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Wilin Rosario, Gifted Underachiever
by Muzia on Aug 10, 2011 8:39 AM MDT
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WARNING: This Fanpost weighs heavily on conjecture and academic research, less so on stats, and is solely an exercise for exploring a personal theory.
(I am writing this from the viewpoint of a gifted underachiever and as someone pursuing an advanced degree in Education.)
In a recent Pebble Report, I called Rosario a "gifted underachiever" and stated the drop in stats is not a sign of bad character, but of a frustrated young man that is not being challenged. This is my hare-brained attempt to combine educational psychology with minor league baseball scouting and defend a minor league player that I have never met nor even seen play professional ball. This is all conjecture.
Rockies top prospect Wilin Rosario is having a mediocre year by all accounts. The preseason Baseball America Top Prospect #49 enjoyed a prodigious 2010 in Tulsa before a severe knee injury ended his season and prevented his likely September debut with Colorado. Since then, he has regressed offensively and defensively, and will likely see his Top Prospect Status fall with some scouting organizations.
Underachievers are students who exhibit a severe discrepancy between expected achievement and actual achievement. (Reis & McCoach 157)
I think it's fair to say that 2011 Wilin Rosario (current #1 PuRP) classifies as an underachiever.
According to the study, "Factors That Differentiate Underachieving Gifted Students From High-Achieving Gifted Students", there are two factors that rank as "mathematically substantial" in determining the difference between those meeting their talent/ability level, and those that fall short of expectations.
The largest mean differences between gifted achievers and gifted underachievers occurred on the motivation/self-regulation factor and the goal valuation factors. (McCoach and Del Siegle 148)
NOTE: Other factors such as self-perception, attitudes towards school, and attitudes towards teachers --these are all signs of potential poor character-- were not statistically significant . (McCoach and Del Siegle 149)
Let's examine both of these relevant factors and try to determine if Rosario meets these requirements.
Motivation/Self-Regulation
Underachievers may possess knowledge of self-regulatory strategies; however, they may not understand that the effortful use of self-regulatory strategies results in achievement. (McCoach and Del Siegle 146)
If a student is to reach their full potential, they have to continue performing at a high level. The issue with many gifted students is that they are simply more talented than their peers and do not have to exert nearly as much effort in order to meet expectations. These students have the natural ability to succeed without truly trying. Rosario has likely always been the most talented player on his team, no matter the level. The Colorado Rockies' consistent promotion of the young catcher through the minors despite his basic statistics suggests that the team's scouting has always been very fond of Rosario's skill set, and he has rewarded their aggressive approach by excelling at AA at the very young age of 21.
It's obvious that Rosario had a strong sense of self-regulation throughout the minors, with his quick advance and domination of the Texas League in 2010. Despite skipping straight from Rookie Ball to A+ Modesto as a 20 year old, Rosario continued to advance against better levels of competition. You can only successfully make those jumps through hard work and plenty of commitment to your craft. His first season at Tulsa was the latest test, and he performed with flying colors.
Then came the knee injury, and the first real sense of frustration for Rosario. He went from the brink of the major leagues as a 21 year old (!) to a long season of rehabilitation and a repeat visit to Tulsa.
Attitudes and emotional factors must also be in place to enable the student to use intellectual potential. Peterson & Colangelo describe the at-risk student as lacking the resiliency to deal with failure. (Carper 29)
The knee injury cannot be understated enough. Despite appearing completely recovered, the mental and emotional frustration from this injury -- combined with a slow start this season in AA -- may have put Rosario into a very fragile state as an emotional person.
It's very simple to think of minor league prospects as baseball players that we can evaluate purely by stats and scouting. But many prospects --especially international free agents-- are likely more prone to intangibles that don't show up in the spreadsheet. (Remember, Rosario went straight from the Dominican Republic to Casper, Wyoming at age 17.)
For a talent that has always succeeded professionally, Rosario just met his first taste of failure.
Goal Valuation
Along with the failure of suffering a potentially catastrophic knee injury, Rosario also had to repeat the year at Tulsa, an environment he had already completely dominated. Gifted students need constant challenges to test their abilities or else they stagnate and become bored, (Carper 38) and another year with the Drillers after an .894 OPS is the definition of stagnation.
It is the role of the organization to develop their players and prepare them for a major league career. The front office determines what level a player is ready for while simultaneously pushing them to advance as players. With the injury, there were plenty of reasons to keep Rosario in Tulsa. He has not responded well.
David OhNo has mentioned on Twitter that Rosario "acts bored" and "his defense has gone backwards." Within a vacuum, this could be taken as a sign of bad character; it also fits the profile of a gifted talent who is not being challenged to improve.
Rosario was chosen to represent the Rockies in the Futures Game, played before the 2011 All Star Game. This is a direct notice to Rosario that Colorado values him and sees him as an integral part of their organizational future and wanted to challenge him by placing him among the top minor league talent. OhNo mentioned this could be a way for the organization to jumpstart Rosario.
*SSS ALERT*
What did Rosario do in the week after this challenge?
He boasted a .417/.500/.958 line with Tulsa, crushing four homeruns in six games.
He hasn't hit a homerun since.
This week could be noise in the data, and the sample certainly is small and likely insignificant. Yet, it completely fits within the profile of a gifted player who responded to a challenge, then settled back into the tedium of everyday life as a AA ballplayer.
This isn't an isolated pattern. Try looking at Rosario's stat lines from this viewpoint instead of a player that has put up inconsistent seasons.
2007: Sent to Casper as an 18 year old after only a single season in the Dominican Summer League; adjusts to serious challenge (including playing in new country against players 2-3 years older).
2008: Returns to Casper; dominates.
2009: Rushed to Modesto, skipping Asheville entirely; adjusts to serious challenge.
2010: Absolutely crushes Tulsa, on the brink of MLB debut.
2011: Return trip to Tulsa; stagnates/regresses.
It's easy to view these seasons as inconsistent. Within context, however, you see a young player adjust to each new challenge before finally stagnating in 2011 due to injury/frustration/lack of challenge.
Despite his overall numbers this season, Dan O'Dowd has maintained that Rosario is going to be on the Rockies Opening Day roster in 2012. They know he needs a challenge in order to reach his potential, and have pushed him at an accelerated rate since signing him as a free agent in 2006.
I don't know Wilin Rosario. I've never talked to him, never seen him play live; however, he does fit the profile of the underachieving student this season. His 2011 numbers may suggest he's not ready for the major leagues, but a challenge may be exactly what this young talents needs right now in order to successfully reach his ceiling. I sincerely hope Dan O'Dowd and the rest of the front office gives him the opportunity.
Works Cited:
Carper, Ann. Bright Students in a Wasteland: The At-Risk Gifted; A Qualitative Study of Fourteen Gifted Dropouts. North Carolina State University, 2002
McCoach, D. Betsy and Del Siegle. Factors That Differentiate Underachieving Gifted Students From High-Achieving Gifted Students. Gifted Child Quarterly, 47:114, 2003
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).
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well this has immediately become one of my favorite posts here
It also does a much better job of hitting on psychological processes than I ever do in my poorly worded, esoteric comments.
The role of challenge is huge. Challenge and opportunity is frequently a major contributor to employee engagement (though not the biggest). Being asked to repeat AA certainly made sense though as your central premise suggests, if Rosario felt he was ready for AAA, the lack of a promotion may have been a major demotivator.
This is also a central reason why in the past few weeks I’ve become a bit more vocal about installing a humidor and making C.Springs a legitimate environment. Despite AAA serving as an organ bank typically, it serves other functions as well – it represents a promotion to the players and even though it may not be much of a skill jump, its symbolic value may be huge. It’s also a new experience in and of itself which may keep someone engaged. Additionally, if we keep holding players in AA who have clearly surpassed that level (since our AAA sucks for developmental purposes) it prevents us from being able to move players from A+ to AA due to crowding – a particularly bad event given a build-from-within organization like the Rockies.
Referring back to Rosario and individual development – this is where I think the role of a sports psychologist (or psychological theory) is just as, if not more beneficial at the lower levels of the organization. Players need to understand that this journey is about development and not showing off ability. The classic Billy Beane story is that by the time he reached the majors he had poor familiarity with applying oneself and developing and had merely relied on his ability, when ability alone was no longer enough, he crumbled.
I’d really, really recommend the work of Carol Dweck if you’re interested in this. Her recent work centers around the impact that different conceptions of ability may have. Specifically, is ability a natural gift that is fairly static and un-malleable, or is ability the product of development?
The research reveals some pretty surprising differences in how children remain motivated as well as deal with failure following a simple manipulation. If after success children are praised for their effort (IE you must have worked really hard on that!) as opposed to praised for ability (IE you must be really smart!), the effects that has on childrens’ 1. resiliency following failure 2. the types of information they are interested in gathering and 3. their willingness to try new challenges rather than repeat the same are (in my opinion) absolutely huge. (ask me if you want more info)
Further, none of this is to say that simply complimenting players on effort rather than ability will change everything, but a few things make me think this line of research can have quite an impact on player development
1. Player development is long and difficult – there are many opportunities to apply this (and other) type(s) of research.
2. Given that baseball took about 100 years to understand the value of a ‘base on balls’, I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to assume that a lot of these principles/ideas/theories regarding development have been poorly implemented at best (I guess the Twins are the biggest exception).
3. Baseball, and sports in general appear much, much more as an ability domain compared to other areas – computer programming, mathematics ability, effective writing, etc. etc. I’d venture a guess to say that the majority of people hold a more fixed few of ability (IE natural ability that can’t be changed much), rather than a more growth view and that positive improvements in skill can and frequently do occur – but via hard work (Jose Bautista anyone?)
Maybe I spend too much time reading this stuff, but I think it can have a huge impact. After all getting 1 more ML caliber player (not even all-star) per draft would make a significant impact.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I couldn't agree more about the AAA point.
Rosario should be in the Springs right now, and I’d guess he’d put up huge numbers because of the psychological effect of a promotion (independent of the offensive effects of the PCL).
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Is a short, easy to read book that encapsulates the bulk of her research.
If you have access to online scholarly journals,
Dweck, C. S., & Leggett, E. L. (1988). A social-cognitive approach to motivation and personality. Psychological Review, 95, 256-273.
Erdley, C. A., & Dweck, C. S. (1993). Children’s implicit personality theories as predictors of their social judgments. Child Development, 64, 863-878.
Kamins, M. L., Dweck, C. S. (1999). Person versus process praise and criticism: Implications for contingent self-worth and coping. Developmental Psychology, 35, 835-847.
Heslin, P. A., VandeWalle, D. (2008). Managers’ implicit assumptions about personnel. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 17, 219-223.
Heslin, P. A., VandeWalle, D., Latham, G. P. (2006). Keen to help? Managers’ implicit person theories and their subsequent employee coaching. Personnel Psychology, 59, 871 – 902.
If you go the journal article route I’d recommend the last 3 articles the most (Kamins and the Heslin ones).
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I completely agree with this post.
At this point in the season, we all know that Rosario is better than the Fonz. The Rockies need to give the fan base something to be excited about and to rally around. Rosario needs to dawn the purple pinstripes now.
Colorado College Hockey, Colorado Avalanche, Colorado Rockies fan to the death.
"If you can't accept losing, You can't win." -Vince Lombardi
fixed
The Rockies need to give Rosario something to be excited about
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Yep, this is more in the spirit of the post.
The fanbase excitement should come, if he’s as good as he’s shown in the past.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
...as long as we play him
and you know, not use him as a pinch hitter 4 times and give him 2 starts total in Sept…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I'm not sure I agree with this.
I understand the point Muzia is making and I think he makes it well. What I disagree with is the idea that it is somehow the Rockies’ job to give Rosario something to be excited about.
The point of the Rockies organization is, in my opinion, to build a consistent, winning team. To build a team that can go to the World Series, and then do it again — to build a contending team. Everything below that — the farm system, etc. — is set up to build to that pinnacle.
So, the point is not to coddle players who only respond when they receive repeated challenges. If Rosario was serious about playing in the majors, about contributing to the this ideal contending team, then what I would like to see from him would be not only a response to a challenge like moving to a new level, but also consistently good play at whatever level he is at. Being bored at a certain level is not an excuse for poor play. What it suggests to me is that he is not interested in trying unless the challenge is interesting to him.
This comes down to asking what creates success — is it talent, or grinding hard work? To me it’s a combination of both, but hard work is key. Appearing to have been bored when challenges presented by the organization were not hard enough (and of course I am just guessing at what his real mental state is, based on the performance record above) does not strike me as the mark of someone who can struggle through times when talent fails with pure hard work. And that doesn’t seem like someone who is going to be a consistent, contributing member of a major league team.
@bix783
leavebeforethelightscome.blogspot.com
The concept of "coddling players", in my estimation, is outdated and needlessly without feeling
People have changed over the past 50 years. Yeah, I know, Nolan Ryan regularly threw 700 pitches in a start and had to throw side sessions as well, and then go landscape his yard. Willie Mays played on 2 broken legs. Players washed out all the time because of a lack of mental toughness.
We know better about a lot of these things now, and if Rosario needs another carrot dangled in front of him, well, the team wants the best player in the majors. Why wouldn’t they dangle that carrot?
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 10, 2011 1:20 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm not talking about coddling.
I’m not advocating sticking hot needles in his knee and telling him to suck it up. What I meant more was that I’m not convinced dangling that carrot won’t just achieve the short-term success of him overcoming a new challenge, to be followed by a regression, as seems to have been his pattern.
@bix783
leavebeforethelightscome.blogspot.com
The question is what "new challenge" will he get once he's in The Show?
Playing against the best every day ought to be enough, but it’s not guaranteed. Given his talent, though, that’s a chance you need to take. Four months of pre-boredom Rosario’s better than The Fonz.
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
I think even a AAA promotion right now would do wonders for the kid, as I said above.
If he’s stuck in a rut, keeping him in Tulsa isn’t going to inspire him. It’ll continue to frustrate him.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
maybe his challenge will be getting a bigger paycheck, or HOF.
The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient.
by rockieprogress on Aug 10, 2011 5:50 PM MDT up reply actions
If you have a high performing player
who has displayed interest in stepping up his game (which Wilin may or may not have shown), then it benefits everyone to allow him the opportunity to step up his game.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Sorry, it wasn't meant so much directed at you as directed at the concept of coddling a minor leaguer
Welcome to the limitations of a message board, right?
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 10, 2011 2:31 PM MDT up reply actions
Also maybe I have Ian Stewart foremost in my mind right now.
@bix783
leavebeforethelightscome.blogspot.com
I find this a bit constricting and taking too hard a stance (which I may be guilty of too)
regardless of what technically constitutes as coddling and whether promoting him would be considered such (which it probably wouldn’t given his performance), Wilin Rosario is still human.
IF he is less motivated and frustrated at repeating a level (as many a human would be), I’d go on to say 1. his performance has decreased but probably not due to any intentional moves by him 2. If point 1 were to be in fact true, then considering his decreased motivation and under-achievement, his numbers should still be considered impressive.
I agree that the point of the organization is not to coddle players. I DO think however that it is the purpose of the organization to develop players who can and do play at the best of their ability. I think AAA as it is currently handled impedes development and that promoting Rosario would not be coddling. His performance last season justified the promotion so coddling wouldn’t be the right word.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I agree with you there.
Yes, everyone gets frustrated with being asked to repeat a level. If it seemed unintentional or was just a little bit, then maybe that would make more sense to me.
@bix783
leavebeforethelightscome.blogspot.com
Somehow
I think a “Bobs” Office Space reference is necessary. Dan O’Dowd as Lumberg? I guess I can see it.
what would you say you "do" down in AA Tulsa?
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 10, 2011 11:48 AM MDT up reply actions
Will...Willee...Will not play in AA anymore, that's for sure.
Worshiping the holy trinity of Cargo, Tulo, and Ubaldo
by squalene203 on Aug 10, 2011 11:52 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'll give you another example for your theories
Desmond Jennings, widely regarded as on the top prospects in minor league baseball, was sent to AAA by the Rays for the 2nd straight year, after mediocre big league stats in limited playing opportunities at the end of the 2010 season.
His stats in his AAA repeat year were pretty good, but he wasn’t exactly tearing up the league for someone with his talent level. He was underachieving, though not doing badly.
Since being called up to the big leagues several weeks ago, he’s blowing and going … far better stats than at AAA.
Could Rosario be in the same boat? Just waiting to use his talent at a level where it’s a challenge to do so?
2011 Rockies -- what the hell?
Jennings improved his numbers in AAA this season though
Rosario has taken a gigantic step backwards.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 10, 2011 12:03 PM MDT up reply actions
I really, really like this example.
It’s not the same as Rosario, but it certainly illustrates a very talented guy playing below his potential level.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
I guess it's possible.
It’s also possible he’s not as good as we hoped. I get a sort of grasping at straws vibe from people saying, “Oh he’s just bored, he’s still good.” A .280 OBP in AA? Scary.
Worshiping the holy trinity of Cargo, Tulo, and Ubaldo
his 2010 campaign is nearly impossible to consider a fluke
it’s more likely that his knee injury as severely limited his ability to reach his talent level. That’s a strong possibility.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
I don't believe anyone here has argued his 2010 season was a fluke
You seem to be taking the other extreme however when you ask us to throw out his 2010 numbers because he just needs a new challenge. While you do an excellent job of selling your point in this piece, I still believe that at the end of the day, the point itself is fool’s gold.
Even if you are correct in the first part of your argument in which you believe that in Rosario’s mind he needs a new challenge because he already proved himself in Tulsa with an .894 OPS propelled by an amazing .552 SLG% in 297 PA’s last season, the reality is that he doesn’t. While he has passed the “hit for power” test with a remarkable score, he has still failed the OBP exam – and generally when you combine mesmerizing pop, a low OBP, a low BB%, and high K%, with major league pitching, the result isn’t so hot for the hitter.
Here’s three numbers for you….
.317
22%
6.4%
Those are the CAREER OBP, K%, and BB% numbers for Rosario – and the scary thing is, you might not be able to pick a better trio of stats when it comes to numbers predicting major league success.
So if you are right in that Rosario thinks he needs a new challenge, I’ll issue him one right now. …
Wilin, start to improve your OBP, K%, and BB% numbers right now because as talented as you are, you have failed to master these skills throught the entirety of you minor league career.
As I said yesterday, I don’t believe Rosario’s 2011 changes his ceiling, it just makes me wonder a little harder if he will ever reach it. His power will go to waste if he can’t show improvements in the other departments I just mentioned – and if we’re talking about anything beyond a September callup, MLB is not the place to work on them.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 10, 2011 1:21 PM MDT up reply actions 3 recs
Very nice post.
I’m afraid I agree more with RIRF here.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Aug 10, 2011 1:41 PM MDT up reply actions
I don't know what's happened this year with Rosario
It could be the knee injury permanently ruined any chance of him reaching his ceiling.
It could be a lack of motivation permanently hindering his potential.
I wasn’t trying to sell this point. As I said in the beginning, this is just my attempt at exploring my theory and I have no idea what is actually going on in Rosario’s head right now.
I do know that the organization still thinks very highly of Rosario despite the numbers you have suggested. Their consistent behavior in advancing him despite statistical evidence suggests as much. O’Dowd has consistently suggested that Rosario will be on the club next year. There’s something else going on from the coaching and development standpoint that’s not evident in the on-field performance. Simple stats can not tell this entire story, and it’s foolish to depend solely on them.
This is simply my way of explaining it with my background. Like I said, it’s conjecture.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
It could be the knee injury permanently ruined any chance of him reaching his ceiling.
This scares me because I think it’s very much on the table.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 10, 2011 2:02 PM MDT up reply actions
I'm not convinced the knee injury changes his offensive potential
It could impact his defense, or the time he is able to play at catcher before shifting to another position. There is only so much wear and tear the knee can take playing catcher.
However I do think the knee injury could have impacted his offense indirectly, in that rehabbing that and having to work to get back to a suitable defensive level has detracted from him working on his offense. Oh and the complency I mentioned.
Really my preference is to stick in a humidor at AAA (for many benefits), and to give Rosario the chance to demonstrate a better OBP at AAA before being promoted to MLB, without the destractions of coming back from knee surgery.
by Britbronco22 on Aug 10, 2011 3:22 PM MDT up reply actions
From a statistical standpoint, looking at career OBP and K% for Rosario doesn't work
especially since he has consistently been playing against teams that are several years more advanced than him, while also learning the most difficult position on the field.
You’re comparing apples to oranges here. The standalone career numbers are not impressive when taken out of context.
I prefer to see that he has the potential for much improved numbers, as based on his 2010 season. He isn’t showing that potential this year, and I’m trying to find an explanation for it.
Citing career stats ignores the crux of my argument, and evaluates Rosario within a vacuum. There are far more facets to this enigma.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
This is where I think Britbronco22 hit on an important point
It’s probably not just one thing that’s caused Rosario’s disappointing season, it’s more likely that a bunch of things that have played into it. We’ve mentioned three strong candidates already…..
1) He’s bored after last season and needs a new challenge
2) He may not be the same player he was before the knee injury
3) He’s never been an elite batter in the OBP, K%, and BB% departments and now pitchers are learning to take advantage of that
…..It’s possible they are all playing into it.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 10, 2011 2:07 PM MDT up reply actions
you realize that this is more of an exploration into what might be an untapped area of player development
using Wilin Rosario as an example
Rather than “what’s the deal with our #1 Purp?”, right?
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 10, 2011 2:28 PM MDT up reply actions
I'd argue it's both
The two are intertwined as this piece would never have been written if our #1 PuRP wasn’t struggling.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 10, 2011 3:01 PM MDT up reply actions
Well, considering that I talked Muzia into writing this piece
it’s about the exploration of developmental psychology that happens to be wrapped in Wil Rosario.
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 10, 2011 3:06 PM MDT up reply actions
I had the theory about Rosario in particular
but it can easily apply to more general examples. Rosario’s case really fit the profile though.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
yeah, should've elaborated
his idea, his writing, his theory, me promising all the riches of the internet if he wrote it on PR
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 10, 2011 3:13 PM MDT up reply actions
Many of these same arguments are also very relevant to Ian Stewart.
It could be a separate article, but the same principles.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
If Ian isn't feeling challenged by MLB
I don’t think he’s been paying attention…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Aug 10, 2011 4:12 PM MDT up reply actions
Underachievers may possess knowledge of self-regulatory strategies; however, they may not understand that the effortful use of self-regulatory strategies results in achievement. (McCoach and Del Siegle 146)
This speaks directly to the work ethic questions we’ve heard regarding Stewart. He has the talent to be a league average bat without much effort, but we haven’t really seen him try to become any more than that.
This year? Frustration sets in and he’s completely broken because he doesn’t know how to work his way out of the rut.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
So he needs to learn the value of hard work?
Clearly he should have slopped more hogs as a kid…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
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by Junction Rox on Aug 10, 2011 4:17 PM MDT up reply actions
/full circle
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 10, 2011 4:31 PM MDT up reply actions 2 recs
That's a really interesting point to apply to Stewart.
And it may be that his only answer here lies in another organization/change of scenery?
@bix783
leavebeforethelightscome.blogspot.com
Fresh start maybe, with his own failure behind him to serve as some sort of motivator
and another GM saying “we want you to be a legitimate 4-5 hole guy, key lineup piece, crushing the ball” whatever, might give him a bit of oomph or something.
/conjecture
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 10, 2011 4:18 PM MDT up reply actions
Or the added pressure could just make him spiral down faster
It’s really kind of hard to predict, especially without knowing him…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Aug 10, 2011 4:24 PM MDT up reply actions
he's perpetually in sink or swim now
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 10, 2011 4:24 PM MDT up reply actions
I also think these problems are compounded by
1. Stewart not having the best of contact skills
2. Hitting is the most difficult thing in sports, and CO hitters essentially have to learn how to hit 2 sets of pitches – home and road ones. This makes applying adjustments one is attempting make more difficult and may make realizing the payoff longer to occur.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
He may need the promotion
to be motivated to work on those areas. It would be difficult to tell someone to start taking pitches they know they could otherwise hit in AA. A hit is always better than a walk.
Also the 4th option is just random statistical variation. He’s probably not as good as he was in 2010 but he’s probably better than he has been in 2011.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Also, as any psychology study ultimately reports
if we could isolate the impact of this repetition of AA and if it did demotivate him, we’d still be talking about something that at best explained like 25% of the variance (IE decrease). Such is the nature of human behavior.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Gifted Underachiever = Bad Character
I have to take issue with this statement:
“the drop in stats is not a sign of bad character, but of a frustrated young man that is not being challenged”
For me, your definition of a “gifted underachiever” sounds to me like someone with character issues.
A high character player would be pushing himself to attain his full potential, regardless of competition level or coaching.
NOTE: Other factors such as self-perception, attitudes towards school, and attitudes towards teachers (these are all signs of potential poor character) were not statistically significant . (McCoach and Del Siegle 149)
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 10, 2011 3:50 PM MDT up reply actions
You're assuming every single person/player has the same motivations and work ethic. They do not.
Because someone gets frustrated and fails to reach their potential does not mean they have poor character issues. It could mean they get frustrated and fail to reach their potential.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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Best example of gifted overachiever...
I can think of is Randy Moss, in his Oakland days. He was bored there and did not take his job seriously.
I think most people would agree that Moss is somewhere towards the “bad character” side of the spectrum, in no small part for how he handled himself in Oakland.
Likewise with Rosario, there could be a silver lining that he realizes his full potential when he is challenged (ie., big league call up). Similar to how Moss got his “big league call up” to New England.
But, if your conjecture is correct, I would still call this an underlying character issue.
I didn't quote it, but many articles claim that the later these problems arise, the easier they are to correct with "baiting"
You convince the student that his full effort is necessary within a given focused subject and they dive head-first into it. It’s less of a character issue and more of an interest issue.
Side note: One of the prime examples of baiting in mathematics is figuring out baseball statistics and team salaries. I thought that was fascinating.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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Was I smart enough to subconsciously bait myself with baseball statistics?
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 10, 2011 4:32 PM MDT up reply actions
It's only baiting if you weren't interested in math beforehand...
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Oh I see
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 10, 2011 4:36 PM MDT up reply actions
Randy Moss is a great example, by the way
but he fits into the statistically unlikely category of someone with a poor self-perception and poor attitude towards teachers.
This is where the problem arises with using such a model to talk about an unknown. We simply don’t know where Rosario fits personality-wise.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
that's an important disclaimer
Great article, by the way, very thought provoking.
I'm glad for that :)
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
I was thinking I hadn't seen you before
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 10, 2011 4:16 PM MDT up reply actions
Rockies vicctories have indeed been a rare sight
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 10, 2011 4:33 PM MDT up reply actions
ha cha cha cha
I was thinking he was from an alternate timeline where the Rockies won the 2007 WS
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 10, 2011 4:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Perhaps I missed this
but what role does the variable of “stakes” play into all of this? Its one thing to coast on talent and “underachieve” in school when, for the most part, you are going to advance at the same rate and you aren’t really fighting for anything of huge value, but its quite another when the stakes are high and you still coast. If you take the average “smart underachiever” HS or college kid, chances are they can still “coast” on talent to get into a decent college/grad program/law school or whatever so long as they aren’t also insanely lazy or otherwise self-destructive, but its quite another when the stakes are something as rarified (and exclusive) as The Show.
In short, I totally dig the “bored student” concept, but I just don’t know if I agree that its an apples/apples comparison here.
I don’t know either, but I think many elements are similar and it was worth writing for my own curiosity.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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by Muzia on Aug 10, 2011 8:17 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
everyone else already praised this a ton, but i'll just say for myself this was a great read
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
lets just use our 2012 money for something good and not another wigginton
said it before, And
I’ll say it again
Muzia Rules!
The Big Purple Machine will make a believer outta you!
Muzia, please, APA formatting
References
Carper, A. (2002). Bright Students in a Wasteland: The At-Risk Gifted; A Qualitative Study of Fourteen Gifted Dropouts. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation. North Carolina State University, North Carolina.
McCoach, D. B. & Siegle D. (2003). Factors That Differentiate Underachieving Gifted Students From High-Achieving Gifted Students. Gifted Child Quarterly, 47, 144-154.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
You don't underline book titles no more?
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Aug 11, 2011 8:09 AM MDT up reply actions
ain't no books cited
otherwise we italicize book titles.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I wonder if this is something that the organization should think about applied broadly, not just to Rosario?
Other people have already brought up Ian Stewart as an example of another former top prospect who seems very talented, but has underachieved. But I wonder whether the organization’s problems with top draft picks (aside from Tulo) stem from just not figuring out how to get gifted athletes to self-regulate effectively (and to deal with failure or injury effectively)?
(Thanks for the thought-provoking article, Muzia.)
"Are they called the Rockies because they rock?" - 7 y.o.
I'm late with my comments but
I wanted to read it again because it was so well written and thought provoking. I hope the Rockies organization reads this and takes a long hard look at some of their practices.
Thanks for all your time , Muzia. and thanks for all the commenters…very good discussion.!!
link?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
It was on twitter Aug 17th..
he was in a discussion with me, ATF and David Ohno. You should check his twitter feed, here’s the main point he made.
so wait, scott baker or craig baker?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Craig Baker
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 20, 2011 9:08 PM MDT up reply actions
That sounds like the definition of someone who needs a new challenge.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
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