Wednesday Rockpile: It's Not Good News

Here's the deal, Rockies fans: the playoff outlook is grim thanks to that loss last night. How grim? Well, Colorado probably needs to finish 10-2 (with no more than one loss against the Giants) to win the division. If they go 9-3, the Rockies have a shot at both the wild card and the division (especially if the Phillies keep beating the Braves). Neither of these scenarios are very likely. Of course, going 20-8 since being 62-60 wasn't very likely either, so there's that.

Here's what needs to happen though: If the Rockies lose to the Diamondbacks again in the next two games they will need to sweep the Giants to even threaten them for the division. Colorado really needs to be saving a loss or two for their road set in St. Louis to close out the season, wherein good pitching could easily defeat Rockies road hitting.

Jason Hammel's dead arm sure isn't going to help their chances if they need to shuffle the rotation (though Esmil Rogers isn't a half-bad option to replace Hammel). Nor is CarGo's power-sapping tendonitis.

Two things remain squarely in the Rockies' favor: their series with San Francisco at the moment gives Colorado the ability to make up ground quickly on the Giants, and the fact that the Braves (three up on the Rockies in the Wild Card) still have four games against the Phillies (who are finally turning into the juggernauts many predicted they would be at the start of the season). My guess though, is that next week when I write the Rockpile I won't be writing about playoff scenarios any more. I sincerely hope that I'm wrong on that point.

Playoff odds: BPro 15%, SCStats 10%

Before yesterday's action Fangraphs' Dave Cameron handicapped the NL West race.

On the positive side, Tulo is a MVP bargain -- but we already knew that. If Tulo didn't play another game for the Rockies (perish the thought), he would still be worth his contract.

Humidor Links

I know that this was discussed heavily yesterday, but here's some commentary on the humidor "controversy". Rob Neyer makes some good points about why there is suspicion while Patrick Saunders calls the humidor complaints sour grapes. Which is excellent.

ESPN Insider Articles

Why Roy Halladay has the edge in the Cy Young race (Eno Sarris) -- hint, it's not rate stats

Why the pitching win is basically meaningless (Keith Law)

Power Rankings

CBS asks some pretty valid questions (Rockies 6th) while SBN talks about bats (7th).

Look for Beyond the Boxscore's Rockies offseason contract tender list as well as the latest installment of the PuRPs list (10-6) later this morning.

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