NL West Report: Why the Padres Can't Win the West
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 12, 2010 12:00 PM MDT
in NL West Report
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PrintWhen a team far exceeds expectations, there is always at least one player who far surpassed all projections. Multiple players have done so for the San Diego Padres, none so more than Mat Latos.
At just 22-years old, Latos was supposed to be effective but experience a lot of growing pains, not unlike Max Scherzer last season; that has not happened. Latos is ranked 16th in strikeouts, seventh in ERA, eighth in FIP, eighth in xFIP, tenth in BB/9 and 16th in WAR (Fangraphs). Those numbers put him among the elite pitchers in the National League, even accounting for PetCo. Don't forget, the 22-year-old was Bud Black's fifth starter to start the season.
Regression? Nope, that's not what I'm calling for, though that would probably be likely as well. You may notice that I have mentioned Latos' age several times now. It is important. Let's check the innings he has thrown in his career:
| Year | IP | Levels |
| 2007 | 131.1 | College, SS-A |
| 2008 | 45.0 | SS-A, Lo-A, Hi-A |
| 2009 | 123.0 | Hi-A, AA, MLB |
| 2010 | 106.2 | MLB |
Latos dealt with an intercostal strain multiple times in 2008, yet still found himself in the majors the following year. He has ace written all over him, and the Padres aren't about to mortgage the future to squeeze more innings out of him, even as division leaders. As it is, GasLampBall is already asking when Latos will be shut down to limit his innings.
Truthfully, the shutdown has already started. Bud Black has manipulated their rotation to push Latos back after the All-Star Break, giving him 16 days between starts. Essentially, the Padres are going to try to hold off the rest of the NL West while benching their best pitcher. It is just not going to work.
Tim Stauffer would probably be the best choice to replace Latos when he gets shut down. While Stauffer has allowed just one run in relief this season, it has been in 24.1 innings. Fantastic, no doubt, but still a fairly small sample. He has a career ERA of 4.55 for the Padres, and he would be a big downgrade from Latos.
How much? If you want to get gritty with WAR, Latos has been a 2.1 WAR pitcher this year. Considering the 150-180 inning limit he is at, the Padres will remove him for 3-8 starts, probably starting in August. Even if Stauffer is a replacement level pitcher, the net difference in WAR is less than two games, which the Padres lead the NL West. So no biggie right?
But this is the issue with this analysis; you can't look at total wins. The marginal loss of WAR in each individual game is undeniable, and on multiple occasions, it can be just enough to drop a W into an L. After all, he is the only Padre starter with a win in the month of July. Then consider Latos would be added to a division chase in September after 3-8 starts of down-time. Who is to say his arm will respond to his All-Star caliber ability?
The Rockies are charging and the Dodgers and Giants will be retooling. While the Padres are playing for the future more than they are 2010, the NL West is there for the taking this year.
Team capsules after the jump.
NL West Report
Arizona (34-55, 5th, L1, 17.5 GB)
Last Week: 2-4. 0-3 vs. Cubs. 2-2 vs. Marlins
Divisional Change: Lost 0.5 games to first-place San Diego.
This Week: 3 game road series @ Padres
You Should Know: While comfortably three games better than the pace for their atrocious 2004 mark, the Diamondbacks are still on pace for 100 losses, a distinction the Rockies have never held.
News: First round-pick Barret Loux failed his physical this week. Josh Byrnes overruled his scouting director when selecting Loux, and Tracy Ringolsby implies the pick may have hastened Byrnes' dismissal. After all, Loux was not a consensus first round pick, had been ridden hard by Texas A&M late in the season and had surgery in college. Perhaps Byrnes should have known better. Contrarily, AZSnakePit suggests Byrnes maybe DID know better, choosing to punt the pick on an injured player who wouldn't pass his physical in order to earn a pick in next year's deeper draft.
It seems Detroit and Arizona really like each other, enough to want to swap out their entire rosters for each other. The two teams have shared Jose Valverde, Brandon Lyon, Dontrelle Willis and completed that big trade in the offseason. Now, the Tigers want Stephen Drew. Soon after that report, Nick Piecoro found out the Tigers and D-Backs have not discussed Drew in the past week.
The Tigers might also be interested in Dan Haren, but Jason Beck correctly points out that Drew is a much more likely target.
Sean McAdam tweets that while Boston is interested in Chris Snyder, they would trade for the catcher this offseason, not before the trade deadline.
Dan Connely tweets that while Kevin Towers is "in the mix" to be the new GM for Arizona, their number one choice is Yankees amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer.
Jim McLennan asks "Who is the Diamondbacks' top offensive prospect?" Not exactly a world-beating list. And if you're curious, Bobby Borchering and A.J. Pollock (their first round picks in 2009) have a ho-hum .319 and .307 wOBA in Single-A South Bend this year, respectively.
The Yankees signed long-time D-Back Chad Tracy.
Chris Young will be in the home run derby at the All-Star game. He will not be the one I will be rooting for.
Transactions: None.
Injuries: Brandon Webb threw another successful bullpen session on July 6.
Los Angeles (49-39, t-2nd, W1, 2.0 GB)
Last Week: 4-3. 1-2 vs. Marlins, 3-1 vs. Cubs.
Divisional Change: Gained 1.5 games on San Diego.
This Week: 4 game road series @ Cardinals.
You Should Know: After starting off his major league career in eye-opening fashion, John Ely has completely fell apart. Last week, he allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in five innings. In two starts. The Dodgers have lost five of his last six starts, so you can bet Ned Colletti is looking for ways to replace his pumpkin.
News: Los Angeles added their third and fourth All-Stars this week. First, Rafael Furcal was chosen to replace Jose Reyes, and then Charlie Manuel chose LHP Hong-Chih Kuo to replace OF Jason Heyward instead of another outfielder, like Carlos Gonzalez.
The Dodgers' priority is pitching help, though it remains to be seen whether they will be able to find a match. They were one of four teams scouting Roy Oswalt on July 8, though I would be shocked if Ned Colletti can find a way to make that work.
Los Angeles active in trade talks for Cliff Lee, but according to Dylan Hernandez, Colletti's choice to make James Loney and Chad Billingsley untouchable closed the door on that avenue. MLB.com's Evan Drellich confirms this.
Bill Shaikin of the LA Times suggests that the financial issues with the Dodgers might extend into this offseasonas well if the McCourt divorce goes to McCourt court. This does not surprise me in the slightest. It just highlights how much of a wide open window this year and next is for the Rockies in the NL West.
Transactions: Signed FA OF and former Diamondback Trent Oeljten and assigned him to AAA Albuquerque. Placed RHP Ronald Belisario on the restricted list and actived RHP Carlos Monasterios from the 15-day DL.
Injuries: Manny Ramirez began a rehab assignment this past weekend. He should be due back soon after the ASB.
San Diego (52-37, 1st, W1)
Last Week: 2-4. 1-2 @ Nationals. 1-2 @ Rockies.
Divisional Change: Lost 1.5 games to 2nd place Los Angeles and 2.5 games to now second place Colorado. By winning yesterday, they maintain first place for the 12th straight Monday.
This Week: 3 game home series vs. Diamondbacks.
You Should Know: Seven Padres hitters have an OPS+ over 100. That does not include Chase Headley.
News: Bud Black says he isn't worried about the NL West race. At least he wasn't before Saturday's game. Think that has changed?
With starting outfielder Will Venable on the DL, Jon Paul Morosi asked a scout if he thought the Padres would trade for an outfielder:
"No," scout told me. "Aaron Cunningham is playing better than Venable was."
The Rockies saw that first hand this weekend.
I'm not sure how knowledgeable that scout is, because Jed Hoyer has said he will try to acquire a middle-of-the-order bat and a starting pitcher, and that the Padres WILL be buyers. If you were concerned, Hoyer has been okayed to take on payroll in such deals, if necessary, though he'll be looking for a middle of the order bat with solid defense. I'm not really sure who he thinks he'll be getting to fit the bill.
Know this name: Keyvius Sampson. The 2009 4th rounder is tearing up the Northwest League in Short Season at just 19: . He dominated Tri City on June 26 and has been garnering interest from many teams. Check that stat line.
The Padres did take out injury insurance on Chris Young's contract, though Jed Hoyer was quite dodgy when asked whether that included 2010. Hmm...
Transactions: Traded RHP Sean Gallagher to Pittsburgh for cash. Gallagher was received in a mid-season trade for Scott Hairston last season.
I njuries: David Eckstein is day-to-day with a strained right calf and will return after the All-Star Break. Chris Young played catch on July 7 and Will Venable will need a minor league rehab to return from back stiffness.
San Francisco (47-41, 4th, W2, 4 GB)
Last Week: 1-6. 4-0 @ Brewers. 2-1 @ Nationals. There is a trio of teams in the NL hovering around a .400 WP% (Arizona, Pittsburgh and Houston). In the next tier (.440-.450), there is the Cubs, Brewers and Nationals. The Giants got healthy against some decidedly weak teams, but considering it was all on the road, and their only loss came against SteKeKn SKaKsbKrK, I tip my cap.
Divisional Change: After a free fall the last two weeks, the Giants made up 3.5 games on first-place San Diego.
This Week: 4 game home series vs. Mets.
You Should Know: Buster Posey is really good.
News: So, the Giants have a young catcher that is pretty good. In fact, Buster Posey recently had the best 10-game stretch of any rookie hitter in MLB history. From July 1-10, Posey smacked 19 hits, collected 13 RBI and hit 6 HR. No rookie ever reached a single one of those numbers in any stretch, let alone all three. Posey followed that up yesterday with a 1-for-3, 2 RBI, 1-run day, 1 strikeout day.
Transactions: Recalled RHP Joe Martinez.
Injuries: LHP Dan Runzler suffered a dislocated kneecap and will be out 6-8 weeks. OF Andres Torres suffered a strained groin, but the injury is minor. He should return soon after the All-Star Break.
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Latos is a beast
But I agree with this analysis. SD is already starting to scuffle. If they have to limit their most valuable pitcher, I can’t see them staying in 1st with 3 teams chasing them. The Padres are on the clock….
Yes, I actually do like cricket. I'm Indian.
"We could have had Jesus on the mound and [the Rockies] still would have gotten hits." -Paul Lo Duca
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Hollidayrain Music
NL West Report: Why the Padres Can’t Win the West
…Part 37
Is that four tacos in your pocket, or are you just happy to see the Rockies scoring 7 or more runs?
by fantasyfencing on Jul 12, 2010 12:12 PM MDT reply actions
hey now
I wrote one titled “reasons why the padres WILL win the nl west”
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 12, 2010 12:28 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
im not ripping you personally
just that everyone (including myself) has been coming up with reasons they wont win the NL west ever since they took the lead in it.
Is that four tacos in your pocket, or are you just happy to see the Rockies scoring 7 or more runs?
by fantasyfencing on Jul 12, 2010 1:19 PM MDT up reply actions
Exactly
Things the Rockies have to look forward to in the second half:
All-Star Shortstop back from the DL
Return to form of #2 Starter
Usual 2nd half bump from Cook (fingers crossed)
Possible return of excellent top 2008 Set-up man
Thing the Padres have to look forward to:
Top 2 pitchers (Latos and Richard) pitching way beyond their previous highs for IP (Richard is at 113 right now, and his previous high was 161 in the minors)
Still not being able to hit
And if you want to include LeBlanc...
His previous professional high was 149 IP in the minors in 2007, and he’s sitting at 92 currently
by Jason Wells on Jul 12, 2010 12:30 PM MDT up reply actions
i forgot to add this link this morning
But buster olney has an insider article out staying that the dodgers have the toughest schedule in the second half in all of ????
This division is seriously there for the taking
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 12, 2010 12:34 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
If you include that for the Dodgers and their pitching woes...
with the Padres that should regress and the Giants not being much better than they are now. All the Rockies really have to do is just play above .500 the rest of the way and the Division is ours. We should be prime for that, barring any issues along the way.
Ubaldo "Iron Arm" Jimenez
Seth Smith’s beard looks on in anticipation.
by Colsportsfan on Jul 12, 2010 1:33 PM MDT up reply actions
Dodgers have 58 games against .500+ teams in the 2nd half.
Rox have 47
Ubaldomania.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Jul 12, 2010 3:45 PM MDT up reply actions
I'd like that difference to be greater.
Seth Smith's beard looks on in anticipation.
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #π
We should not take the Padres lightly
They have lead the division for just about half a season now. They’re the division champs until someone proves otherwise.
Actually, this sounds an awful lot like things people were writing about the Rockies about 3 years ago. We all know that statistical analyses do not do a good job of predicting breakout seasons, which is what the Padres are having (actually, it goes back to about mid-August last year). We won this last series but except for Saturday’s game, but we weren’t exactly dominant in doing so. It easily could have been a sweep, it easily could have gone 2-1 SD. It defitnitely was exciting baseball, and there’s plenty more of that to come.
I’ll cite one statistic:
Padres record since 9/1/09: 69-48
Rockies record since 9/1/09: 69-50
I’m not saying the Padres will win, only that it’s going to be close. ATF is right that the division is there for the taking, but it’s quite possible it’ll be a 4-horse race to the finish. If any team drops off, it’s going to be San Francisco. Fasten your seatbelts, folks!
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~Earl Weaver
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #3
To turn this all into a prediction:
The Padres will not win the division (the Rockies will), but they will be within 5 games of the division lead at the end of the season.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~Earl Weaver
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #3
youre right that stats models cant predict breakout years
In fact, that’s essentially what the first few sentences of the article discusses. This is different from other “padre skepticism” in that it is irrefutable that their biggest breakout player will be taken out of the equation. San Diego needs to get another breakout from someone just to be able to told off the other teams.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 12, 2010 1:39 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
But that could easily happen
See Olivo, Chacin, Herrera, Rodgers, post-DL Hammel
Players have breakouts all the time. For one, the Padres bullpen has been putting up great numbers and should be able to eat a few more innings while keeping their team in the game. For another, you make the point that their marginal loss of WAR from shutting down Latos should be enough to push some Ws into Ls, and you’re right, but then they only need a marginal unexpected increase in WAR from someone else to offset this. I argue that in baseball this is fairly likely to happen. Players step up when given the chance. If they don’t someone else gets the chance. See Rockies post-Tulo injury.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~Earl Weaver
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #3
I would say this much....
if the Padres continue to do what they have done and not get out of its “groove”, I could realistically see them making it into the postseason as the wild card. The Rockies; however, has historically always play well in the second and given the players we are getting back from the DL, I see this team continue to make that true and take the Division.
Ubaldo "Iron Arm" Jimenez
Seth Smith’s beard looks on in anticipation.
by Colsportsfan on Jul 12, 2010 2:01 PM MDT up reply actions
second half*
Ubaldo "Iron Arm" Jimenez
Seth Smith’s beard looks on in anticipation.
by Colsportsfan on Jul 12, 2010 2:02 PM MDT up reply actions
Don't forget, we are 8-4 against the Pads. We've won every series against them 2-1
As long as we take care of business against everyone else (particularly the Dodgers), the Padres won’t win the division, as long as we keep up that kind of pace. If we finish 12-6 against the Pads, the Pads have to outplay us by 7 games versus everyone else, and I just don’t see that happening.
Watching the purple row from high atop the big brown monolith on California Ave
Exactly
We need to do to them what the Dodgers have historically done to us! Like last year, we couldn’t make up the deficit the Dodgers created.
User name pronounced Air-Ah-Miss Originally from my days in the SCA, became a gamer and forum tag because it is odd and it is a name I like
I wouldn't be surprised to see SD open a bit more of a lead right after the ASB
What with the Rockies really tough 11 game roadie coming up. And the Pads get AZ at home to start things off.
Quick edit….shouldn’t the Giants record read 6-1? I know you’re probably used to writing it the other way and stuff.
Brad Eldred: El poderoso burrito
by frightened inmate #2 on Jul 12, 2010 2:03 PM MDT reply actions
True
But considering that it is 11 tough games on the road 6-5 or 5-6 would work just fine. Not really exciting or fun to watch, but enough to keep us going.
Plus every win on the road adds to our position in the “Doug Moe” standings! (Road wins minus home losses) Still my favorite way to see how teams are really doing overall.
User name pronounced Air-Ah-Miss Originally from my days in the SCA, became a gamer and forum tag because it is odd and it is a name I like
Yeah, while I would suffer every loss
If it ended with a 6-5 record I would be fine with it. 7-8 wins great, anything higher would be outstanding.
They aren’t going to win fewer than 6 games so I won’t analyze in that direction.
Brad Eldred: El poderoso burrito
by frightened inmate #2 on Jul 12, 2010 4:08 PM MDT up reply actions
per Rotoworld
Mat Latos might head to the disabled list over the All-Star break. His next start has already been pushed back.
Padres fan site Friarhood.com is reporting that Latos is headed to the DL, but the beat writers have not confirmed it yet. Either way, it’s probably just a roster flexibility move, since Padres manager Bud Black has already talked about pushing Latos’ next start back in order to limit his innings to somewhere between 150 and 180 innings.
Ubaldomania.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Jul 12, 2010 3:47 PM MDT reply actions
almost certainly a roster flexibility move
He can be on the 15 day dl without missing a scheduled start, and the Pads can add an extra bullpen arm or bench bat in the mean time. Ill be curious to see what “ailment” they claim he has.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 12, 2010 4:02 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Inner body injury
Hammel-Chicken wearing USA gear says "booo"
The 09/10 Colorado Rockies: Starring Johnny Herrera as THE ANSWER
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SBNation Denver: Because the Rapids are people too!
by UZ on Jul 12, 2010 9:29 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm sorry, you can't have your cake and eat it
WAR is WAR. You can’t say “they’ll lose 2 WAR but actually that might translate to more than 2 extra losses because of marginal drops in results leading to Ls that would have been Ws”. The whole point of WAR is that that’s exactly what it means. Over the time period concerned, the team will lose two games they’d otherwise have won. You can’t manipulate the semantics to imply they’ll lose more than two.
i didnt guarantee it would work out that way
Just that it is probable. WAR is additive just like any other statistic. The fact that the units is “wins” doesn’t change things.
The whole concept of WAR is that 10 runs equals a win. In a large enough sample, that is essentially true. But the Padres play a lot of low-scoring tight games, putting runs at a premium. That increases the likelihood of one run flipping a W to an L. I’m not sure if I’m describing myself well at all.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 12, 2010 5:47 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
You are, yes
So the argument could be made that instead of 10 runs equating to a win, perhaps 8 runs might? In which case a 2 WAR (20 runs) might actually be a Pads-adjusted 2.5 WAR? Hmm, I could run with that.
partly
Fangraphs does park adjust their WAR values as well, but the chances of Latos’ replacement putting up a 2.60 road ERA is less than slim. Check Latos’ game log. There are more than a few tight road games during Latos’ road starts that an inferior pitcher may have blinked first
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 13, 2010 1:04 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Very nice rundown of the NL West!
I’ll have to come by more frequently!
I’ve been looking in the NL West too lately, and one thing I would point out about SD is that their record is entirely built on their pitching rotation (and of course their bullpen). Their offense is weak, much like the Giants last season. One thing I pointed out was the innings issue, and I didn’t know about SD already limiting Latos. But the bigger issue to me is that neither LeBlanc or Richard are suppose to be that good a pitcher, they are both pitching way above expectations. That plus the innings issue should result in them not performing as well in the second half, plus the fact that their replacements would probably not be as good as they have been performing at.
So, yeah, everyone has been finding reasons for SD to fail and they, to their credit, has been doing it, it’s still a long season to go and their horses that brung them this far look like they should either break down or be shut down.
Also, while SD has 7 guys with OPS+ over 100, two are catchers, and another two just started playing in the majors this season Cunningham and Durango, and I don’t think either will continue at that pace for the rest of the season. Plus, being between 101-110 is not that big a deal. So I would say rather that they have two regulars with OPS+ over 110 and two newly installed regulars over 110.
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jul 13, 2010 1:21 PM MDT reply actions
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