Tuesday Rockpile: The Death of Rocktober
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 4, 2011 8:00 AM MDT
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Rocktober is the gift that keeps on giving. When the Colorado Rockies won 21 of 22 games in 2007 to complete a miraculous National League Pennant, the inexplicable nature of the time led to magical conclusions. A team that so many didn't believe had the talent to do the impressive...did the impossible. Rocktober wasn't just a streak. It was an identity, a common feeling between fans, players and even opponents. It embodied so much of what the organization and its fans wanted to be, the Rockies even pursued trademarking "Rocktober."
That identity still echoed for years. The Rockies have an annual September surge, we were told. Online publications from Fangraphs to Bleacher Report scream in early September nearly every year: "Don't Count Out the Rockies." The optimism borne from Rocktober 2007 is in our fanhood DNA, and more than any other fans in baseball, optimism for a late run resides in Colorado.
As Jason Hammel said twelve months ago:
"It's Denver, it's Colorado, it's the Rockies in September. It's ridiculous."
And now, it is officially dead. The magic is gone.
Tampa Bay and St. Louis have completed impossible comebacks of their own this season, helped by two historic collapses from the Red Sox and Braves. There exists something called "Raytober"...and perhaps "Snaketober." Moreover, this second half September magical swagger the Rockies had? Totally kaput. The defibrillator used in 2010 failed, and likely a year after Rocktober officially died, we can pronounce it dead. The rest of the league has moved on. Now it is our turn. 
Since that magical 2007, the Rockies are 51-53 in September. They are just 20-36 over their final 14 games from 2008-2011, including 4-24 the last two years. Even calling Colorado a "second half team" has lost accuracy. Over the past four seasons, Colorado is 144-141 (.505) in the second half - better, but not appreciably so, than their overall record (322-326, .497). Fizzle.
Colorado's 2007 team will always remain a story to tell our grandchildren, but we are long removed from that time. Kids who were in middle school in the beginning of the 2007 season are now in college. No pitchers from that roster remain in the organization. Todd Helton, a 2007 rookie Troy Tulowitzki and lightly used Chris Iannetta and Seth Smith are the only bats that will most likely be back in 2012. What once seemed like a regular occurrence now appears to be the ephemeral one year wonder our brains told us it was all along.
The irrational optimism we harbor will never die, even if Rocktober is gone. Once we taste that sweet manifestation of hope, our hearts will beat out that dream vociferously each autumn. There is no shame in that. Unfortunately, belief does not beget existence. With the spectacular late season collapses in Denver, expecting late season heroics is based on blind hope on the same plane as fans of the Pirates, Indians or Nationals. The Rockies must search for a new identity, because as was often penned in 2007, these are no longer your older brother's Rockies.
The Catching Situation
Rockies' catching dilemma a major offseason puzzle - The Denver Post In the third of a five part series by the Denver Post, Jim Armstrong tries his best to paint a picture of Chris Iannetta as a failed project:
"Is Iannetta the solution behind the plate? More and more, the answer appears to be no for the long term...With Iannetta, the Rockies have reached a "he is what he is" mode. That became clear when he moved to the eight hole in the lineup this past season....
The problem with Armstrong's argument is the support he seeks to compliment his point in the article is non-existent. Dan O'Dowd is quoted clearly saying Iannetta is the starter in 2011, with Wilin Rosario either as a backup or in AAA. Doesn't sound much like a "major offseason puzzle" or a "dilemma" to me.
Armstrong expresses disappointment in Iannetta, though the article is joined with a graphic that shows the Rockies' catchers were above average in every category. Where in the lineup the manager played said player is irrelevant. Quipped O'Dowd: "That (the catching position) is not our problem."
Then, there's the recycled "he don't have Torrealba fire" argument, just under the stock photo of an irate Iannetta, who appears ready to castrate umpire Corey Blaser. It is almost as if the Denver Post editors are trying to muffle Armstrong's off-kilter claims.
Eventually, Colorado is very likely to make Rosario their full-time catcher. He has All-Star upside, while Iannetta has passed that potential by. The only scenario to dictate otherwise is if Rosario was dealt in a package for an elite bat/arm. But what set up as an interesting decision this offseason has actually fizzled. O'Dowd has been adament that Iannetta will be the starting catcher.
Links
Dick Monfort fields readers' questions for Denver Post "Fan Mail" | On the Rox — Colorado Rockies news — Denver Post The Rockies owner has clearly made a concerted effort to be more open with the fans this season, a welcome sign given the organization's downturn. There was that conference call two months ago yesterday as well. Make sure you submit your questions.
Projections Update: Rangers Reclaim Lead - Beyond the Box Score A very cool series is running at Beyond the Boxscore, with a linear graph of World Series odds for all eight teams being updated by day.
Baseball America - Field Of Dreams: Not long after he suffered a broken neck, righthander Juan Nicasio had a dream (subscription required)
Tulowitzki tabbed as Aaron nominee for big year | ColoradoRockies.com: News No surprise here.
Baseball Prospectus | On the Beat: The Next Managers "Jim Tracy has to go." "Oh yeah, who would be better that is available?" If you've found yourself in this argument, here is a list of ten potential managers still available, as compiled by Baseball Prospectus' John Perotto.
Grand Junction going pro? - The Denver Post There has been buzz around Grand Junction stealing the Ghosts for years, and it only picked up when the Monforts bought the Ghosts. Casper's mayor and city planner apparently aren't having their calls to the Rockies returned. I'd say the momentum for a shift to Grand Junction is silently deafening.
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How about Carlos Zambrano?
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Oct 4, 2011 8:35 AM MDT up reply actions
The kids won’t be so hard
In my dreams we’re still screaming
Running through the yard
And all the walls that they built in the 70s finally fall
And all of the houses they built in the 70s finally fall
It meant nothing at all
It meant nothing at all
It meant nothing
Sometimes I can’t believe it
I’m moving past the feeling
Sometimes I can’t believe it
I’m moving past the feeling into the night
—“The Suburbs”, by The Arcade Fire
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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Thanks, ATF, for reposting the link to the conference call play-by-play.
It was interesting to read through it again. It seems to backup CDI at C with Rosario coming up.
There was a bit of criticism of Tulo and Cargo, but both of them seemed to finish strong when they weren’t injured.
Most importantly, I was reminded that the call seemed to continue to emphasize that Seth Smith is not in the long-range plans of the club. In some ways, it almost makes me think that their first choice would be to deal him rather than platoon him. Now, if only there was a team that could offer us a decent 3B.
I've been meaning to compile it in a saved nonFP post
And yes, despite a pretty strong year overall, they do seem significantly more sour on Smith than a year ago after his poor year
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 4, 2011 8:40 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
It's a good time to sell high
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 8:42 AM MDT up reply actions
What value are we honestly expecting to receive in trade? A couple of relievers, maybe?
He has to be part of a package, or not at all.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
That's what I am wondering too
I wish I was confident that Smith has significant trade value, but I’m just not. I am inclined to think that he has more value as a 4th OF and excellent pinch-hitter than the return he would bring in a trade – but I could be wrong about that.
Of course putting Smith back in the role he’s had the most success with – that of a late-inning PH – throws a wrench into Season #4 of the O’Dowd-Giambi bromance.
by Northsider1964 on Oct 4, 2011 8:47 AM MDT up reply actions
I’ve been leaning this direction as well. He has more value to us as a 4th OF and late inning bat.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
I think if you package him up
he still has value. The minute we make him a bench-player is the minute that any value he does have is lost. He was still 32nd in the Majors in wRC+ for OF with over 400 PAs. This makes him an offensive upgrade in most outfields. He has value. He just doesn’t have value for us because we need more power than what he brings to the plate.
It’s a difficult move to make though. What teams would be willing to part with a 2B or 3B player with upside in exchange for a platoon OF and a couple of prospects? (Aside from my dream Atlanta scenario)
St. Louis, maybe? Freese for Smith + an arm?
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Anyone looking for a salary dump.
For instance, San Diego. They’ve got Orlando Hudson making $5.5 million next year. Smith, in Arb, is going to make less.
If they move Hudson, they can get prospects, cost-savings, and an upgrade in the outfield over anyone they have out there. There’s also an upgrade in the lineup over Hudson. There’s a downgrade from Hudson to a prospect or another player, but it’s negligible.
Hudson is on a team option after next year. They aren’t going to compete until then at the earliest. It’s a good move for them.
Conceivably, this same scenario could work in our favor for Headley if we offered the right package for them.
Conceivably, this
I just have trouble seeing SD trade for a guy entering arbitration. I’d think they would want someone younger. Flipping offensive players after playing at Petco rarely works.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
It's an example though.
One that I think could apply to many teams, not just SD. They’re not really trading for Smith. They’re trading for the prospects. Smith is just added value that allows them to pull off the trade without fielding a AAA team while saving money.
The trick is to make this situation work to our advantage. That’s where the right prospects come in.
But he gives us a piece in the trade that is MLB-ready.
That’s a nice piece to have in a package that also includes top prospects.
That's still more than you would have gotten last season
I think he more of a prettier piece in a package but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 9:12 AM MDT up reply actions
He definitely rebounded from a miserable 2010,
but I guess they were hoping for a season that was better than 2009. Instead, they got a mid-range bat with a comedy of errors in the field. It’s really a pretty big failure.
He's an above average bat
Not elite but above average. If an AL team want’s to stick him at DH some of the time, his value goes up.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 9:13 AM MDT up reply actions
I don't know if he has the pure power a lot of AL teams want at DH.
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Oct 4, 2011 9:16 AM MDT up reply actions
Only three DH's had 20 or more HR's last season (and that's if you count Willingham who played nearly 70% of his games in the outfield anyway)
Smith’s 15 HR’s last year would play nice. Nothing outstanding, but he fills a need for someone.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 9:24 AM MDT up reply actions
Of the 265 major league hitters last year who had at least 300 PA's
Smith ranked 85th with 115 wRC+. That’s good for the 68th percentile. I’d say “not elite but above average” bat is a more accurate description than mid-range.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 9:31 AM MDT up reply actions
Even that still places him at the 61st percentile
You are underselling his bat if you want to slap the “mid range” label on it. He’s about as shiney as mid range gets.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 9:41 AM MDT up reply actions
I'm the one saying that he has value in the above thread.
But he’s not a top-third bat. He’s close. But he’s not there.
I wouldn't call it the "Death of Rocktober" as much as I would call it the " Hibernation of the September surge"
Rocktober isn’t going anywhere as long as the Rockies can get back into the playoffs one of these years. What can go away though is the avenue we take the get there; the aforementioned September Surge. The idea of the Rockies being this super second half team was fueled by our run to the playoffs not only in 2007, but from 2009 as well when we went from 20-32 in June to a 92-70 record that included an 18-9 September. Several “experts”, most famously Kruk, counted the Rockies out that entire summer just as they did in 07. After the Rocies surged to the playoffs twice in three years, they began to develop that tag of second half team that can’t be counted out in September.
And you know what, as bad as the last two finishes have been, it’s very possible the Rockies regain this identity in the furture because both of their stars who are locked up for many years to come get better as the season goes on. Tulo gets the most press for this but Cargo’s career OPS is 115 points higher in the second half than it is in the first half to go alond with Tulo’s 150 point jump. Our pitching collapsed this season post ASB destroing any chance that even a healthy Cargo and Tulo could right this ship; but that doesn’t mean there’s not more late season magic in store for this team in the future.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 9:07 AM MDT reply actions 3 recs
It depends what you define Rocktober as
Do you define it as the Rockies simply playing in October? Sure…it can return rather easily. Or is Rocktober a mystical powerful force that wills the Rockies to the playoffs? I think most have defined it as the latter. That is dead.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 4, 2011 9:18 AM MDT up reply actions
That is to say, most would say the "September Surge" is the defining quality of "Rocktober"
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 4, 2011 9:19 AM MDT up reply actions
I dunno. To me "Rocktober" is just the Rockies playing in October.
Maybe because I didn’t live in Denver during the “Rocktober” run, I think of “Rocktober” as the Rockies rallying cry to make the playoffs, nothing more.
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
I just figured the fever was greater in Denver in 07
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
You know what?
It’s just occurred to me that from a stats perspective, Kruk and his cronies were absolutely right to maintain the Rockies wouldn’t make the playoffs. We’re only able to critiise him in hindsight.
I don’t expect this to be a popular sentiment :)
I don't think it's dead as much as it was misclassified
We have several second half everyday players on this team. As long as the pitching doesn’t collapse down the stretch (which it has the last two seasons), the Rockies are more likely than most teams to make a run in August and September because that’s when Tulo and Cargo (and even Todd) are going to do their most damage.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 9:34 AM MDT up reply actions
I define Rocktober as the 2007 playoff push
And that’s it.
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 9:41 AM MDT up reply actions
That won't sell T-shirts when they win the division in 2012.
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Oct 4, 2011 9:42 AM MDT up reply actions
bingo
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 9:46 AM MDT up reply actions
When you get right down to it
Rocktober is more connotation than denotation. Perhaps that’s the real magic of it. It can mean whatever each Rockie wants it to mean to them on an individual level.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 9:46 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Call it whatever you want.
I just want to play in October. As the NL West winner.
I don't even care if we win the division
just get the WC and win the WS
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
I just want a team that doesn't make me cringe.
"Are they called the Rockies because they rock?" - 7 y.o.
I want us to win the National League West Division then go on to win the World Series.
I want us to win both of these while Todd Helton is still a Rockie.
I want us to display both of these titles in very prominent places at Coors Field .
I want this to happen when I can still go to the games and root like hell.
So for the sake of all that is good in baseball land…
HURRY UP ROCKIES , TIME IS WASTING
love, butterfly
In all things, it is better to hope than despair.
by butterfly on Oct 4, 2011 10:12 AM MDT up reply actions 4 recs
Did we mention Jordan Schafer yesterday? I can't recall.
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/10/4/2468499/astros-outfielder-jordan-schafer-arrested-felony-charges
POT!
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I didn't realize he was such good friends with Mr. Lincecum
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 9:48 AM MDT up reply actions
He was arrested at the Cheesecake Factory at 2 AM.
Who can say that that hasn’t happened to them? Come on!
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
I hope he
offered the cops one of his marijuana peanut butter cups. It would have been the nice thing to do.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
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Does this mean that he is bringing the brownies to Spring Training next year?
Thank you Cookie for many years of service. Hope all goes well with you in your continued career.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
And now we know why
Atlanta traded him
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
Among the top 10 clubs, only the Rangers, Blue Jays, Indians, and Nationals are considered to have good and deep farm systems.
The Royals’ “Best System Ever” came in at #24 overall on the list. The Rays slot in at #19 and the Braves incredibly deep system clocks in at #27.
It’s pretty safe to say that minor league record has little impact on the quality of talent in the system.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Well, not the opposite,
but that a losing record can be a good sign that your farm system is producing talent.
I would agree as a lot of players graduating to the next level
where they will likely take some time to adjust, will hurt your competitiveness
~ Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too ~
It means nothing
But I did get a chuckle when I saw the two World Series teams from last year year at the top and the Astros on the bottom.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 9:57 AM MDT up reply actions
Our 23 games under .500 can almost singlehandedly be traced back to the Casper Ghosts, who were 22 games under .500 this year.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
On the topic from yesterday about framing and Umpire decisions
I found this quote from Grantland.com amusing regarding the Tigers/Yankees game from last night:
Justin Verlander lasted eight innings and Jose Valverde backed up his victory guarantee with a difficult save as Detroit beat the Yankees 5-4 to go up 2-1 in the series. According to this normalized strike zone plot, home plate umpire Gerry Davis gave Detroit 11 bogus strikes to the Yankees’ four, and deprived Detroit of four legitimate strikes to the Yankees’ eight, for an incredible Tiger bias of +11. “Don’t come running to me,” said a perfectly capable robot, sipping a pina colada on an exotic beach. “Enjoy your human element.”
Get well soon Juan.
Once SABR analysis
finds a way to incorporate this human element (other than using nonsense words like “luck”) we’ll really be cooking with gas.
what else would you call a human element out of all player control?
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 4, 2011 12:54 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
like "we were lucky the Ump blew the call there"
Unless you think Verlander earned that zone due to his name.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 4, 2011 12:55 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
the issue is not the terminology
“luck” is fine for that, I suppose. Assuming Fogie is generally wrong and framing can’t materially impact this stuff and be quantified somehow (which I’m not sure is 100% true but is another argument) the very existence of this type of “luck” is a fundamental flaw in many models…and that it probably can’t be solved — hence the “cooking with gas” point. My post was really just more of an off the cuff joke on the notion of “three true outcomes” and stuff like that — which I think your first post crystallizes nicely. Not really trying to be serious and start a war here.
oh no warmongering tone inferred
Just trying to understand your point more
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 4, 2011 1:32 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
I see what you're driving at
Thing is, any mathematical model – hell, any model of any sort – has a fudge factor built into it.
We assume that every event still falls into that zero-sum concept: a batter’s success equates to a pitcher’s – or defender’s – failure.
But what about something like an infield bouncer that carroms off of the mound over to the 3B/SS hole and ends up in no man’s land for long enough that the batter reaches. We score that an infield hit, but let’s be real: the batter wasn’t aiming for that exact spot on the mound with his hard grounder, and the defense didn’t much it up. Fact is though, a runner reached base, but neither the pitcher nor the defense screwed it up.
That kind of play falls in with garbage umpiring, in my estimation. Brian Wilson lends his strike zone to Justin Verlander, while Sabathia gets a shoebox. Do you credit Verlander and fault Sabathia? I don’t know if that is fair to either of these masterful pitchers.
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 1:33 PM MDT up reply actions
Picks and Pans of Rockies defense not count their offensive contributions.
Who is killing us defensively? Pick your own useless metric or eye test; who do you want off the fortyman for their defense alone? I promise not to pick on CDI if no one else brings him up.. Spilly and Smith regressed badly this year; I always seemed to catch Nelson having a bad day.. Wiggy needs no explaination. Giambi did better than I expected, but I did not expect much. Pacheco is a work in progress at 1b and SSS did not impress me that much at third. I give him a pass for the moment.
We are going to miss Todd’s D at 1b when he goes particularly his picking skills. Am I the only one who thought his range was declineing a bit? Not saying dump Todd but noteing the natural progression. Garner did not get a chance to really prove anything but he is likely gone. I did not get to see Blacmon enough to hold an oppinion. I think he is the most likely outfielder to be traded in any package deal we make
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
Defense
to me was pretty much like the rest of the team to me this year: for the most part not flatly atrocious, but certainly far from good and so much room for improvement.
The good: Tulo and Carlos were elite of course, I was happy enough with what I saw from Ellis and certainly Todd is still doing his thing, if not at his prime levels.
The adequate: I do not share your disdain for CDI, though obviously he’s not the best defender in baseball (and I admit to no clue regarding the purported impact of his framing one way or another). Dexter seems to be worse than he should be, though even so he is still good. I’m not on the “Stewart is elite” boat but he’s not bad of course, though his sample was small this year.
The bad: pretty much everyone else that played a significant amount was either unimpressive or outright bad.
Lots of room for improvement here. Get to work DOD.
I think improvement on defense is actually the best opportunity for improvement next year.
As recent Rockpiles have shown, both the offense and defense sucked this year, but both have some strengths as well. It’s hard to know what we’re really going to get especially from the rotation, and it seems unlikely at this point that there will be some huge acquisition. If the Rockies upgrade their defense, I think it will help with the development of the young pitchers as well as make a significant dent in their runs allowed. The black hole at third seems to be a big target on everyone’s mind for an offensive upgrade, but I think it would be a mistake to accept poor defense. Second should be improved with a full year of Ellis, leaving right field as the other position that could be upgraded.
Useless metric!
I totally want to have this conversation now.
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 1:24 PM MDT up reply actions
OK.
UZR is stupid.
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Oct 4, 2011 1:52 PM MDT up reply actions
according to UZR
No it isn’t.
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 2:12 PM MDT up reply actions
Oh, ok.
Good talk.
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Oct 4, 2011 2:14 PM MDT up reply actions
It'll take 3 seasons for me to establish if that conversation's TTL actually qualifies for "good talk".
I’ll see you in 2014.
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 2:16 PM MDT up reply actions
Oh.
Well in that case I will raise a glass to this data point.
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Oct 4, 2011 2:22 PM MDT up reply actions
go ahead and raise whatever useless glass you'd like
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 2:23 PM MDT up reply actions
More like LUZR....
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
I don't buy UZR as much as I do other metrics, though.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 4, 2011 5:22 PM MDT up reply actions
I know I say this a lot
But I like the average the three big ones. It really helps eliminate outliers and fluke seasons by a certain metric.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 5:24 PM MDT up reply actions
I've grown much more a fan of DRS
though looking at all 3 definitely helps paint a more complete picture
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
DRS is usually in the middle so this is not surprising
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 5:28 PM MDT up reply actions
This is a good idea.
I should try this out.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 4, 2011 5:30 PM MDT up reply actions
ADR does this for you but it doesn't post until the end of the year and it includes the fan scouting report (so not perfect but pretty darn good)
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 5:47 PM MDT up reply actions
That's very good, IMO.
especially the fan scouting reports, good idea.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 4, 2011 5:53 PM MDT up reply actions
I just wished fangraphs used this type of thing for their defensive component of fWAR
Using UZR alone for that weakens what is otherwise an excellent stat.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 6:41 PM MDT up reply actions
WAR? Huh.
What is it good for?
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
all of the team's supposed off-season plans
really just make me yawn
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
My offseason plan was awesome and exciting.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
It's definitely been the highlight of this offseason so far
even though I don’t think the Braves are really internally discussing moving Heyward…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I would have been all over that plan
though I disagree that Atlanta would lose their minds and trade Heyward. But its the kind of visionary type strategy evidently lacking around here. Just because it seems highly unlikely doesn’t mean it (and by “it” I mean a bold plan like yours, if not the precise plan) shouldn’t be what DOD is looking at right now.
"there's no WAY we could get Mike Napoli for A reliever"
I was ripped at Halos Heaven for saying Dex and Stew was too rich. You just don’t know
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 4, 2011 1:01 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Fair enough
but Heyward ain’t Napoli. this to me would be more akin to the Dodgers trading Kemp after his lackluster 2010.
Kinda like the diamondbacks talking about trading Upton this past offseason
I think its just all talk. Probably to motivate Heyward to work hard in the offseason
i never saw the original story, just what people have been saying here
where is the speculation they would trade him coming from?
There was an MLBTR article that mentioned the possibility I think.
This was then totally and completely denied by the Braves’ GM. He said they are obviously disappointed. Heyward has to fight for his job, but he isn’t going anywhere. Nor have they talked about him going anywhere.
I think people outside of the organization
maybe sports writers? blogs? whoever, threw trading Heyward out there as a possibility. The Braves themselves either haven’t had any discussions about it, or are just hiding it if they did…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
That my biggest fear, more of the same
sign a Melvin Mora/Ty Wigginton type guy, bolster the rotation with a Rodrigo Lopez/Mark Redman/Kevin Millwood type pitcher, and get a Jose Lopez/Felipe Paulino reclamation project, same crap different names.
2011 - not even light can escape
To what plans are you referring?
I haven’t seen anything that I’d call a “plan” come from the FO.
DOD actually stated that he didn't know whether the team would buy, sell, or stay pat.
That is very disturbing to me. I don’t know whether he doesn’t have a clear plan forward or whether this is a reflection on ownership being indecisive. Either way, I don’t think we can expect the team’s problems to be suddenly fixed.
Hold up
The season ahsn’t even finished. I would hope the FO don’t have a set plan at this stage. I’m sure they’re looking at all possibilities right now, and by stating a preference for one course of action, not only do they potentially weaken their position (“we’re buyers”, says O’Dowd, and every rebuilding team in baseball ups its prices) but they may well have to go back on that statement when things change, as they inevitably will.
I know it's early in the off season...
Time to make those plans. I for one would like them to pick at least one major hole in the offense and say they will find a way to address it.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
So there is another possibility besides the two that I mentioned:
DOD is not revealing his position to the media. I could understand that, and hopefully it is the case. And while there is a need to remain flexible, if you don’t have some sort of plan for how to improve your club you’re not going to make much progress. There are strengths and weaknesses on this team, and failure to address the weaknesses will lead to more mediocrity.
I think it makes sense to just keep quiet
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Of Course the other reason O'Dowd might not have a plan is he knows he's not going to be here?
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
We won’t know until the Winter Meetings, though tendering Stewart a contract would go a long way towards clarity.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
God I hope they don't. It means wheather they plan to move at all forward or feed us more of the same to me
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
It’d be a one year contract, with Arenado looming in the weeds (who you will love, by the way).
The worst thing that happens is we trade him after a bad camp. If he turns the corner into a league average bat again, it was a cheap pickup we can flip after the season.
Very low risk move, and I hope they do it.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
by Muzia on Oct 4, 2011 11:29 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
If Arenado doesn't wind up at 1b because of some other move we make.
I am past wasting anymore money ,time or resources on Stewart. If he makes it elsewhere good for him. I doubt he will.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
We aren’t going to move Arenado to first base. He’s turning himself into quite the good defensive 3B. With the league-wide lack of quality 3B, he’s worth too much to shift over.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
flip him for Mike Moustakas you say?
why Muzia, I like this plan even more than the other one you had!
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Just whoever we've been linked to
and whoever we’re seeing as a trade chip.
It’s really too early to tell what the team will do and what the market will look like and such, but so far it’s pretty bleh.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Yeah agreed
I don’t blame the FO for not showing its cards, but I just hope it actually has some cards.
on the plus side
the Arizona Fall League starts today!!! (I Think!)
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
In about an hour, in fact.
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"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates
~WolfMarauder
by Greg Stanwood on Oct 4, 2011 11:33 AM MDT up reply actions
Good riddance to Rocktober.
It’s just one of the many crutches that holds this team back. Down a bunch of games at the trading deadline? Don’t worry — they’ll make a run. No need to add any pieces. Down 8 games at the end of August? hey, these are the Rockies — they’ll reel off 12 in a row and get right back into it. No need to change anything.
Bleh.
The sooner they drop this mentality, the sooner they can get around to building a team that wins from April through October, and the sooner they can hold guys accountable for taking weeks off at a time.
And while I’m at it, here are two other Rockies memes that need to die:
- “Because of HamptonNeagle we won’t even try to sign free agent pitchers.”
- “The Rockies are the “nice guy” team. We all get along, we’re fan friendly and we only want players who fit that mold." That’s nice, because, in the history of baseball, there have never been teams that hated each others guts and fought with each other that have won pennants. Nope, never, ever happened. Feel free to ignore the Gas House Gang, the Oakland A’s, the ‘78 Yankees and the ’86 Mets, among many others. Get the best players. And get winning players. If they’re nice guys, that’sa bonus.
by evers44 on Oct 4, 2011 12:13 PM MDT reply actions 4 recs
Hey now, we got Manny Delcarmen at the 2010 deadline
Which appeared to be just what a team with a shallow rotation and the crappy offense needed to get over the top. Who knew?
And I too have heard enough about the clubhouse bromance to last me a lifetime.
by Northsider1964 on Oct 4, 2011 1:26 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm ok
with not having a team of a-holes. Truthfully, I’d rather lose than root for a team I despise.
I'm almost with you here...
…but not quite. I’d take a ton of a-holes for a WS. And in any event, our perception of whether or not these guys are a-holes is probably not altogether accurate anyway. But if we’re going to lose anyway, lovable over hateable for sure.
I grew up a yankees fan in the mid/late 70's...
I’m talking about as irascible bunch of guys as have ever played. Reggie Jackson, Thurman Munson, Graig Nettles, Billy Martin, Sparky Lyle…. Hoo boy, what a crazy collection. Those guys didn’t even bother fighting each other in the clubhouse, they went at it in the dugout. And you know what — I didn’t care at all. They were winners — man, were they winners.
I’ll take that team any day of the week over a bunch of nice guys who finish (next to) last.
Look, I don’t know these guys. None of them are going to marry my daughter or move in next door to me. Who cares if they’re jerks — as long as they deliver big hits, make key plays and come up nails in the post-season, they can be whoever they want (within the limits of the law and not hurting other people, of course).
It’s like music. Do I care that Miles Davis or John Lennon or Mozart may not have been the nicest guys? Hell no — their job is to make music, not be my friend.
Same here. Sure, I’d much rather have a team I can like personally and win. But, if I only get to choose one, I go with the latter every time.
by evers44 on Oct 4, 2011 2:32 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Because I've lived in Colorado for 20 years....
and I believe in supporting my hometown team.
Nah, I'd rather live in Colorado and root for a bad team....
then have stayed in NY and rooted for a good one.
Some things > baseball.
There's a lot here
that I agree with. But I’m just making the obvious point that I’d rather like the guys than hate them all things being equal. But a ring trumps all, and I certainly agree with the point that these cats are never going to be my friends one way or another.
Sure.
As a fan, I’d rank my preferences this way:
1. Nice guys who win championships
2. Not so nice guys who win championships
3. Nice guys who don’t win championships
4. Not so nice guys who don’t win championships.
So, I guess there’s a positive — it could be worse for us! We could have a team full of malcontents and jerks who still can’t hit with RISP…… :)
i completely agree
give me some winning for once, then we can worry about peoples’ feelings
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
be happy, because 2012 is coming.
Ability can take you to the top,
but it takes character to keep you there.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 5:26 PM MDT up reply actions
Not just Hampton/Neagle for FA pitchers
DoD said in his end-of-season interview with Ringolsby what many of us have suspected for a long time: quality FA pitchers don’t want to pitch in Colorado*.
This means that you’re going to have to pay above market for them and/or give them longer contracts, which is probably a bad idea since the evidence seems to be mounting that pitching at Coors really does wear on the body more. So the options that are left are to develop your own pitching, reclaimation projects, and acquiring pitching through trades. DoD said explicitly in the same interview that he plans to pursue all of these.
(*) JDLR is the exception that proves the rule, but for him he was returning to a team and coaching staff he liked, so it was only a quasi-free agent signing.
"The game of baseball is made up of many little things. If we do all the little things right, then we'll never have a big thing to worry about" -- Cal Ripken, Sr.
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #3
I wasn't watching the game.
Was he right? It certainly wouldn’t be unheard of. Who was behind the plate?
check the link
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 1:37 PM MDT up reply actions
no
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
then wallow in confusion
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 1:40 PM MDT up reply actions
I love the term Wallow..
Somebody should make a candybar with that name, it could have marshmellow and whipped chocolate.
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
-- odowd apologist --
by Charlie77 on Oct 4, 2011 4:52 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
no
just tell me
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I love how Joe Torre is constantly being cited as Bud Selig's Mara Jade
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 1:40 PM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
I am disappointed
that this has only one rec (my own).
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
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I was baiting you
or something
ok really that’s the first name that popped into my head.
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 2:23 PM MDT up reply actions
/googles Mara Jade
/still doesn’t get it
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Oct 4, 2011 2:25 PM MDT up reply actions
I could explain this,
but Russ would probably do a better job. I haven’t read those books since they came out… when I had my subscription to the Science Fiction Book Club. Remember that? And Omni Magazine too.
3-2-1 Contact was the last science magazine I read.
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Oct 4, 2011 2:27 PM MDT up reply actions
yep.
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Oct 4, 2011 2:36 PM MDT up reply actions
Heir to the Empire
came out 20 years ago.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
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I really liked that book.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
An
annotated 20th anniversary edition came out last month.
Uh, I think we have an OT for all of this beyond the pale discussion.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
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yeah we drifted way too far in trying to explain a joke
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 2:38 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't think discussions get much paler, actually...
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Oct 4, 2011 2:41 PM MDT up reply actions 3 recs
I want to frame this and put it on the wall
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 2:42 PM MDT up reply actions
I'll embroider this on a pillow for you .....haha:)
In all things, it is better to hope than despair.
As it should be.
Most individuals in the GFFA had no idea Mara Jade was Palpatine’s secret agent, or “Hand” as she was properly referred to.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
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personal assassin.
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 2:28 PM MDT up reply actions
Oh.
I still hear Joe Torre and think Joe Throwy from the animated gifs a couple months ago.
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Oct 4, 2011 2:30 PM MDT up reply actions
but seriously
every time someone steps out of line, the call in Harvey Keitel Mickey Rooney Joe Torre to come fix everything
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 2:31 PM MDT up reply actions
That's Don Torre to you
now kiss the rings.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Ben Paulsen with an RBI single to score Salt River's first run of the season in the AFL
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"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates
~WolfMarauder
Ben Paulsen singles on a pop up to right fielder Oscar Taveras, deflected by second baseman Wilfredo Tovar
Um. What?
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
sounds like a simple no man's land popup to me
Paulsen is no Pujols but Tovar is no Barmes
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 4, 2011 2:48 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Ben Paulsen 2-2, RBI
Arenado and Wheeler have both GIDP. Good showing, chaps.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Wheeler just worked an 8 pitch at bat into a double off a LHP throwing 95+
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
standard Casey Weathers pitch sequence
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Nothing of value given. Nothing lost.
One less toy for a manger to play with.
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
/it is a new beginning, right?
by The Lodo Magic Man on Oct 4, 2011 2:05 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
BOOOOOOOOOO
I mean….whoooooooo?
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Oct 4, 2011 2:06 PM MDT up reply actions
I'd rather
have stewart get another shot than see Kouz back.
Feel free to grab your pitchforks….. I’m buried in my bunker ready for battle.
:)
a lot of us see it that way as well
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 2:20 PM MDT up reply actions
yep
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 2:23 PM MDT up reply actions
could definitely happen.
but I hope it doesn’t.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 4, 2011 5:32 PM MDT up reply actions
This guy can’t get a break. Didn’t he rake in the short time he was in Col?
No JonDogg2010, I’m afraid he didn’t. Unless, of course, you are referring to removing the leaves from his parent’s yard during the longer time he was in Colorado prior to his pro baseball career…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
Excellent
He was not part of the solution.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Oct 4, 2011 5:22 PM MDT up reply actions
What do we think of Garland on a one year deal if healthy?
~ Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too ~
I’ll take anyone on a minor league deal, provided he has at least one arm.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Lets sign Ganesh
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Not sure he'll come THAT cheap
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Oct 4, 2011 5:30 PM MDT up reply actions
Is Jim Abbott still available?
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
he's in his pool going in a circle.
/wut
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
/it is a new beginning, right?
by The Lodo Magic Man on Oct 4, 2011 8:23 PM MDT up reply actions
Depends on the focus next season
if it’s “stay the course, hope for prospect improvement to take the team somewhere great in 2013 and on” then sure, ~200 innings would be very acceptable in my estimation. If next year is supposed to compete though, he wouldn’t be much of an upgrade.
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by Andrew Martin on Oct 4, 2011 2:36 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't have an older brother,
but if I did, I’d give him up to see Rocktober again.
This year sucked.
by prettyinpurple on Oct 4, 2011 5:50 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
JFK's Quote of the Day:
“A good base stealer should make the whole infield jumpy. Whether you steal or not, you’re changing the rhythm of the game. If the pitcher is concerned about you, he isn’t concentrating enough on the batter.” Source: Five Seasons (Roger Angell) ~Joe Morgan
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
The Rockies will Rise Again.
Rocktober will never die. Next year will be THE year, just wait.
Colorado College Hockey, Colorado Avalanche, Colorado Rockies fan to the death.
"If you can't accept losing, You can't win." -Vince Lombardi
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