Baseball Thesis

by squalene203 on Nov 29, 2011 6:48 PM MST

Greetings denizens of Purple Row. I've been a constant reader, occasional poster on this fine blog for some years now, and this is my first fanpost. I'm heading into the last semester of my undergrad career, and I need an idea for my senior thesis. I was hoping the intelligent and imaginative folks here could help me, since I want my idea to center around Major League Baseball.

I'm an economics major, and I want my thesis to explore some statistical or econometric aspect of MLB. For example, Ross Ohlendorf, formerly of the Pirates (no idea where he is now; didn't Tulo conk him over the head with a line drive once?) did a study on draft pick compensation and how much value a team could expect to receive from their picks. I want to do something in that vein, in other words, formulate a question, gather some data, and test for correlation and statistical significance. Unfortunately, I don't have the foggiest idea what my question should be.

I've kicked around a few ideas in my head. For instance: what determines free agent salary and do teams receive fair value for their signs? Another: what factor does weather play on offense, defense, and pitching league-wide? Can we find statistical proof of the use of steroids affecting performance?

These are just a few ideas that I think are somewhat interesting, but perhaps not meaty enough to fill out a thirty page thesis. So I'm throwing this out to the very knowledgeable Purple Row community: what questions do you have about Major League Baseball, but don't really know the answers to? What study do you want to have done, but don't have the time to tackle? I'm open to any and all ideas, and would greatly appreciate some feedback. I'll let you know which topic I pick, and if you all are interested, I'll fanpost my thesis when I finish it next spring.

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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One thing that I think needs more research

though could be pretty difficult, is something on managerial effectiveness. I’m happy to brainstorm ideas.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Nov 29, 2011 10:29 PM MST reply actions

That's an interesting idea, but yeah, might be tough.

A lot of what managers do isn’t quantifiable. Maybe I could look at how often things like bunts, double switches, and pitching changes “pay off”. Or maybe I could see which managers (or pitching coaches) are the best at calming down their pitchers during mound visits; ie, which managers actually get their pitchers to get outs after the mound visit.

Interesting stuff, but data might be hard to come by and results could be inconclusive or confounded by other factors.

I met a gin-soaked barroom queen in Memphis...

by squalene203 on Nov 30, 2011 1:39 PM MST up reply actions

I'm not sure what the parameters of your thesis are

but regardless of actual findings, I’d imagine that any newer or more sophisticated attempt to quantify managerial changes would contribute a significant deal.

Just off the top of my head, I might try to compare Tracy’s management style in 2009 with him in 2010 or 2011. I think it’s a good start because you’d have a lot of things controlled for (IE the actual manager, a significant number of players). There’s also some logic behind it since I get the impression that a lot of us feel that the way Tracy managed in 2009 was different (and better) than how he managed in 2010 or 2011. My guess though is that it would require examining a lot of his player switches and the value of those changes in terms of wOBA or something like WPA.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Nov 30, 2011 1:57 PM MST up reply actions

there's also the vaunted "lineup stability" theory that floats around

does the number of lineups used during a season (adjusted for injury) have a direct correlation to a team’s success?

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Nov 30, 2011 2:11 PM MST up reply actions

I thought about this too, but then I immediately think that if we’re trying to identify any benefit of lineup stability, Joe Maddon is going to wreck it.

Another thing you may want to examine is the Coors Hangover effect. Look at home/road series’ and see how long it takes players to adjust? And maybe conversly, how long it takes for players to re-adjust to altitude?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Nov 30, 2011 2:23 PM MST up reply actions

Welcome

Sabermetric research has become really big in the last few years. I’m sure you’re already a fangraphs (and other sites) reader. I’d suggest just diving into the stuff that’s already been done, finding an unresolved question in a piece of good research, and building your study off of that. After all, that’s what researchers do (and I should know as a PhD student).

I actually think an interesting aspect of baseball research that has been neglected, from what I’ve read, is the actual non-playing lives of players. Data might be hard to collect, but it would interesting to see the differences in post-career incomes for “star players” compared to every-day guys compared to utility guys. I would imagine, on the one hand, that higher profile players would be able to make more out of publicity-related careers. However, many would have so much money that they might choose not to work. On the other hand, less prominent players might do more actual work post career… But what do they do? And how successful are they? And does it matter if they went to college or not? Does anyone know?

Die-hard Rockies fan since 1993.
Poo-Bah of the San Diego Padres in the Purple Row OOTP League.
@Paul_Franz
My blerg

by EmersonCR on Nov 29, 2011 10:45 PM MST reply actions

Heh, I misread your intro

So I retract my welcome, as you’ve probably been around longer than me. Welcome, instead, to fanposting. :)

Die-hard Rockies fan since 1993.
Poo-Bah of the San Diego Padres in the Purple Row OOTP League.
@Paul_Franz
My blerg

by EmersonCR on Nov 29, 2011 10:49 PM MST up reply actions

Economics, eh?

How about you do a study on the arbitration system as currently constructed? Players have their “slave years” and theen arb years before free agency, but do the majority of players get adequate compensation for their services rendered or is it a broken system?

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Nov 30, 2011 8:53 AM MST reply actions

Well, it's certainly not a system based on perfect competition

I’d say it’s one of America’s strangest salary systems, that’s based mostly on service time, and secondarily on performance. But I’m not entirely sure what to test here. Obviously most players are underpaid in their pre-arb and arb years, and they are frequently overpaid after reaching free agency. I’m sure if I did a statistical study, I’d find those results; the question is, what conclusions would I draw from them? Players are clearly payed at different, artificial rates based on service time, so there’s not a whole lot to discover.

Maybe I could shift the focus a little. Maybe look at the composition of MLB teams and see the contract makeup of their rosters. Which clubs employ primarily pre-arb and arb players and which use FA acquisitions, and see which type of team has better success on the field. That could be very interesting.

I met a gin-soaked barroom queen in Memphis...

by squalene203 on Nov 30, 2011 1:52 PM MST up reply actions

Great take. I like it

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Nov 30, 2011 2:10 PM MST up reply actions

Could do something on players in contract years versus year after they get their contract

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Nov 30, 2011 2:14 PM MST up reply actions

I've always wanted to do research based on the success rate

of top prospects/prospects, it would be tough based on the fact that prospects are rated by opinion of different scouts and what not.

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Nov 30, 2011 2:12 PM MST reply actions

has nothing to do with economics, something I have always wanted to do though

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Nov 30, 2011 2:15 PM MST up reply actions

same here

but it’s a big project. I’d help put the data set together though

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Nov 30, 2011 2:17 PM MST up reply actions

Would you use multiple scouting rankings?

And then average the rank of the prospect for a mean value?

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Nov 30, 2011 2:19 PM MST up reply actions

use multiple scouting ranks, use both WAR equivalents.

I can’t think of another way to do it. It would also be interesting to do it for Top 100 prospects AND Top 10 team lists

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Nov 30, 2011 2:21 PM MST up reply actions

Yes I would want to do Top 100 prospects and Top 10 lists as well

and then basically value them at WAR is what I was thinking, had also pondered the idea of an side track chapter on what their career earnings in baseball ended up being

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Nov 30, 2011 2:25 PM MST up reply actions

I like this a lot.

There are a lot of places one could go with this. I could draw conclusions about which teams consistently groom top prospects, which teams encourage development of prospects, which teams know what to do with their prospects, whether having a ton of prospects forecasts future success… this could be a great topic.

by squalene203 on Nov 30, 2011 3:49 PM MST up reply actions

One aspect that would be interesting to look at is how much winning/going to a World Series helps a club financially

There are so many things to explore here – Attendance, team brand, merchandise, the net worth of a franchise, etc….

Unfortunately there may also be some extraneous variables to watch out for here too like what the Marlins did to their rosters after their World Series wins, but if you set up the proper parameters and isolate what you really want to focus here, you could have an outstanding piece.

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Nov 30, 2011 2:45 PM MST reply actions

I am finishing my senior thesis right now as a history major. I looked at the book “Past Time: Baseball as History” by Jules Tygiel which I highly highly recommend to any baseball fan. It is phenomenal.

Anyway he looked at a couple of different economic aspects in baseball, mainly dealing with fan interaction. He liked at the influence og night games, fan attendence, Babe Ruth’s salary before and during the depression, free agency, and the economics of farm systems. He also wrote an article about salary cap and championships

This might be a tad of a stretch since its primarily history and culture but interesting source nonetheless.

Good luck on the thesis!

by Tim Lorenz on Nov 30, 2011 5:04 PM MST via mobile reply actions