Diamondbacks vs Rockies, Opening Day Simulated

We are still a couple of weeks away from the beginning of the baseball season. For baseball enthusiasts it is like a child counting down the days for the excitement and thrill of Christmas morning. Now that the opening day starters for the Rockies and their opening day opponent the Diamondbacks are pretty much set in stone, I can run a preliminary simulation of the first game. Of course the real game is played on the field, so think of these results as chum thrown into the fish tank of baseball fans, hungry for some real box scores. In case you are not familiar with my baseball simulator, it takes into account such things as defense, home field advantage, base running, splits, pitchers getting tired, height of the infield grass, placement of pebbles in the infield, a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections and a few other things I am forgetting.

Lineups

Player	Pos	Player	Pos
Stephen Drew	SS	Dexter Fowler	CF
Justin Upton	RF	Seth Smith	RF
Kelly Johnson	2B	Carlos Gonzalez	LF
Chris Young	CF	Troy Tulowitzki	SS
Miguel Montero	C	Todd Helton	1B
Xavier Nady	LF	Ian Stewart	3B
Melvin Mora	3B	Jose Lopez	2B
Juan Miranda	1B	Chris Iannetta	C
Ian Kennedy	P	Ubaldo Jimenez	P

... And now the results!

Away	Home			Favorite	Win/Prob
ARI	COL	Ian Kennedy	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	71.79%

It looks like the Rockies will be big favorites to win their opening day game against the Diamondbacks. This is not a big surprise as the Rockies are the stronger of the two teams, the starting pitching matchup is clearly not even and the game is being played in Denver. Besides Putz, the Diamondbacks bullpen gets hammered.

Here is the hitter(s) boxscores

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Stephen Drew	4.337	1.207	0.722	0.309	0.095	0.081	0.347	0.435	1.07	0.346
Justin Upton	4.196	1.176	0.771	0.266	0.017	0.123	0.433	0.392	1.401	0.343
Kelly Johnson	4.117	1.109	0.65	0.303	0.047	0.109	0.454	0.45	1.208	0.344
Chris Young	4.046	1.011	0.61	0.267	0.018	0.116	0.497	0.374	1.237	0.318
Miguel Montero	3.962	1.052	0.667	0.287	0.02	0.077	0.45	0.4	1.105	0.327
Xavier Nady	3.924	1.069	0.704	0.248	0.006	0.111	0.48	0.284	1.123	0.326
Melvin Mora	3.818	1.123	0.748	0.268	0.023	0.084	0.439	0.277	0.874	0.343
Juan Miranda	3.79	1.148	0.791	0.261	0.014	0.082	0.447	0.235	0.647	0.344
Ian Kennedy	3.755	0.427	0.346	0.068	0.003	0.01	0.144	0.143	2.15	0.134

Dexter Fowler	4.312	1.429	0.835	0.357	0.129	0.107	0.472	0.469	0.93	0.406
Seth Smith	4.195	1.373	0.772	0.345	0.044	0.212	0.679	0.501	0.884	0.419
Carlos Gonzalez	4.188	1.551	0.859	0.343	0.088	0.261	0.866	0.44	0.985	0.467
Troy Tulowitzki	4.114	1.437	0.806	0.361	0.057	0.213	0.855	0.357	0.767	0.433
Todd Helton	3.812	1.367	0.835	0.35	0.027	0.155	0.754	0.605	0.733	0.445
Ian Stewart	3.864	1.235	0.698	0.326	0.037	0.175	0.76	0.436	0.907	0.406
Jose Lopez	3.946	1.269	0.819	0.317	0.02	0.113	0.634	0.197	0.554	0.368
Chris Iannetta	3.656	1.099	0.685	0.279	0.016	0.119	0.563	0.382	0.775	0.37
Ubaldo Jimenez	3.784	0.593	0.474	0.098	0.006	0.015	0.216	0.162	1.694	0.178

And the pitchers boxscore

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Ubaldo Jimenez	6.201	7.387	2.245	6.195	0.435	102.776	2.816
Huston Street	0.411	0.507	0.076	0.399	0.036	6.429	2.416
Matt Belisle	0.39	0.442	0.062	0.404	0.039	6.07	2.718
Rafael Betancourt	0.728	1.073	0.135	0.674	0.102	11.565	2.634
Matt Lindstrom	0.38	0.361	0.128	0.441	0.045	6.3	3.857
Matt Reynolds	0.77	0.781	0.254	0.917	0.104	12.898	3.918
Matt Daley	0.253	0.261	0.088	0.287	0.032	4.219	3.834
Franklin Morales	0.004	0.004	0.002	0.005	0.001	0.068	4.607

Ian Kennedy	5.214	5.088	2.034	7.062	0.839	91.367	4.51
J.J. Putz	0.326	0.411	0.099	0.351	0.03	5.424	2.796
Juan Gutierrez	0.425	0.407	0.158	0.57	0.076	7.372	4.722
David Hernandez	0.724	0.716	0.354	0.976	0.138	13.056	5.172
Esmerling Vasquez	0.476	0.484	0.312	0.61	0.07	8.909	5.058
Aaron Heilman	0.813	0.742	0.368	1.132	0.145	14.522	5.049
Joe Paterson	0.449	0.368	0.217	0.629	0.069	8.032	4.999
Mike Hampton	0.017	0.013	0.007	0.024	0.002	0.303	4.634

Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).

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