Todd and the Toddlers: Who should go?
(click on image to magnify)
As the traditional trading deadline comes and passes I want to take a look at the Rockies position players and compare their production. Last night’s 8th inning not withstanding, the team has struggled offensively while failing to reach expectations at the plate. Part of the problem is the age of the team. The youth movement of Todd and the Toddlers has passed and who could have known that Todd would have outlasted the Toddlers.
While comparing the positional depth of the organization I chose players that are either in the big leagues or who could help in August or September. Since players are most likely to be making the jump from AA or AAA I chose these levels as my cutoff. The stat of OPS was used because it is standardized and is the most widely accepted. When comparing the different positions the strongest position is in the outfield. Seth Smith, CarGo, Spilly and the resurging Dex are pushing Hawpe into the 1B side where he would be the 2nd highest ranked in that position. Traditionally the corner outfield is a strong offensive producer, but not for the Rockies. With a .835 OPS the catching position is ranked slightly behind the outfield. The middle infield is traditionally a poorer offensive position, however anchored by Tulo and Chris Nelson the Rockies have a fairly deep pool.
So the key is what to make of this depth chart. First Base is a glaring offensive weakness and Giambi is a defensive liability to start. The outfield is very deep with two young players in AAA knocking at the door. One of the outfielders needs to be moved to First, but not who you think. Seth Smith should be moved to 1B to make room for CarGo, Dex, Spilly and either Cole Garner or Matt Miller to be the 4th outfielder. The Rockies need more RH pop and both AAA players fit the bill.
Todd Helton should be shutdown until September when rosters expand. Then the Rockies can get a better feel for how healthy he is without sacrificing a bench spot. Iannetta should be worked into the 1B role as the RH option. McKenry is an option to be called up, but unless a spot on the 25 man roster opens up is unnecessary since Iannetta can still catch. Chris would receive more at-bats in this scenario which he tends to benefit from.
Hawpe and Barmes both need to be flipped for either low prospects or salary relief. Neither player is adding substantial talent to the organization and they are blocking good players. Nelson and Herrera can provide an upgrade offensively while providing average to above average defense.
So in my scenario against a RH pitcher the starting 8 would be: Dex CF, Herrera 2B, CarGo RF, Tulo SS, Smith 1B, Olivo C, Stewart 3B, Miller LF
Against a LH pitcher the starting 8 would look like: Dex CF, Nelson 2B, CarGo RF, Tulo SS, Olivo C, Spilly LF, Iannetta 1B, Mora 3B
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).
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I think you may need to revisit Hawpe. He's doing well defensively at 1B
(yes SSS but still) and he seems to have recovered at long last from his rib injury. His last 3 games he’s been hitting well. I’d say give him another review in about a month….See where he’s at.
"Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!"
Ubaldo,Tulo, Hawpe, CarGo, and Spilly say "Germans?"
"You can learn a lot just be watching" - Yogi Berra(thanks pedalpusher)
QPU Member #4, NYYHEG Member #4, Proud Member PR Gynocracy
Hawpe's defense isn't the problem..
He’s overpriced for his production and makes the team too heavy from the left side of the plate. By moving him the Rockies could save on payroll and receive similar offensive output from Spilly and Matt Miller.
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by Charlie77 on Jul 31, 2010 10:40 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Per Jayson Stark
“#Rockies telling teams they couldn’t trade Brad Hawpe right now no matter what. Might need him to play 1B depending on Helton health #trades”
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 31, 2010 9:37 AM MDT reply actions
Its hard for me to believe the Rays would prefer..
Carlos Pena’s .214 avg over Hawpe at 1B. Also the Red Sox need outfield depth, especially with JD Drew’s fragile body roaming the OF.
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by Charlie77 on Jul 31, 2010 10:47 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
It's not about what the Rays or Red Sox want at this point
What’s most important here is that it sound like the Rockies want to stick with Hawpe. If that’s the case than what the other teams want is irrelevant.
If the 2007 Rockies can win 21 out of 22 to reach the World Series and the 2009 Rockies can come from 12 games under .500 in June to make the playoffs, why can't the 2010 Rockies make the postseason after being 51-50?
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #1
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jul 31, 2010 11:42 AM MDT up reply actions
Are you saying the Rockies should pay Hawpe nearly $4mil..
To play first base part-time the rest of this year? Spilly and Smith are both hitting better and would cost a combined $750k this season. Matt Miller would cost $200k and probably outproduce Brad. This is about what the team ‘should’ do to be better this year and next.
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by Charlie77 on Jul 31, 2010 12:50 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I think you'll be dissappointed
if you count on Miller to outproduce Hawpe. Hawpe has the ability to carry a team with his bat when he’s hot. Miller hasn’t even shown that ability at AAA. Also, you may want to see Smith at first before moving Hawpe to clear a spot for him. If you try to just plug an OF’er into 1st base, it could be a defensive disaster.
Dealing Hawpe would give Smith and Spilly more ABs than Matt..
Although I’m sure Hawpe’s .261 against RH can be surpassed. Miller is averaging .338 against righties in the Springs.
As far as Smith playing first base, I bet he’s no worse than Giambi is defensively.
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by Charlie77 on Jul 31, 2010 3:32 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
The point isn't OF playing time. It's 1B.
We need Hawpe as insurance for Helton. Miller is irrelevant to that aspect.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jul 31, 2010 4:04 PM MDT up reply actions
The Rockies have glaring holes at 2B, 3B and 1B..
3/4ths of their infield are failing offensively. Brad is ok, but realistically he’s the teams 5th outfielder, and when Helton comes back he will be the 3rd first baseman (possibly 4th if Iannetta produces). Ian Stewart’s play isn’t outstanding but he’s young, has a good glove and I trust him to turn it around more than I trust Hawpe. I’m not even going to talk about Mora. Giambi is mostly just there to produce late in games. He can spot start, but ideally not over long periods and is a defensive liability.
The idea is to get the best 8 hitters on the field and Hawpe isn’t one of them. Maybe he could be, and at one time in his career he was the best hitter on the team. However, for the last 162 games Brad has been a .252 hitter.
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This is immaterial at this point
But Helton will start 4 of 6 games when he returns unless he proves a huge liability.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 1, 2010 7:58 PM MDT up reply actions
However, for the last 162 games Brad has been a .252 hitter
Thats a bit of cherry-picking of stats don’t you think? He obviously had a bad 2nd half last year, and has been injured a couple of times this year. His swing is NOT going to come right back to him as he recuperates.
FWIW, he was raking when he hurt his leg, and starting to hit when he banged the wall and was hurt again.
I say keep him, and play him at 1B. He’s a better alternative, right now, than Giambi or Iannetta.
The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.
by rockieprogress on Aug 2, 2010 11:07 AM MDT up reply actions
Todd is probably the guy who needs to move on...
but I can’t vote that that’s what I want to see. Trying to get ready to buy his career-highlights DVD, “Because I am a Rockie”
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
Notorious Hat Liar
"Cheap tacos are rightous!"-My Daughter
Have to Deal with Realities
The team is unsure of Todd’s season (and remember, unless he retires, he is still owed the contract extension money signed this Spring. Hawpe played a solid IB back at LSU, and has looked good so far. And yes, he is one of three guys on the active roster who has shown the ability to carry a team offensively (Tulo and Cargo the others), as he did in 1st half 2009. He appears to be breaking out. Ride him. If it does not work he might be dealable in August, since I doubt anyone will put in a waiver claim on him. And despite the thought that playing 1B is easy, it isn’t something that guys can easily adjust to playing (I do like the idea of giving Iannetta time to learn the trade).
We have talent at the AAA level but I do not think you can say someone is being obviously blocked. No one has forced the team to make room for them (the way CarGo did last year at AAA). The team has struggled offensively this year, but it should not be. Everyone has struggled (aside from Tulo, Olivio and CarGo), and I mean hitting below career levels at various points this season, especially with men in scoring position. They are capable…they just need to perform.
by Doctor Christopher on Jul 31, 2010 3:20 PM MDT reply actions
I really don't get equating Colorado Springs (non-Humidor) with Denver (LOLhumidor)
And any opinion which straight-facedly refers to Jonathan Herrera as an offensive upgrade doesn’t fill me with confidence! (and Miller over Hawpe? You crazy)
Tell me how Hawpe will be better?
Miller has better road and rhp splits.
Road .308/.198
Vs RHP .337/.259
He’s not just an altitude hitter.
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by Charlie77 on Aug 2, 2010 4:23 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
When you can provide me with Miller's stats in the major leagues
Then we’ll have an accurate comparison. To say Miller is a BETTER HITTER than Hawpe is ludicrous.
Miller’s MLE predicts a .710 OPS, barely better than Barmes and quite a ways behind Hawpe
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 3, 2010 7:13 AM MDT up reply actions
Wow, that’s much higher than the .622 OPS predicted for CarGo!
The beauty of minor leaguers is no one knows how they’ll produce until they hit the majors. Matt and Cole Garner have produced at every level, so why not give them a shot?
Look at how Hawpe’s K% is rising as his BB/K is on a steady downslope since 2005.

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Did Hawpe run over your dog or cat or bird or snake or something?:P
You’re relentless. He’s a better option at 1b right now.
"The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball."-Terrence Mann
"You can learn a lot just by watching"-Yogi Berra (thanks to pedalpusher)
"Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?!" Ubaldo, Tulo, Hawpe and Spilly say "Germans?"
QPU Member #4, YHEG Member #4, Proud Member PR Gynocracy
Hawpe is a proven, if streaky, major league former all star
Miller is a solid minor-leaguer with a low ceiling. I’m sure he’d do his best, and we might even benefit from the surge new promotees sometimes have (before they’re figured out perhaps).
Well K rate and K/BB are pretty much mutually inclusive, so comparing those are a little misleading
And that trend is pretty gradual. Fair point on CarGo’s MLE. Of course it is never equivalent to true performance. But you have to acknowledge that CarGo was always a young toolsy raw player. He was never tabbed as a future star because of his minor league stats but because of what scouts saw in him. That’s not a good comp for Miller, because scouts see him as a AAAA player, so the exception does not work. I pointed out the MLE simply to point out that AAA, the PCL and especially Security Service Field drastically skews statistics. If you can find an MLB expert anywhere that expects Miller to be better than Hawpe at any point in their careers, let me know. You won’t find it. There’s a reason he’s been in AAA for so long
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 6, 2010 9:56 AM MDT up reply actions
Additionally, using career MLE's is unfair
You’re comparing a minor league total MLE to a AAA season from a 27 year old in his “prime.” Apples and oranges. That incorporates CarGo’s season in A-ball at 19. Of COURSE his MLE would be dragged down by his early years. 19-year-old raw outfielders would struggle more in the majors. If you want a close closer comparison to whether both would be capable of sticking in the majors, you check this:
2010 Miller, Age 27: .708 MLE
2009 CarGo, Age 23, .817 MLE
One is a lot younger, a lot better, and supported FAR more by scouts.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 8, 2010 9:22 AM MDT up reply actions

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