SB Nation Denver Editor's Pick
Top Pitching Prospects' Success Rates 2004-2006
by Muzia on Aug 3, 2011 11:33 PM MDT
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PrintRecently, there's been quite a bit of talk regarding what we can expect top pitching prospects to contribute at the major league level. Since these opinions are divided between "Alex White and Drew Pomeranz will be instant contributors in 2012" to "prospects always flame out and are risky", I decided to take a look at a decent sample size.
Using John Sickels' Top Pitching Prospects lists from 2004-2006, I have broken down the careers of the Top 25 arms in each individual year -- a total of 65 prospects.
(There are a few duplicates on these lists from year to year. For some reason, Merkin Valdez appears on all three lists. Who? Precisely.)
You can find the data here. Feel free to draw your own conclusions.
I wanted to answer a few questions with this data set. Are top prospects at a higher level more likely to succeed in the majors? What is the expected bWAR of all these players at the major league level? How likely is a pitcher to produce a contributing season (0.1-1.9 WAR), a high quality season (2.0-3.9 WAR), and an elite season (4.0+ WAR).
The average top prospect provided the following values during his career (including incomplete 2011 numbers)
527.12 innings pitched, with a career 6.25 WAR. This average prospect produced 2.62 contributing seasons, 1.97 high quality seasons, and 1.95 elite level seasons. But of course that doesn't tell you much, since the range of production is so varied. Let's dig deeper.
5 of 65 prospects never made the Major Leagues -- a burnout rate of 7.7%. It's a safe conclusion that if you make this list, you're going to be an MLB player.
21 of 65 prospects had a career WAR that equaled zero or lower -- a shocking 32.3% These include the flameouts from above along with pitchers that ended up being plain terrible longterm.
56 of 65 posted at least one contributing season -- a very solid 86.15%. (I'm well aware the difference between 0.1 WAR and 1.9 WAR, but I have to give the data set some limitations somehow.) 49 of 65 posted multiple seasons between 0.1 and 1.9 WAR, or 75.4%. If you're on one of these lists as a Top 25 arm, you have a very good chance of contributing at the major league level for multiple seasons.
29 of 65 prospects posted at least one high quality season -- or 44.6%. Again, quality seasons can be defined as a year where the pitcher was one of the best players on the team, and a guy you want on the mound. 22 of 65 produced multiple high quality season -- 33.8% of these prospects became regular quality starters.
18 of 65 produced at least one elite season of 4+ WAR -- 27.7% can be counted on as the ace of their staff. 10 of 65 pitchers (15.4%) produced multiple elite years and include some of the very best names in baseball: Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, Matt Cain, Jered Weaver, etc.
These numbers only increase when you limit the sample size to the Top 10 prospects from each year. (All of these candidates were in AA or above when these lists were created.)
On average, these Top 10 pitchers have thrown 693.2 IP so far, and with an average of 10.8 WAR per pitcher. This Top 10 average pitcher has 2.29 contributing seasons, 2.13 quality seasons, and 1.92 elite seasons on his resume.
17 of 30 have at least one 4+ WAR season, and 21 of 30 have at least one 2+ WAR season.
I know this is a TON of information, and the sample size isn't great. But here are some (likely inaccurate) conclusions we can draw.
If you're on one of these lists as a Top 25 pitcher, your future career breaks down as such (Alex White):
7.7% never make the Major Leagues.
32.3% make the majors, but fail to have an successful career (though the vast majority have a positive contribution in at least one season)
44.6% have at least one very good season -- with 33.8% becoming regular quality starters.
27.7% have at least one elite, All-Star caliber season and can be considered a Top of Rotation pitcher.
15.4% become one of the top pitchers in all of baseball. with multiple All-Star seasons.
If you're one of the Top 10 pitching prospects in all of baseball (Drew Pomeranz) :
33% have multiple All-Star level seasons.
63.33% become at the very least quality starting pitchers for multiple seasons, with at least one likely All-Star campaign.
76.67% contribute at the major league level for multiple seasons.
I'm not comfortable with the scope of this study, and I know it has some very glaring flaws, but overall the results are fairly surprising. It's not exhaustive, but it satisfied my curiosity.
Eat. Drink. Be Merry. But the above FanPost does not necessarily reflect the attitudes, opinions, or views of Purple Row's staff (unless, of course, it's written by the staff [and even then, it still might not]).
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I agree you would prefer much more than 3 years of data
But this is absolutely great stuff as is, giving a ballpark idea on what to expect other that “dual aces” or “prospects can flameout” arguments
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 3, 2011 4:24 PM MDT via mobile reply actions
Wasn’t Merkin Valdez the guy that gave up the Spilly Slam?
Low-cut blouses are looked down upon in this establishment.
Yes.
Just an average guy with exceptional hair. Nothing more, nothing less.
Bear Naked - My thoughts on sports, music, and life.
by Bryan Kilpatrick on Aug 3, 2011 8:28 PM MDT up reply actions
Very good work, Muzia!
After a quick look at the 2006 recap, even more encouraging is the fact that most of those that flamed out were due to injury, not performance. Obviously, injuries are a huge concern with any pitcher, but I’m not sure it’s any higher for Pomeranz or White than Jimenez. And if these guys stay healthy, the odds are very good they’ll be solid contributors, at the very least. Honestly, this is more encouraging than I thought it would be.
question
did you use fWAR or rWAR?
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
lets just use our 2012 money for something good and not another wigginton
bWAR is rWAR, which is what he used
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
I initially started using both, but settled on rWAR because it was more accessible. If someone wants to take up the mantle, be my guest!
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
why don't you just invent a new type
called gWAR?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
I dunno, it could be bloody...
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
exactly
mwahahaha
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
oh yeah i didn't see the "bWAR" up there early on
great post though
the only organization of humans responsible for more evil in the universe than the philadelphia phillies is the boston red sox
lets just use our 2012 money for something good and not another wigginton
This is fairly encouraging.
I was also skimming through BA’s top 100 prospects lists from the last decade, and in general, most top 25-50 prospects end up being at least regular ML players, most fairly good ones. However, it was a stark reminder of how bad of luck we’ve had with our own ‘top prospects’ the past several years.
The two guys we’ve had ranked in the top 10 since 2004, Ian Stewart and Franklin Morales, have both been colossal failures. Others to be ranked in the top 50 since then include Chris Nelson, Jeff Francis, Troy Tulowitzki, Jason Hirsh, Dexter Fowler, and Jhoulys Chacin. I guess overall, it hasn’t been too bad. Kind of just a microcosm of the overall list. Couple all-star players, most solid regulars, and a couple flame outs. *Jury is still out on Matzek and Friedrich…but it’s not looking too promising at the moment.
I think our lack of recent success drafting and developing top prospects (pitchers in particular) is what makes me a little nervous though. Hopefully the fact that we didn’t actually draft Pomeranz or White (like Cargo) will be enough to break up that cycle.
Alanna Rizzo is my dream girl.
by Cargo's Ball Sack5 on Aug 3, 2011 11:13 PM MDT reply actions
At first glance...
I think White will have more success at Coors Field than Pomeranz. Although I think both have the potential to be very, very good. Hopefully White = Cook (in his prime) at the very least, but I’m hoping White = Webb. He’s got a nasty sinking fastball!
"I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun."
very cool stuff dude
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
Outstanding post!!!
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 4, 2011 12:48 AM MDT reply actions
Excellent post. Needs more graphs.
I might do that if I have time. Maybe a scatter plot career WAR on one axis vs. best season on the other.
I would sum up the Top 25 numbers like this:
1/3rd Bust
1/3rd are Decent
1/3rd are Great
It looks like in the Top 10, 1/3rd would either bust or be borderline pitchers.
Obviously, the SSS issue causes complications. I would be interested in comparing injury rates of prospects vs. pitchers who’ve spent at least a year or two in the bigs: I have a hypothesis that it’s probably a little greater for prospects. In the subset of humanity who can throw a baseball and get paid for it, there’s probably a smaller subset of those who have the strength/flexibility/stamina to do it without getting hurt. The others will get hurt, and are more likely to flame out on the left side of the “bathtub curve,” which would include the whole prospect population. The no-longer-prospect career pitchers don’t get hurt until the right side of the “bathtub,” which is probably shallower and therefore not as high of a rate.
It’s late, and I’m probably not explaining it well. Anyway, good post.
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
by Yokel on Aug 4, 2011 2:29 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Breaking it out this way.
Pomeranz has a 1/3 chance to be better than Ubaldo, a 1/3 chance to be Ubaldo level, a 1/3 chance to be Mid to Bottom rotation, and a 1/4 chance to bust. White has a 1/3 chance to be Ubaldo, a 1/3 chance to be solid, and a 1/3 chance to bust. Here’s how it works out for me:
Jackpot – Ceilings for both – 1/9
Acceptable (A) – Pomeranz is a lateral move from Ubaldo, White reaches ceiling – 1/9
Acceptable (B) – Pomeranz reaches ceiling, White is a passable 2-3 pitcher – 1/9
Acceptable © – Pomeranz isn’t a bust, White reaches ceiling – 1/36
Okay (A) – Pomeranz ceiling, White bust – 1/9
Okay (B) – Pomeranz bust, White ceiling – 1/12
Dang (A) – Pomeranz lateral move, White bust – 1/9
Dang (B) – Pomeranz not a bust, White passable 2-3 pitcher – 1/36
Dang © – Pomeranz bust, White passable 2-3 pitcher – 1/12
Dang (D) – Pomeranz not a bust, White bust – 1/36
FFFFFF – Both bust – 1/12
So that’s basically a 1/3 chance (plus a little more) that this is a win. 55% of the time, this move is a decent move that doesn’t hurt the team. 1/4 of the time, the move isn’t a positive one. And one time out of 12, this is an absolute bust of a move.
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
So basically
Getting a positive outcome is a coin flip. Whether or not that risk is acceptable depends on how you view that 25%: Is that acceptable risk and the cost of doing business, but at least you get something, or is that a move that wasn’t worth getting rid of a valuable commodity?
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
This data doesn't quite mesh with our current situation.
The success rate for a top prospect who was on the brink of the Majors when making this list (White) is SUBSTANTIALLY higher than a player who was still floating in AA.
But our better prospect is the one in AA currently, and is looking to be a top 5 pitching prospect after this year. This data is an okay sample, but I would vouch that the success rates of especially White, but also Pomeranz, are higher than the data above suggests.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
This is key (and also why there's so much uncertainty with this trade)
The closer a player gets to the majors, the lower their chances of being a bust and the higher their chances of being a star become. White is already knocking on the major’s front door and Pomeranz is at worst, in the neighborhood. That makes me think that their odds of reaching their ceilings are even a little better than your data here suggests because the sample includes guys who are still miles away from getting into town.
I really believe that this data is a worst case scenario projection the more I look at it. It would be really interesting if we just took the guys on these lists who were at least in AA and crunched that data.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 4, 2011 8:23 AM MDT up reply actions
Although now I see in your comment below that these list were already upper level heavy.
I'm pretty disgusted right now!
by RhodeIslandRoxfan on Aug 4, 2011 8:25 AM MDT up reply actions
Define success rate
Does that mean White is more likely to reach his ceiling, or just less likely to bust?
Either way, the pessimistic view even breaks it down that there’s a slightly better than 50/50 chance that DOD improved the organization. I guess I’ll take House odds, if I have to.
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
Less likely to bust
I think White is far more likely to be a quality starter than the numbers above suggest simply because he’s already done the hard part — reaching the majors.
For him, the challenge will be staying healthy. If he’s moderately successful at that, he should be a quality starter for us for some time.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Also, developing secondary pitches, right?
Altar Boy in the Church of Santo Ubaldo
"...buffalo chicken is a fine anti-depressant, after all." -UZ
"... One order of buffalo wings, please..." -Yokel, after July 30, 2011
According to Sickels he has strong secondary pitches..
(White) has two strong secondary pitches: a plus splitter and an improving slider.
I appreciate this work, really good job.
I’d have liked to see you split the 0.1 to 1.9 bucket into a 0.1 to 1.9 and 1.0 to 1.9 buckets — simply because in my experience I’ve seen a pitcher’s September call-up numbers make up many 0.3 rWAR seasons. And obviously the sample is small, but that’s pretty understandable in this situation.
As far as our prospects go, this jives pretty well with my thoughts on White — about one third of the time he’ll become a decent starter, one quarter of the time he’ll be a good one. I’d say the “ace” potential outcome is somewhat lower than 10% at this point.
Pomeranz — this makes me feel a little better about his chances — 2/3 of the time he’s a useful player, 1/3 to 1/2 of the time he becomes that TOR guy. In total, I’d say that the chances of one of those two becoming that TOR guy hover around 40-60% — still would rather have Jimenez, but I do like the prospects and the potential for cheap goodness
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
One more thing...
I’d separate out guys who were seen at the time primarily as relievers from the study (like Huston Street) so that you can compare apples to apples. I know this is hard to do because a few guys (like Papelbon) were converted to the bullpen upon reaching the bigs or after making those lists, but I’m curious as to how that would change the numbers, if at all.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
I agree, and I initially wanted to do it that way
But honestly, if either White or Pomeranz end up in that sub 1.9 WAR bucket, it’ll be difficult to call this trade a success without substantial additions from Gardner or the emergence of a Jered Weaver-type pitcher.
We need both pitchers to end up in one of those two upper tiers, so I decided that splitting the “failure” tier even smaller would have little impact on this particular study.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Even though he wasn't a top 10 prospect, where would you rank Ubaldo's progress in this chart?
If you’re one of the Top 10 pitching prospects in all of baseball (Drew Pomeranz) :
a.) 33% have multiple All-Star level seasons.
b.) 63.33% become at the very least quality starting pitchers for multiple seasons, with at least one likely All-Star campaign.
c.) 76.67% contribute at the major league level for multiple seasons.
It appears to me he reached status B, but has not yet moved up to the vaunted level of multiple AS seasons. According to your figures, Pomeranz has a good shot at making this level Ubaldo was already at. Kind of a down and dirty comparison, but interesting to make.
Thanks for a great post!
Actual data is helpful, unsurprisingly
Dude with a Rockies lovin' 6-year-old
by BikeChess on Aug 4, 2011 7:32 AM MDT via mobile reply actions
Good stuff Muzia
I guess the worry with any pitching prospect is not that they’ll succeed, but if they’ll succeed as a starting pitcher. I believe every pitcher on that list, except for Broxton, was a SP in the minors until they came up to the big club including Zumaya. I’d consider it a disappointment if either player ended up in a relief role.
Saw Ryan Wagner's and Huston Street name
I know Ryan was drafted by Cincy in the first round as a closer so he too was a RP. That’s two more names….i should’ve took a deeper look before the original post.
in retrospect, I should have eliminated relief pitchers from the equation
but I was already uncomfortable with the sample size already, and didn’t want to limit the initial data.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
One other note
Sickel’s lists appear to be upper-level heavy. I had initially planned to compare upper level and lower level prospect success rates, but that wasn’t really possible with this data set.
The only true lower level success story on these lists would be Cole Hamels, who made the list in A+. His data was excluded from the Top 10 pitchers data set. Those averages and quality seasons would have been much higher with his inclusion, but that’s not what I was striving for with this specific experiment.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
Rereading Sickels list..
and he mentions how Ubaldo’s velo dropped while pitching in Asheville:
Jimenez took a huge step forward in 2003, posting a 10-6, 3.46 record for Asheville in the South Atlantic League, with a 138/67 K/BB ratio and just 129 hits allowed in 154 innings. His velocity actually went down slightly, to 89-93 MPH, but his breaking ball improved greatly and he showed more ability to pitch rather than throw. I gave him a strong Grade B in the 2004 book
The next season he suffered a fractured throwing shoulder blade. It wasn’t until after the injury that his velo picked back up, but then so did his wildness:
Promoted to Double-A Tulsa, he had serious command problems in the second half, posting a 5.34 ERA with a 53/31 K/BB in 63 innings, allowing 58 hits but with 12 homers given up. Interestingly, his velocity improved, hitting 96-98 MPH at times. The curveball, slider, and changeup continued to develop in terms of movement quality, but his command went backwards and scouts said he was often overthrowing.
Okay, I hate to throw this wrench out there...
But is this study really grading pitching prospects and their MLB chances, or is it grading John Sickels’ ability to identify pitching prospects?
I think this is fairly informative, but feel it’s still just a first step. I think you need to use Baseball America, Milb.com, and a couple of other respectable, independent prospect sources as well. It could be that Sickels has a particularly bad rate identifying pitchers.
It was meant to be a cursory explanation, as he said in the post
and far from complete or exhaustive.
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 4, 2011 8:57 AM MDT up reply actions
*exploration, not explanation
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by Andrew Martin on Aug 4, 2011 8:58 AM MDT up reply actions
at this point? More the latter than anything else
I wanted to do an experiment, and it turned out with some interesting results.
Like I say multiple times throughout, I am not completely happy with ANY element of this study. Its scope is limited, the chosen candidates already have a bias attached to them, and it’s by no means exhaustive.
If someone wants to take a stab at a much larger study, be my guest. I was simply trying to get a basic idea of how successful one of these lists are in projecting future success.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
But like I said above
his lists also happen to be upper level heavy, which goes along with my initial attempt at this data —determining how successful top arms in the upper levels fare versus lower level arms.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
get the lists
take the average rating for a pitcher across the n rankings and do it that way?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
it could work, if someone's willing to give it a shot
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
not it!
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
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