Rockies are 2 moves from ready, well 3 if Ellis leaves

I want to take a minute to frame out a slightly different way to look at the free agent market. As a small to medium market club, the Rockies have to count on bringing talent up through the minors and using it cheaply until their free agency kicks in. The Rockies will still need free agents, sometimes big ones. This is one of those years. We need one significant free agent.

Everyone knows that the Rockies farm system is weak. But it is weak in a particular way. There was a glaring lack of future stars in triple A in 2011. The one that was there was Rex Brothers, and relief pitching was the Rockies strong suit in 2011. But the lower levels of the farm system hold potential.

Basically a good prospect advances one level per year until they arrive in the majors. Obviously it is not a straight line, but it is not realistic to count on Nolan Arenado to make the jump from single A to the majors for 2012. More likely is 2014, or if we are lucky 2013, maybe even mid-year. He might also get hurt and arrive in 2015.

Enough of the set up, I want to look at the gaps the Rockies have to fill, and for how long, assuming everyone progresses in the one level per year fashion.

First Base – The Rockies have Todd Helton signed through 2013 and Ben Paulsen should reach triple A this year.

Second Base – Technically open right now. The return of Mark Ellis is likely. No one else on the Rockies roster or at triple A seems qualified. Tommy Field and Hector Gomez should spend 2012 with the Sky Sox and we can’t count out Josh Rutledge. One of these three should be ready for 2013. We need a one year solution.

Shortstop – Any idea as to who will get this job in 2012? I am at a loss.

Third Base – Nolan Arenado spent last year in single A. His time is likely 2014, though 2013 is possible. Absent the miraculous revival of Ian Stewart, there is no one with a prayer of holding down this position in the organization prior to the ascension of Arenado, whenever that happens. Third screams out for a trade or a free agent. The problem is we want a quality player for probably two years max. Aramis Ramirez isn’t going to sign a two year deal. Five probably is what it would take. That’s not even getting into total contract dollars.

Here is where DOD makes his money. Can he trade for a higher quality player with one or two years left on his contract as a bridge to the arrival of Arenado? This is where we play our trade chips. Alternatively we get a mid-level free agent and we get what we pay for.

Catcher – Chris Iannetta is under contract for 2012 and team control for 2013. Wilin Rosario should start the year in triple A. One of them becomes a trading chip when Rosario is ready.

Right Field – We have CarGo, we are good.

Center Field – Dexter Fowler’s contract covers 2012. Tim Wheeler should be in triple A. No decisions have to be made this year, but there is an important decision on which player to go with coming down the road for 2013.

Left Field – The cost effective way for the Rockies to handle left field in 2012 is to go with Charlie Blackmon and Ryan Spilborghs. An A list free agent would command serious dollars and multiple years. We have three serious outfield prospects in the pipeline in Wheeler, Parker and Massanari. We need the money for starting pitchers. Someone like a Josh Willingham would cost $6 million plus per year and the contract would have to be for at least three years.

Relief Pitching – Not a worry, plus we are adding Rex Brothers. Though you can never have enough pitchers in the minors.

Starting Pitching – Kind of the big problem. When Jhoulys Chacin is the anchor, experience is a problem. Setting aside Jorge De La Rosa, who will not be 100% until 2013, Chacin, Juan Nicasio and Jason Hammel are the ‘veterans’ with a combined 181 big league starts. Over half by Hammel who might be a better fit as a long reliever anyway.

Alex White should also start and his injured finger should not be a factor. He chips in another 10 starts from 2011 if you’re counting.

There should be two or three pitchers that finish 2012 strongly at triple A (Drew Pomeranz, Christian Friedrich, Joe Gardner) and double A (Tyler Matzek, Peter Tago, Chad Bettis). I find it hard to forecast the future of pitchers, but we have the bodies. Some of these pitchers may end up in a relief role. There just really isn’t anyone else to bring up to Denver as a starter in the system in 2012.

The Rockies key off season challenge is to add significant, experienced starting pitcher to the staff for 2012. Everyone knows this, but we actually only need them for two or three years. C.J. Wilson will probably go to a major market for a lot of dollars and years. There are some solid options after Wilson. We may have to offer more years or richer dollars to get the quality of pitcher we really need in free agency. So be it. A trade would be possible, but we don’t have enough chips to get both a third baseman and a front line starting pitcher by trade. We may not have a true number one pitcher until 2013. If we end up with a logjam of starting pitchers in 2014, one can always trade pitching for value.

We may also add a less talented veteran starter. Right now our staff can’t afford injuries. This is where a Jeff Francis, Bruce Chen or Roy Oswalt would fit for the Rockies. We could keep the years low so that there is room for the rising talent from the minors.

The point? The Rockies are a small to medium market club and have to prioritize. DOD should load up on landing the best free agent pitcher he can afford. Don’t block Arenado. He should trade for a good third baseman entering the last year or two of his contract, even if the dollars are a little high. Bring back Mark Ellis or his equivalent for a year. There may be some other minor moves to strengthen the bench and we are ready for spring training!