Sunday Rockpile: Even after the Ubaldo trade, starting pitching remains in focus
by Rox Girl on Aug 28, 2011 8:45 AM MDT
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PrintOne of the symptoms of this disease we as Rockies fans have nicknamed "2011 Baseball Season Syndrome," is the absence of any sort of value from the fastballs of the team's starting pitching. According to FanGraphs, the Rockies rank 28 out of 30 in fastball value from the starting rotation this season, losing over 50 runs from average on the pitch, ahead only of the Royals and Orioles among major league teams. The Rockies most promising starter in this category in 2011 was Juan Nicasio, but unfortunately, his sudden neck injury, as well as the long expected rehab time of Jorge De La Rosa make it look like the club could still be needing starting help in 2012, even after trading one starter, Ubaldo Jimenez, for two potential rotation arms in Alex White and Drew Pomeranz.
So, while other needs exist around the diamond, Troy Renck states that improving the starting pitching must remain a priority for Dan O'Dowd and company in the offseason, and apparently, as this week's waiver claim of and attempt at a trade for Wandy Rodriguez indicates, the Rockies front office feels the same way. Not that Rodriguez would add much FB value to the team, the Astros rank just ahead of the Rockies at 27th in fastball value from starters, and Wandy's -7.2 value to the pitch is a big reason why. That said, Wandy's curve is his calling card, it ranks third among MLB starters this season behind only Justin Verlander and Roy Halladay, and third overall since 2008, behind Halladay and Adam Wainwright among the league's top benders.
Renck suggests that the Rockies will go after a starting pitcher through trade rather than free agency. He mentions the White Sox' John Danks as a possibility, but other starters that may be available this winter may include the Orioles' Jeremy Guthrie or any of a handful of Tampa Bay pitchers, as that club always seems to be dealing off a surplus. Should the Rockies wish to re-visit the Wandy Rodriguez talks, the Astros starter should also still be on the block.
As for the free agent crop, Renck reiterates Michael Cuddyer as the most promising target for the Rockies, and also writes highly of my second choice player to go after in the winter, the Cubs' Aramis Ramirez. Getting either Cuddyer or Ramirez would go a long way in solving a lot of the offensive issues this club has, getting both should come close to being a complete cure for them.
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I wonder how much of the fastball value thing is because of altitude
For years, conventional wisdom about hitting at altitude was “wait for a breaking ball, cuz curveballs don’t curve at Coors”. But it turns out to be full of crap. Curveballs work just fine, it’s fastballs that don’t work, especially if you rely on movement rather than location or velocity. It’s quite possible that the league reached a tipping point and realized that the right way to hit in Colorado is to sit on fastballs, which they have done to great effect (basically hitting as well as we have at Coors).
For whatever reason, we haven’t developed a lot of guys with plus breaking balls they can throw for strikes consistently. I think that’s what Ubaldo tried to do this year (and failed).
by BostonTransplant on Aug 28, 2011 8:57 AM MDT reply actions
I think this is part of it, but similar to the road w/l record, the years the Rockies have been most successful pitching
that fastball value is closer to zero. Saying that makes me wonder how much the two are related, if the FB value on the road helps the W/L record there.
It's a Sophie's Choice kind of situation
We either stock our teams with guys with live fastballs — and pitch well on the road — or rely on guys with velocity (Ubaldo pre 2011, NIcasio) or location (Betancourt, Street) and do better at home. Same with hitters. For the past couple years we’ve been filled to the gills with grip-and-rip fastball hitters, who have raked whenever opposing pitchers have thrown straight ones at Coors, but can’t handle the movement on the road.
To me, this is a solvable problem. For pitchers, as many have espoused over the years, we focus either on sinkerballers who have great command, or curveball/location pitchers like an Ian Kennedy (we don’t really have any on our staff right now). For hitters, we just learn to hit differently at home (hammer fastballs, fight off breaking balls) than on the road (fight off good moving fastballs and live to find a mistake). For that, we need smarter, more contact oriented, shorter-swinged hitters, of the type that won’t necessarily have great numbers in our fantastically hitter-friendly minor league stadiums. Oh, and we change our minor league stadiums (Colo Springs is absolutely killing us … let’s make Tulsa our AAA city).
by BostonTransplant on Aug 28, 2011 9:47 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think there could be a benefit to staying in CO Springs
it just needs to better mimic the MLB team. It would be beneficial to have an area where minor leagues or whoever can practice hitting in high altitude/non-high altitude home/road game situations.
As it currently stands, CO Springs is rather extreme though and it’s too easy to post nice batting lines with extreme home stats…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
The problem is the Rockies don't have enough groundball pitchers, and the defense is poor(ous)..
comparing to 2007, this team’s pitching is better in a lot of ways. The FIP is lower 4.19 (11), 4.52 (07) and the K% is higher 18%, 15.4% and the WHIP is nearly identical 1.37, 1.36.
The stat that stands out to me is the Home ERA is much higher in 2011 (4.62) than it was in 2007 (4.34). And there has already been more errors committed this season (73) than in 2007 (68) with 29 games left to play.
Just out of curiousity
why compare to 2007 and not 2010?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
but the dropoff in overall offense from 07 to 11 is much larger than 10 to 11
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
Contact-oriented hitters would have trouble in the Springs?
Would that explain Pacheco this year?
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
Contact oriented hitters can hit anywhere, high or low
And they can battle any pitcher, usually. That’s the point. But they rarely produce monster numbers, especially power numbers. So they get eclipsed by sexier players in high school stadiums like Colo Springs.
by BostonTransplant on Aug 28, 2011 1:16 PM MDT up reply actions
wade boggs couldn't hit for crap in oakland
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
JFK's Quote of the Day:
“All of the Mets road wins against the Dodgers this year occurred at Dodger Stadium.” ~Ralph Kiner
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
I VOTED
Prediction----> Cargo and Tulo will both have over 30 homers this year
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
by Roxman4ever on Aug 28, 2011 11:23 AM MDT up reply actions
Thanks for the link
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
OT: Watching the news coverage of the hurricane
and people never cease to amaze me with their stupidity. The waves are horrible and choppy and undertowy and some idiots are out trying to body surf it. /smh
"I think I speak for everyone in here when I say: It''s playoffs or bust"- Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Well that was a crappy end
I was sitting in my house watching the ballgame and I saw Belisle come in and I mentioned that Belisle could get a blown save if that was to happen. It promptly happened. I looked at my friends and said, OH BOY, here we go again. I just wish my birthday would’ve been better with a Rockies victory.
Prediction----> Cargo and Tulo will both have over 30 homers this year
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
David Price has 12 Ks
in 5 innings so far today. Ridiculous.
Alanna Rizzo is my dream girl.
by Cargo's Ball Sack5 on Aug 28, 2011 12:40 PM MDT reply actions
Wow. Another fan falls at Rangers Stadium from a stairwell
"I think I speak for everyone in here when I say: It''s playoffs or bust"- Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Is the LLWS still being played today?
"I think I speak for everyone in here when I say: It''s playoffs or bust"- Jason Hammel : Feared Slugger
BigGiantHead of the Ubaldo Lover's Club;OG Thugget Loyalist #4, QPU Emeritus, Proud member PR Gynocracy
Looks like it
Paleface Destro: The Resident Smartass of the Ubaldo Lovers Club
There are those who call me..."Skip".
I snark because I care.
by Paleface Destro on Aug 28, 2011 1:11 PM MDT up reply actions
Is there a lineup yet for today?
Prediction----> Cargo and Tulo will both have over 30 homers this year
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
Yep
8/28 Rockies at Dodgers:
Fowler – 8
Herrera – 4
Gonzalez – 9
Tulowitzki – 6
Smith – 7
Wigginton – 3
Kouzmanoff – 5
Alfonzo – 2
Chacin – 1
Paleface Destro: The Resident Smartass of the Ubaldo Lovers Club
There are those who call me..."Skip".
I snark because I care.
by Paleface Destro on Aug 28, 2011 1:14 PM MDT up reply actions
(h/t to Alanna Rizzo's FB page)
Paleface Destro: The Resident Smartass of the Ubaldo Lovers Club
There are those who call me..."Skip".
I snark because I care.
by Paleface Destro on Aug 28, 2011 1:15 PM MDT up reply actions
gotcha
Prediction----> Cargo and Tulo will both have over 30 homers this year
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
I see that CDI is getting screwed again
Prediction----> Cargo and Tulo will both have over 30 homers this year
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
called it on Friday
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
yessir you did.
Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 28, 2011 5:15 PM MDT up reply actions
The reasoning is that the stifling heat and length of game yesterday are to blame
Honestly, it makes sense this time
Paleface Destro: The Resident Smartass of the Ubaldo Lovers Club
There are those who call me..."Skip".
I snark because I care.
by Paleface Destro on Aug 28, 2011 1:16 PM MDT up reply actions
He still got screwed
Not necessarily by Tracy today, but by Belisle, and the weather, and Tracy trying to be the chessmaster earlier in the week.
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
Oh, no doubt
Paleface Destro: The Resident Smartass of the Ubaldo Lovers Club
There are those who call me..."Skip".
I snark because I care.
by Paleface Destro on Aug 28, 2011 1:21 PM MDT up reply actions
So why not start him Friday, Saturday, Alfonzo Sunday?
Not excused whatsoever.
Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
by Andrew Martin on Aug 28, 2011 5:16 PM MDT up reply actions
No Helton either
kind of weird, even considering yesterday’s game length
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
Time to start another Sunday loss streak.
And get swept in LA. Again.
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
WOW
Bautista leads the league in home runs, on-base percentage and walks. He has only 83 RBIs, an easily attacked number when comparing him with Boston’s Adrian Gonzalez and the Yankees’ Curtis Granderson. But Bautista has had just 83 at-bats with runners in scoring position, compared with 137 for Granderson and 155 for Gonzalez.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
Wow indeed
The Bautista story is one of the weirdest in the post PED era. I just don’t get it. And I also don’t get why that sort of thing doesn’t happen to our guys …
by BostonTransplant on Aug 28, 2011 1:17 PM MDT up reply actions
So he's basically averaging an RBI every time he gets up with RISP?
Whoa
Paleface Destro: The Resident Smartass of the Ubaldo Lovers Club
There are those who call me..."Skip".
I snark because I care.
by Paleface Destro on Aug 28, 2011 1:17 PM MDT up reply actions
Probably less, since his homers guarantee an RBI from a runner not in scoring position
Still, impressive.
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
Well, sure...I totally get that
But just on a superficial level, it makes you go “whoa”.
Paleface Destro: The Resident Smartass of the Ubaldo Lovers Club
There are those who call me..."Skip".
I snark because I care.
by Paleface Destro on Aug 28, 2011 1:24 PM MDT up reply actions
To compare to our middle three (w/RISP)
Carlos: 107 AB
Troy: 133 AB
Todd: 140 AB
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
<3 bautista
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
RG? I think the solution to Rockies pitching woes may be "Marshall " pitchers. Like Matzek.
We say Coors breaks down pitchers arms faster than normal. Marshall techniques are supposed to make your arm last longer. Marshall Pitcher’s use almost the full array of pitches we are used to only they arrive from slightly different angles. I have never seen anything that says Marshall pitchers can’t change speeds.
Changing speeds is the key to pitching every where when you can’t rely on movement. To miss bats we need to think high and low and fast and soft. IF we can develope pitchers that can use all four corners of the strike zone and expand like Maddux did and change speeds in multiples you can rely less on movement and traditional command. Be effectively wild by not letting the batter find a groove in speed and area.
The key is having multiple speeds like Reynoso and Bohannon; not nessaarily Twenty pitches with a different speed for each one. Those guys were effective inspite of their lousy “stuff”. I was a contact hitter who adjusted to what the pitcher showed me pitch to pitch and AB to AB. The pitchers that gave me the biggest problems were the ones who kept me in the " Wobbly Rocking Chair". Yeah if you catch a slow one you might be able to hit it a long way. The problem is catching one.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
by Oldfoagie on Aug 28, 2011 3:04 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Lotta stuff there
but to summarize my thoughts: I agree. I like the thought of just changing speeds rather than relying on natural movement, as that movement will betray you at Coors.
Purple Row - For all of your Colorado Rockies-related needs
Learn about Batting Metrics
Learn about Pitching Metrics
by Andrew Martin on Aug 28, 2011 5:17 PM MDT up reply actions
i love a good changeup
always my favorite pitch on MLB2k11 or the show
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
2012: get ready for White Pomz!
I was in Minny when Santana was in his prime
you would have loved to have seen that on a regular basis.
Fast and Faster
Slow and Slower
Good Idea and this works more than some people give it credit for.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
JFK
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