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This Ought to be Unpopular: The Wild Card vs Division Winners


Remember a couple of months ago when I introduced that crazy playoff scenario that everybody hated?  (If not here's a chance to catch up.)  I won't bring up that playoff scenario again, at least not yet; instead I will delve into one of the reasons I believe a playoff adjustment needs to be made.  It's all about the Wild Card vs. the Division winners.

 

Now that 15 Wild Card postseason have played out before our eyes (1995-2009), there is a decent sample size to tell us how they did.  We have had 30 Wild Card teams in this 15 year period; 15 in the AL and 15 in the NL.  Since four teams make the playoffs from each league, random chance says that each playoff slot (East Division winner, Central Division winner, West Division winner, and Wild Card winner) should reach the World Series 25% of the time.  However, we shouldn't be dealing with random chance here because the Wild Card team has to face two opponents who have home field advantage over them to reach the World Series.  So if MLB is trying to penalize the Wild Card team by sending them on the road, the desired result is for the Wild Card team to reach the World Series less than 25% of the time.  So just how successful have they been?  Let's take a look.

Star-divide

Year

Wild Card Team

Result

1995 (AL)

New York Yankees

Lost in ALDS to Mariners

1995 (NL)

Colorado Rockies

Lost in NLDS to Braves

1996 (AL)

Baltimore Orioles

Lost in  ALCS to Yankees

(but got screwed by Jeffrey Maier)

1996 (NL)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Lost in NLDS to Braves

1997 (AL)

New York Yankees

Lost in ALDS to Indians

1997 (NL)

Florida Marlins

Won World Series

1998 (AL)

Boston Red Sox

Lost in ALDS to Indians

1998 (NL)

Chicago Cubs

Lost in NLDS to Braves

1999 (AL)

Boston Red Sox

Lost in ALCS to Yankees

1999 (NL)

New York Mets

Lost in NLCS to Braves

2000 (AL)

Seattle Mariners

Lost in ALCS to Yankees

2000 (NL)

New York Mets

Reached World Series

2001 (AL)

Oakland A's

Lost to Yankees in ALDS

2001 (NL)

St. Louis Cardinals

Lost to D'Backs in NLDS  

2002 (AL)

Anaheim Angels

Won World Series

2002 (NL)

San Francisco Giants

Reached World Series

2003 (AL)

Boston Red Sox

Lost to Yankees in ALCS

2003 (NL)

Florida Marlins

Won World Series

2004 (AL)

Boston Red Sox

Won World Series

2004 (NL)

Houston Astros

Lost to Cardinals in NLCS

2005 (AL)

Boston Red Sox

Lost to White Sox in ALDS

2005 (NL)

Houston Astros

Reached World Series

2006 (AL)

Detroit Tigers

Reached World Series

2006 (NL)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Lost to Mets in NLDS

2007 (AL)

New York Yankees

Lost to Indians in ALDS

2007 (NL)

Colorado Rockies

Reached World Series

2008 (AL)

Boston Red Sox

Lost to Rays in ALCS

2008 (NL)

Milwaukee Brewers

Lost to Phillies in NLDS

2009 (AL)

Boston Red Sox

Lost to Angels in ALDS

2009 (NL)

Colorado Rockies

Lost to Phillies in NLDS

 

Of the 30 Wild Card teams, nine of them have reached the World Series and four of them have won it.  This means that Wild Card teams are reaching the World Series a staggering 30% of the time.  Not only are the Wild Card teams not at a disadvantage in the postseason, they are actually reaching the World Series more than even random chance would suggest.  What does this mean?  It means that winning your division is worth absolutely nothing (in relation to winning the Wild Card); it means that home field advantage in the postseason is a farce; and it means that MLB should look into doing something to put the Wild Card team at a disadvantage once the postseason begins.  I find it completely ridiculous that a team can prove themselves to be the best in their division for 162 games and yet a Wild Card team can just erase that by beating them in a short series were they weren't at a disadvantage at all.

 

I've noticed that the mood on The Row lately has really started focusing in on winning the NL West this season; Jabbs even guaranteed it in a recent article.  But the truth is, it really doesn't matter if the Rockies take to West as long as they win the Wild Card.  Winning you division simply means nothing once the postseason starts, and last I checked they don't give out a trophy for winning the West.  Don't get me wrong, I want the Rockies to win the West, it's just that as long as they make it to the postseason I'm happy.  It's not the way I want it to be, it's just the way it is.

 

Before I wrap this up, I want to see just how important winning the West is to everyone here.  I'm going to lay out two theoretical scenarios and you pick which one you would take for the 2010 Rockies.

 

Scenario A: The Rockies win the Wild Card.  That's it.  No division and no knowledge of what they do in the postseason.

 

Scenario B: Here you take a gamble.  In this scenario you have a 90% chance of winning the division and a 10% chance of missing the playoffs entirely.  Again you have no knowledge of what the team would do if they reached the postseason. It's all about sacrificing 10% of your guarantee to make the playoffs in order to win the division.

Poll
Which scenario would you take for the Rockies?
Scenario A: I just want a ticket to the postseason
28 votes
Scenario B: I really want the West (and RIRF has no clue what he's talking about)
27 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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SSS!!!

Just kidding. But seriously, an interesting read, but I disagree that a change needs to be made. The wild card earns a spot in the playoffs by being the 4th best team…they still got to earn it.
To turn your notion of fairness on its head, look to the ZOMG AL East. Year in and year out, both the Sox and Yankees have what it takes to win any division in the AL, but only one can win the AL East…is it fair for the odd man out to not see the playoffs just cause its in a division with the latter? With no wild card, I’d try to change divisions…cause that way you’ve got a statistically better shot of getting in.
But what do I know, right?

Counting Colorado Tacos since 2006!

by fantasyfencing on Mar 16, 2010 7:20 AM MDT reply actions  

Thank you RG

Although..I do think that RIRF was thinking about removing all the sub-divisions and just hav ethe AL/NL split..and take the top 4 from each leauge…I could be wrong though…he may have advocating for getting rid of everything, and have a free for all and have the top 4 total make the playoffs…

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by Maria M on Mar 16, 2010 9:49 AM MDT up reply actions  

I actually agree with a lot of what you and others are saying

Many times, if not most of the time, the Wild Card team is either the second or third best team in their league. I also agree that a team like the 82 win Padres getting rewarded is a bigger problem with the current system than the Wild Card reaching the World Series so often (but I won’t go into the details of that with this post). The reason why the Wild Card team reaching the World Series so often (even if they are the second or third best team) is such a big problem though, is that it devalues winning your division.

I looked at the postseason results of the 30 teams that won the division the Wild Card came from. (So this would be the Dodgers (Rockies won the Wild Card), and Yankees (Red Sox won Wild Card) in 2009 and Cubs (Brewers won Wild Card), and Rays (Red Sox won Wild Card) in 2008………..ect……….all the way back to 1995 when the Red Sox (Yankees won Wild Card) and Dodgers (Rockies won WIld Card) won the division the wild card came from). When looking at these numbers, nine teams (96 Yankees, 98 Yankees, 99 Yankees, 99 Braves, 03 Yankees, 04 Cardinals, 07 Red Sox, 08 Rays, and 09 Yankees) made it to the World Series.

This means that accoring to our 15 years of Wild Card history, teams that make the playoffs from the same division (one as the Wild Card and one as the division winner) have the exactly the same chance to make it to the World Series. (In both cases 9 of the 30 teams made it to the World Series)

This also supports both my theory and the theory made by you and others here. It says that many times the division the Wild Card team comes from is just a better division as illustrated by the fact that 18 of our 30 World Series teams (or 60% of them) came from the Wild Card division. It also says though, that of those 18 teams to reach the World Series 9 have come by division winner and 9 have come by Wild Card; meaning that as long as you make the playoffs it doesn’t matter if you do it by winning you division or by winning the Wild Card.

As far as bragging rights go, I think putting a flag up to say you won the division loses a lot of it’s value if a team gets ousted in the first round of the playoffs. My reason for writing this post was to show that the percived stigma that exists about division winners haveing a better chance to get to the World Series is false. I also just kind of wanted to see how important winnign the west was to Rockies fans here on the Row as opposed to winning the Wild Card.

"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 17, 2010 1:25 PM MDT up reply actions  

And I actually like baseball's playoff format better than any other sport's

I know it’s probably hard to believe with the way I bashed the Wild Card thing in this post but I believe the 162 game schedule really works well because baseball allows so few teams into the playoffs and it usually is a battle amoung the elites. I think there are some big flaws in the system but I don’t completely hate it as whole.

"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 17, 2010 1:28 PM MDT up reply actions  

Normally I'd agree that it only matters if you make it to the postseason

then it’s pretty much up to the hottest team at the moment. But winning the division carries a lot more weight than slipping in as a wild card and I feel like the Rockies are overdue for their first. In 2010 all I want is the west.

"Because I am a Rockie." - Todd

Countdown 2010:
Opening Day @ Milwaukee | Home Opener vs San Diego

by phishbate on Mar 16, 2010 8:30 AM MDT reply actions  

If you're arguing that the least deserving team sometimes wins the whole thing, I'm not completely sure that's the case.

To me, succeeding in the regular season (i.e., division title) and succeeding in the postseason (i.e., world series appearance and/or win), take two different strategies and skillsets. It’s like a chess match versus instant death trivia. On the one hand, you have to strategize about who to play, who not to play, when to keep your starter in rather than overtaxing the bullpen, etc. On the other, some teams are built in a way that they can dominate one team better than another, and the first team you will end up playing in the postseason isn’t really a given. Also, the team that is playing best come October might not have been playing at such an elite level for the whole season.

I wonder if rooting for a geographically distant team changes your perspective on the Wild card vs. division title debate. (This isn’t a slam on you in the slightest, just an observation.) I am in a position where I go to half a dozen or so games a year, and I would rather watch more winning games throughout the season. As a fan, a lot of the greatest moments in rockies history came in the regular season.

Saved by the buoyancy of citrus.

by Justus on Mar 16, 2010 12:31 PM MDT reply actions  

I think this is where your shift in perspective comes from
I find it completely ridiculous that a team can prove themselves to be the best in their division for 162 games and yet a Wild Card team can just erase that by beating them in a short series were they weren’t at a disadvantage at all.

Best in their division perhaps, but some teams have won some weeeeaaaak divisions. Some wild cards are better than division winners. Let’s take a look at the records and how many wild card winners had the 4th best record.
1995: New York – 3rd (considering Mariners play-in game), Colorado – 4th
1996: Baltimore – 4th, Los Angeles – 2nd
1997: New York – 2nd, Florida – 2nd
1998: Boston – 2nd, Chicago – 4th
1999: Boston – 4th, New York – 3rd (considering Astros play-in game)
2000: Seattle – 3rd, New York – 4th
2001: Oakland – 2nd, St. Louis – 2nd
2002: Anaheim – 3rd, San Francisco – 4th
2003: Boston – 3rd, Florida – 3rd
2004: Boston – 2nd, Houston – 4th
2005: Boston – 3 way tie for 2nd, Houston – 3rd
2006: Detroit – 3rd, Los Angeles – 3rd
2007: New York – Tied for 3rd, Colorado – Tied for 2nd
2008: Boston – 3rd, Milwaukee – 3rd
2009: Boston – 3rd, Colorado – 3rd

So, seven times out of thirty teams, that team has actually been the “worst” team to make the playoffs. The only ones to win the series were the 2000 Yankees. The 2002 Giants are the only other 4th place wild card team to make the series.
I’m curious to expand this to rank all of the teams 1st-4th according to regular season record, then see how those 4th best teams shake out.
In any case, I’d say the problem is not with wild cards winning in the playoffs, the problem is with weak division winners.

Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.

by ShadowPenguin on Mar 16, 2010 5:50 PM MDT reply actions  

All it means to me is that.....

most teams are in a division based on their geography.
The simple solution is 15 teams in the AL. and 15 in the NL. Balanced schedule with interleague play.
The top four teams in each league go to the play offs . 1 seed plays 4 seed and 2 plays 3.

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by walkoff59 on Mar 16, 2010 6:09 PM MDT reply actions  

To me, there's a difference between Wild Card winners and Division winners

that can become apparent late in the season. More often than not, division winners have their title wrapped up weeks before the end of the season. To win the Wild Card, however, you usually have to stay competitive right up until game #162. This isn’t always the case, but I do believe there is something to be said for the team that is carrying momentum into the playoffs. Baseball is a game about streaks and momentum, and to have just come off of a weekend fighting for your playoff lives will give you an edge over an opponent who is coming off of essentially two weeks vacation.

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Is it baseball yet?

by oo_nrb on Mar 16, 2010 7:29 PM MDT reply actions  

rest vs rust however

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by Andrew Martin on Mar 16, 2010 9:36 PM MDT up reply actions  

It's silly trying to figure out who's "best" in any case

1) just let the Yanks contest the WS and have the other 29 teams battle out the other spot

2) let’s say Jeter and Rodriguez smash into each other fielding a popup fly and Sabathia is also injured in the melee. The Yanks only manage 88 wins and are pipped by the Sox to the AL East, having to settle for the wild card. The poorly triumvirate all recover for the playoffs and, with their awesome team intact, they win the world series. The best team wins, right? So you’re happy?

by biondino on Mar 17, 2010 5:32 AM MDT reply actions  

I still don't like the wild card...

  I am old enough to remember before division play. Yes there were a lot of years when the pennant was decided a month in advance. The best teams went to the dance.

  For all the excitement provided by that swashbuckling move at the close; I’d still rather see some one who Won something. I’d rather have sixteen teams in each league and four divisions. Make one the small market division to make it fair. That way you don’t have the Yanks & Boso(x) all the time. One or the other.

by Oldfoagie on Mar 17, 2010 11:38 PM MDT reply actions  

I dunno, I think this is much ado about nothing really

I tend to think most players don’t care how they make the playoffs, as long as they do. If you win the division, you get homefield advantage and you get the benefit of extra days of rest. Does the rest help or hurt…hard to say.

If the concern is that the WC gets hot at the right time, like the Rox in 07 and they took advantage of it through a short division series, then lengthen the division series to 7 games and remove the number of days off so everything is done by the end October to eliminate most weather issues and the seeming problem of rust, etc.

Troy Tulowitzki - Best SS in the MLB - 2010 MVP
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PS Let's win the NL West in 2010, shall we?

by SDcat09 on Mar 18, 2010 3:11 AM MDT reply actions  

lengthen the division series to 7 games and remove the number of days off so everything is done by the end October

I most definitely agree with this!

Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.

by ShadowPenguin on Mar 19, 2010 9:13 AM MDT up reply actions  

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