Saturday Rockpile: Jeff Francis Moves On To Kansas City
by Bryan Kilpatrick on Jan 15, 2011 9:36 AM MST
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Dave Cameron goes out on a limb and says that the Royals' signing of Jeff Francis that took place yesterday may go down as the best free agent signing of the offseason. One thing in particular caught my attention, which is that the Rockies have accounted for the lowest UZR total in the big leagues over the past three seasons, at -109.1. Brad Hawpe has been the biggest offender, but we all know how UZR makes Rockies players look bad. However, there may be something to this; Francis works outside and off the plate a ton, but since he doesn't have great stuff, hitters will tend to push the ball the other way. The majority of hitters in the league are right-handed, and Brad Hawpe played right field. You put two and two together.
Either way, there's no arguing - based on the xFIP vs. ERA, anyway - that Francis has been rather unlucky, especially last season. I for one am rooting for Jeff to succeed in Kansas City. After all, who's to say there won't be a spot for him here in the future?
Rockies second baseman Eric Young Jr. shares the famous quotes that inspire him | MLB.com: News
Thomas Harding writes about how Eric Young Jr. likes to share inspirational/influential quotes with his long list of Twitter followers. Hopefully they inspire him enough to reach his potential and not have to share playing time at Triple-A.
Giants announce 22 non-roster invitees to 2011 Spring Training | SFGiants.com: Official Info
Our bitter rivals have invited one of our former guys to Spring Training - Brad Eldred. Eldred posted a .250/.333/.417 line in 11 games with the Rockies last year, which was the first time he appeared in the big leagues since 2007. He spent the rest of his time in Colorado Springs, where he smacked 30 homers and put up an OPS of .893. Throughout his career, Eldred has been known as the prototypical "AAAA" player. I do not wish him luck with the Giants (at the MLB-level, at least).
Organizational report: Rockies pitching staff is hit-and-miss - USATODAY.com
Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today wrote up an organizational report on the Rockies which, ironically, is hit-and-miss just like its description of the Rox pitching staff.
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The USAToday article was definitely more hit than miss
I wish he didn’t say Arenado “handles his position well.”
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2011 9:48 AM MST reply actions
why do you wish that?
As it’s a true statement currently. The only question is whether it will continue to be true.
from everything I've read, he's holding on defensively, but not doing well
I just don’t want to deal with people calling for Arenado to replace Stewart at third this September, when indications are he likely won’t stick at third. Unless you have other sources I haven’t seen…
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2011 12:11 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
So which sources said he wasn't doing well?
It’s a case similar to Francis’ velocity, or more specific to his position Pablo Sandoval, where if you dig, people don’t really know what they’re talking about when they give him bad defensive marks. It’s either confirmation bias “he’s too big, therefore he must be bad” or they haven’t really seen him play that much. The people who are most objective say they haven’t seen anything that would warrant moving him off the position yet, but worry that he’ll have to be later. We don’t have TZR numbers and I don’t trust my ability to reverse engineer them, but his range numbers are fairly solid historically for Asheville for the balls in play. Stewart was better, but Ian’s going to be getting expensive relative to his production in a year or two if he doesn’t make offensive progress.
Sounds like a glove made of tin like mine was...
Will he be any better at first? Or do we develope him as a DH and trade him to an AL club?
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
I'm not sure what I wrote that would give you that impression.
Soft hands are his biggest defensive attribute. People are worried that his mobility will deteriorate rapidly as he gets older with his body type, but right now, it’s fine.
I'm relieved about the hands...
So get him out of the gym and into the Dojo for agility drills and a whole body work out; and (don’t laugh I’m serious) sign him up for ballet to improve his foot work. Those are oldschool solutions fringe players without a lot of baseball rescources to be used. Working with free weights was considered counter productive once upon a time because the wrong muscles were usually over devloped to look good. Working with the medicine ball and russian kettle balls were prefered to develope elbow and shoulder strength. Does anybody play pepper anymore?
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
btw, for the rest of his defense, arm strength is supposedly decent, not great, but accuracy is the biggest issue
15 errors in 235 chances isn’t terrible, though.
If he does go to first, decent is probably good enough
We won’t always have a former SEC qb at first base, after all….
And if his future is at first, I love hearing that soft hands are his best attribute defensively. The point to work on may be his range. Not an absolute must at 1B, but it’s sure nice to have…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
Bazinga!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 15, 2011 3:10 PM MST up reply actions
my sources were Mike Newman, Muzia, Jim Callis and predraft reports
I think one of Etkin’s reports suggested something as well, but I can’t recall. Can’t say I’ve paid attention to minor league fielding numbers for anyone.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2011 1:00 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Newman:
Defense: In game one of the series, Arenado took short, choppy steps to to get to balls and made an error on a routine grounder a step to his left. My initial reaction was to write him off as a third baseman, but he proceeded to play flawless defense showing the ability to react to hard hit balls, charge slow rollers, with an average, accurate throwing arm. Arenado has quite a bit of work to do to project as an average third baseman, but he has time, and makeup on his side.
Muzia’s report:
…third baseman Nolan Arenado. Arenado was also drafted in 2009 (second round) directly out of a California high school and is the proud owner of my favorite scouting report ever. “Duck-footed and lumbers” was the word on Arenado heading into the draft and, boy, is it ever accurate. The 19-year old infielder has limited range, has a below average arm and makes even the most routine play at third base appear difficult. As I wrote in my notebook after watching Arenado field a bunt, “moves like he needs a walker”. It remains to be seen if the club decides to move him to another position or allows him more time to attempt to figure out the hot corner. Current Rockies third baseman and former Asheville Tourist Ian Stewart also carried a reputation as a defensive butcher throughout the minor leagues, but has flashed some spectacular leather at times. Arenado may deserve the same chance.
which comes pretty close to what Bill Ballew wrote for Baseball America, which I’m guessing Callis got his information from. Now we’re seeing conflicting reports with the arm, but the universal complaint is the way he moves, which everybody thinks limits his range, even though it’s not showing up in the numbers. This is where I’ve really come around on Arenado, as until it does, I’m calling this confirmation bias. Ron Cey had a similar duck walk, enough to give him the nickname “penguin” but he managed to be a six time MLB All Star and appeared five times on the MVP ballot. Arenado’s obviously bigger than Cey in both height and girth, so it’s probably an unfair comparison, but until there’s more evidence of this, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.
this is good to reread, as I didn't bother to look them up mobile
I suppose predraft reports colored my view due to expectation, but it seems like those reports still paint him as a poor 3b with time to develop. How likely do you think it is he can stick there? I suppose we did have Atkins’ defense at third…
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2011 1:36 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I think it's very possible that Arenado could be a slight negative (-5 to 0 runs) to average third baseman.
Enough so that it’s got me tweaking around alternative scenarios for when he’s ready to contribute full time (my current projection for that is 2013). Stewart’s entering the first of his four arbitration seasons, meaning if the Rockies were to trade him for the most return, it would have to happen some time before the 2014 season, and Helton’s contract also expires at the end of that 2013 season giving us two corner openings at about the same time. Arenado could conceivably fill either.
"handles his position well" is one of those auto, Mel Kiper Jr descriptions
(I have read the rest of his thread) It’s just a silly way to describe someone’s defense. Lots of people handle their position well, but aren’t necessarily good defenders.
The end of the previously cited Newman report is what is troubling:
Arenado has quite a bit of work to do to project as an average third baseman, but he has time, and makeup on his side.
He’s about the same size as Brett Wallace, who was never going to be a plus defender, I think it makes sense to keep an offensively solid prospect in a premium position for as long as possible. As long as they’re young and it doesn’t turn into an obvious conclusion to move them to LF or 1B, it still allows them to accrue more value than labeling them defensively challenged.
If Arenado, like Atkins from 2006-09, can be no worse than a -5 (as RG speculated), the team could live with him a third. However, that’s no reason to be concerned about acquiring more talented players (trade or draft).
Do you actually think....
Jeff reads this? I doubt he does, but wish him luck nonetheless. He will either have a very good first half and get traded by the deadline (maybe back to the Rockies), or he will struggle or be hurt.
Well, if he does read this blog and Rockie4Ever and Tulorocks were the only one who wished him well...
don’t you think Jeff would be :( ?
I'm Jeff, and I read this.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
I was thinking about you when reading these comments..
I kept thinking, “where’s jabberwocky going”?
@charliedrysdale
by Charlie77 on Jan 15, 2011 9:12 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
thanks for the years Jeff
good luck in KC…hope you win 20 games
LETS GO RED WINGS!
2011 will be the year....better be....
Troy Tulowitzki: "When people think of the Rockies, I want them to think of a winning organization."
20 out of the....
60 total games KC wins lol
LETS GO RED WINGS!
2011 will be the year....better be....
Troy Tulowitzki: "When people think of the Rockies, I want them to think of a winning organization."
by TuLoRocks2008 on Jan 15, 2011 10:18 AM MST up reply actions
Another Gen R member moves on
Happy trails Jeff, we’ll never forget 07! Go own that AL Central :D
Levi Knutson = X-FACTOR
Hollidayrain Music
All gone now
He was the last of the Gen R players to move on even though technically I suppose Barmes was traded away after the Rockies declined Francis’ option and thus should be considered the last one.
I don't know if there was ever a clear definition of Gen-R
Some considered it just the class of players that made their Rockies debuts after Holliday but before Tulo, which is where I think you’re coming from, but the Rockies marketing team themselves seemed to consider all the Rockies under 27 on the 2005 squad part of the group, which would include Aaron Cook. Cook was after all on the same minor league teams as Atkins, Holliday, Barmes, etc…
Too bad he got replaced by Matzek in the rotation
oh wait…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Yeah, I guess Aaron Cook technically doesn't count since he was a solid contributor in 2004.
Pretty crazy….the 6th anniversary of the Barmes Walk Off is coming up pretty soon. :O
Levi Knutson = X-FACTOR
Hollidayrain Music
by Hollidayrain on Jan 15, 2011 8:00 PM MST up reply actions
Another reason Trever Hoffman didn't like his memories at Coors very much
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK
Hopefully, the team has evolved into "Gen: Win Multiple World Series'"
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I've started looking at the DRS statistic
on the fangraphs page when looking at our players defense. DRS is what’s behind the fielding bible awards, and though it seems mostly correlated with UZR, it does seem a little more reasonable…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I know we're talking about Arenado above, but that's surprisingly strong praise for Nicasio from Gustafson.
“Juan Nicasio might be the next Ubaldo Jimenez,” Gustafson says, citing Nicasio’s upper-90s fastball and effective curve. “This kid’s special. He’s maturing in terms of his ability to focus — setting up hitters and the art of pitching — but has really electric stuff.”
You can look back to Andrew Martin’s interview here for evidence, but Gustafson’s usually far more reserved in praising our prospects than this.
I read that.
Maybe he’s really being underrated by us here? He’s ranked 13 on the PuRP board.
I'm GoRockies!! everybody :P
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 15, 2011 1:46 PM MST up reply actions
I liked him more than most when we did the voting, but the reasoning behind his lower placement is his age (24) relative to level (High A).
Nicasio probably needs to move quickly this year (to AAA by the end of 2011) if he wants to be a contributor to the Rockies.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
He does have 2 option seasons left.
According to that fantastic RockiesRoster.com site, at least. So his timetable is such that he’d need to be a full time MLB player by the start of the 2013 season.
We’ve seen a handful of starters in the last few years debut fairly late and still be solid contributors like Randy Wells, Brian Duensing, Doug Fister and even Jeff Niemann. Nicasio seems to share some similar traits.
Nicasio does have two guaranteed options left, and there's a good possibility he'd have access to an extra option year as well.
RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates
by Greg Stanwood on Jan 15, 2011 3:50 PM MST up reply actions
on the topic of big prospects
what exactly were Friedrich’s ailments this past season? I know he had a few DL stints, and I think one of them was elbow soreness?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Elbow stiffnes plagued him, especially at the beginning of the season. His MRI's were clean,
but as I’ve said frequently with other pitchers, a clean MRI isn’t always a sign that you’re out of the woods. Friedrich will be interesting to watch this season, he could be getting underrated. I think fans want the superstar, the guy that comes up in two years and contributes right away, and a lot of times there winds up being little tolerance for the next tier down from that. I also think our understandings of what makes a good pitching prospect as fans are pretty rudimentary.
It does seem like his stock has fallen considerably
due to the injuries. I’m assuming he was clean in college. Hopefully the injuries don’t come back because those are what I attribute his poor 2010 numbers to – not a lack of skill/adjustment…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I love that your avatar remains btw
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2011 2:36 PM MST up reply actions
lol
Every once and again I’m tempted to change it, but them I’m like naaaaahh, 1. It’s just an avatar, 2. It’s perfect.
Also, it’s nice to know that anytime I say something intelligent (happens rarely), it’s totally negated by the avatar – or as Blakebomber put it a while back “I just can’t seem to take anything you say seriously with your [new] avatar”
The sad part about it, is that since it’s so good, it also represents Andrew Martin’s peak :-(
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
i'm a bit shocked too
Despite good stuff and good numbers, he has gone through the system at a snails pace, spending a full year at every single level so far. I don’t quite understand why it’s taken him so long to get this far.
Jimenez did too... he just got rushed to high A a little faster and then stalled
2002 Casper
2003 Asheville/Visalia
2004 Visalia
2005 Modesto/Tulsa
2006 Tulsa/C Springs
2007 C. Springs/ Denver
Compare that to Nicasio:
2007: Casper
2008: Tri-City
2009: Asheville
2010: Modesto
And it’s more station to station, but not that different, especially if he winds up at the Springs by the end of the year.
mid-season call-ups that were largely the decision of the guy who's comparing Nicasio to Jimenez now..,
Jimenez was pushed out of a necessity in the MLB rotation that’s not necessarily there right now, in the last two call-ups, he struggled a bit at the higher level (the first one to Visalia was just for one start). I don’t think that we should hold the lack of mid-season promotions against Nicasio. And again, I think the ARL thing is a place that fans can blind themselves to solid pitching prospects (also sometimes position prospects like Blackmon and Pacheco, for instance). Nicasio’s looking much better than Armando Gallaraga did, for an example of another guy that took his time.
I can't say if this has happened for sure...
but as our minor league depth gets better and better due to more sophisticated player evaluation and strong drafts, could we expect players who aren’t true top prospects to advance more slowly due to lack of room?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I think you see it happening at certain positions already.
Matt Miller is probably an MLB worthy player, but there wasn’t a slot for him. Our infield situation is also obviously pretty crowded. The result will hopefully be that it’s a higher quality cream that rises to the top.
I remain guardedly optimistic re: Nicasio
But calling him the “next Ubaldo” is pretty bullish.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2011 4:04 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
bullish enough to make me take a closer look,
and having done so, I’m certain that personally I had gotten too pessimistic about him. For every Gallaraga or Wandy Rodriguez that can make a late debut you have two or three Charlie Mortons that bust, but you also have a lot of 400 game relievers and there is solid precedence of late maturing upper middle rotation pitchers. I had been putting Nicasio’s ceiling too low.
strangely, I had thought you had been Nicasio's biggest defender here before now
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2011 5:05 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Probably I had been one of them
I did rate him 13th in the last PuRPs poll, but the ARL arguments and a fairly high extra base hit rate had been converting me to the more pessimistic side and I was downplaying his ceiling. Plus, I didn’t realize that he’s throwing that hard. Upper 90’s is huge.
Here's a video interview with Jordan Pacheco
I didn’t see this posted anywhere yesterday, my apologies if it was.
RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates
crap he looks like somebody I know from a movie
Can’t be sure though
I'm GoRockies!! everybody :P
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 15, 2011 3:05 PM MST up reply actions
Woody Harrelson :P
I'm GoRockies!! everybody :P
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 15, 2011 3:07 PM MST up reply actions
A bit like Elijah Wood
Optimism Warrior
2011 Colorado Zombies-DeadWalking to the NL West crown
Todd and Troy: Because they ARE Rockies.
QPU #4, YHEG #4, Proud Member PR Gynocracy
Yo, this interview gives me an idea
seeing as to how so many teams out there have catchers that are really terrible offensively, is it possible to start taking position players with strong arms and plus bats who for whatever reason are unlikely to contribute at the major league level and convert them to catcher?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I actually had the silly thought last season that Pacheco's switch was the result of something like that.
If Jesus Montero can be a top catching prospect, anybody can be a top catching prospect. Hey, I know, let’s switch that Pacheco guy, his trade value will go through the roof.
Thats probably an even better idea,
build an army of average hitting catchers and trade them off – turn them into currency!!111
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
uh oh. Looks like Albert may get to test FA.
#Cardinals gm Mozeliak says team has been notified by Pujols agent that spring training is the deadline for a new deal.#stlcards
I think I broke my brain with the though of him in the Rockies lineup.
People ask me what I do during the winter when there is no baseball. I tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 15, 2011 6:26 PM MST reply actions
**thought
People ask me what I do during the winter when there is no baseball. I tell you what I do, I stare out the window and wait for spring.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 15, 2011 6:27 PM MST up reply actions
What's another
trillion dollars to the payroll?
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
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See how that poor man just lost his arm?
This is why you always lock your star players into contract extensions early.
by Rox Girl on Jan 15, 2011 6:35 PM MST up reply actions 5 recs
Rec'd.
Make this green guys.
I'm GoRockies!! everybody :P
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 15, 2011 6:37 PM MST up reply actions
hahaha
Levi Knutson = X-FACTOR
Hollidayrain Music
by Hollidayrain on Jan 15, 2011 8:01 PM MST up reply actions
Sounds good in theory...
but I can’t think of any teams doing this in reality….
wait, what?
Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.
I used to be normal until I met these losers I now call my friends.
"Cheap tacos are rightous!"-My Daughter
And there's no way that's going to happen.
Pujols will probably command between $25-30 million dollars. I’m having a tough time figuring out where he could go however. (Not NYY, Not BOS..) Probably an LA team.
I'm GoRockies!! everybody :P
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 15, 2011 6:38 PM MST up reply actions
I'm of course excluding STL
Who is obviously the strong favorite.
I'm GoRockies!! everybody :P
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 15, 2011 6:57 PM MST up reply actions
Don't forget Texas and who ever the 'stros new owner is
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
Highly doubt the Rangers will have the $.
Astros.. They’re in rebuilding mode (well, trying to be… Not a very good system)
I'm GoRockies!! everybody :P
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 15, 2011 7:10 PM MST up reply actions
There is absolutely zero percent chance either McCourt signs him to $30m a year
However, the ownership situation should be settled before 2011 FA starts, so yaneverknow.
Is it ApRil yet?
Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports
sure they would. they would structure it like
2012: $5mil
2013: $7mil
2014: $10mil
2015: $15mil
2016: $20mil
2017: $30mil
2018: $55mil
2019: $86mil
$40mil signing bonus, deferred into eight million installments from 2036-40.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2011 9:22 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
What? The Marlins aren't going to sign him.
@charliedrysdale
by Charlie77 on Jan 15, 2011 9:18 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
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