Starting Pitcher Abuse Points (as of this morning)
1 - Ubaldo Jimenez - 34588
2 - Carlos Zambrano - 17120
3 - Justin Verlander - 15652
4 - Ryan Dempster - 10744
5 - James Shields - 10631
6 - Dan Haren - 9837
All others are below 6300. Ubaldo is on pace for over 285k, obliterating Verlander's mark last year and his total after just four starts would have been 37th overall last year. Are you concerned?
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No
its cliche but I really think Ubaldo has a rubber arm.
/hides under desk, knocks wood.
Maybe I shoudn't be...
But I am. Going into the 120s in two straight starts is troubling.
by MarshallMcCard on Apr 23, 2010 10:34 AM MDT reply actions
Nah
The only reason he went for so long the last 2 starts is because of the no-no and the close game with the Nats with a tight strike zone inflating his pitch count. I figure we’ll run into some games where he pitches more effectively, or we get a huge lead and he can be taken out more easily.
But I guess if we see more close games with Uball on the hill…then it could start to be a problem.
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
I agree about the tight strike zone
But regardless of why he was out there in the 8th, he was out there in the 8th. With a pitch count in the 120s. Hopefully it’s a non-issue, but I’m still worried.
by MarshallMcCard on Apr 23, 2010 10:38 AM MDT up reply actions
You're right
I forgot he started the 8th.
Now that I remember that, it is a little worse than I thought. Tracy should’ve taken him out.
Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.
by ShadowPenguin on Apr 23, 2010 10:41 AM MDT up reply actions
Yeah, and he even hit for himself in the 7th.
by MarshallMcCard on Apr 23, 2010 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions
Exactly...
… the score was 2-0 and he came up and hit for himself. That shows no faith in the bullpen to protect his lead. Instead, he hits for himself, only to get pulled in the bottom half of the 8th anyway. They could have saved a few pitches.
Now if the bullpen blew it, would we be saying that he should have stayed out there? I don’t think so. I’d be wishing for a healthy Street or Buchholtz soon, or wondering if somebody needs to come up from the minors, because our pen kind of scares me.
Yes, I am concerned.
If the bullpen had blown it, people would DEFINITELY be saying....
…Ubaldo should have gone out for the 8th. This was the day after the bullpen blew a game in the 8th inning (okay, it was tied, but still).
I’m not scared right now. Daley and Beimel have been really good, and Corpas seems to be coming around. Betancourt’s history should outweigh his last appearance or two. That does not mean getting Bucky and Street back won’t make us a lot better.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Bucky, not until June sometime
Street? I haven’t heard anything, but my gut tells me sometime around May 10th-15th.
Also, about Bucky, he’s getting healthy, but no one knows if he’ll be at all effective. Daley might have to be our Bucky.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Somewhat concerned.
He’s pitched 99, 115, 128 then 121. That’s a lot of pitches very early. The most important question is whether or not he has to press to keep pitching late. From what I’ve seen he’s not struggling yet so it might be fine. We’ll really find out by the end of the year, I just hope he gets some reasonable starts before we hit the final stretch.
"Because I am a Rockie." - Todd
Tracy should move Ubaldo to the setup role in yhe bullpen..
Like Piniella is doing to Zambrano.
http://tinyurl.com/29jrdfb
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by Charlie77 on Apr 24, 2010 8:30 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Halladay is 22nd with 3528
Lincecum is behind two knuckleballers and at 57th with 728. Jorge de la Rosa is ninth.
Ubaldo’s Abuse Points per start exceeds the season total for all except the five pitchers listed.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 23, 2010 10:43 AM MDT reply actions
He's certainly economical
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 23, 2010 11:20 AM MDT up reply actions
To be fair, 12,464 of Zambrano's abuse points were self-inflicted
Co-Captain of the Greg Lovers Club (along with Silverblood)
by Muzia on Apr 23, 2010 10:56 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
My how times have changed
Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver routinely did what Uball & Halladay & Wainwright are doing this year — pitching CG’s or near-CG’s when needed to help their teams win games. And those old guys did it as part of 4-man rotations.
So are pitchers’ bodies suddenly not able to do that anymore? Even a big horse like Ubaldo or Wainwright?
No. It’s the money. Big contracts for aces make teams more reluctant to risk their health. But physically, there’s no reason Uball can’t keep doing what he’s doing. It’s been done before.
New decade, new result: time for a Rockies' division championship.
This.
I was thinking the same thing, and actually heard someone talking on the radio recently (not about Uball, but the “100 pitch count” thing in general). The idea was exactly as you say: fear of risking an asset. None of the “baseball people” think there’s anything wrong with running out a guy for huge pitch counts, but everyone is afraid of busting out Kerry Wood or Mark Prior. And its a fair concern, if the reaction here is any indication of what apocalypse would happen if he gets hurt after pitch 100. Very interesting storyline.
I think it only is a factor
when it happens so early in the year.
I’d suspect that if Betancourt didn’t give up the 2 runs the preceding game, and with Beimel coming around, they would’ve pulled Ubaldo earlier.
The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.
by rockieprogress on Apr 23, 2010 11:42 AM MDT up reply actions
Ubaldo, Halladay and Lincecum might well be of the Gibson/Ryan/Seaver mold that can avoid injury
But are you telling me pitchers didn’t suffer career-ending injuries in that era? We don’t really remember them, but perhaps their careers would have been prolonged if they weren’t used as much. Not every arm is the same. In the end, some can handle it and some can’t. Ubaldo looks like he can, perhaps, but I’d wait to anoint him invincible for a couple more years at least. I’m okay with him riding near the top of the list if it means pitching him in critical situations. But the eighth inning yesterday was not
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 23, 2010 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions
Well, I remember them. And what I remember is that those guys were power pitchers.
Fastball, fastball, fastball. I think that’s the main reason they were able to avoid injuries. And that stands Ubaldo in good stead IMO.
I hadn’t thought about the money angle but that makes some sense. I’m convinced that today’s athlete with better training techniques could pitch as long as those previous guys.
Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything. ~Toby Harrah, 1983
ill go over the edge dark side hypothetical here
You said it revolves around big contracts do aces. Well, ubaldo doesn’t have a big contract. Suppose the FO knows ubaldo will be unaffordable and a hot commodity as a FA in a few years. Thus, they have resigned themselves to not having him when his contract expires. Thus, the risk goes way down and they can ride him until his arm falls off, getting maximum return on him now
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 23, 2010 11:54 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Well...
Baseball has changed a lot since the 1960s and 1970s. The strike zone has grown progressively smaller, hitters are now being taught to work the count and be more selective with pitches, and there are a lot more strikeouts. There’s also a lot more offense these days (for a variety of different reasons.)
All this means is that pitchers have to throw more pitches. Not that there’s any objective evidence to back this up (B-R doesn’t have pitch counts going back that far), but I’d be willing to bet that it took Bob Gibson roughly the same number of pitches to throw a complete game that it takes most starting pitchers today to go six or seven innings. Even going back to 1991, for which B-R does have pitch counts — I’m looking at the game log for Bob Welch, who pitched seven complete games that season, but only exceeded 120 pitches in two of them.
Another factor to consider is conditioning
today, as it seems most players are brought through the minors w/ pitch counts being looked at and utilized. Most players’ bodies are now conditioned to throw somewhere near 100 pitches throughout their minor league seasons. It makes it tough to re-train the body to throw more pitches once they hit the major leagues. I think players could do it, but it needs to start earier, allowing guys to pitch deeper in the games and throw more pitches. Again money makes teams worry about what could happen though.
"Whenever I see an old lady slip and fall on a wet sidewalk, my first instinct is to laugh. But then I think, what if I was an ant, and she fell on me. Then it wouldn't seem quite so funny."
Jack Handy quote
I think there's definitely something to this
just hearing it. It makes sense. But again, who is setting this system up? The organization, who is tacitly (if not actively) approving the current usage. Renck or the media needs to get on this with DOD.
I don't know
I too thought it was crazy to send him out for the 8th (and pressing in the 7th)…but I’m quite certain that the team and the medical staff is not simply reckless. They know how he’s feeling, and they know how he’s bouncing back. This guy is not a typical pitcher, he’s a freak of nature. And I also think its funny that the number 100 has taken on this mythical status. Its really arbitrary, when you think about it.
That said, this is really a lot of DOD’s job. If he/the FO thinks this is getting towards abuse, its on Dan to step in and set serious pitch counts. Will be interesting to see if there is any buzz about this outside of people like us.
I would say that only the last few innings of each game
did Ubaldo have to through “tough” pitches. By tough I mean under stress and really having to get an out in a particular situation. Most of the last two games he has thrown easy innings and so I am not too concerned. If you are going to be an ace you are going to be asked to do this for stretches during the season. It comes with the job.
Looking at Nolan Ryan, Bob Gibson, and say Jim Palmer...
I’d have to say that pitchers nowadays are kinda weak. I mean, those three are hall of fame pitchers and don’t come along but every generation or so..
I just think that pitchers used to make 40+ starts, throw on 4 (sometimes 3) days rest, and had to face competition just as tough as today’s players (if not tougher because plate discipline was highly regarded, meaning more pitches)…I dunno, will all the medical advances and everything I would say that pitchers are actually becoming weaker.
Or all the games’ great pitchers used some sort of steroids to bounce back from soreness, and injury faster. I have a lot of respect for guys like Sabathia, and Halladay…they break the mold of the typical pitcher nowadays
http://www.flickr.com/photos/thewrightshot/
Plate discipline highly regarded?
Maybe so, but facts are facts: in the 2009 NL, 8.9% of plate appearances resulted in a walk; in the 1968 NL, 7.0% did. On the other hand, 15.6% of plate appearances were strikeouts in 1968 vs. 18.4% in 2009.
Walks may have been lower simply because the strike zone was bigger. You have a point about the strikeouts, but I don’t think there was a significant difference in plate discipline… if anything, there were more hitters back then who were just trying to put the ball in play.
In Japan its common to throw 200 pitches and..
Throw between starts. But they throw more offspeed pitches like a Logan Hernandez, so it doesn’t take a toll on their arms. Ubaldo throws high 90’s with a nasty slider that’s hard on the arm. I expect him to break down at this pace.
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by Charlie77 on Apr 23, 2010 1:02 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Livan Hernandez
/droid fail
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by Charlie77 on Apr 23, 2010 1:03 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
even your phone can't believe Livan is still pitching
Co-Captain of the Greg Lovers Club (along with Silverblood)
yesterday they gave livan's age as 35 and I almost choked
other than cutting him open and counting the rings, is there any way to conclusively figure out one age? I would have to think so
The Big Purple Machine will make a believer outta you!
by El Paso Jeff on Apr 23, 2010 2:47 PM MDT up reply actions
the most shocking
was the highlights of his WS performance in ’99 or whenever. Looks like a totally different guy.
The Nats announcign crew touched on this a little in yeaterdays game
But the comment Dibble made (who aside from his obnoxious rooting for his team, actually was fairly even handed in analysis) was he’s not laboring, he’s not losing velocity and his body make -up and previous experience (he’s been a very durable pitcher with high Pitch counts in his short MLB career) says he can handle high pitch counts a little better.
And then is the inevitable Scoffing by the old timers about “In my day”, which I think holds some water.
I guess all-in-all, Tracy seems to be conservative and I trust his feel for the pitch count of his guys
The Big Purple Machine will make a believer outta you!
Jim Tracy is getting on my nerves.
I’ll give him a lot of slack after the magic he unleashed last year, but he is really starting to irritate me. These pitch counts are unacceptable. You have to take care of the health of your players above everything, and there are only so many bullets a pitcher can fire in his lifetime. I realize some people are more durable than others; Sabathia, Halladay, maybe Lincecum (I’m actually expecting him to implode, either this year or next). We just don’t yet know if Ubaldo is a part of that very, very select group.
Starting Giambi twice a week and batting third? Why? His defense is unacceptable, and his hitting has sucked for the last two years. We are allowing a handful of key base hits he had last year to blind us to his Atkins-like decline.
Olivo. Dingerz. Hax. Iannetta has the same amount of power, but can take a walk. I still think 2008 Iannetta is waiting to bust through, but when he only gets two starts a week, it will never happen. Granted, defensively Olivo has been quite solid, and Chris less so, but I don’t consider him a liability behind the plate. The way Iannetta has been jerked around has been one of the most frustrating things this team has done the last two years.
Melvin Mora at second base? Come on. I realize Barmes needs a rest every now and then, but MM just doesn’t have the athleticism to cut it there at age 38. Instead of wasting a roster spot and a million on Giambi, we should have made a run at Filipe Lopez (okay, not Tracy’s fault, but still).
Rant over.
I do like what Tracy’s done to get all our good outfielders playing time though.
The best things in life are Tulo dingers, Ubaldo strikeouts, and Iannetta BBs.
Uhhh... yeah.
I’m going to have to disagree with most of this, except for Giambi, who has no business batting third and really doesn’t help the team.
Ubaldo had some high pitch counts last year and it didn’t seem to affect him too much. The high pitch count Saturday night was for obvious reasons; you NEVER pull a guy who has a no-hitter going (unless he gets hurt.)
Olivo/Iannetta: I think Iannetta’s probably the better player overall, but it’s not by much, and I have no problem with Tracy running Olivo out there while he’s hot and Iannetta, not so much.
As for Mora, well, you’re right that Barmes needs a day off every now and then. Tracy isn’t the one who decided that Melvin Mora should make the team ahead of EY2; that was O’Dowd. Mora is really the only other player on the roster who can play second.
But is there any
question at all about Uball’s health, other than the random number 100? The guy seems to be a picture of health. And I know everyone is healthy until they are not, but I’ve yet to read anything that suggests Tracy is really risking him here (other than magic numbers). And if he is, it is absolutely DOD’s job to step in and do something. If DOD doesn’t do anything, I have to assume the organization approves. I’m legitimately interested in this debate though, because as much as I love winning these games, I’d hate to bust out the best pitcher in franchise history. I’m following this closely.
As for the rest:
1. You are right about Giambi, shortest leash possible. Should be PH only right now.
2. Wrong on Olivo, he has been fantastic and Iannetta has been bad. Play the guy clearly getting it done, and right now its not close.
3. I’m mystified about the Mora hate around here. The guy has been a reasonably productive backup, and while nobody wants him starting everyday at 2b, his offense has been much better than former-whipping-boy-sudden-golden-child Barmes, who has also struggled in the field.
Oh well, the team is underperforming so I don’t really have a problem with some dissent, but overall I’m not sure how Tracy can be really held responsible, considering its mostly pitching holding us back so far.
Really?
I don’t recall much over the top EYJ love around here, other than from the dearly departed Redhawk. Frankly, I hoped that EYJ would win the job myself. But oddly, Mora has really become an enemy around here despite basically being a pretty average guy who hasn’t had any significant mistakes.
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Same here
My impression of Mora from his years with the O’s (and I admit I don’t follow them that closely) was that he because a savvy veteran player who knows how to play the game. He seems to do things the right way & give 100% effort — “veteran leadership”, if you will.
Yes, his defensive range is limited at 38, but I suspect if given equal playing time with Barmes, he’d have better offensive results, particularly OBP and “productive out” rather than the dinger vs. popout/K results that Barmes has fallen into.
I suspect the Mora hate is a combo of 3 things: (1) protective sentiment for the home-grown “Barmey”/Ol Venison who tries so hard, (2) desire to see what EY2 can do as the alternative, and (3) disappointment that O. Hudson, F. Lopez or another player wasn’t acquired.
As to Barmes, the point’s been made over and over that “he is what he is” — good defense, weak offense. My counter-point is: “What he is isn’t good enough anymore.” It was good enough for a team trying to squeak into a wildcard slot occasionally. For a team that should aspire to challenge the Phillies & Cardinals for NL supremacy, he’s not good enough anymore. That was painfully obvious in last year’s playoff, where Barmes was a designated out in the lineup.
Mora wouldn’t have been my first choice as a 2B upgrade, either. But I don’t think he’s a terrible choice and, heresy though it may be on PR, I think over the course of a season, with regular playing time, he’d produce more WAR than Barmes. I know I’m in the minority on that, but so be it.
New decade, new result: time for a Rockies' division championship.
Barmes
is becoming a figure of legitimate interest on this board, which is usually remarkably consistent in which horses it backs and which it wants to put out to pasture. Barmes is now flipping both sides. I agree with your points above on Mora, and maybe that is swaying votes. Or, the fact that Barmes did an interview for the site. I dunno.
I know for myself (and assume for everyone else) that support for Barmes in any form
has nothing to do with an interview and everything to do with the lack of immediate options in the organization. The team committed to Barmes in the offseason, it is what it is.
"Because I am a Rockie." - Todd
What does that mean though?
Committed? Seems to me that they shopped around, looking at tons of alternatives, and decided not to make a move. I’m not sure they committed to him at all.
Look, I’m not anti-Barmes and I expect to see him out there most days, but somehow he’s gone from the most hated guy in the playoffs (not named Atkins or Tracy) to a guy that riles up tons of support for playing every single day despite abysmal numbers. Just trying to figure it out.
And I think Barmes makes a fine utility player
Just not an everyday presence in the batting order.
I’m not arguing that he be DFA’d, just saying something else
needs to be done in the 8-hole on an everyday basis.
I don’t see another real interal option other than Mora unless EY2 gets
going.
An “external” option I threw out in a game thread drew a hostile reaction,
and I’m not really gung-ho on it myself: Kaz Matsui. Houston would love to dump him, and I’m sure they’d eat most of his $5.0 mil salary. He’s Barmes’ equal on defense, but it’s real question mark what he’d do offensively. He’s off to an EY-like start himself. Realistically, it’s Barmes or Mora for now. Utley is not an option.
“Commitment” is always contingent on performance in baseball. The D-backs committed to Eric Byrnes & he’s long gone. The Rockies committed to Mike Hampton big-time. The Rockies are as committed to Aaron Cook as any player on the roster, with all he’s given to this franchise, but if he has 5 more starts like he’s had so far, that commitment must be re-evaluated. Commitment, ultimately, must be to fielding a contending team.
New decade, new result: time for a Rockies' division championship.
By signing him to a contract this year and not finding a real 2B alternative that was a commitment to me.
Barmes is still stellar on defense and from my perspective he hasn’t looked quite at ugly at the plate. The only alternative right now, for better or worse, is Mora who is a significant downgrade on defense and really not that exceptional on offense. I still wish we had done something else in the offseason but the organization didn’t so it is what it is.
"Because I am a Rockie." - Todd
Teekalong:
“Seems to me that they shopped around, looking at tons of alternatives, and decided not to make a move. I’m not sure they committed to him at all.”
What on earth, then, is your definition of “committed”?
Many definitions of "commitment"
but certainly not “settling” which is how I would describe this. My “quote” from above could have been more artfully worded, but the idea was that they decided not to make a move in the offseason, but didn’t make any long-term decisions.
Generally, “commitment” comes from a huge long-term contract (not, e.g., CDI’s), or from a statement that “he is our guy, hell or high water,” or, even a Stewart situation where his upside makes the commitment valuable.
The idea that because we didn’t replace him and that he is our starter somehow binds us to him makes no sense to me. I view Barmes basically as an “at will” employee. He’s doing the job now, but if DOD/Tracy decide to give it to someone, anyone, else tomorrow, them’s the breaks. In short, why would the team “commit” to him? No upside in that play.
I don't think they really had a choice this year
Their were no other affordable options. At least they bat him i the 8th hole. and he plays steady defense most of the time.
Miguel Olivo is a career .243/.279/.426 hitter. Iannetta is a career .239/.358/.444. That’s a one hundred point difference in OPS. Olivo has an 81 career wRC+, Iannetta a 106. Iannetta is younger with considerably more upside, and is a better hitter right now. Give him 450 to 500 at bats and he will produce far more than Olivo. These 16 games are not enough to bury Iannetta or give Olivo the keys.
I don’t hate Mora. I hate him at second. He should spell Stewart and Helton (if Giambi weren’t around). He has been hitting quite well. I liked the signing then, and I like it now. But he is misused at second.
The best things in life are Tulo dingers, Ubaldo strikeouts, and Iannetta BBs.
by squalene203 on Apr 23, 2010 12:50 PM MDT up reply actions
Then who spells Barmes?
Mora is the only player on the bench right now who can play second. Are you suggesting the Rockies move Stew to second and play Mora at third when Barmes needs a day off?
Just for the record
Current “lines” on:
Barmes — .205/.271/.386
Mora – .273/.304/.409
Whether Mora’s the answer or not, the offensive “production” shown by Barmes’ line just won’t cut it over the course of a season, and certainly not against playoff-level competition. There’s gotta be a Plan B.
The Mora at 3B/ Stew at 2B idea is intriguing, but I’m inclined to say “don’t mess with success” on Stewart. A position change might distract him from his hitting, and I don’t know that he’d be much rangier or better at 2B than Mora.
New decade, new result: time for a Rockies' division championship.
Batting lines
There’s a pretty big difference in number of at bats, though. I haven’t looked them up, but I’ve got to believe that is skewing the comparison, here. How do we know Mora’s line would stay that way with full-time at bats?
We don't
Except usually more regular PT means better numbers.
Mora’s #‘s are an admittedly small sample size. But (without checking)
I suspect they’re fairly close to his recent seasons’ results.
New decade, new result: time for a Rockies' division championship.
Just checked, and they are pretty close
except his OBP is lower than in 2007-2009.
There’s also the “AL East” factor to think about, but with the pitching in this year’s NL West, I’m not sure the league switch would account for much of a difference.
New decade, new result: time for a Rockies' division championship.
this is still a question?
EY2 had a terrible spring and, until very recently, was scuffling at AAA. He may be our utility guy going forward, but he is still plenty green and not ready.
Q is Q. Great glove, completely empty bat with zero pop.
Co-Captain of the Greg Lovers Club (along with Silverblood)
I know all about CDI's career stats
And before the season started, I would have agreed with you (hence my way overdrafting him in fantasy). But…scoreboard. You really can’t argue that CDI would be doing better than Olivo, who is actively helping us win games every night out, while CDI is off to an awful start. I agree you don’t bury a guy for a poor start, but I also think you have to reward current performance over projections. CDI will inevitably have his chances (hell, he’s only had 6 fewer ABs) and he’ll have plenty of time to turn it around. Maybe even today if he gets the nod. But he’s not getting it done right now and it seems inane to me to force-feed him.
31 plate appearances.
I’m sure Albert Pujols has had 31 PA stretches where he’s batted below .200. You don’t bench him for that.
Maybe I am being somewhat unfair. Olivo has helped us win games this year, more than Iannetta (the walkoff dinger notwithstanding). But you have to look forward, not backward. I still think Iannetta gives us a better shot.
The best things in life are Tulo dingers, Ubaldo strikeouts, and Iannetta BBs.
I know you (and many others)
think CDI is the answer going forward. I don’t necessarily disagree. My point is merely that, right now, he hasn’t earned the spot and Olivo has, and it seems backwards to punish the guy playing well because you really, really want the guy not playing well to get a shot. He’ll have plenty of chances, and its on him to earn more PT. You don’t necessarily bench a guy for a short rough stretch, but you do when his competition for PT is playing well.
Also, Olivo's been a lockdown on running games lately....
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I agree with you
I actually wish Rockies fans would get out of the one player mindset when it comes to catcher. or other positions where a rotation could be of benefit for that matter, I understand where the players like the security, the chance for fame, glory, bigger paychecks, what have you, but as a fan, I want the manager to put the best team out there as often as possible. RIght now, our best team is with Olivo, just like last September our best team was with Torrealba. At times, it’s with Iannetta, and it will be again, I just don’t like shooting ourselves with a cold bat when we don’t have to.
Also, I don’t get all the Tracy mistrust right now. I gave everybody here a chance to second guess extending him after the playoffs last season, the voice of the fans was overwhelmingly in favor of it, like a 90/10 split if I recall. I have no idea why everybody’s so eager to jump off that bandwagon after two weeks. I don’t think he’s done anything particularly egregious, he certainly hasn’t been as inconsistent and desperate to exert control as Hurdle was last season at this time.
Right
I recall your cautious approach before the extension, and it does seem that the tone of the board has done an about-face since that time. Its pretty obvious what the “issue” is…and I know this board is fanatically devoted at times, but its definitely odd for one shades-of-grey issue to so thorougly poison the well for a huge number of people. Oh well, certainly makes it fun around here, I for one like the argument it spawns.
Well, I partially disagree with you on both your points...
but I’ve been pretty consistent about that.
The Rockies would have been a better team with Iannetta playing regularly in September and they would probably be a better team in the short run now if he were getting regular PT. To be honest, though, I was happy when the Rockies brought in Olivo and like him much better as a supplanter than Torrealba. So I guess what I’m saying is that while I wish Iannetta would play more, Olivo’s hot streak is at least truly better than CDI’s cold streak (unlike Torrealba last year).
As for Tracy, I like the man as a communicator and as a manager of people/personalities, but he’s just not a good micro or macro strategist (and I haven’t ever since he started jerking the lineup around back in August/September). Yes, I know that the results for those months were pretty good, but evaluating a manager’s decisions based solely or even mostly on results is faulty logic at best.
That isn’t to fault Tracy too much, because I think that most of the managers in MLB are even worse at that part of the job. I just wish that baseball teams would make smarter strategic decisions in general.
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And our defense does not drop off so considerably with Olivo
I hope CDI makes stride also, but at some point we may need to realize that the best thing for the team is the platoon. I think Tracy feels this team will make the playoffs and does not want them worn out when they get there.
as usual
you’re killing me. Not trying to be a stalker, but just once I’d like to see some actual evidence that September could have been better. But as usual i won’t hold my breath.
…and not evaluating a manager on results? Faulty logic? Should we evaluate him on his hairstyle? Talent for prose? Friendly demeanor? Sheesh.
I can't predict the results of games retroactively, but Iannetta crushed the ball in the tiny sample size he was given in September.
Seth Smith could have stepped in for an ice cold Hawpe more, Atkins shouldn’t have been playing at all, etc. There were numerous examples of how the Rockies could (and I emphasize could here because luck happens both ways) have been a better team. Tracy got lucky last year that a number of his sub-optimal decisions worked out for him.
It’s the manager’s job in my opinion to give the team the best chance to win in the short and long term—and by playing the best players at the optimal times he can do that. Tracy didn’t last year (and isn’t this year).
As for results-based evaluation of logic, was it a good decision to push all-in on an inside straight draw just because it ended up coming through for me? No, of course not. It was like Hurdle in 2007—he made some questionable (and I’m being generous) managerial decisions about who was playing and where…just because they worked doesn’t make them good decisions. That’s what I meant by faulty logic.
Managers should be evaluated on how well they maximize the talent and ability of their players while also maximizing the team’s chances of winning. Basically, by making the best possible decisions with the information they have available. If the outcome of those decisions is poor, it doesn’t mean that the decisions were bad.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
again
long on easy rhetoric, but absent any persuasive points based on argument or evidence other than the usual self-serving conclusory stuff. I’ll stop prompting you on this, as we clearly live in different worlds. Enjoy the games.
I'm really not sure where you're getting any of what you said from my post. At all.
What evidence are you looking for? Smith for Hawpe, Stewart for Atkins, both would likely have markedly improved the team’s performance. Playing matchups a little better during the Philly series, especially given the fact that Iannetta CRUSHES lefties and didn’t play AT ALL, would be an improvement as well.
I can’t change the past. Managing a baseball team, at least when setting the lineup and during the game, is not unlike playing poker or investing in the market. Like I said, in my opinion Tracy (or most managers) just doesn’t measure up well in those areas.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Apr 24, 2010 12:58 PM MDT up reply actions
I was a little annoyed when I saw
how many pitches Ubaldo threw. There wasn’t too much of a need to keep him in the 8th. He would’ve thrown 111 instead of 122. I guess it’s not such a big deal, but it’s also following his big no-hitter, and it’s also against the Nationals missing their best hitter. Take the chance for an inning or something…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
In principle, I agree, however...
…citing what I said further up, we’d just blown a game the day before because of 8th inning bullpen issues. 111 is terribad, and remember, in his no-no, he actually threw less pitches in the latter innings. And the Row would have gone ballistic had the pen blown yesterday’s game.
111 is not a terribly high pitch count. 122 is high, yes. But if he’s kept to 105-110 over the next 4-5 starts, I don’t think we’ll see any appreciable falloff.
As manager, Tracy does have to take the long view, but sometimes, keeping the long view in perspective does mean trying to win the game you’re in. The Rox scuffled on this road trip, and given the circumstances, trying to ensure the win today was not a bad call.
I dunno…it just seems like this year, people are looking for whatever reason available to jump on Jim Tracy, almost as if he had zero part to play in going 72-42 as a manager last season (with a very similar roster as to now). He’s earned a hell of a long leash in my book. 2009 was set to be an absolute black hole of a disastrous season until he helped steady the ship.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
If someone can explain to me how abuse points are calculated,
I’ll consider worrying about this. Until then, I trust that Apodaca understands what Ubaldo’s conditioning and arm stress per pitch dictate he’s able to handle.
This is the skeleton of it
Pitches 1-100 0
Pitches 101-110 1 point per pitch above 100
Pitches 111-120 2 " "
Pitches 121-130 3
Pitches 131-140 4
Pitches 141-150 5
Pitches 151+ 6
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 23, 2010 2:38 PM MDT up reply actions
I think there must be a multiplier for the second start in a row over a certain amount
Since both starts were over 120, it’s probably a higher multiplier.
A friend of mine
just told me he thinks that he’s read that 120 pitches is the mark where you can really measure some legitimate concern about risk, but couldn’t think of the source. Anyone else familiar with this study?
most fans don’t know wtf an “abuse point” is……when you get all nerdy on us, at least explain what you’re doing. i’m still trying to figure out this WAR thingy…..:)
Heh
Yeah, should have linked to the PAP intro piece
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 23, 2010 3:56 PM MDT up reply actions
Still not sure I'm getting it
If I’m reading the original table correctly, he got nearly 22,000 PAPs in one of his 4 starts. As Rox Girl says above, there is apparently some sort of multiplier for consecutive “abusive” starts, but I haven’t found anything on that yet…
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
OK, I figured it out.
PAP is not calculated on the scale that ATF’s link or table. It’s actually (#of pitches over 100)cubed.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=123
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
BTW, to continue this conversation with myself...
If Tracy would have pulled Ubaldo at the end of the 7th yesterday (as many argued, but I did not), that alone would have reduced his total by a little over 7000 points.
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
i knew there was a little more to it
That’s why I said “skeleton”. I didn’t have the time to look it up totally. But thanks for that.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 23, 2010 5:21 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Not intended as a criticism, sorry if it came across that way.
It just appears that over the course of 12 years BP decided they found a better way to enumerate this idea, and never updated their original post.
At least we can see, with the scale so steep, how the number can get very big, very quickly. For example compare Ubaldo to James Shields: Ubaldo has thrown 22 more pitches in his 4 games (just over 5 per game) but has 3 times the PAP!
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
I was thinking the same thing
The difference between 100 and 116 pitches is less “abusive” than the difference between 126 and 128 pitches. There may be a way to quantify it, but I’m not so sure this formula is it.
I think PAP's utility was found to be dubious, at best, in subsequent studies
I’ve been trying to find the link to this today. I think everybody agrees that there is some cutoff point where a pitcher loses effectiveness and is at greater risk for injury, it’s just a matter of where it is. Plus, in all likelihood this point is different with every individual pitcher. Jimenez does in some ways fit a profile of pitchers that were able to regularly go beyond mere mortal breaking points, I suppose now’s as good a time to test this as any.
This makes sense
Especially since it seems to kick in at exactly 100 pitches. Seems like there is some sort of fallacy of round numbers, that might apply.
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
lotsa what Rox girl says makes sense
that’s why this blog kicks ass, and I have stats compiled that’s shows its kick assidness…
The Big Purple Machine will make a believer outta you!
by El Paso Jeff on Apr 23, 2010 6:01 PM MDT up reply actions
Start with this thread at the indispensible Book blog
to see some of the other issues with PAP, I’m still looking for that follow-up study, which I thought existed, but might not.
I'll take 285k for Ubaldo any year
or are we not talking about strikeouts
There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit. ~Al Gallagher, 1971
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. ~Earl Wilson
JFK
The Baseball Beancount Geeks
strike again.
by PinchHitLancePainter on Apr 23, 2010 5:00 PM MDT reply actions
tonights line-ups....no rain out please
Marlins
1. Cameron Maybin, CF
2. Gaby Sanchez, 1B
3. Hanley Ramirez, SS
4. Jorge Cantu, 3B
5. Dan Uggla, 2B
6. Ronny Paulino, C
7. Cody Ross, RF
8. Brett Carroll, LF
9. Ricky Nolasco, P
Rockies
1. Carlos Gonzalez, LF
2. Dexter Fowler, CF
3. Todd Helton, 1B
4. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
5. Brad Hawpe, RF
6. Chris Iannetta, C
7. Ian Stewart, 3B
8. Clint Barmes, 2B
9. Greg Smith, P
from renck
The Big Purple Machine will make a believer outta you!
no rain outs please
I would like to go on record…may be first game thread all year i get to participate in
lucky game thread…
The Big Purple Machine will make a believer outta you!
by El Paso Jeff on Apr 23, 2010 6:03 PM MDT up reply actions
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