The Dissenting Opinion: Why the Philadelphia Phillies Won't Win the N.L. East
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 23, 2011 2:24 PM MDT
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PrintThere's trouble in paradise; or at least in Philadelphia.
While on the surface the four time defending National League East Champion Phillies seem like a lock to win their division for a fifth straight season, there are problems brewing beneath the baseball waters which encompass their upcoming voyage. Sure the Phils are the favorites to win the World Series according to the uh, ahem, "establishments", boast arguably the greatest rotation of all time, and look so good on paper that their own fans are willing to test fate. However, that same starting rotation of Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels and "who the hell cares because the first four are so good' which has us asking "Is it the greatest of ALL TIME!?!?", is turning our attention away from other very real, and in some cases very big problems that are going to surface once the games get underway.
Let's explore five of them.
1) An Eroding Offense
Here's a few numbers for you. .812, .770, .781, and .745. Those are the OPS numbers the Phillies as a team have put up over the last four seasons; and it doesn't take a genius to figure out that they are trending in the wrong direction. Gone are the days when the Phillies could bombard opposing pitching staffs into oblivion night after night; gone are the days where Jimmy Rollins is considered a great leadoff man; and gone are the days when Ryan Howard will be leading baseball in RBI's. (If that was ever a good way to measure his production in the first place)
Here's the kicker though; it's about to get worse. Much worse!!!!!
1A) Werthless Production From the #5 Slot
Last season Jayson Werth put up an OPS+ of 145. For those of you unfamiliar with this metric, a 145 OPS+ is really, really good. So good in fact that only Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Matt Holliday, and Adrian Gonzalez put up better numbers than Werth in this category in the entire National League last season.
Now that the man who led the Phillies in walks, doubles, OBP, SLG%, OPS, and OPS + last season is off to Washington, a gigantic hole has been blown right in the middle of Philadelphia's lineup. The debate focused around whether or not Philadelphia should have signed Werth to a long term deal can rage deep into the night (I personally think they made the right decision here), but there are two things that remain pretty cut and dry here. 1) Jayson Werth was the Phillies best offensive player in 2010. 2) The Phillies are going to miss his bat in 2011.
1B) Ruiz's Regression
If you take a gander at Carlos Ruiz's career numbers, one thing should immediately jump out at you. The Phillies catcher played way over his head last season. Don't get me wrong, Ruiz deserves credit for a 2010 season that included a batting average 42 points above his career average, an OBP 47 points above his career average, and an OPS 98 points above his career average. Just don't expect it to happen again.
1C) Raul Ibanez's AARP Card
Ibanez will turn 39 this season; that's a dinosaur in baseball years. At any point now his skills could start declining rapidly; in fact, this may have already begun last season when his power numbers took a plunge from where they've been in recent years. Ibanez is a tough player to figure though because he had what many consider his best season ever at the age of 37, so it's possible I could be sending out a false alarm with this one. But if father time really has caught up with him, expect to see serious drop-offs in all facets of his game very soon.
In short, the Phillies lineup is a shadow of it's former self. The only two hitters who really scare me anymore are Chase Utley and Ryan Howard; and now with the status of Utley's knee uncertain, 2011 could be the worst offense Philadelphia has put on the field in a long, long time.
2) That Bullpen is Not as Good as You Think
Pop quiz!!! What do Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Jose Contreas, and J.C. Romero have in common besides all pitching in the Phillies bullpen last season? (Hint: The answer lies in the chart below)
| Player | 2010 ERA | Career ERA | Career FIP |
| Brad Lidge | 2.96 | 3.51 | 3.24 |
| Ryan Madson | 2.55 | 3.71 | 3.84 |
| Chad Durbin | 3.80 | 5.05 | 5.13 |
| Jose Contreas | 3.34 | 4.55 | 4.31 |
| J.C. Romero | 3.68 | 4.08 | 4.49 |
| Average | 3.27 | 4.18 | 4.20 |
Time's up. Did you see something alarming there? The closer, the three righties who pitched the most innings out of the pen last season, and lefty who pitched the most innings out of the pen all had lower ERA's in 2010 than their career ERA's or career FIP's. And as you can see, when you average them all together the difference if huge. Regardless of whether you prefer ERA or FIP, both say that these key pieces of the Phillies bullpen pitched almost a run better than we should've expected them to last season.
Just like with Carlos Ruiz, expect some regression in 2011.
(Note: Chad Durbin will not be back with the Phillies in 2011 as he signed a deal with the Indians this offseason. I still included him here though because he was a big piece last year who outperformed his career numbers.)
3) The Big Four Could Become the Big Three
There is one small drawback to having a surplus of great pitching like the Phillies. The more outstanding pitchers you have, the more likely it is that you have an outstanding pitcher who either gets hurt, or has a season in which they just flat out underperform. IF EITHER of these things happen to ANY of Philly's big four pitches, it could prove disastrous when you couple it with the eroding offense and regressing bullpen we've already gone over.
What's even scarier for Philly fans is that one doesn't have to look back very far to find examples where this happened to members of Philadelphia's big four themselves. 2009 saw both Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt toil in mediocrity; in 2007 Cliff Lee was so bad the Indians sent him to the minors, and Roy Halladay spent significant time on the DL in both the 2004, and 2005 seasons.
The real point I'm trying to get at here it that the Phillies believe they are going to get about 900 innings worth of dominance from their top four starters (1,000 if you count the postseason). However, I just can't help but think of how much can happen over a 162 game season; especially when you consider that three of these pitchers are at least 32 years old and that they all have some extra mileage on their arms from last October. It's just a lot to ask, even for this staff.
4) The Threat From Dixie Land
The Atlanta Braves are an incoming tide. They won 86 games in 2009, 91 last season, and are a huge threat to win over 90 games again this year. On offense they boast one of the best hitting catchers in the game in Brian McCann, a 21 year old phenom in Jason Heyward, an eagle eyed veteran who's posted an OBP of at least .381 in 12 of his last 13 seasons in Chipper Jones, and a new second baseman who is the only man in MLB history at his position to hit at least 30 long balls in four consecutive seasons in Dan Uggla.
Meanwhile, they have a solid rotation themselves that includes one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball in Tim Hudson, a young lion in Tommy Hanson who was good last season and could get even better, another young pitcher in Jair Jurrjens who should see a bounce back this year, and a guy in Derek Lowe who gives his team a decent chance to win almost every time he takes the mound.
In my mind, this team is flying under the radar and could easily win over 90 games again; and if they do, they could post a number that Philly will have a hard time matching.
5) One Run Magic Will Disappear
Last season the Phillies were a whopping 29-17 in one run games; that's off the charts good. Unfortunately for the Phillies it's also not sustainable, even for them. If you go back and look at the previous 130 one run games the Phillies were involved in during this run of division titles they've been on, you will find that from April 19th, 2007 through the end of the 2009 season, the Phillies posted a .500 record in one run games (65-65). Teams almost always tend to regress back towards .500 in one run games after having a season like the Phillies did last year; it's not a knock on them, it's just kind of what happens. If the Phillies posted a .500 record last season in one run games, (which I think is a reasonable expectation for this season) they would have won six fewer games and ended up tied with Atlanta for the division at 91 wins.
This is very important to consider when evaluating the Phillies because I don't see them as a 97 win team who added Cliff Lee. I instead see them as a team who overachieved last season and who despite adding Cliff Lee is going to lose ground for all the reasons listed above because together they will outweigh the impact of Cliff Lee. I don't think it's outrageous at all to think that in a year where expectations are higher than ever in Philly, they might just be watching baseball history unfold this October instead of making it themselves.
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).
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You make some good points
That I hadn’t considered. I was still in the (apparently archaic) mindset that the Phillies offense was a force to be reckoned with. I still voted for the Phils just because it seems like stuff has to go reasonably wrong for them and reasonably right for the Braves. I’m not counting it out, because crazier things have happened (look at the Rockies and the Giants in 2010). I’m not saying the Phillies will win 107 games and the World Series this year. My bet is that the Phils win 92-95 games and the Braves come in 1-3 games behind, and most likely win the WC.
I think the Braves are the new kids on the block in the NL East, and have the potential to be the next dynasty team from that division, but I also think experience matters. It showed last year, when the Braves and Phillies were neck and neck down the stretch. The Phills won 5 out of the 6 games they played against the Braves in Sept/Oct last year. I don’t think they were necessarily that much better, they’re just accustomed to playing well in September and going deep in October. I know it’s hard both to defend and debate the “intangibles” argument, but if there’s any modern team in the NL that has playoff know-how, it’s the Phillies.
"The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws." - Rick Wise
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Mar 23, 2011 1:51 AM MDT reply actions
Very true
I agree Philly has better intangibles than Atlanta for all the post season experience you mentioned and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they won this division again. That rotation might just be good enough to overcome all the short comings this team has. I just wanted to point out all these flaws because it seemed like they were being ignored all around baseball. It’s almost as if everyone is so blinded by the big four the aren’t bothering to look at the other 21 players and saying ………….“wait a second, the Phillies are actually quite vulnerable this year.”
In my mind I see these teams as being really close. Maybe Philly being a 88-92 win team while Atlanta is a 90-95 win team but that’s just a guess. Either way I think Atlanta is great upset pick and I like to hang out on the limb a little.
10 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 23, 2011 9:11 AM MDT up reply actions
This was pretty well argued, but a nit to pick
here is one small drawback to having a surplus of great pitching like the Phillies. The more outstanding pitchers you have, the more likely it is that you have an outstanding pitcher who either gets hurt,
That’s a really silly rationalization. It’s kind of like saying I have 20 $1 bills and you have 40. You have more money, but the “drawback” is that if some wind picks up, you might lose 8 and I might lose 3. You still have $32 to my $17. There is never any drawback to having four dominant starters.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 23, 2011 8:31 AM MDT reply actions
That's fair
I probably should have worded that differently. What I was really trying to get at is that I think anyone who is penciling in four great starters when they are doing their expectaions for Philly in there head needs to be cautious.
Here’s an example. If a yankee fan looks at their rotation and says I expect to have a real Ace because we have a great pitcher in CC Sabathia, I think that’s perfectly reasonable because there’s probably only about a 15% chance (I’m making this number up but it seems reasonable) that he’s either going to get hurt for an extended period of time or flat out underperform this year. However, if someone looks at Philly’s rotation and says I expect them to have four great pitchers all year I have my doubts because I’d say that there is at least a 50% chance that one of four pitchers either gets hurt or flat out underperforms. So in my mind, they are likely to only have three dominant pitchers for much of the year.
You’re right though, drawback is the wrong word to use there.
10 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 23, 2011 9:22 AM MDT up reply actions
But here's what you're forgetting
Even if you have 4 aces and one underperforms, what does an underperforming Ace look like? Probably better than your #4.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 11:04 AM MDT up reply actions
I don't know about that
Let’s say 2009 happens again. That season Roy Oswalt had an ERA+ of 100 and Hammels had an ERA + of 97. I see the Phillies offense now as below average so I’d guess that they would do well to get to .500 in games started by an under performing ace.
Let’s say Oswalt underperforms while Hammel, Halladay and Lee light it up. Then the Phillies go something like 15-17 in Oswalt’s 32 starts (they are going to lose a lot of games where the starter goes 6 innings and gives up three runs with that offense) and 14-18 in the 32 starts Blanton or whatever other below average pitcher they slot in at #5. That would mean the Phillies have to 70-28 in their other 98 games started by Halladay, Hammels and Lee (a .714 winning percentage) just to get to 93 wins; a number I think Atlanta could end up at. With a bullpen that is likely to regress and an offense that just doesn’t look very fearsome anymore, I think that climb would be too steep.
They might need all four starters to be at their best to pull this off.
If the underperforming ace has an ERA+ of 110-115 or something like that though, then yes you’re right, my #3 point won’t really be a huge deal.
9 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 23, 2011 12:12 PM MDT up reply actions
You're assuming everything is going to go absolutely right for Atlanta as well
Freddie Freeman is a rookie – albeit an exciting one – and you can’t just assume that he’s going to go all Heyward on the league. Tim Hudson probably won’t post a sub-3 ERA again, he’s not getting any younger or healthier. What if Lowe continues his decline? What if Hanson gets hurt? What does 200IP from Kenshin Kawakami look like?
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 1:32 PM MDT up reply actions
I'll address a couple of these...
If Hanson gets hurt, Lowe declines, and Hudson regresses, I’m still not too worried. Much less worried than I’d be if I were a Phils fan and Lee got hurt, Hamels declines, and Oswalt regresses.
Kawakami’s about 8th on the rotational depth chart right now. Beachy or Minor will take the fifth spot, with the other becoming the guy that fills in when someone goes down. After that, you have Rodrigo Lopez, who isn’t great but will eat innings…not ideal, but still serviceable. Then you have Julio Teheran, who could see action this year in the event of injury (or as a September call-up). The rotational depth of the Braves far exceeds that of the Phillies, who have Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley to look forward to if someone goes down.
The Phillies are also now the team more prone to have a pitcher put up Tommy Hanson-type numbers with similar results…a losing record. Regardless of their pitchers’ performances, this isn’t going to be the same Phillies team that can put double-digits on the scoreboard with regularity, especially if Utley is gone for months rather than weeks.
As far as what 200 Kenshin Kawakami innings looks like, it probably looks quite a bit like 200 innings from Aaron Cook at this point. But the likelihood of Kawakami pitching on the big league club is virtually nil.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
thanks for the insight
What I still don’t understand is why Polanco is staying at 3B given the untimely death of Chase Utley
For the record, I’m not trying to discredit the Braves. Just trying to level the discussion.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 2:06 PM MDT up reply actions
Chase Utley died, but his beautiful hair shall live forever.
Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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/removes cap
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 2:18 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't get that, either...
A good chunk of Placido’s value for so long was his versatility, playing excellent defense at any position he’s needed. You’d think that they could find someone to put in at third that could provide serviceable defense and a better bat than any of their 2B replacements, but maybe they are really thin at that position.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Agreed
Do not know what the world is coming to but I agree with Andrew here. The Braves are on the rise but the assumption is that Heyward won’t have a sophomore jinx and Freeman will be the next big thing. Also banking on Chipper rebounding (much like we are with Helton but that is another discussion), Hudson staying healthy, and the 2 kid closers getting it done. A lot has to go right for them. The Phils will struggle to score runs at times but they do have shutdown starting pitching. JRoll probably rebounds somewhat. I would love to see the Phils miss the playoffs because they are constructed to win post season series but I do not think it will happen.
Why is everyone worried about Hudson's health??
He had TJ surgery, he’s recovered. It’s not like this is an injury that has a high amount of recurrence. He’s fine, and will be. He’ll probably regress, but that’s more a function of luck than anything else. I’m glad he had TJ rather than another type of injury that is much likelier to recur.
Freeman’s contribution is also a bit overblown. He’s going to be the number 8 hitter. Even with a great season, he’ll move up to sixth and won’t be a major cog in an order that features plenty of talent at the plate. He’ll play a much better first than either Glaus or DLee did last season, and that’s likely where his contributions will matter most.
I don’t think Heyward is as susceptible to a sophomore slump as most young stars, but he can certainly be bitten by the injury bug…his nagging ailments are a legitimate concern. But if he stays healthy, he puts last year’s numbers to shame. It would be unspeakable to suggest if he weren’t Jason Heyward, but last season was actually a bit of a disappointment from his perspective. His thumb injury really marred much of his season.
Chipper is obviously a concern. Rather than looking at his scorching but meaningless Spring Training numbers, I’ll say that he’s fielding excellently right now, which is the best possible indication that he’ll be recovered and ready for the season. He’s bare-handing those dribblers to third and throwing runners out, just like always.
Also overblown is the age of the closing duo. Young closers are not at all uncommon in this day and age. They’re all over the place. Veterans like Rivera, etc., are somewhat a rarity now. Most closers begin closing at a young age. They’re bound to have their moments, but again, they should be fine.
I think the “Everything must go right for the Braves and bad things have to happen for the Phillies” schtick is nonsense. If everything goes okay for both teams, it will be a really close race. Utley’s injury alone is enough to open the Braves’ door of opportunity without any extra luck involved.
I think where everyone is getting lost in the woods is the point where they decide to compare the teams head-to-head. They only play 18 games against each other, so the head-to-head rotation match-up isn’t going to make a huge difference.
The Braves starters are better than the majority of the opposing starting pitchers they’ll face. They have at least an equally capable lineup at this point, a better bullpen, better bench. Just better depth overall. So, when they aren’t playing each other, I like to think the Braves have a better team. Obviously, the regular season will determine that, but I’m pretty excited about this season and even more excited about the next few years.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Tim Hudson's BABIP was unsustainably low
He pitched to the tune of a 4-ish FIP last year too.
Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.
That indicates regression, as I stated. It’s not a health concern. Tim Hudson is Tim Hudson – he’ll have a 55-60% GB%, he won’t strike out many, he’ll have a BABIP slightly below .300. His ERA will likely be better than his FIP as a result. You can just about bet money on it.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Question..
Aren’t GB pitchers supposed to have higher than average BABIP?
by CentralCaliRox on Mar 23, 2011 3:55 PM MDT up reply actions
yeah, remember that SIERA article and the excel stuff and what have you?
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 3:57 PM MDT up reply actions
Most...
Tim Hudson is an anomaly in himself.
10 of 12 seasons with a lower than .300 BABIP, one was his rookie year and the other was right after coming off TJ surgery…neither represents a full sample size.
He’s just got a knack for pitching to contact.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
and having that contact fall into gloves.
What a knack that is.
by CentralCaliRox on Mar 23, 2011 4:01 PM MDT up reply actions
Nope.
Falling into gloves would suggest the ball is in the air when it reaches the fielder.
These balls are skipping off the surface of the diamond (55-60% of the time), and are generally weakly hit.
Trust me, the Braves haven’t had the defense to support the notion that it’s an excellent defense that’s the cause of the low BABIP.
See Conrad, Brooks – 2010 NLDS for more information.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
And if I seem bullish...
It’s because I am. 100%.
Even as late as last year’s playoffs, I had a “Just wait until 2012” mentality. But a lot of good things have come together, and this season could be special…or it could end with an injury fest like last season.
Obviously, everything has to translate into regular season success, but there shouldn’t be a prohibitive “odds on favorite” this season. The gap between the “invincible Phillies” and the rest of the NL contenders closed incredibly quickly, I think, and it’s going to be a long, dragged-out affair just to see who wins the NL East.
At this point, I can’t even pick a team to be the NL #1 seed. Could be the Rockies, could be the Giants (don’t hate me), Phillies, or Braves. I don’t see the Central being much better, other than for Milwaukee, but this is easily the most interesting, wide-open race to the playoffs that I can remember.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Of course I didn't mean the ball was in the air.
Just that the ball was “finding” the glove. I know Hudson is a groundball pitcher. I wasn’t trying to say Hudson is just lucky, I know how good he is.
by CentralCaliRox on Mar 23, 2011 4:36 PM MDT up reply actions
I was probably more defensive there than I should have been as well.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
we find the dumbest things to argue about
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 4:53 PM MDT up reply actions
Wrong.
Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Serious Avs fan. Yes, I have health insurance.
SB Nation Denver
Yeah but you're biased
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 9:17 AM MDT up reply actions
Head to head can make a huge difference. See 2009 Rockies vs. Dodgers for proof.
I'm just like everyone else, only way better.
Incredibly unlikely...
I honestly don’t know how the Rockies managed to do that poorly against the Dodgers.
It’s an anomaly, though, not the rule. Even with 18 games, you’ll likely only see a swing of 3-4 games.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
same thing the twins have with the yankees
they wrote about it on fangraphs a while back, how over years and years, despite changing rosters and managers, the yankees just kill the twins. it’s all a head thing
you still have to play the game, no matter how shiny liriano's FIP is
tulo and bambino - september kings
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
And again, you didn't really address the question
Even if Oswalt or Hamels posts a 100 ERA+, check out Jurrjens: 84 ERA+, Ricky Nolasco 93 ERA+, Luis Atilano 79 ERA+, Jon Niese 93 ERA+.
Again, a slumping Ace is better than a standard issue #4
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 1:53 PM MDT up reply actions
for the record, I shuddered having to post ERA+
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 1:57 PM MDT up reply actions
I shuddered...
when you used Jurrjens 2010 ERA+ as a standard issue #4 pitcher…mostly because he was injured for almost half of 2010.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I know
I’m at work so it was “BBR – who’s #4? Jurrjens! Go with it!”
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 2:06 PM MDT up reply actions
Flying by the seat of your pants...
Well-played, sir.
I really hope Jurrjens can return to 08-9 form rather than what Braves fans experienced last season, but there’s no guarantee.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I love jurrjens just for the sake of "lol renteria"
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 3:53 PM MDT up reply actions
I love Renteria...
He’s responsible for 8 WAR in two seasons and Jair Jurrjens.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I love Renteria...
…for his dreamy eyes and Cliff Lee.
Nomadic baseball fan, with no agenda other than observation/conversation/mass confusion/mass consumption.
by victor frankenstein on Mar 23, 2011 4:30 PM MDT up reply actions
Those
are not dreamy eyes.
I believe in the future, the reality of the present, the sweet memories of the past, living is more than breathing, spring will came if we wait, patiently, believing, hoping. But the winter is long and we must endure its cold. I believe in the future, the reality of what is to come, the sweet memories that are yet to occur, probably, eventually, someday.
And I believe in hope and anticipation: the idea that we’ll meet again, and counting down the days until we do.
by prettyinpurple on Mar 24, 2011 8:45 AM MDT up reply actions
they make me swoon...
The Martha Stewart of processed foods.
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They creep me out.
I believe in the future, the reality of the present, the sweet memories of the past, living is more than breathing, spring will came if we wait, patiently, believing, hoping. But the winter is long and we must endure its cold. I believe in the future, the reality of what is to come, the sweet memories that are yet to occur, probably, eventually, someday.
And I believe in hope and anticipation: the idea that we’ll meet again, and counting down the days until we do.
by prettyinpurple on Mar 25, 2011 11:00 AM MDT up reply actions
statcorner has a tRA+
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 3:53 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't know if all # 4's are really that weak but even so, I look at it as a package deal
I think an average #4 starter with Atlanta’s lineup gives them a better chance to win than the 2009 version of Roy Oswalt with the eroding lineup Philly has this season. Oswalt still may be an above average #4 (the 2009 version that is, we obviously know he’s WAAAAAYY better than your normal #4 starter) but I’m not convinced the Phils will be an abaove average team if they have a guy like that taking the mound getting modest run support.
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 7:10 AM MDT up reply actions
2010 Roy Oswalt was pretty freaking good.
Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Serious Avs fan. Yes, I have health insurance.
SB Nation Denver
There isn't a team in baseball that wouldn't kill for a rotation like the Phillies aces
Pick three out of four?
Lee
Halladay
Hamels
Oswalt
Yeah, you can win with any three of them.
Good article, but you stretch yourself to thin on this point. It discredits the rest of your fine work.
Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Serious Avs fan. Yes, I have health insurance.
SB Nation Denver
Dave Cameron brought something up in the WSJ this morning
About deciding what players are “irreplaceable” by comparing the projected WAR of the player and their backup. The Phillies #6 starter, Kyle Kendrick, projects at like 1.5 WAR. If any of the 4-6 WAR “aces” goes down for the season, then the replacement could cost them as many as 5 wins.
Also, given that Chase Utley is going to miss significant time, his replacement (Luis Castillo) could be a 3+ win dropoff.
However, this problem isn’t unique to the Phillies. Every team that has multiple superstars without quality replacement players is at risk for major problems.
Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.
"So, who drew the short straw?"
Nomadic baseball fan, with no agenda other than observation/conversation/mass confusion/mass consumption.
by victor frankenstein on Mar 26, 2011 10:37 AM MDT up reply actions
Roy Oswalt obviously
Since Lee has blocked him
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 26, 2011 11:00 AM MDT up reply actions
I thought Cliff had taken his stellar Series showing seriously...
…bulked up and added an extra arm.
Nomadic baseball fan, with no agenda other than observation/conversation/mass confusion/mass consumption.
by victor frankenstein on Mar 26, 2011 12:08 PM MDT up reply actions
Oh no doubt
I would kill to have any of these pitchers on my team. What I question is can the top three win games at a .700 clip with modest run support if one of them stumbles. I think that’s the pace they would have to keep up with if anything goes wrong here because the pitching depth really falls off the top four.
With that said though, I realize that these guys are so good they just might be able to pull it off. It’ll be fun to see how this plays out.
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 7:17 AM MDT up reply actions
You needed to articulate the point of depth more in the article.
Citing Cliff Lee’s 2007 demotion is like citing Jorge De La Rosa’s struggles in the KC bullpen – they’re different pitchers anymore.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 24, 2011 9:04 AM MDT up reply actions
Its like doing multiple comparison tests!
You have to control for the error rate
I <3 Johnson
by SurfaceThought on Mar 23, 2011 3:17 PM MDT up reply actions
I can see what you meant
That most any team will have at least one significant injury forcing a #6 into longterm duty, and the odds are greater that should that injury happen, its likely to be one of the big four, leading to a large drop off. It’s just that the rotation remains strong, they are projected to handily win the east so that one injury might not make up the gap, and that’s assuming worst case scenario (the injured ace is pitching at an elite level and not one of your poor year candidates, and that the replacement is worthless)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 23, 2011 6:02 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Good Article RIRF
Can I just make a formatting suggestion? Instead of making that table one solid block of red like that – try alternating the rows with a color (nothing too bright the red is rather hard on the eyes to read) Something I have for my company is like this:
The Martha Stewart of processed foods.
Super Overlady Of the Ubaldo Lovers Club.
Proud Member of the PR gynocracy.
Video tips on posting links and images to Purple Row - Click Here -
yeah, there's a "zebra" class in the table formatter, use that.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 11:04 AM MDT up reply actions
Would I have to use the HTML view to insert that in?
I see the “zebra” description under “style tips” but how would I add that in?
9 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 23, 2011 12:14 PM MDT up reply actions
highlight your table and then click the table thing and pick "zebra"
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 1:32 PM MDT up reply actions
I believe
you’d need to code the HTML in yourself in our editor. There is no table function in the FanPost editor.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
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oooh, didn't realize that. Pisser.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 1:47 PM MDT up reply actions
Went ahead and
cleared it up.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
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Thanks Russ
Looks much better
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 7:20 AM MDT up reply actions
Oh man
I’m awful at coding HTML
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 7:20 AM MDT up reply actions
Thanks for the heads up
I’ll try to make it easier on the eyes in the future.
9 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 23, 2011 12:12 PM MDT up reply actions
Cliff Lee.
He ain’t all that.
Nomadic baseball fan, with no agenda other than observation/conversation/mass confusion/mass consumption.
by victor frankenstein on Mar 23, 2011 2:58 PM MDT reply actions
He's spitting at your comment
2011 Colorado Zombies-DeadWalking to the NL West crown
Tulo, CarGo, Ubaldo ,The Toddfather - oh my
Original Thugget Loyalists United #4, UNugg #4, QPU Emeritus, PR Gynocracy VP
haha
I believe in the future, the reality of the present, the sweet memories of the past, living is more than breathing, spring will came if we wait, patiently, believing, hoping. But the winter is long and we must endure its cold. I believe in the future, the reality of what is to come, the sweet memories that are yet to occur, probably, eventually, someday.
And I believe in hope and anticipation: the idea that we’ll meet again, and counting down the days until we do.
by prettyinpurple on Mar 24, 2011 8:46 AM MDT up reply actions
Nah nah...
…he’s spitting at my name.
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by victor frankenstein on Mar 25, 2011 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions
Mr Camels runs the SBN Blog "The Good Phight"
Just so everyone knows.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 3:57 PM MDT up reply actions
Hello, Whole!
It was a Good Phight indeed.
Nomadic baseball fan, with no agenda other than observation/conversation/mass confusion/mass consumption.
by victor frankenstein on Mar 23, 2011 4:35 PM MDT up reply actions
we've been yelling that for 3 years now
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 3:54 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm sure RIRF knew it, but we do have a Jason Hammel as an excuse.
What do you think about this FanPost?
by CentralCaliRox on Mar 23, 2011 3:54 PM MDT up reply actions
more to come
Lots of cherry-picking, assumptions, obfuscations, burden-shifting, etc.
Just off the top of my head:
1. The “Titanic” thing was a gag. I can’t believe you didn’t get it.
2. Werth has left, but why no look at the potential replacements? It doesn’t go from Werth to Zero. Also, batting order is largely irrelevant.
3. The methodology in stating “Ruiz will decline because he was never this good before” is sloppy at best. There are other reasons to think he’ll regress in 2011; these aren’t those reasons.
4. “One of the Big Four starters could get hurt.” You can say that about every pitcher in Major League Baseball. Regardless, Hamels, Oswalt, Halladay, and Lee are remarkably durable, past the young pitcher “injury nexus,” and probably better bets to stay healthy than most pitchers.
5. You cite the relievers’ 2010 ERA and their Career ERAs and Career FIPs. Why not their 2010 FIPs, if we’re being totally fair? Madson has been a dominant reliever since mid-2008 (2010 FIP – 2.61). It’s unfair to compare Contreras’ numbers while starting to this (admittedly small) sample of performance out of the bullpen. In any event, Contreras’s 2010 FIP = 3.27. At any rate, reliever numbers are inherently volatile.
6. Raul Ibanez is a late-bloomer and has thusfar defied traditional projection systems. He’s an outlier, but OP seems to acknowledge this, so no biggie.
7. Overall decline in team offense as measured by team raw OPS. How does this compare to the rest of the league, where offense has been decreasing? Of course the offense isn’t as good as it was in its awesome 2007-8 heyday, but it’s still well better than league average.
8. The Braves are legit, there’s no argument there, but the crux of your piece is predicated on the assumption that everything goes wrong for Philadelphia, and right for Atlanta. Frankly, it wouldn’t even require that.
9. “Only two hitters scare me” = irrelevant
10. Record in one run games – Why look at this in isolation without looking at their pythagorean record (which they outplayed by only two games)?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Of course the offense isn’t as good as it was in its awesome 2007-8 heyday, but it’s still well better than league average.
Phillies wRC+ was like 98 in 2010.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 5:01 PM MDT up reply actions
you know, just sayin
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 5:04 PM MDT up reply actions
"just sayin"
Like nails on a chalkboard
wRC+ of 99, good for fourth in the NL, despite missing huge chunks of time from Utley, Rollins, Howard, Polanco, and shorter DL stints from Ruiz and Victorino.
just sayin back
http://www.thegoodphight.com
oh snape
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 11:15 PM MDT up reply actions
It's unfortunate then that they will still miss huge chunks of time from Utley
and a full season of Werth
Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.
Howard and Polanco still appeared 143 and 132 games though
I wouldn’t call Howard’s missed time a huge chunk. Polanco is getting close but he’s not a star for you so absorbing 30 missed games isn’t a HUGE problem there.
Utley and Rollins certainly fall into that category but as hjrrockies pointed out, you may miss serious time from Utley again this year so the only one that really applies here is Rollins.
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 8:09 AM MDT up reply actions
Lots to cover here so lets try to break this into chunks
First is really the offense as a whole. Usually when someone like Ruiz has been around for several years and they have a season well above their career numbers like he did last year, they regress the following year. I don’t see why that expectation is unreasonable. Ruiz was a huge part of your offense last year and he stepped up big when others went down, I just have a hard time seeing him repeat that performance because he’s done nothing in his career before last season to indicate that the 2010 Ruiz could be the real Ruiz.
I agree that it won’t go from Werth to zero but there’s no way around the fact that you are taking your best offensive player from last season and replacing him with an unproven talent. Maybe you will get decent production this season from RF but I think it’s safe to say that there’s going to be a big dropoff here. Maybe not a wRC+ drop from 146 to 90 or some thing like that but I think it would be foolish to expect anything less than a 25 point drop in wRC+ from that position.
Only two hitters scare me" = irrelevant
Let me ask you this then. How many everyday hitters do you expect to have a wRC+ of 110 or higher this year? I think Utley and Howard are the only two I would EXPECT to do that, and Utley’s status is uncertain.
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 7:44 AM MDT up reply actions
How many everyday hitters do you expect to have a wRC+ of 110 or higher this year?
Cargo and Tulo. That’s it….
Oh…you were talking about the Phillies’ poor offense, huh….
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Mar 26, 2011 8:36 AM MDT up reply actions
nuh uh EVERYONE'S gonna break out!
EVVVERYONE!
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 26, 2011 9:23 PM MDT up reply actions
Actually, I think this illustrates Philly's problem quite well
Last season the Rockies offense was dreadful as long as someone who didn’t have Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez or Troy Trever Tulowitzki on their birth certificate was at the plate. If the Phillies put up a lineup similar to that it could be a huge problem for them because last season the Rockies pitching (starters and relievers combined) ranked second in ERA+ and fourth in both FIP and xFIP and they still only won 83 games. (It would probably be fair to say that the Rockies were really more of an 86-87 win team last season but that’s still a far cry from the win total I’ve seen many people project for Philly this season).
The one big difference I see in the Philly and Rockie lineups this season is that the Rockies seem to have waaaayyyy more wild cards. With the Phillies, I’m pretty confident that Ruiz is going to regress, that Rollins and Victorino will be an average offensive players (Rollins’s has only had a wRC+ of 110 or higher twice in his ten year career and he’s had a wRC+ of 88 and 92 the last two seasons while Victorino has never had a wRC+ above 113), and that at their ages, Ibanez and Polanco are not going to light the world on fire. Since Utley, Howard, Rollins, Victorino, Polanco, Ibanez, and Ruiz are all at least 30, we can get a decent idea of what to expect from them; and beyond Utley (assuming he gets healthy) and Howard, I don’t see too many spectacular things going on here. (Not to mention that having a lineup this old is always a little dangerous in itself anyway)
Like the Phillies, the Rockies only have two guys you can really count on to be great, unlike the Phillies however, I look at the Rockies as a team who has several wild card players who could break out and be awesome. Between Stewart, Smith, Iannetta and Helton I feel the Rockies have a real good shot to get a third player with not just a wRC+ of 110 or higher, but a wRC+ of 120 or higher. Iannetta and Smith have already both done it, (Iannetta with a 129 wRC+ in 2008 and Smith with a 126 wRC+ in 2009) so we know it’s at least in the cards for them. Helton had a wRC+ of 132 as recently as 2009 so if he’s healthy I don’t think a 10 point wRC+ drop to 122 is that wild an expectation, and we all know Ian Stewart has the talent to become an offensive force. Between those four guys, I’m optimistic that at least one of them will have a big year. (If they don’t, then yeah; we’re in BIG TROUBLE) They say that a bird in the hand is worth at least two in the bush but with the Rockies I hope the four birds in the bush is worth at least one in the hand.
4 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!! I can almost taste it now.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 28, 2011 8:34 AM MDT up reply actions
Basically I think we can only count on two Phillies to have a wRC+ of at leat 110 because we have a pretty good idea that the other six will be mediocre this season
while we can only expect two Rockies to have a wRC+ of 110 or higher because we don’t know what to expect from most of our players. Is that fair or I am looking at this through purple tinted glasses?
4 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!! I can almost taste it now.
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 28, 2011 8:38 AM MDT up reply actions
For the pitching side
One of the Big Four starters could get hurt." You can say that about every pitcher in Major League Baseball. Regardless, Hamels, Oswalt, Halladay, and Lee are remarkably durable, past the young pitcher "injury nexus," and probably better bets to stay healthy than most pitchers.
Very fair, but I still believe expecting 900 solid innings is a lot mroe to ask than expecting 220 great innings from a solo ace. There’s more that can go wrong here and if anything does, there’s a big dropoff.
You cite the relievers’ 2010 ERA and their Career ERAs and Career FIPs. Why not their 2010 FIPs, if we’re being totally fair? Madson has been a dominant reliever since mid-2008 (2010 FIP – 2.61). It’s unfair to compare Contreras’ numbers while starting to this (admittedly small) sample of performance out of the bullpen. In any event, Contreras’s 2010 FIP = 3.27. At any rate, reliever numbers are inherently volatile.
If you want to average their 2010 FIP’s it comes out to 3.83. Not as bad as the career ERA’s and FIP’s but still 0.56 runs above their 2010 ERA’s. I used career ERA and FIP because I wanted to compare what they did last season to what they did for the rest of their careers. When they all had lower ERA’s last year than their career numbers, that should raise a red flag. I don’t think it’s fair to expect the same production from Lidge, Madson, Contreas, and Romero as a group this season.
I think you are right on Madson though. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is able to back it up because he’s been awesome for a while now.
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 7:56 AM MDT up reply actions
Overall decline in team offense as measured by team raw OPS. How does this compare to the rest of the league, where offense has been decreasing? Of course the offense isn’t as good as it was in its awesome 2007-8 heyday, but it’s still well better than league average.
Regarless of what measuring stick you want to use, the Phillies offense has been trending the wrong way and I think there’s a strong case that it will continue to do that this season to a point where it is actually below league average. I’m sure you don’t see it falling this far which I think it fair because I only pointed out the negatives but I think you’ve got some work to do to keep up with Atlanta here.
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 8:00 AM MDT up reply actions
I'm so mad at myself for this
That’s inexcusable on my part. As others have mentioned, I’m so used to putting in two m’s when writing Jason Hammel that I did it with Cole Hamels too; and the spell check didn’t really alarm me because it always thinks about half the players names are spelled wrong.
Sorry about that.
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 7:24 AM MDT up reply actions
hahaha
who are those 4 people who picked the nationals?
you still have to play the game, no matter how shiny liriano's FIP is
tulo and bambino - september kings
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
then you can't complain.
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 5:44 PM MDT up reply actions
I got your joke....
it made me smile. :-D
Thanks
"It ain't over 'til it's over." Yogi Berra
"Boys, baseball is a game where you gotta have fun. You do that by winning."
Dave Bristol
"First and foremost, we want to win the Western division" Jim Tracy
RMN was making a funny too
as in the folks who don’t vote in elections complaining about the gubment
two Icehouse 24 oz beers = $3.20 two "fancy" Bud Light 24 oz beers = $5.00
NOW who comes out on top?
by frightened inmate #2 on Mar 23, 2011 6:28 PM MDT up reply actions
I KNEW this was going to happen
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by Andrew Martin on Mar 23, 2011 11:16 PM MDT up reply actions
I think it's funny that they have more votes than the Mets and Marlins combined.
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 8:11 AM MDT up reply actions
seriously
i would put the mets as way more likely to win that division than a strasburg-less nationals
dont get me wrong, in 2012 its a different story, but this year nats over mets i think is a reach
you still have to play the game, no matter how shiny liriano's FIP is
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
Thanks for brining this over to Talking Chop.
Rec’d.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
Twitter: @ScottColeman55
HAHA
Good question. I honestly don’t think there’s a favorite. I see every division as wide open. The west is completely unpredictable with the Rockies, Giants, and Dodgers (plus there always seems to be at least one HUGE surprise in our division every year), a bunch of teams can win the Central with the Reds, Cards, and Brewers, (and Cubs at least not lightyears behind), and as I wrote in this piece I think Atlanta has a great shot to beat Philly in the east.
This has the potential to be one of the most exciting years ever I think.
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 8:16 AM MDT up reply actions
Write down
Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, Rockies, Giants, and Dodgers, put them in a hat and pick one.
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 12:10 PM MDT up reply actions
HAHA
I just did this and picked the Phillies
8 more days until the Rockies Home Opener!!!!!!!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Mar 24, 2011 12:13 PM MDT up reply actions
Post nullified
2011 Colorado Zombies-DeadWalking to the NL West crown
Tulo, CarGo, Ubaldo ,The Toddfather - oh my
Original Thugget Loyalists United #4, UNugg #4, QPU Emeritus, PR Gynocracy VP
take a lap
you still have to play the game, no matter how shiny liriano's FIP is
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110323&content_id=17087596&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
regression is a bitch, eh
you still have to play the game, no matter how shiny liriano's FIP is
tulo and bambino - september kings
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
also brian wilson is hilarious
you still have to play the game, no matter how shiny liriano's FIP is
tulo and bambino - september kings
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
yerrrgh.
Giants’ medical staff.
"ONdres, you just had an appendectomy a week and a half ago and are probably still knitting tissue. Still, you must remember that you’ve spent your best years muddled in minor league ADD misery and now you’re 32 and running downhill…this might possibly be the best year of your baseball career. You think you’re ready to go throw yourself onto the ground in headfirst slides for Sabean and country?
“Joo betcha. I’ve come too far to be selfish and protect my health.”
“Good dog!”
Nomadic baseball fan, with no agenda other than observation/conversation/mass confusion/mass consumption.
by victor frankenstein on Mar 23, 2011 9:42 PM MDT up reply actions
Meaning - Bri, get a second opinion.
Nomadic baseball fan, with no agenda other than observation/conversation/mass confusion/mass consumption.
by victor frankenstein on Mar 23, 2011 9:43 PM MDT up reply actions
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