FanPost

Could Seth Smith be a Super 2?

 

There are articles on here that do a very good job of relaying information of the status of the players on the Rockies. I have also seen detailed descriptions of how different MLB rules work on this site. I was recently trying to figure out who was going to be a Super 2 arbitration eligible player. The rule being: Super Twos come from the group of players who have between two and three years service time and at least 86 days service time the previous year. The 17% of those players with the most service time become Super Twos. COTs didn't seem to have a listing of who would be eligible in 2011 yet so I did a little research on what it would look like. Hopefully I was able to take into account all the transaction dates right and service times accurately.

John Lannan (Was) 2.179

Felipe Paulino (Hou) 2.163

Jim Johnson (Bal) 2.161

Kyle Kendrick (Phi) 2.155

Ian Stewart (Col) 2.154

Luke Hochevar (KC) 2.151

Sean White (Sea) 2.151

Jamie Garcia (StL) 2.147

Armando Gallaraga (Det) 2.145

Brian Badenhop (Fla) 2.140

Ross Ohlendorf (Pit) 2.139

Chris Perez (Cle) 2.136

Alberto Gonzalez (Was) 2.135

Jay Bruce (Cin) 2.125

Chase Headley (SD) 2.123

Brad Ziegler (Oak) 2.122

Nyjer Morgan (Was) 2.120

Seth Smith (Col) 2.119

Jensen Lewis (Cle) 2.118

Brian Burres (Pit) 2.111

Manny Acosta (NYM) 2.110

It seems there really wasn’t getting around the fact that we would have to go to arbitration with Ian Stewart. What I was surprised about is how close we came to having to go to arbitration with Seth Smith as well. If I did this right the list should end with Brad Ziegler, as the last 2 years there have only been 16 Super 2’s. Unless there was a serious increase in the players in this class Ian Stewart will be our only Super 2.  More on the financial flexibility after the jump.

I think just about everyone right now is looking to the off-season and I wanted to have a quick look at how the money looked for the upcoming season.

Starting Lineup:

Iannetta 2.55M

Helton 19.1M (13.1 deffered) 6M (4.6M bonus) 10.6M

Young Jr. 400K~

Stewart 3.5M

Tulowitzki 5.5M

Gonzalez 400K~

Fowler 400K~

Smith 400K~

Bench:

Spilborghs 1.95M

Nelson/Herrera 400K~

Olivo 2.5M

Starting Rotation:

Jimenez 2.8M

Chacin 400K~

Cook 9.25M

Hammel 5M

Bullpen:

Street 7.3M

Betancourt 3.775M

Reynolds 400K~

Daley 400K~

Morales 400K~

Rogers 400K~

Belisle 2.5M

Corpas 3.5M

Total 64.725M

C - I think that Iannetta stays around for at least half the year with the possibility of a deadline trade based on performance. Olivo is probably going to be around too and I think that a 4/3, 5/2 split in playing time in favor of Iannetta is the way to go. Despite performances by both I think this should be stuck with for at least a month or two. Either way catcher may not be a strength for us next year.

1B - Like or not Helton will be here next year in some capacity. I really hope he learns to work with what he’s got right now and to figure out a way to be successful at the plate. A good platoon partner wouldn’t hurt either.

2B - I think the organization wants to give EYJ a chance though most likely they will be looking at three options for second base next year with Young being the front runner, Nelson being given a hard look and Herrera there as the steady hand in case neither can do the job. I think Herrera becomes the backup to whoever wins and the loser has to spend some time in the Springs

SS - Is there any question.

3B - I think Stewart is the starter next year with an arbitration case settled with him signing at about 3.5M, I use Cantu’s case in 2009 as a main comparison and other third baseman’s cases from last year.

OF - Gonzalez/Fowler/Smith seems the most likely setup with Spilly subbing in.

Bench - Spilly, Herrera and Olivo to start as mentioned above.

Starting Rotation - Ubaldo, Chacin and Cook are locks for the rotation in my opinion no one else should be. Hammel could cost 5M in arbitration, 7M for Francis’ option, and who knows how much DLR will go for on the open market. If we can unload Cook’s salary it would be nice but it doesn’t look likely, though who knows he could be a really solid, really expensive 5th Starter. We should look at the market and see if Hammel is cost effective or not before offering arbitration though he could be the best we can get at 5M, hell Francis could even be useful at 7M.

Bullpen - Street and Betancourt are nice when on, Reynolds looks to be a solid lefty, Daley and Rogers can be effective righties, Morales as an extra lefty/mop-up, and hopefully Belisle at a decent rate in the neighborhood of 2-3M/yr 2-3 years. Bullpens should never be set but it is nice to have a semblance of one to start the year.  It is a shame that dead money from Corpas is still hanging around.

Financial Status: If this year was any indication at 84M we have 20M to work with to fill a starting rotation spot, an outfielder and an 1B/3B type. I even think ownership might increase payroll even further this year to somewhere near 90M, just a gut feeling.  This could mean O'Dowd could dabble in the higher dollar free agents potentially or at least I hope so.  I am going to take the fact that we have 20M or more to spend on potentially 3 spots (unless the club wants to upgrade mutiple positions), to make the case that I think we could make a play at either Lee or Crawford for between 17M-20M a year for 5 years as long as the bidding doesn't get out of hand.  I think especially if we are thinking of bringing back DLR at Ollie Perez type money 3/36M we should spend the extra dollars to get an extremely solid lefty in Lee.  Maybe the ownership is ready to make a big statement about what they want to accomplish next year.

Some of this is redundant information that will probably be available in a more detailed and well written article, but I was curious about the Super 2 status and what kind of financial flexibility we would have next year. I wrote a little more than I was initially planning to, but hopefully it will spark some discussion on the off-season as our current season has become prematurely boring.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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