Top 30 PuRPs discussion thread
by Rox Girl on Apr 15, 2010 6:57 PM MDT
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So since we don't have a lot going on tonight and since the MLB team was uhm, lacking today, it's probably a good time to talk prospects in advance of our polling thread.
Just in case you were wondering, after two days of slumping with only three hits in nine AB's, Eliezer Mesa has two already tonight to bring his average back up over that elusive .600 barrier. Jared Clark is also two for two with a home run. I'm guessing Mesa should get some PuRPs love, with his start, while Clark's one of my personal favorites despite being old for the SAL.
Alright, so let's have an prospect roundtable discussion. If people have questions about guys on the farm, this would probably be a great place to get them answered.
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Which pitcher(s) will make the jump to Denver and stay?
Not talking the proverbial cup of coffee but who will be the next and when will he likely get here to stay? I understand Rogers is here now (or maybe he’s not as I write this).
Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything. ~Toby Harrah, 1983
In 2010
I would say that Jhoulys Chacin, Rogers, Matt Reynolds and Christian Friedrich have the best shots of coming up and not going back down, Shane Lindsay, Samuel Deduno and if he gets healthy, Casey Weathers are not far off. Rex Brothers probably isn’t far away, either, so if M. Reynolds drops the ball, he’d be next in line.
If I just have to pick one, it’s Chacin, but Rogers is right there and I think could have been closer to getting a more stable roster spot than we realize in this recent call-up.
Jim Armstrong just reported
that he confirmed that Rogers is being sent down to AAA to make room for Beimel.
http://twitter.com/blakebomber
Not that he'll receive votes, but
does anyone still have a bit of hope for David Christensen?
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i was wondering if you would bring him up
A little hope? Sure….
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 15, 2010 8:40 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Same goes for Isaiah Froneberger.
The smartest man in the room knows he's not the smartest man in the room.
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Sames goes for Dodson
Top reliever in ERA last year at Asheville. Known for groundball outs, went 3 hitless innings the other night with 5 Ks for Modesto. No walks or earned runs in 5 and a third innings this year.
See, that's a good interesting,
I really like what Dodson’s done so far, Froneberger just hasn’t seemed to progress very far.
A little bit
Just like I hold out a bit of hope for Ryan Harvey. These guys (all the tools in the world, but no baseball skills to speak of) will always have some hope that they can put things together and become, you know, actual major leaguers, but it’s pretty slim.
I figure
Parker Frazier drops off the list.
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Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
I don't really think he should have made the list last time it was done.
by Greg Stanwood on Apr 15, 2010 9:38 PM MDT up reply actions
He made Baseball America's list too
so it’s not like Purple Row “missed” here.
Oh, it was just my own claim.
I have no problem if others (who know more than I do) disagree.
by Greg Stanwood on Apr 16, 2010 8:46 AM MDT up reply actions
I think the point of having a "discussion thread" is to get more information
so I’d like more support given when you or other people make a statement like this. There are reasons to exclude Frazier, but there are valid reasons to include him as well (such as his sinker, his relatively young age to his level, his big league pedigree). I’d like to hear your reasoning, as I’m sure other people who are forming their lists would, so they can make more informed decisions.
I would cite his slow rate of advancement.
by Greg Stanwood on Apr 16, 2010 8:45 AM MDT up reply actions
As a relatively raw high school sign, I don't know if we could have really
expected much quicker advancement from Frazier. If he was already in Modesto last year at 20 years old, he would easily be a top ten prospect.
He's not "lagging" so to speak...
I wouldn’t say he hit a wall in Asheville. He just didn’t “earn a pass” out, IMO.
I could point out that maybe it is the surgery makeing me nervous.
by Greg Stanwood on Apr 16, 2010 8:51 AM MDT up reply actions
For the record, I've already made my list (first time submitting it).
It’s open changefor now. Are you going to hold some sort of submission process before the rankings are made (this is the first time I’ve felt qualified to participate)?
There will be a separate
post just for rankings.
The smartest man in the room knows he's not the smartest man in the room.
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
The hardest part for me was definitely the bottom five.
I definitely have rearranged it multiple times.
Beimel
i feel alot better having Beimel ( and 2 leftys) to get out Heyward! That guy is a beast! Fear the bathrobe! Go Rox!
Does Friedrich drop at all
based on his first two starts of the year? I realize he’s not getting pounded like MadBum, but considering I thought it was pretty close between him and Matzek I might be inclined to flip them.
Also maybe someone could talk about some of our lower tier hitting prospects. How excited should be we about a guy like Rike who is pretty old for his level and has disappointed for most of his time in the organization?
And with so many PurPs not even playing yet its really hard to tell who’s advanced or not in the past six months.
Small Sample Size
I think it’s too early in the year to be changing things up that much, except for cases like Eliezer Mesa, where I probably should have had him ranked in the top 30 to begin with and his start to the season makes me realize that.
It's been my experience that pitchers sometimes start off cold
Jhoulys Chacin was like this last year before finishing solidly. I had Matzek ahead of Friedrich to begin with, so that’s not going to change, but I would also suggest a similar point could be made with Matzek. Most of the other high school arms drafted in the 1st round last season have already made their full season debuts, should Matzek’s delay until May drop him in our eyes?
As for Rike, he is repeating at Modesto, which is actually a bigger knock on his status as a prospect than his good start is a credit to it. I think the way to tell advancement is to see the guys who have skipped levels, or moved quickly like Paulsen or Wheeler.
Has there been any reason for Matzek's delay given
beyond “its cold in Asheville”? Has he been meh in intrasquad games or something?
Mostly precautionary
Remember that full-season ball is much, much longer than the high school season, which is as much as Matzek has pitched since he hasn’t pitched professionally. The delay is more to prevent overwork than anything else, I think. He’ll make his debut in May, make roughly 20 starts and pitch around 100 innings, which is still a pretty sizable jump from his high school workload, but not as much as, say, having him pitch 150 innings.
I think it's too small a sample
to really make any judgments yet. Should we ding Tim Wheeler for his 3-for-26 start to the season? I’m not. I rated the prospects in the preseason and, with a few exceptions (mostly where I now realize I probably should have had them in the top 30 to start with), I’m not really making any major changes to the list because of a week’s worth of information. Ultimately, I think if the guy was a top prospect to start the season, a slow start shouldn’t really change anything; likewise, if he was in the 20-30 range preseason, a hot start shouldn’t change things.
As for Matzek, the late signing had something to do with it, but I think the Rockies are being cautious with him more than anything else. That really shouldn’t ding him in our eyes.
I don't know if you're replying to me with the SSS statement
as I don’t think I said anything that different from you, or meant to imply it. I also am not reading anything into the stats thus far save for somebody like Mesa where he’s been so good that it’s clear he’s better than many of us, including the organization, likely, thought.
What I am saying is that Wheeler’s placement at Modesto is far more important to me right now in grading him than his 3 for 26 is, just like Rosario’s placement there was more important than his slow start, as they’re both signs that the organization has seen enough quality from them as players to push them past others that were ahead of them on the depth chart.
I'm really agreeing with you
It’s way too early to make any real judgments about the players based on their stats this season. Now, if Wheeler is still hitting around the Mendoza line at midseason, then I think we can judge based on that; while I generally agree that the organization’s placement of a prospect at a particular level says a lot, at the same time, the organization can be dead wrong sometimes. But it’s far too early to say that. Holcomb and Rosario both started really slow last season after skipping a level, and it looks like Roling and Wheeler are having the same issue this season, but the placement is far more important at this time.
Also my man Rosario
going forward does he hit like he did in Casper or like he did in Modesto? 21 is still very young for a catcher in AA.
So far
he’s hitting somewhere in between the two, which is good. I doubt he’ll hit anything close to what he did in Casper, but something like .280/.330/.420 would be a solid line for a 21-year-old C in the Texas League. I’m interested in particular to see if he makes progress with his plate discipline this season.
1 in 18 AB
is nothing to sneeze at, though again, small sample. If he still has a .278 ISO at the end of the season… geez.
don't forget that Modesto squashes dingerz
So particularly in the case of a young player like Rosario, where his full power potential hasn’t likely been tapped yet, it could lead to an underestimation of what he could bring in that category. Rosario should have solid power for a catcher (really, for any position, he’s going to be a 20+ HR guy in full time duty) at the MLB level, it’s his contact that’s a worry for me.
I thought the Cal league as a whole
was hitter friendly?
It is.
But Modesto, I think, is a fairly neutral ballpark, and that’s where he played half his games. FYI, we deal with the same thing with Tulsa; while the Texas League and the Cal League are hitter friendly, Modesto and Tulsa’s ballparks aren’t particularly hitter-friendly (okay, I don’t know how much Tulsa’s new ballpark will change things.)
Modesto has an HR park factor around 80% even though it's run
environment is neutral. On the whole, the Cal League inflates offense, but it will do so for the teams that play at Visalia, Lancaster and High Desert a lot more than the rest of league, and some places, such as San Jose, Stockton and to some extent Modesto, can be deceiving in that pitchers will probably get overrated coming out and hitters underrated by people who just make a blanket league adjustment.
Right...
Similar to the PCL, which overall inflates offense, but that’s not really the case for the more pitcher-friendly or neutral parks in that league (Tacoma, Portland, Memphis, Nashville.) Making park adjustments is equally important to making league adjustments in many cases.
Guys,
Can anyone tell me which 2009 draftees have played for their MLB clubs so far this season, if any?
Mike Leake (8th overall) is in the Cincinatti Reds' starting rotation
He’s the only one I believe
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
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I think you're right
A draftee from last season already being in the majors is highly unusual. Even the most advanced college players generally need a year or so.
You'll see a few more at the end of May
Teams are trying to delay the arbitration clock of their picks, so both Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen of the Nats will likely be called up at that point, Aaron Crow (Royals) is a good possibility as well.
Actually it was because I saw Mike Leake's name and wondered if he was just one of many.
Thanks guys. Rex Brothers will likely be our first (and second), I’d guess?
Brothers is (are) the safest bet.
Ben Paulsen or Jared Clark might be next in line, but it would take some strange twists for that to happen.
For those interested
I started to put this together the other day in a fanpost and then got side tracked. Hope this offers some value and is more than half accurate. Any assistance in explaining where the ??? are would be great.
Rank Player Pos 09Team 10Team Promoted (+ is one level, ++ is two levels) 2010Age
1 C. Friedrich LHP MOD TUL + 22
2 T. Matzek LHP NA ASH 19
3 J. Chacin RHP COS COS 22
4 E. Rogers RHP COS COS 24
5 E. Young 2B COS COS 25
6 W. Rosario C CMOD TUL + 21
7 H. Gomez SS MOD TUL + 22
8 M. McKenry C TUL COS + 25
9 R. Brothers LHP ASH MOD + 22
10 C. Weathers RHP NA ??? 25
11 C Balcom-Miller RHP CAS TRI? ? 21
12 T. Wheeler OF TRI MOD + 22
13 C. Blackmon OF MOD ??? 23
14 S. Deduno RHP COS COS 26
15 N. Arenado 3B CAS TRI? ? 19
16 Traded
17 C. Nelson SS TUL COS + 24
18 J. Nicasio RHP ASH MOD + 23
19 C. Garner OF TUL COS + 25
20 C. Roe RHP TUL COS + 23
21 K. Roling 1B ASH TUL + 23
22 P. Frazier RHP ASH ? 21
23 D. Cleary OF ASH ? 20
24 D. Holcomb 3B TUL ??? 24
25 S. Lindsay RHP TUL COS + 25
26 M. Reynolds LHP TUL COS + 25
27 M. Zuanich OF ASH ASH 23
28 S. Robinson OF ASH MOD + 21
29 E. Escalona RHP TUL COS + 23
30 B. Paulsen 1B TRI MOD ++ 22
Others Promoted Two Levels
A. Barnes OF CAS ASH + 23
J. Clark 1B CAS ASH + 24
N. Hines OF CAS ASH + 24
E. Mesa OF CAS ASH + 21
A. Nina 2B CAS ASH + 21
R. Scahill RHP TRI MOD + 23
TGFPR!!
oohh SHINY!
I like it, thanks.
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by Charlie77 on Apr 16, 2010 1:24 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Tables
This looked better before I posted it. Any advice on posting tables from Excel??? Thanks
TGFPR!!
It doesn't really work in the comments. You can do it pretty well by doing a FanPost.
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by Jeff Aberle on Apr 16, 2010 12:40 PM MDT up reply actions
Injured..
I think Weathers and Blackmon are both hurt right now, are there any others?
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by Charlie77 on Apr 16, 2010 1:27 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
Lost players
Somewhere along the line, I missed what is the deal with the guys listed below who should be on one of the full season rosters:
Charlie Blackmon
Delta Cleary
Aaron Weatherford
Lars Davis
Jeff Cunningham
Chris Balcolm-Miller
Matthes, Weathers, Nelson, Frazier, Blackmon, Holcomb, Gomez, Cleary and Balcom Miller are all injured.
Matzek and Arenado are inactive, but I’m not sure about Weatherford, Davis and Cunningham.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 16, 2010 1:45 PM MDT up reply actions
Cunningham retired.
The others are in extended Spring Training. Seriously guys, this is what Libra is for. ;) ;)
by Greg Stanwood on Apr 16, 2010 1:45 PM MDT up reply actions
Cunningham
Where is it reported that he retired?
I don't suppose anyone here knows the status of any of the people I've lost track of on Libra?
RHP Alan Deratt
RHP William Harris
RHP Josh Sullivan
RHP Randall Taylor
RHP Tyler Trice
RHP Joey Williamson
C Anthony Aguilera
IF Andrew Goff
IF Carlos Martinez
IF Eider Torres
OF Brad Corley
OF Bronson Sardinha
I assume most of them are either in EST or released, but I’ve seen no press for either of them, and I’d rather not bother Etkin unless necessary.
by Greg Stanwood on Apr 16, 2010 2:00 PM MDT up reply actions
Torres is on the 7-day DL according to BA, DeRatt's definitely in extended
According to a report from his school paper a few days ago. I’ll try and find out more on the others.
You can be on the 7 Day DL without being assigned to a team?
Intriguing.
by Greg Stanwood on Apr 16, 2010 2:29 PM MDT up reply actions
Actually, I didn't think you could,
It was in Matt Eddy’s most recent transaction blog. Gomez, Nelson, Lo Duca, Gobble and a couple of others are also on the DL.
Yeah. Gomez and Nelson I have down already, since I saw their DL transactions on the team transactions pages.
I assume Quintanilla is on the DL as well? Right now I just have him at EST along with LoDuca and Gobble.
by Greg Stanwood on Apr 16, 2010 2:34 PM MDT up reply actions
Yep, saw Q there.
I check Eddy’s blog every day, even when I know there won’t be one posted. I love his info that much. <3 lol
by Greg Stanwood on Apr 16, 2010 2:35 PM MDT up reply actions
Thanks.
I started Libra a ways after January. I’ll update accordingly.
by Greg Stanwood on Apr 16, 2010 2:28 PM MDT up reply actions
Updated list of the mystery players:
RHP William Harris
RHP Josh Sullivan
RHP Tyler Trice
RHP Joey Williamson
C Anthony Aguilera
OF Brad Corley
OF Bronson Sardinha
by Greg Stanwood on Apr 16, 2010 2:43 PM MDT up reply actions
I will double check when I get home
But I believe my current BA says williamson retired
by David OhNo on Apr 16, 2010 2:59 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
noooooooo! :(
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 16, 2010 3:53 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
im betting Eric Young Jr slips a bit
Not only has he disappointed in spring and AAA so far, but Purple Row lost his biggest cheerleader
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 16, 2010 3:55 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
EY is commuting to the Springs everyday, thats how much he believes..
He’ll be back with the team. I haven’t given up on him either.
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by Charlie77 on Apr 17, 2010 2:04 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
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