Fall 2010: Top 30 PuRPs Polling Thread

I just need to sleep on it a bit. I got to tell you, that 4-20 is a jumbled mess of interchangeable parts.

writing a Fanpost for Scott Beerer this time.

So, I think he is still eligible for this list. At least, that is how I understand the rules.

Players on the last Purp list who no longer qualify are…
Chacin, Rodgers, Balcom-Miller, and Eric young jr.

is Darin Holcomb still part of the organization?

… especially trying to rank players like Garner and Miller now that we have to consider both as potential departures from the organization this season.

1. Wilin Rosario, C
2. Tyler Matzek, LHP
3. Christian Friedrich LHP
4. Chris Nelson SS
5. Nolan Arenado, 3B
6. Kyle Parker OF
7. Rex Brothers LHP
8. Peter Tago RHP
9. Rafael Ortega OF
10. Hector Gomez SS
11. Chad Bettis RHP
12. Juan Nicasio RHP
13. Josh Slaats RHP
14. Eliezer Mesa OF
15. Tim Wheeler OF
16. Thomas Field 2b
17. Charlie Blackmon OF
18. Michael McKenry C
19. Matt Reynolds LHP
20. Jordan Pacheco C
21. Albert Campos RHP# Ben Paulsen
22. Corey Dickerson OF
23. Josh Rutledge SS
24. Delta Cleary OF
25. Will Swanner C
26. Casey Weathers RHP
27. Ben Paulsen 1b
28. Wes Musick LHP
29. Joe Sanders 1b
30. Parker Frazier RHP

I haven’t even drafted a list yet. In my mind, the top three (Matzek, Rosario, Friedrich, not necessarily in that order) are fairly clear.

The next tier is fairly clear as well; I’d slot Blackmon, Brothers, Nicasio, Arenado, Bettis, Parker, Tago, and Ortega… I might throw Dickerson, Swanner, and Campos in with this group toward the back end.

Where I have trouble is with the third tier, separating out the MLB-ready marginal talents from the guys with good numbers in the low minors (but questionable tools) and from the tools guys in the low minors with questionable skills.

Inexperienced but I have been thinking about this for a while. I think I might have been “to far away from potential” heavy but heck it is IMO afterall. Yes the last one is hope against all odds ;)

1 Tyler Matzek, LHP
2 Christian Friedrich, LHP
3 Wilin Rosario, C
4 Hector Gomez, SS
5 Nolan Arenado, 3B
6 Peter Tago, RHP
7 Kyle Parker, OF
8 Chris Nelson, SS/2B
9 Chad Betts, RHP
10 Rafael Ortega, OF
11 Charlie Blackmon, OF
12 Tim Wheeler, OF
13 Juan Nicasio, RHP
14 Eliezer Mesa, OF
15 Jordan Pacheco, C
16 Rex Brothers, LHP
17 Casey Weathers, RHP
18 Matt Reynolds, LHP
19 Michael McKenry, C
20 Albert Campos, RHP
21 Ben Paulsen, 1B
22 Josh Slaats, RHP
23 Delta Cleary, OF
24 Thomas Field, SS
25 Corey Dickerson
26 Will Swanner, C
27 Samuel Deduno, RHP
28 Cory Riordan, RHP
29 Jared Clark, 1B
30 Greg Reynolds, RHP

are 130 at bats, 50 IP, or 45 days on an MLB roster. September service time does not count toward rookie qualifications, but September at bats and innings do.

Weighted for minor league performance over reputation/publiclity, as I like to do. Therefore I don’t know what to do with guys like Parker & Wilson who aren’t really playing yet. I just stick them in theresomewhere.

1. T. Matzek
2. C. Nelson
3. N. Arenado
4. R. Ortega
5. J. Pacheco
6. W. Rosario (doubts about serious injury)
7. C. Dickerson
8. C. Bettis
9. K. Parker
10. T. Field
11. C. Friedrich (did not have a good year)
12. E. Mesa
13. H. Gomez
14. R. Brothers
15. C. Weathers
16. W. Swanner
17. B. Tanos
18. C. Laurent
19. J. Slaats
20. B. Paulsen
21. B. Billings (as a reliever)
22. J. Cesario
23. A Jorgensen
24. P. Tago
25. A. Nina
26. J. Clark
27. T. Gagnon
28. R. Wilson
29. M. Miller (just in case he catches on with another team & becomes a ML player)
30. C. Garner (ditto)

1.. Tyler Matzek
2. Willin Rosario
3. Christian Friederich
4, Chad Bettis
5. Nolan Arenado
6. Kyle Parker
7. Rafael Ortega
8. Peter Tago
9. Chris Nelson
10. Rex Brothers
11. Charlie Blackmon
12. Tim Wheeler
13. Juan Nicasio
14. Jordan Pacheco
15. Will Swanner
16. Corey Dickerson
17. Casey Weathers
18. Michael McKenry
19. Hector Gomez
20. Josh Slaats
21. Albert Campos
22. Eliezer Mesa
23. Joshua Rutledge
24. Thomas Field
25. Jerald Clark
26. Ben Paulsen
27. Samuel Deduno
28. Matt Reynolds
29. Cole Garner
30. Kiel Rolling (pure hometown vote here)

1. Tyler Matzek: Has had a wildly effective season, with a boatload of walks, but little production against. Considering his age, I will dismiss it for now. But he will drop if it continues next year
2. Wilin Rosario: He has a big league bat, which will almost assuredly translate to the next level. He also has a great arm. Question is though, if he will move to 1B. He does have some questions defensively, has a knee problem, and catcher is an organizational strength.
3. Christian Friedrich: Injuries have pretty much made this a lost season. When he was healthy and in a groove, he did pitch well, so I’m not concerned.
4. Chris Nelson: He is the best prospect we have who will contribute next season. Huge year for the Sky Sox, and looked good in minimal play for the Rockies. Still some questions about production at the major league level, and health.
5. Charles Blackmon: Ok, I have to admit that I am much higher on Blackmon than most of you. However, I feel that he is the best combination of potential and distance to majors. In him, I see a solid, toolsy outfielder who should get major league playing time.
6. Nolan Arenado: Arenado drips with potential. He is arguably the best bat in the system, since Parker has yet to actually play.
7. Rafael Ortega: Huge year at Rookie ball, first time in the states. Tools are dripping from this guy. He sweats screwdrivers. He has a ton of polish and should move up the system very quick. I have a feeling he will be top five in the next list.
8. Corey Dickerson: I am a lot more impressed with Dickerson than most. I feel that he is being underrated by some. He is having an equally impressive season at rookie ball as Ortega is, yet he isn’t getting the love. Yes, he is a few years older, but Ortega has also spent more time in our system. I see yet another toolsy, polished outfielder who will move up the system very quick.
9. Tim Wheeler: Top pick, but has had a rough year. Not too bad though. Just wanted to see more out of him. Look for him to rebound next year.
10. Chad Bettis: Bettis is hard to get a read on. Some believe that his stuff translates better to the pen. The Rockies started him off the bat, and in a short few months, he has taken the lower levels by storm. If he doesn’t start, his stock falls, but if he keeps this up as a starter, he will rise very quickly in rankings.
11. Hector Gomez: Tools are everywhere, unfortunately he has a screwdriver lodged in his elbow, and a hammer doing some bad work to his body. Is point, he may be a lost cause, but his is still young.
12. Jordan Pacheco: Almost certain to be a major leaguer, but most likely not a starter. This is a case where I will choose floor or ceiling.
13. Rex Brothers: Looked amazing, but hit a brick wall in Tulsa. Still, he projects to be a back of the pen pitcher, it will just take him a bit longer to reach the bigs now.
14. Peter Tago: High end prep pitcher, just drafted and has yet to see action, and probably wont till next year. He should be good though.
15. Ben Paulsen: Don’t know why, I just feel good about him. Odd pick for me.
16. Juan Nicasio: Good stuff, but has only had one elite year, and has moved up the system at a snails pace. Should reach the bigs sometime in 2020.
17. Michael McKenry: Very low floor, but projects as a defensive backup catcher. Still valuable.
18. Matt Reynolds: Should be a mainstay in the Rockies pen next year. Projects to be a 7th inning guy.
19. Casey Weathers: Looked good coming back from injury, but hit a wall harder than anyone else has. Who the hell knows about Weathers, he still has potential, but that is about all that is working for him now.
20. William Swanner: Smacking rookie ball pitching around so far, but I’m not sure if he has yet to take a pitch, Could rise very quickly, but I would like to see a bit more from him.
21. Albert Campos: Good season, decent stuff. Again, need to see more before I move him up.
22. Kyle Parker: So, Parker. You all know I did not like this pick. I didn’t feel like he was the best available at that pick, and I don’t feel he is worth the risk. But, he does have the best power in the system, I just hope he doesn’t take too much of a beating on the gridiron.
23. Cole Garner: Old, MiLB free agent. Could be in the running for backup outfield position next year. Beyond that, I don’t know. I’m lazy, and don’t want to comment on the rest.
24. Eliezer Mesa
25. Samuel Deduno
26. Kiel Roling
27. Ethan Hollingsworth
28. Delta Cleary Jr.
29. Bruce Billings
30. Parker Fraiser

1. Tyler Matzek, LHP
2. Wilin Rosario, C
3. Christian Friedrich, LHP
4. Charlie Blackmon, OF
5. Kyle Parker, OF
6. Rafael Ortega, OF
7. Nolan Arenado, 3B
8. Chad Bettis, RHP
9. Peter Tago, RHP
10. Rex Brothers, LHP
11. Juan Nicasio, RHP
12. Will Swanner, C
13. Corey Dickerson, OF
14. Albert Campos, RHP
15. Josh Slaats, RHP
16. Chris Nelson, IF
17. Hector Gomez, SS
18. Michael McKenry, C
19. Tim Wheeler, OF
20. Cole Garner, OF
21. Jordan Pacheco, C
22. Samuel Deduno, RHP
23. Eliezer Mesa, OF
24. Matt Reynolds, LHP
25. Casey Weathers, RHP
26. Parker Frazier, RHP
27. Ben Paulsen, 1B
28. Thomas Field, SS
29. Cory Riordan, RHP
30. Chad Rose, RHP

I didn’t follow the minor leagues as closely as I have the past few years. No real reason, I guess, I just didn’t scour the box scores as much. Therefore, this is a list where I would probably re-order the bottom 15 if you made me do it again tomorrow. But the top 10 I feel pretty solid about.

1. Tyler Matzek
2. Wilin Rosario
3. Esmil Rogers
4. Christian Friedrich
5. Nolan Arenado
6. Chris Nelson
7. Peter Tago
8. Charlie Blackmon
9. Chad Bettis
10. Juan Nicasio
11. Rex Brothers
12 Hector Gomez
13. Rafael Ortega
14. Kyle Parker
15. Tim Wheeler
16. Jordan Pacheco
17. Corey Dickerson
18. Ben Paulsen
19. Albert Campos
20. Josh Slaats
21. Cole Garner
22. Thomas Field
23. Edwar Cabrera
24. Josh Hungerman
25. Delta Cleary
26. Erik Stavert
27. Matt Reynolds
28. Michael McKenry
29. Bruce Billings
30. Ethan Hollingsworth

Apologies to any Dominican Summer Leaguers (I don’t rank them, I feel like there’s just no telling how they’ll react upon coming to the States so they are a bit more volatile stock in my mind), most relief prospects (not as much room for them but I do like Ricky Testa, Coty Woods, Kraig Sitton and Chad Rose), and, as always, Matt Miller, who is not a prospect.
28.

1. Wilin Rosario, C
2. Hector Gomez, SS
3. Tyler Matzek, LHP
4. Rafael Ortega, OF
5. Peter Tago, RHP
6. Charlie Blackmon, OF
7. Nolan Arenado, 3B
8. Chad Bettis, RHP
9. Chris Nelson, SS/2B
10. Eliezer Mesa, OF
11. Jordan Pacheco, C
12. Corey Dickerson, OF
13. Albert Campos, RHP
14. Thomas Field, 2B
15. Matt Reynolds, LHP
16. Kyle Parker, OF
17. Josh Slaats, RHP
18. Will Swanner, C
19. Rex Brothers, LHP
20. Christian Friedrich, LHP
21. Ethan Hollingsworth, RHP
22. Cole Garner, OF
23. Samuel Deduno, RHP
24. Michael McKenry, C
25. Bruce Billings, RHP
26. Juan Nicasio, RHP
27. Tim Wheeler, OF
28. Casey Weathers, RHP
29. Rosell Herrera, IF
30. Matt Miller, OF

1. Tyler Matzek
2. Wilin Rosario
3. Christian Friedrich
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Peter Tago
6. Kyle Parker
7. Hector Gomez
8. Rafael Ortega
9. Charlie Blackmon
10. Juan Nicasio
11. Chad Bettis
12. Chris Nelson
13. Rex Brothers
14. Michael McKenry
15. Will Swanner
16. Casey Weathers
17. Tim Wheeler
18. Corey Dickerson
19. Jordan Pacheco
20. Albert Campos
21. Matt Reynolds
22. Cole Garner
23. Josh Slaats
24. Bruce Billings.
25. Samuel Deduno
26. Ben Paulsen
27. Eliezer Mesa
28. Joseph Sanders
29. Thomas Field
30. Delta Cleary

I put these prospects into a tiered system. My list is pretty projection-heavy but is much higher on position prospects than last year’s list, including several young Latin American players. Overall I think the system is much deeper this year (though the departure of Chacin and Rogers leave it a little low on potential star power):

Tier I — Elite
1. Tyler Matzek — needs to improve walk rate, but has shown elite stuff
2. Christian Friedrich — presumably will return from injury with plus command, secondary pitches
3. Wilin Rosario — the hope is that he still has his power stroke when the ACL heals

Tier II — Highly Projectable
4. Nolan Arenado — performance in Sally at age 19 (early) almost had him up a tier, defense is big concern
5. Chris Nelson — great 2010 performance when finally healthy, will opportunity for PT be there?
6. Rafael Ortega — amazing Casper performance, can he sustain momentum in Asheville?
7. Hector Gomez — outstanding tools, but will he ever be healthy?
8. Charlie Blackmon — he’s hit at every level, will be top AAA prospect to watch if Nelson is in MLB
9. Peter Tago — loose arm action and great movement, lots of projectability
10. Kyle Parker — plus power, hit tools but football commitment and lack of refinement complicate matters
11. Chad Bettis — breakout player of the 2010 draft and could be quick mover, value falls if he goes back to bullpen

Tier III — Solid
12. Juan Nicasio — great performance this year, but I want to see him succeed at a more age-appropriate level
13. Will Swanner — fantastic power surge in limited Casper stint has me excited
14. Albert Campos — the most impressive Casper pitcher, I am very excited to see him at Asheville
15. Jordan Pacheco — hit very well at two levels, has improved defense
16. Corey Dickerson — 8th round pick performed quite well in Casper, will be part of talented Asheville outfield
17. Tim Wheeler — poor year at the plate sends stock tumbling, but there is still time to improve
18. Casey Weathers — still has closer potential and will get opportunity to shine next year
19. Rex Brothers — fast-moving relief prospect with likely future set-up/closing role
20. Ben Paulsen — great hit tool, if power develops he shoots up this list

Tier IV — Average
21. Thomas Field — showed great patience at plate and surprising power, could rise if he sustains improvement
22. Matt Reynolds — polished lefty has pitched well in Rockies’ bullpen, but that’s really his ceiling
23. Joshua Slaats — I want to believe in the great strikeout rate, we’ll see how he does in the Sally
24. Bruce Billings — the ex-starter is now Rex Brothers-lite as a relief prospect
25. Mike McKenry — likely MLB backup catcher in the near future
26. Delta Cleary — could put together prodigious tools at any time (and he’s still young), but will he?
27. Cory Riordan — more advanced pitching prospect with back of the rotation potential
28. Cole Garner — hopefully he’ll get a chance this September to show what he can do, could leave in the offseason
29. Eliezer Mesa — great performance this year, excellent speed tool
30. Rossell Herrera — not a great season in the DSL, but he could be next year’s Ortega

The IV tier extends to include about 15 more players, with the top five of those being: Samuel Deduno, Alving Mejias, Ethan Hollingsworth, Parker Frazier, Mike Zuanich

1. Top of the Class

1. Tyler Matzek
2. Wilin Rosario
3. Christian Friedrich

Not much to explain here. Friedrich hit his first major hurdle in his skyrocketing development, but it isn’t a significant enough to concern to drop him from the top tier, especially after it lost Chacin and Rogers. How he responds next year will determine any significant changes in placement for him. Matzek’s first season has done nothing but encourage me. Rosario’s breakout season was shortened by his ACL injury, but the message got through. He deserves to be up here now.

2a. Near Top Value Prospects

4. Chris Nelson
5. Chad Bettis
6. Charles Blackmon
7. Rex Brothers
8. Nolan Arenado

These are the non-elite but almost entirely positive players that can’t fit into the top tier, but shouldn’t be dropped out of the top ten. With the exception of Bettis, these are arranged by about how close they are to making a major league impact (Brothers could probably switch with Blackmon too if I were going only off that). I have Bettis ranked fifth (probably higher than most) because of a few reasons, the most significant of which I think was his very quickj adjustment into A ball. Bettis hit the ground running with both Tri-City and Asheville, and I think that’s the sign of a player who could be put on the fast track. I think he’s done enough to separate himself from the question marks, but others can and probably will disagree, and consider him part of the lower group. Nelson is not really a top 5 prospect in an ideal talent-based list, but he’s going to be an impact player in the very near future and his season has been impossible to ignore. Blackmon and Brothers are close (~2 years), and Arenado has had more than enough time to differentiate himself from the below list.

2b. The “Hype” Players

9. Peter Tago
10. Rafael Ortega
11. Hector Gomez
12. Kyle Parker
13. Corey Dickerson

Here is a series of highly praised players across the scouting community who haven’t had a chance to show what, say, what Bettis did to me in terms of forming an identity. Tago and Parker, of course, haven’t played yet, while Ortega and Dickerson are too early in their careers for me to outright accept the results yet. If either of them had been promoted into A ball this year and kept going, they’d be up where Bettis is. Gomez, of course, showed extreme promise in the time he got this year, but he continues getting injury after injury. These players are arranged mostly by my level of excitement for them.

3. Variety of Valuable B-Grade Talent

14. Matt Reynolds
15. Mike McKenry
16. Jordan Pacheco
17. Juan Nicasio

These four players fit together because they’re an amalgam of various talents who have shown a consistent success on some level, but their value to the organization right now is insignificant compared to those above them. In other words, they’re good enough to be in the first half of this list, but they’re not superstars (yet). Reynolds and McKenry got priority for being close to MLB impact, while Pacheco and Nicasio will both have great chances at breaking into the top 10 with continued play. Pacheco’s success this year probably gives him an argument to be places higher than this. I’m not ready to do that, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him up much higher in a future list. Nicasio is keeping pace, which is good enough to keep him afloat for now, but he loses value due to his counting down option clock.

4. Prospect Purgatory

18. Samuel Deduno
19. Tim Wheeler
20. Thomas Field
21. Casey Weathers
22. Ethan Hollingsworth

A good way of describing this set is “players in transition”. Arguments could be made for them to go in either the upper or middle class prospects area and as a result, they reside in purgatory. Deduno and Wheeler are on the decline in this list (Deduno’s getting old and Wheeler isn’t distinguishing himself), Field and Hollingsworth on the way up (both emerged from some degree of anonymity with good years, but can only propel themselves into the upper class with some repeat performances), and Weathers is back pitching but not necessarily well yet (he’s settled in better, but is still having the occasional meltdown).

5. Sorting Through the Details – The Upper Middle Class

23. Cole Garner
24. Edgmer Escalona
25. Will Swanner
26. Matt Miller
27. Jared Clark
28. Eliezer Mesa
29. Kiel Roling
30. Cory Riordan

Here’s where we hit the more arbitrary players that fill out the list, ones that could be almost interchangable with players #31-#36 or so. Garner and Miller are both eligible for free agency, and I can’t justify putting them higher in value when they may not get a chance to see 2011. That said, both players have continued to show success at AAA, and I feel they both deserve a spot on this list somewhere for now. Escalona had a TERRIBLE introduction to AAA, but has been an incredibly solid reliever in the second half. He’s got to stay on the radar. Swanner is a passion pick, “the guy I want to see break into the upper class”, hence why he got a few extra points up over other Ghosts or Dust Devils, like Campos, Slaats or Wilson. Clark is widely considered to be a possible A level peak guy, but the guy’s combination power and bat control this season have been impossible to ignore. Roling has fallen a long way, but I don’t feel comfortable excluding him because of one bad year. But he’s “on notice”, so to speak. Mesa is the “toolsy” pick of the list (my alternative to most people’s Delta Cleary love, while Riordan beats out the afroementioned youngsters, Chaz Roe and fellow Drillers Keith Weiser and Bruce Billings for the final slot.

Extra 15 just for clarification on where the others fell.

31. Josh Slaats
32. Bruce Billings
33. Albert Campos
34. Keith Weiser
35. Delta Cleary
36. Ben Paulsen
37. Chaz Roe
38. Parker Frazier
39. Adam Jorgenson
40. Wes Musick
41. Mike Zuanich
42. Angelys Nina
43. Ryan Casteel
44. Josh Rutledge
45. Juan Perez
This list does not include anyone from this year’s DSL team alone, as I am too unfamiliar with it to make deteminations based upon it.

1. Tyler Matzek
2. Wilin Rosario
3. Christian Friedrich
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Peter Tago
6. Rafael Ortega
7. Chad Bettis
8. Kyle Parker
9. Charlie Blackmon
10. Juan Nicasio
11. Hector Gomez
12. Rex Brothers
13. Chris Nelson
14. Will Swanner
15. Corey Dickerson
16. Casey Weathers
17. Tim Wheeler
18. Michael McKenry
19. Jordan Pacheco
20. Bruce Billings
21. Matt Reynolds
22. Cole Garner
23. Josh Slaats
24. Parker Frazier
25. Eliezer Mesa
26. Ben Paulsen
27. Ethan Hollingsworth
28. Rosell Herrera
29. Thomas Field
30. Delta Cleary (though I hate putting him on this list)

1. Tyler Matzek
2. Christian Friedrich
3. Wilin Rosario
4. Chris Nelson
5. Nolan Arenado
6. Rafael Ortega
7. Chad Bettis
8. Charlie Blackmon
9. Rex Brothers
10. Kyle Parker
11. Juan Nicasio
12. Peter Tago
13. Will Swanner
14. Jordan Pacheco
15. Albert Campos
16. Corey Dickerson
17. Ben Paulsen
18. Mike McKenry
19. Thomas Field
20. Josh Slaats
21. Hector Gomez
22. Casey Weathers
23. Tim Wheeler
24. Cole Garner
25. Matt Reynolds
26. Jared Clark
27. Russell Wilson
28. Bruce Billings
29. Craig Baker
30. Parker Frazier

1. Tyler Matzek
2. Wilin Rosario
3. Christian Friedrich
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Kyle Parker
6. Peter Tago
7. Charlie Blackmon
8. Chad Bettis
9. Chris Nelson
10. Hector Gomez
11. Rex Brothers
12. Rafael Ortega
13. Juan Nicasio
14. Corey Dickerson
15. Tim Wheeler
16. Cole Garner
17. Will Swanner
18. Jordan Pacheco
19. Albert Campos
20. Casey Weathers
21. Josh Slaats
22. Thomas Field
23. Matt Reynolds
24. Michael McKenry
25. Bruce Billings
26. Tyler Gagnon
27. Eliezer Mesa
28. Delta Cleary Jr.
29. Rossel Herrera
30. Johendi Jiminian

1. Tyler Matzek
2. Nolan Arenado
3. Ethan Hollingsworth
4. Peter Tago
5. Rex Brothers
6. Juan Nicasio
7. Charlie Blackmon
8. Christian Friedrich
9. Chris Nelson
10. Thomas Fields
11. Willin Rosario
12. Jordan Pacheco
13. Bruce Billings
14. Mike McKenry
15. Eliezer Mesa
16. Adam Jorgenson
17. Ben Paulsen
18. James Cesario
19. Jason Van Kooten
20. Jared Clark
21. Avery Barnes
22. Wes Musick
23. Matt Reynolds
24. Casey Weathers
25. Tim Wheeler
26. Cory Riordan
27. Albert Campos
28. William Swanner
29. Cory Dickerson
30. Rafael Ortega

I have real concerns with Friederich and Rosario’s injury. Christian’s elbow problems could set him back for a couple of years and a knee injury is a difficult thing for a catcher to overcome. I also have a problem with putting our first pick on this list when he’s not fully committed to play for the organization. Starting QB in the ACC can be a dangerous combination.

Alright, here are my top 30 prospects. The first number is what I estimate as a projected seasonal WAR ceiling based on scouting reports, other well informed opinions and statistics to date. The second number would be more indicative of what I feel is a realistic quality "floor" of what would happen if they came in on the lower end of where they’d be useful to the Rockies. For all minor leaguers there’s a floor of completely missing the MLB and I don’t put any floor as less than one, some of these players could be merely replacement level.

1. Tyler Matzek 5+/1.5/2013 – He’s still the pitcher with the most potential in the system, but make no mistake, the season he’s had has brought up plenty of question marks. I’ve got confidence that he’ll provide some happy answers for us to many of those in 2011. I hope it’s not just wishful thinking.

2. Christian Friedrich 4+/1/2012 – Similar to Matzek, Friedrich’s season has been a mixed bag (at best) but it really hasn’t done all that much to damage how I view his potential in the realistic range, even if it cut off some pie in the sky hopes for him. If he struggles again in 2011, that’s when he’ll start sinking in the rankings.

3. Wilin Rosario 3+/2/2012 – ranked higher than the WAR ceiling would indicate just because catcher’s an expensive and difficult position to fill to get even that amount via free agency. The lost six to nine months of development due to a torn ACL hurt him, and I possibly should have docked him in the rankings for that.

4. Nolan Arenado 4.5+/2.5/2013 Along with Ortega, has what I see as the highest productive floor of any player in the system. It’s really difficult to see them as anything less than starting level bats if they just continue their development at a normal rate.

5. Kyle Parker 5+/drop/2013 – That ceiling sure looks rosy while he hasn’t swung a bat professionally, but a realistic view of Parker would see more of a Brad Hawpe/Seth Smith type of player (I can see why Aberle doesn’t like him) than a Matt Holliday. Still, that Holliday level would be what we’d be talking about if everything breaks right for us.

6. Chris Nelson 3+/2/2011 – I like Nelson a lot, I don’t know what the organization plans for him, though.

7. Rafael Ortega 5/2.5/2013 The power is what’s going to cap his ceiling, but it’s also been the most encouraging aspect of his year in Casper, as he displayed that he has enough that he can move to a corner and still be an asset. The bat is so polished that it’s hard to find a comp for him. The last two teenagers to hit as well as he has in the Pioneer League, Caleb Gindl (OF Brewers) and Francisco Hernandez (C White Sox) lacked even the modest offensive (I know, five wins is an All-Star, but that’s taking a rosy defense outlook into account as well) projection that Ortega has, while those prospects that did have similar ceilings never showed this kind of early refinement. Adding that refined bat to his speed, as I mentioned above, I feel Ortega has as high a floor as any player in the system; this is saying a ton for a player at the rookie level.

8. Charlie Blackmon 4+/1.5/2011 I think it’s possible that Blackmon could be the system’s third best outfielder by midsummer 2011. He’s a much better prospect than typically given credit for by the mainstream.

9. Hector Gomez 5+/drop/2011 Everybody is knocking him down because of the frequent injuries and just the fact he seems to be more or less a ghost in the system. You can’t ignore the talent, however, and the fact remains that he’s been refining it slowly.

10. Chad Bettis 4+/1.5/2013 He’s really looking like another Jason Hammel type of pitcher to me with a less developed breaking pitch but a more potent fastball. If anything he’s underrated by the mainstream, and they really like him.

11. Albert Campos 4.5/1.5/2014 Alright, I’ll admit I may be ranking Campos this high as much on what he doesn’t yet possess (but could) as what he does, but youth, a projectable frame, two potential out pitches and an otherwise outstanding performance at Casper all bode well for him. His ceiling’s not as high as Tago’s but unlike Tago, he’s already laid the groundwork for a pretty decent floor.

12. Peter Tago 5+/drop/2014 Like Matzek, Tago competed and thrived in the country’s most challenging high school environment. Add in the scouting reports and there’s really no reason to dock him for not pitching at Casper this year.

13. Juan Nicasio 3.5/1/2012 Nicasio’s probably ranked too high by me given his limited ceiling, but I think he’s also one of the most likely in this list to live up to his potential.

14. Will Swanner 4+/1/2014 Swanner’s HR rate at Casper rivaled or passed those of Ian Stewart and Rosario when they were there. The downside is that his K rate (28/68 AB’s ended in whiffs) easily eclipsed them as well, and neither has exactly been known for keeping their K’s down. Swanner has to make more contact to get near a top 10 status for me, as he’s only going to face trickier pitchers from here on out.

15. Corey Dickerson 3+/1/2013 Dickerson’s an enticing mystery. His numbers at Casper were solid enough to make him a legitimate prospect to watch in 2011, but given that he’s 21 years old, there’s also a strong possibility that they’re unsustainable at higher levels, or that there’s less to build on than what you have with Ortega or Swanner. 2011 will be important in letting us know what we really have with him

16. Rosell Herrera 4.5+/1/2014 I’m going to be a lot higher on Herrera than anybody else, but I feel that the experiences of Ortega, Rosario, Angelys Nina, Carlos Martinez, Cristhian Adames and a couple of other prospects have taught me how to better evaluate the performances of Rockies DSL players. Plus given the best media coverage ever in the period before 2009’s international signing deadline, we actually had video of Herrera’s swing and got an idea of how athletic he was, and both of those aspects have me excited still. IIn short, what he did as a 17 year old at the academy this summer does nothing to dissuade me that he has a potential All-Star level bat at any position.

17. Rex Brothers 2/1/2011 I rate relievers low because of that limited impact at their ceiling, but Brothers is as solid a bullpen arm as there is in the system and I would say ranks as the most likely of this list to have five full seasons with the Rockies.

Brothers would also be the last player on this list that I’m comfortable seeing a potential All-Star or contention level performance (top five in the league at their position) in any MLB season. While prospects below this point may have that potential in them, there are usually plenty of reasons to be dubious that will ever be the case.

18. Cole Garner 3/1/2010 I think Garner’s ready to stick in the majors in a bench role.

19. Will McKenry 2/1/2011 McKenry also is ready to stick in a bench role, but might be better served in the long run with more AAA seasoning next year.

20. Jordan Pacheco 2.5/1/2012 A strong AFL could see him pass McKenry on my list.

21. Delta Cleary Jr. 4+/drop/2014

22. Ben Paulsen 3.5/drop/2013 If Paulsen makes it to the MLB as a first baseman, and he has that potential, it will be because he’s very very good. There’s a pretty good chance that his career could go John Lindsay, however. The same is true to lesser extents of several other corner/first base prospects in the system who I’m not going to rank but deserve mention like Jared Clark, Kent Matthes and Mike Zuanich.

23. Thomas Field 2.5/1/2013 Field’s a good example of why you shouldn’t automatically dismiss prospects on the wrong end of the age relative to league scale. The ceiling’s going to be boring, but there’s often a greater likelihood of this type of player reaching and contributing to a major league club than you might realize. Think Jamey Carroll, Will Harris, Craig Counsell, heck Clint Barmes (albeit Field’s a more disciplined hitter) the ceiling is a David Eckstein type, but the floor is a useful pinch hitter/runner/defensive reserve.

24. Josh Rutledge 3/1/2014 Potentially another Field, a couple of levels behind, though.

25. Jimmy Cesario 2.5/1/2013 The same type of player, less defensive utility, however. Really solid contact skills.

26. Eliezer Mesa 2.5/1/2014 Same thing, only the outfield version. These players are getting ranked over the higher potential next tier because of their more stable floor.

27. Ryan Casteel 3+/drop/2015 He’s sort of in the same boat as Dickerson, it’s just a bit trickier to judge him. In one way he should be higher if I’m ranking him as a catcher, but he should be lower if he’s going to wind up as a 1B/DH type. In the end I decided to waffle and split the middle.

28. Matt Reynolds 1.5/1/2010

29. Josh Slaats 3+/drop/2014 He fell a lot more on my list than I expected him to, sort of like a player that drops in a draft and I’ll admit I could be underrating him here given his starter potential. I likely hesitated because of the strong possibility he winds up a reliever. In which case, he’d rank below Bruce Billings, Samuel Deduno and Casey Weathers, who aren’t even going to make the top 30.

30. Cristhian Adames 3+/drop/2014 The only reason I rank him lower than Field and Rutledge is still what I see as a relatively high drop potential compared to those two, but given the higher ceiling, next year at this time he should be ahead of them if all goes well at Asheville.

31. Alejandro Barazza 3+/drop/2015 I’ll be the one to say that he has as much potential as Slaats at least, and I really do see them as this close to each other in talent/likelihood of reaching it.

31. Parker Frazier 3/drop/2013

32. Bruce Billings 1.5/1/2011

33. Cory Riordan 2/drop/2012 A bottom of the rotation pitcher candidate, I’ll throw in Tyler Gagnon and Josh Hungerman among others at this talent level as more or less interchangeable.

34. Casey Weathers 2/1/2012 -

35. Alving Mejias 3+/drop/2015 Somewhere around here would also be Johendi Jiminian, Raul Hernandez and Jayson Aquino. Higher upsides than the BOR candidates above, but they’re considerably higher drop risks as well.

About Dickerson “His numbers at Casper were solid enough to make him a legitimate prospect to watch in 2011.” His numbers in Casper are downright amazing, and I would say his numbers are better than Ortega’s. Consider he is 4th in OPS in that league, and has an OPS 100 points better than Ortega. I think I would call them something better than “solid enough”

First post here, very excited! I love talking about prospects and young players, in any sport. Just couldn’t help myself from posting on this one.

Tier 1:

1. Tyler Matzek

I put Matzek in his own tier just because I think he’s the only player in our system that has true elite-superstar type ability.

Tier 2:
 
2. Christian Friedrich
3. Wilin Rosario

No surprises here. A little sad Friedrich didn’t dominate this year like last year and Rosario’s injury is certainly upsetting. However, they both combine high potential with high probability at positions of scarcity.

Tier 3:

4. Chris Nelson
5. Kyle Parker
6. Peter Tago
7. Nolan Arenado
8. Chad Bettis
9. Charlie Blackmon
10. Will Swanner

I put much higher value on higher ceilings/athletes vs. minor league performance/higher floors in prospect ratings and this tier is where that becomes apparent (its probably also why I favor systems like the Phillies over the Twins). Also, I still have a man-crush on Chris Nelson so please forgive me.
 
Tier 4:

11. Hector Gomez
12. Rafael Ortega
13. Albert Campos
14. Tim Wheeler
15. Rex Brothers
16. Casey Weathers
17. Rosell Herrera

Really more of the same as tier 3 but I think the probability of these guys actually reaching their ceilings is lower. I also stuck our two relievers (Brothers, Weathers) in here because while relievers have less value than starters, I’d rather have high level relievers than low level starters which I believe is all we have left after this tier.

Tier 5:

18. Josh Slaats
19. Juan Nicasio
20. Sam Deduno
21. Bruce Billings
22. Corey Dickerson
23. Ethan Hollingsworth
24. Ben Paulsen
25. Matt Reynolds

Really my “floor” tier. I think you can find average/back end rotation/bench players anywhere so I don’t really value them very highly. That’s not to say they’re of no use though, anybody who can contribute while making peanuts has value. There’s also some interesting guys in this tier who could make for pretty good relievers, I just don’t think they have the pure stuff that Brothers/Weathers have to make it to the previous tier.

Tier 6:

26. Jordan Pacheco
27. Cory Riordan
28. Cole Garner
29. Mike McKenry
30. Eliezer Mesa

To be honest, I’m just filling out my ballot at this point after reading what people have said about these players. Realistically, my depth of knowledge about our prospects ended right at the end of the previous tier.

Thanks! That was tons of fun!