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Monday Rockpile: Rockies Free Agent Bat Targets Aren't Really Upgrades.

The MLB Free Agent crop is always an interesting bag. You have your topheavy classes and huge name players, you have some above average guys, and then a lot of scraps who are hoping for a bounceback or something. The Rockies right now are tied to Michael Cuddyer and Josh Willingham, and frankly, I'm not all that excited for either.

I'll give you my thesis right now for the rest of what I'm writing: None of the guys the Rockies are seriously looking at are any better than Seth Smith paired with an appropriate platoon partner (read: Jonny Gomes or similar; not Ryan Spilborghs).

Before I continue with the details, let me put this fact out there: in 2011, there were nearly 3 times as many PAs against RHP than against LHP. By this logic, we want a guy who can hit RHP well, regardless of their prowess against LHP, as they'll have 3 times as many chances to be awesome and productive. That said, we shouldn't just pretend that batting against LHP isn't important, but finding a platoon partner is going to be FAR cheaper than landing a 3-year deal for a guy who is "meh" against 75% of the pitchers he faces and dominates 25%.

I mean, think about it. The Rockies want a RHB because we're a lefty-heavy lineup. But why do we want a RHB? Because they hit LHP well, and lefties tend to shut down our lefty-heavy lineup. Essentially, it's not that we actually want a RHB, per se, but more that we want to not get dominated by LHP. So let's move forward.

I'm not thrilled with Michael Cuddyer. He's a plus bat, that's for sure, but we're not playing him at a position that's been a black hole in the lineup. With Nolan Arenado apparently already penciled in for the Rookie of the Year award and at least 2 MVPs over the next 5 years, Cuddyer is going to be playing a decent amount of RF. Maybe even some 3B while we wait for St. Arenado, then he'll take a little 1B time to spell Helton... yeah, he'll be Ty Wigginton with a better bat. There's something about bad fielders that just upsets me. Yeah, Cuddyer will add another plus bat to the lineup, but he's going to nullify some of that value with his poor defensive play. The Rockies are going to have to overpay for his production.

Star-divide

Cuddyer is roughly a league average bat against RHP and pretty awesome against LHP. Like, 160 wRC+ awesome (at least 60% above average). That all balances out to roughly a 25-30% increase above the league average bat. Which happens to be Smith's line against RHP. So assuming that Cuddyer faces a 3:1 R:L split, that means we can expect 75% of his batting production to be roughly "average" and the other 25% to be just skull-splittingly dominant. If we put Seth Smith in there only against RHP, we can expect 100% of his batting production to be solidly above average. Jonny Gomes, then (and it doesn't have to be Gomes, I'm just throwing him out there as a good example), only faces LHP, and 100% of HIS batting production is at a similar level.

Yes, Smith just had a poor year in the field. But this is why we look at muti-year samples with fielding. He just came off of 2 positive seasons in the field and then had a negative one. Gomes isn't a great fielder, that's just a fact. Cuddyer is arguably worse than both of them, and he hasn't had a season that graded out as positive since roughly 2005.

How about Josh Willingham? Well, he kind of makes sense for the Rockies in that he could... uh... play a corner OF slot. Badly. Again, not a defensive upgrade on Smith. His platoon splits are far more balanced in that he hits LHP at a 30% above average rate for his career and RHP at about 20% above average.

Great, right?

Well, Willingham also strikes out a lot. Didn't we just ship out two of our biggest strikeout perpetrators in Iannetta and Stewart? The two of them aren't exactly the same situation, but the team is clearly moving away from the "low AVG/High BB/High SLG" guys and looking at more contact guys who can move baserunners better and have a lesser chance of killing all them rallies with strikeouts.

How about Carlos Beltran? Yeah, he's a pipe dream, thanks to his dry-rubber-band knees, but his platoon splits are strong in all the right directions. He's a switch hitter who still hits both handed pitchers at an above average rate. Downside: he's apparently super expensive (is he?), he's a major injury risk (yes), he can't really field (also true), and there's a strong chance he wouldn't even want to come to Colorado.

Why are we so insistent of throwing Seth Smith out the door and welcoming in a marginal upgrade at his position for like 2-3 times as much money? 2B and 3B are still going to be a black hole, but oh boy, we added MAYBE 1 win to the season by having a different corner outfielder.

Honestly, and I'll conclude with this, the Rockies picked an absolutely AWFUL season to have to force hands and make a big move. The FA options that "make sense" for Colorado are redundant and don't really help the team all that much. But it's pretty much been declared that the Rockies are going to make that big move, to PROVE that they're committed to improving themselves. They're going to end up overcommitting to a marginal improvement and we'll once again be strapped for cash to fix the areas of the team that actually NEED help.

I know I keep talking about taking that risk, making that signing, but only do it if there's a legitimate shot that the player we take the risk on is actually going to fill a hole and not just add another couple of inches to the top of a hill. If we can't do that, go get a platoon partner for Smith and just fill in any other gaps with the best glovemen available. I don't care if that even means Herrera. Hell, if Arenado and Josh Rutledge tear up ST, maybe just throw the New Rockies out there (you know, the handpicked Tulo team) and let them gel for awhile.

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I wish the Rockies would slow down on these trades now...

Seth Smith was not a problem last year. I understand getting rid of some of the guys that underperformed (Wigginton, Stewart, Ubaldo, Street, and to a lesser extent, Iannetta). You can’t keep guys around who have proven that they can’t win together. I would MUCH rather find a platoon partner for Smith, at least for this season. It’d give Blackmon or Wheeler a little more time to develop and maybe when Smith hits free agency, you let him walk if you have someone ready to take his place.

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by I_Am_Marshall on Dec 12, 2011 7:41 AM MST reply actions  

The problem is

they consider Smith in that underperforming group as well.

That’s what really bothers me about this offseason, is that it seems to be more about getting rid of the “under acheivers” than actually filling real holes.

by webgem14 on Dec 12, 2011 8:00 AM MST up reply actions  

This is actually not true, Smith's not considered part of the underperforming group, neither was Iannetta.

Both are/were seen as valuable enough to bring something highly valuable back in trade. The Rockies believe this with Chatwood, and if Smith does get traded, they will believe it of what they get from him.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 8:12 AM MST up reply actions  

I rec the hell out of this post.

It's my blog!

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by biondino on Dec 12, 2011 7:42 AM MST reply actions  

Right on the money, Andrew

I’ve been arguing the same thing over the past few days. Willingham is better than Cuddyer, but neither are upgrades, and why we would bother with guys like this instead of going after players who would actually fill a hole is beyond me.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 7:48 AM MST reply actions  

Perhaps a trade or two is in order?

If we sign one of Willingham or Cuddyer, clearly that makes someone expendable, and maybe we could make a trade of such redundant talent for a hole-filler. Scutaro or Brandon Phillips would be nice.

by GoRoxGo on Dec 12, 2011 2:35 PM MST up reply actions  

Phillips is a difficult case to figure out.

With 10/5 rights, he’d have to feel pretty disrespected to accept a trade from his hometown team, and I don’t get the sense that’s the case right now. I was monitoring it a little earlier in the off season when it looked like it might go that direction, but I haven’t seen anything to show this will be the case since. I’d love to have him, I just don’t see it happening.

Scutaro, of course, I’m on board with.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 2:42 PM MST up reply actions  

D'oh, he doesn't have 10/5 rights...

I don’t know why I thought he did. I still see it as unlikely, the Reds owner really likes him.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 2:47 PM MST up reply actions  

Brandon Phillips?

What makes you think we even have a shot at him?

by steakman on Dec 12, 2011 2:42 PM MST up reply actions  

We have a shot...

It just might not be a very good one, especially since we’ve shot our best bullets already (Iannetta, Street).

by GoRoxGo on Dec 12, 2011 3:09 PM MST up reply actions  

That's a pretty picture you paint of the past, too bad it's not that accurate.

Iannetta and Street could not have been leveraged into Brandon Phillips.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 3:16 PM MST up reply actions  

Who says it has to be a two-team trade...

or only involve those two current Rockies? Prospects or other current roster players could always be a part of a deal. O’Dowd used to be the master of the three-team-trade (he even got involved in a four-team trade that involved Vinny). He was a very creative GM once upon a time. That was a long time ago.

by GoRoxGo on Dec 12, 2011 3:49 PM MST up reply actions  

He made so many misses on the personnel the Rockies got back in those trades, though

It’s no wonder he’s trigger shy right now. I still agree with you to an extent, though (not Phillips, but something like that should be possible right now.)

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 3:53 PM MST up reply actions  

Exactly....

DOD has become an impotent GM because he wears the scars of a man burned on past decisions. HampNeagle leads to no frontline SP free agent signings for a decade, is another example.

My point above is that if you hold onto your good bullets (Street, CDI) a little longer, it’s more likely something creative could be put together to yield a player of value for us. Now that they are gone and we got dregs back in return, his ability to engineer a deal that could be transformative for our team is much less.

by GoRoxGo on Dec 12, 2011 3:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Sorry, I hadn't read the rest of the thread...

when I wrote the above. Now I’m all caught up. Agreed on general underwhelming response to possibility of signing Cuddyer now. I guess we just have to wait to see what happens.

by GoRoxGo on Dec 12, 2011 3:05 PM MST up reply actions  

This view of Cuddyer needed some light

Excellent. The only thing I’d point out is that presumably signing Cuddyer and shipping out Smith would result in the return of an infielder better capable of handling 2B or 3B than LeMahieu.

Hawpe is a revered Rockie, but watching him play RF the last two seasons he was there was brutal. His defense made the rest of the OF vulnerable. Yet, his bat was acceptable enough to keep him in the lineup.

Now, we have an OF (Smith) who isn’t as good of a hitter, but is capable and significantly better in the field, and he’s unacceptable because of… need a platoon partner, bad attitude, permanent 4th OF? Who knows.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 7:48 AM MST reply actions  

Needs a platoon partner

gets translated into “bench player” by some. Apparently the FO has bought into that. I think DOD needs to stop reading the Post.

by webgem14 on Dec 12, 2011 7:51 AM MST up reply actions  

It's exactly this

If you’re a platoon player, the majority of fans see you as not good enough and believe if you sign a free agent that can play everyday, then he must be better. This is “validated” by looking at a player’s stat line that says Seth Smith has never hit for 20 home runs in a year while Cuddyer and Willingham have both done it multiple times in their career.

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by Cargo'es Yard on Dec 12, 2011 9:31 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

(and the view of Willingham)

The team’s not in a position, without a major upgrade for next year at 2B or 3B, plus a SP, where giving a three year contract to a 32 year old is going to make a difference without every single uncertainty breaking the Rockies’ way. The money not spent this year could be better spent at mid-season if there’s a miracle, or saved for next off-season.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 7:51 AM MST up reply actions  

agree, save it for other opportunities that show up, sometimes there are other fish in the sea and you just have to wait until you meet it. Or like when you need a new car cuz your old one broke. You can go out and get a car with 100,000 miles on it but you still have to pay $7500 for it and it is a risky move and it seems like there aren’t any other deals. Or you can pay $1000 for an ugly car that runs and does the job and save the $6500 for a different deal next year.

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by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 8:12 AM MST up reply actions  

maybe we will just trade for Hanley Ramirez

When all it takes is Vogelsong and Pill, why not? http://multimedia.foxsports.com/device/mobile/t/49528315/miami-might-do-well-to-trade-ramirez.htm?m_n=true

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by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 7:56 AM MST via mobile reply actions  

and move Tulo to 2B....

because Han Ram is only happy when playing SS.

by DenverBears on Dec 12, 2011 8:58 AM MST up reply actions  

It's exactly the same thing as Iannetta

Replace starter with veteran as younger players fit into the field and getting value for Smith. The hope is that Smith helps bring in a Martin Prado type piece without giving up a significant future player in the lineup. The only problem is that we killed our leverage in any Smith deal, the same way as Street.

Besides, Cuddyer is likely to only be out there in RF for one year before starting at first when Helton takes on a Giambi role for the team in 2013. We’re moving pieces that don’t fit into our future plans and signing players that can help us win yet bridge to the next generation of prospects like Rutledge, Arenado, Wheeler, Blackmon, Parker, Rosario, Pomeranz, White, and Nicasio. It’s their way of competing yet avoid Todd and the Toddlers again.

Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton

by MattBerger on Dec 12, 2011 7:58 AM MST reply actions  

The problem is that once Cuddyer starts the transition to 1B,

Helton will still be around. So, the type of player that the Rox would be trading away (Smith, LH) is exactly the type of player they’d like to have Cuddyer to split time with in the OF in 2013.

Otherwise, what do you do with RF when Cuddyer starts at 1B? I’m assuming Cuddyer would move to RF on days that Helton plays (which probably will still be at least half the season).

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 8:02 AM MST up reply actions  

Blackmon and/or Wheeler?

I’m assuming Fowler sticks around for 3 years (he has 4 years of control left) and CarGo obviously will be here.

You guys are forgetting the entire reason why we’re trading Smith in the first place.

Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton

by MattBerger on Dec 12, 2011 8:05 AM MST up reply actions  

Because we have an outfield glut

And the Rockies FO is confident that one of Wheeler or Blackmon could replace Smith for literally nothing while we trade Smith at his highest value?

Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton

by MattBerger on Dec 12, 2011 8:09 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

That's risky

considering Wheeler has no time in MLB and Blackmon has little where he hit a very empty .250. Not saying it won’t work out, but they should accept that as risk.

by webgem14 on Dec 12, 2011 8:11 AM MST up reply actions  

Of course

That’s why they’re paying for veterans right now, and that’s probably why we acquired Colvin.

Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton

by MattBerger on Dec 12, 2011 8:12 AM MST up reply actions  

And it's also why I don't want to trade Wheeler for Prado as well

Though I accept it’s probably what it’s going to take unless the Braves are batshit insane and keep asking for Arenado.

Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton

by MattBerger on Dec 12, 2011 8:14 AM MST up reply actions  

Wheeler has never played above AA

And Blackmon has 98 MLB ABs. We have approximately 3.2 (counting Smith, EY2 and Spilborghs as all on the roster still). Slow down a bit.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 8:16 AM MST up reply actions  

You're talking about an organization that continuously rebuilds itself through prospects

They’re not changing this one bit. They don’t see Blackmon/Wheeler as being ready this year, so one year of Cuddyer in the outfield, then Cuddyer eases Helton out. The only 1st baseman worth getting in 2013 is Napoli, and he’ll be out of our price range if he repeats next year. we have no solution for first base past this season. None.

Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton

by MattBerger on Dec 12, 2011 8:20 AM MST up reply actions  

Except Helton will still need to start 100+ games

It’s highly unlikely that they’d give him a Giambi-role in his last season.

That means about 1.75 seasons of terrible RF defense from Cuddyer during the 3 year contract. And then, the Rox have a 34 year old RH first baseman who has posted the following wRC+ vs. RHP over the last four years: 87, 112, 90, 101.

I’d rather have Adam Dunn.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 8:28 AM MST up reply actions  

wow, don't say something like that re Dunn.

That slow bat is likely on its last legs. His swing has developed some large, easily exploitable holes within the strike zone.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 8:39 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

No, you'll never change my mind because I'm inferring that it was just a down year

and I have anecdotal evidence in the form of Pat the Bat that when an NL player goes to the AL they are bad, but when they go back to the NL they are bomb.

Free Adam Dunn!!!

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 8:42 AM MST up reply actions  

It used to be the book on him was you could get him to chase sliders

But check out the jump in FB’s he saw in 2012, up to 62% from 54.4% in 2011 and up to 92.4 mph. That’s massive. Even without watching him on film this last year, I would think that would be a fairly obvious sign of what I’m talking about. He’s supposedly working on the issues this offseason, but there’s a huge amount of risk that this is near the end of the line for him.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 11:11 AM MST up reply actions  

Right, and not saying that's definitely a reversible trend

but I’ve got to think if the WSox are in full rebuilding, he’d be available for cheap.

Regardless, there’s no circumstance in which he fits on the Rox. Unless both Helton and Giambi go away and leave the money owed.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 11:15 AM MST up reply actions  

Cuddyer is highly unlikely to hit enough in 2013 not to be a real liability at 1B

And let’s not forget the costs of this potential switcharoo… Prado is going to make a few million more than Smith in arbitration. Basically, if we were to get Prado and Cuddyer, we’d be adding something like $12 million in salary for 2013, plus losing a prospect. If we keep Smith, and just bring in an Izturis or Callaspo (figuring that either of those guys would be obtainable for the same prospect that the Braves want in addition to Smith… given that the Angels can’t start both of those players, I think that’s a fair assumption), the team is certainly no worse than in the Prado/Cuddyer scenario, and we only add $3-4 million to the payroll instead of $12 million.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 8:04 AM MST up reply actions  

Again, I'm not sure what the Rockies are totally expecting for Smith

Obviously they want Smith to line up in a deal for a 2nd baseman, but it doesn’t mean we have to trade him for that.

Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton

by MattBerger on Dec 12, 2011 8:08 AM MST up reply actions  

When trying to trade a player, there are two ways to go about it

1) Find a team that needs the player more than you do, and make a fair trade that benefits both sides.
2) Try to find a sucker who will overpay.

The second is fun to contemplate, and every once in a while it works out beautifully (Vernon Wells, for example), but realistically, we need to be looking for trade partners that match that first criterion. And I don’t see any, largely because Smith is better than Cuddyer and just as good as Willingham (who, by all accounts, we’re not going to sign anyway), so we need Smith just as much as anyone else does. I just don’t see how we expect to come out ahead here… the only explanation is that the organization isn’t valuing Smith properly.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 8:19 AM MST up reply actions  

Hey, I'm sure Nick Schmidt is bound for glory!

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by Since1993 on Dec 12, 2011 10:58 PM MST up reply actions  

Yesterday I linked a Morosi report in the comments that said Dipoto wants to keep Izturis as a super-utility

That there is no desire whatsoever to trade either him or Callaspo. We’d have to overpay for either player.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 8:15 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Well, that's a bummer

But it doesn’t mean we’d have to overpay. If we need Callaspo/Izturis more than the Angels do, which is pretty clearly the case (since we need an everyday player), a trade can be worked out. Maybe this means that we’d have to pay fair value and can’t expect a bargain… I’m okay with that. It’s still better than the other plan, which pretty clearly has us overpaying.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 8:22 AM MST up reply actions  

But in any case, there are still other targets

Kelly Johnson (I know, we’ve discussed him before), Scutaro, Lowrie, maybe Sean Rodriguez… in any case, I see zero reason to meet the asking price for Prado.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 8:33 AM MST up reply actions  

if Scutaro is actually available

he’s my preferred trade target right now

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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 8:34 AM MST up reply actions  

he’s not, I traded for him to keep him and not to then deal him.

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by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 8:48 AM MST up reply actions  

I agree, re Prado being an overpay, I don't really want to do that deal

even at the Smith/Wheeler level, but that’s at least closer to what I’d consider a reasonable price. But it seems with Scutaro and a couple others being available at a bargain level, what’s a small overpay by talent becomes a huge one by the available market.

I’m going to say this here, but the only issue I have with Smith going forward is that this offseason really is his peak value when it comes to trade. There’s only a decline in that for the Rockies going forward, so while his production is sound, his trade value will still swiftly erode because of the escalating salary cost.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 8:34 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

That's a good point on Smith

And if we had an in-house alternative that projected to be even half as valuable as he does for 2012, I’d have no problem trading him. But when trading him a) doesn’t appear to be a particularly lucrative proposition, even with his value at its peak, and b) would force us to overpay to replace him, it doesn’t look so attractive.

Maybe the larger problem here is that we have exactly one outfielder down on the farm (Wheeler) who looks like a reasonable bet to turn into a competent regular. Because of that, Smith still has considerable value to us, both now and next year.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 8:43 AM MST up reply actions  

I get what you're saying about Smith's value being at it's peak

but often I get the impression that teams are more willing to overpay during the season. If a team that already likes Smith then has an injury or major regression from a player, they may be more motivated to acquire him.

I’m starting to think we should chill with the trading and wait until during the season to make deals.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 8:50 AM MST up reply actions  

This is a more valid argument for pitchers than it is position players, particularly OF's.

Waiting to the trade deadline will actually severely limit the market the Rockies have available to trade him too, so the sum to the leverage will usually turn out to be negative unless it’s a truly elite player. Look at what the Astros got for Bourn or Pence, for example, two OF’s that have a considerably higher trade market value than Smith.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 9:12 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

I mean, it could go either way. The Astros weren’t ideal in that they had a crappy GM and no hopes of contending. The Mets got a good haul for Beltran (not saying Smith and Beltran are equal). There’s been interest in Smith but there doesn’t seem to be a clear trade partner or a team that needs him – that could change once the season starts.

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by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 9:32 AM MST up reply actions  

I would argue that Cosart and Singleton isn’t a bad return for Pence, either. (We’ll ignore the Bourn return for now)

But there’s a gap between the value of Beltran/Pence and Seth Smith.

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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 9:34 AM MST up reply actions  

I mean, the trade wouldn’t only have to be Smith either. We can offer a package more enticing than just Smith, but the overall point is that waiting doesn’t necessarily diminish the return and dealing him now means we’re moving him just to move him in the hopes of signing Cuddyer or Willingham.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 9:37 AM MST up reply actions  

of course the bigger question is can DOD really stand pat for the rest of this offseason after he traded Street for nothing to free up salary to not stand pat?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 9:39 AM MST up reply actions  

I guess what I'm saying is that not dealing him now does diminish the return,

with the only possible exception being a flukey All-Star type of first half. The likeliest scenarios though have his value going down fairly rapidly from here on out.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 9:40 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

I’m not sure it really does. He still has 3 years left of arbitration right? if he were acquired now or in July teams would still be acquiring a guy they’d have for a couple of seasons. I get that he’d have more value now since teams would be acquiring him for longer but unless we think he’ll just collapse I don’t see his value dropping much over the first few months of the season – and certainly not enough to outweigh teams feeling a perceived need for a LH, cheap outfielder. It’s also not as if Blackmon and Wheeler are beating down the door to get playing time. Patience might pay off here.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 9:45 AM MST up reply actions  

What is an acceptable return?

You have said that the Prado deal does not match up (which I agree with).

Maybe I have missed it in a previous Rockpile, but what do you consider an appropriate return for Smith? Is there a specific player you value on another team that could work in trade, or in general terms is/are there prospect(s) you would expect in return?

by MileHighHawkeye on Dec 12, 2011 10:23 AM MST up reply actions  

I think I've said in the past I would want to trade Smith on a one for one for a Prado type.

or a slightly lesser version of Prado. I actually think this is somewhere near his actual on field value, because as Heltonfan has pointed out, the one serious flaw with Smith (can’t hit LHP’s) is a predictable and easily mitigated flaw.

I don’t think that the market has that same kind of value for him, however, at it’s a bit less than that, but because platoons have always been undervalued in baseball, I don’t see this fact of life suddenly changing in the next two years. So an acceptable deal to me could be something like Smith and a minor prospect for a decent position player at another position or a pitcher a bit better than Volsad. Salary considerations will complicate this obviously, but hopefully that gives you a general idea where I value him.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 10:41 AM MST up reply actions  

would you trade him for Volquez?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
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by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 10:49 AM MST up reply actions  

Eh I like Volquez and don’t live in Cin. I’d consider that trade.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
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by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 10:54 AM MST up reply actions  

S would I.

"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana

by Oldfoagie on Dec 12, 2011 10:55 AM MST up reply actions  

You've well addressed my concern here

IF we can get Prado, pay for him, AND get a Smith replacement AND still be able to afford the Kuroda-esque veteran we’re lusting after, sure, trade Smith.

But as it stands, Smith is a second-class baseball player because he can only hit 75% of pitchers – albeit very well. There is no WAY we’re going to land the kind of return we need to rationale moving Smith rather than just keep him and platoon him with the Gomes archetype.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 10:54 AM MST up reply actions  

Both were Salary Dumps...

Even though they still had one, two years Arbitration left…compliments of Judas Crane. Seth Smith is a poor-mans’ Pence, imo. Who hits from the left-side of the Dish.

by nt_eagle on Dec 12, 2011 9:40 AM MST up reply actions  

Cosart + Singleton was a pretty good return for a salary dump.

Though not everyone has the privilege of trading with Ruben Amaro, Jr.

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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 9:41 AM MST up reply actions  

Pence is a much more valuable property than Smith.

Had the Astros tried to trade him a year ago at this time, they would have likely received more than Cosart + Singleton, although the sum value of those two prospects was also better regarded then, so that’s a tricky statement for me to make with any certainty.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 9:46 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Salary dump or no, that was the highest value to be had for those OF's at the time.

It’s not like non-contending 2011 teams had no desire to have a Hunter Pence or a Michael Bourn for 2012, but the contender premium that the Braves and Phillies paid that Resolution is talking about actually didn’t amount to as much as a lot of people seem to think it would.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 9:44 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

I see what you’re saying about the ‘premium’ return but I don’t think the return now differs much than the return a few months from now. It’s entirely possible also that one of our million pitchers has a strong start and can be packaged.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
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by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 9:47 AM MST up reply actions  

Again with this "package" thing...

This argument goes to my point. Smith is not as valuable as we think he is.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 9:49 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

well lets just assume he’s not as valuable as we think currently or in a few months. What benefits does trading him now afford us other than clearing room to sign Cuddyer or Willingham?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

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by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 9:52 AM MST up reply actions  

Because since we have to assume Smith's trade value goes down,

Again, just basic market principles say it is the likeliest outcome, and because we don’t know if a Cuddyer or Willingham type will be available to us later.

So what the Rockies are apparently thinking is that Cuddyer + Colvin + Smith’s current trade return + their salary is going to be more valuable to the team than Smith + Gomes + their salary in 2013.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 10:09 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

you may be right about these options not being available to us later

here’s a list of FA outfielders after 2012 that are remotely attractive:
Michael Bourn
Andre Ethier
Josh Hamilton
Carlos Quentin
Luke Scott
B.J. Upton

Not sure if Bourn or Upton really fit the team (though Upton would be super young). No way I’d advocate signing Hamilton – he’ll crumble in the thin air. Ethier and Quentin I like mostly because they seem like they’d be pretty solid Helton replacements…

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
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by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 10:24 AM MST up reply actions  

I pretty much agree, there are decent players here,

but if we’re talking about who’s likely to sign for the range we’re looking at for Cuddyer, it’s a much trickier call. Especially given that a handful of large markets (LAD with a new owner, CHI, NYY, BOS) that are pretty much sitting out the current class should be back in the market next year

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 10:28 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

the real trick would have been setting it up so that we trade away Holliday and then sign him a year later as a FA.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
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by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 10:36 AM MST up reply actions  

Isn't Luke Scott a grade-A ****?

It's my blog!

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by biondino on Dec 12, 2011 10:52 AM MST up reply actions  

yes, yes he is.

Not that I’m going to source that with any links.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 10:53 AM MST up reply actions  

and just to make clear that I meant what I typed up there...

The Rockies are not trading Smith, just like they didn’t trade Iannetta, to help the team in 2012. They wouldn’t be signing Cuddyer primarily to help the team in 2012 (although they will spin it this way,) and this is why he’s likely more appealing to them than Willingham because there’s a thought he’s more likely to retain his offensive skill. It’s become pretty clear to me that their real target right now is 2013.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 10:25 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

and with a weak division

if something happens in 2012, then that’s just delicious gravy.

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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 10:27 AM MST up reply actions  

Like a season at Cracker Barrel!

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Dec 12, 2011 11:20 AM MST up reply actions  

All the more reason not to sign Cuddyer

If the target is 2013, why on earth would we go after a guy who doesn’t project very well now and will be half a win or so worse than that a year from now?

And the idea of going after a guy who might, if we’re feeling generous, project as a league-average player, because we’re afraid that next winter players of that caliber won’t be available… I just don’t know what to say to that. Cuddyer doesn’t fit here at all.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 10:42 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

The team has dumped a ton of salary already

They have to sign somebody this offseason just for general visibility.

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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 10:48 AM MST up reply actions  

That's a good point

Having money to burn is an odd situation for us, I hadn’t really thought about it that way.

But still, it doesn’t excuse the choice of player… If we really have a 3/27 contract to offer, let’s throw it at Coco Crisp, who offers all the offensive value of Cuddyer plus a win and a half extra on defense. Or let’s bring in Edwin Jackson. I just can’t believe that the best we can do is to spend $9-10 million a year on a 1.5 WAR guy.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 10:56 AM MST up reply actions  

Cuddyer is happening.

He’s our starting (insert position here) next year on Opening Day.

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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 10:59 AM MST up reply actions  

if we sign Cuddyer though, do we have enough $$ left for Fielder?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 11:02 AM MST up reply actions  

here

I videotaped a response to the Cuddyer signing

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 11:11 AM MST up reply actions  

That's funny

So did I

Avalance 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.

by Thnikkaman on Dec 12, 2011 11:40 AM MST up reply actions   2 recs

hahaha

that poor cat

arenado: it's Rockie for future

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by papality on Dec 12, 2011 11:45 AM MST up reply actions  

lol it was. well, this time it’s about a signing that isn’t the best but isn’t the worst. Last time I think it was because our season/team imploded.

Progress!!

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 12:04 PM MST up reply actions  

You're right

I hate that you’re right.

HATE.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 10:56 AM MST up reply actions  

Despite my antagonism at times, I tend to agree with you generally on your projections,

I’m biased with Cuddyer specifically, and I was before the Rockies started expressing their interest, so I don’t agree here, on pseudo-analytical grounds for his offense. I’m aware that I’m on shakier ground with the evidence though, so I can just say that we’ll see.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 10:50 AM MST up reply actions  

@Ken_Rosenthal

Sources: #Rockes making “aggressive push” for Cuddyer. Can play 3B, LF, 1B. Believed to be seeking 3 yrs, $30M. #Twins also in mix. #MLB

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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 10:52 AM MST up reply actions  

Rewritten:
Sources: #Rockes making "aggressive push" for Cuddyer. Enjoys many positions. Can play 3B, LF, 1B. Believed to be seeking 3 yrs, $30M. #Twins also in mix. #MLB

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 10:53 AM MST up reply actions  

check his ADR at 1B

he sucks there too

it’s like a better batting, inexplicably WORSE fielding Wigginton.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 10:56 AM MST up reply actions  

I said this the other day, but it's hard to field with torn knee ligaments.

The thing we need to do is make sure he says something when he’s hurt. I really doubt his defense is as disastrous as his ADR.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 11:02 AM MST up reply actions  

Having had torn knee ligaments is not a point in his favor.

It can’t be. Maybe it means he’s 3-4 runs better in the field (if healthy) than the projections say, but it also means that he has a higher chance of getting re-injured and going on the DL… there’s just no way that an injury like that is a net positive.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 11:07 AM MST up reply actions  

If a pitcher spends a year throwing hurt

and has terrible numbers that year, gets TJ surgery and comes back pitching much better, the surgery is a net positive, no? The pitcher is better with the surgery than without, and if the numbers fit the timeline and back up that the injury, not the skill level was to blame for the poor showing, you have to consider that, right?

The injury is certainly not a net positive, but the surgery to repair said injury could be.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 11:16 AM MST up reply actions  

Well, a pitcher post-TJ is still a big injury risk

I think the fallacy here is that once a player has had surgery, the problem is gone. It’s not. The risk factors are still there…. if he’s had knee problems before, he’s got an increased likelihood of having them again. Particularly since this isn’t a young player we’re talking about.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 11:24 AM MST up reply actions  

Sure, I'm not saying that it's not a risk.

I think you’re being fairly eloquent on that point right now, but your statement above makes it seem that it’s an absolute positive that he’s as bad a defender as his cumulative defensive stats (including that playing through pain season in 2010) suggest. I think it’s weird that you’re accusing me of engaging in the fallacy here.

Also, he’s not young, but he’s also not too old for surgeries of this type to have a good chance of recovery.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 11:34 AM MST up reply actions  

Also...

Even if we give Cuddyer the benefit of doubt on the injury by ignoring his 2010 offensive numbers and bumping up his defensive projection by three runs, he still only projects at league average. And he’s still turning 33 in March, no amount of hand-waving can change that. ;)

I’m trying to see the upside here… I want to, because it’s looking more and more like this is actually going to happen. But I can’t see it. I’d be really surprised if Cuddyer was worth more than 5 WAR over the next three years.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 11:37 AM MST up reply actions  

That's about the break even point, right?

5 WAR would be worth $29 million. I think I was in favor of signing him for up $27M, at $30M I’m sketchy, so I guess that’s about what I’m assuming.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 11:40 AM MST up reply actions  

Breakeven certainly isn't MISERABLE

But if we could hypothetically get a corner OF platoon for a profit, why wouldn’t we?

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 11:44 AM MST up reply actions  

5 WAR would be $36 million

I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face: this $5m/win assumption is nonsense.

And I don’t think I’ve posted this before, so here’s NEIFI’s year-by-year forecast for him:
2012: 1.30 WAR
2013: 0.72 WAR
2014: 0.04 WAR
Total 2.06

The break-even point would be 4 WAR… I said 5 WAR above because I don’t think paying the market rate is anything a team should aspire to…

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 11:44 AM MST up reply actions  

2.06 WAR for three seasons? That seems like an astronomically low projection.

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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 11:47 AM MST up reply actions  

I get how harsh over-32 players rate in projections

but yeesh. That’s just plain ugly.

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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 11:49 AM MST up reply actions  

Well...

Obviously, the biggest variable in this is Cuddyer’s 2012 projection. But if we take the name Michael Cuddyer out of it, and if I told you that a player projecting at 1.3 WAR at age 33 is projected for 0.76 WAR over the remainder of his career after that age-33 season, would you find it strange? Probably not, right? Cuddyer’s at the age now when mediocre players just disappear, never to be heard from again,

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 11:52 AM MST up reply actions  

his 2008 and 2010 certainly give weight to the argument that at least one of three seasons will be entirely lost.

I can definitely see a scenario where we get < 3WAR total out of Cuddyer over a 3 year period.

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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 11:58 AM MST up reply actions  

Yep

And he wasn’t even that old in his previous down years… now there’s a very real chance that a) at least 2 of these next three years will be clunkers and b) the age 33-35 clunkers will be worse than the age 29 and 31 ones (in other words, he might actually slip below replacement level).

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:04 PM MST up reply actions  

:(

I was on the “sign Cuddyer because we have to sign someone and at least he’ll be a decent bat” wagon, but now I’m just depressed.

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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 12:05 PM MST up reply actions  

If it makes you feel better

NEIFI projected Cuddyer to only post a 0.29 WAR for this season.

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 1:36 PM MST up reply actions  

he'll be 33 before opening day

and has significant knee troubles

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by papality on Dec 12, 2011 11:49 AM MST up reply actions  

Thanks, I actually feel much better about Cuddyer now,

I do think NEIFI’s wrong about him. I think the Rockies should get at least 4 WAR out of this.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 11:49 AM MST up reply actions  

If you look at the numbers pre-injury

he’s probably not 3-4 runs better in the field. He’s so, so slow to react in the OF (that is a personal observation from having watched him in TF for the last two years).

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 11:16 AM MST up reply actions  

it's a SS, so that's my bad

But it does fit with his “not a good fielder” persona

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 11:20 AM MST up reply actions  

More of what we already know ...
The Twins have been in contact with Josh Willingham’s agents Monday, reports Darren Wolfson of ESPN 1500.
A deal is not close, according to Wolfson, who writes that the Twins are waiting for Michael Cuddyer’s decision first. Cuddyer has a three-year, $25 million contract offer from the Twins but is being courted heavily by the Rockies. Willingham will probably come cheaper, is better offensively, and would allow the Twins to net a pair of draft picks when Cuddyer signs elsewhere, but Minnesota prefers the incumbent because he’s a strong locker room presence and offers a bit of defensive versatility (though he’s below average at alternate positions). Stay tuned.

by Traindogger on Dec 12, 2011 1:02 PM MST up reply actions  

Cuddyer was revalued from Type A status, right?

It won’t cost us a pick to sign him.

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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 1:48 PM MST up reply actions  

Yet, teh other night, you said they we should trade Arenado.

No freaking way

69 today, 68 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 8:29 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Pretty sure either Cuddyer or Willingham would be playing left field. Didn’t I read earlier this offseason that CarGo’s going to play right almost exclusively, just like he did through the end of last season?

"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton

by Franchise26 on Dec 12, 2011 8:00 AM MST reply actions  

unless an acquisition changes things

That’s how I’ve read it at least.

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by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 8:08 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

yeahhhhh I don't believe a word that comes out of Tracy's mouth.

Plus, I edited it to say “corner OF slot”.

It doesn’t really matter. If Cargo plays RF, Smith should play LF.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 8:09 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

I'd rather have Cargo's range in LF.

"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana

by Oldfoagie on Dec 12, 2011 11:11 AM MST up reply actions  

Agreed

The point is more Smith + Cargo = LF + RF, in no particular order

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 11:21 AM MST up reply actions  

How would you write this article if you were told DO'D is not interested in Cuddyer/Willingham?

He is interested in Prado (this year’s Michael Young) or, MORE IMPORTANTLY, he will spend the $$$ on PITCHING.

That is all. Stop worrying about Cuddyer/Willingham because, as you say, all that does is add a few inches to the hill. DO’D is not going there.

by RoxSox on Dec 12, 2011 8:02 AM MST reply actions  

Prado is 28, and will make about $7-8M

Michael Young was 34 last off-season, and made about $17M this year.

Prado is capable of playing average to good defense at 2B and 3B. Young has demonstrated that he is not.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 8:05 AM MST up reply actions  

Prado should be at $4.5MM, or thereabouts. 2013 might push the $7MM threshold.

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Dec 12, 2011 8:36 AM MST up reply actions  

Then your thesis is exactly correct....

And we should scream from the mountain tops to spend money on pitching first, and settle for a platoon RH bat. (Or minor league Rox such as Wheeler might be the guy.)

I hope that the Denver Beat and Tiger Beat are just speculating IF we go down this path, then these are the guys……

I guess our response is: Don’t go down that path.

by RoxSox on Dec 12, 2011 10:21 AM MST up reply actions  

I'm 98% with you

the 2% is that I don’t see platooning Smith as “settling”. I find it maximizing the offensive potential of one defensive position.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 10:58 AM MST up reply actions  

Will "Bustah" Rhymes ...

In effect.

The Tigers have non-tendered Willy Rhymes.
Rhymes, 28, batted just .235/.323/.271 with three extra-base hits in 99 plate appearances this year for Detroit. He’s now a free agent and can sign with any team.

His 2010 was less awful …

by Traindogger on Dec 12, 2011 12:12 PM MST up reply actions  

He no longer has anyone in check.

Avalance 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.

by Thnikkaman on Dec 12, 2011 12:26 PM MST up reply actions  

We need production to follow/protect our 3-4 hitters. Plain and Simple. We need another semi-feared bat in the 5 hole.

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 8:03 AM MST reply actions  

At the same time, I say wait til next year to see if there is a move that boosts us more than what one of these guys will do, not in favor of Cuddy or Willi. I say continue with the Great Marginal Arms Race

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 8:05 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

A Smith/Gomes platoon does that

Evner if they’re not “feared” they’d drive in a lot of runs.

by webgem14 on Dec 12, 2011 8:06 AM MST up reply actions  

Then I am fine with that but there needs to be production and a lot of it from that 5 hole. 20 HRS and 80 RBI’s doesn’t count in my book. We need the 3rd guy in our lineup that can pop out 30 hrs or at least 25 while driving in Cargo and Tulo when they are on base.

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 8:08 AM MST up reply actions  

What player capable of that is really available?

Willingham has done it exactly zero times. Cuddyer has also done it once, and that was in 2009.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 8:15 AM MST up reply actions  

Just saying

Cuddyer OPS + 2009: 124
Cuddyer OPS + 2011: 121

Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton

by MattBerger on Dec 12, 2011 8:16 AM MST up reply actions  

where’s 2010 on that list?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
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by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 8:51 AM MST up reply actions  

you shut up.

Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.

by frightened inmate #2 on Dec 12, 2011 9:22 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Cuddyer v. RHP, last four seasons

wRC+: 87, 112, 90, 101. Not quite a RH Smith, but somewhat similar to Hawpe v. LHP from 2007-2010: 65, 109, 94, 112.

It’s hard to imagine that Cuddyer will improve and find consistency v. RHP going forward. And, what happens when Cuddyer stops mashing lefties, like when Hawpe stopped mashing righties? 88 and 87 wRC+ v. RHP in 2010 and 2011.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 9:42 AM MST up reply actions  

I think Willingham has hit 25+ HR’s twice in a season I thought. And I don’t think anybody is gonna hit too many bombs in Target field. Place is huge and not much of a jet stream.

Not saying there is one available. But we need more production our of our 5 and 6 holes if we are gonna win. Todd is almost down to doubles and singles. He did alrI don’t have a solution because I am not sure Willingham or Cuddyer is the solution.

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 8:21 AM MST up reply actions  

Willingham had a K% of 26.6% last year. Ugh.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 8:29 AM MST up reply actions  

might as well sign Mark Reynolds

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 8:31 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Adam Dunn!!!!

Talk about getting something cheaply.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 8:33 AM MST up reply actions  

yeah he can play the OF right?

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 8:34 AM MST up reply actions  

Target is still pretty favorable to LF

339 to the wall in left, 377 in left center. The wall is not extraordinarily high. Cuddyer does all of his damage pulling the ball. The wind is pretty neutral; sometimes it swirls in the stadium.

Cuddyer is no victim of the stadium.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 8:33 AM MST up reply actions  

Agreed on both Willingham & Cuddyer

Too expensive for platoon players, don’t add enough (if anything) to the production obtainanable at lower cost from Smith + platoon partner.

Even if Smith brings a Prado-level IF to plug the 2B hole, the remaining LH outfielder (Blackmon or Wheeler or, if he recovers to 2010 level, Colvin) can STILL be paired with a RH platoon partner for far less money than Willingham or Cuddyer will cost. And that money can be spent on pitching.

I see from Renck’s article today that Spilly would come back to be the platoon partner for less money than he’d get in arbitration. No thank you. Time to turn that page.

by maris61 on Dec 12, 2011 8:04 AM MST reply actions  

Interesting guess at the substance taken by Braun

at Baseball Musings. A legal supplement that can convert into testosterone inside the body called DHEA.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 8:08 AM MST reply actions  

Should have made a strong run at a legitimate RH-hitting OF a couple of years ago

and kept Smith in the 4th OF/late-inning PH role in which he excelled. At that time, a guy like Willingham might have been the key piece that puts you squarely in contention – in which case, you gladly overpay a bit. Now that the landscape has changed, I agree with the article that it makes less sense.

by Northsider1964 on Dec 12, 2011 8:13 AM MST reply actions  

What OF?

"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides

by TomCat009 on Dec 12, 2011 10:34 AM MST up reply actions  

I agree with you here, AMart...

I have a feeling of bleh when these two names are bandied about. I wonder if a trade for Carlos Quentin would be worth it? — since the White Sox are in rebuild mode.

by nkrause on Dec 12, 2011 8:17 AM MST reply actions  

Nevermind...

still doesn’t fill the black holes that we have at 2nd or 3rd. Gordon Beckham, anyone?

by nkrause on Dec 12, 2011 8:25 AM MST up reply actions  

Your ManCrush for Gordo is duly noted...

And why would the ChiSox deal a First Round Draft Pick that still has Three Years left ’till Free Agency? Especially since they are now re-building? Do you see what they want for Danks (Two of either Banuelos, Betances, and Montero)?

by nt_eagle on Dec 12, 2011 8:36 AM MST up reply actions  

because he sucks

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 8:47 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

pwned

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 8:52 AM MST up reply actions  

I mean, he's not horrid as Stewart was

But his decline would be their motivation for moving him, if they did

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 8:59 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

????

“(you know, the handpicked Tulo team)” Andrew, would you mind explaining this statement you made……….or would we find your answer obvious? Meaning exactly, what it says………………WOW!!!!!

by roxtalk on Dec 12, 2011 8:39 AM MST reply actions  

Andrew and I have talked about this one

it refers to the guys that Tulo invites to work out with him during the offseason.

Last season, it was Nolan Arenado and Tim Wheeler — both enjoy breakout seasons in the minors.

This year, it’s Nolan Arenado, Dexter Fowler, and Josh Rutledge. Tulo is basically handpicking guys from the minors and taking him under his wing, especially infielders.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 8:43 AM MST up reply actions  

didn't work for Stewart...

Tulo and Giambi need to invite DO’D too to get him on the same page.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 8:44 AM MST up reply actions  

That's because Stewart was busy playing Modern Warfare 3 instead of working out

C’mon, Rox Girl. Get with the program.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 8:45 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Got what he deserved >:[

A little rudeness and disrespect can elevate a meaningless interaction to a battle of wills and add drama to an otherwise dull day.

Mile High Hockey : Where B- is different than C+

by A.J. Haefele on Dec 12, 2011 4:55 PM MST up reply actions  

lsn't Glambl lnvolved ln that also?


In all things, it is better to hope than despair.

by butterfly on Dec 12, 2011 9:31 AM MST up reply actions  

l wasn't belng snarky, just thought l read somewhere that Glambl and Tulo were

havlng a tralnlng camp at Nevada. Actually there was qulte a dlscusslon at a Chrlstmas party l attended after the Braun news broke. One man even trled to make the connectlon of Tulo- belng close frlends of Braun and Glambl and Peds. ..


In all things, it is better to hope than despair.

by butterfly on Dec 12, 2011 9:49 AM MST up reply actions  

you're absolutely correct

Giambi and Tulo are doing this together.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 9:49 AM MST up reply actions  

watch your modifiers, man!

Giambi and Tulo are conducting workouts in Nevada together.

Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.

by frightened inmate #2 on Dec 12, 2011 9:52 AM MST up reply actions  

as Muzia asserts, that is not a blind claim, but actually based on well publicized facts

No speculation involved

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 8:48 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

milb.com

Posted a Q&A with Tim Wheeler today.. too hard for me to link on mobile

"Don't give up, don't ever give up" - Jim Valvano

by nodakroxfan on Dec 12, 2011 8:45 AM MST via mobile reply actions  

ATTN: Thnikkman
MiLB.com: Any particular selections for at-bat music?

Wheeler: I switched a couple of times last year. I’m not sure about next year, I couldn’t tell you — I’ll have to wait to next year. I used You Might Die Trying by The Dave Matthews Band, and in the past I’ve used the song The Fire by The Roots.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 9:01 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Well

The chances of ever seeing him at Coors just became zero. Does he not know the playlist there only consists of light christian rock and annoying Latin beeping sounds.

by mkorpal on Dec 12, 2011 9:04 AM MST up reply actions  

Justin Bieber would like a word

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 9:10 AM MST up reply actions  

Can I

Just lump that in with the annoying Latin beeping sounds.

by mkorpal on Dec 12, 2011 9:15 AM MST up reply actions  

aaaand this is the comment of the day. It’s funny and it’s true – funny and true.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 9:34 AM MST up reply actions  

flec'd it

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Dec 12, 2011 9:39 AM MST up reply actions  

Then you would not have enjoyed

attending the Univ. of Arizona (or probably anywhere) in the late 90s. Completely unavoidable, regardless of setting.

by Teekalong on Dec 12, 2011 12:01 PM MST up reply actions  

So would BBD.

Avalance 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.

by Thnikkaman on Dec 12, 2011 9:56 AM MST up reply actions  

I think you've taken like 2 players and turned that into the entire history of Rockies At Bat Music

Seth Smith had the only Christian song last season, with “Manifesto” by The City Harmonic. Cargo had “Abusadora” by Wisin and Yandel, so there’s your beeping sounds…

Yep, that adds up to ~40.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 9:27 AM MST up reply actions  

It was a joke

You know, that thing people sometimes tell others to make them laugh.

by mkorpal on Dec 12, 2011 9:48 AM MST up reply actions  

oh

could’ve fooled me!

/tapdance

Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 9:50 AM MST up reply actions  

Woot

Avalance 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.

by Thnikkaman on Dec 12, 2011 9:55 AM MST up reply actions  

Damn it, he may be a pipe dream

but, dreams sometimes do come true. give us Beltran.

by mkorpal on Dec 12, 2011 8:58 AM MST reply actions  

So.....who's going to be playing 3rd again?

Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.

by frightened inmate #2 on Dec 12, 2011 9:13 AM MST reply actions  

Who?

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 9:16 AM MST up reply actions  

I Don't Know..

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Dec 12, 2011 9:31 AM MST up reply actions  

huh....

you guys thought I was joking.

Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.

by frightened inmate #2 on Dec 12, 2011 9:32 AM MST up reply actions  

My answer is the same either way....

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Dec 12, 2011 9:40 AM MST up reply actions  

fair nuff.

Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.

by frightened inmate #2 on Dec 12, 2011 9:40 AM MST up reply actions  

Not huh. HU

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 9:42 AM MST up reply actions  

Christopher.Nelson

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 9:48 AM MST up reply actions  

also

if keppinger is non tendered he conceivably could man 3b until Arenado arrives at which point he’d be a good utility inf

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 9:50 AM MST up reply actions  

Arenado=Baseball Tebow

Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.

by frightened inmate #2 on Dec 12, 2011 9:53 AM MST up reply actions  

say it louder!

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 9:54 AM MST up reply actions  

Good article ...

I agree with the general premise that Cuddyer/Willingham are marginal improvements to a hole we don’t have. While Willingham is certainly more steady with the bat and avoids the splits that plague Smith, he isn’t an improvement in the OF and he is likely too pricey on a 3yr deal at age 32-35. Basically the same with Cuddyer, with more emphasis on the fact that he isn’t good at any one position on the diamond.

The problem is that every single one of our other candidates (Blackmon/Wheeler/Colvin – all lefthanded hitters) for RF (or LF if Cargo is going to man RF) have the same issue with LH pitching (I am having difficulty finding career stat splits for minor leaguers … anyone?). This is why the trade for Colvin is so puzzling … he is just another of many we have already in the system. Give me a platoon partner for Smith to play 25% of the time against RH pitching and yeah, I’m happy.

Problem is, Smith is one of our few expendable pieces given the influx of LH OFers on the roster. And we do have a hole at 2nd/3rd. So I can see why he is being dangled. I mean … would we really complain if one (or all) of Blackmon/Wheeler/Colvin were thrown to the wolves in LF only against RH pitching? At least they can field the position and one of them might just be ready/able to contribute in that role.

However, that is also why I think Wheeler/Blackmon are expendable – they profile to have the very same splits that Smith has, and their value may never be higher. I am not sold on either as even an average regular, though I do hold out some hope for Wheeler, but am also scared of his home/road splits – Tulsa being very a favorable hitting environment. The advantage to these guys, obviously, is that they are cheaper than Smith who is going to see his salary increase. And like I said, their value will probably never be higher.

So yeah, if we can fill at least one hole on the IF without trading Smith, and we can find a RH platoon partner at a reasonable cost (Jerry Hairston?), then I am all for it. Use the money saved to get pitching – I for one, would like to see Edwin Jackson/Wandy Rodriguez/Ervin Santana/one of the Miami pitchers or Volquez. And I am okay with trading Wheeler and/or Blackmon if that is what it takes.

by Traindogger on Dec 12, 2011 10:01 AM MST reply actions  

ON With the Arms Race!

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 10:10 AM MST up reply actions  

ZiPS on Willingham:

From Fangraphs chat with Dan Szymborski:

Comment From Big MikeBig Mike:
Willingham hit 29 HR with Oakland in 2011. If he signs in Colorado?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Willingham at 20 in 408 AB in Oakland in 2012, 25 in 410 in Colorado.

by Traindogger on Dec 12, 2011 2:20 PM MST up reply actions  

RMN& RG?...

I’ve wanted better defense which has been on the decline scince 2009 here. I’m not a fan of the TTO batting style. My biggest problems with CDI were behind the plate. I thought he was costing our pitchers. I want the Rox as a team to take the base hit that’s presented to them instead of trying to jack impossible to hit out pitches. I’m not saying walks aren’t valuble. They are essential for getting people on base. The reason you’re up there though is to knock in runs. While it is possible to walk in a run; you won’t walk in two in the same AB.

You are not going to walk in the Runner from second when a base hit can.I’m not sure we targeted the right people from the gitgo. I’m not impressed withe fall haul of pitchers. We seem to be guilty of looking for set types instead of having some variety. Matzek being a hybrid Marshall pitcher is more the exception. His pitches will arrive from different angles than most people are used to seeing which I think explains both his high K and BB rates partially.

I liked the Met’s Murphy’s Bat better than Prado because of how he produced in Citi Field gave me hope he’d produce in Petco and Dodger stadium and whatever the stadium will be called in SF next week. But his knees and his defense at 2b made me pull for Prado. I wanted Headley to fill in for Nolan and to eventually replace Todd He also could if need be platoon in the OF.At this point if we can’t get a reasonable bat for 2b I’d rather have Nelson and Herrea’s steady glove out there than a tin glove that might smack seven homers instead of three.I’d rather let Pacheco and JD battle it out for 3b then spend the money for something marginally better.I’d rather admit our playoff hopes are on hold this year and slip a little extra money in the stocking stuffers for those whose chances are are going to suffer otherwise.

"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana

by Oldfoagie on Dec 12, 2011 10:21 AM MST reply actions  

100% agree about the OF defense

While Cargo is solid, Dex’s defense is average (though there is seemingly great potential). This is what would have made Pagan and his above average defense at all three spots such an attractive trade candidate. If one of the prospects blossomed, he becomes an (expensive, but) talented fourth OF or trade chip.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 10:38 AM MST up reply actions  

With our collection of ground ball pitchers I'm nervous about accepting less defense at 2b for a marginally better bat,

"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana

by Oldfoagie on Dec 12, 2011 10:41 AM MST up reply actions  

Aramis Ramirez appears to be gone

@ESPNChiCubs: Breaking news ; MLB source tells ESPN CHICAGO A Ramierz signed a 3 yr deal with Brewers pending physical.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 10:40 AM MST reply actions  

Does this mean that McGehee is available?

69 today, 68 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 10:47 AM MST up reply actions  

Probably not untill Braun serves his suspension.

"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana

by Oldfoagie on Dec 12, 2011 10:49 AM MST up reply actions  

Phillies announce trade of OF Ben Francisco to Toronto for LHP Frank Gailey.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 10:49 AM MST reply actions  

Platoon

Why can’t Cuddyer and Smith platoon together? Seems like it would give the Rockies the best chance to win.

by DesertTurtle on Dec 12, 2011 10:56 AM MST reply actions  

sorry, caps lock unintended

It's my blog!

PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you

by biondino on Dec 12, 2011 10:58 AM MST up reply actions  

:X

I’m sure Tracy can fit him somewhere in the lineup ;)

by DesertTurtle on Dec 12, 2011 10:58 AM MST up reply actions  

It would, and I think there could be enough AB's to be had by both with Helton declining and a pit of wonders at third base

Not saying that we’d want to play Cuddyer there often, but against weaker SP’s it could make sense. The two salaries might not fit in the Rockies budget, however, if they want to add more pitching as well.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 10:58 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

pit of wonders at third base

What a marvelous phrase.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 11:01 AM MST up reply actions  

That's kinda saying the Angels got Pujols because the Cards didn't offer "Earth and Water"

"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana

by Oldfoagie on Dec 12, 2011 11:21 AM MST up reply actions  

Do we know who we got from Philly in the trade for Wiggy?

69 today, 68 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 11:00 AM MST reply actions  

We didnt trade them Alan Johsnon

69 today, 68 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 11:04 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Not unless Wiggy meets their goals for them. We might get nothing!

"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana

by Oldfoagie on Dec 12, 2011 11:02 AM MST up reply actions  

it will probably be cash

But there is still 5 months left before a ptbnl has to be named

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 11:02 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Didn't know we had to wait 5 months.

We might get a scrub from A ball.

69 today, 68 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 11:05 AM MST up reply actions  

Yeah.

we traded Wigginton.

Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.

by frightened inmate #2 on Dec 12, 2011 11:15 AM MST up reply actions  

if we don't get anything back at all

we’ll still have won the trade

arenado: it's Rockie for future

PRMLB Arizona Diamondbacks GM

by papality on Dec 12, 2011 11:16 AM MST up reply actions  

what if the ptbnl is Ty Wigginton?

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 11:16 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Jose Lopez!

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 11:42 AM MST up reply actions  

He could strike out, ground out and fly out

That’s versatility right there….

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Dec 12, 2011 11:43 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Is that referred to as a golden chapeaux?

Avalance 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.

by Thnikkaman on Dec 12, 2011 11:44 AM MST up reply actions  

hey man I’m just the messenger

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 11:21 AM MST up reply actions  

Then I say we post a hit man

"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana

by Oldfoagie on Dec 12, 2011 11:18 AM MST up reply actions  

we don't have to

We have six months to select a player from the pre-approved list. It can be before that, as it was with Street. But there’s no buzz on players, and we wouldn’t be waiting to see how that list of players perform in the offseason. So it’ll likely be cash. Or already has been.

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 11:25 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

@Renck
Phillies trade of Francisco opens up poential landing spot for Spilborghs. Phils have liked Spilborghs for a few years as RH bat off bench

Who else can we give to the phillies?

by zmiko on Dec 12, 2011 11:26 AM MST reply actions  

Jim Tracy

2011 - not even light can escape

by Rosenort on Dec 12, 2011 11:27 AM MST up reply actions   1 recs

THIS

69 today, 68 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 11:28 AM MST up reply actions  

it would be worth it.

They wouldnt be here

69 today, 68 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 11:30 AM MST up reply actions  

Would Spilly be a trade or a FA signing?

69 today, 68 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 11:28 AM MST up reply actions  

he's a non-tender candidate

so it could be either at this point

arenado: it's Rockie for future

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by papality on Dec 12, 2011 11:29 AM MST up reply actions  

Today's the drop-dead date on an offer to Spilly

So why would the Phillies offer anything for him? Tomorrow he’s theirs for the taking.

by Northsider1964 on Dec 12, 2011 11:30 AM MST up reply actions  

Other teams might be quietly interested

and the Phils might prefer to just trade for him and work out tendering a contract rather than bidding for his services.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 11:35 AM MST up reply actions  

In theory, yes

But I cannot imagine the Phils being too concerned about getting shut out of the red-hot Ryan Spilbourghs market.

by Northsider1964 on Dec 12, 2011 11:38 AM MST up reply actions  

Oh, I agree.

You just asked why, so I figured I’d throw that out there.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 11:40 AM MST up reply actions  

We could" improve" their defense at SS by sending EY2

"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana

by Oldfoagie on Dec 12, 2011 11:29 AM MST up reply actions  

Nice writeup Andrew

I don’t agree with your conclusion though. I’ll probably have to throw a fanpost together tomorrow to accurately organize my thoughts and argue the other side because I think a Cuddyer could significantly improve this offense (especially if Tracy is still the manager).

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 11:45 AM MST reply actions  

See, that's the damn wrench in any plan

Stupid Jim Tracy won’t play the team optimally, so what’s the point of even trying to optimize this? I feel like we all have great ideas, but we’re dealing with an Art Howe vs Billy Beane RE: Scott Hatteburg situation here.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 11:47 AM MST up reply actions   2 recs

Sad but true

I was really digging into the 2011 numbers last night and your point about “the best players should play” really hit home. I mean I realized it was basd from watching it all year but i think the hard numbers (games played/PA"s allowed from terrible players) it’s even worse than I thought – And some of it (certainly not all though) could have been avoided.

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 11:51 AM MST up reply actions  

that's so sad :(


In all things, it is better to hope than despair.

by butterfly on Dec 12, 2011 12:02 PM MST up reply actions  

but, but MATCHUPZZZ

The off-season sucks.
That is all.

by DAWNMARIE01 on Dec 12, 2011 12:08 PM MST up reply actions  

Thoughts on the Price for Aramis Ramirez?

3 years in neighborhood of $34 million.

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 11:58 AM MST reply actions  

Bargain.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 11:59 AM MST up reply actions  

I think its a decent deal. When I think about Cuddyer at $10 and Aram at $11/12 I think Dang…..rather have A Ram

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 12:05 PM MST up reply actions  

It's definitely going to be interesting three years from now

to see which of the three of Ramirez/Cuddyer/Willingham looks best in hindsight.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 12:06 PM MST up reply actions  

Because the next thing is…is that we rush Arenado too much because we had a hole to fill

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 12:08 PM MST up reply actions  

I actually think Rosario's a greater risk of being rushed

I don’t know if a player’s level the season before has as much to do with a player being rushed as the skills that they currently have. Arenado’s high contact skills suggest to me that he’d be able to adjust and continue to grow at the MLB level, Rosario’s don’t.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 12:11 PM MST up reply actions  

I’m not too worried about Arenado, I think the kid can flat out ‘ball’ and has ‘it’ just figures that it would happen to the Rockies

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 12:14 PM MST up reply actions  

I think it goes without saying

That NEIFI thinks 3/35 or whatever for A-Ram is all kinds of awful. He’s basically exactly the same player as Cuddyer (same offensive value, and an abominable defensive 3B isn’t any more valuable defensively than a bad corner OF).

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:11 PM MST up reply actions  

Don't take this the wrong way

But NEIFI is awfully depressing

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:13 PM MST up reply actions  

all players suck

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 12:16 PM MST via mobile up reply actions   2 recs

Accept A certain player

Avalance 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.

by Thnikkaman on Dec 12, 2011 12:27 PM MST up reply actions  

Spelling fail

Except

Avalance 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.

by Thnikkaman on Dec 12, 2011 12:28 PM MST up reply actions  

Depressing?

Yep, I know what you mean… all I can say in defense is that if you add up all the players’ projections, weighted by projected MLB playing time, they come out at league average or a hair above… so there’s no grounds for calling NEIFI pessimistic. It just illustrates how we tend to overrate players when we don’t have a projection system at our disposal…

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:26 PM MST up reply actions  

What was Berkman projected at in 2011?

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 12:29 PM MST up reply actions  

I think he was like 2.2 or something.

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:36 PM MST up reply actions  

Berkman was projected at 3.0 WAR last year

NEIFI doesn’t hate all old players, but guys over 35 really do have to have an outstanding performance record to escape its wrath.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 1:02 PM MST up reply actions  

I think overall it's pretty fair

I think it still underpredicts some players though the real disappointments are usually from injury. For instance, last year I think NEIFI predicted Mauer to be the second best player in baseball. However his got hurt and his season was a disaster. For the total WAR in MLB to stack up with the total WAR of NEIFI, all the lost WAR from unpredicable injuries like a Mauer or Hanley Ramirez has to go somewhere.

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:34 PM MST up reply actions  

Wow

I am having major issues formulating sentences today.

/sigh

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Mauer, HRam, etc.

Right… that’s why the pre-season projections should come out slightly above average in the aggregate… and they do.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:42 PM MST up reply actions  

So if I understand NEIFI right, Mauer will probably be under projected now because NEIFI will hate his 2011 season?

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 1:08 PM MST up reply actions  

Mauer projects at 4.1 WAR

I’ll let you judge for yourself whether that’s underprojecting him or not. But his 2011 season has most certainly reduced all reasonable expectations of him.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 1:09 PM MST up reply actions  

I actually think the opposite is also true, though

certain players get overrated and others underrated because of a projection system.

I think a savvy team will try to identify two types of bargains:

1) players with solid projections that aren’t being properly valued by the market
2) players that are getting undervalued because of their projections

I think SABRmetrics focuses on the one to the complete disregard of the other. I think the better scouting/development teams take the opposite approach. I think a balance between the two approaches could be found, though.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 12:37 PM MST up reply actions  

I'd be picking and choosing to say I'd trust that and not Cuddyer,

Which is exactly what I’m doing. Ramirez’s injuries for some reason suggest more to be worried about to me.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 12:15 PM MST up reply actions  

And yet ...

ARam put up wRC+ of 133 in 2011 (higher than any Cuddyer season), and never below 124 save for 2010. But yeah, he’s a butcher at 3rd … but I really don’t see Cuddyer being any better at any position.

by Traindogger on Dec 12, 2011 12:17 PM MST up reply actions  

Lance Berkman was suppose to be a butcher in the OF for STL and really wasn’t suppose to do very much at the plate #Toughtoproject

Adam Dunn was a staple of consistency for 8 straight years (of 35 HR or more and 92RBI or more) and straight fell off a table #Tough to Project

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 12:19 PM MST up reply actions  

Why does NEIFI hate it?

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 12:17 PM MST up reply actions  

Why?

Because A-Ram is getting old, was awful in 2010, and is the worst defensive 3B in baseball.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:18 PM MST up reply actions  

.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 12:19 PM MST up reply actions  

Trust me

You won’t

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:22 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

I'm not.

Looking at that makes my eyes hurt.

The off-season sucks.
That is all.

by DAWNMARIE01 on Dec 12, 2011 12:22 PM MST up reply actions  

BANNED

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=897jlnmTYqE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uQ76qrlK78

68 today, 67 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 12:21 PM MST up reply actions  

You don't get to ban people.

I do.

And RG does.

And those other people at the bottom of the page.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 3:07 PM MST up reply actions  

well.... I guess he still can

/awaits banning from Russ because Russ is a smartass like that

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 3:32 PM MST up reply actions  

I think we warned himself once

and then Grant warned him stating his disquiet with the fact that Russ was warning himself.

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 3:36 PM MST up reply actions  

I know

68 today, 67 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 3:22 PM MST up reply actions  

You go, Amart.

I thought 2011 sucked pretty bad. I have nothing to add to that.

by prettyinpurple on Dec 12, 2011 3:22 PM MST up reply actions  

Damn you Muzia! Damn you all to hell!!

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
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by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 3:03 PM MST up reply actions  

Does NEIFI hate all players one they get to 35?

I can’t remember for sure but didn’t it predict a negative WAR for Helton this season?

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:21 PM MST up reply actions  

NEIFI projected 0.8 WAR for Helton this year

But of course, it substantially overestimated him in 2010, you have to remember that too…

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:40 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm pretty sure I remember seeing a negative WAR projected for Helton this season

(and I usually have a pretty good memory about stuff like this)

/It probably overpredicted everyone else on the Rockies that wasn’t Tulo though so there is that I guess.

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:48 PM MST up reply actions  

That may have been a previous version of NEIFI

If I remember right, I changed the aging factors at some point during the previous offseason.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 1:06 PM MST up reply actions  

That must be it

Here’s where I saw the negtive projection for Helton. (It’s also where I saw the 2.2/2.3 projection for Berkman) These players much have gotten a bump.

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 1:23 PM MST up reply actions  

Yep

Last winter, I discovered that my aging factors were too harsh. The factors I’m using now are actually slightly kinder than the data would suggest they should be, so now I really doubt that NEIFI is being too vicious as far as aging is concerned.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 1:35 PM MST up reply actions  

And just because I have to know

What does NEIFI predict for Tulo next year?

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 1:41 PM MST up reply actions  

Tulo

6.01 WAR, best player in baseball.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 2:01 PM MST up reply actions  

hehe

I thought 2011 sucked pretty bad. I have nothing to add to that.

by prettyinpurple on Dec 12, 2011 2:03 PM MST up reply actions  

Well

At the very least, I guess I have to take back that comment about it being depressing. If Heltonfan followed up that comment with this piece of information, he probably would have shut me up right there :-)

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 2:07 PM MST up reply actions  

Fun Tulo fact

Using the now-current market rate of $6.84m/win (it’s ballooned a lot over the past week or so… Pujols, Buehrle, and estimated A-Ram and Cuddyer contracts have really driven it up), if Tulo were a free agent this winter, he should sign for 10 years, $318 million.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 2:10 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Pujols

What “should” he have signed for?

by MileHighHawkeye on Dec 12, 2011 2:13 PM MST up reply actions  

Pujols

8/183. So yeah, crazy overpay.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 2:14 PM MST up reply actions  

Wow

So even NEIFI which does not like aging players projects Tulo to average 4.65 WAR per year from now until he turns 37?

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 2:18 PM MST up reply actions  

Nope

Average 3.6 WAR per year. You’re forgetting the 5% annual inflation.

Of course, this is contingent on the assumption that the $6.84m/win observed this winter is the true market rate. I don’t think it is… last winter was $5.72 million, so either annual inflation is a lot higher than 5% (unlikely), last year was flukishly low (unlikely, because it was considerably higher than previous years), or this year is flukishly high. I’d ballpark the “true” 2011 winter rate at $6.3m/win… somewhere between the expected $6m/win (based on last year’s figure) and the observed.

by Heltonfan on Dec 12, 2011 2:23 PM MST up reply actions  

you have no one else topping 6 WAR?

that would definitely confirm NEIFI as a “downer” projection system in my mind, anyway

arenado: it's Rockie for future

PRMLB Arizona Diamondbacks GM

by papality on Dec 13, 2011 12:32 AM MST up reply actions  

If that's your standard

Then all remotely credible projection systems are “downers”. Of course more than 1 player will exceed 6 WAR, but that doesn’t matter… if you look at the top 15 or so projected players, NEIFI nails them in the aggregate.

At least it usually does. This year featured so many huge disappointments (Pujols, Mauer, Morneau, Hanley, Choo) that NEIFI actually appears to have been too optimistic.

If you think NEIFI is a downer, your beef isn’t with NEIFI, it’s with reality. ;)

by Heltonfan on Dec 13, 2011 12:46 AM MST up reply actions  

19 hitters hit 6 or more fWAR last year, and 6 pitchers

what’s your projections for say, evan longoria, miguel cabrera, joey votto, albert pujols, jose bautista, adrian gonzalez, roy halladay, cc sabathia, justin verlander, clayton kershaw, cole hamels, dan haren, and cliff lee?

arenado: it's Rockie for future

PRMLB Arizona Diamondbacks GM

by papality on Dec 13, 2011 12:50 AM MST up reply actions  

I use a higher replacement level for pitchers than FanGraphs does

Verlander is the only pitcher who cracks 5 WAR for me. Well, Verlander and Darvish. Darvish’s Japanese league numbers are absolutely insane… he’s going to break every projection system around.

But the fact that 19 players hit 6 WAR proves nothing. The purpose of a projection system is not to produce a set of results that looks like a typical end-of-season set of results, it’s to produce an accurate over-under line for each player.

by Heltonfan on Dec 13, 2011 12:54 AM MST up reply actions  

what’s your projections for say, evan longoria, miguel cabrera, joey votto, albert pujols, jose bautista, adrian gonzalez

arenado: it's Rockie for future

PRMLB Arizona Diamondbacks GM

by papality on Dec 13, 2011 12:57 AM MST up reply actions  

Top 15 position players

Tulowitzki, Troy 6.01
Bautista, Jose 5.80
Longoria, Evan 5.55
Cabrera, Miguel 5.40
Kemp, Matt 5.36
Pedroia, Dustin 5.24
Pujols, Albert 5.20
Gonzalez, Adrian 4.95
Zobrist, Ben 4.77
Kinsler, Ian 4.74
Stanton, Mike 4.72
Votto, Joey 4.67
Reyes, Jose 4.64
Braun, Ryan 4.60
Ellsbury, Jacoby 4.51

Some of those guys will finish above 6 WAR. But collectively, they’ll end up right around the 5 WAR average, I’m quite confident of that.

by Heltonfan on Dec 13, 2011 1:02 AM MST up reply actions  

since 2007, the average number of players to beat 6.0 WAR, not just be within a margin of error,

has been around 20.
6 players did it in strike-shortened 1994, 4 in strike-shortened 1981, 12 in 1944 (down to hitters this far back for fWAR), 9 in 1943, 12 in 1942….

i bet there’s not a season in history with only 1 6.0+ WAR player. NEIFI is a downer system.

arenado: it's Rockie for future

PRMLB Arizona Diamondbacks GM

by papality on Dec 13, 2011 1:10 AM MST up reply actions  

Again, you can't judge it that way

In any given year, lots of players will beat their mean projections, and lots of players will fall well short of their mean projections. That’s the nature of the beast. But if you build a projection system that forecasts 20 guys a year to beat 6 WAR, you’ll end up horribly overestimating that group of players on the average.

The spread of actual results will always be far greater than the spread of projected results. That’s not a problem with projection systems. If you do 10 sets of 10 coin flips, and ask me to project the results of each set, I will project 5-5 for each set. That projection will end up looking “wrong”, because by chance, some of those sets will end up 7-3 or even 8-2. But does that mean that the projections were actually wrong? Of course not. I’m not saying that player performance is a coin flip, but the mathematical principle is the same.

by Heltonfan on Dec 13, 2011 1:16 AM MST up reply actions  

To illustrate

Some projection systems do look more optimistic than NEIFI. And that’s a big part of why they’re less accurate. Here are the top 10 2011 pitcher forecasts, according to ZiPS (I just took the ZiPS ERA+ forecast and converted it to my ERC scale):

Felix Hernandez 2.65
Ubaldo Jimenez 2.67
Tim Lincecum 2.72
Josh Johnson 2.78
Jon Lester 2.86
C.C. Sabathia 2.95
Cliff Lee 2.96
Roy Halladay 2.96
Justin Verlander 3.06
Clayton Kershaw 3.09
Max Scherzer 3.14
Tommy Hanson 3.14
Brandon Webb 3.16
Zack Greinke 3.16
Matt Cain 3.16

Here’s what NEIFI said for those same pitchers:

Felix Hernandez 2.99
Ubaldo Jimenez 3.14
Tim Lincecum 3.13
Josh Johnson 3.10
Jon Lester 3.11
C.C. Sabathia 3.39
Cliff Lee 3.27
Roy Halladay 3.36
Justin Verlander 3.26
Clayton Kershaw 3.18
Max Scherzer 3.53
Tommy Hanson 3.45
Brandon Webb 4.00
Zack Greinke 3.22
Matt Cain 3.60

Aggregate forecasts for the group (weighted by actual 2011 IP for each pitcher): ZiPS 2.95, NEIFI 3.27

Actual performance of group: 3.29 ERC

Again, the downer isn’t NEIFI, it’s reality. Of course more than one player will exceed 6 WAR, but Tulo is the only player who has a more than 50% chance of doing so, and therefore, the only player who projects at that level.

by Heltonfan on Dec 13, 2011 1:26 AM MST up reply actions  

It's a difficult concept

People naturally expect more of a projection system than it can possibly give. It’s simply not possible to create a remotely accurate set of projections that mirrors the observed spread of performance in a typical season… all we can do is set the over-unders.

The same goes for projecting team win totals, of course. Right now, NEIFI says that the Rangers are the best team in baseball, projecting to win 92 games. Does that mean “NEIFI says no one will win more than 92 games next year”? Of course not. Performance = talent + luck + sampling error. A projection system can only make a guess at the talent component.

by Heltonfan on Dec 13, 2011 4:34 AM MST up reply actions  

Exactly

It’s a truism that some team will do worse than expected, and some teams will do better than expected. A projection system is the “expected” in this equation.

Thought experiment: It has been proven the Rockies have a 50/50 chance of winning 70 games or 90 games. No other number is possible. The projection? 80 games. It doesn’t matter that that specific outcome can’t happen; it’s the only way of averaging the various things that might happen.

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by biondino on Dec 13, 2011 5:26 AM MST up reply actions  

Interesting that only two of the top ten players are from the NL

Top three from the senior circuit…..

1) Tulo (6.01)
2) Kemp (5.36)
3) Stanton (4.72)

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 13, 2011 10:21 AM MST up reply actions  

There were 24 players that topped 6 WAR in 2011

Projecting only one to do so in 2012 makes NEIFI a downer.

Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.

by free7694 on Dec 13, 2011 12:51 AM MST up reply actions  

(and I usually have a pretty good memory about stuff like this)

Understatement of the week.

by RoxnSox09 on Dec 12, 2011 1:08 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Strange ...

You say awful in 2010 … but that is the one year in his whole career he has been awful … was he awful in 2011? How about 2009? 2008? You get the point. We know he sucks in the field but picking out 2010 … c’mon man!

by Traindogger on Dec 12, 2011 12:24 PM MST up reply actions  

I think in 2010 he was awful but still batted above .240 and had 23 hrs and probably 75 RBIS. I haven’t looked in a while but I think im close…if thats his awful I would abeen willing to risk it

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 12:26 PM MST up reply actions  

Wait. A-Ram is going to make less annually than Jonathan Papelbon?

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 12:01 PM MST up reply actions  

Proven Closer®

arenado: it's Rockie for future

PRMLB Arizona Diamondbacks GM

by papality on Dec 12, 2011 12:37 PM MST up reply actions  

OT: The malaise at work has begun.

We cancelled a regular project manager status meeting this morning because nobody was around, and one coworker just responded to the e-mail saying that she was still in bed. Heh.

by holly96 on Dec 12, 2011 11:59 AM MST reply actions  

Man that stinks Holly.

I hope you find greener pastures sooner than later.

Avalance 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.

by Thnikkaman on Dec 12, 2011 12:00 PM MST up reply actions  

Waiting to see if Chicago is an option (had to reapply) then will decide.

Probably need to come close to a decision soon, as I don’t know how long we’ll have to accept any offers. Life decisions are hard. Bah.

by holly96 on Dec 12, 2011 12:19 PM MST up reply actions  

Dubuque is not a bad place to live

Its right by the prettiest part of the Mississippi valley.

Avalance 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.

by Thnikkaman on Dec 12, 2011 12:29 PM MST up reply actions  

I would be more inclined to consider Dubuque if I weren't single, to be honest.

Not that I’m the bar hopping type or anything, but it would really limit my options.

by holly96 on Dec 12, 2011 12:32 PM MST up reply actions  

Well, probably.

But also filtering for religion (which is important to me) probably makes the options even slimmer.

by holly96 on Dec 12, 2011 12:57 PM MST up reply actions  

I can see why you would want to stay in the West.

We do have a few LDS churches here in Eastern Iowa. In fact, I know more people of the Bahai faith here in Iowa than I do LDS

Glad religion wasn’t important to me when I got married.

Avalance 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.

by Thnikkaman on Dec 12, 2011 1:34 PM MST up reply actions  

I'd rather A-ram ...

Than Cuddyer at those prices … as ARam could presumably cover 1st when Arenadi is ready and Helton is relegated to the bench.

by Traindogger on Dec 12, 2011 11:59 AM MST reply actions  

Agree.

What’s another $4-8M for a far superior player of comparable age? He’s only played 16 fewer games since 2008.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 12:02 PM MST up reply actions  

OT: Its snowing here in New Mexico

68 today, 67 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 12:04 PM MST reply actions  

I've got to hand it to this community

I think we can take any player that has several good qualities (many that would even fit the Rockies needs well) and rip them apart until it’s ALMOST universally agreed on that it’s a bad idea to sign them.

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:08 PM MST reply actions  

or, the opposite can also be true

/Jose Lopez

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 12:09 PM MST up reply actions  

The Jose Lopez Incident

Is the very archetype of the exception that proves the rule.

(let’s ignore the fact that “the exception that proves the rule” is actually complete nonsense)

It's my blog!

PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you

by biondino on Dec 13, 2011 4:05 AM MST up reply actions  

It's an art!

The off-season sucks.
That is all.

by DAWNMARIE01 on Dec 12, 2011 12:09 PM MST up reply actions  

very true, been saying it for months…stats can be used very well and stats can be manipulated, can be a slight problem with a very heavy SABR community

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 12:11 PM MST up reply actions  

Cuddyer could have more to do with team attitude than simply replacement value

The Rox — with good reason — are looking to change the clubhouse culture from a laid back bro scene to something more fiery and competitive. By all accounts, Cuddyer helps on that score.

The Tebow thing, as well as Kirk Gibson’s entire career right up to this point, speaks to the value of that sort of thing. Too much and a team can implode, not enough and you have the 2011 Rockies.

by evers44 on Dec 12, 2011 12:15 PM MST reply actions  

I'm glad you bring this side of the coin to the table

There was a huge debate about this type of stuff here in the Fall of 2009 and since then I think the importance of it has been underplayed a little. Even if most disagree, it will at least be good for us to reexamine why.

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 12:27 PM MST up reply actions  

Anyone who's played a team sport understand the impact of other player's attitudes on the whole

You feed off the negative and you feed off the positive. If the vibe of the room is “we don’t go for rah-rah stuff” then that’s what you get, for better or worse. If the vibe is “everyone better play as if their lives depend on it or someone’s gonna get in your face” then that’s what you get, for better or worse.

Nothing happens in a vacuum, and players aren’t machines calibrated to play to a certain statistical level no matter what. Finding the right balance, the right tension is part of the job of a manager and a GM.

The most talented teams don’t always win championships, but the most finely tuned usually do.

by evers44 on Dec 12, 2011 12:35 PM MST up reply actions  

The "other" Ramirez ...

While we’re at it … maybe we should look at Manny … hell … he’ll come cheap and he murders LH pitching (.371 wOBA as recently as 2010). Sure he’s a butcher out there … ah …You’re right … I’m reaching. Still, rather have Manny for 100 games at 2-$3mil than Cuddy at $30 mil.

by Traindogger on Dec 12, 2011 12:23 PM MST reply actions  

Objectively

I like this as a high-upside move, but he bothers me so much as a player that overall, I wouldn’t like it.

by The Toddfather's Goatee on Dec 12, 2011 12:24 PM MST up reply actions  

Sure I would take manny, I am sure 93 differnt SABR stats with + or – signs in front of them probably tell me now but I wouldn’t be extremely opposed to it

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 12:25 PM MST up reply actions  

he if the Phillies think Jim Thome can play 1st base, I believe Manny can play the OF

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 12:28 PM MST up reply actions  

he'd be a great platoon partner for smith

not to mention career .410 wOBA in high leverage, .434 RISP…. i hate his guts as a person for playing in boston and LA, but god i love him as a baseball player

arenado: it's Rockie for future

PRMLB Arizona Diamondbacks GM

by papality on Dec 12, 2011 12:41 PM MST up reply actions  

Still don't think Cuddyer leaves the Twins

Its like a true family up there…its kinda weird.

A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves

by waterboy31321 on Dec 12, 2011 12:23 PM MST reply actions  

OT: This is a hell of an alarm clock.

Maybe JT could use one of these when his matchupzzzzzzzzzzzzzz isn’t going to work right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKv08vkBmpc&feature=related

68 today, 67 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 12:26 PM MST reply actions  

OT: Hilarious Tebow writeup

No matter where you stand on this, this blog post is a riot.

http://deadspin.com/5867199/reality-is-now-indistinguishable-from-tim-tebow-fan-fiction

I love the prediciton for the day after the Broncos win the Super Bowl:

On ESPN’s First Take the next morning, Skip Bayless and Merril Hoge will debate whether Tebow is the risen Christ and if he needs to become more of a downfield passing threat for the Broncos to repeat.

by evers44 on Dec 12, 2011 12:41 PM MST reply actions  

OT: Free Chris Paul!

The NBA is setting a dangerous precedent for all sports leagues. Sort of like the similarly poor inverse of what Minaya and MLB did in the waning days of the Expos by emptying the cupboard.

by deacs on Dec 12, 2011 12:44 PM MST reply actions  

OT: Four weeks of no stress, math, deadlines, math, headaches, or math is ahead of me.

Woot. Survived one. Seven to go.

I thought 2011 sucked pretty bad. I have nothing to add to that.

by prettyinpurple on Dec 12, 2011 1:17 PM MST reply actions  

Um excuse me,

We have some very important math to do in the next month regarding which players to add that will ultimately make the 2012 Rockies a better team. :-)

/Congrats though – That’s a great feeling

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 12, 2011 1:31 PM MST up reply actions  

Whaaaaa...go get someone else to calculate that. :P

Thanks though!

I thought 2011 sucked pretty bad. I have nothing to add to that.

by prettyinpurple on Dec 12, 2011 1:36 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

Still out, duh!

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 1:39 PM MST up reply actions  

Didn't you have to do math to come up with the "7 to go"?

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Dec 12, 2011 1:48 PM MST up reply actions  

No, that's what someone told me...

or was it 9…I don’t remember.

I thought 2011 sucked pretty bad. I have nothing to add to that.

by prettyinpurple on Dec 12, 2011 1:50 PM MST up reply actions  

Thank you

That made my day

Avalance 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.

by Thnikkaman on Dec 12, 2011 2:20 PM MST up reply actions  

this photo will need to be bookmarked for future occasions

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 2:33 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

BANHNED

Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
PRMLB Marlins

by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 3:07 PM MST up reply actions   1 recs

What the H?

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Dec 12, 2011 3:11 PM MST up reply actions  

BAHNED, James Bahned

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 3:14 PM MST up reply actions  

dammit...

Banhned, James Banhned

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 3:15 PM MST up reply actions  

Oh forget it...bah

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 3:15 PM MST up reply actions  

Armadillo races

"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK

by jrockies on Dec 13, 2011 1:50 AM MST up reply actions  

Jim Bowden
Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd told me that they haven’t even made an offer to Michael Cuddyer…they like him and the fit…but $$ could be barrier

This is where understanding the semantics of FA negotiating comes in handy. The Minnesota offer of 3 years/$24M or $25M is on the table, the offer has been made. The Rockies have had contact with Cuddyer, but have not actually tabled an offer, as they’re trying to get him to give a definite figure that he’d sign for before they do. They don’t want a real offer to be used as a negotiating tool with Minnesota and be left out like the chumps or have the price go beyond what they’re willing to do.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 3:06 PM MST reply actions  

I think we had an identical response

You win for conciseness

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 3:14 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

he WOULD be a frontline pitcher

but come on, SETH SMITH!

Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 3:34 PM MST up reply actions  

we wouldn't need the babe to pitch

We have Chatwood

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 3:48 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

there's this player in Brazil named Juan Carlos Torregas Banuelos

Who is supposed to have Gold Glove ability at second base, swat 30 homers, and obp .420. he also is a plastic surgeon that repairs lip clefts in the offseason despite being only 22. No one has ever written about him, because it has long been presumed it would cost $100 billion or more to buy him from the government of Brasilia. However, he’s a world class skiier and has a massive crush on Lindsey Vonn, so rumor has hit he would take his talents to the Mile High City for just $9mil a year.

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 3:13 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

He costs too much

We should save our money for Siddhartha Hess, who throws 110 mph

by maris61 on Dec 12, 2011 3:17 PM MST up reply actions  

oh sidd finch

I’d sign that made up guy.

He’s a pitcher, part yogi and part recluse. Impressively liberated from our opulent life-style, Sidd’s deciding about yoga — and his future in baseball

Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
PRMLB Marlins

by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 3:35 PM MST up reply actions  

Purple row Talent headhunters are freakin' awe-sum

lets get this kid signed!! freakin’ even DOD cant screw this up

The Big Purple Machine will make a believer outta you!

by El Paso Jeff on Dec 12, 2011 3:19 PM MST up reply actions  

via mobile

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 3:20 PM MST up reply actions  

reccin dis.

Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.

by frightened inmate #2 on Dec 12, 2011 3:38 PM MST up reply actions  

Wyoming is boring

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 4:30 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

I was going to say, however, that this doesn't rule out an implied offer,

The fact that the Rockies are so strongly connected to Cuddyer right now indicates an implication that the team would beat Minnesota’s offer has been made to the OF.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 3:08 PM MST up reply actions  

Good, so maybe all the hand-wringing over signing Cuddyer...

was moot. Personally, I’m hoping for a more inspired move.

by GoRoxGo on Dec 12, 2011 3:10 PM MST up reply actions  

Seriously?

Getting rid of Wigginton was one thing, but getting rid of Street for nothing was really hard to swallow.

Don’t go on about how much you want Cuddyer then cry poverty when you actually have to beat another team’s offer. Seriously, I’m not one to cry CheapFartz but bitching about money to sign a free agent you claim is a top target is a good way to start. Especially when you trade Street for nothing.

I’m sick and tired of this Rockies free agent garbage.

Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton

by MattBerger on Dec 12, 2011 3:31 PM MST up reply actions  

RG is right

If the Rox weren’t prepared to go above 3 yrs/ $25 mil, they wouldn’t be talking to Cuddyer.
But if they just lay an offer out there, his agent will shop it. Getting a “what will it take to sign him” commitment from the agent is the correct thing to do at this point.

by maris61 on Dec 12, 2011 3:34 PM MST up reply actions  

but $$ could be barrier

Look, if Cuddyer was asking for stupid deal like Buerhle was, then I understand, but it looks like the Rockies know what it will take to get him and are shying away.

Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton

by MattBerger on Dec 12, 2011 3:39 PM MST up reply actions  

Calm down, it's posturing.

As everybody’s saying here, even me who likes the idea of signing Cuddyer, he’s not that inspiring a player to go and overpay for, no matter how much the team’s fond of him. This was probably in response to a media Tweet earlier that suggested 3/$30 million was what it would take. This is the Rockies way of saying “no dice from us” on that figure. I really don’t think any other team is going to jump in and offer it to him, either.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 3:36 PM MST up reply actions  

It's the language of it that bothers the hell out of me

There are so many other ways of saying Cuddyer isn’t worth 3/30.

Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton

by MattBerger on Dec 12, 2011 3:40 PM MST up reply actions  

Prado + Kuroda + Volquez

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 3:41 PM MST up reply actions  

aaaaaand we have none of the sort.

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 3:52 PM MST up reply actions  

that's true with one of those guys...

The Braves do have Prado, the Reds Volquez.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 3:55 PM MST up reply actions  

Well, true.

Just meant that no moves have been made with any of them, so it’s not like the Rockies (or any other team) have yet missed out.

by holly96 on Dec 12, 2011 4:03 PM MST up reply actions  

as rg said, much of the FA market is posturing

I’ll reserve judgement until no FA are signed by April 1

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 3:37 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

His agent is holding out for the Rockies to sign up for the warranty plan

downside: gonna cost an extra 3.6M per year.

Upside: Cuddyer breaks, they’ll send us Jason Kubel.

Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 3:38 PM MST up reply actions  

That's another indication that Saunders will be non-tendered.

or traded for a Chaz Roe type tonight. Saito’s a better fit, though.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 3:45 PM MST up reply actions  

good pickup, depending on the price

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 3:46 PM MST up reply actions  

^4


In all things, it is better to hope than despair.

by butterfly on Dec 12, 2011 3:53 PM MST up reply actions  

Isn't the non-tender deadline tonight?

-Spilly and uhh…..who else?

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 3:53 PM MST reply actions  

:-(

if you could have just been at least competent at as RH bench bat, Spilly.

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 3:55 PM MST up reply actions  

or learned to play 2B & 3B or something...

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 3:56 PM MST up reply actions  

Man...

I feel like Purple Row is turning into this.

Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.

by free7694 on Dec 12, 2011 4:00 PM MST reply actions  

Does this mean we have to start writing backwards?

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 4:05 PM MST up reply actions  

haha No

Though if you figure out how to, I’ll be impressed.

Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.

by free7694 on Dec 12, 2011 4:06 PM MST up reply actions  

I evig pu

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 4:07 PM MST up reply actions  

or would it be

pu evig I

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 4:08 PM MST up reply actions  

The latter

is what I’m going for, but who am I kidding? I can’t even spell forward :-)

by The Toddfather's Goatee on Dec 12, 2011 4:13 PM MST up reply actions  

Looks right to me :)

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 4:13 PM MST up reply actions  

Forward that is

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 4:13 PM MST up reply actions  

^5

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 4:15 PM MST up reply actions  

Aaron Rowand signed with the Marlins.

Will be glad to see his supremely annoying batting stance far less in the future.

by holly96 on Dec 12, 2011 4:06 PM MST reply actions  

speaking of the Marlins

@Ken_Rosenthal: Buerhle w/ Marlins: $6M in 12, 11M, 18M, 19M in 15. 4M signing bonus, deferred w/o interest

We can no longer spell backloaded contract D-O-D-G-E-R-S

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 4:08 PM MST up reply actions  

hello 2013 off season fire sale!

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 4:23 PM MST up reply actions  

OT: Sources say that Jim McElwain (Alabama OC) has been hired as the next coach for CSU

If true, as a CSU alum, I’m very excited about this hire!

GO ROCKIES!
I'm a believeR!

by HylianHero on Dec 12, 2011 4:11 PM MST reply actions  

As a KU fan, we hired Chuck Weis.

cries in corner

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 4:27 PM MST up reply actions  

Eh, as a big CU fan but CSU student

it’s the best hire that CSU could have made but isn’t a game changer. CU chose against him and reportedly was below Bill MC in order of who they wanted. Reports were that he just was Dan Hawkins 2.0. But who knows, maybe he is what Hawkins should have been.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. ~Earl Wilson

by Bloynoys on Dec 12, 2011 4:35 PM MST up reply actions  

I thought CSU just fired Dan Hawkins 2.0?

McElwain will be an upgrade, but unless some of the more fantastical stories about new facilities are true, he’s got a massive uphill climb, and will probably leave for greener pastures (no pun intended) if he does manage to have success there…

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Dec 12, 2011 4:59 PM MST up reply actions  

In the opinion of some... :-)

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Dec 13, 2011 12:10 AM MST up reply actions  

Of course

If this on-campus stadium rumor is true, I’ll jump for joy.

No matter what happens, at least our coaching search didn’t involve embarrassment.

See: UCLA, ASU, aTm, etc.

GO ROCKIES!
I'm a believeR!

by HylianHero on Dec 13, 2011 1:55 AM MST up reply actions  

its funny, researching him, Hawk was the comp that immediately came to mind for me too

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 5:45 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

What makes you think this?

I was at work and haven’t had much time to research yet.

GO ROCKIES!
I'm a believeR!

by HylianHero on Dec 12, 2011 11:19 PM MST up reply actions  

And

we’re covering it at SB Nation Denver.

And that’s my appearance at PR for the month.

"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto

SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!

by Russ Oates on Dec 12, 2011 4:33 PM MST up reply actions  

I'll never understand Amart's Seth Smith love.

Unfortunately, I was too busy today to comment on it.

I just want me a real #5 hitter some day. Some day.

Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!

by DumbAndNerdy on Dec 12, 2011 5:28 PM MST reply actions  

Dodgers sign Tony Gwynn Jr.

And yes, it’s to a two year contract. Anybody want to bet that it’s split 50/50 between 2012 and 2013? Anybody?

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 5:35 PM MST reply actions  

its actually close

$850k in ’12, $1.15k in ’13

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 5:46 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

oops

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 7:01 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Broke-ass Mets:
NY Times just revealed that the Wilpons had to take out another $40 million loan to make payroll, this time from Bank of America. And MLB is still not forcing them to sell the Mets.

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 6:28 PM MST reply actions  

Here's a Shovel Mr. Wilpon

Feel free to continue digging that hole.

Its ridiculous that the Wilpons are allowed to keep that team. Being friends with the Commish sure has its perks.

by Adam2011 on Dec 12, 2011 6:32 PM MST up reply actions  

Heh...flec'd

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 7:05 PM MST up reply actions  

Damn you Luke Scott

Throws right, bats left.

Non-tendered and for a second I thought he might be able be a platoon OF/back up 1B for us and save us from having to over-extend on, say, Michael Cuddyer. But, no, another lefty.

He had shoulder surgery so maybe what side of the plate is irrelevant and we wouldn’t want him anyways. If Baltimore is passing on him when he was scheduled to make $6 million and they need, at the least, a DH he probably is damaged goods.

Which makes me wonder, what was my point?

by Adam2011 on Dec 12, 2011 6:30 PM MST reply actions  

Wouldn't want, even if healthy

even without the political wackiness

He’s Seth Smith Lite. And about as streaky as a hitter gets — hot & cold, Wiggy-like.

by maris61 on Dec 12, 2011 7:06 PM MST up reply actions  

Forgot about his streakiness

Streaky guys like that drive me crazy.

by Adam2011 on Dec 12, 2011 7:57 PM MST up reply actions  

Can he play OF

If so, he could be a cheap RH platooner with Smith after we strike out on Cuddyer and Willingham

by maris61 on Dec 12, 2011 7:07 PM MST up reply actions  

He'd probably need some time in AAA to focus on hitting first,

but I really like the idea of having a dual position player/pitcher like that for the Rockies, if ever a real one comes about.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 7:13 PM MST up reply actions  

Jennings was as close as you'll see

I the guy’s a legit pitcher, I just don’t see a team messing around with the dual role. And if he can’t cut it on the mound, he’ll probably go the Rick Ankiel route. Specialization rules.

Jennings, however, had some pop. Hit a ton while at Baylor.

by Northsider1964 on Dec 12, 2011 7:22 PM MST up reply actions  

Owings is a better hitter than pitcher

but never made the full switch, unlike his teammate at Tulane, Brian Bogusevic, who did give up pitching to hit & made a decent showing with the Astros last year.

by maris61 on Dec 12, 2011 7:36 PM MST up reply actions  

Bogusevic was pretty fun to watch last year

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 7:37 PM MST up reply actions  

I wish to retract the above statement re: Owings

I should know to trust stats more than my memory.

Owings in 2011 was 8-0 w/ a 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .240 avg against — a much better year than I thought.

His hitting, OTOH, has declined each year since he got to the bigs (not surprisingly, as his good-hitting college days fade into the past)..

If Owings was non-tendered, he might be worth a look, but perhaps his arb status makes him potentially expensive.

by maris61 on Dec 12, 2011 7:50 PM MST up reply actions  

Someone will pick him up for sure then

Those 2011 stats are way better than what a lot of teams had on their roster at the end of 2011 — including, unfortunately, one purple-clad team I can think of.

by maris61 on Dec 12, 2011 7:55 PM MST up reply actions  

Terrible ground out ratio, though

so don’t know if he’s a fit at Coors.

But with those stats in AZ, a team with a forgiving park (SD, NYM, OAK) would be well advised to take a flyer on him.

by maris61 on Dec 12, 2011 8:09 PM MST up reply actions  

We need to get off the groundball pitcher craze

I don’t think it works as well as we think it does in Coors, because sinkerball pitchers tend to walk a lot of guys too (their effective strike zone is very small). I think we need to focus on guys who change speeds well and have great command. No More Walks!

by BostonTransplant on Dec 12, 2011 8:44 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah , exhibit "A", "B" or "C"

on why the D’backs are not likely to have a season like 2011 again in 2012. I mean, EVERYTHING went right last year, with the single exception of the injury to Stephen Drew.

by BostonTransplant on Dec 12, 2011 8:42 PM MST up reply actions  

Brooks Kieshnick (sp.?)

ex-Cub tried the dual hitter/pitcher role, without much success.

Same background: stud hitter and pitcher in college.

Carlos Zambrano anyone?

by maris61 on Dec 12, 2011 7:53 PM MST up reply actions  

he was with the Rockies, and started his dual role the next year in Milwaukee, iirc

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 8:24 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

it’s good for R L R issues where you can bring in Owings, then move him to the OF, bring in a lefty, and then put Owings back on the mound.

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

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by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 10:03 PM MST up reply actions  

probably. maybe though the more options we give him, the more he can screw up and expose his weaknesses…

#staypositive
#fireTracy

"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker

PRMLB: The Brew Crew

by Resolution on Dec 12, 2011 10:09 PM MST up reply actions  

Andruw Jones

Have we forgotten about him? This is a guy I can get behind as a platoon partner with Smith. He crushed LH pitching last year .286/.384/.540 and I believe would be above average in a corner OF spot.

by Traindogger on Dec 12, 2011 6:37 PM MST reply actions  

Casey McGehee traded to the Pirates for Jose Veras.

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 6:51 PM MST reply actions  

Whoa. That's kind of surprising

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 6:59 PM MST up reply actions  

that he'd go to Pitt or that he'd be traded?

Once Aramis signed, McGehee was good as gone. For that price, its worth it for Pitt, even with Alvarez there. Could motivate Pedro. Could also play one of em at first

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 7:05 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Well, since I was unaware that Aramis signed

it was a surprise that he was traded…lol. So now that I realize Aramis was signed it is much less surprising…

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 7:06 PM MST up reply actions  

I thought they might keep him around

at least until Braun comes back (if he ends up suspended). Assuming Prince is gone, I thought they might want McGehee for 1B…

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Dec 12, 2011 7:46 PM MST up reply actions  

wow. Another lost chance

68 today, 67 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 7:02 PM MST up reply actions  

Maybe

He had an Atkins/Stewart-like crash in 2011.

Just another comeback candidate at this point.

by maris61 on Dec 12, 2011 7:08 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah, I'm not feeling it with McGehee.

I might be wrong, but that was a pretty steep cliff he dropped off of.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 7:14 PM MST up reply actions  

Rockies nontender Ryan Spilborghs and Cole Garner

Reach contract agreement with Kevin Slowey

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 7:09 PM MST via mobile reply actions  

Sad :(

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 12, 2011 7:12 PM MST up reply actions  

Ya

I didn’t even realize Garner was a candidate

by zmiko on Dec 12, 2011 7:14 PM MST up reply actions  

I didnt either.

So now, we can’t get squat for them?

68 today, 67 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.

by Roxman4ever on Dec 12, 2011 7:15 PM MST up reply actions  

With Spilborghs, we could have gotten squat at some point.

With Garner, it was never really an option. He was too old to seem valuable to other teams in trade. He might have been a throw in at the tail end of a big move ala McBride, but I wouldn’t have counted on it.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 7:17 PM MST up reply actions  

Two of the nicest guys in the org.

It seems that O’Dowd is really cutting a lot of strings this year.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 7:15 PM MST up reply actions  

a team composed of 25 nice guys finishes in 4th place.

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 7:19 PM MST up reply actions  

...if that.

I’m not saying the moves weren’t necessary or surprising.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 7:19 PM MST up reply actions  

I feel worse for Garner, actually

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 7:30 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Possible with Spilly,

I don’t know if it is with Garner. He might look around.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 7:20 PM MST up reply actions  

Like someone alluded to this morning

I would find this mystifying. If the Rockies have decided he’s not worth the bottom end of the arbitration parameters, why should saving a couple hundred thousand dollars give them a change of heart? Move on.

by Northsider1964 on Dec 12, 2011 7:47 PM MST up reply actions  

I'd take him on a minor league deal

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 7:47 PM MST up reply actions  

Spilborghs had his moments here

And he certainly made his presence during his time here felt. Hopefully wherever he lands he can have a couple more of those moments.

Garner wasn’t even arbitration eligible. They obviously figured he has no role with us anymore.

by Adam2011 on Dec 12, 2011 7:28 PM MST up reply actions  

NOT GARNER

NOOOOOOO

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by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 11:29 PM MST up reply actions  

Lindsay Guentzel
Sounds like #Twins are standing firm on $26mil / 3years for Cuddyer. If it goes beyond, Twins are also liking picks + Willy or other OFer.

I don’t know what the Rockies are at, but it seems we’re at an end game here.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 7:24 PM MST reply actions  

we'd have to offer 3/28 or 3/30 to sign him at this point, don't we...

That’s a fairly steep price

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 7:31 PM MST up reply actions  

money wise?

That would be tough, especially with O’Dowd discussing a Lidge or Hawkins signing as well.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 7:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Hawkins has been signed

Unless my memory is completely gone. It was only last week.

by BostonTransplant on Dec 12, 2011 8:46 PM MST up reply actions  

oh wow. I must have missed that one

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 8:50 PM MST up reply actions  

Not your fault

I think it came right after the Pujols/Wilson signings so it was kind of pushed to the side

by steakman on Dec 12, 2011 8:53 PM MST up reply actions  

We're talking about 4 different acquisitions

and I don’t see the money available for all of them. Maybe 2 of 4

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 7:38 PM MST up reply actions  

Scutaro's only one year

We can exceed the budget on a one-time basis, I’m sure.

by BostonTransplant on Dec 12, 2011 8:46 PM MST up reply actions  

Rather spend the money ...

On Edwin Jackson and Andruw Jones. If only we still had a 3rd baseman.

by Traindogger on Dec 12, 2011 7:39 PM MST up reply actions  

Can Scutaro play 3rd?

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 7:40 PM MST up reply actions  

He can, yes ...

But the bat doesn’t quite profile there and he isn’t on our team … heh.

by Traindogger on Dec 12, 2011 7:42 PM MST up reply actions  

Jackson's not coming to CO willingly.

But don’t worry, he’ll be available for trade during the middle of the summer if we wait.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 7:40 PM MST up reply actions  

It's steep

But damn it, I just want some momentum. Lets get things going. And I think this team really needs some stability in the lineup. That is something we seem to be getting close to.

by mkorpal on Dec 12, 2011 8:02 PM MST up reply actions  

no, he was reclassified under the new CBA

the Twins would get a 1st rounder before ours, but we don’t have to surrender anything

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 7:36 PM MST up reply actions  

For some reason I thought he still was a Type A.

My bad.

by Adam2011 on Dec 12, 2011 7:42 PM MST up reply actions  

Well, he is

but the new CBA revalued most of the Type A players so that a team wouldn’t have to surrender a first rounder to sign them. Cuddyer, and most of the relievers, were given that secondary classification for this offseason.

Starting next year, that won’t even exist.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 7:43 PM MST up reply actions  

Got it.

Knew the relievers got bumped down, didn’t catch that position players did too.

by Adam2011 on Dec 12, 2011 8:17 PM MST up reply actions  

What's the diff, really ...

3/26 is 8.7 m a year. 3/28 is 9.3 m a year. That’s going to be the difference between getting him and not? We have the cash. I can see making the argument that we ought to spend the money elsewhere (although except for E. Jackson, I can’t for the life of me imagine on whom, unless we’re going after Youk), but not beating the Twins offer for just puritanical, “he’s worth this but not that” reasons is not gonna fly.

by BostonTransplant on Dec 12, 2011 8:39 PM MST up reply actions  

Agreed

But I’m getting the sense that DOD doesn’t even want to go to 3/26 for him and would rather keep it at 2 years…might just be me though.

Not too concerned about that, however. AMart’s logic in this RP makes a lot of sense, the more I consider it. I’d prefer that we turn our attentions to Scutaro/Prado as well.

by steakman on Dec 12, 2011 8:52 PM MST up reply actions  

If that's what DoD has in mind

Then he’s dumber than I thought. Seriously, why even let the rumors go this far if you know you won’t beat the Twins offer and therefore you have zero chance of getting him (and his new family) to leave their home? Can’t believe that.

I think the issue with Scutaro/Prado is that you can’t really do it without acquiring another outfielder, because both require (likely) Smith in trade. I like Blackmon as much as the next guy, but I’m not interested in going into the season with him as my starter, even if we get a Gomes to platoon with him.

by BostonTransplant on Dec 12, 2011 8:57 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm leaning towards sticking with Smith for 2012 and looking for a Gomes-type platoon partner

I’d prefer to give up a prospects-only package for Scutaro or Prado.

I’m not sure how much it would require to acquire Scutaro, but the Sox seem pretty keen to shed some payroll and I presume that it would be a lot less than what Wren’s asking for Prado. Would, say, Wheeler + Edwar Cabrera do it?

by steakman on Dec 12, 2011 9:06 PM MST up reply actions  

That's a lot for one year of Scutaro

I would think Cabrera alone would do it, but that’s a $6m hit on our budget. Add a platoon partner for Smith and we’re certainly up to what Cuddyer would make. So the question becomes:

Is the Cuddyer scenario (MC in the outfield, plus whatever (2B or P) we can get for Smith plus keeping a pretty good P prospect) better or worse than the Smith scenario (Smith and Gomes in the outfield, plus Scutaro at 2B and no P). Guess it depends if you think Cuddyer’s any good, but I’d go with door #1 on that one.

by BostonTransplant on Dec 12, 2011 9:53 PM MST up reply actions  

My mistake.

I thought Scutaro had two years remaining on his contract for some reason. Not sure if Cabrera alone gets it done though.

by steakman on Dec 12, 2011 10:52 PM MST up reply actions  

the bird on the uniform is a nice touch

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 7:38 PM MST reply actions   2 recs

Saunders non-tendered
Diamondbacks non-tendered LHP Joe Saunders.
The Diamondbacks were discussing a multi-year contract with Saunders as recently as last week, but he became expendable following the acquisition of Trevor Cahill. The 30-year-old figured to make $8-9 million in his final year of arbitration, so while he didn’t draw much trade interest, he will have plenty of suitors as a free agent. The southpaw posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.31 WHIP across 33 starts this past year for Arizona, though he finished with a career-low strikeout rate.

Source: Ken Rosenthal on Twitter

by Traindogger on Dec 12, 2011 7:43 PM MST reply actions  

Dan, don't you do it.

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 7:44 PM MST up reply actions  

Do you realize how good a 3.69 ERA in that stadium is?

We’ll never get him because of the Coors factor, but come on. Beggars can’t be choosers.

by BostonTransplant on Dec 12, 2011 8:33 PM MST up reply actions  

I would sign him on a one year deal...

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 7:44 PM MST up reply actions  

Yeah, we're really operating on a narrow scope with starting pitching this year

too many big fish in the same pond

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 7:48 PM MST up reply actions  

Dodgers non-tendered Kuo.

There would be an interesting add, he’d be about as high on my bullpen list as Lidge.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 8:01 PM MST reply actions  

well, let me amend that...

if healthy, he’d be about as high on my bullpen list.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 8:04 PM MST up reply actions  

If healthy, he's a beast

But hasn’t he had Tommy John about four times already? He’s probably running low on replacement tendons.

by Northsider1964 on Dec 12, 2011 8:28 PM MST up reply actions  

Good thing I wasn't drinking when I read this comment.

"Are they called the Rockies because they rock?" - 7 y.o.

by glaucophane on Dec 12, 2011 8:44 PM MST up reply actions  

omigod

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings

by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 8:44 PM MST up reply actions  

Yea, comment of the year.

@CentralCaliRox

by CentralCaliRox on Dec 12, 2011 9:07 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

he had been in the Dodger organization since 1999

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 8:23 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

I remember he said he'd lean towards retirement if the Dodgers' weren't interested in bringing him back

I’d love to see a Taiwanese guy with the Rockies again, but I think Kuo’s done, esp. with the anxiety disorder issues.

by steakman on Dec 12, 2011 8:35 PM MST up reply actions  

Bit different.

Greinke was much younger and still very, very highly regarded as a prospect when he was going through his darkest moments, so to speak. Besides, his control hasn’t totally abandoned him as it has with Kuo.

by steakman on Dec 12, 2011 8:44 PM MST up reply actions  

I don't

Kuo has been completely useless for quite some time now. Don’t think 2009-era Kuo. Think huge-longshot-for-a-long-recovery type guy.

Lidge would be fine with me as another late inning option.

by BostonTransplant on Dec 12, 2011 8:35 PM MST up reply actions  

Damnit, I did it again. Responding to posts at the very bottom of the page right on top of the “POST A NEW COMMENT” function always trips me up.

by Adam2011 on Dec 12, 2011 8:42 PM MST up reply actions  

Renck says Slowey's new contract is "non-guaranteed"

Does that mean if he doesn’t go north with us out of ST, he becomes a free agent? That’s actually somewhat interesting, if true. That could mean he really is insurance in case we don’t find a more established SP via trade, and nothing more. It also means that theoretically we could save the $3m for hitters if we want to go that way.

by BostonTransplant on Dec 12, 2011 8:54 PM MST reply actions  

That would be awesome

Even more important than opening up money, ‘cause by the point they determine he is not worth a roster spot (hypothetically…I am rooting for him) there wont really be anyone left on the FA market, is the freedom it would give us in figuring out our rotation. This way we won’t feel pressed into starting him because he’s making more than player x.

by Adam2011 on Dec 12, 2011 8:59 PM MST up reply actions  

It's also an out for him,

He really didn’t like the situation last year in Minnesota when the team pushed him to the bullpen. If the Rockies don’t want him, it makes him a free agent for the first time, and with his stats, chances are some team will pick him up. This is one of the few cases where it works for both player and a team.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 9:06 PM MST up reply actions  

Well this makes it more likely he gets non tendered right?
mlbtrben Ben Nicholson-Smith
Giants, Mike Fontenot agree to one-year deal for 2012, avoiding arbitration I have learned.

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by jlbroxfan on Dec 12, 2011 9:27 PM MST up reply actions  

I can certainly live with Keppinger at 2B for 2012.

Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
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by Muzia on Dec 12, 2011 9:35 PM MST up reply actions  

Way better than Herrera/Nelson

Probably better than Lemahieu too

President of Baseball Operations for the PRMLB Atlanta Braves

by jlbroxfan on Dec 12, 2011 9:37 PM MST up reply actions  

You think Lemahieu hits better than .280?

President of Baseball Operations for the PRMLB Atlanta Braves

by jlbroxfan on Dec 12, 2011 9:39 PM MST up reply actions  

I'm going to hedge on that.

I think he could. I think the relative direction of the two players says LeMahieu will be better than Keppinger in the next 12 months. I just don’t know when that line will get crossed. It could come before the season starts.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 9:44 PM MST up reply actions  

Decent, above average contact skills and he still actually has some power projection.

He can play in the middle infield, and a lot of his defensive woes are as much about inexperience as they are anything else. Of course, by using the word projection and talking about his inexperience, I acknowledge that he’s still a project, but he’s got a brighter future than a lot of people realize. He could be a Jeff Baker type fairly quickly, and at his peak, he could be more. I imagine that since he was redundant to Baker, the Cubs felt okay letting him go.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 9:59 PM MST up reply actions  

I just don't see him as any better than the other knuckleheads we have already

he is really going to need to add some power or become an empty average, below average defender.

by mkorpal on Dec 12, 2011 10:09 PM MST up reply actions  

It's really fairly likely that he does.

30% of his hits in the minors last season went for extra bases. That wouldn’t really cut it at a corner infield position for very long, but he actually had a higher percentage in that department than Jordan Pacheco, without the benefit of hitting in Colorado Springs. Like I said, the defensive issues you see written about LeMahieu should also see some refinement and improvement with playing time. While there isn’t a ton of upside with him, there’s more than a lot of people are acknowledging.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 10:29 PM MST up reply actions  

well, that sure is a tweet
@gerritcole:

Considering quitting baseball to smoke weed. Fuck it

yeah, I wouldn’t want to play for the Pirates either

/Gerrit was their first overall draft pick in 2011.

"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"

Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.

by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 12, 2011 9:31 PM MST reply actions  

Hacked

Bet you 10,000$

President of Baseball Operations for the PRMLB Atlanta Braves

by jlbroxfan on Dec 12, 2011 9:34 PM MST up reply actions  

There's also a @gerrit_cole

Neither are confirmed accounts, so…

by steakman on Dec 12, 2011 9:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Somebody needs to slop more hogs,,,

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

by Junction Rox on Dec 12, 2011 9:40 PM MST up reply actions  

oh wait, you mean that wasn't a euphemism for smoking a joint?

Wow, that whole Ian Stewart meme looks a lot different now.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 10:03 PM MST up reply actions  

LMFAO

Absolutely perfect. My hat is off to you, RG!

I miss the magic. (h/t papality)

by rockhead on Dec 12, 2011 10:09 PM MST up reply actions  

its a fake

Cole doesn’t have a Twitter accoujt. Source: Cole

"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 12, 2011 11:59 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Great point...

Moving Seth Smith at this point for what they (or is it just we…?) are talking about kind of wreaks of making a change just to make a change.

As big of a fan of Seth Smith as I am (I get way too much enjoyment from screaming “Let’s go Seth Smith!” way louder than I need to…) I would totally be in favor of making a trade or signing a legitimate, every day corner OF and moving Smith back to a 4th outfielder/PH extraordinaire.

But trading him for a different OF with similar limitations for 2-3X’s the salary seems like an expensive lateral move at best.

by WhiskeyDrinkingMan on Dec 12, 2011 10:16 PM MST reply actions  

Well

the idea of trading Smith is to get more value out of a return than using Smith as a backup. And no, we are not trading Smith for another OF. Not sure where you got that from.

by mkorpal on Dec 12, 2011 10:22 PM MST up reply actions  

Platoon player and backup aren't the same things

Charlie Blackmon is a backup. He’s defensively sound and a questionable bat – at this point in his career. Seth Smith beats the hell out of RHP and would need to be platooned against LHP – that’s not a backup, that’s a most-of-the-time starter.

Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
PRMLB Marlins

by Andrew Martin on Dec 12, 2011 11:33 PM MST up reply actions  

Anybody interest in getting Ryan Theriot....

He’s been a thorn in the Rockies’ side over the years, hitting .318 against us. Cards are non-tendering him.

by GoRoxGo on Dec 12, 2011 10:30 PM MST reply actions  

I'd rather have him than Keppinger, but it's very close and I'm not convinced I've picked the right one.

I’d of course rather have Prado or Scutaro than either of those two, and think we should continue to dig in the next higher tier trade market for now before falling back to that level.

by Rox Girl on Dec 12, 2011 10:35 PM MST up reply actions  

If we don't end up with an everyday 2nd baseman....

AT LEAST as good as Theriot or Keppinger, then we will all know that something is seriously wrong with our FO. I would hope one of them is a “fallback” position, but if we wait and fail to trade for a better one, and Theriot and Keppinger sign elsewhere in the meantime, it would be the height of ineptitude on our part.

by GoRoxGo on Dec 12, 2011 10:48 PM MST up reply actions  

Theriot is garbage

.227 ABR with subpar defense = replacement level.

Keppinger comes out considerably better (.247 ABR, 1.13 WAR)… I wouldn’t mind going after him, but of course he’s a lower-upside solution than we’d like.

by Heltonfan on Dec 13, 2011 1:05 AM MST up reply actions  

That's enough to change my mind.

Keppinger it is, if either of these two.

by Rox Girl on Dec 13, 2011 6:14 AM MST up reply actions  

Gawd, I've read this article 5 times today

Its very good. It has me changing my offseason desires.

Pitching, Keppinger/Coghlan/Bonifacio, RH platoon!!

^5 A-Mart

@CentralCaliRox

by CentralCaliRox on Dec 12, 2011 11:39 PM MST via mobile reply actions  

RH OF platoon**

I’d also throw Scutaro into that 2B mix. Prado isn’t coming here.

@CentralCaliRox

by CentralCaliRox on Dec 12, 2011 11:41 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

OTish:

I like your new avatar- it’s awesome of course.
I keep getting it mixed up with other’s though- when’d you change it?

I thought 2011 sucked pretty bad. I have nothing to add to that.

by prettyinpurple on Dec 12, 2011 11:43 PM MST up reply actions  

Yea I thought the pic of me was a little too FB and a little less Rockies

So I took my desktop background and made it my profile pic. Easy decision

I changed it about a week or so ago.

@CentralCaliRox

by CentralCaliRox on Dec 12, 2011 11:50 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Yuck. Ambiguous writing there

The OLD profile picture of the picture of myself was a little too much Facebook-esque, so I changed it to the famous HeltonPose®, which is my PC background.

@CentralCaliRox

by CentralCaliRox on Dec 12, 2011 11:52 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

I get ya.

Cool.

I thought 2011 sucked pretty bad. I have nothing to add to that.

by prettyinpurple on Dec 12, 2011 11:55 PM MST up reply actions  

TrippingOlney tweets
TrippingOlney Not Buster Olney
BRANDON BELT MUST BE EXCITED FOR ANOTHER HALF SEASON OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL.

Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on Dec 13, 2011 12:22 AM MST reply actions  

JFK's Quote for the Day in Question:

“Getting the contract helped me more than anything. I was concerned around the trading deadline and thought the Mariners would trade me for either (Jaime) Moyer or (Pat) Hentgen.” ~Alex Rodriguez

"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK

by jrockies on Dec 13, 2011 1:19 AM MST reply actions  

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