Yes, the Padres are still in the division: I guess we will mention them

by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 30, 2010 12:00 PM MDT in NL West Report

Quick trivia: How many MLB teams lost less games last September than the San Diego Padres? Answer: ZERO.

The Rockies were on fire in September, the Yankees naturally had a solid month, and the Braves gave us a scare, but the nine losses the Padres had was tied for the fewest in the majors. What does this mean? Potentially nothing. Potentially...potential?

Let's face it. Unless the Rockies catch a Padre Pandemic in 2010, similar to the Dodger Drought of 09 and Diamondback Disease of 08, San Diego is of no consequence to Rockies fans. If the Padres are anywhere near the Rockies in the standings come September, the problem won't be with Bud Black's club.

As it stands, I expect the Padres to be better overall, yet have fewer than the 75 wins they managed in 2009. For the record, those 75 wins were 8 wins better than their Pythagorean win percentage. The improvement from their youth may be masked by regression in that area.

As I'm sure it does for many Rowbots, it bothers me when people assume the Rockies have a fantastic offense and terrible pitching based on outdated reputation. Don't make the inverse mistake with the Padres. They had a 96 OPS+ last year, 8th in the NL and above the league average of 94. Meanwhile, their pitching put up an 85 ERA+, better than only two teams in the NL. This team's strength is hitting.

Exhibit A: Jon Garland is San Diego's Opening Day starter. The same vanilla Jon Garland who was last place Arizona's fourth starter last year. Scary. I'll run through their roster after the jump.

The following personnel are accompanied by their CHONE projections for WAR and wRC+ or FIP. Pitcher WAR is from Fangraphs' Fans.

Lineup:

Tony Gwynn, Jr - CF: 2.1, 91

David Eckstein - 2B: 0.4, 80

Adrian Gonzalez - 1B: 4.2, 138

Chase Headley - 3B: 2.6, 108

Kyle Blanks - LF: 1.5, 119

Will Venable - RF: 1.1, 93

Nick Hundley - C: 0.8, 93

Everth Cabrera - SS: 1.3, 98

Essentially, only Eckstein is notably below average from that starting lineup. It isn't half bad, and a few of those players (Blanks, Venable and Headley in particular) could far surpass those projections.

Bench:

Scott Hairston - OF: 1.1, 102

Matt Stairs - OF/PH: -1.3, 78

Yorvit Torrealba - C: 0.6, 72

Jerry Hairston, Jr. - IF/U: 0.2, 83

Oscar Salazar - IF/U: 0.9, 113

Scott Hairston was signed as insurance for the youngsters in the outfield. He would start if Adrian Gonzalez is traded, and may work into a 4-man platoon in the outfield. Otherwise, the bench is a sorry bunch. The CHONE projections are liberal with PAs, and thus, positive WAR. The entire bench is projected to be worth about as much as Jason Giambi. San Diego also re-signed Josh Barfield (who they originally traded for the departed Kevin Kouzmanoff) - he will start at AAA and could push into the big club, as his position is the lone truly weak offensive spot in the lineup. That's if Matt Antonelli doesn't finally live up the the hopes of Padre fans.

Rotation:

Jon Garland - 2.3, 4.21

Chris Young - 1.4, 4.50

Kevin Correia - 3.2, 4.05

Clayton Richard - 1.5?, 4.08

Mat Latos - 1.8. 3.98

For a team that is building through a youth movement, there isn't a lot of youth in that rotation. Only Richard and Latos could potentially surprise with a great season, though Latos showed signs of incredible ability last year. Wade LeBlanc and Tim Stauffer could get a few starts as well, though the team is listening to offers on Stauffer.

Bullpen:

Heath Bell - 2.0, 3.05

Luke Gregerson - 3.27

Mike Adams - 3.16

Edward Mujica - 3.87

Joe Thatcher - 3.08

Adam Russell - 4.22

Sean Gallagher - 3.91

That's a pretty underrated bullpen right there, provided the 2009 seasons from Gregerson, Adams and Mujica are indicators of the future rather than flukes. Other potential players in the bullpen would be Aaron Poreda, Ernesto Frieri, Radhames Liz, Cesar Ramos, Craig Italiano, Cesar Carillo, Steve Garrison, Luis Perdomo and Ryan Webb.

There's a reason the Padres haven't gotten much attention from Purple Row this offseason. Whereas I was always obsessed with the least talented team in the NL West in previous years (to guage our chances of getting out of the basement), they just don't matter this year. The offense is solid if not spectacular, the rotation is boring but has modest chances for improvement at the back end, and the bullpen is stout. But they won't contend.

Let's just not catch that Padre Pandemic, yeah?

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Comments

Good post

Not a terrible team with definite young talent, but probably won’t contend for a playoff spot this year.

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by Hollidayrain on Mar 30, 2010 12:38 PM MDT reply actions

Frickin' Scott Hairston.

Hate that guy.

by Shoemaker on Mar 30, 2010 12:44 PM MDT reply actions

With a Passion

but not as much as I hate Jorge Julio. My heart is still trying to recover from that home run that almost blew the playoff birth in 07

Clem Johnson? That skin bag wouldn't have lasted one pitch in the old Robot Leagues! Now Wireless Joe Jackson, there was a blern hitting machine!

by KDub1988 on Mar 30, 2010 12:47 PM MDT up reply actions

without the homerun, we don't have the come back.

But still, it sucked to watch at the time.

The best things in life are Tulo dingers, Ubaldo strikeouts, and Iannetta BBs.

by squalene203 on Mar 30, 2010 12:49 PM MDT up reply actions

ugh i know

TULO = 2010 MVP!

Troy Tulowitzki: "When people think of the Rockies, I want them to think of a winning organization."

LETS GO WINGS!

by TuLoRocks2008 on Mar 30, 2010 3:41 PM MDT up reply actions

Would Everth Cabrera

be our second baseman right now? Or is that a “right place, right time” situation, and that opportunity never would have come with the Rockies?

by deacs on Mar 30, 2010 1:37 PM MDT reply actions

im quite sure he wouldnt have been given the chance

He went from A ball straight to an average major league bat. No one saw that coming. We didn’t really give Gomez or even Nelson a chance to supplant Barmes this spring.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 30, 2010 1:59 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

Even if he stayed on the roster my guess is that he would have replaced Q at best.

"Because I am a Rockie." - Todd

Countdown 2010:
Opening Day @ Milwaukee | Home Opener vs San Diego

by phishbate on Mar 30, 2010 2:02 PM MDT up reply actions

Is that equal parts front office

equal parts very good depth? Or, does it say something specific about the organization’s evaluation?

by deacs on Mar 30, 2010 2:10 PM MDT up reply actions

Losing him was basically the downside to the organization's depth.

I’m sure the FO would have loved to keep him in the system but couldn’t afford to keep him on the roster. I doubt the Padres even expected him to breakout as well as he did.

"Because I am a Rockie." - Todd

Countdown 2010:
Opening Day @ Milwaukee | Home Opener vs San Diego

by phishbate on Mar 30, 2010 2:14 PM MDT up reply actions

Nope.

He’d still be behind Young, Nelson, Gomez, and many others.

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by Greg Stanwood on Mar 30, 2010 5:12 PM MDT up reply actions

Great overview.

Just for curiosity’s sake, do you know if those CHONE projections take petco into account?

"Because I am a Rockie." - Todd

Countdown 2010:
Opening Day @ Milwaukee | Home Opener vs San Diego

by phishbate on Mar 30, 2010 2:04 PM MDT reply actions

I know for sure that the wRC+ values are park adjusted

and I’m 90% sure the WAR is as well. So yes.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 30, 2010 7:20 PM MDT up reply actions

The Padres will be bad this season...

that said…I don’t think they are going to be as bad as everyone thinks. That Mat Latos kid was impressive and Richard, one of the guys that they got for Jake Peavy has potential as well. Honestly, I could see them winning 74 or 75 games, which is about 8-10 more than what the experts are predicting.

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by Sandlotkid8 on Mar 30, 2010 2:25 PM MDT reply actions

I think they better 75 wins

They will all come out of LA and SF’s higher win totals from last year. The Padres are a young team on the come-up. They played much better when Bud Black (SDSU!) put the kids in. He’ll start ‘em from opening day this year. I admit I’m a fan but I see the Pads being better than expected (maybe 80-81 wins) this year. Depends on them keeping Adrian.

by Since1993 on Mar 30, 2010 7:09 PM MDT reply actions

This was a good read ATF

You should add a poll asking if the Pads will finish last. While I think they are the worst team in the division, I don’t think they are so far behind that they can’t catch a team that might have a disastrous seaon.

"If you mess with us, we are going to answer back." - Troy Tulowitzki

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 30, 2010 7:35 PM MDT reply actions