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2011 Rockies, Against The Odds

Sbn_ds_tiny by Xeifrank on

Here is a look at how the Rockies 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Rockies games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5073 which translates to an expected win total of 82.18 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Rockies game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5367 or 86.95 wins.  The Rockies actually went 73-89 on the season.  Of all the teams I've looked at so far, the Rockies missed their Vegas and Sim predictions by far the most of any team.  They played WAY below what everyone thought was their true talent level.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Rockies were the largest favorite to win.

Star-divide

RankDateAway SPHome SPAwayHomeFaveFave Win PercCOL Win PercSim COL Win PercWinning TeamAway RunsHome RunsTotal Runs
1 08-22-2011 Brett Myers Jhoulys Chacin HOU COL COL 67.213 67.213 72.122 COL 5 9 14
2 07-02-11 Kyle Davies Greg Reynolds KC COL COL 66.102 66.102 66.116 COL 6 9 15
3 06-12-11 Rubby DeLaRosa Ubaldo Jimenez LAN COL COL 65.812 65.812 69.122 LAN 10 8 18
4 06-13-2011 Anthony Bass Aaron Cook SD COL COL 64.727 64.727 64.62 SD 3 1 4
5 04-01-11 Ian Kennedy Ubaldo Jimenez ARI COL COL 64.602 64.602 72.359 ARI 7 6 13
6 05-01-11 Charlie Morton Ubaldo Jimenez PIT COL COL 64.539 64.539 69.523 PIT 8 4 12
7 04-29-2011 Kevin Correia Jhoulys Chacin PIT COL COL 64.349 64.349 68.571 PIT 3 0 3
8 05-12-11 John Niese Ubaldo Jimenez NYN COL COL 63.504 63.504 59.231 NYN 9 5 14
9 08-23-2011 Bud Norris Alex White HOU COL COL 62.963 62.963 66.456 COL 6 8 14
10 05-14-2011 Aaron Harang Jhoulys Chacin SD COL COL 62.617 62.617 63.707 SD 9 7 16
11 05-24-2011 Josh Collmenter Jhoulys Chacin ARI COL COL 62.406 62.406 62.406 ARI 5 2 7
12 08-06-11 Livan Hernandez Jhoulys Chacin WAS COL COL 62.335 62.335 59.861 COL 7 15 22
13 04-16-2011 Casey Coleman Jason Hammel CHN COL COL 62.193 62.193 63.951 CHN 8 3 11
14 05-09-11 Chris Capuano Jhoulys Chacin NYN COL COL 62.049 62.049 57.925 COL 2 1 3
15 04-30-2011 Paul Maholm Jason Hammel PIT COL COL 61.832 61.832 57.264 COL 1 4 5
16 05-24-2011 Joe Saunders Jorge de la Rosa ARI COL COL 61.686 61.686 61.686 COL 4 12 16
17 05-13-2011 Dustin Moseley Jorge de la Rosa SD COL COL 60.861 60.861 70.765 COL 7 12 19
18 07-01-11 Danny Duffy Juan Nicasio KC COL COL 60.396 60.396 65.798 COL 0 9 9
19 05-26-2011 Micah Owings Clay Mortensen ARI COL COL 60.396 60.396 63.39 ARI 6 3 9
20 08-16-2011 Anibal Sanchez Jhoulys Chacin FLA COL COL 60.396 60.396 63.595 FLA 6 5 11
21 08-24-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Aaron Cook HOU COL COL 60.396 60.396 63.594 COL 6 7 13
22 04-02-11 Daniel Hudson Jorge de la Rosa ARI COL COL 60 60 63.269 COL 1 3 4
23 05-10-11 Mike Pelfrey Jason Hammel NYN COL COL 60 60 59.812 NYN 4 3 7
24 06-18-2011 Phil Coke Ubaldo Jimenez DET COL COL 59.839 59.839 59.247 COL 4 5 9
25 05-27-2011 Jake Westbrook Ubaldo Jimenez STL COL COL 59.759 59.759 58.526 STL 10 3 13
26 06-14-2011 Wade LeBlanc Juan Nicasio SD COL COL 59.596 59.596 59.524 COL 3 6 9
27 06-15-2011 Mat Latos Jhoulys Chacin SD COL COL 59.596 59.596 61.057 COL 3 6 9
28 04-19-2011 Jonathan Sanchez Ubaldo Jimenez SF COL COL 59.267 59.267 54.06 SF 6 3 9
29 06-29-2011 Mark Buehrle Ubaldo Jimenez CHA COL COL 59.267 59.267 60.203 CHA 3 2 5
30 08-15-2011 Clay Hensley Kevin Millwood FLA COL COL 59.267 59.267 66.41 COL 4 7 11
31 06-11-11 Ted Lilly Jason Hammel LAN COL COL 59.184 59.184 64.088 LAN 11 7 18
32 06-10-11 Chad Billingsley Jhoulys Chacin LAN COL COL 58.932 58.932 58.094 COL 5 6 11
33 04-15-2011 Matt Garza Jhoulys Chacin CHN COL COL 58.763 58.763 59.86 COL 0 5 5
34 07-03-11 Luke Hochevar Jason Hammel KC COL COL 58.159 58.159 68.708 KC 16 8 24
35 08-04-11 Ross Detwiler Esmil Rogers WAS COL COL 57.356 57.356 61.434 COL 3 6 9
36 06-07-11 Ubaldo Jimenez Tim Stauffer COL SD COL 57.356 57.356 53.073 SD 0 2 2
37 05-15-2011 Mat Latos Jason Hammel SD COL COL 57.265 57.265 64.945 SD 8 2 10
38 04-26-2011 Jorge de la Rosa James Russell COL CHN COL 57.173 57.173 52.852 COL 4 3 7
39 07-14-2011 Yovanni Gallardo Ubaldo Jimenez MIL COL COL 57.173 57.173 65.171 COL 3 12 15
40 05-17-2011 Jonathan Sanchez Ubaldo Jimenez SF COL COL 57.082 57.082 54.012 COL 3 5 8
41 09-09-11 Homer Bailey Jhoulys Chacin CIN COL COL 56.989 56.989 62.7 CIN 4 1 5
42 07-19-2011 Brandon Beachy Ubaldo Jimenez ATL COL COL 56.989 56.989 64.315 COL 3 12 15
43 07-24-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez Micah Owings COL ARI COL 56.989 56.989 58.84 ARI 0 7 7
44 09-07-11 Joe Saunders Kevin Millwood ARI COL COL 56.236 56.236 60.963 ARI 5 3 8
45 07-31-2011 Juan Nicasio Wade LeBlanc COL SD COL 55.85 55.85 55.847 SD 3 8 11
46 05-08-11 Jorge de la Rosa Ryan Vogelsong COL SF COL 55.752 55.752 56.18 SF 0 3 3
47 06-28-2011 Gavin Floyd Jason Hammel CHA COL COL 55.654 55.654 56.734 COL 2 3 5
48 04-08-11 Jorge de la Rosa Ross Ohlendorf COL PIT COL 55.556 55.556 58.65 PIT 3 5 8
49 09-15-2011 Ryan Vogelsong Jhoulys Chacin SF COL COL 55.556 55.556 61.087 SF 8 5 13
50 05-04-11 Jhoulys Chacin Barry Enright COL ARI COL 55.457 55.457 58.968 COL 6 4 10
51 05-29-2011 Kyle Lohse Jhoulys Chacin STL COL COL 55.457 55.457 54.791 STL 4 3 7
52 09-10-11 Bronson Arroyo Alex White CIN COL COL 55.257 55.257 59.241 COL 7 12 19
53 08-05-11 Jordan Zimmerman Juan Nicasio WAS COL COL 55.056 55.056 57.83 WAS 5 3 8
54 07-30-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez Aaron Harang COL SD COL 55.056 55.056 56.526 COL 10 6 16
55 06-09-11 Clayton Kershaw Juan Nicasio LAN COL COL 54.649 54.649 49.906 COL 7 9 16
56 05-03-11 Jorge de la Rosa Joe Saunders COL ARI COL 54.545 54.545 56.283 ARI 3 4 7
57 06-21-2011 Jhoulys Chacin Mitch Talbot COL CLE COL 54.442 54.442 57.315 COL 4 3 7
58 07-15-2011 Chris Narveson Juan Nicasio MIL COL COL 54.442 54.442 54.953 COL 0 4 4
59 07-18-2011 Derek Lowe Jason Hammel ATL COL COL 54.233 54.233 57.849 ATL 7 4 11
60 09-05-11 Wade Miley Esmil Rogers ARI COL COL 54.023 54.023 64.241 ARI 10 7 17
61 08-20-2011 Ted Lilly Esmil Rogers LAN COL COL 53.811 53.811 66.847 COL 6 7 13
62 04-10-11 Jhoulys Chacin James McDonald COL PIT COL 53.596 53.596 57.862 COL 6 5 11
63 04-17-2011 Ryan Dempster Alan Johnson CHN COL COL 53.596 53.596 54.482 COL 5 9 14
64 04-20-2011 Matt Cain Jorge de la Rosa SF COL COL 53.488 53.488 55.553 COL 2 10 12
65 09-11-11 Edinson Volquez Drew Pomeranz CIN COL COL 53.38 53.38 63.107 COL 1 4 5
66 05-25-2011 Ian Kennedy Jason Hammel ARI COL COL 53.38 53.38 60.592 ARI 2 1 3
67 08-17-2011 Ricky Nolasco Aaron Cook FLA COL COL 53.38 53.38 61.644 COL 5 12 17
68 09-21-2011 Anthony Bass Aaron Cook SD COL COL 53.162 53.162 57.76 SD 4 0 4
69 07-16-2011 Zach Greinke Jhoulys Chacin MIL COL COL 52.941 52.941 56.547 MIL 8 7 15
70 09-17-2011 Eric Surkamp Drew Pomeranz SF COL COL 52.941 52.941 59.3 SF 6 5 11
71 06-01-11 Ubaldo Jimenez Jon Garland COL LAN COL 52.719 52.719 57.694 COL 3 0 3
72 04-06-11 Chad Billingsley Jason Hammel LAN COL COL 52.607 52.607 55.299 COL 5 7 12
73 08-07-11 John Lannan Aaron Cook WAS COL COL 52.607 52.607 57.04 WAS 3 2 5
74 07-09-11 Ubaldo Jimenez Jason Marquis COL WAS COL 52.494 52.494 54.484 COL 2 1 3
75 06-17-2011 Rick Porcello Jason Hammel DET COL COL 52.381 52.381 61.031 COL 6 13 19
76 05-19-2011 Jhoulys Chacin Joe Blanton COL PHI COL 52.267 52.267 49.59 COL 7 1 8
77 05-22-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez Randy Wolf COL MIL COL 52.038 52.038 56.671 MIL 1 3 4
78 04-14-2011 Jorge de la Rosa Chris Capuano COL NYN COL 51.923 51.923 51.323 COL 6 5 11
79 09-19-2011 Cory Luebke Kevin Millwood SD COL COL 51.923 51.923 50.59 SD 8 2 10
80 09-06-11 Josh Collmenter Jason Hammel ARI COL COL 51.574 51.574 54.246 COL 3 8 11
81 06-08-11 Aaron Cook Dustin Moseley COL SD COL 51.1 51.1 51.266 COL 5 3 8
82 04-22-2011 Jhoulys Chacin Anibal Sanchez COL FLA COL 50.86 50.86 54.33 FLA 1 4 5
83 08-19-2011 Hiroki Kuroda Jason Hammel LAN COL COL 50.86 50.86 59.707 LAN 8 2 10
84 06-04-11 Jhoulys Chacin Madison Bumgarner COL SF COL 50.739 50.739 45.305 COL 2 1 3
85 07-20-2011 Tim Hudson Juan Nicasio ATL COL COL 50.739 50.739 58.22 COL 2 3 5
86 07-21-2011 Tommy Hanson Jhoulys Chacin ATL COL COL 50.617 50.617 56.695 ATL 9 6 15
87 04-05-11 Clayton Kershaw Jhoulys Chacin LAN COL COL 50.495 50.495 51.707 COL 0 3 3
88 04-23-2011 Jason Hammel Javier Vazquez COL FLA COL 50.249 50.249 57.719 COL 3 1 4
89 08-21-2011 Chad Billingsley Kevin Millwood LAN COL COL 50.249 50.249 59.076 COL 3 5 8
90 07-17-2011 Shaun Marcum Aaron Cook MIL COL COL 50 50 59.844 MIL 4 3 7
91 06-30-2011 Jake Peavy Aaron Cook CHA COL CHA 50.249 49.751 54.727 CHA 6 4 10
92 06-06-11 Clay Mortensen Clayton Richard COL SD SD 50.617 49.383 52.701 COL 3 0 3
93 09-02-11 Kevin Millwood Aaron Harang COL SD SD 51.338 48.662 51.226 COL 3 0 3
94 04-09-11 Greg Reynolds Charlie Morton COL PIT PIT 51.338 48.662 54.358 COL 6 4 10
95 08-02-11 Kyle Kendrick Aaron Cook PHI COL PHI 51.574 48.426 57.47 PHI 5 0 5
96 09-25-2011 Kevin Millwood Lucas Harrell COL HOU HOU 51.574 48.426 57.932 COL 19 3 22
97 04-11-11 Jason Hammel Mike Pelfrey COL NYN NYN 51.691 48.309 51.027 COL 7 6 13
98 04-07-11 Esmil Rogers Paul Maholm COL PIT PIT 51.923 48.077 49.037 COL 7 1 8
99 05-05-11 Jason Hammel Ian Kennedy COL ARI ARI 52.153 47.847 48.04 ARI 2 3 5
100 05-06-11 Ubaldo Jimenez Matt Cain COL SF SF 52.267 47.733 48.584 SF 3 4 7
101 04-13-2011 Esmil Rogers John Niese COL NYN NYN 52.267 47.733 43.773 COL 5 4 9
102 06-20-2011 Juan Nicasio Fausto Carmona COL CLE CLE 52.267 47.733 43.908 COL 8 7 15
103 05-30-2011 Jason Hammel Chad Billingsley COL LAN LAN 52.381 47.619 46.886 LAN 1 7 8
104 07-25-2011 Juan Nicasio Rubby DeLaRosa COL LAN LAN 52.494 47.506 51.184 LAN 5 8 13
105 06-05-11 Jason Hammel Ryan Vogelsong COL SF SF 52.941 47.059 50.001 SF 1 2 3
106 09-24-2011 Jason Hammel J.A. Happ COL HOU HOU 52.941 47.059 53.51 COL 4 2 6
107 05-31-2011 Clay Mortensen Ted Lilly COL LAN LAN 53.162 46.838 49.103 LAN 2 8 10
108 08-08-11 Jason Hammel Homer Bailey COL CIN CIN 53.596 46.404 46.367 COL 10 7 17
109 06-27-2011 Jhoulys Chacin Matt Garza COL CHN CHN 53.596 46.404 48.717 CHN 3 7 10
110 09-22-2011 Alex White Henry Sosa COL HOU HOU 53.596 46.404 56.72 HOU 6 9 15
111 06-22-2011 Jason Hammel Josh Tomlin COL CLE CLE 53.811 46.189 46.008 CLE 3 4 7
112 08-28-2011 Jhoulys Chacin Nathan Eovaldi COL LAN LAN 53.811 46.189 55.937 COL 7 6 13
113 07-29-2011 Jason Hammel Tim Stauffer COL SD SD 54.023 45.977 44.403 COL 3 2 5
114 09-20-2011 Mat Latos Jhoulys Chacin SD COL SD 54.023 45.977 57.85 SD 2 1 3
115 05-28-2011 Jaime Garcia Juan Nicasio STL COL STL 54.442 45.558 41.942 COL 4 15 19
116 09-16-2011 Madison Bumgarner Alex White SF COL SF 54.853 45.147 48.914 SF 9 1 10
117 04-25-2011 Esmil Rogers Matt Garza COL CHN CHN 55.056 44.944 42.635 COL 5 3 8
118 04-18-2011 Tim Lincecum Esmil Rogers SF COL SF 55.257 44.743 50.399 SF 8 1 9
119 05-07-11 Clay Mortensen Madison Bumgarner COL SF SF 55.556 44.444 38.949 SF 2 3 5
120 09-26-2011 Jhoulys Chacin Ryan Vogelsong COL SF SF 55.654 44.346 47.089 SF 1 3 4
121 07-10-11 Jhoulys Chacin Jordan Zimmerman COL WAS WAS 55.947 44.053 44.869 WAS 0 2 2
122 08-26-2011 Esmil Rogers Ted Lilly COL LAN LAN 56.044 43.956 56.454 LAN 1 6 7
123 04-14-2011 Greg Reynolds R.A. Dickey COL NYN NYN 56.332 43.668 44.416 COL 9 4 13
124 06-03-11 Juan Nicasio Matt Cain COL SF SF 56.427 43.573 42.76 SF 1 3 4
125 07-05-11 Jhoulys Chacin Derek Lowe COL ATL ATL 56.427 43.573 48.939 ATL 3 5 8
126 07-08-11 Jason Hammel John Lannan COL WAS WAS 56.427 43.573 49.653 COL 3 2 5
127 08-11-11 Jhoulys Chacin Johnny Cueto COL CIN CIN 56.427 43.573 45.45 CIN 1 2 3
128 06-24-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez A.J. Burnett COL NYA NYA 56.427 43.573 41.809 COL 4 2 6
129 07-04-11 Ubaldo Jimenez Tommy Hanson COL ATL ATL 56.522 43.478 48.559 ATL 1 4 5
130 06-19-2011 Justin Verlander Aaron Cook DET COL DET 56.616 43.384 47.288 DET 9 1 10
131 08-27-2011 Kevin Millwood Chad Billingsley COL LAN LAN 56.616 43.384 46.352 LAN 6 7 13
132 08-01-11 Cole Hamels Jhoulys Chacin PHI COL PHI 56.71 43.29 45.787 PHI 4 3 7
133 04-24-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez Josh Johnson COL FLA FLA 57.265 42.735 44.116 FLA 3 6 9
134 09-23-2011 Drew Pomeranz Brett Myers COL HOU HOU 57.265 42.735 42.47 HOU 2 11 13
135 08-09-11 Esmil Rogers Dontrelle Willis COL CIN CIN 57.356 42.644 49.071 COL 3 2 5
136 08-30-2011 Aaron Cook Wade Miley COL ARI ARI 57.356 42.644 48.012 ARI 4 9 13
137 05-18-2011 Jorge de la Rosa Cole Hamels COL PHI PHI 57.537 42.463 40.956 PHI 1 2 3
138 05-20-2011 Jason Hammel Zach Greinke COL MIL MIL 57.537 42.463 50.4 MIL 6 7 13
139 09-04-11 Aaron Cook Mat Latos COL SD SD 57.717 42.283 45.117 SD 2 7 9
140 05-16-2011 Tim Lincecum Clay Mortensen SF COL SF 58.071 41.929 43.421 COL 4 7 11
141 09-03-11 Alex White Cory Luebke COL SD SD 58.333 41.667 40.75 COL 5 4 9
142 07-27-2011 Aaron Cook Hiroki Kuroda COL LAN LAN 58.333 41.667 47.844 COL 3 1 4
143 07-23-2011 Jason Hammel Josh Collmenter COL ARI ARI 58.592 41.408 42.284 ARI 3 12 15
144 05-21-2011 Clay Mortensen Shaun Marcum COL MIL MIL 58.678 41.322 44.173 MIL 2 3 5
145 08-12-11 Aaron Cook Kyle Lohse COL STL STL 58.932 41.068 41.113 STL 1 6 7
146 08-31-2011 Esmil Rogers Josh Collmenter COL ARI ARI 59.267 40.733 49.986 ARI 2 4 6
147 07-26-2011 Jhoulys Chacin Clayton Kershaw COL LAN LAN 59.432 40.568 42.908 LAN 2 3 5
148 08-14-2011 Esmil Rogers Edwin Jackson COL STL STL 59.759 40.241 40.148 STL 2 6 8
149 09-18-2011 Matt Cain Esmil Rogers SF COL SF 60.239 39.761 53.42 SF 12 5 17
150 08-29-2011 Alex White Daniel Hudson COL ARI ARI 60.552 39.448 43.276 ARI 1 5 6
151 08-10-11 Kevin Millwood Mike Leake COL CIN CIN 61.832 38.168 43.385 CIN 2 3 5
152 06-26-2011 Juan Nicasio Ivan Nova COL NYA NYA 61.905 38.095 36.038 NYA 4 6 10
153 07-22-2011 Aaron Cook Daniel Hudson COL ARI ARI 61.905 38.095 43.944 COL 8 4 12
154 07-07-11 Juan Nicasio Tim Hudson COL ATL ATL 62.756 37.244 41.208 ATL 3 6 9
155 09-28-2011 Drew Pomeranz Matt Cain COL SF SF 62.756 37.244 39.845 COL 6 3 9
156 08-13-2011 Jason Hammel Jaime Garcia COL STL STL 63.168 36.832 33.013 COL 6 1 7
157 09-14-2011 Kevin Millwood Shaun Marcum COL MIL MIL 63.702 36.298 41.569 COL 6 2 8
158 09-27-2011 Alex White Madison Bumgarner COL SF SF 64.727 35.273 37.219 SF 0 7 7
159 07-06-11 Aaron Cook Jair Jurrjens COL ATL ATL 64.851 35.149 41.315 ATL 1 9 10
160 08-03-11 Roy Halladay Jason Hammel PHI COL PHI 65.636 34.364 41.819 PHI 8 6 14
161 06-25-2011 Aaron Cook C.C. Sabathia COL NYA NYA 67.213 32.787 29.564 NYA 3 8 11
162 09-13-2011 Esmil Rogers Zach Greinke COL MIL MIL 68.254 31.746 39.553 MIL 1 2 3

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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These simulations

and predictions are just no match for Jim Tracy.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

by Resolution on Nov 18, 2011 10:33 AM MST reply actions  

The Cubs suck

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Nov 18, 2011 10:55 AM MST up reply actions  

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