NL West Report: Dodgers Must Trade Andre Ethier
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2011 10:00 AM MDT
in NL West Report
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PrintThe Dodgers situation should seem familiar to Rockies fans. Not the off-field dramatics - no, push that aside and you'll see a skeleton of a team comparable to the Rockies last offseason. There is a young ace coming off a near Cy Young breakout season, coupled with two sluggers capable of making a run at an MVP trophy.
Furthermore, one of those pieces started to degrade in value this season for the Rockies, and Dan O'Dowd responded by dealing Ubaldo Jimenez before (he believed) his value would diminish more. That parallel extends to Dodgertown as well.
In May 2010, TrueBlueLA hosted a "Triple Crown Watch" widget on their front page, noting that Ethier was leading all three categories in the NL by a fair margin. This April, the Dodgers' right-fielder compiled a 30-game hit streak. He was an All-Star just one month ago. Despite all this, dealing Ethier this offseason is becoming an obvious move.
Ethier himself saw the writing on the wall before the season and was quite vocal about it, but this season only pushes that reality further. With the Dodgers falling further out of contention, an aging team with financial problems would be wise to get younger. Ethier will enter his final year of arbitration in 2012 before becoming a free agent for the first time. He figures to be paid well then, but it probably isn't a good use of the Dodgers' money.
Despite a .286 average and .362 OBP that are in line with his career numbers, there is reason to be concerned about Ethier's performance going forward.
The biggest issue is the disappearance of his power. Ethier's ISO of just .127 is ranked 111th out of 157 qualified MLB hitters, behind the likes of Aubrey Huff, Juan Rivera and Dexter Fowler. It is comparable to the team ISO of the Oakland Athletics (.125) and the number posted by Mark Ellis in a Rockies uniform (.123). This is almost assuredly due to lingering effects from wrist injuries, but that doesn't mean his power will suddenly return.
His left/right splits are a concern as well. Ethier owns just a 56 wRC+ vs left-handed pitchers this season, 77 for his career. (For comparison, Seth Smith checks in with a season line at 59, career at 53). He has mauled right-handers enough that he still starts regularly, but that weakness vs LHP is significant and well established in over 870 career plate appearances.
Defense is another hole in his game. Ethier owns the fifth-worst UZR among MLB outfielders since 2009, and while he owns a positive score in 2011, Total Zone still grades him out just as poorly as ever.
I have been an Ethier backer for a while, and his ability to smoke line drives off RHP still very much remains. He is a fantastic hitter still, but he won't be a fit in Los Angeles past 2012, not on his career-making free agent contract. And not when he's being out-produced this season by a similar profiled player in Seth Smith. The Dodgers would be wise to get a couple young guys to infuse onto the roster. If they play their cards right, maybe they could get a young outfielder or a young starting pitcher.
NL West Report
Arizona (72-59, 1st, W3)
Last Week: 3-4. 0-3 @ Braves. 3-1 @ Nationals.
You Should Know: The Diamondbacks started former Blue Jays Aaron Hill and John McDonald for the first time Wednesday. Not only that, but their infield mates, Lyle Overbay and Ryan Roberts, are also former Blue Jays. Not only THAT, but all four of them actually started in those exact infield spots for Toronto on May 27, 2007. Pure silliness.
Divisional Change: Increased their lead to 2.5 games in the division.
This Week: 3 game home series vs. Padres. 3 game home series vs. Rockies.
News: The biggest waiver trade this week did happen in the NL West, but it wasn't with Wandy Rodriguez. The Diamondbacks traded Kelly Johnson to Toronto for 2B Aaron Hill and SS John McDonald. The deal is a bit confusing, as Kevin Towers gave up an underperforming second-sacker that was still having a much better season than Hill or McDonald are. It does, however, give Arizona a veteran shortstop in Stephen Drew's absence, which was a large motivator in the deal.
Upon being traded away from a potential playoff situation, Kelly Johnson felt a bit cheated. In that moment, Nick Piecoro was able to steal a wonderful, honest quote from Toronto's new second baseman:
"I think 'KT' (GM Kevin Towers) would rather throw up three times a day after eating than have his team strike out a lot" - Kelly Johnson
Ironically, Kevin Towers hasn't always been so against strikeouts. As Jack Moore pointed out on Fangraphs, Towers' strikeout motivated trades might actually be a result of the philosophy of manager Kirk Gibson.
The Diamondbacks left Chase Field and visited Philadelphia and Atlanta, where they either forgot how to hit, or they faced good pitching. One of the two. Either way, their week of offense was historically bad, as Jim McLennan points out.
Baseball America's Jim Callis wrote that the Diamondbacks had the best draft in the division and a top five draft class in MLB. His claim is not surprising.
Arizona has become an easy target for gutting their farm for Dan Haren, with most pointing to the deal as a classic case of the danger of dealing prospects. Four years since the deal, Jason Hunt analyzes the trade for MLB Daily Dish on several levels - the players directly involved and the traded those players facilitated. His conclusion - Arizona got a lot of value from Haren, and the deal is a wash if not a good trade for the Diamondbacks.
Tim Dierkes highlights Jerry DiPoto as a potential candidate for open GM positions this off-season.
Arizona cancelled batting practice before each of their last three games, all wins.
Finally, your must read humor link of the week, a fake NL West Summit between Bud Selig and the NL West teams, as concocted by Zavada's Mustache.
Transactions: Traded 2B Kelly Johnson to Toronto for 2B Aaron Hill and SS John McDonald (8/23). Designated UT Cody Ransom for assignment (8/24).
Injuries: Justin Upton has a bruised left elbow after being hit by a pitch, but he is fine.
Los Angeles (60-69, 4th, W3, 11.0 GB)
Last Week: 4-2. 1-2 @ Rockies. 3-0 @ Cardinals. The sweep of the Cardinals allowed the Dodgers toregain the lead in the franchise series 1002 to 1001.
You Should Know: Since August 9, the Dodgers are 6-0 in games started by Clayton Kershaw and Hiroki Kuroda. They are 2-7 in games started by the rest of the rotation. The Rockies miss BOTH Kershaw and Kuroda this weekend.
Divisional Change: Gained 1.5 games on first place Arizona.
This Week: 3 game home series vs. Rockies. 3 game home series vs. Padres. 1 road make-up game @ Pirates.
News: In what might be the most humorous and obvious connection since Terelle Pryor to the Raiders, the Cubs are interested in Dodgers GM Ned Colletti to become their next general manager. He'd fit right there in continuing the tradition of filling a roster with overpaid veterans. Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness (a Dodgers Blog) explores the inescapable parallels between Colletti and Jim Hendry further.
Who will be the Dodgers' first baseman on Opening Day 2012? James Loney is expected to be non-tendered. Jerry Sands is being groomed as an outfielder. How about Scott Van Slyke?
There is little for a Dodgers blogger to write about in a positive way these days. That might be because Clayton Kershaw is hogging all the awesomesauce. Seriously, the 23-year-old lefty is having a ridiculous season and just might become the best pitcher of the 2006 draft class in the end.
The rest of the Dodgers staff have a 44-64 record.
3B Casey Blake doesn't want to be done playing baseball, but his body may force it. Blake has a pinched nerve in his neck, and he is being forced to re-evaluate his future.
Transactions: Recalled C A.J. Ellis from AAA Albuquerque and designated C Dioner Navarro for assignment over "philosophical differences" (8/23). Optioned RHP Josh Lindblom to AA Chattanooga.
Injuries: Activated RHP Kenley Jansen from the 15-day DL (8/24). 3B Casey Blake is day-to-day with a sore shoulder. LHP Ted Lilly has a sore neck but should still start tonight thanks to acupuncture. SS Dee Gordon is on a rehab assignment and could return tomorrow.
San Diego (60-71, 5th, W1, 12.0 GB)
Last Week: 4-1. 3-0 vs. Marlins. 1-1 @ Giants.
You Should Know: The Padres are 11 games under .500, but their run differential dictates a Pythagorean W/L of 66-65.
Divisional Change: Gained two games in the division.
This Week: 3 game road series @ Diamondbacks. 3 game road series @ Dodgers.
News: Heath Bell was claimed on waivers by the Giants this week, but a trade of Bell isn't likely. This is notable, because now that Bell has been claimed, he cannot be traded for the rest of the season (except to the Giants by today), so I get five weeks off from Heath Bell trade talk. Yay!
Padres sandwich pick and 54th overall selection Brett Austin turned down $1.5million from San Diego. For comparison, the Rockies signed 45th overall pick Trevor Story for under $1million, and Story was the highest above slot of any Rockies signee.
Nick Hundley was one of the best hitters in the entire National League in April. After slowing down, Hundley injured his elbow. Finally back, he's producing once again. Hundley was awarded the NL Player of the Week Award on Monday.
Rockies fans might be excited by a five game win streak, but it's worth noting the Padres had one last week too until Tim Lincecum broke it Wednesday in an epic battle for all Tims.
Transactions: Designated RHP Pat Neshek for assignment (8/21). Neshek cleared waivers and was assigned to AAA Tucson (8/24).
Injuries: Activated RHP Ernesto Frieri from the 15-day DL (8/21).
San Francisco (69-62, 2nd, L1, 3.0 GB)
Last Week: 2-5. 1-2 @ Astros. 1-1 @ Padres. 0-1 vs. Astros. Their loss yesterday came in a very intriguing pitching match-up, with the suddenly resurgent Ryan Vogelsong losing to Henry Sosa, a forgotten pitching prospect the Giants traded to Houston for Jeff Keppinger.
You Should Know: The Giants have the worst run differential in the division.... At three games behind, the Giants are perilously close to falling 4.0 games back in the division. They haven't been that far back since May 5, and a sweep of the Rockies (powered by consecutive walk-off wins on Felipe Paulino) vaulted them back.... The Giants have lost the first game of their last ELEVEN series. So expect a loss tonight
Divisional Change: Lost two games in the division.
This Week: Final 3 games of a 4 game home series vs. Astros. 3 game home series vs. Cubs.
News: Hank Schulman asked Tim Lincecum about his approach to hitting:
"I try to swing out of my ass if I get the opportunity. Doesn't work out often...ever" - Tim Lincecum
Kevin Goldstein pointed out this week that Lincecum once struck out 18 on 146 pitches in a complete game shutout in college, one in which he struck out teammate Brandon Crawford three times.
A major motion picture that might feature Billy Crystal is filming a scene at the home park of the Giants' AAA team, the Fresno Grizzlies tomorrow.
On this day in 2010, the Giants were 6.5 games out of first place. We know now they roared back to take the division and World Series championship, but it all started with a 10 game losing streak by the Padres that started a year ago today. Probably can't count on that from Arizona.
AT&T Park is a beautiful baseball facility. I'll just never get over how it could be so expertly designed, only to completely forget to design a space for the bullpen. The result is that the makeshift pen is old-fashioned style, in the field of play down either foul line, right in front of the fans. Great for the home arms, not so great for the roadies. Recently, Chad Qualls claims he was spit on by a Giants fan while sitting in the bullpen.
Transactions: Recalled C Hector Sanchez from AAA Fresno (8/19).
Injuries: Placed LHP Jonathan Sanchez on the 15-day DL Tuesday retroactive to August 17 and activated OF Carlos Beltran from the 15-day DL. OF Nate Schierholtz is day-to-day with a fractured right foot from a foul ball. Placed C Eli Whiteside on the 15-day DL with a concussion on August 19. RHP Brian Wilson is out indefinitely but did play catch yesterday. It is unlikely Wilson will be activated when eligible Wednesday. LF Pat Burrell started a rehab assignment as a DH in High-A San Jose Wednesday - he could return in a week or two. RHP Sergio Romo threw off the mound Wednesday for the first time.
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EY Jr. and Casey Weathers
let’s do this!!
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
For Ethier, I mean....
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Aug 26, 2011 10:49 AM MDT up reply actions
Colleti wants a Vetern
Must throw in Wigginton
Colorado Offense: Making bad pitchers look like CY Young Winners.
by Colsportsfan on Aug 26, 2011 1:55 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
The Giants have lost the first game of their last ELEVEN series. So expect a loss tonight
I like the way you think, but the first game of the Gints current series was last night. And yes, they lost.
But there is nothing that says they can’t lose tonight anyway…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
It's the Astros?
That should be enough.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Aug 26, 2011 10:53 AM MDT up reply actions
I think the 'Stros have now taken 3 of 4 from the Giants this year
Of course the 2010 Rockies know that feeling.
by Northsider1964 on Aug 26, 2011 11:39 AM MDT up reply actions
It wasn't last night
don’t take my dreams away from me…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Aug 26, 2011 3:35 PM MDT up reply actions
ffff
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2011 11:10 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
In a weak moment this morning
I watched some ESPN baseball coverage. In their “NL West Race” segment, nearly all of their comments on the Dbacks were laid over B-roll of J.D. Drew and Brandon Allen at-bats.
Surprised there were no shots of Schilling or The Big Unit when they discussed the pitching staff.
by Northsider1964 on Aug 26, 2011 11:38 AM MDT reply actions
Ethier, Fowler and Cargo in the OF
DROOL
Prediction----> Cargo and Tulo will both have over 30 homers this year
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
No thank you.
Way to costly, and way to poor on the defense. I’d rather keep Seth (very similar production), or see what Blackmon can do. Don’t forget about Charlie!!
"My eyes! The goggles do nothing!" - Rainier Wolfcastle
by BittenAnkles on Aug 26, 2011 2:23 PM MDT up reply actions
and way to poor on the defense. I’d rather keep Seth
There is a certain, shall we say, disconnect between these two thoughts…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Aug 26, 2011 3:36 PM MDT up reply actions
Let me clarify
If the question is would you rather have player A or player B and their offensive and defensive production (or lack thereof) is similar, why not take the cheaper one. That is what I am saying. I do not see a disconnect.
"My eyes! The goggles do nothing!" - Rainier Wolfcastle
by BittenAnkles on Aug 26, 2011 3:53 PM MDT up reply actions
It was mostly just a joke about Seth's horrendous defense
I was going to disagree with you about Smith being just as productive, but looking at their splits this year, I am inclined to agree with you now…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Aug 26, 2011 4:37 PM MDT up reply actions
This may sound strange, but if I wanted any current Dodger position player right now...
It would probably be Loney. That guy has mashed at Coors ever since he came into the league. He plays pretty slick defense at 1st, and he can be rescued from the scrap heap come this winter. You could platoon him with Todd for all the non-Coors games.
"My eyes! The goggles do nothing!" - Rainier Wolfcastle
by BittenAnkles on Aug 26, 2011 2:26 PM MDT up reply actions
I'd actually be in favor of that
If we could get him pretty cheap. He’s still young and could be a pretty decent solution for when Todd is gone. Though his lack of ability to play other positions may make it hard to get him enough playing time in the meantime, since Todd should still have at least a couple hundred games left in him over the next two years. Especially if we’re also going to keep Giambi too.
Michael Cuddyer it is, then.
Alanna Rizzo is my dream girl.
by Cargo's Ball Sack5 on Aug 26, 2011 3:48 PM MDT up reply actions
lol ethier is hugely overrated
like the article says, his power is gone, and he’s a terrible defender to boot
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
When he is up, he is a very consistent bat
Smitty may have him, though.
by Real Perspective on Aug 26, 2011 2:45 PM MDT up reply actions
I'd rather we sell the farm (minus the two new guys)
for Kershaw.
or for Kemp
FFFFFFFFFFF.
/it is a new beginning, right?
by The Lodo Magic Man on Aug 26, 2011 2:46 PM MDT up reply actions
Can he play 3rd?
There’s no way I want him roaming CF in Coors as a Rockie. Maybe he can play a corner OF spot. But, even as big as his bat has been, I don’t see corner OF as enough a need that we would need to sell the farm for him.
The Giants Fan Spit thing was disheartening.
Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
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What in the hell is WRONG with college baseball coaches????!?!?!?!?!?!!?!
struck out 18 on 146 pitches in a complete game shutout in college
FFFFFFFFFFF.
/it is a new beginning, right?
by The Lodo Magic Man on Aug 26, 2011 2:47 PM MDT reply actions
pitch count is not the whole story
high-stress innings, fatigue, etc. lincecum is alleged to have thrown over 200 pitches in a college game.
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
If it took 146 pitches to get through a game
you weren’t pitching very effectively.
If you are trying to strike-out every batter you face, it can happen even if you are pitching well
See Peavy, Jake. You’ll notice that for a pitcher of such high acclaim, he has had very few outings that lasted into the 8th inning. I think for his entire tenure with the Padres he failed to pitch a complete game or he had one.
"My eyes! The goggles do nothing!" - Rainier Wolfcastle
by BittenAnkles on Aug 26, 2011 3:56 PM MDT up reply actions
ok I lied...
He has 9 complete games in 10 seasons, seven with the Pads.
"My eyes! The goggles do nothing!" - Rainier Wolfcastle
by BittenAnkles on Aug 26, 2011 3:58 PM MDT up reply actions
More than that
If you are thrwoing that many pitches, you are either getting into a lot of 2 or 3 ball counts, or you are allowing a lot of baserunners.
Think though
that College pitchers pitch once a week (Friday, Saturday or Sunday). I sometimes wish minor league pitchers would be allowed to throw more pitches to build up arm strength and durability to go deeper into the game so when the get to the ML level they don’t have to come out after 100 pitches because the manager can’t trust them to keep going.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
That'll never happen.
You don’t want to ruin a prospect’s arm in the minor leagues.
@CentralCaliRox
by CentralCaliRox on Aug 26, 2011 7:04 PM MDT up reply actions
Agree
but ruin and build up arm strength and expectations are different
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
Seriously, the 23-year-old lefty is having a ridiculous season and just might become the best pitcher of the 2006 draft class in the end.
hmmmm… someone else in the NL West with 2 Cy Youngs already might have something to say about that.
by you'vejustbeenCAINED on Aug 27, 2011 2:33 AM MDT reply actions
there is a reason I said "just might become"
Kershaw is doing amazing things at the age of 23. It is certainly conceivable he could win two Cy Youngs of his own in the next 15 years.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 27, 2011 9:37 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
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