Fan Confidence and the Rotation

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 26, 2011 11:00 AM MDT in Miscellaneous

It is hard to believe, but the Rockies have tumbled all the way down to .500. Many Rockies fans have likely been
hovering over the panic button on their keyboard, and soon that red button will be fully depressed.

The massive blow, of course, was the injury to Jorge de la Rosa. Unless he gets in contact with Bartolo Colon's doctor, he will be out all of 2011 and likely the first two months of 2011.

The lefty had been the Rockies' most valuable starter of the season, not to mention the rotation's sole southpaw. With the offense still in a funk, trading the best starting pitcher for a fifth starter could hurt.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel are guaranteed to stick in the rotation, and all three have been pitching well collectively of late. Aaron Cook will join the rotation next week. Who will take de la Rosa's spot regularly is yet to be determined. The options:

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2011 - Clayton Mortensen	1-1	6	3	0	0	0	0	29.0	18	9	7	3	12	16	2.17	1.03

Mortensen has succeeded pitching in the rotation for the injured Esmil Rogers and probably has the inside track on the 5-spot. The "poor man's Aaron Cook" has found success with his sinker, but his K/BB suggests he's liable to have his stinkers in the future.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2011 - Greg Reynolds	2-0	3	2	0	0	0	0	14.2	11	5	5	1	5	5	3.07	1.09

Reynolds has been almost as pleasant of a surprise as Mortensen, and both have a similar pitching style. He was scheduled to start Saturday, but the Rockies instead decided to go with

AA Stats	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2011 - Juan Nicasio	5-1	9	9	1	1	0	0	56.2	48	15	14	3	10	63	2.22	1.02

Nicasio was announced yesterday as the starter for Saturday's game. He figures to likely have a one game spot start, unless he completely dominates St. Louis. If the Rockies are looking for upside from the 5-spot, Nicasio is the guy.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2011 - Esmil Rogers	3-1	8	4	0	0	0	0	22.1	29	19	19	4	13	15	7.66	1.88

Rogers is currently on the disabled list, but the right-hander was the fifth starter on opening day, which gives him some leverage in getting back into the rotation picture when he returns.

Ubaldo Jimenez will undoubtedly provide more value, but without Jorge de la Rosa, someone is going to have to step up. The Rockies already cannot win games with stellar pitching performances, so a weak spot in the rotation would make it all the tougher. Who do you have the most confidence in, now and longterm?

Photo from adoration.com

Poll

Which fifth starter gives the Rockies the best chance to get back into contention?

Clayton Mortensen

80 votes

Greg Reynolds

35 votes

Juan Nicasio

71 votes

Esmil Rogers

23 votes

209 votes | Poll has closed

Rockies Fan Confidence Poll

Last tallied on 05/25.

21|1:|0|100&chxt=x,y&chco=5098c7&chd=t:67

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Comments

At this point

It has to be Clayton. I’m looking forward to this start Saturday by Nicasio – even being a spot start. He’s looked great for Tulsa. Already bought my tickets for the game to check him out.

by COROXFAN on May 26, 2011 11:07 AM MDT reply actions

I am pretty high on Mort right now

it should be his job to lose right now.

by Rosenort on May 26, 2011 11:31 AM MDT up reply actions

In a post the other day

I actually counted him as one of the four spots I still feel good about. The fifth spot, to me, is a contest between Cook, Reynolds, Rogers (and now Nicasio, but I didn’t know he was coming up at the time…)

We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!

Whatever the manager does is wrong, unless it works. Then he's a button pusher.

In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener

"I made baseball as much fun as doing your taxes" - Bill James (Simpsons version)

"Everyone study two out situations, count management, and I'll be back with some gluten free crackers"

by Junction Rox on May 26, 2011 1:10 PM MDT up reply actions

I like this order

by Real Perspective on May 26, 2011 4:20 PM MDT up reply actions

Sorry

about DLR, Rox fans. :(

Dbacks injured pitcher curse strikes again.

HEY, FRENCHY! STAR TREK OR STAR WARS?

by DbacksSkins on May 26, 2011 11:16 AM MDT reply actions

nicasio's k and bb numbers are switched

"Don't give up, don't ever give up" - Jim Valvano

by nodakroxfan on May 26, 2011 11:44 AM MDT via mobile reply actions

Im seeing 63 k to 10bb

Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics

by Andrew Martin on May 26, 2011 11:47 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions

hmm

Well someone must have sneekly changed it.. I double checked before I posted hoping I wouldn’t look stupid but alas here I am

"Don't give up, don't ever give up" - Jim Valvano

by nodakroxfan on May 26, 2011 11:57 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions

I changed it as soon as you mentioned it

Thanks

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 26, 2011 12:20 PM MDT up reply actions

no problem

And now I know I don’t have a reading comprehension problem

"Don't give up, don't ever give up" - Jim Valvano

by nodakroxfan on May 26, 2011 12:33 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

Where do I find

a keyboard with that red button on it, because I want one?

"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK

by jrockies on May 26, 2011 12:01 PM MDT reply actions

Amazon. They have everything.

We should check there for the Rockies’ missing bats…

http://www.amazon.com/Abernook-Fake-Keyboard-Buttons/dp/B000L0YVT0

"The game of baseball is made up of many little things. If we do all the little things right, then we'll never have a big thing to worry about" -- Cal Ripken, Sr.
Johnny Herrera Fan Club Member -- "Mr. Fundamental"
Yankee Haters Encouragement Group Member #3

by RoarFrom112 on May 26, 2011 1:58 PM MDT up reply actions

Woha NL west players are falling like flies

Posey out for the year with a broken ankle

Dex Knows
Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point. -C.S. Lewis

by RockiesDave on May 26, 2011 12:09 PM MDT reply actions

its always sad to see a player get injured..

But its great to see that DLR’s injury is equaled out by the injury to Buster Posey. Don’t hate me for thinking that!

Im from Canada, eh

by jordanmowbray on May 26, 2011 1:22 PM MDT up reply actions

I can only chalk it up to

the baseball Gods decided the universe needed symmetry. Sucks for both teams.

"I think I speak for everyone in here when I say: It''s playoffs or bust"- Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger
Orig.Thugget Loyalist #4, UNugg #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy

by SDcat09 on May 26, 2011 1:27 PM MDT up reply actions

And the D-backs make it to the playoffs...

I think I dislike the baseball gods sense of humor if this happens.

by nightninja13 on May 26, 2011 2:01 PM MDT up reply actions

The losses of Posey and DLR are far from being symmetrical.

A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way. - SLC

by mhad on May 26, 2011 6:02 PM MDT up reply actions

I'll rank them:

1. Esmil Rogers. I still think that his future can be in a rotation. Straight fastball or not, I think he has potential upside in all three DIPS categories (K’s, BB’s and HR’s).

2. Juan Nicasio. I don’t think it’s wise in terms of long-term development, but he may actually be the best short-term option, which is why he ranks second for me. Major upside in all categories. Excellent control, misses bats, keeps the ball on the ground. My personal favorite minor leaguer.

3. Clayton Mortensen. Long-term, it’s not likely that he will stick at the MLB level. However, his recent success combined with good control and groundball rates makes me want to see more.

4. Greg Reynolds. I love what he stepped in and did in his two starts, but his DIPS stuff doesn’t bode well for the short- or long-term.

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on May 26, 2011 12:18 PM MDT reply actions

I voted for Nicasio

The most encouraging thing about him is that his K/BB numbers actually have improved this year despite moving up a level. That bodes really well for the Rockies.

Without seeing his games it’s hard to tell but numbers like that suggest that he’s throwing major league stuff to minor league hitters. We’ll find out very soon.

by RhodeIslandRoxfan on May 26, 2011 1:21 PM MDT up reply actions

I voted for Nicasio as well

On the grounds of the need for a difference maker.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 26, 2011 1:24 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

I'm really pumped for Saturday

I want some sort of epic debut. CG shutout please

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on May 26, 2011 2:20 PM MDT up reply actions

And for good measure

he can hit a home run too.

by jrockies on May 26, 2011 2:53 PM MDT up reply actions

I created him on MLB 2k11 last night

And threw a CG SO with him. No joke. First time I’ve accomplished that in 40-50 tries on that game. I usually give up about 15 hits a game.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 26, 2011 3:24 PM MDT up reply actions

My love of FIP is manifested in Nicasio

Part of me imagines him as a Pedro Martinez type.

He could be really good. Like a 8.5+ K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 55%+ GB guy. Like a 2.8 ERA guy consistently.

/purpletinted

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on May 26, 2011 3:53 PM MDT up reply actions

Mortensen

I do not have confidence that Esmil can carry the day, and Nicasio is too untried to trust yet. Reynolds has a history of mediocrity. Mortensen has been pitching well since he joined the team. He is the best bet!

by Real Perspective on May 26, 2011 4:13 PM MDT up reply actions

While I agree that Mortensen is the most likely guy

I think there’s a reason he’s only pitched 65 big league innings – he’s AAAA filler.

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on May 26, 2011 4:16 PM MDT up reply actions

Do you have a 360? I play 2k11 too but I here the show is waaay better

but alas it’s ps3 exclusive

by AbsenteeRoxFAn on May 26, 2011 4:35 PM MDT up reply actions

Therein lies the rub

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 26, 2011 6:03 PM MDT up reply actions

the show is different...

pitching on 2k11 is way better, but batting and fielding are better on the show

you still have to play the game, no matter how shiny liriano's FIP is*

the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox

*liriano's FIP currently sits at 5.14**
** suck it dave cameron

fire jim tracy: if you can closer-by-committee, you can manager-by-committee

by papality on May 26, 2011 9:12 PM MDT up reply actions

Odds of this happening: Juan in four

/got nuthin

We Fear NO ONE.
Because We Know: WE ARE THE ROCKIES.

by The Lodo Magic Man on May 26, 2011 5:02 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

I dont know I personally might be in panic mode!

"just win Baby"....... unless you draft jamarcus russell

by nw3030 on May 26, 2011 12:50 PM MDT reply actions

Aaron Cook

Aaron Cook if he is right and on his game is the best fifth starter, in my opinion. However none of these guys are going to have a sub 1.00 ERA so the question is irrelevant if the Rockies don’t score some freakin runs

by Deep Purple on May 26, 2011 1:09 PM MDT reply actions

I wrote Cook in as the fourth starter already

There’s no choice on him

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 26, 2011 1:25 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions

Is he truly guaranteed a spot now?

I understand that he is Aaron Cook and he has a good, long history with this team….but, I don’t think he should really be guaranteed anything at this point.

What if Nicasio comes in a throws a gem on Saturday. Would they really not give him another start and just hand it over to Cook? And if they do, what if Cook comes back and is mediocre. Does he still get the benefit of the doubt because of what he did two years ago and beyond?

As you said in the article, I think Ubaldo/Chacin/Hammel should be the only spots guaranteed right now, and the last two should be up for grabs. If anything, Mortensen should have more of a stranglehold on that 4th spot in than Cook does.

Alanna Rizzo is my dream girl.

by Cargo's Ball Sack5 on May 26, 2011 3:27 PM MDT up reply actions

Agreed. Give Mortensen first shot.

This is true. Cookie can be a great pitcher, but he will arrive rusty. When he is on he is great, when he is not — ouch!

by Real Perspective on May 26, 2011 4:19 PM MDT up reply actions

He will be guaranteed a spot to start with yes

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on May 26, 2011 6:03 PM MDT up reply actions

as much i dont want to ruin nicasio's arm/shoulder/psyche for the future, given his potential ceiling

i really think he’s our best bet, given mortensen’s babip luck, esmil’s esmil, and reynold’s reynolds.

you still have to play the game, no matter how shiny liriano's FIP is*

the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox

*liriano's FIP currently sits at 5.14**
** suck it dave cameron

fire jim tracy: if you can closer-by-committee, you can manager-by-committee

by papality on May 26, 2011 2:03 PM MDT reply actions

Interesting lineup

1. Seth Smith (L) RF
2. Jonathan Herrera (S) 2B
3. Carlos Gonzalez (L) LF
4. Troy Tulowitzki® SS
5. Todd Helton (L) 1B
6. Ty Wigginton® 3B
7. Chris Iannetta® C
8. Dexter Fowler (S) CF
9. Clayton Mortensen® P

There is nothing like a game of pitch and catch. 40,000 fans in purple and black can't be wrong. What's it amount to? Our Colorado Rockies.
How do you get your kids to behave? Threaten not to take them to a Rockies game. They straighten up REAL QUICK.

by Roxman4ever on May 26, 2011 4:08 PM MDT reply actions

Holy crap at least it's the "A" lineup

Rocktober is not a time of year, it is a religion.

by hjrrockies on May 26, 2011 4:13 PM MDT up reply actions

Like having Smitty up front

I like having Smith up first as he has been the most consistent hitter on the team (after Helton), and gets on base with regularity. Dex will be able to do some damage from deep in the order. If he gets on, Smitty may be able to bring him home.

Cargo has been hitting better. Wonder if Tulo will have more crack after a day of rest.

by Real Perspective on May 26, 2011 4:16 PM MDT up reply actions

I think mortenson has the best chance of giving you what you need from a fifth starter

But they may need more than that. To really be competitive they may need a guy who can give 3rd or 4th starter numbers; nicasio is the only guy who misses enough bats to fall into that category imo

by AbsenteeRoxFAn on May 26, 2011 4:38 PM MDT reply actions