Friday Rockpile: Why It's Such A Bummer That Ian Stewart Is Awful

Brer Wolf/Bear/Fox/PedoBear did not so much.

if you know who to ask

At Yankee Stadium, you can pay $150 for a ticket here.

in fact, it cools me quite a bit on the idea of even acquiring him….

But I would be okay with 3/30 or 4/40, something like that. He makes for a better version of Rox Girl’s Cuddyer Plan™, doesn’t block Arenado, and becomes Helton’s immediate successor.

A really well hit foul ball to left can land on the 6th green. Which is more than I can say for virtually any of my shots on that hole…

Points in his favor:

Ridiculously good plate coverage
very good strikeout rates
god-like strike zone awareness (he never strikes out looking. Ever)
age
he adjusts quickly to higher levels
workout demon

The organization is banking a lot in his development, and I think they are 100% right in doing so. He’s going to be the third centerpiece of this organization when Helton retires.

Those K numbers with his power potential at a premium position make him a very good prospect.

Here’s the video I shot of Arenado this May.

Pay close attention to how reacts as each pitch is thrown. He intentionally swings to make contact, he shows impeccable pitch recognition, and he protects the strike zone. Great bat control and strike zone awareness.

Ridiculously good plate coverage
very good strikeout rates
god-like strike zone awareness (he never strikes out looking. Ever)
age
he adjusts quickly to higher levels
workout demon

He’s going to be able to give you better analysis than I can here as he was the first one on the Arenado train and has seen him in person whereas I’ve only combed over videos, but I’ll give you my $0.02 anyway.

From what I’ve looked at, I can make two very true statements about what makes Arenado’s game so drool worthy….

1)

“He’s VERY talented.”

 There’s ability there you can’t teach, and he has tools that will make MLB pitchers cringe.

2)

"He’s a true “hitter”."

What I mean by this is that he goes to the plate with a plan, knows how to exucute it, can force the pitcher to cave and give him his pitch, and make contact (probably solid contact too) whether it’s for power or not. (With Arenado Contact >>>>> Power – and that’s a good thing as contact hitters can still develop power later)

As you advance towards MLB, you need both of these traits to be an above average player. (Jonathan Herrera for instance would be a good example of a guy who could really excell at statement #2 if he just had more of statement #1.) However, you can get by if you only posses statement #1 at lower levels, and when you have off the charts talent of Ian Stewart, you can thrive there, hence the .959 OPS at Casper and the .992 OPS at Ashville.

But all minor league stats are not created the same. Stewart got his numbers because he was a talented monster who could bash balls to the moon. He’s a guy who’s ceiling was MLB MVP if he adjusted and became a “true hitter”, and whose floor was total flameout if he didn’t. Arenado on the other hand doesn’t quite have the same level of freakish talent that Stewart does (and that’s not a knock because almost nobody does), but he posses more of statement #2 in his pinky than Stewart does in his entire body, and when you get to the big show, you only get the most out of your talent if you learn how to become a hitter instead of a basher. Stewart hasn’t done that yet and the last few grains of sand are are falling from the hour glass.

Kowing this about these players, take a look at what happens are they advance towards higher levels. Stewart’s OPS drops from .992 at Ashville, to .849 at Modesto, to .803 at Tulsa, and it of course has gotten worse in MLB as the best pitchers on the planet have made the proper adjustment and now know what to do with this one trick pony. Notice Stewart’s K rate as well. He never addressed it in the minors when it was around 20% and now he’s got a 28% K rate in the majors. That’s a big reason he’s an all or nothing hitter.

If you look at Arenado, the story is not the same (although I admit we don’t know how it’s going to end yet). If anything, he’s gotten stronger as he’s progressed through the system, and shows no signs of stopping anytime soon. I believe the reason for this is statement #2.

You raise a good point in that their numbers look similar, but I’m pretty confident that they arrived at those destinations by taking different paths, and the one Arenado took is going to make him stronger when it really counts.

Stewart was #4 in overall Baseball Rankings, which illuminates a flaw in their system as much as anything. Stewart mauled Low-A pitching in an extreme hitter’s park but hadn’t shown the ability (or need) to adjust and hit good pitches. That is a huge different between Stewart and Arenado. While Stewart has tremendous strength, Arenado has hitting approach ability that suggests those hurdles between levels are not too high for him. At all three levels so far, he has struggled initially, adjusted, then took off

Very risky.

I was there when they “unveiled” it and my first thought was “you have to be kidding me”.
The most annoying part is that THEY ACTUALLY RAISED A REAL FLAG ON THE NIGHT THEY WON THE PENNANT in the actual flag park. Then at some point in the offseason must have decided the stupid thing on the scoreboard would be better and took it down.

On the “how to honor” guys with retired numbers though, a number on the outfield wall is plenty classy. But I’d also like to see a statue (either the player himself or a number or a baseball with a number on it would do) in the area outside the park in front of the main entrance where “the player” statue is now. The existing statue has always seemed like a placeholder to me until the club could develop its own history.