Thursday Rockpile: What the smart analysts aren't saying about the Rockies (but should be)
by Rox Girl on Sep 9, 2010 8:47 AM MDT
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PrintSo before yesterday's blowout of the Reds, Carlos Gonzalez and his quest for a triple crown began to draw some serious media scrutiny:
- Jayson Stark and Rob Neyer of ESPN
- Joe Posnanski
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs
These are some serious heavyweights of the Internet baseball reporting world, representing both old school and new school media. While all bring up good points, there are also some common themes to the articles:
- that Carlos Gonzalez is a very good player.
- that he has some big home/road splits that might justifiably keep him from getting the MVP (pending the rest of the regular season).
- that Rockies fans in the comment sections have a serious chip on their shoulders.
The last point stems from years of being denied attention by the mainstream (rightfully, when we had a bad team) and a sense that the Rockies somehow simply aren't getting fair recognition now that they're a good team. You'll note that Rockies fans in these comments seem to be split, whether it's Pony (use that nickname, Posnanski) or Ubaldo that's getting the shaft. The real answer is that it's neither.
Where these analysts really are being negligent and doing a disservice to baseball fans is by refusing to publicly acknowledge a point that has become clear in the last two years:
The Rockies have the most valuable pitching staff in the major leagues.
Unfortunately, there's no award for this, no recognition beyond what the media is willing to dish out, and that's where the negligence comes in. While we've seen said media extolling how fierce the Yankees lineup is, seen them note how several of the low payroll contenders are using top of the MLB defense to fuel their runs, seen them show how the White Sox and Braves (and just this morning, the Twins) are using their collective staffs to fuel their playoff hopes, nobody's come out and said what the advanced metrics are showing.
And this is a problem. Why? Because in the absence of a reasoned voice explaining why the Rockies are having so much success, we're seeing more and more tinfoil humidor conspiracies spring up (side note: read this fascinating article about the reduction of HR's that a humidor creates and why it might have a bigger impact on the D-backs than it does the Rockies.) The masses outside Colorado seem to know that something's missing from the equation:
- Carlos Gonzalez + X = Rockies home field advantage
This is how they're filling it in:
- Carlos Gonzalez + cheating = Rockies home field advantage.
If somebody that they trust would just help them out a little, this is how they should be filling that gap:
- Carlos Gonzalez + BAMF pitching staff = Rockies home field advantage
- BAMF pitching staff - Carlos Gonzalez = Rockies road disadvantage
As the sweep over San Diego at PETCO last week showed, when the Rockies have both Gonzalez and their pitching on the road, they're just as potent. Instead, unfortunately, we don't get that. We get articles like this, from FanGraphs' Joe Pawlikowski that state that for the Rockies to make it to the playoffs:
...they're dependent on a lot of lucky breaks. Jhoulys Chacin will have to make a few more starts like his six-inning, two-run performance last night. Aaron Cook needs to finish strong after a generally poor season. Carlos Gonzalez will have to continue his mashing taters. Essentially, multiple players will have to get hot at the same time and sustain that production for a few weeks.
Notice how the implication is that Chacin, who has been pitching all season at a more effective rate than any rookie starter not named Strasburg (more effective per inning than Latos, even, who's not a rookie) will have to be "lucky" to win out this year. Notice how Aaron Cook's "generally poor season" is almost on a par in FanGraphs value with that of Jair Jurrjens (1.7 WAR to 1.5) who some writer told us was back to form in July. Cook is more valuable than any other NL team's fifth best starter, heck, he is more valuable than all but three NL teams' (Braves, Astros, Giants) fourth best starters.
So if we had an Internet media with the guts to trust what the numbers are telling us and say "The Rockies have the best pitching staff in the National League, and the most valuable staff in the majors," there probably wouldn't be as much an issue with them telling us that Carlos Gonzalez isn't carrying the Rockies right now as much as it appears, as much as Joey Votto carries the Reds. The reason Rockies fans have this chip on their shoulders is because there's a clear double standard that writers use to devalue our team, and it's making us defensive as we have to combat the nutjobs that think there's this grand cover-up of some shenanigans in a humidor in LoDo.
What's rotten, though, isn't coming from Denver or Denmark, it's coming from the denizens of the media.
***
The bad news from last night is that Votto broke Cook's leg. Even though the fracture is relatively minor, this could never be considered a good thing, but because the Rockies pitching staff is so deep, and the most valuable in the majors, Jeff Francis and Esmil Rogers are both ready to assist.
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and here is more verb (gar)bage from Neyer:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/5222/do-the-writers-hate-colorado
we've been trying to get that word out for a couple of years now to no avail
You get laughed at.
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
well they laughed at Isaac Newton
when he said a man would walk on the moon.
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 9:09 AM MDT up reply actions
but he was dead when that happened
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
That apple
really crushed him…
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
I did it.
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
Neyer's money quote:
Since then (ASB), though, Jimenez has gone 3-5 with a 3.98 ERA
I looked up his starts since then, here are his five losses:
7/24 vs PHI: 2 IP, 6 ER (yeah, probably deserves that loss)
8/10 vs NYM: 7 IP, 1 ER (he probably got lucky)
8/21 vs ARI: 6 IP, 3 ER (this is a quality start in name only)
8/27 vs LAD: 7 IP, 3 ER (one more inning than a quality start)
9/1 vs SFG: 8 IP, 2 ER (but this was in AT&T, should be discounted heavily…pitchers park)
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 9:21 AM MDT up reply actions
what an idiot.
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
no, Ubaldo is a bad pitcher.
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
he is the luckiest most unsustaniable pitcher ever.
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
sorry, i just had a few minutes and couldn't look up all the other stats.
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 9:24 AM MDT up reply actions
Am I in the minority here about Neyer being right?
I mean, there are some points I disagree with (that the writer’s have been voting right about Coors), but Halladay and Johnson have pitched better this year. Jimenez is still a top 5, even top 3 NL pitcher right now, but not the best.
It could have been a much better written article and I would’ve appreciated more examples and his take on CarGo.
The 2010 Colorado Rockies: We may have lost the battle, but not the war. It ain't over till it's over.
Halladay and Johnson Latos
Fixed.
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
he's right about Ubaldo, and his take on Cargo is linked above in my post
Again, like I say there, Rockies fans themselves are missing that the recognition we should be getting but aren’t isn’t with any individual player, it’s with the entire pitching staff as a unit.
This x1000
I am completely comfortable with Halladay winning the Cy. He has been better than Ubaldo. And Votto probably deserves the MVP over Cargo. But that’s an entirely different issue from the general-to-complete dismissiveness of the Rockies, because the writers just can’t help themselves. If they didn’t have double standards, they wouldn’t have any standards at all.
not as punny as SDcat00
Am I the only one who thinks Adrian Gonzalez should win the MVP over Cargo or Votto?
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #1
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Sep 9, 2010 9:55 AM MDT up reply actions
Yes
Because I think the Pads success this year can be attributed at least as much to their pen. And because when the Rox have played the Pads this year, A-Gone’s pretty much been gone. Maybe he’s rampaging the rest of the league, but I haven’t seen those other games.
not as punny as SDcat00
Well his number are not quite as good as Votto's (.922 OPS) but he's doing that in the most pitcher friendly park in all of baseball
Add in the fact that Gonzalez is a MUCH better fielder than Votto and that Gonzalez is the only hitter other teams fear when they play the Pads as opposed to Votto who is protected by a very good offense and I think there a strrong case for Ganzalez.
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #1
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Sep 9, 2010 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions
actually, I think it probably should be Zimmerman.
then Votto, then CarGo, then Adrian.
I still feel that there’s enough to be skeptical about defensive metrics with Rockies outfielders to fully buy into the idea that Gonzalez has negative value out there.
Why Zimmerman
He’s hit fewer home runs than any of the other three, has a lower OPS than any of the other three, gets on base less then any of the other three, and plays for a team that’s completely out of it.
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #1
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Sep 9, 2010 10:25 AM MDT up reply actions
I do trust FanGraphs' infield defensive metrics.
And don’t really think that it’s fair to penalize players for the mistakes of their front office or coaches or what have you. Zimmerman’s simply a very valuable part, and without him the Nationals would be looking at another #1 draft choice next year.
I think voters will decide between Votto and Cargo ultimately, because they’re on the contending teams, but I think all three players are right around the same tier.
Without Adrian the Pads would be in 4th place
Instead they have the fewest losses of any team in the NL. He is getting shafted because he hits in a pitcher’s paradise.
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #1
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Sep 9, 2010 10:38 AM MDT up reply actions
so is Zimmerman.
I’m not actually shafting Adrian because of that, I just think his park adjusted offense plus fielding puts him at the Matt Holliday level and not quite with the others. Pujols is in between.
Adrian has everything working against him though
1) His park is even more pitcher friendly than Zimmerman’s so he is hurt by this.
2) Adrian has nobody to protect him in that lineup. Votto has Scott Rolen (.885 OPS) Bruce, Philips, Gomes, and Stubbs (all of whom have already hit 15 home runs each) surrounding him in the lineup, Zimmerman has Adam Dunn and his annual 40 home runs hitting behind him, Pujols has Holliday, and Cargo’s had Tulo (at least since Tulo came back from his injury which is when Cargo really took off). Who does Adrian have? I think he deserves a huge amount of credit for this.
3) Adrian is getting hurt by UZR in comparision with the others. While Zimmerman is loved by UZR, he is only a +3 in total zone and has made 15 errors this year, more than all but three NL third baseman. ( I think Zimmerman’s great on defense, I just don’t buy that he’s more than 10 runs better than Adrian) Also, UZR likes Votto’s defense better than any other defensive metric does which is driving up his Fangraph WAR score.
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #1
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Sep 9, 2010 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions
Here's something that has me wondering, though
if the Reds weren’t running away with the NL central, would Votto be another CarGo? Team’s playoff contention/participation seems to have so much to do with these things…
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
Chief Engineer of the Ubaldo Lovers Club
Proud Member of the PR Gynocracy
by Rox the Casbah on Sep 9, 2010 12:08 PM MDT up reply actions
I guess that's why I should look at all the links in the Rockpile -___-
He’s wrong in that AGone won’t get any recognition, but again, he didn’t really explain too much why. Also, what happened to watching a player with their eyes to evaluate defense? UZR probably kills him for some flaw that they believe is way too important, but compared to other outfielders I’ve seen, CarGo has to be one of the most fluid I’ve ever seen. Neyer ignores that and just goes to the metrics. Ugh.
The 2010 Colorado Rockies: We may have lost the battle, but not the war. It ain't over till it's over.
And that's why the MVP award isn't simply a computer based "Highest WAR Award"
If you’re going to award MVP based just on highest WAR, then let’s just end the whole voting process for all awards. GGs to the UZR winners. Cy to the pitching WAR leader, etc., etc. And then, hell, let’s just determine playoff participants by highest team WAR.
Nevermind, we can just shut down the game and settle it all the best number way possible, Strat-o-Matic. We don’t even need to play the actual games.
not as punny as SDcat00
This reminds me...
You need to e-mail me at the addy in my profile…I got yer ticket for Saturday…
Unfortunately, it’s upper deck reserved. Muzia’s coming, too. My guess is we probably spend most of the day watching from the concours instead. U325, so it’s not far from home plate at all, just high up….
not as punny as SDcat00
Yeah but with the way some of these SABR analysts are thinking
They’re doing exactly that.
The 2010 Colorado Rockies: We may have lost the battle, but not the war. It ain't over till it's over.
I'm sure you meant to say APBA
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
Bazinga!!
by Junction Rox on Sep 9, 2010 11:10 AM MDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think I posted something about that on his first Cargo article.
Is Holliday worth more than an additional run over Cargo just based on defense? I think not, and I doubt many people would. I like the idea of UZR, I just think it’s severely flawed.
Defensive metrics are a notoriously tricky thing to put into mathematic terms.
You have to decide what an athlete “should” be able to do on defense as a standard, which is inherently subjective.
The thing he failed to adress though
is why do our hitters get penalized so heavily – while our pitchers don’t get very little credit for playing half their games at coors?
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
Because its too difficult to look at both sides of an issue?
They’d rather just fix “Good Rockies hitter=LOLCOORZ” and not think about pitching at all.
Because "journalists" are, by and large, lazy
Doubly so, if they work for ESPN.
not as punny as SDcat00
by Mondogarage on Sep 9, 2010 9:51 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
But they likely
have degrees in the area so they can do stuff like be lazy.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
and get press passes.
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
I didn't know they gave degrees for douchiness
If so, Bobby Valentine and John Kruk should be addressed by their proper titles, “Doctor”
not as punny as SDcat00
what do you think I went to school for
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
But you haven't graduated yet
As they say, “Neyer went full douchetard. Never go full douchetard.”
not as punny as SDcat00
I'll have my journalism degree shortly.
I plan on a lot of laziness for the next 40 or so years.
Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.
Bear Naked - My thoughts on sports, music, and life.
by Bryan Kilpatrick on Sep 9, 2010 10:56 AM MDT up reply actions
Neyer did not really answer the question fully
He answered within the realm of individual players getting individual awards. I disagree that there are only two to three examples in club history where that is relevant on the hitting side, but he is correct on the pitching side. Jason Jennings won a ROY in a weak rookie class, but no Rockies pitcher has come this close to deserving the Cy Young. It isn’t so much the writers that feel Rockies away stats are the “true” stats, it is ignorant commenters. Thus, the double standard there doesn’t apply to writers regarding Ubaldo per se. So in that way, Neyer is right.
What he failed to address is the adjustment for team statistics. Home/road splits for the Rockies and their individual hitters seem forever intertwined, but that same relationship absolutely IS NOT represented by writers outside of Colorado. Be it from ESPN, Beyond the BoxScore or Fangraphs, there is no shortage of reminders to discount offensive numbers for the team and its players. But I don’t remember any about pitchers. It isn’t about individual awards. Its about respect, accuracy and consistency. Accusations of favoritism are fully deserved in any field if those three qualities do not exist.
I remember pointing out last season on BtB that the Rockies staff had the best WAR in MLB and was met with “do you REALLY believe that’s accurate” and “unsustainable” quips. The SABR community is so quick to point of Ubaldo’s rank outside the top 5 in FIP, but suddenly the reliability of that stat on a larger sample size is irrelevant?
The person who emailed Neyer did not cite specific examples, but they most certainly exist
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 9, 2010 9:54 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Short answer: yes.
Long answer: yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssssssssssssssssss.
Is that four tacos in your pocket, or are you just happy to see the Rockies scoring 7 or more runs?
by fantasyfencing on Sep 9, 2010 9:31 AM MDT up reply actions
Coors Field=steroids.
That has to explain it.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
Don't forget the unicorns!
LoDo Magic, Tulo's Mullet or The Ghost of Seth Smith's beard - call it what you will but it is neither unimpressive or unsustainable!
2010 Rockies - It can happen!
Ha! That's how they get those neat patterns mowed into the grass!
LoDo Magic, Tulo's Mullet or The Ghost of Seth Smith's beard - call it what you will but it is neither unimpressive or unsustainable!
2010 Rockies - It can happen!
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Maybe you did. But the full sponsor reads “Purple Row—Read and Learn sponsors this page”
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 9:05 AM MDT reply actions
AMart did that, I believe.
It’s set to expire also.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
I like to learn.
And read. that is why I am here.
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
I'm here to read and learn
and to share the joy of hot dogs with others.
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
We’re all glad that you share your knowledge…
I still believe...
This is R year!
by prettyinpurple on Sep 9, 2010 9:24 AM MDT up reply actions
I like the Rockies.
And I like reading about the Rockies. Learning is fun too, when its about the Rockies-
Oh, reminds me, break over, time to get back to school (trig trig trig).
I will try to stop in the Game Thread at lunch…
Until then: Go Rockies!!!!!
I still believe...
This is R year!
by prettyinpurple on Sep 9, 2010 9:33 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Awesome article RG
I wish these so called “professional” sports writers/commentators took half time time you do before they speak/write. Every one gets it wrong occasionally, but I find it hard to excuse laziness. Particularly the form of laziness they fall into, which is accepting “conventional wisdom”.
I have decided to stop banging my head against the wall when the talking heads dismiss the Rockies or their better players for LOLCOORZ effect. Instead, I sit quietly, knowing their dismissal will ultimately lead to them looking like asses.
But you rightly point out that ignoring the performance of the Rockies pitching staff since 2007 is criminal and hypocritical.
Bleed purple
Most salient quote ever
The reason Rockies fans have this chip on their shoulders is because there’s a clear double standard that writers use to devalue our team, and it’s making us defensive as we have to combat the nutjobs that think there’s this grand cover-up of some shenanigans in a humidor in LoDo.
What’s rotten, though, isn’t coming from Denver or Denmark, it’s coming from the denizens of the media.
not as punny as SDcat00
The "God on the Mountain" article about Cargo illustrated some points about how our offense is affected on the road
but indirectly brought up an issue with our home pitching that nobody has talked about yet. We all know that a fly ball in Coors is going to travel farther than a ball hit with the same velocity at sea level. That, coupled with the huge outfield, leads to more extra base hits. However, that’s not the only factor affecting the Rockies. All pitches, and fastballs in particular, have less movement at Coors. This means that Ubaldo’s greatest weapon is significantly less effective here, and there will be a ripple effect through his whole arsenal. He uses more breaking pitches to compensate for the decreased effectiveness of the fastball, but it’s harder to locate breaking pitches (at least, I think that’s why 3-1 counts usually mean fastball). Now when he falls behind in the count, he has to come back with a fastball, which will be more of a meatball because it has less movement.
Not only will Ubaldo be affected at home, but he will face a similar challenge to Cargo and the rest of the hitters on the road: adjusting to the increased movement. When Ubaldo is throwing his fastball for a strike, he has to account for the movement in order to hit the zone. If the amount that the pitch moves changes from one start to another, it will be very difficult for him to consistently throw strikes. Again, when he’s behind in the count, he’ll have to take something off and become more susceptible to giving up a well hit ball.
Early in the season the SABR crowd said his numbers were unsustainable because of the xFIP discrepancy and the low BABIP. When his ERA inevitably rose, they were smug and felt their dismissal of Ubaldo’s performance was confirmed. However, I think there is yet another effect here: in April and even May, the temperature in Colorado is much cooler than it is from July through August. With temperatures in the 60’s, the air density at 5280 is much closer to the air density at sea level. Thus, in the early part of the season the adverse Coors effect wasn’t hurting Ubaldo as much. At the temperature warmed up, it became more significant, and was surely a part of Ubaldo’s rising ERA.
I’m not saying that what he was doing at the beginning was entirely sustainable, but his performance was dismissed more than it should have been, and when it got worse for factors beyond his control, the stats crowd just attributed it to their own correct assessment from the beginning.
by RoxnSox09 on Sep 9, 2010 9:49 AM MDT up reply actions 5 recs
I agree with a lot of this.
I don’t think we can blame Ubaldo’s decline wholly upon Colorado weather, though.
I mean, to my eyes, he clearly isn’t pitching quite as well as he was those first few months. His velocity and command have both decreased somewhat as the year has gone on. (Which is only natural, given how many innings he’s pitched)
But still, this was an excellent post, and something that a lot of people fail to consider. I hadn’t really thought of it that way either.
His velocity has varied
but I would not say it has made any significant movement downward. He hit 99 within his last ten pitches in the last start.
Bleed purple
Now, I haven't been able to watch Ubaldo's starts too closely.
And I know he can still light up the gun on a fastball.
But it seems to me that he was working at a much higher average velocity earlier in the season; I remember his fastball would consistently sit at 96-98 through the first two months of the year.
Now it seems like his fastball more or less sits at 93-95 unless he really reaches back to get something.
He lived at 96-98 in the last start
but there have been starts like those you describe.
Bleed purple
Oh, really? I've been looking for it and I must have missed it.
Then again, I didn’t see too much of his last start, so if he did that’s an encouraging sign.
I had started getting worried about the drop in his velocity-wasn’t sure if it was a conscious choice he made to get more command or something more worrisome.
Like I mentioned below, I've been worried about his shoulder for about half the season
especially when he started to have some really bad command in June.
Some data
So maybe we’re both right. There is obvious regression in velocity at Start #10, but from that point forward, it looks pretty stable to me. And his last start had good velocity.
There also appears to be some regression in fastball command, but nothing too dramatic.
Bleed purple
That was what I liked most about the last start
He could command 96-98. Velocity has never been a problem for Ubaldo. Or at least, throwing with velocity. The problem is that as the season has worn on, he’s had a hard time commanding anything above 95 where he wanted it, thus giving up lots of walks. I remember when I went to the game in July, I noticed he was in the 93-95 range for the first few innings and was throwing an awesome game. When he warmed up, the velocity got up in the 96-98 range a lot more, but they were almost all balls. That got him into trouble.
I don’t know what he’s done, or if he can keep it up, but it seems at least moderate command of the >95 heat might be back.
Perhaps a problem is
Hitters are so intimidated by Ubaldo they simply lay off any pitch they don’t get straight down the middle. So whereas with other pitchers they’d be swinging at more marginal/corner-painting balls and strikes, with Ubaldo they just leave ’em, hence more walks.
there is definitely something to this
intimidation + his rep for wildness. That’s what I’d generally say to my team (especially in a close game) facing him: “don’t get yourself out. Sit dead red, and wait for it, and let him walk you if he wants to be cute.”
I totally agree.
Weather is only one factor, and even if he were pitching in a neutral environment I don’t think he could have kept it up with the workload he was given. (This is one of my biggest beefs with Tracy.) Even apart from the ridiculous pitch counts, he was due for some degree of regression.
Wow, excellent post. You raise some very intriguing possibilities here
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
So when Rocktober rolls around and the air is cool Ubaldo will dominate.
QED
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
You know it's funny, I used to like Rob Neyer
It’s unbelievable how he normally uses statistics to make his point, EXCEPT for talking about Rockies pitching. His refusal to talk about the Rockies pitching staff in an educated and informed manner really drives me crazy now.
like almost anyone
including (perhaps particularly so) the SABR community, use of stats is a great weapon to make a point you want to make, and easy to ignore when it goes against your view.
Too bad I'm not an ESPN member, because I couldn't post this:
If the writers are not collectively biased, on what basis can they continue to devalue and disparage Colorado Rockies’ hitters while completely ignoring the fact that the Colorado Rockies have the most valuable pitching staff in the entire major leagues (as measured by WAR), and have had so for the past two seasons: http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=6&season=2010&month=0
Where are all the articles talking about how wonderful the Rockies’ pitching staff is, performing at their level while playing half their games in such a tremendous offensive ballpark? It’s not just Ubaldo Jimenez, it’s the entire staff. And not even just for this season.
To quote a writer at the Purple Row, “The reason Rockies fans have this chip on their shoulders is because there’s a clear double standard that writers use to devalue our team, and it’s making us defensive as we have to combat the nutjobs that think there’s this grand cover-up of some shenanigans in a humidor in LoDo.”
The double standard is simply being dismissive of Rockies hitters, yet not applying the same “LOLCOORZ” to standard to underscore how tremendous the Rockies’ pitching staff has been.
not as punny as SDcat00
by Mondogarage on Sep 9, 2010 9:39 AM MDT reply actions 2 recs
I will post it for you.
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
dancin hot dog?
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 9:41 AM MDT up reply actions
how did you guess?
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
had an inkling.
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 9:49 AM MDT up reply actions
I bet he knows before I do.
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
but of course good sir.
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
And I can't believe how bad the article at fangraphs is on Cargo
For some reason, he has totally missed the boat, and is equating runs to wins in a poor fashion. The real analysis should be on run differential – an incremental run is worth nearly if not exactly the same in a 11-10 game or a 5-4 game. If the average run differential is the same at Coors as other parks, incremental runs (like RAR) are worth nearly the same. Am I missing something here?
BTW, looks like I'll have an extra ticket for Saturday's game
Rox Fever wanted me to get one, and he hasn’t been around to let me know how to contact him to get him his ticket (and his e-mail addy isn’t in his profile).
If you’re interested in a $12 ticket to Santo Ubaldo Day (and Santo Ubaldo t-shirt day), send me an e-mail (in my profile), and if Rox Fever doesn’t get in touch with me by noon Saturday, it’s yours.
Rock on.
not as punny as SDcat00
I've just been busy at home and work.
Unfortunately the wife came down with something Tuesday night, but I will be going on Saturday.
No no, that's *totally* cool....
….just need to work out a way to get the ticket in your hands on Saturday, since I plan on showing up early enough to get my Ubaldo t-shirt, and may well not be in my seat much, and dunno what you look like or whatev. When you e-mail me, I’ll e-mail you back my cellphone # so that you can call me whenever you get to Coors, and I can just meet you and give you the ticket. It’s all good.
not as punny as SDcat00
No problem
I was actually thinking about this earlier today as well. Which was the main reason I’ve decided to say, “Screw it, work be damned. I’m going to PR.” That and the afternoon ball game. Also, where on your page is your e-mail. I didn’t spot it.
Oh heck, it's not there...here it is
mondogarage at gmail dot com
Today, I’m “screw it, work be damned, I’m going to Coors Field”.
not as punny as SDcat00
Weird, not yet.
Leaving in about 20 mins for the game, but will certainly check e-mail later
not as punny as SDcat00
What offends me is the rather old guard east coast condescending
attitude that is implied “We know better about your park than you do” and use the “authority” of being a long time “baseball” writer. Which as we all know means absolutely nothing. Combine that with a horrible lack of National TV games and National coverage and you get people who make assumptions based on very outdated information and extrapolate it upon current Rockies teams.
So it’s the “we know better than you” attitude that’s really infuriating.
"If there's a new way....I'll be the first in line. But it better work this time...." Peace Sells....but Who's Buying
Proving that you can be gay and not like Madonna, and rock out to Metal. .
Quitter's People United Member # 78
They can't help themselves. East Coast, yo
This goes precisely to my complaints yesterday about the lack of national broadcasts. First, you (meaning ESPNFOX/etc) don’t show us to everyone, and then you allow your writers to continue to dismiss us out of willful ignorance that you helped to engender and eff the Dodgers.
not as punny as SDcat00
Regardless of what happens with the Rockies this year
this has really proven that the media will go out of it’s way to discount Rockies based on their laziness. Which is more inexcusable than straight out bias
"If there's a new way....I'll be the first in line. But it better work this time...." Peace Sells....but Who's Buying
Proving that you can be gay and not like Madonna, and rock out to Metal. .
Quitter's People United Member # 78
Which is why we (the fans) need to be vociferous in our defense of CarGo and Ubaldo..
Make these East Coast guys look up a counterpoint metric. Because if we’re not being loud in our defense of our players than no one else will be. We should take offense whenever CarGo is not mentioned as a MVP a candidate and the same goes with Ubaldos CY Young. We know how special these players are, more than anyone and we must spread the Gospel.
There is a glass ceiling in place keeping Rockies players from being recognized. Its the result of LOLCORZ! and not playing in the ALEast. We must break through that ceiling!!
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by Charlie77 on Sep 9, 2010 12:23 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
shouldn't cargo win the MVP
for being paid a relatively paltry sum of $406,000?
Oh wait, I didn’t realize Votto wasn’t a big money guy yet either. ESPN has him at $525,000.
My point is still valid! :P
Things that make me happy right now:
- I get to watch a Triple Crown contender play for the team I follow. That’s rare and really cool, even if unlikely, and even if inflated by LOLCOORZ.
- I get to watch Ubaldo pitch several more times this year, and Ubaldo is amazing, whether he’s the best pitcher in the NL or not.
- For the next seven games, every Rockies win means advancing against the Padres and/or Giants. (Not thinking about the corollary to that.) Hooray for meaningful baseball in September.
- I get to watch the best pitching staff by WAR… and that staff involves what, 8 different starting pitchers and a bullpen that was missing a closer for months? Yay depth.
- The defense is really good at turning double plays, and they’re fun to watch, too.
- I like the intra-team competition for Best Smile in Baseball.
Not bad, given that the team has been declared dead for what, three weeks now? Yay, zombies.
"Are they called the Rockies because they rock?" - 7 y.o.
by glaucophane on Sep 9, 2010 10:01 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
We really need to hire a professional coroner next time.
These hacks we’ve been bringing in clearly aren’t cutting it.
Zombies are so hot right now.
I still hate this team, by the way. Stupid heart vs. brain conundrum
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
I bought his rockies fandom
for 5 dollars and a hot dog.
"Ninety feet between a hot dog and my mouth is too far" - Maria M (SDCAT09 is awesome for coming up with this fake quote for me!)
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
I'm surprised you'd let go of a hot dog.
You must have really wanted his fandom.
I could tell how much she wanted it.
did we ever figure out how much my Indians fandom is worth?
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
half a pack of Mentos
"If there's a new way....I'll be the first in line. But it better work this time...." Peace Sells....but Who's Buying
Proving that you can be gay and not like Madonna, and rock out to Metal. .
Quitter's People United Member # 78
I'm thinking it was an Oscar Meyer wiener
which is low on your HDAR
2010 Colorado Zombies--It ain't over
Brad Hawpe - Thanks Brad, you were a class act. I'm going to miss you most of all! Good luck with the Rays!
"You can learn a lot just by watching"-Yogi Berra
QPU #4, YHEG #4, Proud Member PR Gynocracy
This infuirates me...
…they’re dependent on a lot of lucky breaks. Jhoulys Chacin will have to make a few more starts like his six-inning, two-run performance last night.Chacin pitched well because he is simply good, has more a good 10 starts of quailty starts. The media’s inability to read stats before they write is complete BS.
Ubaldo "Iron Arm" Jimenez
Seth Smith’s beard looks on in anticipation.
Zomtober!!!
Guidelines for the National media to follow when writing about Rockies players
1) Don’t write about the Rockies unless you absolutely have to.
2) If you are forced to write about the Rockies because they do something like win 21 out of 22 games, make sure you remind everyone that it was just a fluke and that the Rockies really aren’t that good.
3) Devalue anything thier hitters do by reminding everyone they play at Coors Field
4) Don’t EVER mention their pitching because good pitchers don’t want to pitch in Colorado
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #1
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Sep 9, 2010 10:34 AM MDT up reply actions
My take on national respect Re: Rockies
I’ve been thinking about this a lot since yesterday’s ‘pile. I guess I don’t care too much if we aren’t the first highlight on Sportscenter. With computers and gadgets and wizardry I can catch all the highlights I want nowdays, and pretty quickly. And if they don’t show many Rox games on national TV, no biggie. I pay comcast for the privelege of watching most any game I want, and gasp I don’t mind Frazier and Co.
I think we as a group of educated fans are putting too much stock in national opinion to shape how we value this team. Sure, no one told us the season was going to be this way (clap clap clap clap clap). But given the Rox’ shortcomings on the road, some heartbreaking losses, and an injury bug that was largely absent in 2009, it’s still interesting and entertaining and there is still a legitamate shot at the playoffs.
So who cares about what Rob Neyer or Tim Kurkg….Kirkj….Kujikis…..Ken Rosenthal have to say? We still know CarGo is awesome, and love Uball, and hate Tulo with the fire of a thousand Egyptian suns. It’s still fun, dammit.
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 10:34 AM MDT reply actions
Personally, I care very little on how much national coverage the Rockies get. I am more concerned by the type of coverage.
The only time you hear about the Rockies, it’s about cheating, flukiness, and just plain luck.
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
and Jesus. I forgot about Jesus.
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
Re: flukiness
by and large, that is in reference to 21 of 22 in 2007. which if you are in a conversation with someone, you can gently correct them that the Rox had the best record in the NL from June on, complete with winning 2 of 3 in Fenway and sweeping the Yankees at Coors.
Re: cheating
meh, that was one dude and a small faction at one blog, and it really hasn’t been picked up with any serious attention.
Re: luck
Go Jason Hirsch.
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 10:47 AM MDT up reply actions
Jesus is just alright with me.
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 10:49 AM MDT up reply actions
You know what's funny
We were actually the first highlight on SportsCenter last night
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #1
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Sep 9, 2010 10:43 AM MDT up reply actions
that's in RIRF
take a lap.
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions
Chipper Jones Says........
"If (Gonzalez) is doing the same thing on the road that he’s doing at home, I’d be glad to give him credit. And he’s a tremendous player, don’t get me wrong. But the numbers? He’s hitting like .390 at home with 25 homers and 65 ribbies?’’ link
I love how the broadcasters last night mentioned that during his 1999 season he hit:
.366 home/.275 away
In 05: .339 home/.254 away (OPS 1.056/.876)
This year: .301 home/.227 away
And talking HRs too......
This year Chipper hit 9 at home and 1 on the road, I think he needs to focus on his own Heltonesque decline.
remember last year, when he threatened .400?
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
tremendous player
He’s no Pablo Sandoval. ;-p
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
Chief Engineer of the Ubaldo Lovers Club
Proud Member of the PR Gynocracy
by Rox the Casbah on Sep 9, 2010 12:19 PM MDT up reply actions
Checkout Pablos home/road splits if you ever want a laugh.
Donate to charity by shopping for Purple Row Merchandise at: Purple Row Cares
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by Charlie77 on Sep 9, 2010 12:27 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Hee hee
I was joking on size… but I can imagine :-D That whole team was built for AT&T…
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
Chief Engineer of the Ubaldo Lovers Club
Proud Member of the PR Gynocracy
by Rox the Casbah on Sep 9, 2010 12:58 PM MDT up reply actions
OT: MLB.TV question
The game today isn’t on FSN, and I don’t have MLB network. Will MLB.tv still black it out in Denver? How about upcoming games that the rockies play that are only broadcast by the opponents TV network (even away games)?
It will almost certainly be blacked out in Denver
looks like we are stuck with radio
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
sometimes I'd rather listen to Jerry Schemmel ask Tulo about Jesus
than listening to George Frazier kill braincells in my head with the words he speaks
"If there's a new way....I'll be the first in line. But it better work this time...." Peace Sells....but Who's Buying
Proving that you can be gay and not like Madonna, and rock out to Metal. .
Quitter's People United Member # 78
Point A: of why mlb.tv is run by THE DEVIL!!
Donate to charity by shopping for Purple Row Merchandise at: Purple Row Cares
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by Charlie77 on Sep 9, 2010 12:28 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I think the Black out Restriction would prohibit you from watching any of the Rockies games.
Since even though your local affiliate doesn’t carry the game, they still have the rights to broadcast the game.
The lack of Seth Smith's beard is irrational
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #π
I can understand, from a business perspective, why they'd black out today's game
they think I’ll switch my entire TV setup from dish network to another provider just to get mlb network, which I won’t, but I still understand the logic.
I kind of understand the logic for why they’d black me out next wednesday when FSN isn’t broadcasting but the padres network is, because they think I should just go to the game at coors.
I do not at all understand the logic for why I’d be blacked out next saturday when FSN has elected to not exercise their broadcast rights on the game @ LA and I have zero options for viewing it.
But I suppose I’m preaching to the choir on this one….
This
I can’t get to all games, and I can’t monopolize the home TV all the time. If MLB.tv won’t ever allow me to watch my favorite team’s home games, I’m never going to fork over hard earned dollars for it.
The way I look at it, I’m going to my same 12-15 games or so every year, whether or not I get mlb.tv, so it’s not as if letting me see my team’s home games will cost the team or league any revenue. It can only add to it. Their loss.
not as punny as SDcat00
How much extra would you be willing to pay
for MLB.tv that had no blackouts.
I think there is a revenue stream here that they could tap and funnel some of the money back to those who own the rights.
"I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else" - W. Churchill
I wouldn't pay any extra if
I was only blacked out of Indians games
Why should we have to pay extra
It’s really that simple, if MLB.tv offers all Rockies’ games, I’m willing to pay for it. If they don’t, then I’m not. It’s that simple. I already pay for digital cable, DVR, etc., so why would I pay for anything they blackout at all. I shouldn’t have to pay extra to avoid a blackout.
not as punny as SDcat00
Well then it is an issue of your cable provider
Cox offers in market mlb.tv to San Diego cable customers. You can watch any Padres game on mlb.tv in San Diego if you are a Cox cable customer.
MLB sold the rights. Complaining to MLB is not the solution. Criticisms should be addressed to those who are controlling the rights.
"I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else" - W. Churchill
As a consumer, it doesn't really matter who holds the rights to sell
The middleman isn’t really my concern.
When I’m at home, I get my services from Comcast. So, okay, I watch (or DVR) all FSRM broadcasts, there’s no blackouts. There are 12 games a year that FSRM doesn’t broadcast, and I miss those. Okay.
When I’m at work, and want to see a Rockies game on mlb.tv, and I can’t because it’s a home game and home Rox games are blacked out on mlb.tv because Comcast didn’t agree to sell those, it doesn’t result in me not giving Comcast any $$$, it results in me not giving mlb.tv any money.
No need to complain, far easier for me to just not spend my money.
not as punny as SDcat00
I believe that Padres fans do not have to subscribe to mlb.tv
They can sign in using a password provided by Cox, which comes with their cable subscription and watch in market padres games (only Padres games actually) where ever they are.
"I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else" - W. Churchill
That's pretty cool, really, though I suspect it's more the exception than the rule
not as punny as SDcat00
I believe it is the only example of such an arrangement
But it shows it can be done and offers a point of leverage and precedent. If I was in a similar situation (I live out of market and don’t subscribe to cable, so this is really not my battle) I would be vocal about this with the powers that be. I would raise the situation in San Diego as a case in point and suggest that my TV subscription dollars will go to whomever was willing to provide a similar service in Denver. Let them at least know that this is wanted
"I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else" - W. Churchill
Comcast Chn 420
For those of you with Preferred Service or higher, you will find the game there.
Ubaldo Jimenez is my Daughter's Patron Saint. On Days He Pitches, We Call Her Ubalda.
by thelastspoonbender on Sep 9, 2010 1:40 PM MDT up reply actions
Good thing all be moving to San Francisco
Where it will simple and painless to watch every single Rockies game on mlb.tv. Isn’t that backwards?
except when they play the Giants
or the A’s if that ever happens
"I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else" - W. Churchill
But if they play the giants, I'll just watch it on CSNBA, which
incidentally, has a broadcast team that is significantly better than ours.
Well yeah, if you have a TV
but that is cheating
"I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else" - W. Churchill
I wouldn't say they're significantly better than ours.
They’re good, and I generally enjoy them. But I think to some degree it’s a style preference. They might be better, but I definitely would not say they are “significantly” better.
Lineup
2b ey
cf fowler
lf CarGo
ss Tulo
1b giambi
3b mora
rf spilly
c iannetta
p hammel
CDI SIGHTING
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
Olivo's been quite good the last several games at the plate
lets see if CDI can keep it going
"If there's a new way....I'll be the first in line. But it better work this time...." Peace Sells....but Who's Buying
Proving that you can be gay and not like Madonna, and rock out to Metal. .
Quitter's People United Member # 78
“great job, Herrera. why don’t you sit over there.”
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 10:48 AM MDT up reply actions
"no, not next to Nelson. We think he may be contagious"
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
by Muzia on Sep 9, 2010 10:49 AM MDT up reply actions 3 recs
+1
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by Charlie77 on Sep 9, 2010 12:29 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
to be fair Muzia he will throw a walk in there for good measure
"If there's a new way....I'll be the first in line. But it better work this time...." Peace Sells....but Who's Buying
Proving that you can be gay and not like Madonna, and rock out to Metal. .
Quitter's People United Member # 78
which is pretty much the same as a hit
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
/farvajumpingovercountertokickbutt.gif
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 11:34 AM MDT up reply actions
litera cola?
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions
sweeeep time
time to make another run to the postseason....get it going guys!!
Troy Tulowitzki: "When people think of the Rockies, I want them to think of a winning organization."
by TuLoRocks2008 on Sep 9, 2010 11:09 AM MDT up reply actions
Good to see CDI deployed against a lefty
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
Nice nice.
I still believe...
This is R year!
by prettyinpurple on Sep 9, 2010 12:02 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I was just thinking that when everybody starts saying Todd should retire is when he starts hitting well again
sooooooo…..it’s time to pack it in Todd. Give one of our many left handed batting slap hitters a chance to take your place!
"If there's a new way....I'll be the first in line. But it better work this time...." Peace Sells....but Who's Buying
Proving that you can be gay and not like Madonna, and rock out to Metal. .
Quitter's People United Member # 78
but it will be hard for him to get many hits today
for other reasons
"I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else" - W. Churchill
screw what people say
i love this team and believe in them…Cargo is a damn good hitter even on the road….Tulo is one of the premier names in the game already….and Ace Baldo is only going to get better….as for the nucleus around them there is a ton of young talent everywhere we are primed to be a damn good team for years to come.
time to make another run to the postseason....get it going guys!!
Troy Tulowitzki: "When people think of the Rockies, I want them to think of a winning organization."
NL West title hopes
… the Rockies NL West title hopes got a huge boost from their win and the Giants loss yesterday. The Rockies picked up most of the lost probability from the Giants, and by my methodology where I play out the rest of the schedule for the top four NL West teams on my simulator, the Rockies now have a 12.42% chance of winning the division. This is rather significant for the Rockies as just the day before they were mired at around a 5% chance – and only a few weeks ago they were flirting with the 1% mark. So if the rest of the season were to be played out over and over again the Rockies would win the division around one out of every eight times.
Our chances would have been even better had your guys managed even one win in SD
But thanks for the info I always appreciate your sims
"I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else" - W. Churchill
I got it at the beginning of the year at 85.5...
I was sure they’d win 90-plus. I’m still confident I’ll cover.
Oh, now be honest, NL West rivals, warriors to warriors. You do prefer it this way, don't you, as it was meant to be? No peace in our time. "Once more unto the breach, dear friends."
by jasontheuncatchable on Sep 9, 2010 12:16 PM MDT up reply actions
I saw it as 84.5 at the beginning of the year, and I said in this year's team preview...
that it was the easiest line on the board.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
Harding tweets
Rox manager Jim Tracy announced Jeff Francis will start sept. 13 vs. San Diego, then he’ll look at other options
/throws SDcat09 under bus
Rowsdower! But why, Rowsdower?
SB Nation Denver
Deduno if Esmil Rogers will get any starts?
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions
The question is will he be facing mat Latos?
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #1
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Sep 9, 2010 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions
Deduno if Mat Latos is fully recovered from sneezyribs?
The OT: All that AND a bag of meat.
by frightened inmate #2 on Sep 9, 2010 11:27 AM MDT up reply actions
He looked pretty good on Tuesday.
The real question is: will he show fatigue from already being 30 IP more than last year?
If the Rockies are playing winning baseball and winning championships, I don't really care what east coast writers are writing.
In fact, it helps the “underdog” image the Rockies enjoy. Right now we’re on a hot winning streak in a playoff race against two other teams also on winning streaks and it’s being covered as such. The Rockies do seem to get shafted with respect to post-season awards, but that does seem to be slowly changing (Tracy and O’Dowd last year as an example, and Tulo got a decent share of votes in 2007 just not enough to win RoY)
I will say to Rockies fans who post on national boards though: you earn respect by winning and by how you conduct yourself, not by complaining that you don’t get enough respect. Win the NL west a few times or the World Series and the respect will be there. Look at the history with the Broncos and Avs as proof.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~Earl Weaver
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #3
I think this is a little bit different than the Broncos or the Avs or the Nuggets for that matter
2010 Colorado Zombies--It ain't over
Brad Hawpe - Thanks Brad, you were a class act. I'm going to miss you most of all! Good luck with the Rays!
"You can learn a lot just by watching"-Yogi Berra
QPU #4, YHEG #4, Proud Member PR Gynocracy
I think this is a little bit different than the Broncos or the Avs or the Nuggets for that matter
Nuggets get a lot respect from MSM even though they haven’t won anything. They are often touted as being a good to great team. There is no LOLPEPZI center conversations other than to note that the Nuggets may have the advantage by running and gunning the opposition to exhaustion.
The Rockies are a much harder sell because of baseball “purists” so to speak. I think it’s perfectly fine to defend against bad or lazy analysis.
2010 Colorado Zombies--It ain't over
Brad Hawpe - Thanks Brad, you were a class act. I'm going to miss you most of all! Good luck with the Rays!
"You can learn a lot just by watching"-Yogi Berra
QPU #4, YHEG #4, Proud Member PR Gynocracy
I agree
The Rockies are one of the most unique cases in all of sports.
1) They play baseball which is the slowest of all the sports to accept change
2) They play at Coors which opens a pandora’s box of scrutiny on the offensive players
3) They play in the mountian time zone which makes it really inconveinient for the big networks to show them when they play at home
4) They have only been around since 1993
5) Thier best franchise moment was winning 21 out of 22 which caught everyone off guard
Add all these things together and I think most people don’t know what to think of the Rockies.
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #1
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Sep 9, 2010 11:45 AM MDT up reply actions
I don’t follow the NBA so I can’t give an informed opinion about the attention the Nuggets get. I do know that the Broncos got plenty of national attention (Sunday night and Monday night games included) for years, and still do even though it’s falling off lately with the lowered performance). Also the Avs were very well-respected in the hockey world when they were on their streak of division titles. It was even getting to the point where Avs/Wings were getting as annoying to fans in other parts of the country as Yankees/Red Sox are to us.
Your point about baseball “purists” is a good one though. Baseball is slow to accept change and it may take an even longer run of sustained winning to gain attention than in other sports. I still say back-to-back division titles will do it though.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." ~Earl Weaver
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #3
I'm not sure your right about this
at any rate I can completely resonate with RG formula Coors field + cheating = home field advantage. It seems so many times in baseball conversations about Rockies players I end up trying to argue against the falsity of this formula. So often it seems to the point that the Rockies are really seen as a laughable group of cheaters for an organization.
Try entering into a debate about Todd Helton being in the hall of fame. I’m not saying he should be in HOF or that there are not great arguments for him being left out. But every time I discuss this I find myself arguing that Coors field isn’t some kind of launching pad that some average Joe could come in and start knocking around doubles. What gets printed in the media gets exaggerated by fans and the media is already exaggerating the facts.
I will say to Rockies fans who post on national boards though: you earn respect by winning and by how you conduct yourself, not by complaining that you don’t get enough respect
I really couldn’t agree more. The way our fan base behaves in regard to national media coverage and awards is like we are the dorky kids in High School desperate for the approbation of the cool clique. External gratification should not and does not matter so much. Good counsel to those dorky kids and to us is to be proud of what we are and confident in our own self knowledge that we are truly worthy no matter what those so called cool kids say
"I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else" - W. Churchill
Can we truthfullt pretend that medias negative or lack of coverage of the Rockies doesn't have
negative effects for both the players and their fans? Is the advice we should take turn your head the other way and try not to listen?
I mean who cares if there are legitimate arguments that Cargo deserves to be the MVP the Rockies haven’t won a world series yet so just wait. I’m sorry if this isn’t what your saying, but it sure sounds like it to me.
I'm saying
We are a great team. If we win and play well we will get attention. BUT winning and playing well should be what we care about the most and not the attention. We just seem to beg for approval and it turns me off. I don’t want to be the Sally Field of MLB
"I am an optimist - it does not seem to be much use being anything else" - W. Churchill
From Jayson Stark on Manny
On that bizarre Sunday in Colorado, manager Joe Torre called Manny into his office and told him what the team had in mind if it opted to keep him instead of trading him to the White Sox.
He wasn’t going to be an everyday left fielder anymore, because they’d concluded he wasn’t physically up to that. But they offered him the chance to pick his own spots, pick the games he thought he was up to playing, and even choose the pitchers he wanted to face.
By then, though, Manny clearly was hell-bent on starting a new life as a DH. So indications are that he balked at that plan, tried to paint the manager as conspiring against him and told Torre he didn’t want to play that day, even though he was in the manager’s original lineup.
Then, when Torre sent him to the plate to pinch-hit, he got himself bounced after one pitch. And by the time the Dodgers boarded the plane back to L.A., they’d concluded, once and for all, that Manny had to go. Hard to blame them.
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #1
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Sep 9, 2010 11:55 AM MDT reply actions
Who cares what the media says? Well, the players for one
Everybody likes getting credit when it’s due, MLB players included.
The majority of Rockies fans for another, given how up in arms many get when the double standard is displayed.
The majority of baseball fans for a third, seeing as that’s the place where they get their information to begin with. You wouldn’t be here on this site, or ever click through to articles at ESPN or FanGraphs or anywhere else if you didn’t care what the media says. Every sports fan does to some degree or another.
I agree with you here.
But as someone who knows, it brings me great pride to bring these stats to peoples attention. There are a lot of baseball fans who watch only for OMG FLASHY DIVING and OMG RBIS.
There is another breed, one that will never have a major network, that says “his babip is huge right now” and get the response “thats what she said.”
I also love bringing the Rockies stats
to my friends who are all Twins fans, though only a small amount of them understand even the simplest of the advanced matrics (was that an oxymoron?)
"Don't give up, don't ever give up" - Jim Valvano
Of course, maybe we should see the upside of the media not mentioning the Rockies' pitching
make it the best-kept secret! And when other teams’ fans expect a win against the Rox, jump out and surprise them, like BWAHAHAHAHA!!! WE DON’T ACTUALLY SUCK! It could make for jokes on ignorant baseball fans everywhere! :-D
or, you know, I’m just being driven crazy by three small children. take your pick.
"Good pitching will beat good hitting any time, and vice versa." ~Bob Veale
"I hope this game isn't horrible. Because if it is, we're going to have to wait until tomorrow to see the Rockies win." ~5-yo
"Sometimes you're the windshield, and sometimes you're the bug."~Mitch Williams
Chief Engineer of the Ubaldo Lovers Club
Proud Member of the PR Gynocracy
i hate to go against the grain on this one but I just don't like using Fangraphs WAR for pitching
I will preface this post saying that my stats knowledge is not comparable to that of the staff here at PR but I don’t consider myself a total noob either.
But I feel that Fangraphs WAR (FWAR) is not indicitive of results. It is based off of FIP which I feel is a better stat to use for predicting future performance than judging past results. We saw this in the start of the season when Ubaldo had his sub 1 ERA and yet his FIP was significantly higher leading to Fangraphs and most of the saber community to not give him his due credit. I believe Rox Girl wrote an article on this subject.
For example: I have a hard time believing that Aaron Cook (5.08 ERA 88ERA+ 1.5 FWAR) has been slightly less valuable than Trevor Cahill (2.72 ERA 150 ERA+ 1.9 FWAR). Cahill gets killed over at Fangraphs by having a FIP almost 1.5 runs higher than his ERA. This is due to his extremely low BABIP but still, do we really discredit his preformance thus far because the “expected” outcome didn’t match up to his results? I will repeat, it is exactly what happened to Ubaldo in the beginning of the season. FWAR should be used as a future predictor not as a basis for judging results.
I remember reading an article on Beyond the Boxscore months ago talking about the topic of FWAR vs Baseball-reference WAR (BWAR). It was at this time that I was upset with how Ubaldo’s performance was being criticized by the saber community. I am still not entirely sure how BWAR is calculated (I think its based off tERA but someone smarter than me here can problem set the record straight) but that article helped guide my current anti-FWAR beliefs. Looking over at BWAR, the Rockies are about middle of the pack as far as pitching staffs. I don’t think that’s entirely right, we definitely should be in the top 10, but I don’t think we are probably #1 either like Fangraphs says. As to my earlier example, Trevor Cahill is worth 3.6 BWAR over Aaron Cook which I am in total agreement with.
Since I am going against the grain here, I am prepared that this comment will not likely go over well but I am interested in any rebuttals because like I said, I will definitely concede my stats knowledge to many users on here.
I tend to agree with you.
To me, FIP is an interesting statistic but is also very problematic. Some people like to say that it only measures the things that are under a pitcher’s control; I think that it just measures the things that aren’t under the influence of his fielders. To say that pitchers control home runs is somewhat misleading, because there are lots of straight fastballs in the middle of the plate that don’t clear the wall. However, I think xFIP seems even worse. If you just compare xFIP to the leader boards, it is easy to tell that it doesn’t reflect performance. I think something like tERA makes a lot of sense, because it is more like wOBA, which everybody likes for hitting metrics. I don’t understand why this type of stat isn’t more popular.
As far as the Rockies are concerned, I also feel like they are good but maybe not the best, though correctly assessing the effect of pitching at Coors is very difficult, so maybe they are the best.
i definitely agree with you on that last sentance
coming up with a park adjustment for coors has to be difficult.
I prefer bWAR (which is actually Rally WAR) for pitching as well.
I believe that fWAR overrates Colorado’s pitching staff (due to their strong FIP and heavy park adjustments) but I believe wholeheartedly that the Rockies are still a top 5 staff in MLB.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
yeah i knew it came from somewhere else, i was thinking maybe tango but thanks for clarifying
Also Jeff, is Rally WAR based off of tERA?
It's based on tRA
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
okay, this is going to take a little 'splainin, so bear with me.
It might take a bit of a back and forth to get to an understanding of what’s happening. While FIP is more of a predictive stat than a reactive one, it is useful in establishing a WAR value in a few ways. First, it’s probably one of the most reliable way of separating a team’s defensive performance and park effects from the pitching line. So while Cook and Cahill are actually fairly similar pitchers, both GB heavy, low K types, Cahill’s performance this year seems much better on the surface because he’s had a lot more defensive help, and a pitching friendly (slightly, Oakland’s park effect gets overstated) stadium.
I’m not basing this entirely off of FWAR, btw, but also tRA, which also has the Rockies as the best in the NL two years running, but probably not in the MLB as the different replacement level between leagues knocks us back down to earth.
The difference between B-Ref WAR and FWAR is largely based on the Rockies up the middle defense. B-Ref thinks that the Rockies are successful at preventing runs because Clint Barmes and Troy Tulowitzki are saviors for our pitching staff, while UZR and FWAR essentially reverses that, saying that our pitching staff make Tulo and Barmes look good by supplying so many GB’s for them to convert into outs. I trust UZR on the infield a bit more than any other defensive stat, but I could see reality being something in the middle there.
by the way, regardless of what you feel,
writers that use FanGraphs stats to support their arguments, and all of the above mentioned save Stark have at some point this season, should be consistent with it. If this is the measure that they trust, particularly the FanGraphs writers themselves, why aren’t they using it to show that the Rockies are the best?
i agree with you here but maybe not on the method behind their actions
I don’t think there is an “Anti-Rockies” bias out there in the media as much as there is an “Rockies Indifference”. not to say that is any better but I don’t see an agenda against the Rockies like some people believe there is.
Now has this indifference led to some sloppy written articles? No doubt. That is where the problem lies. How much research really goes into writing some of those Fangraph articles?
thanks for replying. i was hoping this didnt get lost after i realised that a gamethread went up right before i posted this.
i want to start off saying that your first paragraph is very helpful in explaining the difference between Cook and Cahill. Now that I think about it, the two of them are so heavily reliant on their defense being ground ball pitchers, that maybe FIP is a good way to compare the two. Cahill’s ballpark definitely does give him a huge advantage over Cook but is the difference in their ERA+ (150 to 88) completely due to the difference in defense behind them (the difference in FIP and xFIP is about .3-.4 of a run suggesting Cahill has been a little better than Cook)?
As to your final paragraph, this is probably where I’m a little more traditional in that I’m not completely sold on advanced defensive metrics and in this case would tend to side with B-R. I think Tulo and Barmes are more impactful to our pitching success than it is the pitchers making the two look good. Maybe I am biased though since we did not see much of a dropoff when Tulo was out and it was Barmes, Hererra.
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