Friday Rockpile: Baseball's back and the Rockies may just be very good at it
by Russ Oates on Mar 5, 2010 7:21 AM MST
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PrintTwitter / Jon Heyman: #rockies looked great toda ...
"#rockies looked great today. seth smith can hit!"
Seth Smith has super debut - The Denver Post
Is Seth Smith Superman? If he can repeat yesterday's performance more often during the regular season, he may just be. However, at the end of the day all Seth wants to do is go home and play with his daughter, Sienna.
Diamondbacks 1, Rockies 11: Well, that sucked... - AZ Snakepit
Yes, that did suck D'Back fans, but it wasn't the end of the Rockies' reign of terror over you in 2010.
Tulowitzki already in the groove at spring training - The Denver Post
"I told him [Matt Holliday] this offseason has been different than any other because I am not messing with my stance. I finally understand my swing," Tulowitzki recalled. "He said, 'Isn't that a great feeling?' "
Tulo's also looking to reach the 30 stolen base plateau. Join that 30-30 club this season, Troy!
A Quick Investigation into the Aerodynamic Drag on Fly Balls at Coors - Purple Row
If you haven't already checked it out, read realmenwearpurple's FanPost on aerodynamic drag on fly balls at Coors.
Baseball Prospectus | Future Shock: Top 101 Prospects
BP's Kevin Goldstein unveiled his top 101 prospects the other day. Christian Friedrich and Tyler Matzek check in at 22 and 23, respectively.
Baseball Prospectus | Squawking Baseball: LA Story (Subscribers only)
Shawn Hoffman tackles those reports out of LA that the dailies seem to be taking seriously: the Dodgers are going to be extremely profitable in 2018, but will spend less on payroll. Basically, those documents that demonstrate this are more than likely a sales tool for potential investors.
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Comments
I realize Smith is quiet and all about unicorns. But Super Ma'am?! Hmm
I was going to post Heyman’s tweet if you didn’t.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 5, 2010 7:32 AM MST reply actions
EY2 tweet 2 hours ago he was on the bus..
Heading for the game. I wonder if they ever sing wheels on the bus?
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Anyone know when the Rox are on MLB Network's 30 Clubs in 30 Days?
Afraid I’m gonna miss it,and wanna set the DVR….
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Their show doesn't come on until March 26th at 7
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 8:13 AM MST up reply actions
Don't forget everyone, both games today will have coverage on MLB.com today.
See my sig for details. Sadly, I will not be able to follow either game except with GameDay.
Upcoming Rockies Coverage
3/5: @ Angels - MLBTV (FSNWest)
3/5: @ Giants - MLB.com GameDay Audio Original
3/6: Brewers - KOA Radio
3/7: @ Diamondbacks - GameDay Audio (KTAR)
3/7: Diamondbacks - KOA Radio
I feel lazy even asking this
But could you include start times in your sig? It’s a really useful resource!
I can, but I should point out that until the time change, all the games start just after 1:00 MST at either 1:05 or 1:10.
But yeah, I’ll add the times.
Upcoming Rockies Coverage
3/5: @ Angels - MLBTV (FSNWest)
3/5: @ Giants - MLB.com GameDay Audio Original
3/6: Brewers - KOA Radio
3/7: @ Diamondbacks - GameDay Audio (KTAR)
3/7: Diamondbacks - KOA Radio
by Greg Stanwood on Mar 5, 2010 8:37 AM MST up reply actions
Added
Upcoming Rockies Coverage
3/5: @ Angels 1:05 PM MST - MLBTV (FSNWest)
3/5: @ Giants 1:05 PM MST - MLB.com GameDay Audio Original
3/6: Brewers 1:10 PM MST - KOA Radio
3/7: @ Diamondbacks 1:05 PM MST - GameDay Audio (KTAR)
3/7: Diamondbacks 1:10 PM MST - KOA Radio
by Greg Stanwood on Mar 5, 2010 8:39 AM MST up reply actions
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 8:58 AM MST up reply actions 3 recs
Pa-raise the Lawd.
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
Brandon Webb still not feeling it
If he can’t go, where does that leave the Dbacks window?
Iron Maiden? Excellent!
3rd to 4th instead of 1st to 4th?
Upcoming Rockies Coverage
3/5: @ Angels 1:05 PM MST - MLBTV (FSNWest)
3/5: @ Giants 1:05 PM MST - MLB.com GameDay Audio Original
3/6: Brewers 1:10 PM MST - KOA Radio
3/7: @ Diamondbacks 1:05 PM MST - GameDay Audio (KTAR)
3/7: Diamondbacks 1:10 PM MST - KOA Radio
by Greg Stanwood on Mar 5, 2010 9:02 AM MST up reply actions
Last is also a possibility
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 9:06 AM MST up reply actions
I just don't see them finishing last,
The Padres are decent, but Haren/Jackson/Kennedy/Buckner/R. Lopez still beats Young/Garland/Correia/Latos/whoever and the D-backs lineup has more weapons. The Padres would need quite a bit of luck to finish out of the basement this year. Of course, I thought that last season too, and that’s exactly what happened, so you probably shouldn’t take my word for it.
Oh I agree last is unlikely even without Webb
I just think it becomes a possibility. I think we have had this discussion before but I don’t think the DBacks are that good.
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 9:26 AM MST up reply actions
esp when Young has another injury 2 months in
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 10:50 AM MST up reply actions
less of a threat, certainly
They’re still a dangerous team without Webb. I’m sticking to my second place prediction for them.
Can I laugh
when the Padres finish second behind the Rockies?
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
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Last year they won 70 games without Webb
Where are they going to get 15-20 more wins from?
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 9:24 AM MST up reply actions
This is lazy analysis
Last year’s record may not have much bearing on the true talent level of the team. As a Rockies fan who went through 2008 and 2009, you should know this. In the Diamondbacks case, you have a pretty extreme example of a team underperforming their talent level by a considerable amount last season.
and my reply is probably too harsh
It’s just an easy trap to fall into, looking into the previous season’s records and automatically assuming that’s where the team is at the end of the year. It was really frustrating to me heading into last season when pundits would make that mistake about the Rockies (including Jim at the Snakepit, so maybe turnabout’s fair play that some of us here are doing it with the D-backs), so it’s still frustrating to me to see it happening here, even if it’s not with our team.
No it was a fair response and I should have explained it more
Part of my thinking with this was that I don’t think they were even a 90 win team to begin with. Even though they won 90 games in 2007 they were outscored by 20 runs throughout the 162 season so they really overachieved three years ago. I think 2008 was also a bit deceiving. Despite leading the division for most of the 2008 season they only finished with 82 wins (even with a healthy Webb and Haren) and benifitted from a weak NL west.
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 9:45 AM MST up reply actions
I don't believe they were ever a 90 win team, either.
I think the last three years they’ve been pretty much the sum of their records, which is right around .500, maybe a tad below. So I guess what I’m saying is that I saw them as about a .500 team last year that’s improved a major weakness with their lineup (the OBP as I explain below) and gotten a little better in the rotation by adding both Jackson and Kennedy at the expense of Scherzer. Completely without Webb, I think they drop back to just above .500, whereas with him healthy, I see them as right around an 85 win team. With good luck they could go over, with bad luck, they could go below.
Here's my two main problems with the DBacks
1) They don’t have enough OBP in their lineup. Last year Ryan Roberts led the team with a .367 OBP.
2) They have too many question in their rotation. After Haren, ee don’t lknow how Webb will come back, guys like Kennedy and Buckner have shown me nothing yet at the major league level, and R. Lopez just isn’t that good. I know they brought in Jackson too but I just don’t think it’s enough.
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 9:38 AM MST up reply actions
These are decent points, but are looking at a team's weaknesses only
without giving enough consideration to their strengths, and in the case of your first point, you seem to also be missing the gains that Arizona has made in that OBP category during the off-season by adding LaRoche, Johnson and in a sense, Conor Jackson, to the lineup. Last season they had four positions with above league average OBP: 2B, RF, 3B, and C with Montero, this year they look likely to have six or seven if Drew bounces back to his projections and Jackson’s healthy. Really the only bad OBP player they have left in the lineup is Chris Young.
As for their rotation, I don’t think anything I can say will move you from that opinion, since we’re both working on conjecture here and your well grounded in your doubt. I’ll just leave it that I’m more sanguine about their chances of being an above average staff as long as they don’t have any further injuries, and that I do believe Webb will be back and positively contributing at some point this season.
I don't think they have improved their OBP problem at all
Nobody you mention has a really eye popping OBP and Johnson actually has a worse OBP than Roberts (.367) or Lopez (.364) put up last year.
LaRoche .343 career OBP (.357 last year)
Johnson .346 career OBP (.303 last year)
Jackson .361 career OBP (a little better but like Webb we don’t know what he’s going to do this year)
While they did have four positions last season with above average OBP they were all only a little above average and not enough to outweigh the bad OBP positions. Last season they had a team OBP of .324 and that is just not godd enough (especially when you play in a park that favors the offense like Chase Field).
Another problem I think the Dbacks might run into is that Reynolds probably won’t hit as many HR’s as he did last year. He will still be good but I think 44 HR’s is a little unrealistic to expect again.
I think you hit the nail on the head as far as our rotation disagreement goes. There are a lot of unknows with it and we both just have very different expectations for those unknowns.
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 12:27 PM MST up reply actions
Seth Smith sired Sienna Smith?
Alliteration: Always Annoying.
"I clearly miscalculated how popular it would be to show Calvin urinating on a Ford logo"--Bill Watterson
by frightened inmate #2 on Mar 5, 2010 9:02 AM MST reply actions
YOU GOT A PROBLEM WITH MY USERNAME? :-)
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 9:08 AM MST up reply actions
Rhode Island is not an island
there are no Rockies in the state
fan is the only word not capitalized
there are no spaces
Rox is spelled incorrectly
Iron Maiden? Excellent!
HOW DARE YOU
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 9:18 AM MST up reply actions
Good catch
I should have noticed that
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." - George F. Will
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 12:43 PM MST up reply actions
I missed the radio call (if there even was one) --
but if so, how was the new guy?
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
Fairly good
He seemed a bit uncomfortable with the two-man construction at times after doing Nuggets games by himself for nearly two decades. The passing of the torch between Corrigan and Schemmel wasn’t always in tune. He repeated Morales’ career batting average against vs lefties at least twice, had a few hollow statements, and talks faster than most baseball broadcasters. But all in all, he was good, and I’m sure he’ll be great once I stop thinking he’s about to make a 3pt call.
Unfortunately, Corrigan was doing play by play during the Smith dinger, so I didn’t get to hear a Schemmel home run call of JUMANJI or whatever he’ll do.
I also found it humorous that he pointed out on multiple occasions how quiet the Rockies clubhouse is. Too used to the hip hop culture.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 5, 2010 9:14 AM MST up reply actions
MLB = no guns in the locker room.
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So Chuck Knoblauch had a stats problem?
Not a confidence one?
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Wow I'm not sure how this reply got here..
DROID fail
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by Charlie77 on Mar 5, 2010 12:34 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Nice, thanks.
Yeah, I’m sure the flow will come, and the HR call will be interesting. I wonder if that’s keeping him up at night …
And I suppose we’re out a " … Rockies winner." game ender, though it shall live forever in our hearts (and game threads).
"Don't tell me about the world. Not today. It's springtime and they're knocking baseballs around fields where the grass is damp and green in the morning and the kids are trying to hit the curve ball." -Pete Hamill
Betancourt
suffering from shoulder tightness.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
I SAID BE QUIET
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
yes you should
know why?
BECAUSE I HAZ A BANHAMMER
OH YES I DO
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
you know the saying
speak softly and carry a large banhammer
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
Fiddlesticks
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
That would actually be hilarious
if everyone just wanted biondino banned but just couldnt do a thing about it
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Start insulting cricket and tea and bicycling
in his general direction?
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
he might stick around for vengeance then...
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Have you heard about the human-flesh-searches in China?
This NYT article about them is fascinating. And also demonstrates the potential power of my English wrath.
Whoda thunk
I’d ever read about human-flesh searches on the internet and it not be about porn…
But for real, that was one of the more interesting things I’ve read in a while. I remember talking with my roommate about how in middle eastern countries, they have a ton of difficulty censoring facebook and twitter and that’s how people can communicate things, and we were laughing if one day when we look back, twitter will have played a role in altering the political systems of those countries…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Yes, it does.
How do you think we get rid of those spammers from China?
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
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/tries to ban biondino
Whoops, maybe it works just in China and the US.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
Ditto
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
Don't worry
I’m sure it’s in the name of, um, science.
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
Name of progress.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
oye... I'm really glad Morales is looking good so far.
Our bullpen’s starting to scare me a bit. I wonder if the team pushes Rex Brothers to Tulsa, we might need to expedite the relief talent pipeline.
well, we can tell pretty much diddlysquat about Franklin
who can look world-beating one day and then the world can beat him the next day.
but this funny business with the shoulders of Street and RafBet, I do not like one bit, Sam I am.
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
true enough, but as long as he holds off that beat-down from the world day, I can dream it won't happen, can't I?
Morales is and always has been the type of pitcher that has corners to turn, I guess I’m just hoping that he’s close to the “reaching his potential” destination.
This is the big issue with the Rockies pen should we be sans Street and Betancourt. Between Morales, Corpas, Weathers and Brothers we’ve got enough late inning talent to do well if they live up to what they’ve shown in the past, and with Buchholz, Matt Reynolds and Alburquerque, we have middle relief talent to replace them, we just don’t have any idea about how consistent or MLB ready any of this talent will be from day to day.
Not a good situation to be in, and it’s making O’Dowd look bad for signing those two to multi-year deals this winter.
Isn't it far too early in the spring to start regretting the Street and Betancourt signings?
Iron Maiden? Excellent!
YES
Or, at least you can’t change your mind from the time they were signed. If you were against it like Jeff from the start fine, but inevitable soreness can’t make you leery already
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 5, 2010 10:42 AM MST up reply actions
I think everyone's just clucking a little because
Street and Betancourt would be such massive pieces to lose.
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
Well of course
It makes me nervous too, but not enough to change my stance on their contracts
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 5, 2010 10:44 AM MST up reply actions
Oh me neither
I’m just saying there will probably be more overreaction involved with your closer and ace setup guy.
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
I'm not changing my stance either,
At the same time, I don’t want to ignore the obvious. You know Denver Post commenters will be all over this, and there’s a possibility that they could be justified this time.
Well, it's too early to say it makes O'Dowd look bad
especially if you didn’t think O’Dowd looked bad for signing them at the time
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 5, 2010 10:52 AM MST up reply actions
Well, I'm of the opinion that they really actually wouldn't be huge pieces to lose...due to chaining I'd say we lose .5-2 WAR from not having them.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
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If you say so
I disagree. A good closer is pretty big in my book. Even if all he does is pitch one inning, yadda yadda.
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
It really is quite an overrated role but I can see how a safety blanket is important to fans/coach.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
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How about players?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 5, 2010 10:54 AM MST up reply actions
They still will have to play defense to get the three outs. I don't see how it tangibly affects their performance in any way.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
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“Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical.”
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 5, 2010 10:57 AM MST up reply actions
I'm pretty sure perceived "lockdownitude"
has the ability to breed confidence in players
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 10:58 AM MST up reply actions
Yeah
How do you feel going out there that the guy’s going to get the job done with no bullshit, or that he’s going to monkey and dink around?
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
If he is going to act like a real monkey . . . yes.
"Shall it be peace, or a sword?" - Excised line from Lincoln's First Inaugural Address
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
and confidence manifests itself in actual improved production how?
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
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well, if only the game was played by computers
I think it can make a pretty big difference. Guys talk all the time about how much it helped when they got their heads straightened out.
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
oh you did NOT drop the "game played by computers"
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:47 AM MST up reply actions
couldn't resist
sorry
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
I will be better next time
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
you'd better
it’s such a demeaning thing to say to people who do legitimate work trying to study baseball. Not saying that just to you, but to anyone who thinks that’s just the most clever way to “get at” stats people
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:58 AM MST up reply actions
I have all the respect in the world for stats guys
I’m just one of those annoying people who think sometimes they don’t tell the whole story.
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
well I didn't mean to say "lol silver is dum"
because I will freely admit that there are unquantifiable things.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 12:01 PM MST up reply actions
well that's good
otherwise we’d REALLY have to throw down
but like I said, I really wasn’t attempting to get into an argument here anyway. I don’t like arguing… especially with people on the Internet. it’s so cliche.
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
Especially when you're wrong :p
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
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OH now tiger
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
Whateva, whateva, I do what I want.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
Is that you Redhawk?
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
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it might've been BroJB
although he would’ve smiled and made friends afterwards
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:54 AM MST up reply actions
nope
but I think it’s of at least some value in this case
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
Agree to disagree.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
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really not trying to pick a fight here BTW
I will personally say that confidence helps ME, but hey.
I can haz NL West title?
Thanks to Muzia for kickass avatar of my undying love Greg Reynolds
....shutup
you seriously don't think confidence has a bearing on how humans perform tasks?
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:45 AM MST up reply actions
Not in playing defense for one inning, not measurably, no.
Yes, in other situations the effect is more measurable, but I think that the “confidence” factor is a skill that demands a premium far higher than the benefit it provides.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
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extend that over 2 or 3 innings of bullpen work then
same thing?
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:54 AM MST up reply actions
Still not really a real performance boost IMO...especially on defense.
Peace of mind/confidence helps a bunch more when players are batting than it does when they are in the field.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
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ok let's flip it around then
what about the effect on opposing batters knowing that they’re facing a lockdown closer?
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:59 AM MST up reply actions
Yes, that would be more measurable, I guess.
But those guys are still paid a premium for their “intimidation” that outstrips its actual value. Maybe five-ten guys in the league could call themselves a lockdown closer and they are also very well compensated for it.
I’d argue that Street isn’t one of those guys from an intimidation/lockdown standpoint, at least from an opposing player’s POV. His stuff just isn’t filthy/fast enough (though he is ridiculously effective).
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Well I guess the thing here is
if the intimidation/getting into the head thing works, how is it not part of the value? Impossible to quantify, yeah, but what about someone facing, say, Mariano Rivera? Aside from the fact that he’s still good, there’s that other X factor.
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That's what I was getting at in my post...
there is an effect, but I’m not sure if it is worth the $5-7 million extra that these elite closers are being paid above the average late game reliever.
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Well how much baseball players are paid
is a whole nother argument anyway.
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well, maybe it switches to overconfidence when street is pitching
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 12:07 PM MST up reply actions
what
you aren’t scared of the babyface?
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Wearing lucky underwear may not make a statistical difference
it may screw with a player’s head if he thinks that it does
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excellent.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:08 AM MST up reply actions
I think they're undervalued by WAR
Well, not technically, but based on group psychology, their contribution to a team is more valuable with greater consistency, which WAR doesn’t really factor. I’d rather have a Brian Fuentes or LaTroy Hawkins than a Bob Howry, despite them being similarly valued according to WAR.
I don't want to get into an argument about stats
but give me a guy who can get three quick outs ANY day over a guy who will probably get three outs but will reliably give you heart failure while doing it.
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I agree, but in this case, I'd rather have the regular heart failure with the win
than the half three quick outs, half game losing HR.
Kind of what like Jason Kendall tried to do to us at that Brewers game
the one CDI won with the walkoff.
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It's funny you should bring that game up,
I was just looking at the FanGraph chart of it this morning while working on another article/project.
I have rarely been in more disbelief at a turn of events
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And generally if you have the three quick outs part down
game-losing HRs are going to be the exception rather than the rule.
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In Howry's case, they seemed to be semi-regular occurrences in 2009
It’s why Giants fans weren’t sorry to see him go despite him being a positive contributor. It’s why many Rockies fans don’t like the idea of Morales as closer, despite as many quick saves/innings in his resume as he had blown chances. It’s why we’re so down on Rincon despite him coming through with stranded runners every time in 2009. I really believe that fans and therefore teams’ bottom lines are severely impacted by a reliever’s consistency, which adds value to some beyond WAR, while taking it from others.
this is somewhat key
a starter may have bad innings, but there’s time for it to all even out, so the WAR concept more or less makes sense.
A reliever has a bad inning, that might cost the game every time, because there is often so little time to recover from it. Yes, over the course of the season, it sort of evens out, but not over the course of a game.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:12 AM MST up reply actions 2 recs
rec'd
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Good point, but I still tend to take the macro POV on this issue...
instead of looking at it on a by-game basis.
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and for most situations, I agree with you
it’s the pinch-hitters and relief pitchers that kind of throw macro stats out the window, given the irregularity of their work.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:46 AM MST up reply actions
Obviously having good relievers does provide value to a team...
just not at the price that teams are paying now for those services. “Expert” pinch-hitters/feared bench bats are in the same boat.
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I think there are probably cases of sabrmetrics missing the trees for the forest
by always taking the macro view. For instance, I think we have to leave open the possibility that Seth Smith might actually be a PH redwood in a forest of dwarf pines.
In the case of closers, I don’t know if the statistical valuation is correct when so many well run organizations such as Boston and Tampa Bay and a couple of others have joined in compensating them at the market rate rather than at a strict stat value rate. To me, it’s a glaring flag that the market has picked up on a value that our fan available statistics haven’t yet caught up to. I suspect it’s in the revenue value of a late loss, but that’s just a guess.
WINZ
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:08 AM MST up reply actions
don't worry
they made a killing in the Fuentes/Jose Mesa/Jose Jimenez days
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:11 AM MST up reply actions
All Star
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by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 5, 2010 11:12 AM MST up reply actions
amongst other things
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:13 AM MST up reply actions
It's a matter of degree,
I’m just saying that this does begin to cast a shadow of doubt. It’s not eclipsing things certainly, and if a couple of weeks from now and both are fine, we all breathe a sigh of relief, but you can’t ignore that at the very least there’s an elephant knocking on the door if it’s not necessarily in the room yet.
No one thought they would be 100% healthy throughout their contract
These are things you weigh when offering and analyzing the deal in the first place
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by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 5, 2010 10:46 AM MST up reply actions
About to go medieval
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No one can predict injuries
but I am worried. Hopefully this is old news by next week.
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I'd also throw in
Craig Baker.
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Relievers are overpaid, fungible, variable, blah blah blah...
you know where I stand on this issue.
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Soo....
you DO support the Juan Rincon for Closer idea?
…
….
;)
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Hey now
I wasn’t saying I supported it wise guy.
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I support high-upside arms that have been squeezed from starter consideration in the bullpen.
I’d like a good cheap bullpen in the near future of Buchholz (closer), Morales (if he’s not starting, which he should be), Daley, Deduno, Corpas, Weathers, and Flores/cheap lefty
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Who is that guy?
and why do we want to remember him?
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The link is titled "The can't-miss prospect who missed"
Which is a bit cruel – he had a few decent seasons.
Well
there have been can’t miss prospects who missed ever since baseball was invented.
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Except
for the guy who was actually named Can’t Miss Prospect. He came onto the baseball scene shortly after 8 July 1947 and then disappeared a few years later. He hit 61 homers in his first full season, but for some reason no one ever talks about him.
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because he's a great guy
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:10 AM MST up reply actions
yeah I know
that was sort of mean, he did his best for us
but I would prefer that he not manage my favorite baseball team again
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Etkin just posted an update
Reynolds’ MRI negative, Street’s shoulder improving
Iron Maiden? Excellent!
Greg Reynolds:
still feeling lucky
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He's due for a surge of luck after the absence of it for the rest of his..... career so far.
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by Greg Stanwood on Mar 5, 2010 11:30 AM MST up reply actions
yes
yes indeed
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Did he get those pics uou sent him?
Is that why he’s feeling lucky?
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by Charlie77 on Mar 5, 2010 12:23 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
In one sense he should be
He has made some serious deposits at the luck bank. A lot of withdrawals should b coming.
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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 12:40 PM MST up reply actions
What stats do we have to calculate...
when a guy is “due”?
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Look out Dodgers...Purple objects in mirror are closer than they appear.
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by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 7, 2010 8:05 PM MST up reply actions
Wha?
They found his thyroid gland had moved itself to his hamstring.
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LOLmets
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poor bastard
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 11:54 AM MST up reply actions
The same issue I have, actually.
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by Greg Stanwood on Mar 5, 2010 11:54 AM MST up reply actions
Thyroid.
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by Greg Stanwood on Mar 5, 2010 12:16 PM MST up reply actions
Not to make fun at all of a serious issue...
…but could this have really happened to any team other than the Mets?
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Possibly the Cubs for long-term history
but for short-term history, gotta be the Mets.
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Both.
It fluctuates.
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by Greg Stanwood on Mar 5, 2010 12:34 PM MST up reply actions
Not too bad, just a pill every morning
Difficult to balance, though.
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by Greg Stanwood on Mar 5, 2010 12:46 PM MST up reply actions
This wouldn't be funny if it wasn't the Mets
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by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 5, 2010 12:42 PM MST up reply actions
Gamethread(s) today?
With split-squad games, is it going to be 2 games in 1 string, or 2 strings?
I vote for the former. All bipolar & schizoid Rowbots should be able to handle it.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 5, 2010 4:33 PM MST up reply actions
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