Rockies Trade Ian Stewart, Casey Weathers to Cubs for Tyler Colvin, DJ LeMahieu
by Rox Girl on Dec 8, 2011 6:44 PM MST
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The Rockies have traded two former first round draft picks, third baseman Ian Stewart and right hand minor league reliever Casey Weathers, to the Cubs for another pair of once promising prospects, outfielder Tyler Colvin and infielder D.J. LeMahieu according to an Internet report from Troy Renck.
After a disappointing 2011 season, the Rockies have overhauled the young roster that won the 2009 Wild Card, already sending out catcher Chris Iannetta and reliever Huston Street in earlier off season deals, not to mention ace Ubaldo Jimenez during the summer to Cleveland.
The 23 year old LeMahieu hit .250 in a limited 60 at bat debut with the Cubs in 2011, after batting .317 in three seasons in the minor leagues. He was a second round choice of the Cubs in 2009 out of Louisiana State. The 26 year old Colvin was the Cubs first round pick of the 2006 draft and had a breakout .254/.316/.500 season in 2010 before getting speared by a broken bat of Wellington Castillo in an infamous September incident. He recovered physically, but went through a .150/.204/.306 season with the Cubs who grew disenchanted that he'd be able to regain his lost stature.
After the Cubs signed David Dejesus earlier in the off season, Colvin became expendable and eventually talks began to circulate with the Rockies around Stewart about moving the two fallen prospects in a challenge trade.
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Not happy.
Sold low.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Dec 8, 2011 6:46 PM MST via mobile reply actions
Its the Rockies
Do you expect anything else?
72 today and 71 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
Who are you? Keth Law?
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by SDcat09 on Dec 8, 2011 7:31 PM MST up reply actions 3 recs
hahaha
I thought 2011 sucked pretty bad. I have nothing to add to that.
by prettyinpurple on Dec 8, 2011 8:08 PM MST up reply actions
Is there any other way to sell on a guy who didn’t hit his daughter’s weight last year?
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
by Franchise26 on Dec 8, 2011 6:48 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
trading a guy who had a better road OPS than Cargo in 2010
for 24-25 men on the roster is not a good plan
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Too bad about that 2011 season in between...
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true but on those grounds why the hell are we hot and bothered for prado?
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Probably not anymore
Braves may have had too high an asking price – Rox went with plan B
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 8, 2011 7:19 PM MST up reply actions
Compared to 2011 Stewie
2011 Prado was Mike Schmidt in his prime…
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by Junction Rox on Dec 8, 2011 7:35 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
So was 2011 Wiggy
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
and I like Prado
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
You're underestimating LeMahieu,
and ignoring Colvin’s 2010 in which he had a better road OPS (.853) than Ian Stewart (..802)
according to the cub fans I have talked to LeMahieu is defensively a 3B
I hope that is not true,not that we gave much up but I don’t think playoff teams make these moves. These are the kind of guys I think the pirates should pursue
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
The Pirates were only one game worse than we were last year. I think you doth protest too much and for the wrong reasons.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
by Franchise26 on Dec 8, 2011 7:19 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Fair looking a little more at the numbers particularly if Colvin is what allows us
to move Blackmon in a Prado trade I am pretty happy with this return
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
The Rays gave up a disappointing Delmon Young at one point to get back Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.
The D-backs gave up Max Scherzer and Dan Schlereth to get back Ian Kennedy. This is the kind of move playoff teams make, the question is whether the Rockies made the correct decision on the players they got back. We’ll see.
yeah I had mistakenly read it as Dewitt and Lemahieu which would have been
a lot worse
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
This is very true.
I wanted no business with DeWitt. Colvin has plenty of chance to be a solid albeit unspectacular player still.
That K% and BB% says I doubt it, but certainly worlds ahead of DeWitt
I really think Stewie has something left in the tank, but if we send Blackmon/Smith to ATL then sign Cuddy we really are aiming at the playoffs this and next year
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Fair and if he is our 4/5th OF I like his upside and pre-arb status
again particularly if it is part of a bigger plan
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Stewart was worse than all of the players you just listed.
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for 122 AB last year
Stewie was a league average or slightly above league average 3B for the 3 years before that and I believe could break out big
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Delmon Young put up a 124 OPS+ after the trade.
The Rays still benefittedfrom the trade.
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Good thing that the Cubs didn't think so, then.
This is very much a change of scenery trade like the Young/Garza trade was seen at the time.
It’s not really a thought thing. His stats last year were much worse than Young or Scherzer pre-trade. This is the same type of trade, but Stewart had a different kind of failure.
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Not entirely. I'd argue that none of those players had a season like Stewart's or Colvin's 2010's before they were traded, either.
The key to me that make them similar is the motivation of the teams involved. In all the cases (Young, Garza, Scherzer, Kennedy, Stewart, Colvin, and then to a lesser degree, Schlereth, Weather, LeMahieu) you’re talking about players that the teams receiving still saw much of the same potential value that the teams giving up the players had once seen when they were drafted. The Cubs right now really believe that Stewart can rebound, the Twins really believed that Young would, etc… This is a very similar trade to those.
Stewart had a 97 OPS+ in 2010. Colvin had a 113 OPS+ in 2010. But Stewart and Colvin were horrible in 2011 21 and 38 OPS+ respectively.
Young had a 108 OPS+ in 2006 (SSS) and a 91 OPS+ and was 2nd in ROY voting.
Scherzer had a 153 ERA+ in 2008 (SSS) and 108 in 2009.
Neither of those guys dropped off the map and had equal to or better seasons.
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Much smaller samples, and Stewart's defense in 2010 added a lot of value
Young had no seasons over 1.0 WAR before he was traded Stewart had 3.8 WAR over three seasons. Colvin was a 2.0 WAR player in 2010. So I’m guessing you might be using those SSS’s to try and game your argument a little. Scherzer was definitely a lot better than I remembered with the D-Backs, but they were afraid he was heading to the bullpen. At any rate, you’re missing the point that the main similarity is that the team giving up the players had literally given up, while the teams that are/were getting the players back are motivated by a second chance at fixing their mistake with a prospect who could turn out so much better and the trading team just doesn’t see the value of.
It really doesn’t take much of a search to see Twins fans and brass talking about the awesome commodity they were receiving with Young, while the Rays would talk focus on the great potential of Garza. Here we have Cubs brass talking about Stewart’s power, his pedigree and his defense like he’s the potential All-Star we thought he’d become. We’re not talking about Colvin so much, but I’m going to guarantee that he’ll be touted in similar terms. This is the same kind of trade, it’s not your normal junk for junk 12th round UT type of deal. The teams really are thinking they’re getting full time parts back.
My only point is
that I don’t think that we can expect Colvin and Stewart to turn into Delmon Young and Matt Garza. That’s all. There is hope for rebound, but I think those hopes are less than the hopes of the trades that you mentioned.
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Pointing to the stats was merely a way to show that neither of those players had the disastrous type of seasons that Stewart and Colvin had. I think that those performances rightly question expectations being set too high. That’s all.
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Why not hope for Young and Schlereth?
You’re not talking about very much in the way of post trade results there, certainly not relative to the expectations that the fans/team brass had for those players. Schlereth, in fact, has brought back negative returns. What did the Twins dump Young to the Tigers for this year? I don’t think that’s what their fans wanted for Garza.
You seem to think I’m implying the best results of the examples I gave, when I’m just saying that this is that exact same kind of trade.
I’m saying that the disastrous seasons that the Stewart and Colvin had make this a slightly different type of trade. It’s comparable, but not the same.
The disappointment in the results post-trade is indicative of this. Young has floated around league average, which is disappointing. I think if Stewart or Colvin become league average MLB hitters, these trades will be viewed as successes.
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Anyway, it's not really worth the argument.
I agree with the general premise that this is a change of scenery trade of talented players and not a junk swap.
I just think there are some different circumstances here. I think it would be unfair to be disappointed if Colvin isn’t an MLB regular.
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Oh, I know, but that's how most fans will see it because that's how the GM's will frame it.
Jed Hoyer already:
“We felt like there’s a ton of potential in there,” general manager Jed Hoyer said. “He provides us with a left-handed bat at third base, he’s the right age, he’s affordable. We expect big things out of Ian.”
DOD was a little bit more forthright with Renck.
“We’re continuing to look for the right pieces,” general manager Dan O’Dowd said.
That’s about right.
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I'm glad for this...
He’s going to take the expectations and heat of the DP crowd on his shoulders and let the players be whatever they’re going to be. That’s the better way.
Don't look at the DP comments.
Just don’t.
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I think you’re exactly right. There is a hope for a recovery or a breakout, but that’s it. There is no expectation for serious MLB production now nor in the future.
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good decsions
As long as Billy G is in there they will never make good decisions
by goodniteirene on Dec 8, 2011 8:09 PM MST up reply actions
I'm disappointed too, the Rockies should be spending $340 million this offseason collecting big names..
it worked for the Red Sox.
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Not sure on that.
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Agree
And if this takes us out of the running for Prado I’m gonna be pissed.
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
I think this puts us more in the running for Prado than ever...
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
Why would it do that?
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I don’t think that that’s true.
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We can now trade one of our starting outfielders AND Blackmon
And then sign Cuddyer. Makes sense to me, but what do I know.
by BostonTransplant on Dec 8, 2011 8:36 PM MST up reply actions
I don't understand this logic...
The Cubs sold equally low on Colvin, and while Stewart has the better prospect pedigree, Colvin is no slouch either, as a former first rounder and BA Top 100. He could just as easily enjoy a bounceback season as Stewart; really, a change of scenery benefits both players.
Furthermore, if you consider LeMaheiu-Weathers separately, we received, at worst, a decent bench bat with some upside for, at best, a project who cannot harness his pitches. I really see this as a win for us.
So there are now 2 guys left from the 2007 team
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
/it is a new beginning, right?
by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 8, 2011 6:47 PM MST via mobile reply actions
Gosh this makes me sad...
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Not true
Count again.
Hating Cubs fans since 1908
by Hizilla on Dec 8, 2011 7:41 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Tulo, Helton, Spilly (for a few days at least), Smith
who else am I missing? Anyone?
Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.
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by Bryan Kilpatrick on Dec 8, 2011 7:51 PM MST up reply actions
That's all.
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by Greg Stanwood on Dec 8, 2011 7:51 PM MST up reply actions
Smith and Stewart will be gone by ST.
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Stewart is gone now
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He is always in my heart.
I meant Spilborghs.
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Basically a challenge trade as far as the two biggest pieces go – it clearly wasn’t working out for Colvin in CHI or Stewart in COL, so both teams will bank on a change of scenery. Since I like LeMahieu’s chances of being a regular big league better than Weathers’, I think the Rockies should come out ahead here.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
by Franchise26 on Dec 8, 2011 6:48 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
I'd argue that LeMahieu is the bigger piece coming back to the Rockies.
He’s the one with the path of least resistance and he has the skills to take the 2B job from our current disappointments there.
How do you say that guys name?
is it like Lemeiux?
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Luh-MAY-hugh.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
Gesundheit.
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Yep
pure luck darts trade here. Maybe someone “wins” this trade but I don’t think either side can take credit/blame for the results, other than the extent to which they might have been supressing the value of their players by coaching/managing, etc.
Interesting
hopefully the second baseman works out.
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6'4" 205
If he works out, we have the biggest MI in baseball hands down, I’d guess…
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holy cow
that’s a big second baseman… is the kid more of a fielder or hitter?
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the latter
He’s got a very solid hit for average tool, but not much power, which might be surprising for a guy his size.
In a way, he's sort of the opposite of Thomas Field
and is actually a bit like a non-catching Pacheco. It’s interesting the Rockies are doubling up on that type of player.
is he a potential 2 hole hitter?
or not enough average or speed?
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The contact, ability to advance runners is the major thing that Tracy would look for,
so yes, he would fit that prototype pretty well.
You know the rules...
If he plays at second, he hits second.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
by Since1993 on Dec 8, 2011 7:24 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, I was kind of shocked
first thing I saw on his B-R page was his size, expected to see 20 HR seasons dotting his MiLB stats.
Nope….
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dang
is he speedy at all?
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Stole 15 in high A in 2010
9 in the minors last year before he got called up.
No steals with the Cubbies…
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hmm
sounds fast enough to hit second tho. The Rox really lacked a 2 hole hitter last year
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He's 23
Power usually is last to develop.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
Ian, you were the chosen one! It was said that you would destroy the NL, not fail miserably. You were to bring balance to our lineup, not leave it in darkness!
You were our brother, Ian.
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
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by The Lodo Magic Man on Dec 8, 2011 6:51 PM MST via mobile reply actions 11 recs
rec.
perfectly put and hilarious
Im from Canada, eh
by jordanmowbray on Dec 8, 2011 6:54 PM MST up reply actions
It's sad that I knew what that was from Ian, you were!
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2011 off season
Acquire as many scraps as we can.
Sounds like we are trying to polish a turd.
Why didn't O'Dud trade Stewie and Weathers for Halladay, Lee and Utley?
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by Junction Rox on Dec 8, 2011 6:57 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
If the Rockies knew Stewart would bust this year
Gavin Floyd would be a Rockie right now
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Now that you put it that way...
AAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGHHHHH!!!!!
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Easily a precursor to a Seth Smith deal and a Cuddyer/Willingham signing
The pieces are falling into place. I wonder if Smith is dealt for Volquez or included in a larger deal. I could also see Smith being dealt to Boston, with Ortiz firmly in he DH spot once again, they could be looking for an outfielder and they aren’t too enthused about Beltran.
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Yes and no...
Opens up a spot at 3B until Arenado is ready, but surely Colvin isn’t going to replace Smith in RF. To me Colvin is more likely to make Spilly officially gone, and the money they’ve opened up over the last couple days being used to bring in Willingham or Cuddyer to replace Smith. Then Smith can be moved for the best deal they can get – even 2B is a bit less of a gaping open wound now, although it’s obviously still high on the list of needs…
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Wait....that's what I said? We trade Smith and sign Cuddyer
I’m not sure with this trade does with a second base acquisition, but I really get the sense that the Rockies will move away from Kuroda and use Smith to get Volquez in some way
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
I think you're right about Kuroda...
The price tag will chase DOD away. And maybe it should – he’s 37 and his peripherals are slipping. I’m not entirely convinced Volquez isn’t a relative of Frankie Mo but I think his got a lot more upside than Kuroda does.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
No, it's more or less the fact that Kuroda is probably spooked of Coors
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
That could also be a possibility.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
What I was trying to say
and don’t think I ever actually got around to it, is that Colvin probably isn’t the piece that lets us move Smith. But I see this as another move in a series that free up the money to let us sign somebody to let us trade Smith. So yeah, this is a precursor to a Smith deal imo, but it’s not THE precursor.
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I think more Cuddyer.
It seems 3B is no longer an issue to the FO.
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Why do the Reds need another OF?
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JFK
Does this mean no Prado?
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Think it makes Prado more likely, actually.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
how so?
Prado at 3rd?
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That's what I would guess if it happened
with a move to 2B once Arenado takes over at 3B. If LaMehieu steps in and does great, they’ll just have a good problem to deal with…
But I’m tending to agree that Prado is probably unlikely, unless the point of landing Colvin was to make an OF the Braves want available to send with Smith.
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ah i see
LaMehieu is big enough to play first once Helton hangs em up…
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however 1st tends to be
a power position however Helton doesn’t quite fit that bill right now.
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We did pretty damn well for ourselves first base wise compared to the rest of the league
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We ranked 3rd in all of MLB last year in HR by 1B
And were ranked 10th in MLB in WAR. 1B was actually quite a strength. It’s debateable what we’ll get when two old guys get older though, sure.
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by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 8, 2011 7:19 PM MST up reply actions
i was just talkin Helton
who had a surprising powerful year for his age but i forgot to include Giambi
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Probably
Though having three scrap 2Bs instead of two doesn’t really seem like progress
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 8, 2011 7:12 PM MST up reply actions
I'm going to disagree with Franchise26 here.
Prado’s still very unlikely, and it seems the Rockies might be moving on from that.
Well the Rockies will surely want to move Smith now. If not for Prado, perhaps for a pitcher?
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I'm officially nervous about 3B now
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 8, 2011 7:17 PM MST up reply actions
This
Sorta almost makes me wish we still had Wiggy…
…
…
Okay that’s not true I’m just under duress right now. Still, I have a hard time imagining the sorry state the Rox 3B situation will be next season.
Supporting efforts to create a genetic splice of Jonathan Herrera and Troy Tulowitzki since 2011.
The NewNugs 2011 - Officially back on the Bandwagon
I <3 Johnson
by SurfaceThought on Dec 8, 2011 7:20 PM MST up reply actions
LeMahieu could move there if need be.
I think this also makes a Cuddyer deal a little more urgent for that disaster scenario that you’re nervous about.
I think this means a Cuddyer deal is imminent actually
as well as a Smith deal
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
Ugh
maybe this is irrational, but I have already imagine Cuddyer to basically be Wiggy v2.0
Supporting efforts to create a genetic splice of Jonathan Herrera and Troy Tulowitzki since 2011.
The NewNugs 2011 - Officially back on the Bandwagon
I <3 Johnson
by SurfaceThought on Dec 8, 2011 7:24 PM MST up reply actions
It’s a little irrational. Just check the numbers. Cuddyer’s been a lot better hitter.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
I dunno...
Cuddyer’s not much of a pitcher though with a 4.00 WHIP over 1 inning. ;)
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
Starting to feel like Cuddyer will be the big move for the offseason
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 8, 2011 7:23 PM MST up reply actions
cuddyer + volquez
Let’s roll
Bleed purple
sans links
by Rawktober on Dec 9, 2011 8:17 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed
A Stewart/Pacheco platoon seemed like a livable plan until we get Arenado
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
Thats what I was thinking...now I have no idea
Supporting efforts to create a genetic splice of Jonathan Herrera and Troy Tulowitzki since 2011.
The NewNugs 2011 - Officially back on the Bandwagon
I <3 Johnson
by SurfaceThought on Dec 8, 2011 7:23 PM MST up reply actions
Pacheco is perfectly fine by himself
He’s a better option than Stewart, and if all goes well he only has to hold it down for a couple months until Arenado passes whatever the deadline is for not starting his FA clock.
by BostonTransplant on Dec 8, 2011 7:44 PM MST up reply actions
so what's left?
One more starter (Volquez), a relief pitcher (Lidge, Hawkins), one more outfielder (Cuddyer/Willingham/other?) and is that it?
MOZGOD Enthusiast Member 71
Original Thugget Loyalists Member 71
@Garrett_Olsen
There's a small chance for Kuroda out there too,
if he falls through, a more dependable starter might be targeted, but that would require dipping into the farm.
I still think we need an infielder. Going into 2012 with DJ Lemahieu and Jordan Pacheco/Chris Nelson/Jonathan Herrera as half your starting infield is just the worst plan ever.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
A worse plan than Brandon Crawford/Mike Fontenot?
by Rox Girl on Dec 8, 2011 7:21 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Comparing favorably to the Giants offense
doesn’t mean it isn’t a nightmare
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 8, 2011 7:29 PM MST up reply actions
It actually isn't a nightmare. It's being afraid of fear itself rather than being afraid of actual known suckitude.
Well, maybe it is that with Herrera and possible Pacheco, but between Nelson, LeMahieu, Arenado and Field, I don’t know if we’re in that spot. Particularly with Arenado.
I don’t think the Rockies are finished with their infield, yet, but it’s not a terrible chart, it’s just a mostly uncharted chart.
Absolutley agree with this
And that is assuming that Helton/Giambi stay healthy enough throughout the season to man 1B, our only other option in Pacheco now without Wiggy and the possibility of Stewart…
We now have exactly one Infielder that we can really count on to be at least average for the entire 2012 season.
Supporting efforts to create a genetic splice of Jonathan Herrera and Troy Tulowitzki since 2011.
The NewNugs 2011 - Officially back on the Bandwagon
I <3 Johnson
by SurfaceThought on Dec 8, 2011 7:22 PM MST up reply actions
So -- at best -- we've moved laterally this offseason
And that’s probably being kind.
Locking up one or more of Willingham/Cuddyer/Prado changes that. But for now, even the most Purple tinted glasses can’t make the 2012 club look any better than the 2011 edition.
Keep working Dan & co.
They are...
I don’t think anybody here is claiming the roster as it currently stands is better than the one we ended the season with. Well, except for those who already have Arenado on the roster. They might be right.
I'm quite certain they are still at it.
Otherwise, we just have a jumble of moves that don’t really cohere. I do trust O’D to have some sort of plan here, but I’m less than blown away by the moves made thusfar.
So that said, I’m withholding judgement until the dust clears.
didn't hawkins sign with brewers?
I bet we do sign Lidge. rumor says we don’t take on willingham and we’re up there with the twins for Cuddyer for 3 years.
Staring out the window, waiting for spring.
Hawkins signed with the Angels.
I’m surprised you didn’t hear about it, he was their big get at the Winter Meetings.
My man LaTroy...
signed with the Angels. You might have missed in in all the hubbub they created with a couple other signings they made.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
my bad
angels it is. damn they’re gonna be good.
Staring out the window, waiting for spring.
CDI might just be having the last laugh now.
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Yes
and possibly a ring. It may turn out he was the “championship claiber player” Jim Tracy was looking for.
This
"There's no crying in baseball" - Tom Hanks in "A League of Their Own"
"Ninety percent of this game is mental, the other half is physical" - Yogi Berra
"We made too many wrong mistakes" - Yogi Berra (again)
"I believe there is a universal truth to the process of doing things right."
- Huston Street
"Jim Tracy is not my HomeBoy" - me
by purpleJerseygirl on Dec 9, 2011 12:53 PM MST up reply actions
I think they feel good about Cuddyer.
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http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
I agree
Because right now, as the roster is presently constructed, I don’t see how Colvin even makes the team. In fact, he doesn’t seem to have an obvious path to doing so, either, unless Dex stinks again next April or we decide to carry 5 outfielders. And the 2B doesn’t have a guaranteed spot either: He’d have to beat out one of EY, Herrera, and Nelson. If he couldn’t make the Cubs …
There HAS to be a couple moves in the works here. I bet we trade not just Smith but two outfielders, then sign Cuddyer.
by BostonTransplant on Dec 8, 2011 7:48 PM MST up reply actions
OT
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 8, 2011 7:16 PM MST reply actions
Is that really OT?
And isn’t it bad from to refer to your trending? ( I don tknow)
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
I don't know
It’s just amusing
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 8, 2011 7:37 PM MST up reply actions
Oh and congratulations
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
You really know how to piss people from St. Louis off!
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Woops posted in the Rockpile instead of here
I’m not thrilled with the Stewart trade, but we’ll see what we end up buying with all the payroll space.
Either the Rockies are very confident in Arenado’s ability to start next year, or they think that they can pick up a good piece to play 3B this year. Otherwise, I will be very interested to see what happens at 3B this year for the Rox, and I’m definitely not enthused with the possibilities (Jonathan Herrera as starting 3B, anyone?)
Supporting efforts to create a genetic splice of Jonathan Herrera and Troy Tulowitzki since 2011.
The NewNugs 2011 - Officially back on the Bandwagon
I <3 Johnson
do you know how much we freed up?
Arenado will get close to starting but won’t. Pacheco might. I’d bet we sign Cuddyer, put him at 3b and start Young.
Staring out the window, waiting for spring.
That plan would be nothing short of insane
I’ll be furious if that’s the route they go.
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
what else would we do
very little chance we go with Prado. Smith most likely gets us a starting pitcher.
Staring out the window, waiting for spring.
I'd rather stick Arenado or Pacheco at 3B
Than try to shove two square pegs (Cuddyer and Young) into round holes (3B and LF)
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
Young?
Ha.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Not my idea...
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
I thought he was suggesting Young at 2B
Which is, at least, a less insane idea…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
i didn't add that
I meant young at 2nd. due to the winter ball in venezuela placement, pure speed, and fact that nelson and herrerra don’t really get on base, young’s obp last year was .342, nelson was .280, herrera was .310. Young’s fielding sucks, but the steals and obp would be worth it. This is assuming we don’t get Prado.
I guess Pacheco at 3rd and Cuddyer in Left unless Wheeler or Blackmon break through.
Staring out the window, waiting for spring.
Well, it's better than Stewie for Colvin straight up, Iguess.
Hope this young infielder is more than another backup type.
But man, this is a deal that may haunt us. Stewie is still a guy who can put it together and be a monster.
Cubs fans, like Padres fans a few days ago, should be cheering this “change of scenery” move.
I really REALLY doubt it
Stewart is not going to blow up. He is what he is, a big dude with a huge swing and a so-so attitude, whom the league has figured out. I don’t think he can adjust. I think it’s more likely he’s out of baseball than a starting 3B by 2014.
by BostonTransplant on Dec 8, 2011 7:43 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
It's about the same
As the others are basically filler. I don’t see either player ever being a major contribution. Or a minor contribution.
OT: NBA nixing the CP3 trade to the Lakers.
LOL
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Sounds like the owners/Board of Governors
basically told Stern this deal was not happening. I find it interesting they even tried to do it with the NBA owning the franchise.
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
If by interesting you mean...
what?
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
A league owned franchise
has NO business making a trade that changes the balance of power like that one would have.
Of course, David Stern was probably just salivating at the chance to load up another marquee team with another superstar. It has always been his vision for the league, and he’s never been terribly shy about it.
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Dec 8, 2011 9:19 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
I see O'Dowd's plan now...
Replace low AVG high OBP guys (Iannetta, Stew to some degree) with higher AVG less patient guys (Hernandez, LeMahieu) though Colvin is both low AVG and low OBP.
We had the lowest team batting average in franchise history last season and set a low mark for runs scored too. Addressing the AVG problem is a start, but they need more.
Sorta
I actually think it’s more about personality and attitude than skills. You never know what guys are really like in the clubhouse, but this smells to me a lot like a cleaning out of guys who weren’t with the program. Sorry if that offends fans of particular players, but it’s what my instinct says.
by BostonTransplant on Dec 8, 2011 7:50 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Or maybe a lot of players
looking to get out because of the manager?
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Seems less likely.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
That happens sometimes, too, but ...
Players (unless they’re Tulo level) don’t usually get to dictate like that.
by BostonTransplant on Dec 8, 2011 7:52 PM MST up reply actions
No they don't get to dictate, but it can affect the overall clubhouse attitude
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Yeah, if they went as FA defections, maybe.
But it seems O’Dowd and Tracy are more hand-in-glove.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
You can see this AVG emphasis in the players the team is more keen on from the minors as well.
Pacheco over Field, pushing Arenado, etc.., it definitely seems that contact is a priority for the Rockies after going several years without paying it much attention at all. I think the pendulum probably has gone too far that direction, some balance could be nice.
Maybe DOD thinks contact skills play better on the road...
And the enormous drop off and struggles of the offense away from Coors can be addressed with better contact guys.
I really get the sense that something huge is brewing
We haven’t taken one look at an infield free agent at all, we completely cleared the field at second base and third base (I don’t believe for a second LeMahieu goes in as the second base starter unless O’Dowd fails at what he’s planning), and we’re stocking up on outfielders, yet we don’t want to trade anyone but Smith. We’re in the middle of a hard pursuit of Cuddyer. Frank Wren said at the meetings that a player he didn’t expect to be traded became available at the meetings, while the Rockies were in the middle of discussing the beginnings of Stewart for Colvin.
Why does this have to happen during finals week?
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
and when I say huge, I don't mean just the writing on the wall here that says we get Cuddyer and Prado
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
There was talk on Talking Chop of us trading Cargo
Dear God, I hope not…
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
You shut up right now :)
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
I'm pretty sure it was just a pipe dream on their part
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
that would one hell of a return
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Heyward/Prado/Jurrjens
I’d actually consider that
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
they wouldn't
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
I know
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
Boy Alan Johnson might help
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
I wish we still had Quintanilla
he sure would have helped.
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
The only person on that blog that shows reason is C
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
Nah...
There’s plenty of good posters. The problem is that the site is widely popular with Braves fans (I think it’s the 2nd or 3rd largest SBN baseball team blog, but don’t quote me), so there’s a ton of people that do post. It takes awhile to distinguish exactly who’s really got good insight and the folks that are a little inconsistent but generally have good ideas.
You can usually point the poorly thought-out posters out pretty quick, though, which is probably why you feel that way…
The Braves fans on MLBTR usually kill me infinitely more than the TC folks. Sometimes I have to beg them to shut up with the hopes that some credibility in the fanbase can be maintained.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Relax
Go back over there and tell them I know for a fact we are getting Heyward and Tehran for Spilly and Reynolds. ;)
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
I'm banned there
I made comments after that game that FrankieMo got screwed over
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
I was thinking that maybe the Rockies might be willing to part with Fowler in the right deall
/runs
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
they certainly might
if they view Cargo as a CF then Dex is a decent trade chip
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Then again, they though Hanson+Heyward+Yunel>Ubaldo+Cargo+Tulo
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 8, 2011 8:10 PM MST up reply actions
Oh my
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
That was April 2010
so it was fair then
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 8, 2011 8:18 PM MST up reply actions
But still so completely wrong.
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
But they would give us Prado
and only make us throw in Wheeler instead of Arenado…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
You really should have planned your college career around all of this :)
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
I'm not too sure on this.
DOD was clear over the summer that a housecleaning was coming. This included most underperforming guys:
Stewart
Smith
CDI
Nelson
Two are left.
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Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Well, Smith is already a goner, we just don't know what we're getting for him
Haven’t the Reds had interest in Nelson before?
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
Smith, Blackmon/Wheeler and Nelson for prado
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Nelson is out of options
The Braves have no place to play Nelson.
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
they have been seeking a backup SS, Nelson or Herrera might suffice
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Nelly might actually be a reasonable part of that package.
Local kid and all. First rounder, may still have upside. Fast enough to steal home.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
I like Nelson and his ability to replace Prado defensively plus back up
Pastornicky may or may not help
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Isn't Pastornicky their only SS for now?
And Prado can’t play it (or hasn’t.) They did have another guy in the AFL Terdostovitch or something… I think Nelson would be a good piece for them. Not a huge piece but of some value.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
Fredi would like him.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
Terderslovich or whatever it is ...
is a third baseman. And a damn good one. For awhile he was hitting better than Arenado at AFL.
by BostonTransplant on Dec 8, 2011 8:42 PM MST up reply actions
He's a 1B...
But played 3B collegiately (??) and is moving back to the position because of his accomplishments thus far. Obviously blocked at first, so 3B is next on the list. If he can’t do that, they’ll probably try LF.
The big name prospect writers still see him only as a utility/backup guy, but the organization and people following the Braves in general are starting to think he could be something more than that. But he has to hit AA pitching before anyone’s going to be sold on him being anything more than that.
That said, dude’s breaking minor league doubles records and what-not, so there is some upside to be had. I’m really hoping he turns out to be a player that can start everyday at an above-average level.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Cool, thanks...
So, he’s not ready yet for the bigs. Thus, i continue to think Nelson would make some sense for the Braves as their backup SS.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
Correct...
He’s still at least a couple years away, imo. Very interesting prospect at this point, could really ratchet up his value if he comes close to repeating at AA.
I’d love to see him become a suitable replacement for Chipper, as he’s also a switch-hitter and that’s something the Braves will need moving forward. Far too many LH hitters on the team currently.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Not in this case...
They’re looking at a veteran with plenty of experience to back up Pastornicky if he should fail in his rookie campaign. I think they’re shooting a little higher than Nelson or Herrera, in that respect.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
If they want to spend $$$, they could always see something in a nice Furcal...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
they will never deal with Furcal's agent again if they can help it
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Has LeMahieu played more 3B or 2B?
If the former, then I suppose he’s backup if Arenado doesn’t perform (or filler until June to give Arenado more seasoning & not start his service time ticking).
If the latter, then he’s probably seen as the leading candidate for the Rockies’ Eternal Black Hole (2B)
3B
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I was looking at 2011.
But yes, I was wrong if you include the whole scope of his career.
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And a lot at SS in the low minors
I’d say Johnny Herrera’s job is in serious jeopardy. And that Thomas Field is probably headed to AAA.
Those minor league stats show one thing for sure: not near enough power to be anything but a temp at 3B.
So my guess is: 3B until June, then 2B atter Nelson, Young, Herrera et al. fail there & Arenado tears up Tulsa
we've said above that lack of power is his drawback
But he will develop a bit more than he’s shown to date. The Cubs system outside of that AZ Rookie club has some notoriously stingy parks for young hitters too when it comes to HR numbers. Colvin never hit more than 14 HR’s in any minor league season before clubbing out 20 as a rookie in the Friendly Confines.
Welp ...
Christina Kahrl;
Maybe it’s just me, but the nice thing about moving LeMahieu in Stewart deal is squelching the nonsense about playing him at 3B. Ever.
Herrera suffered that bad injury too...
I think his days being Jonny Sparkplug are behind us.
yeah with Barney and Castro 3B was more of a need
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
HOLY CRAP
Oh wait, that’s not right.
Meh. Yeah, that’s more like it.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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by Muzia on Dec 8, 2011 7:59 PM MST reply actions 1 recs
Kid's learning the hard way that baseball teams aren't forever.
He share’s Stew’s initials.
I told him there would be new people to cheer for.
"Are they called the Rockies because they rock?" - 7 y.o.
by glaucophane on Dec 8, 2011 8:03 PM MST via iPhone app reply actions
We should go get Ichiro Suzuki to make him feel better....
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
The in-laws live in Seattle; kid could just become a Mariners fan.
"Are they called the Rockies because they rock?" - 7 y.o.
it does
Make me a little sad to say goodbye to what seems like a whole wave of Rockies history (2009), but onward!
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Dec 8, 2011 11:05 PM MST via iPhone app up reply actions
Don't know if anyone has noticed
But ST can be kind of reunion time in Phoenix – all of the teams we’ve just traded with are in the Cactus League (except for Philadelphia – oh well on that one).
"There's no crying in baseball" - Tom Hanks in "A League of Their Own"
"Ninety percent of this game is mental, the other half is physical" - Yogi Berra
"We made too many wrong mistakes" - Yogi Berra (again)
"I believe there is a universal truth to the process of doing things right."
- Huston Street
"Jim Tracy is not my HomeBoy" - me
by purpleJerseygirl on Dec 9, 2011 1:01 PM MST up reply actions
Should have just thrown in Greg Reynolds and Chris Nelson too
Then taken O’Dowd down to the Platte River for full-body dunk, and washed away those first-round sins in one fell swoop.
I actually think Stewart will rebound to some degree, and be a serviceable, high-strikeout, 25-30 HR guy at some point. I think Colvin can play too, I just don’t see what the -- we want with another LH-hitting OF who may or may not be ready to contribute. Kinda full there already.
I'm thinking we're moving a couple of those LH-hitting OFs
For Martin Prado
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
Or something.
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I really think this is more of a Cuddyer-based move.
If they have that deal in the bag, they would want to make this trade first, then announce the signing. We’ll see though.
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Redundant.
I think it’s a LH OF + something else. But NOT Colvin.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Dec 8, 2011 8:20 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
Redundant.
I think it’s a LH OF + something else. But NOT Colvin.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Dec 8, 2011 8:20 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I find the fact that this is a double post to be hilarious
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Hahaha me too.
I laughed.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Dec 8, 2011 8:43 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I think there is a possibility that it won’t be full pretty soon.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Dec 8, 2011 8:09 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
It just clicked in my mind...
Colvin was the guy impaled by a broken bat. He and Nicasio should get along.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
Too soon, man...
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
It helps to talk about these thngs with someone who's been there.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
Anyway...
Two tough guys.
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
A lot is two words. Allot can be one word but it has another meaning.
The only time you really want to use "myself" is when you are the recipient of your own action. Usually you're better off using "me."
Your is not the correct contraction of you are. The word you're looking for is you're.
It's anyway, not anyways.
But if you only remember one thing...
There are no apostrophes in plurals.
pitching
Where the heck is the pitching coming from? They better get a rotation and how much longer does ownership give DOD and BG a pass.
Uranus.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Dec 8, 2011 8:13 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
icwydt
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
That never stops being funny. Never.
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It really never does. Never.
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
We have like 18 starting pitchers
So it’ll come from there
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 8, 2011 8:19 PM MST up reply actions
Two closers: Brothers and Betancourt.
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Heres your rotation then
SP: Chacin
SP: Pomeranz
SP: White
SP: Hammel
SP: De La Rosa
SP: Nicasio
SP: Slowey
SP: Chatwood
SP: Rodgers
SP: Bettis
SP: Friedrich
(Reynolds, Riordan, Scahill as Depth)
President of Baseball Operations for the PRMLB Atlanta Braves
Only three depth guys in case of injury
So more 10th or 11th starters are needed
President of Baseball Operations for the PRMLB Atlanta Braves
by jlbroxfan on Dec 8, 2011 8:26 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Awesome.
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God, you just gave Jim Tracy ideas...boo!
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
There is no possible way to give Jim Tracy ideas on how to maximize matchups
Hes tried them all. Hes just never had the talent to pull this one off
President of Baseball Operations for the PRMLB Atlanta Braves
Does he go behind Friedrich & Bettis or ahead?
President of Baseball Operations for the PRMLB Atlanta Braves
You know, I don't know how bad our rotation will be, honestly
There are a lot of if’s, for sure, but taken individually, none of them are really counting on huge break-outs, and we have some back-up plans. With just a modest run of good luck, we’ll be pretty good.
I see it like this: We start out with two guys with ace potential in Pom and Chacin. Neither has been an ace, but both have the raw material. Say one of them does break out. Then we have Nicasio at a solid #3. That’s not bad. Slowey is a bad #4 probably, but he’s been an effective pitcher before and is healthy. And Hammel as a #5 is really fine. Not too many teams other than the Phillies have a much better one. And we get a third guy with near ace stuff back mid-season, although he might not be all there for a while. Plus we’ve got Bettis, Chatwood, and White hanging around. One of those could easily break in next year. And for a real longshot, maybe Rogers finds himself too. There’s a lot of REALLY good arms in that group.
Yeah, a few teams are better in the NL. Maybe half. But it’s not half as bad as people seem to think.
by BostonTransplant on Dec 8, 2011 8:31 PM MST up reply actions
Well, yeah. SF is in a different class, obviously, and Arizona is pretty damn good too.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
SF is in a different class IF they can stay healthy
If not, they’re totally screwed, as they have no depth.
by BostonTransplant on Dec 8, 2011 8:47 PM MST up reply actions
not sure if AZ stays that good next year
Hudson may improve, Kennedy is unlikely to have that season again, double ditto Collmenter, quintuple ditto on Saunders. On offense Roberts has the one successful year but he is 32 and has a pretty short track record, Parra likely sees his BABIP plummet. I am a lot more scared of the 2014 DBacks than I am of the 2012 DBacks
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
They have venom still in AZ.
A full season of Goldschmidt will be a big plus, and there are enough near-ready OF prospects to pick up the slack if Parra comes to earth. They’ve got Wheeler coming up at third soon, too.
Kennedy’s solid enough that even a regression year will hold plenty of value, as is Collmenter. They do need to replace Saunders, I think, but if they get Gio or Cahill, that would be accomplished. I really see them as the pretty clear division favorites right now for next season.
Hard not to view winners as favorites
Snakes have a lot of depth, but so far they haven’t done anything to improve the team from last year. Just re-signed the 2011 final roster. But with LA and SF with their hands tied and SD years away, AZ may not need to improve to be the favorites.
by NLWestBaseball on Dec 8, 2011 10:12 PM MST up reply actions
That theory sounds vaguely familiar
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
Do you think Goldschmidt is a good model for Arenado this year?
Also, I’m not sold on Wheeler being an impact, he also seems like he’s at least a year away from sticking in the majors.
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
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The players are so dissimilar, I'm not sure I understand the question regarding Goldschmidt/Arenado...
I’m assuming you mean the model of AZ wasting time with him in the minors for a couple of months before they realized that he would be winning more games for them than Brandon Allen? Maybe. If that’s going to be the case, I hope the Rockies have Arenado as their 3B on day one. If he still needs more time, than give him more time.
I guess in short I’m saying that no, Goldschmidt’s not a good model.
So you think August is too late to wait on Nolan?
Personally I would like to see him in June. While I don’t want to see a struggling 3B while a hot Arenado is tearing the cover off the ball in Tulsa, I also don’t want to rush him or his arbitration clock.
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
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I'm unconcerned about the arbitration clock if he's ready.
I would delay him if he’s not, but otherwise, if he’s the best option for the team in April and not showing any developmental glitches that require more time on the farm, I would say to go ahead and start him in the majors.
It will feel like a complete rebuild to many that way, but it will allow him to develop and gel at the MLB level with the young pitching staff, Fowler, Rosario, etc.., the team we hope he’s a part of and big contributor to when they’re successful.
I'd agree with that, but there's a ton of pitching in our division
And I’d argue if we can add Prado and Cuddyer, for example, we’d have the best offense in the division. And our pitching staff has a ton of potential. I’m serious. We really do have four guys with #2 stuff in Chacin, Pom, Nicasio, and DLR, and a bunch of good arms to choose from for #5. It’s asking a lot from lady luck to expect all that to pan out, but the talent is there.
I don’t necessarily think we need another big question mark like Volquez. If we can acquire a non-question-mark middle of the rotation guy, then I’d be thrilled.
by BostonTransplant on Dec 8, 2011 8:46 PM MST up reply actions
OT: Scary snowman
this is pretty funny
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsSwvrgZH9c&feature=player_embedded
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
It's a bit NSFW for language
Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger was /2011'd
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
TwinkieTown has some interesting Cuddyer dish...
Apparently he likes Minnesota, but has asked them for $2 million more or a fourth season. This would jive with my thought that the Rockies offer is 3/$27 million, and he might be going back to Minny to see if they’ll match it. The Rockies and Cardinals are in play, but “aren’t as high up on the list,” and he should make a decision by this weekend.
The source of this is Lindsay Guentzel, a Minnesota sports preps reporter, but she’s not on the Twins beat. Still seems like the news could be legit.
Wow, she's quite the fisherman..
really knows how to bait a hook.
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." ~ Red Barber
PRMLB - Phillies
Rob Neyer's blog post on the trade made me laugh.
(link)
This in particular:
…last season Stewart was on the DL seventeen times and batted .037 with negative-six RBIs when he did play for the Rockies.
Somehow the hyperbole still feels like an understatement.
Eh, this looks like a trade for the sake of doing a trade
Trading Stewart for a bunch of nothing really doesn’t make sense. Rather just keep Stewart.
Colorado Offense: Making bad pitchers look like CY Young Winners.
by Colsportsfan on Dec 8, 2011 10:12 PM MST via mobile reply actions
On the field, I almost agree
I think this trade was motivated just as much by off the field issues
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 8, 2011 10:19 PM MST up reply actions
This was a no-win year with Ian though..
either he sucked on a stick, or he was good/decent and cost us millions in dollars of arbitration. And with Arenado in the wings, why spend the money on Stewart when we could spend the money on another platoon OF?
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." ~ Red Barber
PRMLB - Phillies
Getting rid of Stewart is fine....
I just feel his ceiling is still higher than any of the guys we got in return (his ceiling being, hit .200, 15 HRs with a ton of Ks and above avg defense). Hence the trade made no sense to me, except for maybe saving a couple million $
Colorado Offense: Making bad pitchers look like CY Young Winners.
by Colsportsfan on Dec 8, 2011 10:52 PM MST up reply actions
Tyler Colvin did better than that ceiling in 2010...
How can you say he doesn’t have that ceiling if he’s already gone higher than it? That makes no sense.
Ah, Stewie
Man, I wish you could have been great. I had a total re-write of “The Ballad of Sweeney Todd” ready to go for you when you broke out. (The Demon Bomber of Blake Street). I really enjoyed talking to you at DIA. Best of luck. Just don’t come back to kill us, k?
/Team HAR diminishes again. (Yeah, I always thought he was cute.)
I miss the magic. (h/t papality)
Don't know which one, but...
ONE of these trades could come back to haunt us. I strongly feel that one of CDI, Street, Ubaldo, or Stewart will have a surprisingly good season in 2012. Maybe more than one of them. We can only hope we get a commensurate strong year from one of Pom, White, Colvin, DJL, Chatwood, or Hernandez. If we don’t…
You're probably right
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 8, 2011 10:20 PM MST up reply actions
Completing my thought...
IF we don’t, O’Dowd is really exposing himseslf here to some major criticism. They’ll say "he holds on to certain players too long (Atkins, Hawpe, etc.) while others he gives up on too soon. His sense of timing is atrocious. Or some such. To blunt this critique, DOD HAS to make a MAJOR deal or two that brings in MLB talent that helps in 2012, which would go a long way toward both making people forget those trade(s) that haunted us as well as help preserve his job.
For that reason, I see one or two blockbusters coming.
He's putting a lot on the line, certainly...
but I think we sort of saw this coming with the Ubaldo trade. I am surprised by how far he’s put his neck out with the return in the Iannetta and Street trades, but this one not so much. It’s the one most expected trade of the four, and perhaps the least imaginative.
I agree...
Street and Iannetta, together in a package or separately, might have returned so much more than young Mr. Chatwood and the PTBNL with any sort of patience and skill in negotiating and working the phones. Also, the need to shed salary in advance or immediately concurrent with adding salary is a bad practice, IMO. For example, bring in Hernandez, and then there’s plenty of time to shop the expendable Iannetta. He doesn’t have to go the same day! Trading Street to free up salary to make a subsequent move is even more unnecessary, IMO. Street will have market value this winter, regardless of when he’s traded, maybe even more once the closer market gets tighter.
Okay, I think he put his neck out with the returns,
exposing it to this criticism, which could turn out fair, but I actually agree with the Iannetta sequence and trade (Colorado was losing leverage fast once Hernandez approved the terms of the deal, the price for Iannetta would not have gone up later) and I know we disagree on what returns were possible for the two players. No need to hash that out again.
What I’m saying is that there’s definitely a lot he’s left open to critics here, and avoiding the fallout of that will be next to impossible if his off season plan doesn’t display that it’s helped the club in 2012.
"if his off season plan doesn’t display that it’s helped the club in 2012"
unless he acknowledges that improving for 2012 isn’t the real goal. Until I see a legit P acquisition, I’m not going to assume he’s shooting for 2012.
AZSnakePit had a great post earlier this year
where most of the improvements between 2010 and 2011 was simply cutting deadwood from the roster.
We could be doing the same thing here.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
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Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
I'm not sure that's a time-honored recipe for success
Its not a bad plan overall, and I don’t really have a huge problem with anything we’ve seen so far (even if I don’t think they are all great on-paper deals) but its quite a stretch to think this team will be good in 2012 as presently constituted. Who knows.
Let me be clear, because I was probably being too subtle with a preposition...
Helping the club in 2012 does not mean winning the division, going to the playoffs or some goal that might prove out of reach for the current roster at its current age. It means helping it get to a point where that’s the realistic scenario for it going forward. If the club does happen to win next year, because the division still isn’t that good and we have quick development great, but by helping the club in 2012, I haven’t set a specific win target or anything. I think it should be made pretty clear, however, that the Rockies have turned the ship around from the last two years.
Fair enough
but since the last few years were intended to be competitive years, its not going to “sell” to try to straddle the line between rebuilding (or, if you prefer, loading for the future) and competing. He’s going to have to come down one way or another eventually, though his next set of moves/lack thereof will probably do all the talking.
I think that I've said that this line would be more difficult to straddle in another division.
If the D-backs do make another move or two, it could be that way in the NL West too, but there’s not a 90 win team in this race right now, so I don’t think he has to make an early concession speech just yet. I’m not sure I’d want him to, anyway, even if it was true.
Again, fair enough
but its not something that will “sell”. Maybe he doesn’t have to sell, given the kiddie-gloves media treatment in Denver. He might be able to get away with the standard “well we think we’re ready to make a run and we believe in this talent” stuff. I dunno. His plan to date has been, as Muzia noted, to cut dead weight. Let’s see what he does next.
The trade value of players virtually never goes up
once teams know that you have to trade them. With Iannetta and Hernandez under contract, and Rosario on the doorstep, every GM in the game would have known Iannetta was being dealt, almost completely regardless of the return.
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Dec 8, 2011 10:55 PM MST up reply actions
This trade, BTW....
was not really so bad. It’s just not really that good, and I don’t see DJL to be anything more than a utility guy long term. Reading the Cubs message board was interesting and somewhat revealing as well.
If only one comes back to haunt us we sholu be fine.
We will need the Ubaldo trade to work out regardless, I think, and one of these other more recent moves. I think we can survive one loser trade just fine, two flopping will probably make it not worth all the movement.
That's all I needed to hear:
we should be fine
by Rox Girl on Dec 8, 2011 9:22 PM PST
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." ~ Red Barber
PRMLB - Phillies
I also would bet one of these trades comes back to haunt the other team.
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
How the world will end in 2012: George of the Roses builds a Machine that Pommels everyone with La Violencia during Whiteouts.
Let's hope so...
We had so few pleasant surprises, and several major flops in 2011. Maybe 2012 will be the opposite.
that trade is so meh
but at least colvin’s barely got platoon splits: his batting line is about equally terrible regardless which flavor of pitcher he’s up against, and actually did better against lefties than rights in 2010
From Ian
IAN_STEWART_9 Ian Stewart
Want to thank the whole Rockies organization for the opportunities given to me over the last 9 years. Some of my very best friends came from
The Rockies organization including meeting my wife. Going to miss all my old teammates. Media and TV personnel were also outstanding and
first class. With that being said, really looking forward to the new opportunity with the Cubs organization the new relationships to be made
Also want to thank all the Rox fans for sticking with me in the good and bad times. Gonna miss y’all!
I'm not disappointed that he's being moved
as I see it best for both him and the team, but I do hope he can salvage a career. He may not slop hogs or whatever, but he’s not a bad guy and I’ll root for him.
I would eat pancakes with him any day.
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
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PRMLB - Phillies
All the deals so far...
has been for salary relief and AAA fillers. Which this trade reeks of. There has been nothing yet done that will have an immediate positive impact to the team other than signing Hernandez, which is essentially a replacement to CDI.
Getting rid of Stewart now leave a hole at 3rd base (meaning Nolan is not ready), still need to fill 2nd base. All this Salary relief better mean bringing in an impact player at some point. Cause so far the Rockies off season is pretty meh.
Colorado Offense: Making bad pitchers look like CY Young Winners.
The Rockies haven't made the playoffs the last two seasons..
and yet their payroll is getting higher. What were you expecting?
A) a season of hoping and praying for a turnaround
or
B) churning through players to try and improve
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
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PRMLB - Phillies
It's not clear it's getting higher...
Unless subsequent player moves are made.
There is absolutely no reason to believe it won't
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Dec 8, 2011 11:00 PM MST up reply actions
Look at the expected payroll..
on the Rockies Baseball Reference page, and you’ll see the payroll was expected to rise above $96million by 2013. Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta and Ubaldo were all in line to earn more money over the next two years. The FO wasn’t ready to pay more for another 2010 and 2011 worth of production.
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." ~ Red Barber
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Colsportsfan expects a massive trade for a hugely overpaid celebrity player
Colsportsfan thinks he supports the Yankees for some reason.
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
Also from Casey Weathers
caseymweathers Casey Weathers
Wanted to say Thank You to the Colorado Rockies for letting me be a part of their organization for the last 4.5 years. (cont.)
I made life long friends there, that will stay with me beyond baseball. I am also incredibly excited to start the next chapter (cont.)
of my career with the Chicago Cubs. I am very happy that they feel comfortable adding me to their organization
Hard to get too excited, but this trade is okay
NEIFI says:
Colvin: .239 ABR, average defensive corner OF = -0.27 WAR
LeMahieu: .223 ABR, -1 defense at 2B = -0.46 WAR
Stewart: .251 ABR, average defense at 3B = 0.90 WAR
Weathers: 6.85 ERC, -1.87 WAR
Stewart has around $4m surplus value, based on that projection and his likely arbitration salary. ProspectBot values LeMahieu at $3.72m, as the now 10th-best prospect in the Rockies organization and #282 overall (he’s young enough to have some promise, even if he’s not ready to contribute in 2012). Colvin is 26 years old and below replacement level, I don’t see any value there (in simple terms, there are two significant differences between Stewart and Colvin. One is defensive value, the other is that Stewart had a track record prior to 2010 and Colvin didn’t). Weathers, obviously, has no value at all.
So as far as the value exchange is concerned, this is a fair, boring trade. Not much else to say until we see how O’Dowd fills the now-gaping hole at third base.
definitely higher than I'd have him
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Dec 9, 2011 7:18 AM MST via mobile up reply actions
Umm yeah…the French just don’t crack our top 10
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Dec 9, 2011 7:19 AM MST up reply actions
Low ceiling but a high floor
I think that is what makes him attractive as a prospect…. 10th seems a bit high for me, but I could easily fit him in the top 20.
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
Let's compare LeMahieu to some of the guys who I'm guessing you (or others) would rank above him
Kyle Parker: LeMahieu is only one year older than Parker, outhit him by a comfortable margin last year (remember, Asheville is the most extreme hitters’ park in all of the minor leagues), and has more defensive value.
Rosell Herrera: an average Pioneer League hitter at age 18. I understand there’s potential there, but he’s probably got what, a 15% chance of reaching the majors? He’s just too far away to rank very highly. And from what I understand, he’s not going to stay at shortstop, so he’s not going to have more defensive value than LeMahieu… ranking him highly is banking on dramatic offensive improvement.
Trevor Story: I like him more than Herrera… ultimately, this one comes down to how much you want to read into a 200-PA sample. ProspectBot is cautious – if not for the regression component of the algorithm, Story would rank above LeMahieu.
Rafael Ortega: coming off a lousy season (again, Asheville… his .294/.333/.438 is a lot worse than it looks), still a long, long way away.
Albert Campos: hard to be too excited about a guy who has never managed an average strikeout rate at any level.
Another way to look at it: if Rosell Herrera follows the standard aging curve from here on out, he’ll peak at a .218 ABR. If LeMahieu follows the standard aging curve, he’ll peak at .234. That’s a pretty big difference. Herrera is younger and thus has more time to break the standard curve, but he’s fighting an uphill battle.
My point here is not to denigrate our farm system, but rather to illustrate that once you get into the 10-15 range in a typical farm system (and our system is pretty typical), you’re looking at some really questionable talents. LeMahieu might not have the ceiling that some of these guys do, but he’s so much more advanced than any of them that ranking him ahead of them is perfectly justifiable.
by Heltonfan on Dec 9, 2011 7:46 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Disagree vehemently ...
Recognizing that you have your number crunching scheme, sometimes you need to take numbers with a grain (or mound) of salt.
Prospecting is just that – guessing on which guys will pan out. Yes, numbers can certainly inform the guess, but when they lead you to put a Top 10 ranking on a guy who can’t really play defense, and has only one too (hit) with zero power and has a “high floor” of maybe a utility player and low ceiling of umm … utility player on a championship club … I mean wow.
I would have him anywhere from 17th to 30th on my list as all the others at least have a chance of being more. So that puts him in the ranks of all the org-filler types who maybe pan out as a Utility/bullpen arm sort.
Maybe I don't know the point of Prospect Bot
But that doesn’t have to stop me from disagreeing with the results. LeMahieu came in at #17 on BP’s 2012 Cubbie’s list, and I know we can all agree our Top 10 is far better than the Cubbies.
.
http://neifiprojections.wordpress.com/prospectbot-explained/
ProspectBot is, as the name suggests, a purely statistical prospect ranking system. It was created prior to the 2008 season, in an effort to 1) do better than other similar attempts, such as Nate Silver’s PECOTA-based prospect rankings and the hilariously awful Baseball Notebook lists (an example of which can be found here), and 2) see if it was possible to engineer a purely statistical system that produces just as good a list as the leaders in the industry (Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein, John Sickels) do.
The theory here is that what the ProspectBot loses by not having the subjective input of scouts, it makes up for by analyzing the numbers better than anyone else and being, well, robotically consistent in its assessment criteria. Is it successful? Well, that’s tough to answer, because evaluating prospect lists is no easier than creating them. But the ProspectBot lists do match the experts’ lists very closely, and the system can serve to highlight players whose numbers don’t match their hype (in either direction). And it should only get better with time.
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
Thanks for the explanation
But I think it is clear that this is certainly a prime example of wher PB fails to match the experts’ lists. If you want to stand behind PB’s prediction of LeMahieu as a Top 10 Purp … by all means. Just don’t expect me to blindly follow.
PB does a great job
recognizing guys who will probably be solid regulars in the major leagues, while experts list sometime favor tools to heavily and I would venture to say have more flame outs. Think Franklyn Morales for an example. PB wasn’t around when he was a prospect, but I think PB would’ve done a better job recognizing that he would suck, over list like BA that had him as a top 20 prospect in baseball.
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
Morales is a bad example
PBot was born four winters ago… at that time, I had Morales at #25 overall. Obviously I’ve refined the system a lot since then, but I think he’d still have ranked pretty highly.
But yes, basically, I think the industry as a whole still values tools too heavily. Remember a year ago when everyone was fawning over Domonic Brown? PBot ranked him #83 overall; he performed more or less as the statistics said he would, and now he’s a forgotten man. Kyle Drabek is another one who the scouts absolutely loved, but PBot wasn’t nearly as high on (#57 overall). Or Aaron Hicks (#95 overall last year). And obviously, there are success stories in the other direction. PBot ranked Brandon Beachy #83 overall last year; I’m sure none of the “experts” had him in their top 100. Now, obviously, there are plenty of counterexamples as well… I’m not out to claim that PBot is vastly superior to other lists, but I do think it’s just as good, probably a bit better.
Another point to consider here is that scouts misread players’ ceilings all the time. How many scouts thought that Dustin Pedroia or Ben Zobrist could be a 5-WAR guy? How many scouts saw C.J. Wilson as a potential ace, or Doug Fister as a potential #2? How many scouts thought that David Robertson could turn into the best reliever in the American League? Assessing a player’s ceiling is an extremely inexact science as well. There’s a very real chance that LeMahieu’s ceiling is higher than people think it is, and ProspectBot implicitly accounts for that chance.
by Heltonfan on Dec 9, 2011 10:07 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Arenado
.236 ABR for 2012 (fantastic for someone his age, of course), now the #40 prospect in baseball. The AFL really boosted his stock.
So maybe instead of watching
our organization ruin him before we sell low on him, we should actually sell high on him
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Dec 9, 2011 6:47 AM MST up reply actions
who here suggest that?
No one in their right mind would trade Arenado right now.
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
Seriously
it was kinda a joke? Because we keep selling low on everybody
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Dec 9, 2011 7:09 AM MST up reply actions
well we could've had Parra for Stewart
at last years trading deadline….. that would’ve been a much better package then the crap we got last night.
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
eh
.236 ABR doesn’t do much for me. I hope the organization doesn’t plan for him to be the opening day 3b…
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
Yeah, of course
He’s not ready yet, and this talk of rushing him is absurd. But he’s a heck of a prospect. Among guys born in 1991, only Mike Trout (obviously) and Oswaldo Arcia have higher ABR projections…
right
and i should rephrase my above statement. The .236 ABR doesn’t do much for me in the sense that their is talk of rushing him. I’m not discounting the fact that he is a great prospect, and could very well atone for the mistake of drafting Greg Reynolds over Longoria.
I worry that we are going to rush him though, and go into the season with no real answer at 2b or 3b.
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
If you use this standard, though, there will only be one or two prospects each season in the majors worth
calling up, yet a cursory glance at the wOBA’s of rookies over the last few years suggests that there’s more than a handful. I really don’t know how you can say for sure that he’s “not ready” without knowing more than the statistics will tell us. We do know he’s very close and that you yourself admit that he’s taken a large leap forward in the AFL. I’d argue that leap had already taken place, and another leap or step might be taking place.
I didn't say he took a large leap forward in the AFL
I said the AFL really boosted his stock. That’s an important distinction. (The first is a claim about his true talent, the second is merely a claim about our estimates of his true talent).
And this ties in to something you wrote about Colvin earlier in this thread as well, namely that his ceiling can’t be lower than his 2010 performance (or something to that effect)… sure it can. We don’t know how good Colvin really was (i.e. what his true talent level was) in 2010. All we know is that performance = talent + luck, and based on the rest of Colvin’s career, it seems overwhelmingly likely that there was a huge amount of luck in that performance. And similarly, we don’t know what Arenado’s true talent level was this summer, nor do we know what it was this fall… all we know is that he performed well enough in the fall to significantly raise our multi-year weighted average estimate of his true talent level.
And re: “there will only be one or two prospects each season worth calling up”, you forgot to add the important qualifier at the end there… from Single-A. I don’t even know when the last time was that a team carried a non-Rule 5 position player with no AA or AAA experience on its Opening Day roster. It just doesn’t happen.
Okay...
For Colvin, I said he had already shot well past the ridiculous ceiling that poster gave (.200/15 HR/tons of K’s) as the high he thought any of the three position players could reach. I probably could have made my argument a bit more numbers oriented, but I figure that’s what people who crunch the numbers should be able to say better than I could. None did, so maybe I was wrong to be so strong. If you can tell me that there’s less than a 10% chance that he’ll achieve those numbers with the Rockies, then I’ll accept that as a valid numerical ceiling argument, maybe even 25% if you’re particularly conservative. His skills suggest he should be capable of more than that, though, and he did actually achieve it that one season. I’d actually argue that number is closer to a floor than a ceiling.
Similarly for Arenado, what I’m saying is that the estimate of his true talent level is just that, an estimate. During the summer, fall, winter and next spring, the Rockies need to do the most they can to figure out what it actually is. I’m leaving it open to the possibility that the true talent is MLB ready, which even your estimate should show there’s a non-zero chance of. I’m fine with the most likely scenario saying that he’ll need to go back to AA to refine his true talent, but it shouldn’t be a situation that he’s forced to go to AA just to satisfy a numbers argument that he’s ready, if he already is ready.
And while I’ll buy precedent as making it less likely that the Rockies do put Arenado on their opening day roster, I won’t buy that they should make this decision based on that. I’d point to Starlin Castro’s 2010 as another example of a player that really didn’t need the 26 games of AA seasoning that the Cubs gave him that year. I know they’re different players and that Castro had a little AA time the season before, but my argument is that if the skill level is already MLB, I think it’s pointless to force him into more minor league seasoning just to satisfy statistical projections which can only be determined several weeks after a player has reached a given skill level.
Oh, and Castro 2010: .217 projection
Which is crazy good for a 20-year-old, although obviously, he blew by it…
And he ranked as the #45 overall prospect...
So, pretty comparable to where Arenado is now. But obviously, Castro’s development is the exception, not the rule.
Both have exceptional traits in their development at this stage.
In the contact department, particularly. I guess that I would suggest that Arenado has a higher than usual chance of being another exception. I want to be careful, though, because in making this argument I’m probably coming across as suggesting that I think it’s likely that Arenado’s another Castro. I definitely wouldn’t say that with anybody, but just that I think Arenado has a better chance for it than the other prospects in that tier without the contact skills would.
This is why I prefer looking at summary stats to doing component analysis
On the surface, Arenado’s low K rate looks great, yes. But there’s another way to look at that: despite making contact so often, he still didn’t have really great overall numbers. Which implies that when he makes contact, he doesn’t actually do that much damage. And sure enough, here are the numbers:
BACON (H/(AB-K): Cal League average .358, Arenado .332
SLGCON (TB/(AB-K)): Cal League average .556, Arenado .543
So our stud prospect actually hit the ball less hard than the average player in his league. I’m not trying to be sarcastic: he is an excellent prospect, I’ve never contended otherwise. But let’s just look at the following two claims, both of which contain indisputable facts followed by questionable interpretations of those facts:
RG: Arenado has exceptional contact skills, which give him a better chance to develop really fast.
HF: Arenado doesn’t produce particularly good results when he makes contact, so it’s not clear that he has much more room for growth.
I don’t think my statement is any more compelling than yours, but I don’t think it’s any less compelling either. I think both statements represent a dangerous kind of pseudo-analysis that misses the forest for the trees… namely, both statements place too much emphasis on one component of performance while ignoring/underemphasizing others. Better to just look at the overall results (as measured by something like ABR, with BABIP regression thrown in) and work from there.
As long as it's pseudo-analysis I agree,
and I’m not going to deny that I engage in that often enough, or even that I’m doing it here as I have no numbers to back my claims up, but I think you’ve also started getting to where I’m coming from with this. It seems to me that there should be a fairly high likelihood that one of those two statements is actually more compelling than the other and a fairly small likelihood that they’re of equal value. It’s just we haven’t taken the time to look closely enough at them, and so you’re absolving yourself from actually making a judgment call on grounds of ignorance to this. That’s fine, and the correct course mathematically, but it also could be dangerous to assume that it’s giving you some sort of analytical high ground.
I mean, if both statements are equally true, as an example, if Arenado’s contact skill makes him a better bet to mature quickly and have above average MLB value in 2012 than say Tommy Joseph, who I’m assuming is going to be a higher prospect according to ProspectBot and who will be seen as having a higher ceiling. The two players could still wind up to be near equal in overall MLB value as Arenado would start giving a team production earlier in his career. This would make my statement the more valuable as it would identify an opportunity to “beat” the ProspectBot, whereas your statement merely affirms the ProspectBot. As your statement proves more true and mine less, it obviously flips the value equation. I don’t know if I’m making sense, but I guess that I’m suggesting that it could be understanding how certain trees grow can help us better see or understand the entire forest.
Btw, is that number for Arenado’s “damage” park adjusted, or just straight to league average? As Modesto does have a historically lower SLG rate than the CAL, it seems that Arenado might have hit the ball just as hard as the average CAL leaguer, which given his age would obviously be a pretty good thing. There’s a pretty significant difference in value between Arenado’s 20 HR and Matt Davidson’s, 20 HR for instance.
Nope, not park-adjusted
So yeah, Arenado would come out around league-average in that metric, with the proper adjustments. But that doesn’t really change the overall point… hitting the ball just as hard as the average Cal Leaguer still isn’t much of a feather in Arenado’s cap. The only aspects of his record that stand out in any way are 1) contact rate and 2) age relative to league. Which in itself is interesting… just by being young and not striking out, you can be a top-50 prospect. Arenado’s a fun case, a relatively unique prospect profile (considering that he’s a 3B, anyway… most high-contact prospects are middle infielders).
Anyway, this
we haven’t taken the time to look closely enough at them, and so you’re absolving yourself from actually making a judgment call on grounds of ignorance to thisis exactly right, and an excellent summary of the issue. But I really doubt that we’d find anything significant if we looked closely at them. Other projection systems have tried to incorporate the kind of component analysis we’re talking about here… it doesn’t help. PECOTA (even in the Nate Silver days, when the system wasn’t a complete joke) was never more accurate than NEIFI for minor leaguers, even though it was explicitly designed to pick up on all sorts of little things like this and NEIFI was explicitly designed not to bother with them. If there’s any effect at all, it’s bound to be really marginal.
Silver's PECOTA would be the closest we've seen to that...
I think even he was trying to do too much with too little information and it ended up creating enough noise to bring the system to the same level of accuracy as your NEIFI.
I think what I want to identify is why some prospects (Castro, Pablo Sandoval) have no or little adjustment to different levels, where their minor league statistics are a better predictor of their MLB lines than their MLE’s, whereas many prospects at about their same projection level fail to adjust to the MLB at all. I think that by looking at the relatively unique types like Arenado that you’re more likely to identify the traits that make a Castro or Sandoval vs their peers. Dustin Pedroia too, despite his less than stellar cup of coffee in 2006. I know I’m going post hoc and anecdotal with my analysis here, but it seems that 1) contact rate and 2) age relative to league without having significantly below average power is a common thread.
I really don’t know, though, and would tend to trust ProspectBot more than my gut, but that common thread leaves me much more open to the idea that Arenado will be another exception along those lines and produce at the MLB level quickly than I am with somebody like Joseph.
Ironically, I think you have higher hopes for statistical analysis than I do.
I’m probably the last person you’d expect to say this, but I’m pretty confident that the answer to why some players develop better than others doesn’t lie in the numbers. It seems much more likely to me that the explanation lies in some combination of baseball intelligence, work ethic, and raw physical ceiling (and of course changes in those variables over time) than that one or two particular component statistical indicators portend success or failure. If you start grouping players looking for trends, no matter what statistical indicators you use to form those groups, the variation on the individual level is going to dwarf the variation on the group level to the point that the group-level analysis has virtually no value. Who knows, you might find that young contact hitters, as a group, beat their projections by 2 points of ABR or something. That wouldn’t shock me. But I’d be astonished if the difference was as much as 5 points. And 10 points just isn’t possible.
You’re absolutely right about PECOTA and trying to do too much with too little information. But that’s precisely my point – if you really go down the path that you’re sort of angling towards here, something like PECOTA is what you’ll end up with. And you won’t be able to tell which of the statistical relationships you’ve “discovered” are actually real, and which are just random. So I prefer to keep things simple and avoid making egregious mistakes.
I agree, I actually don't know if projections will ever get to that level
This kind of goes back to that conversation the other day about that league average computer GM. I would think a human scout who had a high quality projection system and could identify things like baseball intelligence, work ethic and raw ceiling should beat it, because he or she would be able to identify the flakes on the projection list.
Maybe I am higher on them then you are, because I do think there are a couple more objective measures that projection systems should be able to incorporate eventually, such as bat speed and plane and pitch speed and movement, given our increasing technology on those fronts, but like you say, there’s just no way to objectively measure work ethic, for instance, and I don’t see how such a measure would even be possible.
That said, on my end as a fan, I can and do make assumptions on information I’m given on some of these things that have to be subjectively guessed at to try and be that sort of “informed scout.” I realize that this often falls more into that pseudo-analysis category and I’m aware of many of my biases. I’m okay with that, I never claim to be a statistical guru, and it usually drives me crazy when certain writers who also fall into my camp pretend otherwise (BP and FanGraphs have hired quite a few.)
I guess where we do differ then is that because I’m so okay with my pseudo-analytical self, I’m also okay making my egregious mistakes. Live and learn.
Fair enough
And yep, I’d love to be able to add pitch speed and bat speed into NEIFI, that would be fantastic.
Anyway, good discussion…
Largely agree with your last paragraph
But there’s a simple probabilistic argument to be made here: what are the chances that Arenado would perform so poorly this year if he was really that close to being MLB-ready (by “poorly” there I of course mean by MLB standards, not by prospect standards… simply put, there are a slew of guys who had better MLEs than Arenado this year but who nobody would consider for a starting job in 2012)? . Like you said, the chances are greater than zero, but they sure aren’t very high. So if I’m going to let my scouts override those odds, they’d better be absolutely sure that Arenado really is that good. And I don’t think you’ll find many scouts who would say that Arenado has a 50% or better chance of being a league-average hitter next year.
Re: Colvin, the biggest problem is that he’s already too old to expect further improvement. NEIFI doesn’t work in probabilities, but it goes without saying that the odds of a non-young guy who currently projects at .239 actually performing at .273 (his 2010 level) are pretty bad.
For Colvin, that's still better than .200, which is what the other guy was saying his ceiling was.
I was trying to say that his 2010 (and Stewart’s for that matter, but he’s less relevant to the Rockies now) was evidence that it’s higher than .200/15 HR’s. His 2010 was lucky sure, and I’m definitely accepting the large possibility he never hits that well again, but it certainly had to have helped raise his ceiling about .200/15 HR’s.
For Arenado, given the upside (which is why he’s a better choice than that slew of guys with higher MLE’s,) I’d actually accept a projection of a certain degree below MLB average from him in 2012 if I knew that the Rockies had no better option at 3B and if it wasn’t likely to impact his development in any way. Before the team got LeMahieu, I think we were pretty close to that point. Right now, we still aren’t that far from it, but I do think that move yesterday could provide time for Arenado if another 2B is acquired or if Young shows himself competent defensively.
I'd prefer not to burn Arenado's service time
You’d really prefer to get ~1.5 WAR out of Arenado in 2012, a year when the team doesn’t appear to be trying to contend, than to wait and get an extra year out of him in his prime? I wouldn’t. And obviously, you can’t possibly know that it won’t affect his development in any way. Can the chance that Arenado significantly outperforms (say, by 1 WAR or more) a Kevin Kouzmanoff type realistically offset the service time and development considerations? I don’t think it can.
Sure, of course Colvin’s ceiling is higher than .200, any halfway competent AAA player has a ceiling higher than that.
That was kind of my point on Colvin, but nobody else was saying it.
The poster gave a ridiculously low, cynical standard, so I’m sorry for offending your statistical sensibilities by not making that point better the first time. I’m not even a fan of Colvin, and I have no idea why some Rockies fans seem to think he’ll be appealing to Atlanta for Prado, but his ceiling is above replacement level. It might not be by much, but it’s misleading to say that it’s that far below.
Back to Arenado…
I’m apparently not being clear here, but I’d be okay with a below average projection statistically in 2012 if scouts and coaches are giving a thumbs up that he’s ready. No, I have no delusions that it won’t affect his development, but I think I’m also more aware than anybody else it seems that at least as likely as the negative outcomes in that department, it could be more positive for his development to be going against MLB pitching than hitting against Texas Leaguers or in Colorado Springs would.
If trading off a 1.5 WAR Arenado in 2012 means we have a tuned to MLB pitching 3.5 to 4.0 WAR Arenado in 2013, I would rather have that than a 0.5 Arenado in 2012 and a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR Arenado the next year. This is especially true if there’s an okay chance that he can be a win or so higher than 1.5 this season.
To me starting his arb clock doesn’t matter as much as getting the most out of him during the peak Tulo/Cargo period. If it means we lose a year of Arenado on the tail of that, so be it. Maybe I’m kidding myself on this point wit Boras, but I actually think that Arenado would be more favorable to signing an extension with a team that didn’t dicker around with his service clock than one that did.
Dickering around?
I don’t think even a Bryce Harper-level prospect would consider it “dickering around with his service clock” if he were to (gasp) not be directly promoted from High-A to the majors. And projecting 3.5-4.0 WAR for a 22-year-old without a mind-blowing performance record is going way out on a limb.
I guess, as usual, my argument boils down to “you can never expect a particular player to be the exception to the rule”, and yours boils down to “but this guy really might be the exception”… if we were to make bets on these things, I’d win 8 or 9 times out of 10 (and I think you agree with that, otherwise you’d be arguing that projection systems are systematically wrong, rather than just wrong with regard to certain individual players), but I can’t prove that Arenado won’t be one of the minority that make me look bad.
Im a little sad
was looking forward to a Rex Brothers and Casey Weathers back end of the bullpen for a long time
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
I wasn't
26 year old pitchers who can’t throw strikes at AA usually don’t have productive careers in the major leagues.
It's Jim Tracy's Fault.
Oh really?
Obviously…but in hopes he would figure it out considering the talent he has.
I don’t think anybody in their right mind looks forward to watching someone on your team walk a bunch of people.
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Dec 9, 2011 6:46 AM MST up reply actions
BP's KG on Colvin/LeMahieu
Colvin is the third first-rounder in the deal, but that’s a bit of a technicality, as he was projected as more of a supplemental first-rounder in 2006 but went 13th overall as part of a larger gambit that involved giving fifth-rounder Jeff Samardzija a ridiculous amount of money to steer him away from an NFL career. That hasn’t exactly worked out, and neither has Colvin. Now limited to first base or a corner outfield slot as his athleticism slips with age, Colvin is (or was) yet another Cub with a horrible approach, which limits his ability to tap into his power. He’s not nearly as good as his 2010 campaign, when he slugged .500, nor as bad as the 2011 disaster, but his ceiling is that of a bench outfielder.
The only non-first-round pick in the deal was a bit of a surprise as a second-round selection in 2009, but Tim Wilken has always been an iconic evaluator of talent. The rare infielder who couldn’t stick at shortstop even in college, LeMahieu now splits time between second and third, and while he’s fundamentally sound, he’s not rangy at either position and has trouble turning the double play. His value lies in his hitting ability, but only in the purest sense, as his secondary skills are poor across the board, forcing him to hit for a high average to be of value. At best, he’s a utility player down the road, but like Stewart, he’ll earn a shot at the everyday third base job with his new team. In Colorado, that simply means keeping the spot warm until Nolan Arenado is ready.—Kevin Goldstein
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