The Ian Stewart Poll

by SurfaceThought on Dec 5, 2011 3:55 PM MST

For obvious reasons, there's been quite a bit of debate around the Row about Ian Stewart's role on the team (or lack thereof) in 2012. Some people seem to have strong opinions, and a lot of people (like me) really don't know what to think about him at this point. I would to get some input to see whereabouts the median opinion about Ian Stewart lies. So, just for fun, lets just say he performs well in spring training, appearing fully healthy and in shape, and is given the starting job out of the gate. Although Tracy can't help but play platoon by starting Pacheco at third sometimes, Ian is generally getting the regular playing time. Meanwhile, Arenado starts in Tulsa, and is doing very well. Not tearing it up like he did in the AFL, but still OPS'ing almost .900, with continued solid defense. It is the end of May, and pressure is mounting to bring up Arenado, and Stewart has definitely had time to audition.

What is your best guess as to the probability he will end up in the following four hypothetical bins (WAR equivalents given as approximations only) :

1) Terribad (negative to 1 WAR over a whole season equivalent) - Ian, for whatever reason, has simply lost it. He can't adjust to those down and away pitches, and strikes out an obscene about of the time. He can't get on base by hit or walk, and although he may (or may not) be playing solid defense, he is contributing little else to the team.

2) Starting Quality ( 1 to 2.5 WAR equivalent) - He may not be playing like we want him to play, but he hasn't been a hole in the lineup.Yes, he strikes out a bit too much and doesn't draw to many walks, but he has played good defense, is able to put the bat on the ball against non-top tier pitchers, and adds enough pop now and then to add a little bit of actual value.

3) Run Producer (2.5 to 4 WAR equivalent) - Ian finally has used that sweet swing of his to spread hard hit balls around the outfield, creating plenty of doubles and homers. While still not the best batter in the league by a long shot, and probably not the best third basemen, he helps build a fearsome bottom half of the order for the ROX and has plenty of opportunity to drive in members from the heart of the order in

4) The Ian Stewart of our Dreams ( above 4 WAR equivalent) That monster power we know he has finally manifests is the big Leagues, and he hits almost or over 40 home runs and is (one of) the offensive star(s) of the Rockies.

Ready, Go! I appreciate your input, RowBots

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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Here is my stab

1 – This is a very real possibility definitely, but I think that last year was a fluke and that his true talent level is simply higher that this. I’d put the probability at 15%

2- I think this is the most likely scenario. I would say that he has about a 65% chance to land in here, and probably near the upper end. This is why I think that we should keep him around – with the 3B market like it is there are very few options around to even reliably outperform this level, and we only need a 3B for (hopefully) at most a year before Arenado gets to the big show

3 – I also think this is still a distinct possibility, even a more likely possibility than him completely bombing again. For someone with as much raw power as him, one tweak to his swing that cuts down on the K’s could get him a long way to respectability. I would put this probability at almost a 1 in 5 chance, or almost 20%

4. I bet I am not alone in once thinking that he would be able to to have multiple seasons of this caliber. I think that he has definitely been shown to just not be in this range. But once again, with the raw power I wouldn’t rule it impossible. Less than 1%.

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by SurfaceThought on Dec 5, 2011 4:06 PM MST reply actions

I'm writing the Stewart player review in a couple weeks

so I’ll share my opinions there. Thoughts are still incomplete.

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by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 5, 2011 6:38 PM MST reply actions

You should add an actual poll as well

I think it will be between 1 and 2 at this point though

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by jrockies on Dec 5, 2011 6:39 PM MST reply actions

Well, I was hoping to get something of a probability distribution from people instead of just what they think the most likely outcome is.

Supporting efforts to create a genetic splice of Jonathan Herrera and Troy Tulowitzki since 2011.
The NewNugs 2011 - Officially back on the Bandwagon
I <3 Johnson

by SurfaceThought on Dec 5, 2011 6:55 PM MST up reply actions

That makes sense

I didn’t read everything close enough

by jrockies on Dec 5, 2011 7:17 PM MST up reply actions

Here you go

by jrockies on Dec 5, 2011 7:25 PM MST up reply actions

Poll

1 – 10 %
2 – 55 %
3 – 25 %
4 – 10 %

I like Stewie, and aside from his horrendous 2011, he performed well enough as a stopgap. I think he deserves another chance before Arenado reaches us in 2013.

I know people say Arenado can go in 2012, but honestly he could use a little more seasoning just so he doesn’t bomb mentally.

by RockiesRick! on Dec 5, 2011 7:38 PM MST reply actions

1 – 20%
2 – 45%
3 – 30%
4 – 5%

I think there’s a fair chance that Stew becomes a league average bat with plus defense… however the chances that he becomes the 3B we all dreamed he would be are very low.

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by The Toddfather's Goatee on Dec 5, 2011 7:41 PM MST reply actions

I'll be interested to see the results of this little survey. Good idea!

1 – 10%
2 – 35%
3 – 45%
4 – 10%

It might be a purple-colored glasses thing, but I’m pretty optomistic, actually. I don’t think he’ll ever become a bonafide stud at this point, but I really do think last year was the nadir. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he has a strong 2012 (call that the lower end of Category 3) and then settles into a decent career of being an average to slightly above average 3B.

Just a small town kid who thinks Coors Field on a sunny summer Saturday night is the best place to be on this or any other plane of existence. When a late-inning Todd Helton go-ahead homerun is added to this scenario, my brain melts.

by Gasstation1 on Dec 6, 2011 9:21 AM MST reply actions

I'll have some of what you are drinking ;-D

Supporting efforts to create a genetic splice of Jonathan Herrera and Troy Tulowitzki since 2011.
The NewNugs 2011 - Officially back on the Bandwagon
I <3 Johnson

by SurfaceThought on Dec 8, 2011 1:05 PM MST up reply actions

1) 60%
2) 30%
3) 8%
4) 2%

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by biondino on Dec 6, 2011 11:35 AM MST reply actions

Hmmm

1. 35 %
2. 55 %
3. 9 %
4. 1 %

I think he either completely busts again or become at most an average starter. I don’t see his flaws being resolved on this team, and I’d probably increase his chances of becoming a starter/run producer if he gets moved. He’s worth more to other teams at this point than to us because we’d only need him for a year anyways before being moved out again. If he were to start for us, it’d be merely to boost his trade value until Arenado comes.

To be honest, I think I’m being generous to Stewart. Barring a huge change in his approach, he isn’t going to make enough contact to start, and if he can’t make consistent contact, then his power potential and ISO are going to decrease as well. That’s what killed him last year.

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by MattBerger on Dec 6, 2011 11:42 AM MST reply actions

Hmmm I like this

My original predictions we probably a bit purple tinted, maybe this is closer to the truth.

Supporting efforts to create a genetic splice of Jonathan Herrera and Troy Tulowitzki since 2011.
The NewNugs 2011 - Officially back on the Bandwagon
I <3 Johnson

by SurfaceThought on Dec 8, 2011 1:00 PM MST up reply actions

1. 10%
2. 30%
3. 50%
4. 10%

the phillies signed papelbon, and are now #1evilorg. the rockies have signed no one, but trading wiggy to the phillies totally makes it okay
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by papality on Dec 6, 2011 12:47 PM MST reply actions

Every single person here so far, other than me

Thinks there is a significant likelihood of Stewart accruing enough WAR to pay for his arb contract more than twice over. Hell, according to you lot there is pretty much zero risk re-tendering him. Really?

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by biondino on Dec 6, 2011 1:41 PM MST reply actions

I'm not to optimisitc

85%
5%
5%
5%

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 7, 2011 8:31 AM MST up reply actions

Wow RIRF, i'm surprised

Performing at a one WAR per season level is not all that uncommon at all (and is a level that Ian has in fact produced at in his MLB career). Do you really think that, given the chance, he would only have a 15% chance of clearing that bar?

Supporting efforts to create a genetic splice of Jonathan Herrera and Troy Tulowitzki since 2011.
The NewNugs 2011 - Officially back on the Bandwagon
I <3 Johnson

by SurfaceThought on Dec 8, 2011 12:30 PM MST up reply actions

He cleared that mark before the league adjusted to him

In order for him to clear it again, he’ll have to make an adjustment himself – And he hasn’t shown me he’s capable of doing that yet. At this point, I only give him a 15% chance of successfully implementing these types of adjustments into his game. If he is able to do this however, he has enough talent that there’s no telling how far he’ll clear the 1 WAR bar by, therefore I put numbers 2, 3, and 4 as equals.

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 11, 2011 9:27 PM MST up reply actions

Yes and no

Part of the reason I posed this question is that I do think that there is less risk at re-tendering him then he seems to get credit for, especially considering the pricyness of the alternatives. If Ian is able to produce somewhere in the 1 – 1.5 WAR per season area, which is really not even that good (Seth Smith, who is not really a feared slugger and is much worse at fielding his respective position than Ian, was able to double the 1 WAR bar last year in three-quarters playing time, for perspective) then from a pure a pure dollars per WAR standpoint, we would be paying about half as much to Ian than we would be able to buy WAR’s on the open market (which is upwards of 4 mil per WAR). Of course, building a team of bargain 1 WAR players is no way to win a championship. But the point I’m trying to make about the Rox specific situation is that for what we are most likely going to be paying him, he really doesn’t have to be that good at all to still be someone valuable to keep around.

Of course, if your outlook about him is as dire as RIRF’s or yours, then it still isn’t a good idea, and we might as well try play Herrera at third (as Herrera is basically a known quantity of being about replacement level). If you think tat Ian Stewart really is a replacement level player, then yes there are cheaper, better options out there. But if your are like me, or some of the others in this thread, then you give at least enough credit to Ian to say that he is most likely at least a 1 WAR player (even though he may never be close to what we thought he might be) and he’s probably about as good as an Arenado Stopgap as we can get.

Plus, if he improves at all, that means we will be able to trade him at the deadline or after the season for at least a bullpen arm or a prospect that at least has a chance of making it to the majors, whereas if we non-tender him now we get nothing.

Supporting efforts to create a genetic splice of Jonathan Herrera and Troy Tulowitzki since 2011.
The NewNugs 2011 - Officially back on the Bandwagon
I <3 Johnson

by SurfaceThought on Dec 8, 2011 12:58 PM MST up reply actions

Here are my guesses

1. 80%
2. 15%
3. 5%
4. Roughly the same chances as a snowball in hell.

I have been saying for years that Ian Stewart can not adjust to big league pitching and hoping that he made me eat my words because it woudl be a good thing for the Rockies. (What do I have to loose, my opinion does not carry any weight). He has prooven to be better defensivley than I thought since the year he lead both the Sky Sox and the Rockies in errors in the same year. Hitting however is a game of adjustments, from game to game, at bat to at bat and even pitch to pitch and he has proven he is incapable of making adjustments.

Even if he plays well in Spring Training and makes the club and even if he starts out well, I still do not feel confortable with him for a full season because pitchers will adjust to his good start and he he will not react to the pitchers adjustments.

Just my opinion for what it is worth….

What if the hokey pokey is what it is all about after all????

by FlyAway on Dec 6, 2011 2:27 PM MST reply actions

My take

I see Ian Stewart (and Chris Iannetta) as great examples of how the Rockies organization has changed. If Clint Hurdle was here, (I am not for that), Ian would have played much more on the big team last year and would have had a chance to work through his issues. He would have had the job in without question in 2010 as well. Chris Iannetta would have played all of 2010 as well.

I think Jim Tracy does not have the ability to guide young players. If Ian Stewart struck out too much or didn’t hit to a point games were lost, Tracy saw his job at stake and went into the prevent defense. Jim Tracy manages not to lose, and not to have blame laid on him. He is unimaginative. He is too cautious. He made the short term decision to remove Ian Stewart hurting the long term prospects. The best thing that could happen to Ian Stewart is what happened to Chris Iannetta, and leave Jim Tracy far behind.

I am still a Rockie fan. They are my favorite team, and I will listen or watch 140 games next year. But I no longer love them like I did, and I blame Jim Tracy. The whole direction of the team, and the philosophy of the team is not what it was under Hurdle. Hurdle developed a lot of players, and obviously had some busts.

It used to be a team philosophy of being family oriented. To be a great place to play. I would say that right now being a Rockie is not a great thing for a player.

Having Ty Wigginton and the rest play ahead of Ian Stewart was the exact same mistake they made the previous season with Iannetta sitting on the bench.

So here are my guesses,

As a Rockie,

1 50%
2 25%
3 25%
4 0%

On another team,

1 20%
2 50%
3 25%
4 5%

by brian8065 on Dec 6, 2011 8:13 PM MST reply actions

Stew wasn't just being robbed by great defensive play after great defensive play

He was flat out over-matched.

1 – 60%
2 – 30%
3 – 9%
4 – 1%

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by Hollidayrain on Dec 7, 2011 7:51 AM MST reply actions

He absolutley was last year

but he hasn’t been like that for the rest of his career. I’m not convinced he’s permanently broken.

Supporting efforts to create a genetic splice of Jonathan Herrera and Troy Tulowitzki since 2011.
The NewNugs 2011 - Officially back on the Bandwagon
I <3 Johnson

by SurfaceThought on Dec 8, 2011 1:03 PM MST up reply actions

And, to be fair, he didn't have the greatest start to the season.

Supporting efforts to create a genetic splice of Jonathan Herrera and Troy Tulowitzki since 2011.
The NewNugs 2011 - Officially back on the Bandwagon
I <3 Johnson

by SurfaceThought on Dec 8, 2011 1:06 PM MST up reply actions

Is it mental or physical?

Stewart has been an enigma. If that talent is really there, when has he last shwn it? It is clear he has had some physical issues, at the same time I have seen both his attitude towards both being a major leaguer and individual at bats questioned.

Which player is going to show up in Arizona?

1. 15% he’s a head case and it’s over. Or his wrist is really bad.

2. 80% it gets a little better, enough so Stewart provides the bridge to Nolan.

3. 4% it really finally come together for him, OD understood this and all kudos for being patient.

4. 1% just proves the importance of leaving general managing to the professionals. Half of Purple Row takes a vow of Internet silence.

by Larry Walker on Dec 7, 2011 9:24 AM MST reply actions

Not much hope for a fine fellow

1. 60% If his wrist is the problem, why haven’t we seen something about a prognosis?
2. 15% He has had a while to improve but has gotten worse.
3. 2% Would be nice to see, but his track record does not bode well for strong performance.
4. 0.5% Probably not in our lifetime, but miracles have happened before.

Stewie is a great guy with real talent. But is poor showing at the plate has been accompanied by no justifiable explanation. I wish him well.

by Real Perspective on Dec 7, 2011 11:47 AM MST reply actions

As a matter of interest, what happens the other 22.5% of the time?

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by biondino on Dec 7, 2011 5:26 PM MST up reply actions 3 recs

We're talking about the enigma that is Ian Stewart here

It doesn’t have to add up to 100%.

Although baseball is full of teams suffering setbacks, it’s also full teams overcoming them. All I ask is for the Rockies to be defined by the latter category.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Dec 8, 2011 7:55 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs