The smartest thing a Phillies fan has ever said
Normally, Phillies fans are obnoxious and I can't stand them, but one of them summed up my thoughts on sabermetrics almost perfectly in Bill Simmons' Mailbag today.
Wanna know why sabermetrics still hasn't caught on with some baseball fans? Some of us hook up with girls. Do I think Ryan Howard is the best hitter in baseball because he gets 140 RBIs every year? No, but he's a damn good first baseman and I don't need some nerd running lab experiments to tell me so. I'd rather spend my time drinking beers in the parking lot and shouting obscenities in Spanish at passing Mets fans. That's what baseball's all about. If I wanted to do math and science I wouldn't be watching baseball.
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).
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Actually, that statement is pretty much as douchey as anything else a Philly fan has ever said.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
by Franchise26 on May 28, 2010 3:27 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
That's a pretty large sample... ;-)
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
by Rox the Casbah on May 29, 2010 12:53 AM MDT up reply actions
that's just not cool
There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit. ~Al Gallagher, 1971
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. ~Earl Wilson
JFK
Now see, I would have read that same quote
and titled this post “The dumbest thing a Philly fan has ever said.”
But then again they've said a lot of dumb things
I’d say this is average. But I got a kick out of it anyways
"Left hand, right hand, it doesn't matter. I'm amphibious." - Charles Shackleford
"I really didn't want it, but now that I've won it, it's nice. It's an honor. It's nice to know people don't think you're a total idiot. ... It must have been a poor year for coaches." - Doug Moe...talking about winning 1987-88 Coach of the Year award.
#3 + #6 + #15 + #1 = QPU (Quantum Physics University) #25, and no, it's not because of Anthony Carter. And if you don't get it I'm not going to try to explain this to you.
Antoine Walker will win the 2015 NBA 4-point shooting contest. That's right, I said it first.
I especially like how all sabermetric calculations are performed in a laboratory.
Of course, this guy references RBIs as a nerd stat that “he doesn’t need,” so I can imagine that OPS or WAR would probably be very intimidating.
I guess i was agreeing with his more general point
That I don’t need things like OPS and WAR to tell me that Tulo and Ubaldo are really good. I actually like OPS, but any “stat” that I need a good 10 minutes with a calculator to come up with is, to me, a complete waste of time.
The Colorado Rockies aren't a team, they're an armada.
I don't know about you
but I don’t calculate a player’s ERA after every start. I don’t need to. I understand the stat and I can find the stat pages. It’s the same with wOBA. I understand it, can find it, and thus is not a waste of time.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 28, 2010 5:50 PM MDT up reply actions
You've got a point there
I just don’t see the point in worrying about things like Ubaldo’s strand rate. I’m over here thinking of course he leaves a ton of guys on base, his stuff is nasty. It’s hard to get one hit against him in an inning, making two or three in an inning damn near impossible. And whether he can sustain it or not, I’m pretty sure he won’t be this good all season, but it’s not like he won’t be throwing the same pitches, so I suppose he’ll be pretty freaking good all year.
The Colorado Rockies aren't a team, they're an armada.
But why do you feel the need to get up in everybody's faces about it?
If some of us like figuring out how the toy train works, rather than just watching it go around the track all day, why’s it important for you to tell us that we’re wrong?
I can’t speak for free7694, but I can offer some thoughts on this.
I’m not “up in everybody’s faces” about the fact that I’m not a SABR guy, but I understand the feeling. The fact is, it goes both ways. There is obvious value in statistical analysis, and denying that fact is simply foolish. Many of those that are still completely in the “old school” mindset will tell you otherwise, and they’re as annoying as the tin foil hat crowd that listens to the Johnstown station (1360 AM, if you’re in Colorado).
However, I have read no fewer than 10 articles in the past month that say that those who haven’t gotten into the SABR movement are “lazy”, “uninformed”, and “unintelligent” fans. That’s completely false. What bothers me about this crowd is the fact that many of them believe that the “eye test” never works, yet they seem to ignore the fact that there were nearly 100 years of dominant players before sabermetrics were ever introduced. It strikes me as arrogant and condescending.
There is value in both, but I tend more toward the old-school side. I have an issue when I read that this makes me lazy and uninformed, yet the last two years that I played fantasy baseball, I destroyed the entire league.
I really think that a lot of it has to do with the book Moneyball, at least in my mind. Everyone involved in that book came off as overbearing jerks in my mind, and that really turned me off to it. Lewis, Beane, and de Podesta all just came off like, “We know more than you so shut your damn mouth!” It’s stained the SABR movement in my mind, but that’s just a personal thing.
I hate the Red Wings.
This is kinda where I'm at
I’m an engineer. I know my way around statistics. I just don’t do it with baseball – for ME, they don’t go together. That’s right, baseball is different things to different people – and to me, it’s a game I’ve loved since my childhood, before I even knew what a normal distribution was, much less anything more complicated statwise – and I enjoy watching and playing (though I haven’t played in forever). I don’t enjoy mixing it with stats – that’s too much like work. I like drinking (who doesn’t like drinking? OK, there are teetotalers, I’m just not one of them), and I like driving. I don’t mix those, either.
That said, I do bristle at being looked down at (and labeled “uninformed” or other such libel) over the noses of people who do like to mix stats and baseball. Have your fun! I certainly have hobbies others would not get into, but I don’t look down on them for not doing so. Honestly, after a couple of posts or an article with WAR this, wOBA that, bobbida bobbida ho-daddy yanga langa furjeezama bing jingle oh yeah, my eyes glaze over. I don’t get nasty about it, I move on. I’m here for community with other Rox fans, and overall find it to be great. I find plenty of other common ground with most of the stats folks here, too.
Now everybody hold hands and sing kumbayah. ;-)
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
by Rox the Casbah on May 28, 2010 11:16 PM MDT up reply actions
This is pretty much where I'm at......except that I'm not an engineer :)
I like bobbida yanga stat myself. :P
Troy Tulowitzki - Best SS in the MLB - 2010 MVP
Brad Hawpe - Yep, proving y'all wrong
Todd Helton - Time for his ring to come true
Daley has been freed!
Quitter's People United Member #4
Just explain how calling you uninformed is "libel"!
No-one’s making you see the game from a statistical angle, just like no-one’s making me do an MBA. You probably wouldn’t want me running your company, though.
Do you feel our writing is that condescending?
I’ve made it a point to attempt to NOT make my articles be condescending, but rather try and help everyone get on the same page
if I’m missing that mark, let me know, because I promise that I’m trying.
by Andrew Martin on May 29, 2010 12:08 AM MDT up reply actions
I don't see any condescencion in the articles, only enthusiasm and good analysis
and I think that’s great. I think there is the occasional comment that can get a bit condescending (and one typical offender in that regard who’s not you). I tend to treat that the way I do most things I’m not into – hit Z. ;-) Does that make me a Generation Z… um… non-stat-nerd?
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
by Rox the Casbah on May 29, 2010 12:53 AM MDT up reply actions
Not at all
That’s why I like this site. There doesn’t seem to be a SABR vs. non-SABR war here. I’m learning a bit as I go about how the “new” stats are used when I come here, and I’ve always seen it as being done in a manner as to say, “I understand the ‘old’ way. Now I’m trying to help you understand the ‘new’ way, whether you get into it or not.”
I hate the Red Wings.
I appreciate that input
That’s a balance I try to maintain, but often we get the “GenerationZ statnerdz” label.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 29, 2010 12:41 PM MDT up reply actions
I think your writing is very helpful.
I’m new to all the stats and find the number of TLAs overwhelming. But I love the Counting Rocks articles – you explain the stats, how they’re used, what their strengths and weaknesses are, how they relate to other things that we see. It will take me a while before I can remember which one is which in the middle of a discussion of who should bat where in the order, or who should be starting, or how amazing Ubaldo is. But this is a place where I can learn about them.
by glaucophane on May 29, 2010 12:53 PM MDT up reply actions
I appreciate the feedback
if you ever get lost, the two links in my sig are short articles that just quickly run over the metrics I most commonly cite, so you can just skim or Ctrl-F and find the one you need.
by Andrew Martin on May 29, 2010 12:54 PM MDT up reply actions
also remember that fantasy baseball uses the traditional AVG/HR/RBI stats
and not the sabr stats
so…yeah, that’s probably why you destroyed it
by Andrew Martin on May 29, 2010 12:12 AM MDT up reply actions
In my mind, I’m referring to a specific Simmons post that was linked here that I can’t find in the archives. It was posted here because Simmons linked to a post that Jeff Aberle wrote.
I like Simmons, and that particular entry didn’t rub me the wrong way at all. He said something like, “If you’re not into it, you’re lazy, and here’s my fantasy baseball strategy that will show you why. Without these, you won’t win.” It mostly just gave me this smug feeling of satisfaction knowing that I had done it without the aid of the newer metrics.
I hate the Red Wings.
haha, totally!
I personally eschew most predictive statistics – not the work or thought behind them necessarily, but mostly just the hit-and-miss nature of them. I’ll write about them, but won’t necessarily subscribe to them.
Unless you just view them as “expectations” rather than “predictions” because then they’re ok.
good work thwomping in fantasy
by Andrew Martin on May 29, 2010 12:53 PM MDT up reply actions
"However, I have read no fewer than 10 articles in the past month that say that those who haven’t gotten into the SABR movement are "lazy", "uninformed", and "unintelligent" fans."
Hmm. Would you be able to link to those posts?
Honestly, I don’t have the baseball mind enough to be a SABRnerd. But I haven’t had any trouble at all with our more stand-minded folks or their attitude. There IS a degree of elitism amongst different levels of statheads in general, but the initial quote of the OP, as a retort to the SABR elitism, is just a mirrored form of elitism in and of itself.
This is the kind of issue where people will look at it entirely differently, with no real interest in doing otherwise. And it’s okay.
by Greg Stanwood on May 29, 2010 12:13 AM MDT up reply actions
I agree with you, actually
I don’t think either side should be trying to denigrate the other. If somebody just wants to watch baseball and not care about stats, that’s as fine as wanting to know every minute detail about the game. Fans are fans. I hate being told I’m less of one just as much as you do with those articles you mention.
I hate to disagree
And I don’t want to go against the editorial position, but, honestly, wtnelson and Rox the Casbah, you are uninformed. You are choosing to ignore a whole host of relevant facts because you believe what your eyes tell you, and it not what baseball’s about. It’s not likely that you are lazy or unintelligent it’s just that you are not curious, which is what it means to be uninformed.
This notion,though, is divorced from what it means to be a fan since that is about choosing to love a game and a team. You are here which means you are a Rockies fan and we’ll always have that in common, but I am also inclined to take what you say with a little more salt.
by Mitchell Who on May 29, 2010 9:03 AM MDT up reply actions
I'll toss something in here
And this was initially going to be a response to wtnelson, but it works better here. As a SABR nerd, I have absolutely no problem with average fans who couldn’t care less about advanced metrics. Some people have a statistical mind, some don’t. And even some who do (like Casbah) don’t care to look at baseball that way. Whatever. I love looking at the statistical side of baseball, but I’m not going to be arrogant enough to say it’s the only way to enjoy it. Baseball is entertainment, let it entertain you in whatever way it entertains you most.
The people with whom I do take issue with not at least having a cursory understanding of advanced principles is the writers and management. This is their job, and they should be able to understand why Chase Utley is a better player than Ryan Howard even though Howard has more home runs and RBI.
So: Belligerent Phillies fan – I don’t care if you don’t know exactly why Ryan Howard is a good player. Although I do care that you’re using boring, stale arguments to try to make your point. Maybe try to actually understand the other side before you say stuff like this?
by controlled_slide on May 29, 2010 9:14 AM MDT up reply actions
this is a pretty fair assessment
I’m a stat nerd. I’m a scorekeeping nerd. I play sim baseball. I also go to games. I like to play-by-play manage. I never cite wOBA or whatever at games. I will look wOBA up during games to get info on a player I don’t know much about (fangraphs iphone app ftw). If you don’t like wOBA or whatever else I’m citing, that’s fine. Don’t tell me I’m a nerd who doesn’t appreciate the game because I do. That’s when I’ll get condescending.
by Andrew Martin on May 29, 2010 12:57 PM MDT up reply actions
Thank you for making the point in the original post better than any Philly fan ever could
Paleface Destro, wildly hacking destroyer of rallies.
Recovering Mets fan since 2007.
by Paleface Destro on May 29, 2010 11:02 AM MDT up reply actions
I think your last paragraph is a point that is largely missed in this whole “debate”, such as it is. The depth to which one chooses to go does not change his “level of fandom” at all.
For the record, I understand many of the more mainstream uses of sabermetrics (WAR, OPS, BABIP, FIP), and every now and then, I read something on here and decide I want to learn what a stat that I see all the time is, and then I read one of the excellent posts on this site about that stat. I just don’t choose to actively seek those out when I want to learn about a specific player.
One reason is probably this: I am fascinated with the on-field management of the game. Sites such as this one tend to lean more toward the upper management, team construction side of things, at least from what I’ve seen. Not much is said about the on-field aspects beyond the talk of lineup tinkering, which is obviously where more advanced statistical analysis comes in. I like to think of baseball in terms of double switches, suicide squeezes, hit and runs, and “going with your gut”. It’s more fun that way to me.
One more thing to understand about me – I come from an agricultural family. While more progressive than previous generations, it’s hard to get an aggie to move from the “old school”, and we’ll always revert back to it in some situations because that’s just what we know. We’re also inherently skeptical (some may even call us a little “cynical”). It’s just the nature of things due to the fact that there are always people that know nothing of our industry trying to regulate us. I hope that I can be forgiven for being stuck in past times a little.
I hate the Red Wings.
excellent comment, wtnelson
No reason to be forgiven for being stuck in the past times…they’re what makes us what we are in the future.
In leadership,sometimes it comes strictly down to courage. We have to have courage within our organiztion today. It takes courage to be a Colorado Rockie.
....Keli McGregor 2007
They may make you what you are in the present - by definition they must
but do you not have the slightest desire to go with the times, and allow new thoughts of discoveries to change and perhaps improve your life, for a better future? That’s what builds on the past times of experience, memory and emotion to make you who you are, rather than wallowing in an unchallenging past.
Why in the world
would you think that I have no desire to allow changes to improve my life. I was merely trying to say that we should embrace our past and in his case no reason to be forgiven. You have made assumptions that are just not factual. I do not wallow in anything and my past is definitely not unchallenging.You know NOTHING about who I am or what kind of life I have had. Perhaps the word “stuck” is what set you off. He also said “a little” to clarify.
In leadership,sometimes it comes strictly down to courage. We have to have courage within our organiztion today. It takes courage to be a Colorado Rockie.
....Keli McGregor 2007
The past doesn't make us what we are, the past contributes along with the present and the future
You also misunderstood the word “unchallenging” – I didn’t intend at all to comment on you or your experiences as I have no idea (apart from that wonderful story you told the other day on the civil rights thread). I meant to suggest that you sound like you’re unwilling to allow the present day to challenge your beliefs.
When you use the word "you" in a response to a
comment of mine, I tend to think it is meant to me. Could you elaborate on what I have said to make you think I am unwilling to allow the present day to challenge my beliefs.
In leadership,sometimes it comes strictly down to courage. We have to have courage within our organiztion today. It takes courage to be a Colorado Rockie.
....Keli McGregor 2007
Maybe I'm just being a pedant, and it doesn't matter
But you seem to make a very bald claim that the past (where it’s fine to be stuck) makes us what we are in the future, which implied to me that we can’t learn anything from the present, or even the slightly closer future.
Perhaps you are being a pedant,
but I probably expressed myself poorly. My bald claim was mitigated by the words “a little”. My life has taught me the past experiences and the present lessons all give me wonderful hope for the future. I am much older than you and I have had an extraordinary life. I hope you have one as well. :) GO ROCKIES !!
In leadership,sometimes it comes strictly down to courage. We have to have courage within our organiztion today. It takes courage to be a Colorado Rockie.
....Keli McGregor 2007
Mitchell Who, you entirely miss the point
I could sit here and say that you are uninformed about youth movements and folk traditions about which I have a passion, and it wouldn’t change your life. You wouldn’t care. You wouldn’t run out and start reading histories and learning new crafts (or maybe you would, and that’s fine too). If you’re uninformed about something about which you don’t care, does it matter? No. You can take what I say with all the salt you want – but why don’t you branch out and use garlic? Or saffron? – and it won’t matter to me (though if you want to be skeptical of my admiration for Ubaldo’s pitching or Tulo’s footwork because I don’t develop statistical models based on them, I’m not quite the one who looks silly there). It’s also a specious argument – I could see you taking what I say with a grain of salt if I start talking about BABIP, FIP wOBA, etc. But have you ever seen me talk about such things? No. Because it’s not my thing and I have nothing to contribute in that regard. I actually find it rather cool to hear about stats on certain players in context, but when it gets into a deep nitnoid discussion, I tend to move on and talk to Maria about hot dog brands, and both conversations are equally fun, valid, and participated in by cool, intelligent Rockies fans.
As a side note, you say that getting elbow-deep in stats is divorced from being a fan, and that being “uninformed” because some of us choose not to “inform” ourselves by looking at stats is not the same as being “lazy” or “unintelligent,” but I will tell you that some comments come across as much more “lazy” and “unintelligent” than “not passionate about that aspect of the game.” (This actually includes a comment or two by you.) There are one or two on this blog who are more likely to strike that tone than others, and most of the knowledgable stats folks on this blog are not like that at all. Other places around the sports blogosphere, that attitude is far more prevalent as well.
Bottom line is this: It’s great to be a stat nerd. It’s great not to be a stat nerd. It’s not ok to be an a$$hole to people who enjoy different aspects of the game than you do.
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
by Rox the Casbah on May 29, 2010 5:48 PM MDT up reply actions
I have to agree here
I find many of these numbers interesting. Can I rattle them off like I’ve been doing it all my life? No, and I don’t want to. When a discussion gets that deep into common and obscure statistical representations, I abstain because I know I have nothing to add. To me, getting that deep into it is too much like work, and I don’t like my diversions to be work. :)
I’ve always seen baseball as a game that is felt as much as it is calculated. It’s just as much about intuition, judgment, and subtleties that can’t always be explained, let alone quantified. Maybe that makes me old-school, I don’t know. It’s just how I watch the game.
I don’t mind someone taking a more quantitative view of the game (again, I find it interesting even if I have less than nothing to add to the discussion), but I’m with you—I won’t abide someone telling me I’m stupid because I didn’t get my wOBA in your BABIP. Ultimately, it’s a child’s game, for crying out loud…
I think the underlying point of this fan’s comment was sound, even if it just had to be expressed in the only language (a**hole) a Philadelphian can understand.
Paleface Destro, wildly hacking destroyer of rallies.
Recovering Mets fan since 2007.
by Paleface Destro on May 29, 2010 10:59 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
His greatest ambitions being drinking and abusing people?
While also hating on people who want to try and further their understanding of something? By thinking? His tone is scornful, abusive and anti-intellectual. Not my cup of tea and I’m surprised anyone on PR genuinely feels that way.
I was going to say something about this
As I saw that Simmons article. But it looks like PF has said everything that I was going to say. Moving along…
by controlled_slide on May 28, 2010 6:25 PM MDT up reply actions
it takes me like 10 seconds to come up with most of the metrics I like to cite
whether by calculation or just surfing over to fangraphs.
The 10 minutes sounds like a personal problem there.
by Andrew Martin on May 29, 2010 12:06 AM MDT up reply actions
I think you read that wrong
He did not reference RBI’s as the nerd stat that he doesn’t need. He said that the fact that Howard gets 140 RBI in a year does not make him believe that Howard is the best player in baseball.
Those in the 100% SABR side tend to talk down to those of us who still like the standard BA/HR/RBI. I think that’s what he was getting at.
I hate the Red Wings.
I boil carbonate salts to find Carlos Gonzalez' LHP splits by wRC+
I inject silicon into rabbits to see how Jason Hammel’s numbers would look in a context-neutral environment.
I wear a labcoat whenever I boot up Excel.
by Andrew Martin on May 29, 2010 12:05 AM MDT up reply actions
I can feel some great "mad scientist" pics coming on.... ;-)
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
by Rox the Casbah on May 29, 2010 12:49 AM MDT up reply actions
Baseball is different things to different people
If I wanted to get my enjoyment our of running iterations of regression analysis for predictive statistical purposes, that’s my prerogative. Of course, this is NOT what I do. I prefer to watch games, chat with strangers, eat hot dogs, drink beer, and boo the wave, just like most fans. Being statistically minded makes me enjoy the game more, but it’s not mutually exclusive as most non-SABR/non-statheads tend to accuse.
Oh. And I do have a girlfriend. And she’s gorgeous.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 28, 2010 5:00 PM MDT reply actions
Hullo
This would be the girlfriend who Andrew spoke of. He showed me this in an attempt to get brownie points. It worked. Especially since he is not an idiot and can spell. Boy-why did that sound angry? I dunno. But my man is damn smart and that is sexy sexy.
I have Kraken rum and coke.
where does that get me
by Andrew Martin on May 31, 2010 1:28 AM MDT up reply actions
Oh good lord
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 28, 2010 5:39 PM MDT up reply actions
And she figured out the reply function on the first try.
She’s a keeper.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on May 30, 2010 10:52 PM MDT up reply actions
“…drinking beers in the parking lot and shouting obscenities in Spanish at passing Mets fans. That’s what baseball’s all about.”
So uhm, I see how my mom’s basement has failed me now. 1) No Mets fans who don’t understand my drunk Spanish curses, and 2) I can actually watch baseball games on my TV or computer, which has been impossible in every stadium parking lot I’ve ever been to.
I now understand that the actual game of baseball is not what baseball is all about, instead it’s about beer, concrete and non-bilingual Mets fans. Wow. My mind has been blown.
Amazing how clear and simple life is for a Phillies fan, huh?
Paleface Destro, wildly hacking destroyer of rallies.
Recovering Mets fan since 2007.
by Paleface Destro on May 29, 2010 11:39 AM MDT up reply actions
they are Phillies fans
Maybe this IS the smartest thing they have ever said??
Half of this game is 90% mental.
by christianrockie on May 28, 2010 8:00 PM MDT reply actions
While this is probably not the *smartest* thing a Rockies fan has ever said...
I love this! :-D
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
by Rox the Casbah on May 28, 2010 11:07 PM MDT up reply actions
So being a complete douchebag is the answer to sabrmetrics?
So basically everything was awesome. We were crushing it, bra. And then, this little f****** nerd in front of us is like, “Can you be careful? You’re spilling beer on my daughter’s head,” and I’m like, “Whatever dude — it’s a ballgame. Shut up and enjoy the ride!” and he’s like, “Just try to be more considerate,” and then his little nerd son is like, “Daddy, look, Manny’s up!” and his nerd dad is like, “Let’s go Manny!” and his nerd son is like, “His batting average is down to .288” and that’s when I just lost it, bra. Those f****** nerds and their numbers. So I pull my rod out — you know, because I have to piss, right? — and the guy is all, “Hey! You can’t do that here!” and I’m like, “Sorry, nerdbra, the only statistic I care about is how many brewskis I’ve had and how much piss I’ve pissed” and the next thing you know security is dragging me out and they’re all like, “You’re banned for life” and I’m like, “Bra, what the hell?” and they’re like “You pulled your penis out and urinated at your seat and there’s vomit on your forearm, and also you can’t smoke in the stadium, and your friend is wearing a shirt and shoes but no pants,” and I’m like “He’s Donald Ducking it, bra — it’s classic!” and they’re like, “Get out of here and never come back.”
And that’s when I realized: nerds have ruined baseball.
http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/05/1-reason-i-am-willing-to-be-baited.html
No, being a complete douchebag is genetically ingrained into Philadelphians
Subtle difference. :)
Paleface Destro, wildly hacking destroyer of rallies.
Recovering Mets fan since 2007.
by Paleface Destro on May 29, 2010 11:05 AM MDT up reply actions
The thing about the numbers is, while they're good at telling you the "what", they don't reveal the "why"
Maybe that’s why I never got into the stats side too much other than the obvious (ERA, BA, OPS, etc.). A poor OBP tells you that a guy doesn’t get on base a lot. Okay, well, WHY? Is he a really impatient hitter? Is he a switch-hitter who hits more often from his weaker side (coughDexcough). Same thing with BA. Is there a pitch that’s kryptonite to this guy? The truly great managers and teams understand this, and work tirelessly to decipher the “why” (that’s probably why the Dodgers always have the Rockies’ number). On the flip sideook at someone who’s almost solely numbers-focused like Billy Beane. How much success have his teams really had over the years? Be honest.
I’ve always been more into the “whys” of the world than the “whats”. My hat is off to those who understand the “what” inside and out. It certainly helps us figure out and understand the “why”. I think there’s a place for both, but no one should be calling anyone out for being more interested in one or the other. Both views are needed for a complete picture.
Paleface Destro, wildly hacking destroyer of rallies.
Recovering Mets fan since 2007.
by Paleface Destro on May 29, 2010 11:33 AM MDT reply actions
That's precisely backwards
The game will always take place on the field, and we judge what happens there with our eyes. Our eyes more often than not can be deceived, and the benefit of the stats is that you can either confirm or deny your initial impression. They can explain why you thought the way did, or they can make you re-evaluate your understanding. In either case they deepen the understanding of what you are seeing with an explanation of why.
by Mitchell Who on May 29, 2010 11:54 AM MDT up reply actions
No, it's not.
If it was, Billy Beane would be wearing a couple of WS rings right now.
Honestly, I don’t think you mean to, but you come off as precisely the type of condescending stathead that is being criticized in the original post.
Paleface Destro, wildly hacking destroyer of rallies.
Recovering Mets fan since 2007.
by Paleface Destro on May 29, 2010 11:58 AM MDT up reply actions
do not use BIlly Beane as an example, because people don't recognize the success he had because OMG RINGZ
SABR stats are meant to be a season-long thing. Even Billy Beane admitted openly that “My sh*t doesn’t work during the playoffs” because a small sample set like the postseason falls complete victim to the concepts of small sample sizes and the like.
Billy Beane may not have won the Athletics a WS ring, but check this out:
Year W L W-L% Finish
2006 93 69 0.574 1st of 4
2005 88 74 0.543 2nd of 4
2004 91 71 0.562 2nd of 4
2003 96 66 0.593 1st of 4
2002 103 59 0.636 1st of 4
2001 102 60 0.63 2nd of 4
2000 91 70 0.565 1st of 4
1999 87 75 0.537 2nd of 4
I’m clearly cherrypicking the years where they were successful, but they were also the years of MoneyBall type management. The common argument against Beane is “LOOK WHERE SABR STATS HAVE GOTTEN HIM NOW THE A’S SUCK” – no, other teams finally wised up and began using statistical evaluation as a major part of their teambuilding, so now Beane isn’t able to find awesome/underrated players on the dirt cheap anymore. The competitive edge he had has now been taken away.
All the SABR stats are about season-long success, and GETTING one’s team to the postseason. Once you’re there, it can be hot hands or pixie dust or ribbies or whatever wins it for you.
SABR and such worked. Completely. It’s hard to match that level of success over nearly a decade, especially with a tight budget. He did a fine job of it.
by Andrew Martin on May 29, 2010 1:10 PM MDT up reply actions
In other words, it is the action on the field that results in the stats, not the other way around
Stats are always representations of the past.
Paleface Destro, wildly hacking destroyer of rallies.
Recovering Mets fan since 2007.
by Paleface Destro on May 29, 2010 11:59 AM MDT up reply actions
I don't know how to title this
In the end your right stats don’t tell us why someone isn’t doing or preforming as well as others. They do allows us to evaluate players against each other and SABR stats give us a bigger more accurate picture to evaluate the player. Stats are always representative of the past, but the past performance is usually the best thing we have to evaluate them. In other words we are trying to get the best overall picture of a player that we can to state our opinion on how good they are. True stats and SABR stats can’t tell us everything but they are effective.
this is more or less correct
Fielding is my favorite example. Jacoby Ellsbury and Nate McLouth were rated as excellent defenders. Secret: they’re not. Reason why? They have terrible range and make terrible reads on balls. They made a lot of superdramatic catches because they were fast enough to make up for their own ineptitude and still get to some of the balls. The best fielders are most often the most boring ones.
by Andrew Martin on May 29, 2010 1:11 PM MDT up reply actions
No, Destro has it right
this
The game will always take place on the field, and we judge what happens there with our eyes. Our eyes more often than not can be deceived, and the benefit of the stats is that you can either confirm or deny your initial impression.
supports Destro’s position admirably. To put it more simply, which dialogue makes more sense?
Dialogue 1:
Bob: Why is Mendoza such a crappy hitter?
John: Because he has a low batting average.
Dialogue 2:
Bob: Why does Mendoza have such a low batting average?
John: Because he’s a crappy hitter.
Of course, as baseball fans, we know that this is a gross oversimplification, but the simple fact is that the stats are a result of performance on the field, not a cause of performance on the field. Stats can help us quantify aspects of performance, and confirm that something is a legitimate trend as opposed to a “halo effect” (or “horns effect,” as it were), where only spectacularly good or bad performance is remembered. They are certainly valuable. Nobody with half a brain would argue otherwise. But stats are not created in a vacuum. They have to come from somewhere. A logical progression might go like this:
1) Identify a problem based on impression of performance.
2) Check stats to confirm and start to ferret out what is going on.
3) Watch how situations and performance affect stats.
4) Make improvements.
5) Evaluate.
So if you’re asking the question, “why do I think Barmes’ hitting sucks so much?” they yeah, stats might get you started on the path to answering that “why” – but they do so by giving you a “what.” You’ll still have to go back to watching Barmes bat on the field to figure out how to make an improvement.
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
by Rox the Casbah on May 29, 2010 6:04 PM MDT up reply actions
remember that stats, as used by teams, are meant to be tools
Front-Office guy talks to Manager guy and says “hey, Barmes seems to be struggling lately. My on-paper analysis seems to suggest that he’s struggling to hit line drives etc etc etc. Does this match up with anything you see?”
and then Manager guy can respond “we have seen a hitch in his swing” or whatever, and then they can correct it.
by Andrew Martin on May 29, 2010 10:40 PM MDT up reply actions
Precisely. In fact, they are very valuable tools.
The point was that the player creates the stats, not the other way around.
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
by Rox the Casbah on May 30, 2010 1:20 AM MDT up reply actions
well put
stats measure results. results indicate what is going on, whether good or bad.
wooo
by Andrew Martin on May 30, 2010 8:48 PM MDT up reply actions
Stats give you an opportunity to analyse almost everything about a player in every context
You simply can’t see it all unless you’re a team coach or one hell of a loyal (and rich) fan.
In 2007 I loved Willy Taveras because whenever I saw a game he’d get on base every time and then steal every time. The halo effect, as you say. But actually that’s hugely misleading. I very much enjoyed watching Willy; but that’s one dimension of a multi-dimensional game, and I truly feel that if you don’t have at least a passing appreciation of how the numbers can help you analyse the game, then I really think you’re missing out. Though I respect your right to make that choice
That's only partly true
This is not only in response to you, Destro, but also others in this conversational thread. You’re conflating a couple of things which sound similar but aren’t really. One is a statistical record of things that have happened (we’ll call them metrics so we don’t get confused) and the other is a statistical evaluation of past events in order to attempt to predict the future.
Metrics record what happened, and yes, these are 100% dependent on what happened on the field. Great strides have been made in understanding which metrics matter more to winning baseball games – e.g. batting average doesn’t tell us as much as OBP, pitchers can’t control what happens to balls put in play as much as we thought. These metrics are great, and, as I said above, if fans don’t find these things useful or interesting then they shouldn’t feel obligated to get into them.
On the other hand, there are statistical regressions and stuff that help us figure out how players will do in the future. This is doing stuff like looking at aberrant BABIPs and xFIPs and trying to determine which direction a player will probably regress. These numbers and methods are kind of only useful for hardcore nerds and possibly front-office types who are looking for good values in pickups who can be expected to improve their metrics by just getting a little “luckier”.
Finally, I think that Sabermetrics can help figure out a lot of the “whys” also. After all, when someone, say, looks at a bunch of videos and makes an observation like “he can’t hit a low curveball” or “he’s throwing out of a bad arm slot” all he’s doing is recording his observations – either mentally or on paper – and then making judgments about them. There are a boatload of new metrics that attempt to tell us why a player is doing badly. Maybe there aren’t enough yet, maybe many of them aren’t useful, maybe most of them are far too granular to be interesting, but there are lots of smart people who are trying to quantify these things, and to a large extent, they’re succeeding.
Again, I don’t think that whether people don’t get into the Sabermetrics movement or not has any effect on whether they are a good baseball fan. And I’m certainly not attacking those on here who don’t get into it. I happen to like most of you, and those I don’t has nothing to do with whether or not they’re into Sabermetrics.
by controlled_slide on May 30, 2010 9:31 AM MDT up reply actions
As an engineer and a musician
Baseball is the perfect combination of both worlds to me. I pay attention to IP, WHIP, ERA, K’s, wins/losses, saves/blown/holds, triple crown, triple slash, stolen bases, OPS, fielding % and caught stealing %. Using these basics, I can get an idea of how well a given player/team is going in a given season. From this point onwards, baseball becomes a whimsical game with an unpredicable ebb & flow and where baseball gods play as much of a role as talent. That’s what appeals to me so much about the game—it’s the perfect marriage between both halves of my brain. SABR is a little intimidating though.
As far as the Phillies fan, before you even get to SABR, I feel like many/most baseball fans don’t even understand what it means to have a good season based on the basic statistics. A guy told me he thought Chipper Jones should be on the all star team this season because he was havin’ “a helluva season.” Really guy? lol
Ultimately, Phils fan actually makes a good point, but it’s not the one he intends to—there are way too many people in this country who are friggin stupid at math and science. lol
Yes, I actually do like cricket. I'm Indian.
"We could have had Jesus on the mound and [the Rockies] still would have gotten hits." -Paul Lo Duca
"I mean come on, you can’t be from Nebraska and go to school at CU, I think they take away your overalls or one of your last remaining teeth for that."
Hollidayrain Music
Yay, a fellow engineer and musician!
I knew there was a reason I liked you… ;-)
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
by Rox the Casbah on May 30, 2010 4:26 PM MDT up reply actions
Do you like me too then?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on May 31, 2010 8:11 AM MDT up reply actions
I also have an engineering degree and play the bass
by Andrew Martin on May 31, 2010 12:56 PM MDT up reply actions
You people
and your engineering degrees. . . .
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
Yeah, I mean,
who wants to know the lessons from the German counterattack at Mortain?
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
I hope you enjoyed the rockpile
I tried to make it at least a little bit historical
by Andrew Martin on May 31, 2010 3:32 PM MDT up reply actions
It was quite good.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.

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