Saturday Rockpile: Peaks and Valleys (2010 MLB Predictions love the Rox, Francis to DL)
by Bryan Kilpatrick on Apr 3, 2010 8:45 AM MDT
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PrintESPN predicts the 2010 baseball season - ESPN
All of the four letter network's baseball analysts have their predictions listed here. Four people think the Rockies will win the World Series, another two think they'll make it there and lose, and 27 of the 36 think the Rox will be in the postseason in some capacity.
MLB - Keith Law: My 2010 predictions for playoffs, awards and more - ESPN (Insider)
Keith Law has the Rockies pegged to win the NL West by six games over the Dodgers, but expects them to once again lose to the Phillies in the NLDS.
MLB: Jayson Stark: World Series champion, Idol style - ESPN
More crazy ESPN predictions, as this time Jayson Stark puts his two cents in on the upcoming season. Judging by the American Idol-type format he used for this piece, he has the Rox pegged as the fifth-best team in MLB, and second in the NL behind the Phillies.
BP's projected NL standings: Rox in, L.A. out - The Max Info Blog - ESPN (Insider)
Meanwhile, ESPN's new TMI (The Max Info) blog takes information from PECOTA (via Baseball Prospectus) and predicts the Rockies to take the West with 86 wins - three ahead of the D-Backs. Furthermore, PECOTA projects Troy Tulowitzki to hit .293 with 25 homers, and thinks Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa will be clones of each other, combining for 25 wins and 363 K's. Personally, I don't really care for PECOTA projections - all it seems to do is pick the player's last two or three seasons and average out the numbers - but we'll see how everything pans out.
Could the White Sox win the Series? - MLB News - FOX Sports on MSN
Ken Rosenthal's predictions for the 2010 season include the White Sox winning the World Series. He has Carlos Gonzalez as the NL's Breakout Player, and (gasp) Jeff Francis as the NL's Comeback Player of the Year...
Francis' return derailed, reporting arm pain - The Denver Post
Of course, all of the above predictions (especially Rosenthal's) were likely made before the news broke about Jeff Francis heading to the DL (h/t to WolfMarauder). I am a little bit concerned, as it seems that Francis was starting to find his groove a little bit. However, the more I think about it, Greg Smith (who will be the replacement) is pretty much what Francis has turned into at this point anyway, so does anyone who follows this team closely think that the drop-off between the two will be too noticeable?
More Rockies links after the jump...
Power top to bottom is the idea - The Denver Post
"How much power potential do the Rockies have? They're about to open the season with a 25-homer hitter in the seventh spot in their batting order."
Colorado Rockies Will Have Record Payroll | Inside the Colorado Rockies
The club will have a $85.8MM payroll on Opening Day. Ringolsby also linked a player breakdown and year-by-year totals at the bottom of the article.
Corpas confident he can be relied upon | ColoradoRockies.com: News
"Reflecting on an up-and-down spring, Rockies reliever Manuel Corpas said Friday that his performance is merely a question of execution and has little to do with his confidence."
Helton continues to enjoy the moment | ColoradoRockies.com: News
Thomas Harding interviews Todd Helton, who is happy to be a Rockie.
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Comments
Let me be the first to point out Renck's oversight
25 home runs from the 7 spot is impressive, but 23 out of the 8 spot is far more impressive
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2010 9:02 AM MDT via mobile reply actions
Barmes
and impressive should not be in the same sentence. will he last the year at 2B with his .240 BA?
raygu
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Apr 3, 2010 10:25 AM MDT up reply actions
Oh batting average
Such a cute lil stat…
Hating Cubs fans since 1908
by Hizilla on Apr 3, 2010 10:46 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
yea
except he is a terrible hitter by every other metric too, except for LOLZ HOMERZZZ
his IsoP isnt too bad for a 2b
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2010 2:28 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Solid slg for a middle infielder who has a stellar glove. I can live with the rest. I’d love for him to walk more, but the point was for the weak link in the lineup to have 25 hr potential is pretty sweet. I’ve bashed him plenty but with the way the team is built I’m stoked to have him.
Hating Cubs fans since 1908
by Hizilla on Apr 3, 2010 2:58 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
nobody's pretending he's a stud at the plate, but to cite AVG is a bit....well, dumb.
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by Andrew Martin on Apr 3, 2010 11:02 PM MDT up reply actions
If we were going by batting average, we wouldn't even talk about our #7 hitter.
So it doesn’t even make sense.
by CentralCaliRox on Apr 3, 2010 10:47 AM MDT up reply actions
What was Blake DeWitt's average last season?
At least Barmes brings one valuable skill to the plate. That’s not so clear with your starter.
Although, of course in fairness, DeWitt's a lot younger and could conceivably get better.
I really doubt he’ll ever hit for much power, though.
Dewitt
I could see 15 HRs and a .270 BA in 2010
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Apr 3, 2010 1:42 PM MDT up reply actions
of course you could
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by Andrew Martin on Apr 3, 2010 11:02 PM MDT up reply actions
Dewitt's BA
what do you expect his BA to be when he was shuffled between AAA and LA about 6 times last year. He didn’t play much at all when called up.
raygu
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Apr 3, 2010 1:46 PM MDT up reply actions
Barmes and impressive both belong in this sentence:
It is beyond impressive that the unquestionably weakest spot in the Rockies lineup is second baseman Clint Barmes, a veteran defensive wizard with the capability of launching 25 home runs and the designation of being a Rookie of the Year favorite before breaking his collarbone.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2010 11:25 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
25 HRs?
So he has more upside?
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Apr 3, 2010 1:43 PM MDT up reply actions
probably not
But I can safely assume he could reach 25hr as a fill time starter if he got 23 with Stewart stealing ABs at 2b
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2010 2:30 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
eh, I don't see it. 15-20 seems more realistic
here’s hoping he makes us all look silly.
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by Andrew Martin on Apr 3, 2010 11:03 PM MDT up reply actions
Well, like I said, I don't think he WILL get to 25 HR
Especially since he really has been going with an approach to drive the ball the other way. He won’t be looking to pull the ball as much, and his home runs would suffer with successful application of the strategy. I’m just saying if he stuck with it, his HR/PA in 2009 would suggest 25 HR as a full time starter is within his range of ability.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 4, 2010 9:34 AM MDT up reply actions
The amount of controversy Barmes has generated is impressive
that one too
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Barmes displays an impressive amount of humility and accessibility to fans
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2010 11:40 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
the resurrection of Barmes career
After being relegated to AAA two years ago is very impressive to me as well
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2010 11:41 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
you're right, because Barmes hit those 23 dingers they aren't impressive
but we should all be amazed when Ethier hits one.
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by Andrew Martin on Apr 3, 2010 12:52 PM MDT up reply actions
Ethier
and Barmes don’t belong in the same comparison and you know that. Ethier has hit .300 in his career already and his power numbers have increased two years in a row. Not sure it will happen this year, but it could.
Oh and Ethier knocked in 106 last year…..not too shabby.
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by Ray Guilfoyle on Apr 3, 2010 1:45 PM MDT up reply actions
You realize RBIs are contingent on the people in front of him getting on base. 100 RBIs alone means little. Yes, I do think Ethier is good, but it has nothing to so with 106 RBIs.
Hating Cubs fans since 1908
by Hizilla on Apr 3, 2010 3:00 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
you're missing my point
Rockies Homers count too
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by Andrew Martin on Apr 3, 2010 11:06 PM MDT up reply actions
Blog Huddle
covers Jeff’s mention in Simmons’ article.
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by Bryan Kilpatrick on Apr 3, 2010 10:16 AM MDT up reply actions
Sweet.
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As for Smith vs Francis
Jeff was like a secret weapon. If he found his former self again, we could be dangerous. He has a better upside this year, change up, experience and familiarity at Coors Field. But Smith would be a solid fifth starter for many contending clubs. Conservative estimates for Francis yields Smith.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2010 9:05 AM MDT via mobile reply actions
Just happy we have this depth
And don’t have to rush a Chacin to the bigs. And i guess this clears up th BP situation also.
I wonder what the value of his pickoff move is
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
its value increases with an increase in whip
I know that much
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2010 11:26 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Color me dissapointed about Francis, but optimistic this is somewhat
natural in a progression back from his injury and happy we have this type of depth.
good Luck to Greg smith and hopefully we have the luxury of not having to push francis back.
The Big Purple Machine will make a believer outta you!
OH NO FRANCIS IS INJURED WHAT WILL WE EVER DO?
Greg Smith isn’t that bad.
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
"He’s a stiff." - The Legendary Doug Moe
"We have a great bunch of outside shooters. Unfortunately, all our games are played indoors." - Weldon Drew
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
"Keep your head up and don't let anything get to you." - Dante Bichette Jr.
Not that Francis =/= Smith
but all the injuries do have me concerned.
www.twitter.com/owtsproductions
As long as
Francis’ thing isn’t contagious I’m calm
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
to be honest
Starting the season with two sore shoulders isn’t terrible. This time last year, we knew the Lemur and Weathers were out for the year and Francis would be out for a while
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2010 11:38 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
in a lot of ways knowing now is preferable
as it gives the team a lot of time to adjust and correct the situation. A lot of people think the Rockies had unprecedented health last season, which wasn’t true, we just had good timing with the bad news. That seems to be the case here and with Street.
oh it would undoubtedly be preferable to know what the damage is
Though is the case of Francis, I’m not sure we would pursue another starter hard in lieu of Smith anyway. The Street business I would really like resolved soon one way or another
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 3, 2010 2:34 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
the lemur is bucholz right?
im pretty sure the story on him last year was he was hoping to return around midseason which is why he didnt have his tommy john surgery until then.
Yep
I actually posted the fanshot of his Tommy John news in June. But we were still pretty well braced for losing him most if not all of the year
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Apr 4, 2010 9:36 AM MDT up reply actions
Wasn't this what some folks here expected prior to spring training?
Just saying. Not surprised. Not real upset that when someone else has to miss a couple starts we either get to reactivate Francis or recall Smith after he gets some more big league time.
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by Andrew Martin on Apr 3, 2010 12:55 PM MDT up reply actions
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