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Thursday Rockpile: The Rocky Mountain Way

 

 "Now, you're implementing something, and it takes awhile. With some people, it takes longer. With Franklin, it took longer. Hopefully, it's something that he can really hold onto."

 

Bob Apodaca on reliever Franklin Morales


Patient to a fault, loyal to a fault. That's how the Rockies roll. A lot of us expressed some measure of disappointment that the Rockies didn't trade away declining players like Garrett Atkins or Brad Hawpe while they were at peak value. This is what the Rays would have done, and in fact that legion of brilliant scouts, player development minds, number crunchers and typewriter monkeys snatched up Hawpe on the cheap for the rest of the 2010 season and got a draft pick out of it. The Rockies on the other hand, got nothing but a bag full of magic beans, what we refer to as "goodwill", for treating a player that was no longer an asset to the team with as much as respect as they could. 

This is not the way to manage an investment. You don't care about soft values. You buy low, you sell high, you reap profit. You win. This is why the Rays are better than the Rockies and everybody else. Right? 

Not necessarily. While I'm being a bit snarky above, for their market, what the Rays are doing is probably optimal. If a team can't crack two million fans despite winning their division two out of the last three seasons, they are clearly at a severe competitive disadvantage relative to other MLB markets and it becomes necessary to treat the operation with those kind of cruel calculated moves, where people get dehumanized and put on a spreadsheet and into a cost/benefit process to maximize profit. The Rays players are commodity options, traded from a detached, distant front office and again, the proof is in the pudding, this process does work.

That said, don't feel discouraged about what the Rockies are doing differently. They have a market that allows them to treat the team like a hands-on business rather than a distant investment. Go through the Fortune list of the country's top 100 companies to work for and note the similarities these organizations have to the way the Monforts and O'Dowd are running the Rockies. Number one, SAS, operates on a "culture -- based on 'trust between our employees and the company'". Sound familiar? Number three, Wegman's, hasn't had a layoff in its history. They too, are loyal to a fault.

The way the Rockies are building their team follows this pattern of successfully run businesses rather than one created by Wall Street of successfully managed investments. Both strategies work in the business world, both models should be successful in the hyper-competitive MLB. One of them is more likely to avoid deep slumps in performance but probably less likely to produce spectacular short term returns. 

Look at the bitterness Carlos Gonzalez expressed for trading him away toward the other two organizations for which he played. Now, he says he wants to retire with the Rockies.  Jorge De La Rosa was willing to come back to the team despite the fact they offered him less than he could have received elsewhere. The Rockies system of trusting players, scouts and other staff keeps the voluntary attrition rate relatively low. You can read more on this from Troy Renck in today's Denver Post:

This isn't to say that the team is ignorant of the competitive environment of the MLB, and while loyal, the team doesn't cow to veteran demands for playing time despite poor performance. Declining Gen-R players such Atkins, Hawpe, Clint Barmes and Jeff Francis were all given opportunity to accept lesser roles with the Rockies or play elsewhere. Also, since the Rockies don't enjoy the revenue streams of the Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers or Giants, there is necessarily going to be churn, some young players will have to be allowed to go to other teams that give them greater opportunity to shine. Which brings up this Jim Armstrong article:

I'm going to break down more about what this kind of churn entails later, how a team can maintain a level of fifteen or so close to league minimum salaries and still be competitive and at least somewhat loyal, but after the jump I'll delve into a few more aspects that set the Rockies apart from other organizations around the league, what makes our team a unique culture that players want to stick with. 

Off-Topic

Star-divide

Another hallmark of the Rockies system is that it emphasizes quality over quantity. There are seven teams that have academies in Venezuela, but the Rockies aren't one of them. Yet only the Tigers are currently getting more production from Venezuelan born players than the Rockies. Headlines like this one aren't going to do anything to stop that flow of talent, either. The same is true in the Dominican, where Ubaldo Jimenez draws players to the team, and even Mexico, where Vinny Castilla's still a baseball hero and there's been a lot of interest in Jorge De La Rosa. 

The organization has seven affiliates, which is tied for the least in the majors, yet standard (17 MLB teams have seven, the rest have eight or nine) but the team is using those affiliates and their new Spring headquarters to build a unique development system that's less reliant on building prospect hype for trades than it is on building their value for insertion into the MLB team. They're in plans to build a Rockies only complex in the Dominican after sharing facilities for several years, their Pioneer League Casper affiliate is the most remote outpost in organized minor league baseball. And while the other affiliates are closer to scouting and prospect watching hotbeds, the Rockies fill them with players that often befuddle long time observers.

In 2009, many wondered why the Rockies would push 20 year old Wilin Rosario to Modesto rather than Asheville, and when he failed to produce stats befitting a top prospect, many felt justified in questioning this. In 2010, Rosario answered back with a monster season at AA that makes him an elite catching prospect.

Keith Law earlier this off season echoed some scouts who think that the Rockies messing with Tyler Matzek's old school delivery has been to the pitcher's detriment. In a way, it has, Matzek was one of baseball's consensus top 30 or so prospects a year ago, and now he's going to be lucky to find his way onto many pundits' top 100 lists due to the control issues and lowered velocity the tweaks engendered. While his value outside the organization has dropped (save for the one curiously misinformed Sports Illustrated writer linked yesterday), inside, however, he continues to rise. The player they drafted had promise as a starter, but with his current delivery was likely headed to a Billy Wagner type of career in the bullpen. The Rockies instead want a Randy Johnson type of career and they feel what they are doing will help him get there sooner. Much as the case was with Rosario, they've willingly devalued Matzek in the short term to give him larger value to the team in the long run.

Like few other teams, the Rockies treat prospects as employees they as an organization are willing to be patient to let grow into their talents rather than assets that can be used to shark talent from other clubs. The top quote from Apodaca on Morales, taken from this Thomas Harding article on the reliever is a perfect example. Again, what you're seeing here is a pattern of a team that's not afraid to buck the consensus of current baseball thought if it sees an opportunity for greater value.

There's a commitment to a work ethic with the Rockies too that bleeds from the top to the players. A Providence writer questions whether Chris Iannetta is working too much during the offseason. I think, and I believe that the Rockies and Iannetta think, that there's no such thing. Eventually the work will pay off. 

So, uhm, in conclusion, welcome to the organization Sean White, (and you too Claudio Vargas) good luck to you both. I'm sure WolfMarauder will be able to fill you in on the crunch you guys face for AAA roster space, but if you can latch on, it's a club worth keeping.

And to our opponents, as Trevor Hoffman can attest, your day of reckoning with what this kind of organization can accomplish will come soon enough.

Comment 460 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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Comments

Display:

I just think Dan O’Dowd does a tremendous job.

"A Blu-Ray player is a device that allows Calgary Flames fans to watch movies during the playoffs." - DGB

by wtnelson on Jan 13, 2011 10:00 AM MST reply actions  

Great Article RG

Confirms what I’ve always liked about the Rockes, but wasn’t sure if it was just a biased fan’s perspective towards their favorite team. As much as it hurts to see players like Hawpe bring nothing in return in value, it’s that same attitude that let them sign CarGo to a deal that everyone thought was never going to happen.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 10:02 AM MST reply actions  

yep, they're both connected.

I think the Twins and Cardinals are somewhat similar in their practices, although St. Louis relies more on outside acquisitions. Minnesota and Colorado are really the two ideal models for this kind of system.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 10:11 AM MST up reply actions  

I think it's a big distinction that gets left out

It’s not like you are building a team on a video game where player emotions are at best a simple AI that rises and falls simply with winning. Players observe how others are treated and then project that upon themselves. I think a reason the Rockies can continue to expect great results in their Latin America endeavors is this sense of family. As important as it is to everyone it’s importance is through the roof for players from areas of less wealth.

I think it’s the biggest difference between Matt Holliday and CarGo. Matt listened to Boras and did well, but CarGo value the family atmosphere after have been “used” by organizations that he overrode Boras’ “advice,” something no one though was ever going to happen.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 10:15 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

And the great irony here is that the Rockies had always treated Holliday as part of that family

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 12:41 PM MST up reply actions  

And I agree with that

However he didn’t have the experience of being treated like less then that from other teams. So I’d say it’s a safe bet he didn’t value it as much.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 12:54 PM MST up reply actions  

IAWTC

I’ll go further…the fact that he grew up in the family he did grow up in (re HS/college coaches) pretty much ensured that he would have gotten any athletic opportunity he wanted.

Which is not to suggest at all that he didn’t have to work hard it, but only that he would never have gotten less than 100% support from those in a position to determine his playing time, position, advancement, etc.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 1:05 PM MST up reply actions  

I think

after the trade to Oakland and then being traded to St. Louis he learned what Carlos went through. He wanted some security and he enjoyed playing in St. Louis and took a slight discount (if I recall correctly) to sign there.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 13, 2011 1:06 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah

I think we can agree that Oakland really never cared about him they were only interested in him as a trading chip.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 1:13 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm not sure $20m a year in your 30s is much of a discount

But yeah.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 1:14 PM MST up reply actions  

If it is

There was a lot f discounted deals signed this offseason

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 1:19 PM MST up reply actions  

If I recall, St. Louis had the best offer

I dont think Holliday took a discount to stay there

by purplesocks on Jan 13, 2011 1:27 PM MST up reply actions  

If I recall correctly, he never actually hit free agency

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 1:39 PM MST up reply actions  

Are you talking about Holliday?

I think he signed his contract at the winter meetings or shortly after. I remember reading some posts at a baseball board that were laughing at St. Louis upper their bids essentially bidding against themselves.

by purplesocks on Jan 13, 2011 1:40 PM MST up reply actions  

Sounds like a typical Boras negotiation

So glad the Rockies didn’t have to go through that with CarGo

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 1:43 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah, I was talking about Holliday...I couldn't remember when on the calendar he signed

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 1:52 PM MST up reply actions  

It's less than ironic that these are my two favorite teams.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 12:40 PM MST up reply actions  

I've never been a Twins "fan"...

but I have always thought they went about baseball the right way. Even in the past when they won World Series they seemed to build from within and establish an outstanding fan base. While the offensive philosophies may differ from the Rockies I do agree that their clubhouses seem very similar and the track record for Minnesota shows that it can, and does, work.

Plus Joe Mauer is simply awesome!

Well, I believe in the soul, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.

by Rox Fever on Jan 13, 2011 12:54 PM MST up reply actions  

Great Rockpile

but I am really interested in hearing your thoughts on how a team can be consistently competitive with 12-15 players earning a salary below arbitration.

by arpagamos on Jan 13, 2011 10:08 AM MST reply actions  

I've got a couple of grant applications that are due that I have to write today,

but I was meaning to go more into that. I think Monfort was exaggerating a bit when he said that, or maybe Armstrong incorrectly inferred pre-arbitration when in reality the model probably can hold a number of players in the first two years of arbitration and still be right around the payroll levels they’re projecting. That makes it a lot easier.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 10:17 AM MST up reply actions  

Yeah

I almost included a statement about not understanding their math. The Monforts are projecting a 100 million dollar payroll; which it seems would give them a little more room for flexibility.

by arpagamos on Jan 13, 2011 11:26 AM MST up reply actions  

Lovelovelove that Iannetta article

I’m really crossing my fingers that he bounces back in a big way.

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 13, 2011 10:15 AM MST reply actions  

Ditto

I love the guy, and like you, hoping that this year is THE year.

Get your purple on.

by rockhead on Jan 13, 2011 10:24 AM MST up reply actions  

Just out of curiosity, what are we hoping for?

a .250/.350/.470 line?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 10:31 AM MST up reply actions  

I'd take that

from a guy who will probably be batting 8th for us any day.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 10:32 AM MST up reply actions  

I'm curious to see what people are

either expecting or hoping for.

That would be a pretty sweet line from an 8 hitter…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 10:34 AM MST up reply actions  

that BA would make me do somersaults for joy

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 13, 2011 10:34 AM MST up reply actions  

I'd be more than pleased with that

That would represent some consistency over the long haul.

Get your purple on.

by rockhead on Jan 13, 2011 10:35 AM MST up reply actions  

How about a .264/.390/.505 line?

More specifically, his 2008 season.

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 10:53 AM MST up reply actions  

I'll keep my fingers crossed

If he has a .380 or .390 OBP, do we bat him 2?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 11:04 AM MST up reply actions  

I like Helton in the #2 slot

but if his OBP were to go down and Iannetta put up a number like this I’d consider it.

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 11:08 AM MST up reply actions  

You mean the 65+ times that happens in 2011?

Hopefully with him on base for about 45+ of them.

Well, I believe in the soul, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.

by Rox Fever on Jan 13, 2011 11:41 AM MST up reply actions  

True, CarGo's HRs tend to go much further than that.

Well, I believe in the soul, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.

by Rox Fever on Jan 13, 2011 11:43 AM MST up reply actions  

Ah I see

Totally missed that. I thought he was talking about 11 Helton HR’s

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 11:44 AM MST up reply actions  

my mistake

I thought you were talking about Todd HRs

by BringItHome on Jan 13, 2011 12:05 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm having a hard time reading it.

It’s a wall of text with no white space between paragraphs.

by holly96 on Jan 13, 2011 12:16 PM MST up reply actions  

Sounds like exactly the inverse of today's OT thread...

Oh, wait….

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

Bazinga!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Jan 13, 2011 12:18 PM MST up reply actions  

And..... never mind...

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

Bazinga!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Jan 13, 2011 12:22 PM MST up reply actions  

Maybe it's because the z's won't work

Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some more groundballs. Its more democratic. - Crash Davis

by DAWNMARIE01 on Jan 13, 2011 12:24 PM MST up reply actions  

I wonder,

If CarGo had only been traded once prior to coming here, would he have been so eager to sign that deal…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 10:27 AM MST reply actions  

Hmmm

Interesting question.

I’m not sure what the answer is to this one but I guess it comes down to how much past experiences of being traded vs. his currect state of satisfaction with the Rockies had to do with him signing this deal.

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 10:58 AM MST up reply actions  

Excellent Rockpile, RG!

Well informed, as usual. The company I work for is similar to the Rockies with it’s commitment to staff development and loyalty. It’s a privilege to work for such a company, and an honor to be a fan of such a team.

Get your purple on.

by rockhead on Jan 13, 2011 10:28 AM MST reply actions  

What is our opening day lineup projecting at right now

Due to being really busy at work I’m not on top of this, Off the top of my head this is how I visualize it.

1. Fowler CF
2. Smith LF
3. CarGo RF
4. Tulo SS
5. Helton 1B
6. Lopez 2B
7. Stewart 3B
8. Iannetta C
9 Ubaldo SP

not sure on the 2nd spot and 5-7

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 10:48 AM MST reply actions  

pretty close, i'd say

mayhap Spilly at #2 if it’s a lefty pitcher.

two Icehouse 24 oz beers = $3.20 two "fancy" Bud Light 24 oz beers = $5.00

NOW who comes out on top?

by frightened inmate #2 on Jan 13, 2011 10:51 AM MST up reply actions  

Yankees still favorites, but we are being mentioned heavily as well

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 13, 2011 11:19 AM MST up reply actions  

I like the sound of that

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 11:46 AM MST up reply actions  

So would I

He would also have an outside shot at taking the 3rd outfield spot from Spilly/Smith.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 11:47 AM MST up reply actions  

By the way

I think Jones would be perfect in the 2 hole against lefties.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 11:58 AM MST up reply actions  

Given that article talking about Iannetta's slow starts

and his strong OBP skills, would it make sense to bat him 2nd? It would give him many more ab’s and help have a SRLRL lineup

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 10:51 AM MST up reply actions  

Maybe but it will never happen

he doesn’t quite have the wheels to be on base with Cargo at the plate.

by BringItHome on Jan 13, 2011 10:52 AM MST up reply actions  

That would also preclude Helton from batting 2 then

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 10:53 AM MST up reply actions  

I expect around a .380 OBP, which I'd love in the 2 spot

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 10:59 AM MST up reply actions  

Thats probably pretty close to what it will be

except I would consider flipping Helton and Stewart.

This is another one I would like to see…

1. Nelson 2B
2. Fowler CF
3. Cargo LF
4. Tulo SS
5. Stewart 3B
6. Helton 1B
7. Smith RF
8. Iannetta C

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 10:52 AM MST up reply actions  

probably just taking into account Fowler's professed preference for #2.

two Icehouse 24 oz beers = $3.20 two "fancy" Bud Light 24 oz beers = $5.00

NOW who comes out on top?

by frightened inmate #2 on Jan 13, 2011 10:57 AM MST up reply actions  

While I understand this thought

I think the Rockies would be well served to help persuade Fowler for leading off. He is the prototype for leadoff if he maintains confidence there.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 10:59 AM MST up reply actions  

Pretty much.

Although I might change that back since I looked it up and Fowler has an OPS+ of 143 as a leadoff hitter vs. 91 batting 2nd.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 11:00 AM MST up reply actions  

he's in his own head.

two Icehouse 24 oz beers = $3.20 two "fancy" Bud Light 24 oz beers = $5.00

NOW who comes out on top?

by frightened inmate #2 on Jan 13, 2011 11:01 AM MST up reply actions  

I think Lopez will be batting second

There’s GIDP risk, but the benefits of his contact skills in front of Cargo outweigh that. I haven’t figured out how five through eight work yet. I really think that a lot of people are sleeping on what Lopez is going to bring to the team in 2011.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 10:52 AM MST up reply actions  

he and delta cleary hang out?

two Icehouse 24 oz beers = $3.20 two "fancy" Bud Light 24 oz beers = $5.00

NOW who comes out on top?

by frightened inmate #2 on Jan 13, 2011 10:57 AM MST up reply actions  

they may get around to it one day

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 13, 2011 10:59 AM MST up reply actions  

Yeah that was one of the questions I had, Lopez vs. LF in the 2nd hole

Though I do like Iannetta in the 8th whole his plate discipline while maddening at times will help him draw walks against with pitcher’s trying to get him to chase and help flip the lineup over.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 10:57 AM MST up reply actions  

I hate Lopez in the #2 slot

He doesn’t get on base nearly enough for me.

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 11:01 AM MST up reply actions  

I still want our OBP guys in the #2 hole for two reasons

1) They take a bunch of pitches which will drive up the pitch count which helps create the possibility of a long first inning while also giving Dex ample oportunity to time a pitcher’s move and swipe second base.

2) I want as many people on base as possible when Cargo and Tulo go yard. They are going to hit a boatload of home runs between them and it’s important we take full advantage of that.

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 11:12 AM MST up reply actions  

taking pitches isn't as beneficial in a slot that will see fewer pitches outside the zone.

You’re going to be minimizing their impact by having them in front of Cargo and Tulo.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 11:15 AM MST up reply actions  

Yes

They make more sense batting 8th where they will see a lot of stuff outside the zone.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 11:16 AM MST up reply actions  

And this actually plays into having someone who is more likely to rip the ball hard

like Jose Lopez. Picture Fowler on base dancing for a steal, they’ll be pitcing distracted and also not wanting to walk the 2 hitter and face Cargo/Tulo with 2 on their mistakes are going to be more of the groove the pitch type then outside the zone. I don’t want someone who might let that pitch go by to run up a pitch count I want someone who will rip it into the gap

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 11:19 AM MST up reply actions  

I'd argue that the positive of having more men on when Cargo and Tulo hit it out will outweigh this

Even is they lose a few OBP points, it’s still going to much higher than what Lopez can put up in that slot.

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 11:21 AM MST up reply actions  

is if

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 11:22 AM MST up reply actions  

Do you remember good Garrett Atkins?

Lopez will be like that, with fewer walks. Good things happen when players with decent pop can put the ball in play in Coors.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 11:13 AM MST up reply actions  

remember, she said good, not great garrett atkins

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 12:40 PM MST up reply actions  

fight! fight! fight!

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 1:00 PM MST up reply actions  

I don't think Lopez will be anywhere near that good but even if he is

Why use a guy with that pop in front of Cargo and Tulo? I think the idea here is to get guys on in front of our big guns and have them knock em in.

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 11:19 AM MST up reply actions  

The reason is that it will maximize the OBP potential of Lopez as well as Helton or Smith

It’s better to have Lopez getting on base at a .350 clip batting in front of Gonzalez than a .330 clip batting seventh, when pitchers will be better able to induce weaker contact. Likewise, Smith or Helton’s BB% will go down batting second compared to fifth or eighth, which mitigates the positive you’re wanting.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 11:30 AM MST up reply actions  

.965 OPS for Lopez??

that would be amazing! if not, I want Chris Nelson in there.

by BringItHome on Jan 13, 2011 11:19 AM MST up reply actions  

Fewer walks, similar SLG.

I’m guessing around a .920 OPS. The difference in park effects will play a huge role, as will the protection in the lineup.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 11:22 AM MST up reply actions  

so expect him to be an all star pretty much

a second baseman with .920 OPS is an all star. Chase Utley has not posted better than .920 since 2007 and has been an all star every year since then.

by BringItHome on Jan 13, 2011 11:25 AM MST up reply actions  

WOW

I sure hope your right and if you are that sure makes the West look winnable for us.

by arpagamos on Jan 13, 2011 11:30 AM MST up reply actions  

Lopez doesn't have to post a .900 OPS for the West to look winnable for us.

Last year, Rockies second basement hit 200 points below that (not sure of the exact number) and if it wasn’t for a terrible finish, was in it for a while.+

I'm GoRockies!! everybody :P

by CentralCaliRox on Jan 13, 2011 4:24 PM MST up reply actions  

Coors field

probably doesn’t represent a 150 point increase in OPS, not even pre-humidor.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 11:39 AM MST up reply actions  

Considering his career .697 OPS, yeah, amazed at .800

Coors Field isn’t a magical “+.200 OPS” park. Yes, his SLG will be boosted by the power alleys. But a .920 OPS is absolutely ridiculous. Like late-90s ridiculous.

by Andrew Martin on Jan 13, 2011 11:39 AM MST up reply actions  

In this case, I really believe Coors is a magical +.100 OPS park, though.

And Safeco a magical -.60 or so OPS park, and I guess I’m hoping for the rest on luck.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 11:45 AM MST up reply actions  

And I would be more than happy with that.

My money is on .750 OPS, right around his career highs.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 11:48 AM MST up reply actions  

His career highs were actually around .765

Which he did as a 24 and 25 year old in the most suppressive hitting environment in the majors for a right handed pull hitter. He’s now moving to one of the most friendly hitting environments for that kind of player as a 27 year old. While I might be going high, I really think you might be undershooting here.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 12:02 PM MST up reply actions  

My thinking is

That the career high in a suppressive environment would look something like a career average year in our hitting environment. That is why I think it will be in the .750 -.775 range.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 12:05 PM MST up reply actions  

So

your saying that Walker and Helton don’t deserve the hall of fame?

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 11:47 AM MST up reply actions  

I don't know if Helton does.

What I’m actually trying to say is that Lopez is a much much better baseball player than people realize.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 11:48 AM MST up reply actions  

Also don't forget the player's performance can be affected by team atmosphere

Getting back into a winning atmosphere with a good family atmosphere my bring out the best in Lopez.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 11:50 AM MST up reply actions  

I agree with this

but wouldn’t a .920 ops place him as one of the best 2b in the game. Is he really that underrated?

by arpagamos on Jan 13, 2011 11:50 AM MST up reply actions  

When you factor in defense Lopez might have the edge as a total player though

Lopez was worth +16 runs according to Total Zone and +8.1 runs according to UZR while Cano was 0.0 Total Zone runs and -0.6 for UZR.

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 12:00 PM MST up reply actions  

well then, I guess we might be getting the best 2B in the majors next year.

My money’s still on Utley or Cano having more value, though. I’m guessing Lopez and Uggla will be a tier below.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 12:03 PM MST up reply actions  

If Lopez is on the same tier with Uggla

then O’Dowd made the deal of the year in the off-season.

I don’t see that happening, but I would love to be proved wrong.

TuLO + UbalDO + CarGO = LODO GO

by Maris6161 on Jan 13, 2011 12:10 PM MST up reply actions  

Thats what I was thinking

Rox Girl you have certainly built up my excitement for Lopez.

by arpagamos on Jan 13, 2011 12:16 PM MST up reply actions  

I completely agree with RG.

Regarding Lopez, and had the same feeling when the deal was announced.

by roxintober on Jan 13, 2011 12:36 PM MST up reply actions  

There's just no way.

This is the guy who has clauses built into his contract that he gets a bonus if he passes basic fitness tests.

I get that Seattle kills offense, but are we seriously saying that the best 2B in baseball was hiding in Seattle this whole time and 29 other GMs missed it?

How about Yuniesky Betancourt? Getting out of the graveyard of SafeCo didn’t help him much, he still sucks out loud. He’s also a line drive hitter with some pop, he just didn’t have the 2 good years that Lopez had.

by Andrew Martin on Jan 13, 2011 12:50 PM MST up reply actions  

well, uh, yeah, two good seasons by the time you're 25 definitely beats zero.

I really don’t think you get what happens when you combine a K rate as low as Lopez’s with his power in Coors Field. Think Freddy Sanchez 2006, except turn some of those 2B’s into HR’s.

Lopez isn’t a shmuck. You can’t debut as a 20 year old in the MLB, hit 25 HR’s as a 25 year old at Safeco and be a terrible player. In fact, you can’t do those things as a bad player. More than two good seasons inflating our view of him, I think most baseball fans are allowing two abnomally terrible seasons to deflate how he’s perceived.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 1:18 PM MST up reply actions  

Its what happens when

He’s the effigy of the SABR community!

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 1:20 PM MST up reply actions  

how can you say it's 2 abnormally terrible seasons?

It could just as easily be 2 abnormally awesome seasons.

I’m not saying he won’t get a boost in Coors Field, but to suggest he’d be anything better than an average 2B is really trying to talk yourself into something.

by Andrew Martin on Jan 13, 2011 1:20 PM MST up reply actions  

misread your post

I just mean that the inflation from 2 seasons could be just as potent as the deflation from 2 seasons.

by Andrew Martin on Jan 13, 2011 1:21 PM MST up reply actions  

Now that is odd...

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by hotdoglady on Jan 13, 2011 1:26 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah

After looking at 2010 and 2009 I though with a Road OPS like that plus a Home OPS inflation above that surely he would be .920 OPS like RG thinks and then I looked at 2008 and went huh.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 1:28 PM MST up reply actions  

Rox girl, can I kick you now?

Considering you told the community to do just that if you started getting too homerific/purple/irrationally optimistic.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 13, 2011 12:55 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

done. next time I see you, you're getting a swift kick in the derierre

In seriousness, I get what you’re saying, that a move to Coors, a better environment and positive regression in BABIP for a player with good past success could come together in a very positive way. It’s not like we have to go far to find an example of a non-tender quality player becoming one of the best 2B. Kelly Johnson worked out.

You went overboard with your OPS projections to make a point, and I doubt he will be going to the All Star Game, but I think your premise has validity in that his skills project to benefit from Coors more than most.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 13, 2011 1:31 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

I do think that in a year of a higher than his normal LD rate

that he would challenge for the batting title with just about any team. With the Rockies, he’d almost be a shoo-in if Cargo wasn’t already with us.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 1:35 PM MST up reply actions  

You're assuming a normal BABIP adjustment.

I’m saying that Lopez is the type of player with which you should assume an aggressive one, especially in a peak season.

Carlos Guillen never hit higher than .273 while with the Mariners, never had a higher than .753 OPS. He moved to Detroit in his age 28 season and OPS’ed .921. Adrian Beltre never had a higher than .802 OPS with the Mariners and moved to Boston for his age 31 season and was suddenly at .919. Beltre never hit more than 26 HR’s at Safeco and he was there during his peak.

I’m saying that if we assume Lopez in a peak year, .920 should be possible.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 1:54 PM MST up reply actions  

which says what?

a league average .327 BABIP or thereabouts for Coors and his career average BABIP on the road? Again, if I’m projecting a .920 OPS, I’m obviously taking the over and projecting a peak season and a better than xBABIP, in fact, I’m going something like .360/.310

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 2:04 PM MST up reply actions  

IAWTC

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 1:36 PM MST up reply actions  

A great example is Olivo

Who forsaw him OPSing over .900 at the break last year?

We all know what happened in the second half to Olivo but I’m going to hope that Tracy would have a shorter leash on Lopez if he followed the same footsteps

by purplesocks on Jan 13, 2011 1:46 PM MST up reply actions  

Lopez played at 3B last season.

He’s not a +8.1 UZR 2B. He’s a career -0.6 UZR/150 2B, which is passable. He’s a career 1 Rtot (TotalZone) 2B, and I’m sure there’s some significant figures issues there, I’d wager he’s hovering around 0 runs/year between the two metrics.

by Andrew Martin on Jan 13, 2011 12:41 PM MST up reply actions  

Damn I forgot about that

Ever since we picked him up I keep thinking of him as only a 2B for some reason.

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 1:14 PM MST up reply actions  

What kills me here

is that nobody on this board was excited about Lopez before the deal happening. Roxgirl, you are usually one of the most balanced posters on this board but in this case, there are too many stats and I think you are trying to find a silver lining that may not exist. This is one of the many reasons that I do not like all the new stats. I think the best comparison to Lopez is Manny Corpas. Early success then eating themselves out of playing shape. Once its gone who knows whether it will come back. Though after Barmes 2010 anything would look good. I really hope that there is a legitimate 2B battle and that Nelson gets a fair shake and that Lopez is not given the 2B job.

by RoxandRoll on Jan 13, 2011 4:46 PM MST up reply actions  

The organization has done all the right things lately

So I don’t think they will be handing any job to any player. If Lopez wants starting duty, he will be earning it.

And I would never compare Lopez the Corpas. Many people forget Corpas was a workhorse for us before his elbow went out.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 4:49 PM MST up reply actions  

Manny was great

but then he got his contract showed up out of shape and was never the same again. I just don’t know whether Lopez is on a downward path and whether it can be reversed.

The club has done everything right this offseason but last season they made several moves that were head scratchers – in particular sending Chacin down so that both Cook and Francis could take spots in the rotation.

The club has shown a reluctance to eat money so what worries me is because Lopez is making a few million next year, he would get a roster spot even if he does nothing in spring training.

by RoxandRoll on Jan 13, 2011 4:54 PM MST up reply actions  

They sent Chacin down

because he had option years and they were paying quite a bit of money to both Cook and Francis to be on the ML roster. They didn’t do too terribly either until they got injured, at which point Chacin came back up and showed that he didn’t want to leave again.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 13, 2011 4:56 PM MST up reply actions  

Cook

was horrible all of last year. Francis was ok for a few starts but nothing special. What they were paying them should not have impacted who was in the rotation. When they sent Chacin down, he had been the 2nd best started we had for the month prior to the demotion.

by RoxandRoll on Jan 13, 2011 4:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Yes, I know it sucks

But you have to keep in mind that they wern’t going to stuff 10 million dollars worth of contract in the minors or on another team.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 5:00 PM MST up reply actions  

And Cook was simply not "horrible all of last year"

He was atrocious early, improved, got hurt (or pitched hurt the whole time), came back, pitched two outstanding games, then got his leg broken.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 5:01 PM MST up reply actions  

sounds like Jason Hirsh circa 2007

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 13, 2011 5:07 PM MST up reply actions  

Actually, yes, very similar

And, didn’t Cook actually have one of his best K/9 rates last season? (Yes, tied for his best)

Which is not to say he pitched well, because he did not, on balance. But he was not in negative WAR territory.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 5:12 PM MST up reply actions  

Giambi

is what I worry about here. There is no way he should have been carried all of last year. He was practically worthless besides the Greinke game except in his role as unofficial coach.

I just do not want to see the same sort of thing happening with Lopez.

by RoxandRoll on Jan 13, 2011 4:57 PM MST up reply actions  

well this just isn't true

Go click the Rockies Player Reviews tab and find the one on Giambi. HE had one of the best OPS’s on the team, provided rest for Helton (immeasurable impact) and had his best month while Helton was on the DL.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 13, 2011 7:48 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Yes

but he was a statue at 1B and clogged up the bases whenever he got on them. Yes he drew a bunch of walks but besides the Greinke game, I can not recall one meaningful hit all season. Not saying he didn’t have any but there is such a thing as empty statistics.

Although you can not change the past, I honestly still feel that he was a waste of roster space and had Hawpe been given a legitimate shot at 1B he might have produced better than Giambi (or even Helton).

by RoxandRoll on Jan 13, 2011 9:00 PM MST up reply actions  

I would like to argue that he had an impact in this game too

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 13, 2011 9:17 PM MST up reply actions  

OK I missed the 2 games you guys are pointing out

but I was not the only one on the board over the summer campaigning for Giambi’s release. The fact is a good OPS did not make him a good player last season and a good resource last season. Can’t begin to tell you how many times Heath Bell, Broxton, or Wilson blew fastballs past him late in games last year. When teams used to carry 10 pitchers and 15 position players, there was space for a one trick pony on the roster, in these days of 5 player benches, more flexibility and someone who can actually play in the field is needed.

by RoxandRoll on Jan 13, 2011 10:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Well

every team is going to give a roster spot to a player with a guarenteed salary, because it’s guarenteed.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 4:57 PM MST up reply actions  

Disagree with you here

Other teams have shown more willingness than the Rox to eat money. If Lopez does nothing in spring training he absolutely needs to go whether he is making $3 mil or not. This team is to close to throw away a roster spot.

by RoxandRoll on Jan 13, 2011 5:00 PM MST up reply actions  

Not many do that

It’s bad business, unless your the Dodgers.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 5:02 PM MST up reply actions  

Teams showing willingness to eat money

Sure, the Yanks and Sawx and the like.

Mid market teams, generally speaking, do not simply eat payroll.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 5:02 PM MST up reply actions  

Looking for an article

that show writeoffs but I know the DBax who are considered mid-market wrote off a ton with Russ Ortiz. I seem to remember the Chisox (ok not small market but not the 2 headed monster either) writing off a real large one as well. I can’t recall the Rox ever doing this unless you count the one month of Hawpe last year. This team needs to carry the 25 best players regardless of salary as the margin (with San Francisco) is not big enough to be carrying dead weight.

by RoxandRoll on Jan 13, 2011 8:56 PM MST up reply actions  

I am that way about Wiggy.

 My personal night mare is every expidient and excuse found to Bat Wiggy fifth.

"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana

by Oldfoagie on Jan 13, 2011 7:53 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah I wouldn't compare to Manny either

If you want a lazy, fat player to compare to then I would say Garret Atkins is your best bet.

by purplesocks on Jan 13, 2011 5:00 PM MST up reply actions  

if he posts an OPS of .850 or greater next season

I will buy a Tulo jersey and take a picture in front of Coors Field for our home playoff opener for all here to see.

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 13, 2011 11:40 AM MST up reply actions  

I would rather buy a Lopez jersey

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 13, 2011 11:41 AM MST up reply actions  

personalize a rockies jersey

that says #8
Galiardi

two Icehouse 24 oz beers = $3.20 two "fancy" Bud Light 24 oz beers = $5.00

NOW who comes out on top?

by frightened inmate #2 on Jan 13, 2011 11:42 AM MST up reply actions  

but Galiardi wears #3-

ohhhhh I get it.

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 13, 2011 11:43 AM MST up reply actions  

Me Too

And taking some saved vacation time to go watch. Thanks the heaves fo in-laws that live in Denver

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 11:43 AM MST up reply actions  

Mark it down.

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 13, 2011 11:43 AM MST up reply actions  

Last year Robinson Cano had a .381 OBP, hit 29 home runs and still only had a .914 OPS

In fact, no 2B in the game last season had an OPS of .920. There’s no way Lopez ever has the OPS Cano had a year ago because he does not have the OBP skills to get anywhere close to .381 and to make up for that he would probably have to hit 40 HR to reach a .920 OPS.

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 11:33 AM MST up reply actions  

Fun Fact:

Jose Lopez’ projected .920 OPS would put him on par with pre-humidor Andres Galarraga.

.316/.367/.577

If Jose Lopez posts a .920 OPS I will buy a Jim Tracy jersey.

by Andrew Martin on Jan 13, 2011 1:16 PM MST up reply actions  

Buy a Lopez jersey instead

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 1:20 PM MST up reply actions  

Ive wanted to buy a Spilborghs jersey

for like 3 years now, which would be the first jersey I’ve bought. But as a broke grad student, I can’t really afford the 200$ price tag. Why are these stupid things priced so high.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 3:06 PM MST up reply actions  

I have a few tshirt jerseys.

They work well on summer night games and then at the bars afterward. I’d like a jersey but being so expensive, I’d worry about screwing it up at the bars after a game

But thats just me. I’m sure most folks don’t hit up the Lodo after games like I do.

by purplesocks on Jan 13, 2011 3:24 PM MST up reply actions  

only the Falling Rock

Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some more groundballs. Its more democratic. - Crash Davis

by DAWNMARIE01 on Jan 13, 2011 3:35 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

rec'd

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 13, 2011 3:40 PM MST up reply actions  

How do those things fit?

are they true to size or a little small or large? I have a Helton shirt that’s a medium but I think it fits more like a large…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 3:38 PM MST up reply actions  

Depends where you get them

My Holliday one from I think Dicks fits normally. I think its a medium.

My Ubaldo one I got at a game says Large but it is huuuuuge. But I shrank it down pretty good so now it fits like a large.

by purplesocks on Jan 13, 2011 4:35 PM MST up reply actions  

Could I assume then that the online store

will also sell them bigger?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 5:11 PM MST up reply actions  

oooo the game shirt was a freebie one?

hmmmm

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 5:17 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah it was one of the free giveaways

But I shrunk it quite a bit and plan on wearing it to any Ubaldo pitched game I go to this coming year

by purplesocks on Jan 13, 2011 5:19 PM MST up reply actions  

But you still won't wear it :-)

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 1:21 PM MST up reply actions  

He will wear it -

but only if it is a good match up situation.

Hebrew National Hot Dogs - The Official Hot Dog of the Colorado Rockies.

Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.

Video tips on posting links and images to Purple Row - Click Here -

My Photography Website

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by hotdoglady on Jan 13, 2011 1:22 PM MST up reply actions  

. . . and he's feeling very special that day

Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some more groundballs. Its more democratic. - Crash Davis

by DAWNMARIE01 on Jan 13, 2011 1:51 PM MST up reply actions  

If Jose Lopez posts a .920 OPS...

we’ll all be buying Carney Lansford jerseys…to wear while we build a statue in his honor!

Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.

I used to be normal until I met these losers I now call my friends.

"Cheap tacos are rightous!"-My Daughter

by RdRnnr on Jan 13, 2011 1:28 PM MST up reply actions  

Lansford jerseys

will be purchased if Iannetta, Smith and Stewart improve. Lopez should already be an improvement over what we had in the past, albeit slight.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 13, 2011 1:31 PM MST up reply actions  

Now imagine for a while the lineup I posted above

With Smith, Stewart, and Iannetta all becoming what we want them to be. That will be fun to watch. Here’s to Lansford hope he works miracles

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 1:36 PM MST up reply actions  

IF not it's still Don Baylors fault...

Hebrew National Hot Dogs - The Official Hot Dog of the Colorado Rockies.

Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.

Video tips on posting links and images to Purple Row - Click Here -

My Photography Website

My Photography on Facebook

by hotdoglady on Jan 13, 2011 1:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Just because he's not with the team

doesn’t mean he can’t call players and offer “advice”

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 3:07 PM MST up reply actions  

Nooooo . . .

Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some more groundballs. Its more democratic. - Crash Davis

by DAWNMARIE01 on Jan 13, 2011 3:36 PM MST up reply actions  

Well this is PurpleRow...

I’d guess hot dogs as a first option. I’d be open to other suggestions in the OT.

Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.

I used to be normal until I met these losers I now call my friends.

"Cheap tacos are rightous!"-My Daughter

by RdRnnr on Jan 13, 2011 1:38 PM MST up reply actions  

Chris Nelson has the longest uphill road of the second base candidates towards making the team.

PROJECT LIBRA: Depth / Transactions
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 13, 2011 2:45 PM MST up reply actions  

like, 2006 Atkins? or second half 2007?

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 13, 2011 11:19 AM MST up reply actions  

Personally, I would say

2007 Atkins as a ceiling.

We had better hope the guy bats .300 though otherwise that OBP is gonna suck…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 12:59 PM MST up reply actions  

I agree with you

maybe not to the tune of a .920 OPS, but I can def see the logic and hope he improves.

The only shitty part about that prediction is that if it comes true, with Beltre it was about leaving SafeCo and reaching his potential, and with Lopez it will be about going to Coors and artificially-inflating it.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 12:47 PM MST up reply actions  

This seems like a good place to say this

my crazy prediction right now is that Blackmon is the opening day starter in RF (or LF)

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 11:01 AM MST up reply actions  

Yeah I'll call that crazy

and I’m not sure how to feel about it. It would mean 1 of 2 things happening. Blackmon has a monster Spring Training thus forcing the organization’s hand or we have a rash of injuries in our OF

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 11:16 AM MST up reply actions  

It's not that crazy

all he has to do is preform a lot better than Smith or Spilly, neither of which the club seem to have much faith in.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 11:17 AM MST up reply actions  

Don't you still think he

would have to have a fantastic spring to get there. Or maybe better stated Smith and Spilly would have to have a horrible Spring. I don’t see it

by arpagamos on Jan 13, 2011 11:32 AM MST up reply actions  

Well, yes

I think he will have a fantastic spring.

Besides, it’s my crazy prediction, so let me have fun with it.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 11:42 AM MST up reply actions  

Can't see it happening

Mainly because they don’t want his service clock to start ticking. Maybe a June call up like Posey was but my guess is Smith bounces back a bit this season.

by RoxandRoll on Jan 13, 2011 11:59 AM MST up reply actions  

Great Rock Pile, RG.

This kind of writing is what sets Purple Row apart from others IMO.

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby

by pedalpusher on Jan 13, 2011 10:52 AM MST reply actions  

Here is something crazy

Fowler has never recorded an at bat when the count reaches 3-0

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 11:09 AM MST reply actions  

Really?

That’s crazy

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 11:14 AM MST up reply actions  

I screwed that up a little

He has never recorded an out or a hit on a 3-0 pitch, but he has done stuff after a 3-0 count.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 11:16 AM MST up reply actions  

Okay, that makes more sense

Still interesting though

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 11:38 AM MST up reply actions  

Meaning, he walks everytime?

Optimism Warrior
2011 Colorado Zombies-DeadWalking to the NL West crown
Todd and Troy: Because they ARE Rockies.
QPU #4, YHEG #4, Proud Member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Jan 13, 2011 11:16 AM MST up reply actions  

Or takes a strike or fouls off the pitch.

In other words he has never put the ball in play on a 3-0 pitch something that yo don’t really mind from a leadoff hitter actually

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 11:25 AM MST up reply actions  

I would be surprised to find out that he's had the green light on 3-0 very often.

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby

by pedalpusher on Jan 13, 2011 12:59 PM MST up reply actions  

That's what a leadoff guy needs to do.

Dex, I love ya, but this whole thing about not hitting leadoff, please, get over it, and leadoff for the rest of these guys.

People ask me what I do during the winter when there is no baseball. I tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 13, 2011 12:27 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

I don't quite understand it

His numbers have been better as a leadoff guy anyway.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 12:30 PM MST up reply actions  

again, I think we read somewhere "I like hitting 2" because EYJ was batting leadoff

and then it got blown into “Dex hates hitting leadoff! He’s uncomfortable there and refuses to bat leadoff! He’s holding out on his contract because he has to hit leadoff!”

by Andrew Martin on Jan 13, 2011 12:32 PM MST up reply actions  

I hope this is only the case.

People ask me what I do during the winter when there is no baseball. I tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 13, 2011 12:33 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Indeed, there was only one time where anything remotely like this was mentioned, and it was specifically regarding Dex's comfort with the way he came up hitting behind EY2 through the minors.

It was probably further encouraged when Tracy started 2010 with CarGo leading off instead of Dex.

PROJECT LIBRA: Depth / Transactions
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 13, 2011 2:50 PM MST up reply actions  

I didn't realize this

but Jones had a .364 wOBA last year despite a .239 BABIP Thats pretty crazy. In Coors, he could probably do very well.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 12:10 PM MST reply actions  

Now it's just hoping that no one else will have enough interest

so that we can get a low-end 1 year deal and give him a chance to recover, tear the cover off the ball, and sign a big contract someplace else as a type A free agent. Thus giving us the best of all worlds.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 12:14 PM MST up reply actions  

I think Jones could have a

.250/.350/.500 season at Coors with ~30 home runs in 500 ab’s and above average defense in a corner spot.

My only question is if he’ll be useful on the road…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 12:50 PM MST up reply actions  

yea

and I think he should be. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he could post that line.

I like his power and I’m somewhat concerned about our offensive pop once you get past CarGoWitzki…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 12:52 PM MST up reply actions  

Hello Operator?

What’s the number for Curacao? I need to speak to Mr. Jones.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 12:56 PM MST up reply actions  

Expanding our sphere of influence into the Dutch Antilles...

The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jan 13, 2011 8:14 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm sterting (well, I've been thinking this for a while)

but it does look like signing Wiggington to that deal was a massive mistake. Jones is both offensively and defensively superior, and available for probably half the cash. The only upside of Wiggington right now is his flexibility to play the infield, but we have other guys who could do that as well.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 12:15 PM MST reply actions  

We just had to meet the fat-guy-off-the-bench quota.

It had to be for just IF depth. Jones may have been able to backup at 1B and OF but no where else.

People ask me what I do during the winter when there is no baseball. I tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 13, 2011 12:22 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

While true

We could have used Herrera to do the same thing, at an 8th of the cost.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 12:25 PM MST up reply actions  

But he's a good clubhouse guy sooooooo.....

although now that I mention it, if DOD is really focusing on organizational culture/climate, maybe he weights clubhouse demeanor more highly than others…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 12:55 PM MST up reply actions  

not that this fully justifies the Wiggy signing though...

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 12:57 PM MST up reply actions  

Morales

Did anyone else notice the by the end of last season that his delivery had changed some?

People ask me what I do during the winter when there is no baseball. I tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 13, 2011 12:19 PM MST via mobile reply actions  

No

I ran to the cellar and closed my eyes every time he pitched.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 12:20 PM MST up reply actions   2 recs

And you still probably saw too much.

Well, I believe in the soul, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.

by Rox Fever on Jan 13, 2011 12:21 PM MST up reply actions  

Ha!

Me too!

Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some more groundballs. Its more democratic. - Crash Davis

by DAWNMARIE01 on Jan 13, 2011 12:21 PM MST up reply actions  

Yes.

I pointed that out in a thread somewhere. His delivery speed was altered significantly in AAA, particularly from the windup.

PROJECT LIBRA: Depth / Transactions
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 13, 2011 2:51 PM MST up reply actions  

btw, no player review today unless someone elae had something up their sleeve

I was cold and tired and watched a movie instead.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 13, 2011 1:00 PM MST via mobile reply actions  

^

Obviously did not slop pigs enough growing up. ;-)

Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.

I used to be normal until I met these losers I now call my friends.

"Cheap tacos are rightous!"-My Daughter

by RdRnnr on Jan 13, 2011 1:14 PM MST up reply actions  

nope

I cleaned manure out of horse stalls instead.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 13, 2011 1:35 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

And this is where I'm thankful

I wasn’t raised on a farm. Only 1 generation removed from those farms though.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 1:38 PM MST up reply actions  

I hated it growing up, or at least I thought I did

But it was worth it to have room for a soccer field and bastball field, and it has helped me get at least two jobs since a farm youth implies mechanical aptitude and work ethic. It’s unfair to assume those qualities are absent in those who didn’t live a rural childhood, but I think the reverse is reasonable c

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 13, 2011 2:25 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Thankfully I grew up in a small town where I was 2-3 blocks

from all the sports fields and also a park that was wide open with no trees. I agree though that I’m lacking mechanical aptitude and also the ability to make myself get up at 5:00 in the morning on a consistent basis.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 2:29 PM MST up reply actions  

But do you tweet about baseball?

Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some more groundballs. Its more democratic. - Crash Davis

by DAWNMARIE01 on Jan 13, 2011 1:54 PM MST up reply actions  

@poseidonsfist

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 13, 2011 2:30 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Quite bullish on Lopez

Seeing some of the figures and hypotheticals thrown out here for Lopez is rather staggering. Here are some numbers to chew on before proclaiming him the second coming of an Uggla.

Career OPS: .697
Career Road OPS: .725
Career IsoD: .031
Career-high IsoD: .037
Career-high Walks: 27 (687 PAs)
Swing Percentage: 50.8%
O-Swing Percentage: 31.7%
Contact Percentage: 88%
O-Contact Percentage: 79.5%

Last season, he swung and made contact at more pitches out of the zone than any time previously in his career (37%/79.5%).

Jose Lopez does not walk, was not even an acceptable hitter on the road and swings at a ton of slop outside the zone. Saying that he’d have a .920 OPS (even in Coors) or that he’d contend for a batting title even with a fluky BABIP season is absurd.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 2:04 PM MST reply actions  

While I agree that a projection will in no way have him approaching a .920 or anywhere close to that

I do believe that given the right confluence of events I could see him hitting upwards of .850. I think that’s a difference between projections and predictions. A projection has to stay within the bounds of what he has statistically done. A prediction (wild or otherwise) can step outside that.

Also, I think RG though she has backpedaled off her original statement has also successfully shown that’s its not completely outside the realm of possibilities. I’m not expecting Lopez to hit .920 but at the same time I’m not going to be making sure bets against it either. Sorry I’ll remain jerseyless.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 2:23 PM MST up reply actions  

which brings me back to my original point of batting him second.

Force pitchers to throw him strikes, and good things will happen. It’s no coincidence that he had what was likely his best season when he batted mostly second in front of Raul Ibanez in 2008.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 2:26 PM MST up reply actions  

I don't want Lopez batting any higher than 6th....

We have Smith to bat second and take some pitches to allow Fowler some SB chances. The highert OBP and better pop than Lopez should mean Smith bats ahead of him in the order. Way ahead of him. Or we could consider Helton at #2 for the same reason…..paitence. But his speed clogs the bases.

by GoRoxGo on Jan 13, 2011 2:36 PM MST up reply actions  

What I do know and want

Is that Cargo and Tulo are batting 3 and 4 from now till I"m halfway to retirement and that makes me happy.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 13, 2011 2:38 PM MST up reply actions  

Also, it's always better to have a patient lefty hit 2nd....

since it’s harder for the catcher to get a clear view to throw to second base, as opposed to when a righthanded hitter bats 2nd. Fowler has the upside of 50 SBs according to The Baseball Forecaster, but has no shot of that without a patient hitter batting behind him, preferrably from the left side.

by GoRoxGo on Jan 13, 2011 2:39 PM MST up reply actions  

The thing

with Lopez batting second, while it doesn’t allow Dexter to get stolen bases at a high rate, unless he improves himself, it does have the opportunity to get him from first to third or home because Lopez has the high LD%. Moving Dexter to third would allow Carlos to score him even with a sac fly, instead of requiring a hit.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 13, 2011 2:42 PM MST up reply actions  

Again, you're not putting your players in the best position to succeed that way.

More strikes are going to be thrown to the second hitter than any other slot in the Rockies lineup, meaning the patient approaches of Helton and Smith are going to be wasted, while a high contact hacker like Lopez will be junk-balled to death at the bottom of the order. Helton’s OBP was only .340 batting second last season (compared to .438 batting fifth), Smith’s was .275 compared to .364 batting seventh.

Lopez’s career OBP batting second is .318, his highest, and his BABIP out of that slot is .309. If you give those a Coors adjustment, he’ll be just fine.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 2:45 PM MST up reply actions  

RG, I totally get what you're saying

but a quick question, even if Lopez’s abilities are maximized and his OBP swells to like .350 (about 30 points north of his career high) because of Coors + more strikes in the 2-hole, would you still prefer to bat him second, or swap him with say Helton who I could see posting an OBP of .380, even though it would mean wasting some of Helton’s pitch recognition and Lopez’s OBP falling to let’s say .335 in his new spot?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 3:18 PM MST up reply actions  

It's an easy answer.

If you have a choice between:

1. Fowler .380
2. Lopez .350
3. Gonzalez .370
4. Tulo .380
5. Helton .420
6. Stewart .340
7. Smith .360
8. Iannetta .390

And

1. Fowler .380
2. Helton .380
3. Gonzalez .370
4. Tulo .380
5. Stewart .340
6. Lopez .310
7. Smith .360
8. Iannetta .390

which do you choose?

You’re giving away far too many outs in both slots to make the relatively small bump in runners for Cargo and Tulo worth the sacrifice.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 3:25 PM MST up reply actions  

If it's posed that way, then it is an easy choice

I have an easier time seeing Lopez’s OBP increase going from the 6 slot to the 2 slot, than I do seeing Helton’s decrease of 40 points. I think a .420 OBP at any spot in the lineup would be an overestimation for Helton and I also think using last years figures is a little flimsy since he really didn’t have the sample size in any spot to say anything confidently. So ultimately, I agree with you on some level, but not on all…

Also, with those lineups, I’d probably bat Iannetta in the 2-hole, and leave Helton in the 5th spot even for the sacrifice of 40 points of OBP from Lopez…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 3:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah, that's probabIy high, I was going by his career .417 OBP in 943 PA's batting fifth.

I think you have to have Iannetta, Helton or Smith 8th, because that’s where the patient approach the most dividends.

Again, dropping Lopez is a bad bad decision as it creates a hole in the bottom of the lineup that doesn’t have to be there.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 3:41 PM MST up reply actions  

I think you could argue that patience the 2 hole pays off more

both the guy on base and on deck get to see more pitches, drives up the pitch count sooner etc.

by BringItHome on Jan 13, 2011 3:51 PM MST up reply actions  

You always want the guys who get on base more to hit highest in the lineup.

That’s just common sense. Fewer outs earlier in the game means more opportunities to score and a better chance of getting into the opponent’s bullpen.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 3:53 PM MST up reply actions  

Of course the whole point

is to not give away outs as they’re the most precious resource – which is what RG’s scenario offers. It’s correct at the macro level but more counter-intuitive at the micro level…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 3:58 PM MST up reply actions  

No, common sense is to make the fewest outs period.

And I think this is part of where the SABR community has gone astray.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 3:58 PM MST up reply actions  

I don't think anyone's claiming otherwise

by putting the players who create the fewest outs in the slots where they have more opportunities, you create fewer outs

by Andrew Martin on Jan 13, 2011 4:04 PM MST up reply actions  

Honestly, you're probably right

because if you think about it

Those higher OBP figures are outs saved regardless of what happens.

By prioritizing simply the highest OBP in the 2 spot, we’re still banking on two events – the 2 hitter actually getting on base and then the 3/4 hitters driving him in.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:06 PM MST up reply actions  

Wait, what is suboptimal?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:12 PM MST up reply actions  

cmon guy

which scenario is suboptimal?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:16 PM MST up reply actions  

if

RG’s scenario saves us more outs overall, even with the lower 2-spot OBP, then isn’t it optimal?

It really comes down to how much more valuable/frequent runs from the 2-hole are and if those added runs from helton’s higher obp are more than the higher overall OBP figures with Lopez batting second.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:20 PM MST up reply actions  

Does wOBA

really give us what we’re looking for between these 2 scenarios? Does it account for lineup spot?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:34 PM MST up reply actions  

wOBA by itself does not

There’s lineup assembly studies that build a “SABR lineup” and there’s also just the concept of mathematical optimization.

by Andrew Martin on Jan 13, 2011 4:35 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm still not sure though

which lineup either SABR or math optimization would favor in this scenario.

I’m not sure if the 30-40 point increase in OBP in the 2 hole offsets the decrease in 70-80 point decrease in OBP overall in this scenario…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:47 PM MST up reply actions  

But then, why should we assume that Todd's OBP in the 2 hole

would be so much lower than if he were in the 5 hole?

I’m not sure we get a 70-80 point decrease overall.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 4:49 PM MST up reply actions  

In the original scenarios

Helton posts a .380 obp in the 2 hole, but a .415-.420 one in the 5 hole. Lopez posts a .360 obp in the 2 hole, but a .310 one in the 7/8 hole.

I adjusted the #‘s slightly and assumed helton’s obp in the 2 hole would be around .390, thus decreasing by 20 – 30, and Lopez’s would also decrease by 40-50.

So overall it’s a 60-80 reduction despite a 30 point increase out of the 2 hole.

Again, no clue what would happen, these were just the scenarios

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:57 PM MST up reply actions  

because it's wrong to assume that he would get as many walks.

In the NL last season, only 7.6% of all 2nd hitters were BB’s, compared to 9.5% of all fifth hitters. Again, it goes back to what I’m saying, there are just more strikes thrown to 2nd hitters overall.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 5:01 PM MST up reply actions  

There might be some selection issues in there

with more patient hitters batting 5 and less patient batting 2 throughout the league – not that it should be that way…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 5:03 PM MST up reply actions  

Also, sorry for unleashing this monster question

when you had grants to write up.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 5:04 PM MST up reply actions  

This is how I see it

Helton would now be an ideal #2 hitter, for those very reasons.

Yes, ideally he’d be able to run faster than I can. But really, if he can’t go from 1st to 3rd on a Tulo or Cargo knock, then Tulo/Cargo probably weren’t going to end up with doubles there, anyway.

At worst, Helton costs CarGo a couple of triple that turn into doubles.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 3:54 PM MST up reply actions  

Call me old fashioned

but I just like at least a little speed there which is why I like spilly/smith in the two hole OR dex if EY2 happens to make the team and bat lead off.

by BringItHome on Jan 13, 2011 3:56 PM MST up reply actions  

Well yes, that makes sense, but say that #2 were EY, for the purpose of this discussion

Doesn’t matter much how fast you are, if you can only get on base 30% of the time.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 4:26 PM MST up reply actions  

Yes, but he won't be hitting #2 this year ;-)

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 4:34 PM MST up reply actions  

What about when Helton is at 2nd and Cargo at 1st and Tulo hits one back up the middle

Helton is more prone to getting held at third than Smith/Spilly/Lopez and then instead of 1 run scored with runners at first and third, we have bases loaded.

Just another scenario where Helton’s lack of speed hinders us.

by purplesocks on Jan 13, 2011 4:43 PM MST up reply actions  

Okay, but the likely incidence of this happening exactly in this way

is very likely outweighed by the increase in OBP in the 2 hole in all instances where Tulo does not hit a medium liner up the middle with Helton on 2nd and Cargo on 1st.

And also, this doesn’t account for weak armed CFers like Juan Pierre. There’s a decent # of these instances where Helton’s as likely to be sent home as not.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 4:46 PM MST up reply actions  

Yea, I saw that, but I'd hesitate to use career numbers

He’s not nearly the same hitter and he’s getting intentionally walked 15 – 20 times less than in his prime. Also, his OBP out of the 2 spot prior to 2010 was .393 (if we want to discount 2010’s numbers due to general instability).

One other thing that would have to be considered is that Fowler would have more opportunity to steal bases with Helton batting second (which can be good or bad depending on if Fowler feels like being an effective base stealer for the first time in his career).

Hopefully Lopez does the right thing and magically doubles his walk rate to like 8% making the decision much easier…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 3:56 PM MST up reply actions  

when did Helton hit fifth in his prime?

This is why I’m okay using them, as they’re almost all from the last few seasons.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 3:59 PM MST up reply actions  

This is a good point

you may be right about all of this.

Other question, if we’re assuming that Iannetta, Smith, and Helton will all have OBPs between .370 and .400, would it be wiser to bat one of them 9th and bat the pitcher 8th?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:01 PM MST up reply actions  

Also,

I know the studies have shown that the difference between batting the pitcher 8th or 9th is tiny (though in favor of batting him 8th), but most of these simulations do not involve an 8 hitter with OBP’s in this .370-.390 range…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:49 PM MST up reply actions  

Absolutely impeccably argued

Couldn’t agree more. Smith in the 2 hole was a complete disaster last year.

by BostonTransplant on Jan 13, 2011 3:20 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Small samples any way you slice it.

All of those starts in 2009 were against RHP, 17 of 27 at Coors, Chase or CBP.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 3:38 PM MST up reply actions  

Smith was unlucky anyway you slice it too.

And I don’t put too much stock in how players have performed in particular lineup spots. Sure, there are differences in what pitches you see depending on who’s on base/behind you, but I think that most players will see similar pitches no matter where they hit. The pitcher just wants to get them out in the best way possible for that individual batter.

IMO Smith needs to be in a valuable lineup spot (2-hole or 5-hole) next year. His xBABIP vs BABIP shows that he “should” (ohh how I hate that word) have had an AVG of .290ish. Pretty great for a 2 hole or 5 hole hitter.

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 7:42 PM MST up reply actions  

RG, batting order doesn't matter as much...

as some fans think, except for the fact that you want to have your best hitters hitting high up in the order, and your worst hitters down in the order. This increases plate appearances for the better hitters while limiting them for the marginal hitters.

Lopez, Coors-aided or not, is a lesser hitter than either Smith or Helton (assuming Todd returns to .280/.380/.430). Also, I’d much rather have a lefty hitting a line single to rightfield to allow Fowler to go from 1st to 3rd than a righty like Lopez lacing a one-hop liner to leftfield, which forces Fowler to stop at 2nd base.

I also don’t buy the idea that Lopez will benefit from more strikes in the 2-hole any more than the way past 2-hole hitters like Barmes or Uribe benefited. They did so poorly from the 2-hole, eventually they were demoted to the 8-hole.

When in doubt, OBP should ALWAYS win out for the 2-hole, as well as the superior batting skills.

by GoRoxGo on Jan 13, 2011 3:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Again, tell that to Ryan Ludwick or Gaby Sanchez.

Batting second in front of a superstar makes an MLB player’s job a lot easier.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 4:00 PM MST up reply actions  

Andre Ethier

in front of Manny comes to mind

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:03 PM MST up reply actions  

There's no significant data to suggest that protection exists.

Batting in front of a better hitter has not shown over the course of years of data to provide any significant increase in hitting stats.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 4:09 PM MST up reply actions  

Thank you....

for dispelling that myth, Cecil.

by GoRoxGo on Jan 13, 2011 4:18 PM MST up reply actions  

Did they ask the right question?

Seriously, have you actually looked at how flawed these studies are? Look at this one. How rigorous is it?

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 4:20 PM MST up reply actions  

Sigh...

Because B-Pro is the be all and end all of analysis. Try this one.

Using per pitch data from 2002 through 2006, the results show that better on-deck hitters have a positive and significant effect on both the strike location and fastball inputs, and hence, protection does exist in so far as a pitcher adjusts his approach and a batter enjoys multiple advantages when a good hitter is on-deck.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 4:30 PM MST up reply actions  

That link, at best, shows that we don't really know if it exists or not.

The data itself is conflicting as to whether or not protection exists. That’s hardly compelling proof that Lopez is going to see more fastballs hitting 2nd.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 4:36 PM MST up reply actions  

Continuing, the point is that:

While Lopez’s “skillset” may benefit more from Coors than an average player (i.e. more balls in play w/ line drives), his past seasons have not given any indication that he is a consistent OBP threat.

IMO, just take wOBA’s for each player and gimmie:

1. Fowler
2. Smith
3. CarGo
4. Tulo
5. Helton
6. Stewart
7. Lopez
8. Iannetta

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 7:46 PM MST up reply actions  

Ugh ... why do people think Seth Smith is any good?

Is it still that run of late game dingers in, what was it, 08?

I dearly love the Rox and can overrate my guys with the best of them, but I’ll call a spade a spade: He’s a borderline ML talent who has no business starting for a good team. And hitting second? Puh leeze.

by BostonTransplant on Jan 13, 2011 3:25 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

I thought Jose Lopez was the worst player ever

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 13, 2011 3:40 PM MST up reply actions  

He can't be any worse than Don Baylor

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:03 PM MST up reply actions  

Because he was fantastic in 2009 in a part time role

And his BABIP suggests that he was very unlucky in 2010. If his BABIP normalizes to his 2010 xBABIP, then his line is more like:

.290/.365/.510. Pretty darn good if you ask me.

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 7:48 PM MST up reply actions  

You have to look closer at the numbers.

In 350 PAs in the 2-hole in 2008, Lopez hit .314/.331/.428. He also spent 242 PAs hitting 5th, where he actually had a higher OPS (.811) with the same OBP and better IsoD (.036 compared to .017).

Plus, what incentive is there for pitchers to throw Lopez strikes? Yes, he’ll have good hitters behind him, but what does that matter when Lopez has no concept of taking pitches anyways? Pitchers aren’t going to throw him any more strikes because they know he’s going to swing at most of what’s thrown to him.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 3:42 PM MST up reply actions  

Lets hope the NL and its pitchers

are a little behind on its AL scouting reports

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 3:43 PM MST up reply actions  

Am I the only person that noticed that Ryan Ludwick put up a .374 BABIP batting second in front of Pujols

but crashed and burned when he was asked to bat behind Adrian Gonzalez? Or that the Florida Marlins got Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison to exceed people’s wildest expectations by batting them ahead of Hanley Ramirez?

Not many pitchers are going to risk walking a hitter ahead of Gonzalez, particularly a light hitting 2B like Lopez. He will get strikes, a lot more there than he would anywhere else in the lineup, and that’s going to help him a ton. Coors Field will do the rest.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 3:56 PM MST up reply actions  

That's missing the point.

They won’t have to worry about risking walking him, because he has not once shown the ability to repeatedly recognize pitches and lay off of pitches outside of the zone. There is absolutely no reason for them to change their approach when Jose Lopez has been the same kind of hitter for 5 years running now.

As to your point about Ludwick, he’s a right-handed pull hitter who moved from Busch to Petco. That’s going to kill anybody. Also, noting his .374 BABIP isn’t exactly a point in his favor, as that’s well into fluke sample territory.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 4:00 PM MST up reply actions  

Except that Jon Jay had a BABIP of .353 as Ludwick's replacement.

The second slot is typically the second highest BABIP (to the third, where most team’s best hitter is) even though a majority of teams have better hitters batting either first or fourth.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 4:03 PM MST up reply actions  

Jay had a similar BABIP hitting in the other spots of the order, though.

.353 hitting 2nd, .350 overall, with 130 of his PAs coming somewhere other than 2nd. That’s far from significant.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 4:06 PM MST up reply actions  

The NL as a whole had a BABIP out of the second slot of .313

Second only to the third slot’s .317, yet higher OPS’s in the 4, 5, and 6 slots, and higher OBP’s in the 4th and 5th slots. Is that a big enough sample for you? It’s a real phenomenon, I don’t know why it’s so hard to wrap your head around it. Lopez will get more strikes thrown to him batting second than any slot in the lineup, and as you point out yourself, that’s when he does his most damage.

by Rox Girl on Jan 13, 2011 4:12 PM MST up reply actions  

uh

this is getting a little heated

I don’t think there’s every been a discussion this detailed about Jose Lopez. Ever.

by Andrew Martin on Jan 13, 2011 4:16 PM MST up reply actions  

WELCOME TO THE ROW LOPEZ

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:21 PM MST up reply actions  

HOPE YOU LIKE OBJECTIVE PURPLE TINTED ANALYSIS

by BringItHome on Jan 13, 2011 4:22 PM MST up reply actions  

You're blanketing the issue incorrectly.

Do players hitting second get more strikes thrown to them? It’s absolutely possible, yes. Could that explain the higher BABIP? Again, possible, but there are certainly other ways to explain it.

What you’re seemingly refusing to consider is that this isn’t going to matter, because these situations happen on a case-by-case basis. Lopez being in the 2-hole doesn’t automatically predicate he’ll get more strikes. It doesn’t work that way. Pitchers and managers have scouting reports on him and know what his M.O. is. He swings. At everything. They’re not going to just up and change their method of attack against him because maybe he’ll learn to take a pitch with CarGo behind him. It doesn’t work that way.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 4:16 PM MST up reply actions  

I think RG's suggestion makes a lot of sense in a perfect world

I’m hesitant to adopt it only because I feel it requires more assumptions to go our way.

I feel comfortable expecting a .370-.390 OBP from a healthy Helton in the 2 spot. If he’s healthy, I pretty much expect this to happen.

However, the other scenario rests on Lopez adjusting to Coors pretty well, getting more strikes throughout the season in the 2-spot (which as you point out may not happen if pitchers adjust), as well as Helton’s OBP being close to .420 in the 5 spot.

Of course, the counter is that Lopez has been able to put up .280 and .290 batting average seasons in poor hitting environments already with the entire league aware of his deficiencies.

However, there has been a trend of Lopez receiving much much more off-speed stuff the past two seasons and his batting averages have fallen so maybe the league took a while to catch on and he hasn’t responded well…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:31 PM MST up reply actions  

Lopez is able to have a "higher" batting average because of the sheer volume of swings he takes.

The law of averages works for him in that a decent amount of those swings will make contact and a decent amount of the contact will find base hits. It comes at the expense of pitch recognition.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 4:39 PM MST up reply actions  

Honestly, I'm not really sure what you mean by this

Like I get what you’re saying in a vacuum, but not how it fits in to the general discussion…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:43 PM MST up reply actions  

It was responding to your point of Lopez hitting .280-.290 given his environment and known hitting profile.

I was just pointing out that him hitting ~.285 isn’t a great feat, because he takes so many swings.

As to what you said about him seeing more off-speed pitches, here are the numbers:

2008: 64.7% Fastballs seen
2009: 57.1% Fastballs seen
2010: 53.2% Fastballs seen

He’s steadily seen more sliders, curves and changeups since 2008 and that shouldn’t surprise anyone. That’s how you get Lopez out.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 4:47 PM MST up reply actions  

This quote
I was just pointing out that him hitting ~.285 isn’t a great feat, because he takes so many swings.

Doesn’t make sense to me. There are too many other hackers who post low averages for us to assume this.

What is telling also is that the % of pitches Lopez has seen in the zone has decreased every year, and last season, for the first time in his career, he saw more pitches out of the zone rather than in.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:53 PM MST up reply actions  

There are plenty of recent examples of guys like Lopez

With low walk rates, high swing rates and average or greater BAs.

Lopez: 3.7% BB, 31.7% O-Zone Swing, 68.1% Zone Swing, 50.8% Total Swing, 86.7% Total Contact, .266 Batting Average
Howie Kendrick: 3.8% BB, 34.1% O-Zone Swing, 65.2% Zone Swing, 49.5% Total Swing, 79.2% Total Contact, .295 Batting Average
Alexei Ramirez: 5.4% BB, 36.2% O-Zone Swing, 70.0% Zone Swing, 52.9% Total Swing, 83.1% Total Contact, .283 Batting Average
Benji Molina: 4.0% BB, 33.6% O-Zone Swing, 72.8% Zone Swing, 54.1% Total Swing, 86.4% Total Contact, .274 Batting Average
Delmon Young: 4.1% BB, 40.5% O-Zone Swing, 81.6% Zone Swing, 60.9% Total Swing, 76.8% Total Contact, .292 Batting Average
Yuniesky Betancourt: 3.4% BB, 32.0% O-Zone Swing, 68.3% Zone Swing, 51.0% Total Swing, 88.2% Total Contact, .272 Batting Average
A.J. Pierzynski: 4.0% BB, 35.8% O-Zone Swing, 80.2% Zone Swing, 59.0% Total Swing, 83.9% Total Contact, .284 Batting Average

That took way too long blah.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 5:23 PM MST up reply actions  

I appreciate the research

but this list and what you said are different.

There are a handful of guys who are successful despite low walk rates – Vlad and Ichiro are the most obvious.

Your comment read as though we can always expect a high average from Lopez because hits are bound to happen because he swings/puts the ball in play so much.

2 things come to mind though -

1. if this is what is going to happen to Lopez – he’ll post a good average no matter what because he swings so much, then he’s only going to get better at Coors given the thin air and his pull-hitter style.

2. Hitters with low walk rates who can’t post high averages are just removed from the MLB so it’s easier to come up with lists of those who succeed. But for every Kendrick or Young, there are probably 3 Joey Gathrights…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 5:35 PM MST up reply actions  

To your 2nd point

Of course there are numerous more players who don’t walk and can’t hit enough to make up for it. You can say the same for any kind of hitter or pitcher. The players that are in MLB now are there because they are better than others at the skills they succeed with. My point is that you can expect an above-average batting average from Lopez because of his approach. My list was pointing out a number of players with similar approaches who also have above-average batting averages. What they all have in common is that they swing a lot. Pitches in the zone, out of the zone.

As to your first point, despite all I’ve argued, I think he’ll hit alright at Coors. I don’t think there’s a chance that he’s a .900 OPS guy (or even .850, really), but his style of hitting is far more well-suited for Coors than Safeco. That being said, he’s more than likely still going to be a below-average hitter on the road.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 5:47 PM MST up reply actions  

I still don't see it that way

I don’t think we can expect an above average batting avg because of his approach, but rather his past performance… He’s able to make that approach work whereas others have the same approach and post average or below average batting avgs

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 6:03 PM MST up reply actions  

I must say

that Clint Barmes had a similar number of games and at-bats batting 2nd and 8th in a lineup. He was not a walk machine and we often said he would swing at everything. That being said some numbers to look at for Barmes:

Games:
2nd- 193
8th- 200

PA:
2nd- 861
8th- 727

OBP:
2nd- .310
8th- .307

BB:
2nd- 30
8th- 51

BABIP:
2nd- .303
8th- .287

All of these numbers are close except for the number of walks Barmes had. Given the number of plate appearances in each position in the lineup and the slightly higher OBP while batting second I would wager to guess he had a few more pitches to hit, even though pitchers knew he was a swing at the ball in the dirt player.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 13, 2011 4:32 PM MST up reply actions  

I didn't know where to put this in the grand scheme of things

and selected reply almost at random.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 13, 2011 4:34 PM MST up reply actions  

The increase in BABIP by 16 points is significant

and lends credence to what RG has been saying. If it’s accompanied by a similar decrease in walks however, it becomes moot.

I’m not sure what RG’s response would be, but I guess the main point of contrast between Barmes and Lopez is that there is some hope that Lopez is just a better hitter – also Lopez’s overall lower k-rate would provide him more opportunities to raise his BABIP so that even if the decrease in walks were similar, Lopez would demonstrate a greater increase in BABIP…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:40 PM MST up reply actions  

Awesome, and further to that...

the increase in walks in the 8 hole is very likely attributable solely to hitting in front of the pitcher.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 4:43 PM MST up reply actions  

Correlation is not causation, especially in a small sample size.

Ludwick putting up a .374 BABIP has nothing (ok, very little) to do with hitting in front of Pujols. It has everything to do with sample size.

Maybe Sanchez and Morrison were just better than people thought or just luckier than average.

Lopez doesn’t have OBP skills, plain and simple. Moving him around in the lineup, for the most part, will have little effect on his performance. Besides, I would prefer a 2-hole hitter with FEW balls in play, because it reduces GIDP problems.

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 7:52 PM MST up reply actions  

this

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 7:48 PM MST up reply actions  

That works only if...

 A. He swings at mostly strikes or B. He fouls off a huge number of close balls. I like his contact rate and contact percentage. I don’t like his advance rate and runners scored in the two hole or five hole. I don’t like his pull percentage and would use that against him if opposing. I see a lot of GIDP’s to short and a lot of low liners weakly hit to third.

 He’s not Vlad at the plate and I think you are expecting too much. He should be and offensive upgrade compared to Barmes last year. He’ll be more Ron Fairly than Joe Morgan. He’ll be respectably solid but not a world beater. I’m not sure he’ll overcome his defense.

"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana

by Oldfoagie on Jan 13, 2011 7:46 PM MST up reply actions  

Mobile rec

Nice article RG.

@charliedrysdale

by Charlie77 on Jan 13, 2011 2:36 PM MST via mobile reply actions  

Christian Friedrich

K here goes nothing my first post and it is a little off topic for today but i have yet to find a good day to put it in so this one will have to work. Does anyone on here think that possibly the Verducci effect could of happened somewhat to Friedrich as his innings jumped quite a bit between 2008 and 2009 then he a down 2010, in 2008 he threw 50 innings plus whatever he threw in college then 2009 jumped to 119 just wondering everyones elses take on that

by kjj0127 on Jan 13, 2011 3:55 PM MST reply actions  

Welcome to the Row!

Hang out and enjoy!

As for your post, I’m going to hazard a guess that he actually threw more innings in 2008 than in 2009. Wasn’t he a starter in college? He would likely have pitched more than 69 in that college year.

And even if not that many, it means his real IP in 2008 would have come close to his 2009 number.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 3:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Ya i tried to find college stats on him but had no luck

by kjj0127 on Jan 13, 2011 3:59 PM MST up reply actions  

Friedrich threw 81 innings for EKU in 2008.

So, his innings total actually went down from ’08 to ’09.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 4:02 PM MST reply actions  

Fair enough couldnt find the college stats like i said so i thought i would ask and now i have been informed thanks

by kjj0127 on Jan 13, 2011 4:08 PM MST up reply actions  

Not technically

Unless I’m reading this wrong, he threw 81 innings in college in 08 and then another 48 innings between tri-city and asheville

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:09 PM MST up reply actions  

sooo reallly about 130 innings in 2008

which is an increase of about 50 over 2007

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:10 PM MST up reply actions  

Right, but the original point being brought up was the possibility of a "Verducci" effect in 2010

Due to Freidrich possibly throwing a lot more innings in 2009 as opposed to 2008. He threw 10 fewer innings in 2009 than in 2008, so 2010 wasn’t a result of fatigue.

by DKCecil on Jan 13, 2011 4:12 PM MST up reply actions  

Yea

He went from 130 in 2008 to 120 in 2009.

I think his struggles in 2010 were just that.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 4:16 PM MST up reply actions  

Chris Malone tweeted that he is returning to our organization.

PROJECT LIBRA: Depth / Transactions
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 13, 2011 4:38 PM MST reply actions  

Dudes got arms lime sewer pipes..

I gotta get me a pair of those shoes.

@charliedrysdale

by Charlie77 on Jan 13, 2011 5:53 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Karl Malone on taxes.

People ask me what I do during the winter when there is no baseball. I tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 13, 2011 8:00 PM MST up reply actions  

Is that all the Nugs got for Melo?

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 5:55 PM MST up reply actions  

The Yankees have apparently agreed to terms with Rafael Soriano.

bwahahaha 1st round picks for relievers.

thought to be for about $35 million for 3 yrs…with a player opt out after the 1st/2nd years.

wow…that is all kinds of dumb.

People ask me what I do during the winter when there is no baseball. I tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 13, 2011 7:26 PM MST reply actions  

Do they get a pick if he opts out?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 7:40 PM MST up reply actions  

I don't think so. The player has to be offered arb and a type A/B to receive a compensatory pick.

People ask me what I do during the winter when there is no baseball. I tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 13, 2011 7:57 PM MST up reply actions  

The Jays got one for Burnett

So I believe so.

2011: A new year and a new chance at a championship.

by MattBerger on Jan 13, 2011 7:57 PM MST up reply actions  

Hmmm

guess it depends on if he opts out and then is offered arb…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 13, 2011 8:08 PM MST up reply actions  

He won't

No way anyone else is dumb enough to give him that kind of money.

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 9:33 PM MST up reply actions  

Yankees, you really stupid.

With #Yanks No. 31 pick, #Rays now will have 3 picks in 1st round of draft, nine before start of second.

People ask me what I do during the winter when there is no baseball. I tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 13, 2011 8:11 PM MST up reply actions  

The Rays will again be great...

…in 2014.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 13, 2011 10:29 PM MST up reply actions  

HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dumbest move of the offseason so far. I love it. What makes this even better though is that it comes only days after a report where Cashman talked about how much the Yankees valued their first round pick and how they didn’t want to give that up. That contract is a fabulous blunder on their part.

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 9:32 PM MST up reply actions  

mikeaxisa
  
Oh by the way, because of the luxury tax Soriano’s $35M is really $49M.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 14, 2011 2:13 PM MST up reply actions  

watching top 10 LF "right now" on MLBN

Top 3 according to the show are 1 – Braun, 2 – Hamilton, 3 – Cargo. Kevin Millar says it’s just right but Mitch Williams is apoplectic. He sees 1 – Cargo, 2 – Hamilton, 3 – Braun. Basically he’s saying you guys are out of your mind.

by kbrick on Jan 13, 2011 8:01 PM MST reply actions  

Those guys are out of their minds...

Ryan Braun is in no way better than Carlos Gonzalez or Josh Hamilton.

The Colorado Rockies aren't a team, they're an armada.

by free7694 on Jan 13, 2011 10:22 PM MST up reply actions  

I <3 CarGo and all

And I think CarGo is great defensively, I still would have a hard time choosing him over Braun. Not saying that I would definitely pick Braun (given that CarGo’s best season is worth 1.2 wins than Braun’s best), but he has been one of the best hitters in the game since his debut.

I guess that its about 51% Braun 49% CarGo for me. I know what I am going to get from Braun, but CarGo has more potential to be elite with the bat and the glove.

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 10:28 PM MST up reply actions  

Talk about crazy UZR driven value

Andrew Jones averaged 6.75 WAR in the 9 years between 1998 and 2006. That is flat out crazy.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 8:51 PM MST reply actions  

New Fangraphs stuff:

How Fans and UZR Disagree: the Rockies

Haven’t read it yet, but should be interesting.

Also, would anyone be interested in an update of my 2011 Rockies WAR projections? Given I made it pre-Lopez/Wiggington, and ZiPs has projections now, it may be worth another look if people are interested.

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 9:14 PM MST reply actions  

sounds like an idea for a fanpost

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 13, 2011 9:23 PM MST up reply actions  

Yea I made one like, a month ago (?)

But it used Bill James (“optimistic”) projections and was not park-adjusted. I would love to give it another shot with park adjusted stuff and more “reasonable” ZiPS projections. Also, I would like to add in the recent signees.

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 9:49 PM MST up reply actions  

I'll be putting this in tomorrow's Rockpile with a credit tip to you.

Thanks for the link.

PROJECT LIBRA: Depth / Transactions
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 13, 2011 9:41 PM MST up reply actions  

I think ATF may have caught it first

not sure though

thanks btw!

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 9:47 PM MST up reply actions  

I don't see it linked anywhere else here in the thread, so you'll still get the credit. :p

PROJECT LIBRA: Depth / Transactions
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 13, 2011 9:50 PM MST up reply actions  

ok, before I do opening my mouth again and saying something stupid.

What is UZR? I’ve seen it on here ALOT and still no idea what it is. My 2 cents worth here. I say bat Helton 5th and insert someone else batting 2nd. I’ve said before. Cargo would be pushing Todd across the plate in he is on base ahead of him. It would be 2 quick runs if that was the case.

by Roxman4ever on Jan 13, 2011 9:30 PM MST reply actions  

Ultimate Zone Rating

It is a counting stat (like HR for instance), but it measures the number of runs saved on defense compared to an average fielder at that position. It is taken by people judging the play versus a zone plot on the field like this. UZR is then used as a subcomponent for WAR, in that it is the defensive statistic used by Fangraphs.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 13, 2011 9:36 PM MST up reply actions  

UZR stands for "Ultimate Zone Rating"

It’s a defensive metric that tries (although many here would argue fails) to measure how many runs above or below average a player was worth. It’s also used at the defensive stat for fangraph’s version of WAR

78 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 13, 2011 9:38 PM MST up reply actions  

Helton doesn't have enough power anymore to bat 5th

1. Dex
2. Lopez v LHP/Smith v. RHP
3. CarGo
4. Tulo
5. Stew
6. Iannetta
7. Helton
8. Lopez v RHP/Spilly,Blackmon,Andruw Jones v LHP
Gotta bat Helton at the bottom of the lineup at this point

People ask me what I do during the winter when there is no baseball. I tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 13, 2011 9:52 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

I think this is okay, except I'd switch Lopez and Iannetta vs. RHP

The place you’d least want Lopez is 8th in an NL lineup and Iannetta over his career has done fairly well there. 27% of Iannetta’s career PA’s have gotten to three ball counts, only 10% of Lopez’s have. Again, putting Lopez in a situation where you are trying to force patience on him is destined for failure.

by Rox Girl on Jan 14, 2011 4:27 AM MST up reply actions  

For anyone still awake: exciting announcement coming tomorrow morning.

For those of you who know what it is, no spoilers!

PROJECT LIBRA: Depth / Transactions
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 13, 2011 9:59 PM MST reply actions  

can't wait

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 13, 2011 10:01 PM MST up reply actions  

Darn

I can’t spoil. Oh well, I can tell people that it looks really nice. Should be Awesome.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 10:06 PM MST up reply actions  

HMMM

does this mean ed the ump wasnt crazy after all

by kjj0127 on Jan 13, 2011 10:08 PM MST up reply actions  

No, it definitely does.

This is an announcement relating more to the blog than to the team.

PROJECT LIBRA: Depth / Transactions
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 13, 2011 10:08 PM MST up reply actions  

No

EdTheBump is always wrong.

Although I would love to wake up to a Cook, Wheeler, and Nicasio for Floyd trade.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 10:09 PM MST up reply actions  

Ed the Ump really does have legitimate connections to the Monforts

whether he’s right about the rumor or that it would happen remains to be seen

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 14, 2011 9:21 AM MST up reply actions  

We're unveiling

the Purple Row Mind Control Machine tomorrow!?!?

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 13, 2011 10:10 PM MST up reply actions  

about time

When does the time machine come out?

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 13, 2011 10:15 PM MST up reply actions  

It already did,

you just don’t know it yet.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 13, 2011 10:16 PM MST up reply actions  

It all comes together...

No wonder RG was spot on with the CarGo deal, she just used the PR time machine to find out.

Seems we should buy in to the whole .920 OPS Lopez thing now!

jk jk jk

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 10:18 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm RG.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 13, 2011 10:19 PM MST up reply actions  

I would just repeat October 1, 2007 over and over.

Best birthday present ever.

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 10:16 PM MST up reply actions  

I think we all would.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 13, 2011 10:18 PM MST up reply actions  

In all honesty though

I watched the full game twice on the 24hr train to Dallas for New Years.

And I still wonder – how the heck was Kouzmanoff hitting third?

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 10:21 PM MST up reply actions  

I made an excellent test subject, didn't I?

PROJECT LIBRA: Depth / Transactions
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 13, 2011 10:16 PM MST up reply actions  

I thought

it had been up and running for a ye… Hey, look over there.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 10:16 PM MST up reply actions  

You let the cat of the bag,

and maybe literally.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 13, 2011 10:17 PM MST up reply actions  

do we know if it's alive or dead yet?

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 13, 2011 10:18 PM MST up reply actions  

Both.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 13, 2011 10:19 PM MST up reply actions  

I'll have you know

That I have never put my cat in the bag.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 10:19 PM MST up reply actions  

Our opening day lineup?

Helton
Tulo
Stewart
Cargo
Iannetta
Smith
Lopez
Pitcher
Dextor

I love the online simulators.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 10:07 PM MST reply actions  

Especially ones clearly designed by Tony LaRussa

PROJECT LIBRA: Depth / Transactions
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 13, 2011 10:08 PM MST up reply actions  

lol

turrible

LETS GO RED WINGS!

2011 will be the year....better be....

Troy Tulowitzki: "When people think of the Rockies, I want them to think of a winning organization."

by TuLoRocks2008 on Jan 13, 2011 10:12 PM MST up reply actions  

I agree that it looks funny

But technically, we would score like 2 more runs over the course of the year.

Dang.

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 10:16 PM MST up reply actions  

Ok seems the thread is active enough to shoot an idea out there

New pitcher metric: opponent WAR.

Take the component batting stats against the pitcher, convert to wOBA with park adjustment, and calculate the RAR.

Make any sense?

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 10:20 PM MST reply actions  

Yes

And I asked Fisher about that a while ago. Would be an interesting stat to see.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 10:21 PM MST up reply actions  

Have you

worked this out yet to provide an example? I think it would be easier to make a judgment if I saw the numbers first.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 13, 2011 10:21 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm not quite skilled enough to generate opponent park-adjusted wOBA stuff

I guess the thought is that, while not DIPS, it would be a better measure of what “actually” happened than ERA.

But it would probably tell the same story

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 13, 2011 10:24 PM MST up reply actions  

I would think it would be easier just to leave it as a wOBA against

And it should be that difficult to do. You could always shoot the fangraphs guys an email and as them about it.

by mkorpal on Jan 13, 2011 10:27 PM MST up reply actions  

Make sure the wOBA is park adjusted, or it's no better than OPS against

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 14, 2011 9:22 AM MST up reply actions  

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