-Reference. I think most teams would take those numbers. Including the Rockies :)http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hawpebr01.shtml
Troy Tulowitzki - Best SS in the MLB - 2010 MVP
"With a guy like Melo, it’s tough to stop him with one person. You can’t. I don’t know one guy who can stop Melo on a consistent basis."-CP3
Brad Hawpe - Will prove the doubters wrong
PS Let's win the NL West in 2010, shall we?
he was 25th in WAR among all RF with 400+ PA last year
behind such perennial all-stars as Melky Cabrera and Randy Winn. so no, most teams don’t need those kind of numbers. maybe 3 or 4.
by Jim Jiminez on Feb 26, 2010 10:20 AM MST up reply actions
and this is the great debate at hand
WAR vs UZR vs AVG vs HR etc…..which is more highly valued :)
Troy Tulowitzki - Best SS in the MLB - 2010 MVP
"With a guy like Melo, it’s tough to stop him with one person. You can’t. I don’t know one guy who can stop Melo on a consistent basis."-CP3
Brad Hawpe - Will prove the doubters wrong
PS Let's win the NL West in 2010, shall we?
his bat is consistent (as far as season-to-season goes)
so you’re absolutely right
that doesn’t dismiss poor fielding, whether it’s UZR or RZR or whatever motorola phone you’re using.
However, AL teams would be interested in him as a DH or 1B I’d wager.
or just dumb teams who overvalue his arm and don’t realize he has the range of a person in a wheelchair when it comes to fielding :-(
you know I love Hawpe’s bat. You know this to be true. I just know there’s a big picture to look at.
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 26, 2010 11:28 PM MST up reply actions
Not having to pay him $4 million this year is enough for me at this point.
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by Jeff Aberle on Feb 25, 2010 11:50 PM MST up reply actions
the point was no tangible return
addition by subtraction, yes.
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 26, 2010 12:37 PM MST up reply actions
I think it's too late to trade Hawpe...
His deffiencies are too well known and he is overpaid enough to diminish what you’d get in return. Overall you’ve got a Darryl Strawberry type player without the intimidation and drugs. The difference is Strawberry could play his position when he wanted too. The power is different but the value is the same because a lot of Darryl’s HR’s were me too shots. Adjusted for ball park effects and eras they should be close. DS hada a lower avg and more home runs. Hawpe has more avg slightly less HR’s and more 2b’s. Both are streaky as all get out. Darryl had a ton more speed but was a sloppy base runner.
I don't think compareing him to Darryl Strawberry is calling him bad.
Before that All Star break; most of the country did not know who he was. I have always thought that Brad has done reasonably well for someone playing out of position. How many All Star games did Strawberry get sent to? He is a consistant performer in what numbers he puts up for a season. I just wish he was more consistant in how he puts them up. I think that he will be Todd’s eventual replacement. No knock intended to anybody. It’s how I evaluate the talent.
the question on when/if he replaces Helton
is how good will HE still be then? How much longer does Helton have, and how much are we going to sacrifice to keep him in the lineup so he doesn’t die out while Helton plays out his twilight years?
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 26, 2010 11:29 PM MST up reply actions
He won't have a long reign...
Two or three years with Mora’s prime years numbers unless the Rox develope someone better to replace them both.
You made me look up Strawberry
Career numbers:
Hawpe: .283/.377/.498, 111 HRS. 2414 ABs.
Strawberry: .259/.357/.505, 335 HRs. 221 SBs. About twice as many at bats (5418) for his career.
So Straw could run faster, hit more homers, but Hawpe hits for higher average, walks more, and in the end, they slug about the same. I don’t think comparing Hawpe to Strawberry is an insult in any way.
oh, I didn't take it as an insult
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 28, 2010 8:50 PM MST up reply actions
The Rockies are looking for a breast cancer survivor..
To be an honorary bat girl. http://tinyurl.com/yfb6qms
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by Charlie77 on Feb 25, 2010 1:37 PM MST via mobile reply actions
If only they were look for just a cancer survivor in general
I’d be the guy.
"I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats." - Bill Veeck.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Feb 25, 2010 2:13 PM MST up reply actions
Yay!
I did it a few hours ago.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
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For the last two years, I bought GameDay audio separately.
I only discovered midway through last year you got audio included with MLBTV.
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 25, 2010 2:14 PM MST up reply actions
I'm debating keeping my GameDay audio
subscription and getting MLB Extra Innings this year. Overall it would be more expensive than MLBTV, but (1) I’m not convinced my computer would handle MLBTV well, (2) I like watching things on my TV, and (3) I think I would prefer being able to watch on tv with PR on my computer, without having to worry about switching between it and MLBTV. Plus, I tend to multitask with other online things, as well. I still haven’t quite decided yet, though.
I've never had a problem with task management as a result of MLBTV
Then again, I’m like an ace multitasker, so..
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 25, 2010 2:19 PM MST up reply actions
Can MLBTV be viewed full screen, though?
That’s the thing. I feel like I’d end up reducing the size of the game in order to do other things, and thus I’d rather be able to have the game on the tv and everything else on my computer.
What are the specs of your laptop.
I used regular MLB.tv on my old laptop for a year and a half before getting a new one. Had I used the old laptop any longer I think I would have had problems.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
Old
That’s the specs of my laptop. I bought it in 2005. I already have trouble at times with other streaming video, so I’m fairly certain MLBTV would be problematic. I’ve been wanting to get a new laptop for awhile, just haven’t gotten to that point yet.
But that’s really just one part of why I might go with Extra Innings instead.
Yes, it can.
I never do though. I actually often just have the feed off to the side, only half watching it.
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 25, 2010 2:28 PM MST up reply actions
I end up doing the same thing with my TV.
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 25, 2010 4:53 PM MST up reply actions
get a device
to send it to your tv, and use your computer. Or have more than 1 computer. That is what I do.
I was just looking at the list of features
and it mentions access to the “New Pitch by Pitch App.” Does that mean something is replacing Gameday?
Maybe.
Perhaps just another upgrade to GameDay.
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 25, 2010 2:18 PM MST up reply actions
Holly
Just want RoxGirl’s take on these statements, So these guys need more pressure to preform?
holly was correct, I think you misread what I was writing...
That sentence was just meant to say that we haven’t seen any publicized comments by Tracy about their spots in the batting order as we have with everybody else who are slated to hit 1-5. He’s said CarGo’s leading off (implying Fowler’s second), he’s said that Hawpe’s batting fifth and that Tulo’s clean-up with Helton third. We just don’t know what order those other three will be in from six to eight. It wasn’t a statement about what’s expected of them this season, but we should probably get into that at some point.
What was there a question mark at the end of the following sentence? :-)
“Troy Tulowitzki, 2010 MVP?”
"I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats." - Bill Veeck.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Feb 25, 2010 2:14 PM MST reply actions
In all seriousness though I think you break in down really well
The only thing I disagree on is the first point (in things working against him) about shortstops not getting love in the MVP voting hurting chances. As you mentiond, HR hitters are favored in a vote like this and shortstops generally don’t hit HR’s. That dosn’t apply to Tulo though. (32 HR’s last year and our cleanup hitter for all of this year) I think if anything doing this at shortstop helps him.
"I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats." - Bill Veeck.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Feb 25, 2010 2:19 PM MST up reply actions
Rox Girl
Please re-read my original post, more that once we have seen the indication that all the starters with the exception of Stewart, Barmes and Ianetta, can be counted on to carry the load of the offence, and the only three question marks, would be the 3 aforementioned players. Perhaps this is putting an undo pressure on the other 5 players. Back to the subject, why are these 5, with the exception of Helton and Hawpe, considered MLB vets, where this assumption can be made with any kind of validity.
I'm not sure where you're getting your assumptions from... particularly that MLB vet "counting on..." thing
Fowler certainly isn’t in that category of being considered an MLB vet. With CarGo there’s still some sketchiness even though we’re excited, Tracy’s simply locking them into the top of the lineup for the same reason most any other manager would, they have speed.
The Rockies are certainly counting on Iannetta and Stewart to shoulder some pretty significant chunk of the offensive load.
For future reference
when you want to respond to one of Rox Girl’s posts…please click in the link that says REPLY on her post.
Thank you.
Hating Cubs fans since 1908
oh hey hizilla's here :V
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 10:47 PM MST up reply actions
Rox Girl
I appreciate ou patience with me, I have seen many time lately, as late as today, with Tracy insinuating that if there are if"s in the line-up, it is the three I’ve mentioned. My only point is history, with the exception of Helton and Hawpe, prove nothing about the others, including Tulo.
What ifs?
Tracy has made it very clear he strongly rates all three of the players you mention. Injuries could change the back end of the lineup, and it’s not impossible that Olivo/Mora could have a blinding ST while the incumbents fail, but at present – which is all we can discuss – Stewart, Ianetta and Barmes are about as nailed on as starters as they can be.
Cargo isn't so sure
Jesus, I like him very much, but he no help with curveball.
by phishbate on Feb 25, 2010 4:05 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Are you saying
That Jesus Christ can’t hit a curveball?
by PurpleRowRox on Feb 25, 2010 4:20 PM MST up reply actions
were you not around in 2007
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 5:10 PM MST up reply actions
I want one of those shirts
"I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats." - Bill Veeck.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Feb 25, 2010 6:16 PM MST up reply actions
He loves everyone.
Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything. ~Toby Harrah, 1983
well. That takes care of that.
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 10:47 PM MST up reply actions
That t-shirt actually bothers me for one reason....
…brings back the unfairly applied criticism about the team a couple of years back….
Besides, there’s no reason at all that Buddah can’t love the Rockies, too (except that Kung Fu Panda, his natural physical likeness, plays on the Bay….)
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
I'd love to get past that too
but several of the core players seem to be quite religious. I mean Smith’s walkup music is “Jesus Freak”. And not to get into a discussion of religion but I’m not a fan of overly public displays. They’re free to do whatever they want though.
Offtopic
For anyone old enough to have watched Growing Pains, I just saw news that the actor who played Mike’s friend “Boner” (that would totally not fly these days) has been missing since Valentine’s Day and was found dead today in Vancouver (weird timing). Bummer.
Bob Gebhard suffered a heart attack yesterday
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 25, 2010 11:03 PM MST via mobile reply actions
where'd you see that?
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by Andrew Martin on Feb 25, 2010 11:08 PM MST up reply actions
A Nick Piecoro tweet, I believe
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Feb 26, 2010 9:28 AM MST up reply actions
Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times tweets..
that Ronnie Belliard didn’t weigh in today and is close to having his contract voided. He has to weigh in at under 210.
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Whoooa.
Jamey Carroll to start after all? lol.
by Greg Stanwood on Feb 25, 2010 11:17 PM MST up reply actions
Raygu will have to reload and rewrite..
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The Dodgers can sign Lopez...
…as long as he’s willing to play for the same salary I make. Unless the soon to be former Mrs. McCourt pays out in other ways….
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