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Wednesday Rockpile: Examining Colorado's Arbitration WAR Surplus

This week the Rockies have been busy locking in 2011 salaries with the remainder of their six arbitration eligible players, inking Matt Lindstrom (for two years, $6.6 million guaranteedand Felipe Paulino (one year, $790,000) to deals that avoided the arbitration process. Those of you who remember my MLB Transaction Series in Purple Row Academy know that I'm not a huge fan of the MLB salary arbitration process. Here's something I wrote last year detailing the arbitration process and a few problems that I have with it. Fortunately for the Rockies this offseason, the cost of their arbitration-eligible talent won't be as steep as I had projected, though all the players will receive a healthy raise from their 2010 salaries.

In addition to Lindstrom and Paulino (who will have three more years of arbitration eligibility), Colorado has signed Matt Belisle ($2.35 million) and Jose Lopez ($3.6 million) to deals that bought out their last year of arbitration. In fact, only Jason Hammel and Ian Stewart have even made it as far as exchanging figures with the Rockies. Hammel asked for $3.7 million as a 2nd year AE player (he was a Super Two last year), with Colorado countering with $3.1 million (midpoint of $3.4 million). Stewart is asking for $2.6 million against Colorado's $2.15 million offer as a Super Two player (midpoint of $2.375 million).

What does this mean? Let me provide a little context. It is a generally accepted maxim within baseball that arbitration-eligible players are paid at a % of their free market value depending on which year of arbitration they are entering. Normally, AE players receive arbitration awards of 40% their first year, 60% the second, and 80% the third. For Super Two players who get four years of arbitration eligibility, the breakdown is often 20/40/60/80. Furthermore, using WAR as a function of player value on the open market leads to the assumption that each win a free agent player provides is worth $5 million. 

Off-topic

Star-divide

By that formula, here is what the Rockies believe that each player is worth on the free agent market this year (or at least the production they're paying these players for adjusted for a free market), assuming the midpoint is the contract reached for Hammel and Stewart, as well as how much WAR they are actually paying for:

Player 2011 Salary Unadj. WAR Market Salary Expected WAR WAR Surplus
Matt Belisle $2,350,000 0.47 $2,937,500 0.59 0.12
Jason Hammel $3,400,000 0.68 $8,500,000 1.70 1.02
Matt Lindstrom $2,800,000 0.56 $4,666,667 0.93 0.37
Jose Lopez $3,600,000 0.72 $4,500,000 0.90 0.18
Felipe Paulino $790,000 0.16 $3,950,000 0.79 0.63
Ian Stewart $2,375,000 0.48 $11,835,000 2.37 1.89
Total $8,196,000 3.06 $36,389,167 7.28 4.21

As you can see from the chart above, the Rockies are paying these six players for only 3.06 wins above replacement yet by the salaries they've handed out, Colorado is expecting those six players to produce 7.28 WAR in 2011 -- a surplus of 4.21 WAR, or a little over $21 million worth of value. And that's only if you take Colorado's purported valuation of these players at face value.

You might notice that most of Colorado's arbitration WAR surplus is derived from Hammel and Stewart. Well, when I projected the arbitration awards of Belisle, Hammel, and Stewart at the beginning of the offseason (the other three weren't with the team at the time), I explained my expectations of each player. I projected Hammel as a 3 win player in 2011, roughly splitting the difference between his fWAR (3.8, 3.7) and rWAR (1.8, 1.7) totals the past two years. As you can see above, Colorado is paying Hammel to be a 1.7 win pitcher in 2011. If you assume that the 3 win projection of Hammel is accurate (and that's my expectation for him in 2011), Colorado's surplus value from arbitration shoots up to about 5.5 WAR.

Stewart's case is a little more murky, as the Rockies' third baseman was a league average (two win) player in 2010 on a rate basis. Colorado is paying him to replicate that success in 2011 with a 2.37 WAR campaign, a projection that I believe he'll meet or exceed. If Rox Girl and the people making projections at Fangraphs are to be believed, Lopez will have a league average year for Colorado in 2011, adding another win to Colorado's surplus value.

The other three pitchers are a little more tricky to project, as all will likely be in the bullpen in 2011. Relief pitchers fluctuate in value so much that I'm comfortable with using the Rockies' expected WAR totals for those guys. Paulino could make a few starts this year, providing more utility to the club than he would otherwise, or he could not even break Spring Training with the club.

In all, by my count the Rockies added about 6.5 WAR of surplus value over the production that they are paying these arbitration players for. Relatively speaking (the arbitration system still sucks), Colorado made out like bandits.

What does this mean?

Well, for one thing it means that Colorado's Opening Day Payroll will be lower than what I had been projecting lately, which was as much as $88 million. Instead, Colorado will be paying about $2 million less for Hammel than I had projected, $1 million less for Paulino, and $850,000 less for Belisle. This is somewhat balanced out by a higher than expected payment to Lindstrom ($650,000) and Stewart ($125,000), but the point is that the Rockies' payroll will be around $3 million less than I had projected simply because they were able to get their arbitration eligible players under contract for cheaper than the market value.

With that new information taken into account, it looks like Colorado will start 2011 with a payroll just south of $85 million -- which is shockingly in line with my thoughts 75 days ago. That is, unless Jason Giambi and his $1 million minor league deal makes the club (and it's looking probable at the moment, which would bump either EY2 or Herrera off my roster), once again sacrificing bench defensive flexibility for offensive aptitude. In that case, the 2011 ODP will be closer to $85.5 million.

Barmes Trade Wrap

As you may have seen, Clint Barmes signed a $3.925 million contract buying out his last year of arbitration with Houston. So the Rockies in essence got Paulino and $3.135 million in salary relief for Barmes. However, when you consider that Paulino is replacing a pitcher like Matt Daley or Esmil Rogers who would be making around the MLB minimum of $420,000 in 2011, the salary relief is more like $3.555 million. Therefore, it makes sense that the Rockies spent almost exactly that much ($3.6 million) in acquiring Jose Lopez.

The final tally from where I'm standing: Colorado exchanged Barmes, Chaz Roe, the MLB use of Daley/Rogers, and $45,000 for Lopez and Paulino. I'd call that a pretty decent swap. 

Finally, make sure and stay tuned for the release of Baseball America's top 10 Rockies prospect list later today.

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This WAR thing is really confusing

So some value can be based on WAR? If 1 win in WAR is worth 5 million bucks, then does that mean that Pujols should be paid 30-45 million per year? We all know that he can put up a 6-9 WAR. I would place him comfortably in that area. But, is he worth that 45 million per? He is one hell of a baseball player all around but to me. I wouldn’t pay him that kind of money. I would rather split that up and hopefully? get 2 or 3 players that could equal that and build a core around them.
One other question. How is Stewart a Super 2 and why does he get 4 years of arbitration?

by Roxman4ever on Jan 19, 2011 6:59 AM MST reply actions  

One of the reasons why the value seems so outrageous is because of the way MLB's underpaying players in their first few seasons.

So all of that excess WAR dollar value that Jeff talks about in this Rockpile for the Rockies as well as all the other clubs ends up getting put into free agency contracts, making them much bigger than they would be in a truly open and fair market. So it’s a system pretty much where the old feed off the young, and truth be told, the contracts probably should be higher if player payrolls were commiserate with the percentage of revenue spent in other leagues. In the NHL, 53% of revenue gets spent on player salaries, it’s 43% in the MLB.

Also, you have to consider aging as well, so while Pujols has been worth that much, his next contract will price in a predicted decline, so that’s where it’s more likely to land in the $25 to $30 million per season range, and yes, he probably will be worth it.

As for Stewart, that’s one of the stupid rules of the CBA that’s likely to be done away with when they negotiate their next contract next winter. It was put in place to give star players an early jump on arbitration, so they could earn more sooner, but it’s actually had the opposite effect of teams holding back their stars in the minor leagues (Strasburg and Posey from last year for instance) just so that they can control them for cheap longer.

by Rox Girl on Jan 19, 2011 7:33 AM MST up reply actions  

Arbitration salaries

The 40/60/80 assumption is violently wrong. I have no idea where it came from, but I’ve never seen anyone substantiate it, and it’s ridiculous.

I haven’t been tracking the arb salaries this year, but I did track them a couple winters ago, and it comes out to something like 20/34/48. Which makes a lot more sense, intuitively. There’s no way, logically, that the increase in salary from year 3 of arbitration to free agency should be no higher than the increase from year 2 of arbitration to year 3.

by Heltonfan on Jan 19, 2011 7:32 AM MST reply actions  

Going by your discount figures, the Rockies are expecting 10.69 WAR from these players.

Of that, 3.4 WAR would be from Hammel, 1.65 from Lindstrom, and 1.5 from Lopez.

The effect would be that the Rockies would pay comparitively more in a free market for these players’ services (as they are paying them to produce more WAR) but their WAR surplus value from arbitration would increase.

If you could give me a little more background on your figures I could examine them further. I’m pretty good with using the 40/60/80 right now though.

The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jan 19, 2011 8:08 AM MST up reply actions  

Well one thing can be said for sure...

You didn’t go the lazy route talk about one awesome post that thing should be it’s own article. Always enjoy reading your stuff HF.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 9:09 AM MST up reply actions  

agreed. This discussion is fascinating to me.

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
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by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 9:18 AM MST up reply actions  

And it goes green

72 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 19, 2011 9:54 AM MST up reply actions  

And it should...

I just wish there was a way to save particular comments. anyway you could copy/paste that to a fanpost so it’s easier to find for future reference.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 9:59 AM MST up reply actions  

I'm in the process of collecting this year's arb data

Once I finish that, I’ll adjust the formula accordingly and put up a FanPost for it. Spoiler alert: thus far, it looks like my formula above is, if anything, overshooting the arbitration awards…

by Heltonfan on Jan 19, 2011 10:05 AM MST up reply actions  

you need to submit this to BtB for their digestion.

This is a fantastic post.

Well, maybe tone down the vernacular a bit, I don’t think Tango’s intention was to mislead the baseball world.

Still, great post.

by Andrew Martin on Jan 19, 2011 11:00 AM MST up reply actions  

I certainly don't mean to blame Tango

But I suspect he’d be the first to tell you that the 40/60/80 thing is just an off-the-cuff estimate, not the result of any rigorous analysis. It’s not his fault that so many take his words as gospel…

by Heltonfan on Jan 19, 2011 11:11 AM MST up reply actions  

This is why Fowler/Stewart/Iannetta/Smith struggle

their confidence is hurt. We say hey dont worry, we’ll pay you at 60% of your value and then really pay them at 41%, so they just think they aren’t that good!

But for real, this is good stuff

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 11:01 AM MST up reply actions  

If anyone

wants questions asked in BA’s chat on the Rockies today but doesn’t have an account there, post them here. We’ll make sure they are submitted.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

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by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 7:56 AM MST reply actions  

I am still getting use to all these sabermetrics.

I need to spend like a whole day just studying them to get ready for the 2011 season.

When will the NCAA admit that it is a business with the sole purpose for making money off of student athletes?
Mark 16:15-18

by waterboy31321 on Jan 19, 2011 8:00 AM MST reply actions  

early Counting Rocks and early Purple Row Academy articles are your best resource

Or just ask Jeff, Andrew or myself.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 8:22 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

reading is also for sabrmetricians

video or nothing

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 11:02 AM MST up reply actions  

link

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on Jan 19, 2011 11:09 AM MST up reply actions  

oh you're dead meat

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 11:09 AM MST up reply actions  

you too chuckles

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 11:12 AM MST up reply actions  

why have I not

seen that before?

Hebrew National Hot Dogs - The Official Hot Dog of the Colorado Rockies.

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by hotdoglady on Jan 19, 2011 3:06 PM MST up reply actions  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuWoLBhnJ1g

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 11:09 AM MST up reply actions  

War HUH whoa, whoa, whoa

What is it good for? Absolutely nuthin’

Sing it again. J/K sabr heads, calm down

Getting ready for the fantasy season, I want to be in a counting league with head to head games, any chance of making a PR version of that, Leadership?

The Big Purple Machine will make a believer outta you!

by El Paso Jeff on Jan 19, 2011 8:39 AM MST reply actions  

SB Nation Baseball

may have that deal with CBSSports.com Fantasy Baseball Commissioner League again.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 8:51 AM MST up reply actions  

Can't wait

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 10:16 AM MST up reply actions  

Well,

I promise to actually compete in the 2011 one.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
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by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 10:20 AM MST up reply actions  

challenge accepted!

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 11:10 AM MST up reply actions  

The winner

gets kicked out for 2011.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 4:23 PM MST up reply actions  

Gracious winner.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 7:05 PM MST up reply actions  

A tiara?

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 7:33 PM MST up reply actions  

I'll be running two Yahoo leagues again this year -- one Roto and one I'm not sure of yet.

The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jan 19, 2011 6:35 PM MST up reply actions  

Make it only count

complete games, holds, and balks for pitchers. For offense? Triples and caught stealings. You’re welcome

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 20, 2011 8:40 AM MST up reply actions  

Fowler would be drafted first

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 20, 2011 12:20 PM MST up reply actions  

So assuming all teams use roughly the same measurements

Every team would come out of arbitration with a WAR surplus. With the amount of that surplus a basic function of the player’s WAR value.

.8(Supertwo expected WAR total) .6(1st year AE expected WAR total).4(2nd year AE expected WAR total)+.2(3rd year AE expected WAR total)

So how much surplus a team has at the beginning of the year really has very little to do with the Front offices ingenuity in negotiations and everything to do with the quality/quantity of AE players a team has, which says more about the Front offices handling of players development/scouting.

 So wouldn’t the real value would be looking in hindsight at last year and seeing whether or not a particular team prediction of WAR from arbitration players matches up with what really happened?

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 8:54 AM MST reply actions  

and somehow my + signs disappeared in posting that between the totals.

.8(Supertwo expected WAR total) + .6(1st year AE expected WAR total) + .4(2nd year AE expected WAR total) + .2(3rd year AE expected WAR total)

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 8:54 AM MST up reply actions  

I think my problem with WAR is that the $5m/WAR figure assumes all available players must come from free agency

But they don’t. Hundreds of players are on minimum or arb salaries, and can be signed/traded for to bolster teams.

by biondino on Jan 19, 2011 9:31 AM MST up reply actions  

I mean, I am pretty sure the problem is with my understanding

But it’s pretty obvious that Cargo isn’t worth paying £30m a year, and yet WAR says he would be if her were a free agent. Except if he were, then no-one would pay him that. You see the problem I’m having?

by biondino on Jan 19, 2011 9:32 AM MST up reply actions  

So The top end isn't getting paid the right amount...

And neither is the bottom, so it’s more of a curve. In the middle it’s 5 million/win but the Pujols of the world are getting gypped and so are the cheap young players. however a Jayson Werth probably comes in at about 5 million/win. So you actually might save money per win signing the best players in the game over the middle tier. Another reason why the Tulo/Cargo deals could be awesome deals.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 9:57 AM MST up reply actions  

Well, yes. If I only had the time, I would do something like that. There's value in hindsight, but I was looking toward the future with this post.

My point was to demonstrate that even though the arbitration process has its flaws, the Rockies are getting quite a bit of surplus value out of their arb-eligible players.

The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Jan 19, 2011 6:38 PM MST up reply actions  

if you drink beer and watch sports (who here doesn't?), you HAVE to read this

The death of the Beer Line: http://www.thepostgame.com/features/201101/death-beer-line

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 9:12 AM MST via mobile reply actions  

seems more mechanical than chemical

Any excuse to talk about beer though, right?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 9:21 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Let's hope Coors Field starts installing these soon!

Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some more groundballs. Its more democratic. - Crash Davis

by DAWNMARIE01 on Jan 19, 2011 9:24 AM MST up reply actions  

Best news ever
Best of all, a baseball fan can leave his seat at the end of a half inning, grab two properly poured beers and return without missing a single pitch.

by arpagamos on Jan 19, 2011 10:06 AM MST up reply actions  

I think the prices will still prevent that from happening

might be a short-term novelty effect tho

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 12:30 PM MST up reply actions  

that is addressed in the article by the inventor

He believes it will most affect the casual drinkers who are easily turned off by longlines, while those that are predisposed to heavier drinking at games would tend to have waited in those lines to begin with. For the most part, I agree with him. Most of the effect will probably go to casual drinkers, but there is bound to be some increase from The heavier drinking crowd, just not as much as it might initially seem

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 4:45 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Baseball America Top 10 List is up.

That 2014 projected lineup is drool-worthy

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 9:20 AM MST reply actions  

no kidding

The rotation is so good we won’t even have a closer

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 9:23 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Flooding

chat with questions.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 9:24 AM MST up reply actions  

VERY interesting quote from O'Dowd

Seems we can thank Greg Reynolds for flopping for drafting Tyler Matzek.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 9:27 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Reynolds + Weathers, probably

but yeah, point still stands.

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 9:28 AM MST up reply actions  

right

Though Reynolds has to be the bigger part of that by quite a bit

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 9:36 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Those two paragraphs made me cry a little

Longo at 2B and Heyward in LF. Damn.

But that happens to every team, like the Blue Jays passing on Tulo in 05.

by purplesocks on Jan 19, 2011 9:39 AM MST up reply actions  

Thats probably a bad example because Romero is pretty decent

I just remember reading an article with Toronto fans bitching about passing on Tulo

by purplesocks on Jan 19, 2011 9:42 AM MST up reply actions  

Romero isn't bad.

He’s not the worst player drafted ahead of Tulo. I remember heading into draft day in ‘05, the Mariners were widely assumed to be ready to draft Tulo at #3, but changed their minds at the last minute and took Jeff Clement. Bangup job on that one. Tulo’s also been far better than Alex Gordon, but then I could see the Royals figuring out a way to screw Tulo up.

I doubt the Nats and Brewers are complaining too much about getting Zimmerman and Braun rather than Tulo, though.

by Tom (RFTN) on Jan 19, 2011 11:09 AM MST up reply actions  

I don't much mind about Heyward

Half the teams in the league passed on him. His future wasn’t obvious. Longoria, otoh, thought he would be a Rockie the day before the draft and was pretty clearly the top player available.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 9:43 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Longoria

If the Rockies really wanted a college pitcher that badly, that Lincecum kid was available at #2…

by Tom (RFTN) on Jan 19, 2011 11:10 AM MST up reply actions  

haven't you heard?

he’s too short to throw baseballs. FACT: only 6’8" pitchers are tall enough to reach home plate.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 11:11 AM MST up reply actions  

With an arm everyone figured would fall off by now

and I’m still hoping it does, nothing personal against the guy.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 11:11 AM MST up reply actions  

That was the knock, I remember.

Of course, even if his arm fell off tomorrow the Rockies would have already gotten more from him than they’ll ever get from Reynolds.

by Tom (RFTN) on Jan 19, 2011 11:13 AM MST up reply actions  

True

 I just remember Reynolds being the safe pick wasn’t going to blow the roof off but he was going to be a solid 2-3 in years to come… Shows how easy it is to predict that stuff. His health has been terrible and Lincecum looks fine.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 11:14 AM MST up reply actions  

Also,

Reynolds did better in a head-to-head during the season.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
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by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 11:15 AM MST up reply actions  

Its because Lincecum has been throwing that way his entire life

and uses his legs more than anybody, which presumably leads to a lot less stress on his arm. Or that’s my hypothesis anyway…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 11:16 AM MST up reply actions  

Its also why I think guys

who were converted to pitcher later are greater risks – and I’ll conveniently cite Casey Weathers as an example (while ignoring Esmil)…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 11:17 AM MST up reply actions  

The flipside to that argument

is that guys who were converted to pitching later have less wear and tear on their arms — some guys who have been pitching since they were 12 practically have a dead arm by the time they graduate from college.

by Tom (RFTN) on Jan 19, 2011 11:18 AM MST up reply actions  

ooo good point

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 11:47 AM MST up reply actions  

To be fair

There was a lot of fail in the first few picks of the ‘06 draft. The Rockies weren’t the only ones (Luke Hochevar? Andrew Miller?)

by Tom (RFTN) on Jan 19, 2011 11:17 AM MST up reply actions  

I

don’t buy the part of Friedrich as being part of the change of course. Friedrich was considered to be the best left college pitcher and just dropped as other teams looked in different directions.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 9:30 AM MST up reply actions  

I don't either

Do you have a link to the chat?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 9:37 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Doesn't start

until 3 ET and it’s subscribers only.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

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Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 9:39 AM MST up reply actions  

Agreed.

I remember so many other draft followers asking what Friedrich did to piss off the other 17 teams.

by Andrew Martin on Jan 19, 2011 11:18 AM MST up reply actions  

I think Friedrich might have been the beginning of the best player available

Rather then the end of the previous cycle. The injury is why they are lumping them together but that’s a weird way to clump draft picks not like the Rockies decided to switch from drafting players that would get injured to players that wouldn’t.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 11:21 AM MST up reply actions  

I think so

Remember the Rockies were drafting at #26 that year, so a lot of the sure-thing players were already gone at that point.

by Tom (RFTN) on Jan 19, 2011 11:23 AM MST up reply actions  

Holy crap. That lineup could be amazing.

And that rotation! Friedrich as the fifth starter? Jeepers.

by Shoemaker on Jan 19, 2011 9:29 AM MST up reply actions  

So arenado has the best IF arm...

but is getting shifted to 1B which I can understand. How does he project defensively at First compared to Third.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 10:04 AM MST up reply actions  

to be fair, the club has specifically said they are keeping Arenado at third for the time being

(and his arm isn’t the problem, it’s his footwork)

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 10:12 AM MST up reply actions  

I think this is the right move

Keep him at third for now and see if he improves. If not, you can always slide him over to first later on. If you move him to 1B now, you really can’t go back very easily.

72 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 19, 2011 10:18 AM MST up reply actions  

Exactly.

I'm GoRockies!! everybody :P

by CentralCaliRox on Jan 19, 2011 1:33 PM MST up reply actions  

if it is between Arenado and Stewart, Stewart definitely stays at third

He has a fine arm and is better overall defensively. Arenado projects as adequate at best at third, but his arm is The best part of his game, which would be mitigated at first. I wouldn’t expect him to be above average at first for That reason, but he would be better than Giambi.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 10:15 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Just for fun

Take a look at what they said about 2010 before the 2007 started. Make sure to look at the number one starter and closer if you want a good laugh.

72 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 19, 2011 10:04 AM MST up reply actions  

I nearly busted up when I saw that.

Well, I believe in the soul, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.

by Rox Fever on Jan 19, 2011 10:08 AM MST up reply actions  

I like 2014's projection an awful lot more

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 10:13 AM MST up reply actions  

Of course...

The real question is… In 2014 will we like that projection just as much, or we will be looking forward to 2018 and laughing at 2014’s.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 10:22 AM MST up reply actions  

2010's is pretty mediocre any way you look at it

2014 has some actual upside

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 10:29 AM MST up reply actions  

But we have no closer in 2014!!

doomed

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 10:29 AM MST up reply actions  

Closer? We won't need no stinking closer.

Our starters will either throw complete games or we’ll be so far ahead in the late innings that a closer will be irrelevant.

by Shoemaker on Jan 19, 2011 10:31 AM MST up reply actions  

TRUTH

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 10:57 AM MST up reply actions  

or using the remnants of Matt Belisle's arm

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 10:33 AM MST up reply actions  

But

we’re not supposed to take those things seriously.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
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by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 10:13 AM MST up reply actions  

RF Ian Stewart

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 10:27 AM MST up reply actions  

That one was actually a possibility.

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 11:21 AM MST up reply actions  

And still would be

if not for the Lopez pickup which is why I don’t mock them too much for choices like that they’re not going to predict who a team signs and blocks a young player but Stewart in RF is interesting, considering that even back then most Rockies fans were already moving Atkins away from third due to defense when stewart arrived.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 11:23 AM MST up reply actions  

keep in mind that report came out after the 2006 season

I’m not sure any Rockies fans were in A rush to push Garrett Atkins out after that monster season. That season sparked the debate of where else Stewart could play.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 12:02 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

right?!

that one inning impact with a 3-run-or-less lead is totally as valuable as pitching 6-7 innings.

by Andrew Martin on Jan 19, 2011 11:39 AM MST up reply actions  

I think their line of thought was

Ubaldo had really good stuff but his control wasn’t the best at that point, so they thought he’d be better off closing.

by Tom (RFTN) on Jan 19, 2011 11:46 AM MST up reply actions  

Yeah they pretty much swapped Morales for Jimenez

easy enough to do Morales still hasn’t garnered control/confidence and Jimenez has risen to the top

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 11:48 AM MST up reply actions  

Yes, he has a very "snappy" quality to his pitches.

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 12:21 PM MST up reply actions  

He doesn't seem to have a different motion

for runners on vs bases empty in that video. I also wonder if he’ll have any platoon issues because of his almost sidearm delivery.

That being said, his stuff looks awesome…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 10:56 AM MST up reply actions  

WOW!

it looks like he’s throwing a frisbee 92 mph

by BringItHome on Jan 19, 2011 12:20 PM MST up reply actions  

I heard more Pedro Astacio around draft day

But he has sharp movement and upper 90s fastball. Exciting stuff, but he hasn’t pitched in the minors yet. May follow the Matzek path of extended spring, then start in low-A Asheville later in the season

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 10:40 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah I heard that too

Just heard 1 clip comparing him to MArtinez which of course I’m going to use :P

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 10:46 AM MST up reply actions  

The Other thing that's nice about where the Rockies are as an organization

Is they can take these cautious paths with starters. With JLDR signed for at least 2 years the rotation is fairly set for the next year or two (injuries can always change this of course_. These young players will have to push their way onto the MLB team not just be given a spot

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 11:01 AM MST up reply actions  

Yea, throwing Friedrich in there with Reynolds and Weathers seems unfair

or like it doesn’t belong or something…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 10:27 AM MST up reply actions  

including being made of glass

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 1:15 PM MST up reply actions  

he is one of those guys whose potential doesn't manifest wholly in stats

Part of that is because injuries have slowed his ability for consistent playing time. But he is incredibly toolsy.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 1:30 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

interesting thanks

and being just 22 he has some time to bounce back I guess.

by BringItHome on Jan 19, 2011 1:34 PM MST up reply actions  

well, not that projected 2014 order anyway...

but he has a lot more power potential than Nelson, by middle of the order, I was talking about his 20 to 25 HR capability.

by Rox Girl on Jan 19, 2011 1:42 PM MST up reply actions  

I was thinking six, but I'd personally have him bat seventh in that lineup.

Fowler
Arenado
Cargo
Tulo
Stewart
Rosario
Gomez
Parker
pitcher

Parker’s out of place in the eighth slot, but he’s more likely to draw walks than Gomez. I’m actually guessing that Stewart’s gone and Gomez hasn’t developed. For some reason I’m bullish on Parker and see a more likely 2014 lineup like this:

Fowler CF
Arenado 3B
Cargo RF
Tulo SS
Parker LF
Rosario C
Player X 1B
Field 2B

I really don’t know who Player X is, but I like the flexibility of keeping it open and think it might be easier to fill than third base.

by Rox Girl on Jan 19, 2011 2:21 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm bookmarking this comment

It will be posted on purple Row three years from today.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 3:21 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

well, maybe, but we'll have to sign him at a discount.

I don’t know if the Rockies can afford a Jose Lopez type of bat.

:)

by Rox Girl on Jan 19, 2011 5:05 PM MST up reply actions  

by then discounts will be affordable

as we will have to chase people off with baseball bats because they like it here so much.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 19, 2011 5:07 PM MST up reply actions  

his weak OBP

is what makes me hesitant to give him so much credit.

by BringItHome on Jan 19, 2011 1:48 PM MST up reply actions  

Frankly this is a case where I'm relying more on the tools than the stats.

He’s just the type of player you don’t ever really want to give up on.

I lied when I said he had some plate discipline, btw, I didn’t realize how badly it’s stagnated the last couple of seasons.

by Rox Girl on Jan 19, 2011 1:34 PM MST up reply actions  

couldn't this be related to his injury history though?

when healthy, he’s always trying to make something happen instead of showing patience

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 1:55 PM MST up reply actions  

he WAS anyhow

I have to think his ceiling has dropped with all the injuries he’s sustained.

by Andrew Martin on Jan 19, 2011 1:18 PM MST up reply actions  

he's still young I guess

even when healthy he doesn’t seem like a middle of the order type bat to me.

by BringItHome on Jan 19, 2011 1:21 PM MST up reply actions  

how would they drop his ceiling?

They severely impact his likelihood of reaching that ceiling, but they really don’t drop it.

by Rox Girl on Jan 19, 2011 1:24 PM MST up reply actions  

Didn't Seattle sign Lopez to that contract before trading him to us?

I don’t think he was ever actually unsigned while in our possession this season, and it just went largely unreported by the media.

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 9:58 AM MST reply actions  

Yes, this is true

We did not sign Lopez.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 19, 2011 10:04 AM MST up reply actions  

Just think of the win surplus from that signing

Based off of RoxGirls prediction. I think she had him at 6 wins at least with her .950 OPS, and we’re paying him for less then 1 win. Nice saving of 25 million dollars.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 10:53 AM MST up reply actions  

I know people here were talking about all the picks the Rays have in the upcoming draft

Mondo mentioned the Orioles having a spectacularly crappy draft one year. Not sure if this was it, but they had 7 picks within the first 50. They got Brian Roberts and 6 non-major leaguers. To be fair though, it doesn’t seem like there was much talent in the draft (though the second round had some good talent… and so did the 18th pick of the 13th round)

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 11:46 AM MST reply actions  

post-hype sleeper alert!

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Jan 19, 2011 12:02 PM MST up reply actions  

the Rays just signed infielder Daniel Mayora

If that name is familiar, its because he was a former Rockies prospect. So he just got two stars added to his name as a prospect right?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 11:57 AM MST via mobile reply actions  

Yeap

Kind of like Yankee’s prospects when they get traded lose value.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 11:58 AM MST up reply actions  

Haha, Mayora

I remember an OOTP league where he filled out like a madman but had an absolutely wooden glove. We nicknamed him DHaniel Mayora, and then I traded him to the Yankees for Jeff Marquez and I think Austin Jackson

by Andrew Martin on Jan 19, 2011 11:59 AM MST up reply actions  

seriously...

I was trying to argue for Wilin Rosario ahead of Jake McGee yesterday at minorleagueball.com. McGee’s got one useful pitch, is going to turn 25 years old this season, is stuck in the bullpen, and would be stuck in the bullpen for 2/3 of MLB teams. Rosario’s a 22 year old catcher with All-Star potential. Easy call right?

Nope, McGee’s actually just 24 and going to be 24 the whole year, he has a change-up which he could throw anytime he wants to and it’s a really really solid pitch despite the fact the team doesn’t want him touching it at the MLB level and his slider, which he throws ten percent of the time and has a negative value is plus, maybe super plus and really McGee is like this top of the rotation stud. ANYWHERE. WE CAN’T HEAR YOU LALALALALALA…..

by Rox Girl on Jan 19, 2011 12:12 PM MST up reply actions  

can we trade Roasiaroio for this McGee person?

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 12:15 PM MST up reply actions  

Rosey-Arroyo

Is how I pronounced that.

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 12:18 PM MST up reply actions  

OT: Just decided to go to SXSW again this year instead of Spring Training

I’m confident in my decision.

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 12:31 PM MST reply actions  

annnd wrong thread. FFS

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 12:33 PM MST up reply actions  

He was referring to Spring Training.

Well, I believe in the soul, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.

by Rox Fever on Jan 19, 2011 12:55 PM MST up reply actions  

I did mention Spring Training...

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 12:55 PM MST up reply actions  

And the Creator speaks.

I totally agree with you RG.

@charliedrysdale

by Charlie77 on Jan 19, 2011 4:30 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Got a Spring Training ticket today

For the Saturday night I’ll be there. Checked the seats available the rest of the time I’ll be in town, and I’ll take my chances for now. They looked like a lot of good seats were still available.

Thanks everyone for the heads up on getting Saturday night tickets early.

by Yokel on Jan 19, 2011 12:52 PM MST reply actions  

The BA chat

on the Rockies started early.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

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by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 12:57 PM MST reply actions  

You going to...

…keep us filled in on the big things?

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 1:26 PM MST up reply actions  

Cristhian Adames

and Rafael Ortega not even Top 30 prospects . . . yet.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
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by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 1:29 PM MST up reply actions  

that's really interesting

Considering one of their teammates at the same age/experience was a candidate for top 10.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 1:33 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Albert Campos, Charlie Blackmon (No. 11)

and Rosell Herrera all were strong candidates for top 10.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
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by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 1:30 PM MST up reply actions  

Can you ask them what they think about Chad Bettis?

I’d like to know what they think his upside is.

72 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 19, 2011 1:29 PM MST up reply actions  

Ringolsby is answering Qs.

Keeping Bettis as a starter for now.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
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by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 1:33 PM MST up reply actions  

Pacheco

more of a super utility guy.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
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by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 1:31 PM MST up reply actions  

he does kind of look like Jeff Baker. Come to think of it, they’ve been seen in the same room together.

by BringItHome on Jan 19, 2011 1:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Parker Frazier

could see majors end of 2011, more likely middle 2012.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
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by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 1:36 PM MST up reply actions  

good sign for his TJ recovery

I’m still a huge Frazier fan

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 1:56 PM MST up reply actions  

By "making the majors", do you mean appearing on the team in any capacity, or having a full-time spot?

Because it’s a lot more likely Casey Weathers appears this season than Parker Frazier, whether as an injury replacement or, more likely, a September callup.

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 4:39 PM MST up reply actions  

I assume Russ meant a call-up..

Which I could see happening this season. Both played in Tri-cities and Modesto last season, but Parker has been mainly showcased as a Starter (he hasn’t appeared as a reliever since before 2008). Casey’s SO/9 are amazing (12.1 in Modesto, 12.2 in his MiLB career).

@charliedrysdale

by Charlie77 on Jan 19, 2011 6:35 PM MST up reply actions  

Yes,

Parker Frazier as a Sept. call-up.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 6:53 PM MST up reply actions  

Do you see him being called up before Weathers?

His SO/9 and WHIP aren’t real special. (7.4 and 1.304 WHIP)

@charliedrysdale

by Charlie77 on Jan 19, 2011 7:04 PM MST up reply actions  

See what he does in 2011, but

I’d put it at 55-45.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 7:06 PM MST up reply actions  

Now if only George Frazier could see the minors by then...

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

Bazinga!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Jan 19, 2011 6:34 PM MST up reply actions  

Rockies just signed Joe Crede

I wanted to type that a few years ago.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 2:03 PM MST via mobile reply actions  

(pretty much my reaction as well)

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 2:04 PM MST up reply actions  

yep

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 2:11 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

yep

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 2:12 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

@realRockies

Im still not good at c/p links on this phone

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 2:11 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Can you like via moble?

72 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 19, 2011 2:11 PM MST up reply actions  

But it also says he has 0.000 service time

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 19, 2011 3:33 PM MST up reply actions  

Because I haven't updated it yet

Still looking for it.

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 3:34 PM MST up reply actions  

I've updated it to his last known.

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 3:37 PM MST up reply actions  

http://twitter.com/#!/RealRockies/status/27833386148036609

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 2:11 PM MST up reply actions  

Ian Stewart

has landed in Denver:

THE_IAN_STEWART ian stewart
Landed in Denver…feels weird being back but excited for the weekend…rental car then smash burger

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 2:11 PM MST reply actions  

I would have tried that

just for the hell of it.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 2:18 PM MST up reply actions  

Mmmm, Smash Burger

Caution: Colorado teams are better than they appear.

by ShadowPenguin on Jan 19, 2011 2:17 PM MST up reply actions  

He offered to buy lunch for anyone meeting him

He likes the SmashBurger on Colorado Blvd.

Ignorance of the American League is a sign of good moral character.

I used to be normal until I met these losers I now call my friends.

"Cheap tacos are rightous!"-My Daughter

by RdRnnr on Jan 19, 2011 2:44 PM MST up reply actions  

Dude, I live 2 minutes from that

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 2:48 PM MST up reply actions  

And there's going to be precipitation falling soon

You should take a walk.

72 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 19, 2011 2:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Snow is already falling here

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 3:08 PM MST up reply actions  

It's perfect then

72 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 19, 2011 3:09 PM MST up reply actions  

I was just out on a walk to the mailbox.

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 3:10 PM MST up reply actions  

I wish I wasn't at work right now.

I’d totally take him up on that offer.

Well, I believe in the soul, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.

by Rox Fever on Jan 19, 2011 3:04 PM MST up reply actions  

Just curious...

Are the Rockies opening up any more opportunities for Purple Row to interview any of their personal or players.

by Chacinisthefuture on Jan 19, 2011 2:59 PM MST reply actions  

And I'll refrain

from making snide remarks about the FO and that kind of stuff.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

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by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 3:02 PM MST up reply actions  

CRAZY RUMOR:

WE AlReaDY havE 1!!!!

(Not true in the least bit.)

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Jan 19, 2011 3:05 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm secretly Troy Tulowitzki.

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 3:19 PM MST up reply actions  

not even close on personality

But I am secretly Jeff Francis.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 3:22 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Hence the absurdity of the comment. :D

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 3:23 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm secretly Troy Tulowitzki

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 3:27 PM MST up reply actions  

I know better.

But that would be hilarious.

Well, I believe in the soul, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.

by Rox Fever on Jan 19, 2011 3:51 PM MST up reply actions  

Self loathing huh?

Optimism Warrior
2011 Colorado Zombies-DeadWalking to the NL West crown
Todd and Troy: Because they ARE Rockies.
QPU #4, YHEG #4, Proud Member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Jan 19, 2011 3:51 PM MST up reply actions  

wolf made a funny?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 19, 2011 4:12 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

you'd better watch out

I know of someone who might be creeping around your house trying to steal articles of clothing and such

by Andrew Martin on Jan 19, 2011 3:26 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm also Matt Belisle.

He can guard.

RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates

by Greg Stanwood on Jan 19, 2011 3:27 PM MST up reply actions  

Don't be ridiculous

I’m far too many miles away to pull that off :-)

71 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 20, 2011 8:06 AM MST up reply actions  

Apparently the Yankees offered Carl Pavano a 1 year, $10 million contract + incentives. And he turned them down.

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 19, 2011 3:42 PM MST reply actions  

The article said he thought about it though.

Well, I believe in the soul, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.

by Rox Fever on Jan 19, 2011 3:52 PM MST up reply actions  

The Yankees will come back with 3/45, and he'll turn that down, too

Then sign with the Twins for 1/8m.

Is it ApRil yet?

Any number above zero is way too many days before Pitchers and Catchers Reports

by Mondogarage on Jan 19, 2011 5:48 PM MST up reply actions  

Well

the new stadium hasn’t been very nice to pitchers with a PF of 113 according to b-r, not that it matters too much. It’s still funny.

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all. ~Earl Weaver
Baseball fans love numbers. They love to swirl them around their mouths like Bordeaux wine. ~Pat Conroy
JFK

by jrockies on Jan 19, 2011 4:29 PM MST up reply actions  

Isn't it great!?!?!

71 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Jan 20, 2011 8:10 AM MST up reply actions  

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