Thursday Rockpile: Why starting Ian Stewart at third base in 2012 is a very bad idea
by Rox Girl on Oct 20, 2011 9:33 AM MDT
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The St. Louis Cardinals took game one of the World Series yesterday, an accomplishment very few of the leading sabrmetric writers would have predicted on the day they traded Colby Rasmus and others for Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel and Mark Rzepczynski. In fact, St. Louis pulled several moves that were counter to what's become the conventional model to get to where they are. They dumped defensive specialist Brendan Ryan at shortstop and added defensive liability Lance Berkman to the outfield. They got rid of a young and talented player before his prime in Rasmus for relief help and an erratic flamethrower in Jackson.
It certainly helps that the Cardinals already had an all time great player in Albert Pujols and another near that category in former Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday, not to mention Berkman, who's also going to be in the Hall of Fame picture if he's not already a lock.
At any rate, I believe that the lesson to be learned from St. Louis is that our understanding of the sport is incomplete, that for example defense can't be predicted with as much accuracy as we think it can when players switch positions or teams. Which leads me to my rebuttal of Jeff Aberle's points in yesterday's Rockpile. And there's no disrespect intended, this just happens to be a situation where we've come to vastly different conclusions based on the evidence we have at hand.
1. Ian Stewart isn't a very good baseball player. Mike Pagliarulo had a long career as a journeyman and was a bit of a hero for the Minnesota Twins in the 1991 post season, but Pagliarulo isn't exactly the prototype most fans will think of when they put together their ideal third base candidate. Pagliarulo is Ian Stewart's most similar histoircal hitter through age 26 according to Baseball Reference. Shane Andrews, who was a bench player through his prime and barely seen in the majors after turning 29, is second. Either way, the Rockies could do better.
2. It's possible that Ian Stewart could be the same sinkhole he was in 2011. The basic idea that works in the macro-sense is that player values regress to around their career average, this should particularly be true for players in their primes. This suggests that Jose Lopez will rebound in 2011 after a miserable season in 2010. Oh wait, we're a year forward now... but maybe you get my point. Just as sometimes players break out to the plus side and never look back after so called fluke seasons, it's very possible that Stewart has found a new level of performance. Jeff's scenario of a rebound is more likely, but the possibility of Stewart being the player he was in 2011 is simply too big to ignore.
3. Nolan Arenado probably is ready to take over, right now. I actually agree with Jeff's points about not trading for David Wright or signing Aramis Ramirez to a too expensive, too long contract, but I'm in this camp because Arenado's readiness makes it not worth it. I actually think Stewart could very well start in 2012 for the Rockies, but he won't be needed for long, with Arenado likely forcing his way in before the middle of June. Arenado's learning curve is very high, very fast. Given his professional career to date, he's not going to need the AA and AAA time that a lot of people seem to expect, if he needs it at all to adjust to major league play.
4. Because the obvious alternatives aren't appealing doesn't mean that there aren't better options available. This is where a good GM will earn his stripes. We've gone through the list of available free agents and known trade chips and found them lacking, but maybe that just means that Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies need to dig deeper for a better solution. The Reds have a logjam at third with Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco ready and Scott Rolen the incumbent. Any of the three might be available, and all three could represent upgrades in 2012 over Stewart. Rolen in particular might be a relatively cheap trade target due to his age, $6.5 million due in the final year of his contract, and bad 2011 season. He's still a lifetime 124 wRC+ hitter, and an ideal right handed complement to not only Stewart, but our left hand heavy outfield.
Anyway, I'm very late as is right now, the main point is that the Rockies don't have to settle for the players we think are available to them, and they don't have to settle for Stewart if they didn't want to.
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Bravo.
I am on the side of tendering Stewart and seeing what happens, but I love hearing the other side.
I would not shed any tears if he was traded, and Juan Francisco is a great suggestion. Two players in very similar “show me” points in their career that could potentially benefit from a scenery change.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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Does Stewart have any value left?
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
Good writeup
I disagree with point #3 though being an argument for your side. To me, the sooner you think Arenado is going to be ready, the more of an argument there is to start the season with Stewart at 3B because the damage he can do there in the limited amount of time before we give Arenado a shot will be minimized. It’s if Arenado is not going to be ready for most of the 2012 season and you believe that Stewart will fall flat on his face again that provides the best arguement for getting someone other than Stewart to start the season at third because you will actually need them there for most of the season.
I was pretty disgusted after the Rockies season, but the rapid demise of the I-95 teams have helped with that.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2011 10:03 AM MDT reply actions
I agree, but to me this is actually equivalent to writing in Arenado as the 3B starter for 2012, though.
Since this scenario sees him getting a majority of the starts. If the Rockies do keep Stewart as the opening day starter, I really do think it means that they feel Arenado’s ready to take over at any time.
Got ya
So you think the writing is on the wall for Stewart either by opening day when we pick up somebody else or shortly after when he is supplanted by Arenado?
I was pretty disgusted after the Rockies season, but the rapid demise of the I-95 teams have helped with that.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2011 10:14 AM MDT up reply actions
Pretty much, yes.
I think that Stewart’s no longer an upside play for the organization, but a placeholder. If his upside manifests itself in a last opportunity, then that opinion might change, but I don’t believe that the Rockies are counting on it.
Repeating myself from past rockpiles
but the placeholder idea makes the most sense for this team barring dramatic changes elsewhere. I am of the view that Stewart, while certainly not as putrid as 2011, is no longer a guy that any GM or manager should consider a likely everyday 3b. But I would rather hope and wish on a dream of Stew to be the guy we thought he might be in 2009 rather than spend a lot of (any) assets to get a marginal upgrade (Rolenish) for 2012 when the rest of the team is not going to be good enough for it to matter and Arenado is waiting. And God willing Stew actually plays himself into a deadline deal worth something. Hopin and wishin.
Either big moves now and Stewart moves along down the road, or let’s start gearing this thing for a big 2013. 2012 could surprise us, but it probably won’t, Ian Stewart or no.
Ian.......we had so much hope for ye.
It was supposed to have to have been Gonzalez, Tulo, Stewart 3-4-5, hitting dingers and wrecking some NL West.
Time to move on, we need a big middle of the order 3B bat. I have watched and read about this kid since he played in Asheville, he is not going to get “it”. I am done with Stewart.
#acceptance is the last stage.
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
/it is a new beginning, right?
by The Lodo Magic Man on Oct 20, 2011 11:39 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Wouldn't Stewart be an expensive placeholder?
He has to make at least $2.5 mil, right? That’s a lot to pay someone for 2.5 months. I get the 2.5 months from the mid-June cutoff date for bringing up players without sacrificing an extra year of eligbility. That’s my guess about the Rockies’ plans for Arenado: put him in AA until mid-June while a placeholder (Wiggy parttime, Nelson parttime, a Kous-type journeyman, or Stew) treads water.
Trouble is, that’s long enough to sacrifice a season if you’re gettting 2011 Stew or 2011 Lopez-type production at 3B.
The Rays (ever mindful of payroll & holding onto players as long as they can) were park Longoria in AAA until the mid-June cutoff in 2008, but the team veterans and fans raised such stink that the team wasn’t putting its best players on the field, that they changed plans & brought him up in May. They went the World Series in 2008, and probably wouldn’t if they’d waited another 6 weeks to bring him up. The issue may be similarly forced on Arenado.
I keep coming back to this: if Arenado will do more to help the team win in April than other 3B candidates, he should get the job, regardless of whether it’s the optimal career development path or whether it takes him until 2013 to be “fully ready.” If his destruction of the AFL carries over into ST, he should be the starter in 2012.
What is the point of rushing Arenado though?
We don’t have the pitching presently to make a playoff run in 2012. And much as we might be making of him, it is unlikely that Arenado is close to Longoria level.
But I do agree with the notion that if he’s ready, let’s go with it. I just don’t see the incentive to rush the guy to help us go 13-16 in April rather than 11-18, assuming he’s arguably that impactful.
Hey I hear you
and I’ve been promoting big moves all winter. I’d like nothing more than some confidence-inspiring moves to give hope for 2012. But we can’t win without a pitching staff either. This team has a LOT of holes. 3b is a big one, but man there are so many things that need to be done for a competitive 2012.
They can't win without a decent pitching staff either
Which they may not have in 2012. IF that’s the case, it’s better to let Arenado keep growing at AA next season and have him cost controlled longer than it is to bring him up when he’s already better than every other option but still needs to learn some things.
I was pretty disgusted after the Rockies season, but the rapid demise of the I-95 teams have helped with that.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2011 12:04 PM MDT up reply actions
I feel the same way about the pitching staff
If Bettis is a better starting pitcher at the end of ST than Hammel, Rogers or White, put him in the rotation.
Put the best team on the field & try to win, rather than trying to plan the future based on what we hope our prized prospects will do some year when we decide they should be ready.
Greg Reynolds
Franklin Morales
There’s good reasons not to rush players.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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Reynolds was rushed?
Not really. He was just an emergency fill-in when first brought up. He didn’t have sustained outstanding minor league performance that warranted a real look at the Majors level. He also just wasn’t that good. He wasn’t hitting 100 mph in the minors. Bettis did.
I don’t think Morales has changed throughout his career or that his early call-up had anything to do with his subsequent performance. He’s always been great stuff, erratic as hell and always will be. With the right umpiring crew in the Sox last series w/ the Orioles, he’d have balked them right out of the playoffs & kept Papelbon from taking the heat.
Reynolds as rushed
is an interesting question. I recall at the time he was still considered a legit prospect, though much of that might have just been homerism. But he clearly didn’t look ready. As you note, though, he may never have been ready.
I want to win too
but I’m not sure the “put all prospects in the bigs” strategy is necessarily the best. Look at what happened to White, for example. There is a reason that GMs and managers like veterans, and it isn’t purely to start internet wars.
What I think should be the minimum service level
for a minor league callup (outside of the occasional Strasburg or Posey “special case”) is two years of superior performance at whatever level they’re at, with at least one of those levels being High A. Arenado & Bettis fit that. Both belonged in AA by the end of last season, and Arenado’s AFL stint confirms that.
At least that should be the case for an org. like the Rockies that has almost nothing in the way of Major League-ready talent at the AAA level. If your farm system really goes no higher than AA, you need to put the best High A players into the mix.
I don't know if you are right or wrong
but I think its not crazy to wait a bit for these guys. The team is not going to the playoffs with a ton of rookies playing. But perhaps you are right that it would be better for development. I also think there are locker room dynamics at play that militate against over-promotion of too many youngsters. Fair or not, its a real issue.
I agree to some extent.
I think the Rockies have to be very careful with the amount of assets, either personnel, money, or whatever they put into this to not overpay at 3B for 2012 and leave the cupboard bare at other positions for the seasons after that, but I disagree that looking for an upgrade over Stewart, or even extra insurance against him repeating 2011 is somehow detrimental. Rolen, for example, is not going to cost close to the same level of prospect return that Wright would, and may be available strictly as a salary dump. He’s less than half as expensive for 2012 in salary as Wright, and that money would be off the books for 2013. To me, that sort of move would make sense, whereas trading the farm for one season of Wright would not.
As another example of the not so obvious type of move I’m talking about, look at what the A’s did mid-season in 2011 to pick up Scott Sizemore for David Purcey. Sizemore had a hugely successful minor league career, but the Tigers had seen enough after just 65 games of him struggling at the MLB level, while Purcey was a so-so reliever off to a good start in Oakland’s pitching paradise. After the trade, Sizemore blossomed with regular playing time to be one of the A’s very few bright spots offensively, while Purcey tanked in Detroit. That a clear improvement on the Rockies own 2011 struggles was so readily available irks me, but there are going to be other Sizemores out there. If the Reds are frustrated with him, Juan Francisco might be one. If Arenado works out and we have Francisco too, well, I don’t think any of us are going to be too upset. One of them can switch to the OF or take over for Helton in a couple of seasons, or even just be a monumental improvement over our 2011 bench.
Meanwhile, hoping for a rebound in a player’s trade value seldom works out the way we want it to. I guess a counter argument could be that maybe Stewart is the next Sizemore type, but he’s had a lot more opportunity to show this at the MLB level than Sizemore did before the Tigers traded him.
I guess my bottom line is that yeah, don’t go hogwild and hurt the big picture (2013 and beyond) for the small picture (2012) but that doesn’t mean you have to keep your hands tied on improving the short term.
Another not-too-expensive possibility
Chris Johnson of the Astros. Good 2010, sent back to AAA after a bad 2011 start, did well late-season upon his return. They have Jimmy Paredes (obtained for Berkman from the Yanks) as their “3B of the future” and might part w/ Johnson for a reasonable price in prospects.
Daniel Murphy from the Mets?
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
by Roxman4ever on Oct 20, 2011 12:32 PM MDT up reply actions
Prospects would be quite heavy, I'd think.
I don’t hate Murphy though. As second baseman.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 1:04 PM MDT up reply actions
What would anybody think of Alberto Callaspo?
Saw him mentioned as a non-tender candidate in a Jason Churchill insider piece on ESPiN today.
I’m not wild about the idea, but he should be pretty cheap, and might have some versatility once Arenado arrives on the scene…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Oct 20, 2011 4:33 PM MDT up reply actions
I have no beef with this
my view is simply that, while I don’t really buy it, I can’t totally foreclose the “Stewart may still get it” camp, and I’d rather take the 10% shot that he recovers some value (with Arenado as a backup) rather than spend the money on a Rolenish “we know this is nothing big” type of move. But as you note, so long as it doesn’t bleed into 2013, I really don’t care. Frankly we could go get Todd Zeile again and my perceptions of our likely 3b production wouldn’t change.
But to me the team needs to first identify a philosophy before making a decision on Stewart. All of this is mostly just noise (of course, perfectly fair for offseason) until we know the direction fo the team.
I think this is Aberle's thinking. I can understand where you both are coming from.
But this is where I came to the conclusion of liking the idea of a Michael Cuddyer type who can play multiple positions and who can actually hit for value (unlike Ty Wigginton) and playing him at third short term while Arenado shows he’s ready, than moving him to another position of need at that point as you’ve then upgraded two positions in the Arenado works out scenario. In the Arenado’s not ready scenario (or the Keith Law, he can’t pretend at third scenario) you’re more certain to have upgraded at one than you are just hoping for that 10% chance on Stewart working out you’re talking about. Sticking with Stewart does nothing to improve the overall talent level of the team for 2012, 2013, or anytime, it’s still the same organizational pipeline that’s come up dry two years running, whereas if it’s done smartly, looking to the outside could improve both next season and the years after that.
Even if it does just marginally improve 2012 at low/minimal cost to the future (as it would with my Rolen scenario,) I still see some revenue benefit in keeping the faith of the average fan that there’s something to be hoped for and worth seeing the Rockies in 2012. And as the Diamondbacks this past season showed, several small improvements can amount to a large turnaround.
Ditto with the Cards
They took a chance on injured free agent vet (Berkman — an equivalent to your Rolen suggestion) to add to the lineup behind their 2 superstars, then traded a top young prospect (Rasmus) for some pieces that filled out their team nicely.
They’re doing pretty well last I heard.
DOD
might want to acquire Rolen just for the purpose of shutting up the fan base since he’s kind of a big name in a way…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Fair enough
I agree that looking for improvements is the right approach. Perhaps I am just too defeatist in my view of the likelihood of finding any. I seriously doubt we get Cuddyer, or any clear upgrade. My expectation is that if not Stew, it will be some other underachiever or has-been that, while certainly better than what Stew was in 2011, is no clear material upgrade to what Stew might be in 2012. And given my (low) view of DOD’s risk-taking, I’m just not setting myself up for disappointment when the guy trots out to 3b next year.
But don’t get me wrong. I really do want to see major changes for 2012, and a real effort made towards competing. I’m just waiting for the FO to give me some reason to believe. Absent that, I’m not going to get too worked up over Year 5 of the Stewart Experiment.
It's why I'd still take a serious run at SD for Headley...
I’m not sanguin about any FA this year. If the Rox are going to improve it would be by trade. If they say no they say no. He can still play left or 1b for us if we decide to afford him long term. He’s valuable enough to flip for pitching prospects if not or you can get the draft picks when he FA’s. To me that’s well worth one of our front line pitching prospects and what ever else they might want in a position prospect besides Nolan.
He’d be a good five hole candidate for us. Or you could hit him third and let Cargo protect Tulo and be a second leadoff in the middle of the order.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
headley hasn't played OF since 2009
and he was really bad (-12.9 UZR/150)
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
be happy, because 2012 is coming.
I thought you didn't take much stock in defensive metrics?
At his age I don’t hink Cuddyer would be much better long term Headley might still improve in the OF. As a swithch hitter he would not have to be platooned. Smith could either be traded or moved to 1b. Or Headley platoons with Todd. I’d say the same if we got Prado too as far as positioning only Prado plays 2b too.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
wow, that's like Lance Berkman bad.
Since we all know how absolutely infallible UZR is about predicting what a player’s defensive ability will be when switching positions and teams, I’m glad you bring this up, as there’s no reason anybody in their right mind would want to have Chase Headley if he can’t play third base. I’m with Oldfoagie on this, were he to be available (which indications are he’s not.) Take the player let the position sort itself out later. If it can’t, Headley will still be valuable enough (unlike Stewart) to merit a return similar to what you give up for him. If the short term position switch does work out, no Rockies fan would complain.
that sounds familiar..........
lol
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 2:11 PM MDT up reply actions
Again.
If we’re going to acquire a guy like Michael Cuddyer, then insert Arenado in midseason, where does Cuddyer go? I’d have to think Seth Smith would be traded in the scenario we sign Cuddyer, otherwise it just doesn’t play out as nicely as you think.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 1:05 PM MDT up reply actions
No, actually my scenario typically works out better than yours does.
Your scenario, doing nothing, leaves the Rockies with Stewart, Seth Smith, Ty Wigginton and Charlie Blackmon or an equivalent. When Arenado is ready, one of Stewart, Wigginton or Blackmon gets moved out, but the bench is still pretty putrid. My scenario has them with Cuddyer, Smith, Wigginton and Blackmon or a similar level OF. When Arenado is ready, Wigginton or the back-up OF get moved out. I’d much rather have my team, losing two of that Wigginton/Stewart/Blackmon group than yours, losing just one, particularly given the upgrade that Cuddyer, Rolen or Smith would be over their level. You can’t ignore the bench, it was a major issue for the Rockies in 2011, and Stewart for a period was part of that issue. He’s just not going to be a quality enough player to spend as many AB’s on as that scenario suggests you will. I’d also rather limit Wigginton’s exposure. While I’m hopeful for Blackmon, I’m acknowledging the risk there, and again, in my mind having too many options isn’t a bad deal.
You can hurt a team through negligence if you don’t take the opportunities for upgrades, even if there are decent players on the way. The Diamondbacks went out and acquired Lyle Overbay even though they also had Paul Goldschmidt knocking on the door. Overbay proved an invaluable bench bat down the stretch.
I just don’t get the argument of “what are we going to do with Player X when…” It makes no sense, as either the player isn’t good enough to be on the roster, making it a moot issue, or the player can be utilized effectively elsewhere, pushing a worse player out of the picture. Either way the team gets improved. The only real issue is whether Rolen or Cuddyer or whoever are actually upgrades over who we currently have at their positions. I say they both are.
So we're going to pay Cuddyer a heavy chunk of change to sit on the bench for a decent amount of games?
Again, that’s not making the most of your money. I’d have no problem with getting Cuddyer, trading Seth Smith to free up the OF slot, then inserting Cuddyer into the OF when Arenado is ready. But to even mention Cuddyer being on the bench is ludicrous. You don’t put $10 million (especially when you JUST signed him) on the bench when a prospect comes through the system. Just mentioning it makes my stomach gurgle.
Not sure Rolen’s going to be an upgrade at 3B over Stewart. He is definitely on the decline. I’d rather stick with Stewart at 3B. But just as a stopgap.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 2:16 PM MDT up reply actions
Also, I don't like Seth Smith as the 4th OF.
He has value being the strong half of a platoon. If we sign Cuddyer, promote Arenado, and demote Seth Smith to 4th OF/bench, we lose some of Seth’s trade value.
Cuddyer is way too expensive to be the weak half of a platoon as well.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 2:21 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't know if you intended it, but you use a clever switch of terms between your first and second paragraph
Smith has value being on the strong side of a platoon, Cuddyer is way too expensive to be a weak platoon player. Both players have value, that’s precisely my point. Expensive or not, I’d rather have players with value than players like Ty Wigginton or Ian Stewart, and I still don’t really care if they come off the bench or not, particularly if it’s only a temporary arrangement to make room for another player with value like Arenado presumably.
I agree with this overall
though I think I’d probably pursue other avenues first…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
So we're going to sign a FA to a hefty contract only to sit him on the bench by midseason?
No way. The bench was very bad for the Rockies in 2010, but you don’t sign a guy for $10m per to have him on the bench for any more than a couple of games a week!!!
Money can be spent better elsewhere, if that’s how you really are planning to use Cuddyer.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 2:43 PM MDT up reply actions
Again, I plan on Smith being a bench bat, but...
Cuddyer would take a load from the Helton/Giambi tandem too. We had Ty Wigginton start 17 games at 1B last season, I would think a player of Cuddyer’s caliber would at least double that number.
Giambi started far too infrequently.
And we already have Pacheco to start plenty of games at 1B.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 3:07 PM MDT up reply actions
Pacheco, who had a 77 OPS+ in 2011 for the Rockies
and 3 HR in 363 AB’s playing for Colorado Springs. You’d rather have him starting at first than a guy who was an All-Star last season and hit 20 HR playing half his games in Target Field? Are you wanting the Rockies to lose? I have some hope that Pacheco may prove to be a valuable bench asset, but he’s not the player you’re making him out to be, and he’s a huge downgrade from Cuddyer as a part time starter at first.
Pacheco, the kid who also hit very well in a pitching environment in the minor leagues.
and he ate up AA. And he looked pretty good in a SSS in the major leagues, flashing positive signs. 2010 in Colorado Springs was bad, but when you look at all of his other years, what can you make of it? Not very much, if anything at all.
Yes. I want the Rockies to lose.
Michael Cuddyer is not going to come to the Colorado Rockies to sit on the bench by midseason in his first year with the team. Period. Michael Cuddyer is going to come to the Colorado Rockies to start as an OF, or not come at all. In that case, Seth Smith needs to be traded while his value is still relatively high.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 3:20 PM MDT up reply actions
You keep on saying that I think Michael Cuddyer will sit on the bench
I keep on telling you that he won’t. Here we talk about him starting at 1B and you say I think he’ll be playing off the bench. I talk about him starting the season at 3B and you say I think he’ll play off the bench. I say he’ll push Smith to mostly bench in the outfield and you say I think Cuddyer will be coming from the bench. Stop it please. If he signs the contract we’re talking about, it will be in part because he’s considered so versatile, that he could start at multiple positions.
Pacheco had all of 21 games in Tulsa, much more of SSS than anywhere else. It’s the one thing in his record you can’t make much of, and yet you’re giving it the most weight. He wasn’t impressive as a 23 year old in Asheville, a bit better as a 24 year old in Modesto but still not a major prospect, and his 25 year old season was severely lacking, even with the SSS in the MLB. I’ll give you that his swing makes him better than the numbers show him to be, but because he lacks legit power, it’s not by enough to make him a major asset.
by Rox Girl on Oct 20, 2011 3:53 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
No, you keep bringing up the bench.
I’m just reiterating that.
I think he’ll get start at 1B 20 games next season, tops. You say Nolan Arenado is going to push his way through the system, bumping Cuddyer to OF, which I agreed with. The part I don’t agree with is “bumping Seth to the bench”, because he has decent starter value RIGHT NOW. Why would we kill it by sending him to the bench? Trade him before that even occurs. Trade him before you call up Arenado. Sure, Seth has value as a 4th OF but little more than a Blackmon/FA. If he signs that contract, it would be to play a little 1B, some 3B, and OF (I agree with you to that point). I was confused because you kept mentioning him (and even Seth Smith) coming off the bench for the team, which I vehemently disagree with.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 7:46 PM MDT up reply actions
The only reasons Cuddyer would start that few at 1B
would be that the team thinks that Arenado’s not ready, which means Cuddyer’s starting more at third, making this entire argument of ours moot, or that Smith has been traded, which I know is something you advocate. I’m not opposed to that, so long as the return merits it, but like I’ve been saying, I think that Smith has tremendous value off the bench. I really don’t think it tanks his trade value as much as you say, either. If he plays badly, in either role, that would tank his value.
I actually have it that we pay Cuddyer to have Seth Smith come off the bench for a decent amount of games
And for one season, I have no issues whatsoever with it not being as efficient a use of the money as it could be as long as the overall upgrade to the team is there, which it should be if he has a typical season for him. This scenario plays out frequently with good prospects, their very nature says they’ll push some higher paid player to the bench to make room. It becomes an issue if there wasn’t a longer term fit for a player like Cuddyer, but with Smith being an iffy keeper candidate at best, and Helton waning without an adequate replacement, this doesn’t seem to be the case.
Rolen’s on the decline certainly, but the worst season of his career in 2011 was still miles better than the year Stewart put up. Bad Rolen is a better player than bad Stewart, good Rolen is a better player than good Stewart. The only issue is whether 2012 will be a good Stewart/Bad Rolen season, but I wouldn’t count on it. Rolen’s been a lot more consistent throughout his career than Stewart has.
I've already expressed the problem with demoting Seth Smith to the bench.
If the longer-term fit for Cuddyer is at 1B, Cuddyer will be the Rockies primary first baseman in 2014. I’m going to assume Cuddyer gets a 3-year deal. In 2014, that’s the final year of the deal. He’ll also be 35 years old. In other words, not exactly the kind of signing I would consider healthy for the long term.
No way would Cuddyer sit on the bench for Seth. Even with Arenado flying through the system. Seth Smith as a bench OF is not a good idea because he definitely loses value on the trade market. Especially when he’s 28 years old. He can fetch something of decent value this offseason, but putting an almost-29 year old on the bench would drive down his price.
For me, I think Rolen’s going to start falling off. 2011 is certainly a huge warning sign. Can he bounce back? Maybe. But I wouldn’t take the risk. Especially for 2 months of $6.5 million. . .
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 2:39 PM MDT up reply actions
You aren't alone in the age-ism.
It’s why both Cuddyer and Rolen will be available to a team like the Rockies, whereas a player like Jose Reyes won’t be, and a player like David Wright shouldn’t be. Cuddyer will be 35 in the final year of that contract, which I’d say is just about perfect to get relatively consistent value from him. Top quality players taper in production through their early 30’s but typically don’t become too erratic until 35 unless there’s an injury. If his contract demands went to four or five seasons, I’d definitely want to pass, unless the contract was heavily front-loaded and he was giving a huge discount on the back end.
Rolen could be dropping off a cliff given his 2011. It makes him either a toxic asset, or a prime buying opportunity depending on how you look at it. Given a career that has seen very few blips like 2011 and many more seasons like 2010, it would be the kind of chance I’d expect GM’s to take. If the Rockies do get a Rolen or a David Wright, however, I think it probably precludes them thinking Arenado will contribute much in 2012. If they get a Cuddyer, it could go either way. If they stick with Stewart, I think it’s a clear tell that they think Nolan’s ready.
My point was that Cuddyer isn't necessarily a long-term solution anywhere.
One year of 1B is not a long-term solution. Pacheco fits the mold and could, COULD, make the transition when Helton retires. And I’m sure by then there’d be other options too.
That second part is why I think points #3 and #4 are contradictory in the Rockpile. You claim Arenado is ready and shouldn’t be wasted in the minor leagues, only to say that the team should acquire another third baseman in the next topic.
Is Rolen worth three times the money that Ian Stewart is worth? I am having a hard time seeing that, especially when you consider the gap in age. Saying Rolen has had a pretty consistent career is obviously true, but that was before 2011. That was before he was in his mid-30s. Just because his career has been consistent doesn’t mean it will continue to be consistent. I do think 2010 was the beginning of Rolen’s decline.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 3:14 PM MDT up reply actions
In 2011, according to FanGraphs, Rolen was still worth $6 million over replacement
Stewart was worth -$2.8 million. This means that Rolen was infinitely more valuable since there weren’t at bats wasted on a false promise that he’d be better than the next random player off the bench. Outside his very first cup of coffee, there hasn’t been a year that Rolen hasn’t had value. He’s had five seasons in the MVP class (at least six wins) and another four where he’s been All-Star caliber (four plus wins.) Ian Stewart’s best season to date (2010, 1.5 wins) is barely above Rolen’s worst (2011 1.3 WAR.) I really think I’m betting on the right horse here, age or not. I’m not saying that he’s without risk, there’s considerable risk there, which is why I think he’ll be available relatively cheap, but I think you downplay the risk with Stewart too much, as it’s at least as high, and the upside is actually less.
Like I said above, Pacheco’s not that player. He absolutely should not be seen as Helton’s replacement. He might be a decent 24 or 25th player given his versatility, but he has shown nothing to date to say that his ceiling is MLB starting caliber. Maybe he breaks out and proves otherwise in 2012 and we have a good situation on our hands of too much talent. That means the Rockies win. I have no problem with that, but we shouldn’t expect it given his lackluster results at the AAA and MLB level to date.
That good situation of too much talent is why I’m not contradicting myself, but I could see how someone with your philosophy would. Your statements indicate that you’d rather have cheap and bad players on the bench in the event of Nolan Arenado breaking through to the majors than expensive and good players. We’d both like cheap and good players on the bench, but that’s not likely to happen with what the Rockies currently have available. So I’d rather have an expensive and good bench, like Seth Smith or Scott Rolen, than a cheap and bad one like Ian Stewart or Ty Wigginton.
I’d rather not expect Jordan Pacheco to be a player he hasn’t so far, but I’ll still happily take it if it happens. Ditto Charlie Blackmon or Wilin Rosario or even Nolan Arenado. In the meantime, I’d rather the Rockies prepare like they weren’t going to break out, even if they think they’re ready.
Rolen is not that player he was when he was close to All-Star level.
so I’m not sure why you even throw those numbers out at us.
Ian Stewart had a case of Murphy’s Law in 2010. But it was also only 100 ABs. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he’ll bounce back to career levels. In that case, Scott Rolen, on his decline, is definitely not 3x more valuable than Stewart.
You fail to see my philosophy. Trade players when they still have medium-high value, before killing it by demoting a player to the bench. Seth Smith is a prime candidate for this. He should be packaged for an arm, a good arm. We have too much OF major-league ready depth right now. One of Blackmon/Smith/Wheeler HAVE to be traded this offseason, and if we’re planning on acquiring a guy to play OF, I think it’s gotta be Smith.
Expensive bench? Ugh. Pitching is a large need on this team. You trade for Scott Rolen’s contract and you lose more money on pitching. Cuddyer + Rolen = ~$16 million for next season, which would just about kill the financial flexibility. Not much pitching will be coming our way if that happens. Not ideal, I believe that money can be spent better elsewhere.
I’m not sure what you’re talking about. I don’t expect Pacheco to be All-Star caliber, but I do expect .300/.360/.400 with a ton of line drives. Not too worried about 1B with Pacheco/Helton/Giambi.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 8:02 PM MDT up reply actions
A lot I disagree with here.
Rolen was at that All-Star level in 2010. It’s not that far off, and similar to Helton, because of the borderline HOF type that he is, he’s not likely to fade out as quickly or as cleanly as you seem to think. He’s likely to have at least one more solid season before he’s done.
The 3x salary number I let slide the first time you brought it up, but it’s a poor rounding error, it’s going to be a lot closer to 2x after Stewart’s arbitration. For this reason, I still think the team’s supposed confidence may be just to keep his trade value from tanking before the non-tender deadline. At any rate, given their careers to date, yes I think Rolen will be close to worth 3x as much as Stewart in 2011, despite only being paid twice as much.
I understand your philosophy, I just don’t think it’s always in the best interest of the team. Sometimes players will have more value in their roles on the field than they will in trade, and that’s even true of marginal starters like Smith. He’s more valuable to the Rockies contributing, either as a part or full time player (he’d be a bit more than a typical bench player.) Both Wheeler and Blackmon still have options remaining, neither has proven themselves MLB capable yet. There’s no need rushing the gun here as far as I can tell.
Expensive bench: I’ve already gone over this, if you have a dirt cheap infield with guys like Arenado and Rosario making the minimum, I don’t see why not. It only results that way IF Arenado is ready and valuable, and I really don’t get why you’re arguing against having valuable players around, even if they only get 450 AB’s instead of 600. I’d much rather have those AB’s go to a Smith level of player than a Stewart/Wigginton.
I never said I wanted the Rockies to go after both Rolen and Cuddyer, it’s pretty clearly an either/or situation there. I’d rather have Cuddyer, but Rolen would be a cheaper stopgap. The FA pitching market this winter is pretty terrible or too expensive with the possible exception of Edwin Jackson. The trade market looks to be in a similar boat. I’m not convinced there’s a winner out there for the amount of talent it would cost to get the pitcher back. Tampa Bay’s only good to deal with when they’re desperate to unload, we’d be on the short end trading for Niemann or Davis. Maybe Florida would be reasonable. One of my major points is that the Rockies will get a lot more bang for their buck trading for or spending on offense.
You said you think Pacheco could replace Helton, and you implied you’d rather have his production (which won’t be as high as you’re expecting, btw, .280/.330/.370 seems to be about his peak,) than Cuddyer’s at the position going forward. I think that’s a ludicrous assertion. Cuddyer or not, the Rockies have to get a better long term Helton replacement than Pacheco.
That's why I kept putting Magadan as a comparison and that's a generous one.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
"You can hurt a team through negligence if you don’t take the opportunities for upgrades"
this sort of sums up…well…a lot.
I'm not a Cuddyer believer, but I'm more than willing to be proved wrong.
I just think that pitching is where Colorado needs to be spending their money.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Oct 20, 2011 10:45 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm going to be a little contrarian here.
I would wish the Rox move on from Stewart. However if DOD is determined to keep him on the team I say he should start taking reps again at 2b. Let Pacheco prove him self at 3b this year. His D may be no better than Wiggy’s, but his bat should be better and I think more consistant. Pacheco may not have the power some want at third; I’m not worried about that for one season. If he can prove out to a Todd type bat as far as contact goes; I’d be content. If Stewart rebounds at all he may be an improvement on our motley of 2b. If not then Hasta baby. Go look up Wade Boggs and hope you catch on elsewhere.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
I could go for that
As in, “Stew, we’ve got 6 candidates for the 2B job. You’re one of them. See if you can win it. If not, good-bye. And no whining.”
Long term I want Pacheco primed for 1b; but he needs AB's now if he really is going to be an asset.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
I don't hate that idea.
We wouldn’t have a lot of power out of that 1B position, but it could definitely work.
Personally, that’s what I’d do with Pacheco. Have him as utility for two years (or 3 years) until ToddFather retires, slowly giving Pacheco more and more time at 1B as time goes on. Then when Helton retires, we have a 1B.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 1:08 PM MDT up reply actions
Pacheco shouldn't focus on one position like that.
We have a third baseman. His name is Nolan Arenado. Let Pacheco be the utility, because that’s (probably) all he’s ever going to be.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 1:07 PM MDT up reply actions
Pacheco's biggest problems defensively is he doesn't stay anywhere long enough.
I would only want him at 3b for 2012. After I think his future is at 1b and pinch hitter. I’d want him to get all the MLB AB’s possible for 2012 to hone his hitting at the MLB level. After that he can be our Dave Magadan. I think that’s the highest upside move for him short term. If we still have Wiggy he can be super utility as that is what he was brought here to be. Not the starter he was used as 2011. After 2012 Wiggy is gone regardless and then Pacheco can be super utility.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
Hm. Lukewarm on this.
It could work fine, but it’s working backwards. I’d rather keep Pacheco as super utility, get rid of Wigginton (please O’Dowd? I don’t care if it’s for free soda in the clubhouse, just get him out) and have a stopgap at 3B.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 1:31 PM MDT up reply actions
Oh I'd like Wiggy gone too.
I just don’t think it’s going to happen. I’d rather Pacheco get the AB’s than Wiggy for next year and that’s how I’d do it. I keep trotting out Pacheco to 3b to keep Wiggy from getting AB’s there. It gives Pacheco the exposure he will need to PH in the division long term. I think Pacheco’s D will keep him from being a full time player long term. I’m afraid if Pacheco does not get a lot of MLB at bats in 2012 he won’t fully develope offensively. Hence my Dave Magadan comparison.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
Stew's too big to be a 2nd baseman.
The guy is a giant. And we’ve tried him out at 2nd base in the past and it failed. And Ian’s only gotten bigger since then.
I like the creativity, I just don’t see it happening.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 2:22 PM MDT up reply actions
For that matter that guy at short is too big too.
( sorry RIRF couldn’t resist the comeback.)
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
Yeah
But the guy at short can do this
I was pretty disgusted after the Rockies season, but the rapid demise of the I-95 teams have helped with that.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2011 5:58 PM MDT up reply actions
I just don't understand
why you would want to acquire somebody like Rolen ($6.5 million) when you think Arenado is going to be ready by June. If the Rockies get Rolen, play him for 2 months, then bench him, that’s not the best way to spend $6.5 million.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 1:03 PM MDT up reply actions
not to mention he's 36 and was really, really bad in 2011
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
be happy, because 2012 is coming.
Ian Stewart is JUST a stopgap for Nolan Arenado.
And a one year stopgap at that.
I’m definitely with Jeff on this argument.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 1:06 PM MDT up reply actions
3B Wars is fun.
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
be happy, because 2012 is coming.
More civil, at any rate.
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Oct 20, 2011 1:49 PM MDT up reply actions
It kind of makes me anxious for 2B wars
the only problem being that all the combatants strongly resemble the Grand Duchy of Fenwick…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Oct 20, 2011 2:16 PM MDT up reply actions
I like the idea of a less obviously available candidate like Rolen short term.
I hear Scott Hatteberg is planning a comeback…
What if the Hokey Pokey IS what it's all about?
by Fiftytwoeighty on Oct 20, 2011 10:16 AM MDT reply actions
Sorta Off Topic:
in my Diamond Mind Sim League, I recently just traded Combined:
Ian Stewart
Jonathan Garcia
Robbie Aviles
2012 LAA 3rd round pick
2012 LAA 5th round pick
For
Mark Reynolds
Brett Myers
Ben Francisco
FLA 8th round pick
KC 8th round pick
Bottom line being, as big of an Ian Stewart fan as I am, I’m not convinced he bounces back. If Stewart was the LH version of Mark Reynolds I think we would all be happy, and that is what we all thought we were getting, however he’s not, and its time to move on I think.
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
I'm getting really sick of the groupthink among the staff on this site
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 20, 2011 10:50 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree with this comment.
Or any comment and every comment.
I thought 2011 sucked pretty bad. I have nothing to add to that.
by prettyinpurple on Oct 20, 2011 11:21 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd just because
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
by Roxman4ever on Oct 20, 2011 12:33 PM MDT up reply actions
Pip Said it
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
fight fight fight fight fight!
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
be happy, because 2012 is coming.
*flips light switch on and off repeatedly*
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
/it is a new beginning, right?
by The Lodo Magic Man on Oct 20, 2011 11:48 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Catcher war = Playoff birth
It’s never not worked
I was pretty disgusted after the Rockies season, but the rapid demise of the I-95 teams have helped with that.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2011 11:48 AM MDT up reply actions
Every year
CDI lost his job to Yorvit, we went to the postseason. When CDI loses his job to Olivo or Rosario, so far no postseason.
so trade CDI (see below -- Rays badly need a catcher)
& bring back “playoff charm” Yorvit to mentor Rosario & Pacheco.
Look what Yorvit did for the Rangers this year,
I was mostly joking
but CDI should be traded under several different sets of likely scenarios. And if Tampa Bay somehow loses its brains, we should trade him along with mostly whoever else they want and everyone in the city of Denver that even looks remotely like CDI.
Can somebody photoshop Tebow into a CDI lookalike?
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Oct 20, 2011 1:00 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
the only reason Rosario opens up his front hip so much
is because Iannetta told him to do that. What a saboteur.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Are you saying Iannetta framed Pacheco?
Because I’ve heard that’s unlikely…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Oct 20, 2011 1:00 PM MDT up reply actions
we all know iannetta can't frame for crap...
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
be happy, because 2012 is coming.
I think you meant Rosario instead of Pacheco
otherwise, lol
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
one of those guys with lots of vowels...
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Oct 20, 2011 1:20 PM MDT up reply actions
Lol.
Wolf is one funny guy.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 1:27 PM MDT up reply actions
I overheard
some criticism of Ron Washington for NOT using Yorvit as a PH last night. Didn’t see the game, but is this true? I love it.
Sad but true.
Very reminiscent of some of the Tracetegery we’ve been witness to.
Is it 2012 yet?
by DAWNMARIE01 on Oct 20, 2011 12:12 PM MDT up reply actions
I knew in my heart when I wrote my Wednesday Rockpile that Rox Girl couldn't resist expressing an opposing opinion the next day.
We seem to have diverging opinions pretty often now, which is definitely something I’m learning a lot from.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jeff Aberle on Oct 20, 2011 10:47 PM MDT up reply actions
I wonder if David Price is available (not that I really think he is, but the Rays' situation forces them to do unusual things)
and what a package for him would look like from us..
I’d start with Rosario, Wheeler and Smith…aka the typical names mentioned.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
little early to be hitting the booze, don't you think?
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
be happy, because 2012 is coming.
by papality on Oct 20, 2011 11:35 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
nah man,
he’s in line for a big raise via arbitration. Maybe not this year but next, they’ll probably need to deal him.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
projects to around $5 mil this year
and then probably 7-8 next year, 12-13 third time, 15-20 open market.
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
be happy, because 2012 is coming.
yea, there's probably zero chance
a suitable package could be drawn up that neither includes Arenado/Pom, or just completely strip our farm system (particularly if those two aren’t included)…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Wow.
Not sure about that man. That’s a huge bundle of talent for one player.
There are VERY few players in MLB that I trade 2/4 of those players for. None I’d trade all 4 of them for though….
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 1:10 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't think any team would really do that trade either
but the package is reasonable vis a vis what we received for Ubaldo when considering that Price has 3 years until he’s an FA, is lefty, and is better than Ubaldo.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
The Rays are desperate for a catcher
Their fans on DraysBay covet Ianetta. (Rosario is probably too much of a risk defensively for a team that depends on its pitching for success.)
They have lots of pitching. It probably won’t be Price, who along with Longoria is sort of their team leader, but there are many other options.
But they can't pitch.
Choices are Niemann (no thanks), Davis (same), Cobb (pretty good prospect), Torres (same). Although they’ve entertained offers for Shields in the past, they really can’t deal him after his “Superman season” without losing their 10,000 or so loyal fans. Hellickson and Moore are off limits.
If we’re stockpiling young starting pitching prospects (and thus Ubaldo for 3 prospect), what about Ianetta for Cobb & Torres?
I would love to get either Niemann or Davis
I think either one can be better then 2009/2010 Hammel, who was a pretty good pitcher in his own right.
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
i wouldn't touch davis with a 20 foot pole
i’d be fine with niemann if we got him cheap
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
be happy, because 2012 is coming.
...check it out
yeah, y’all, come on…here we go again.
i'll counter with
what is right with davis?
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
be happy, because 2012 is coming.
He's not Esmil Rogers
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
he of the identical 4.85 SIERA
he also of the franchise lead in K/BB, and the two seasons before with SIERAs of 3.90 and 3.79?
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
be happy, because 2012 is coming.
4.81 SIERA vs 4.83
not selling me
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
be happy, because 2012 is coming.
Absolutely.
NIEMANNNN. That’s the one pitcher I want this winter.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 1:12 PM MDT up reply actions
well, the whole point
is that regardless of Price’s status on the team, he’s in line to get a hefty raise in arbitration which may make the Rays unable to keep him – though (at least for 2012), I’m sure they free up money elsewhere to retain him – if not work out some doable contract.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Rosario is a risk defensively?
Hm. I don’t think so, to be honest. Very strong throwing arm and he’ll get better with the blocking. Not worried about that aspect of his game.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 1:11 PM MDT up reply actions
Not sure Price would be available just yet.
But not a bad idea at all.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 1:09 PM MDT up reply actions
Keith Law
perhaps now without Matzek to bang on, has moved to Arenado’s defense. 2nd week in a row:
Jeff (Denver) [via mobile]
Have you had a chance to see Arenado this AFL? Numbers don’t mean much, but he’s among the youngest there and is playing pretty well, no?
Klaw (1:32 PM)
Can hit. I don’t think he’ll ever be average at third but might have enough instincts to fake it and stay at the position. Below-average defenders at the hot corner are the flavor of the year out here, with him, Marte, Ryan Wheeler, Lake.
I'm sure he'll have to get back to Matzek fairly soon.
If Arenado is at all successful at third for the Rockies, Law will start to ignore him.
Not to get all personal here
but Keith Law is perhaps one of the biggest arrogant pricks I have had the displeasure of reading.
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
So that's two words spent on Arenado's offense and 43 on his defense
Yeah, that seems like an appropriate ratio when it comes to his game.
I was pretty disgusted after the Rockies season, but the rapid demise of the I-95 teams have helped with that.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2011 12:10 PM MDT up reply actions
To be fair
I think Law is conceding that Arenado has a big league bat. I agree that his extended banging on the defense seems overly negative, but that’s Law.
Heaven for bid if he actually elaborated on something good Arenado does
I was pretty disgusted after the Rockies season, but the rapid demise of the I-95 teams have helped with that.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2011 12:15 PM MDT up reply actions
Frankly
his elaborations are almost always towards the negative. His simple statement “he can hit” is really a lot from him. Otherwise, that would be filled with qualifiers. His presentation style is certainly grating, but I’ve read enough of him to learn his tricks. Here, he’s saying Arenado is a no-doubt MLB bat, and the only issue is defense. But he certainly is hung up on the D.
Im surprised he included R. Wheeler's name..
That kid was making every play imaginable, while standing on his head, and ordering nachos, at all the games I saw. But then, an expert like Law, has probably seen him more times than me.
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
-- odowd apologist --
by Charlie77 on Oct 20, 2011 1:24 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Byrnes to become the Padres new GM
I was pretty disgusted after the Rockies season, but the rapid demise of the I-95 teams have helped with that.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2011 2:00 PM MDT reply actions
Cubs are building a Super Team Front Office™
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
RedSox 2.0?
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Part of me is worried.
like, can it even still be considered ‘baseball’ if the Cubs represent a consistent, respectable threat to win it all?
I submit that it cannot.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
That's Josh Byrnes right?
So the Diamondbacks have swapped GMs in the past 2 years?
Arenado gets a hit in his first at bat of the day, Joe Gardner on the mound.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
omg, Arenado drew a walk!
Also, Gardner threw a good amount of strikes – though he walked 2.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Where would we be today IF
Joe Crede would’ve shown up to play for us?
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
Where are we today
that we are reduced to asking that question?
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Oct 20, 2011 2:56 PM MDT up reply actions
2011!
Did he play anywhere this year to see how he did?
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
same position as we are right now.
Watching the playoffs from home.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 3:05 PM MDT up reply actions
so he would've been no help to us whatsoever?
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
Some help? Maybe
enough help to make up the gap between 4th place and where the Cards ended up?
Nope, he’s still Joe Creede…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Oct 20, 2011 3:12 PM MDT up reply actions
and its still 2011 according to the calander
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
yeah, I'm sure looking forward to Spring Training....how about you?
In all things, it is better to hope than despair.
Oh yea. I was ready the second our season ended
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
Joe Crede isn't good anymore, dude
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 20, 2011 3:21 PM MDT up reply actions
I was just wondering if he would've played. Would he have done better than
Stewart? Yes.
Wiggy? Maybe
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
Amazin' Ave has a good article about their 1st year hitting coach change.
Some one should compare Lansford to it.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
OT: Holly, did your feel the earthquake in SF?
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Good evening!
No. In fact, I just found out about it. We were driving around up in the Marin Headlands.
you know who's a guy I may kick the tires on acquiring?
Edinson Volquez. Not sure if he’s available (and it would make sense if he wasn’t), but he may be given his erraticness and the Reds seem to have a somewhat deep rotation. He also seemed to get better regarding walks as the year went on and his fastball velocity is the same as it ever was.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
JFK's Quote of the Day:
"It’s not what you did last year. It’s what you’re going to do this year. That’s more important." ~Albert Pujols
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
Mike Pagliarulo, eh?
Well, there’s a name I haven’t heard in a while. Regardless of what the stats say, I’m not sure it’s really an apt comparison.
I was a Yankee fan back when Pags came along. Nice player, solid guy. But no one looked at him as anything other than that, from day one. And that’s the big difference — Stewart still has the physical tools, offensively and defensively, to make you think “Damn, this guy could be all-everything if he would put it together”. And that’s why you keep him hanging around, and that’s why he’s so damn frustrating.
The fact that his offensive production is roughly similar to a journeyman like Pags is just an indication of how disappointing he’s been, not that they’re roughly similar players. Those numbers came with Pags playing up to every ounce of his potential and Stewie playing down to a level far below his potential.
If Stewie flames out once and for all, it will be an almost criminal waste of natural ability. We’ve already seen that with Atkins, it would be a shame to see history repeat.
I’m ready to take one more, fresh look at him. If he can somehow, someway really pull it together and live up to his skill set — we won’t have to worry whether Nelson Arenado is ready or not. But he’s gotta understand that this is last call.
Very well said, I can't really argue with any of your points.
I agree that Stewart could (should?) be so much more than the player that he’s become. 2011 was probably his last call in my book, and since 3B was such a big part of the Rockies overall disappointment, it’s probably why I’m so harsh. I understand the patience of others, but I think I’ve already moved on.
Go Rangers!
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Go N.L.!!!
I was pretty disgusted after the Rockies season, but the rapid demise of the I-95 teams have helped with that.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2011 6:02 PM MDT up reply actions
Sorry man, my dislike of the Cardinals is too great
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
I just can't get over it. Chris Carpenter
is the evil twin of Hoyt from “True Blood”
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Yikes Kinsler was hit on the shoulder with a foul ball at 3rd
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Rockies increase ticket prices for the first time in four years
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_19159379
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
$41 for club level infield seats!!!!
Damn that’s a good deal!!!
I was pretty disgusted after the Rockies season, but the rapid demise of the I-95 teams have helped with that.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2011 7:24 PM MDT up reply actions
Double header on Memorial Day?
why?
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
Because they can? I don't know....
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Nice play Elvis!
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Cards lead 1-0 now
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Oh this is getting exciting now!
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
Motte is being like our former closer.
Giving it up.
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
Tie game!
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Exciting game
though I can’t cheer for Texas. (Worst thing about Colorado: Texans.)
"Are they called the Rockies because they rock?" - 7 y.o.
yeah but if the Rangers win we get 5 games for sure :)
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
I know.
So I’m pretty much happy with whatever happens, as long as there’s good baseball involved.
"Are they called the Rockies because they rock?" - 7 y.o.
Oh look...Another pitching change.
And I thought basketball took forever to finish.
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
They keep talking about that throw
and that Albert needs to be a better cut off but Jay needs to hit the cut off rather than throw it 8 feet off line like he did
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
Rangers leading! 2-1
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
BANNED! LOL
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
It's amazing
Albert Pujol’s mistake may have costs the Cards the game. Letting Andrus get to second there may prove deadly.
I was pretty disgusted after the Rockies season, but the rapid demise of the I-95 teams have helped with that.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 20, 2011 9:00 PM MDT up reply actions
DFA HIM!
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
Hey look
fundamental baseball, lift it to the OF with <2 outs and a runner on third, TWICE
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
something the 2011 Rockies couldn't do.
Hope you guys are paying attention!
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
I kept assuming the runner on third would be out at home on a contact play.
"Are they called the Rockies because they rock?" - 7 y.o.
I do not understand this concept :)
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
We got ourselves a series!
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
I never thought
it would be anything less. This is going to be a lot of fun to watch.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
I was wondering a bit after yesterday's game.
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
really?
A 3-2 game like that was great to see and tonight’s game made it that much better. Especially considering how both teams had terrible starting pitching in their respective LCS.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
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