Thursday Rockpile: In which I read too much into the Brad Emaus trade, because I'm bored.
by Rox Girl on Jan 12, 2012 9:02 AM MST
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PrintCarlos Gonzalez anticipates being healthier in 2012 than 2011, and his off season workout program has been going well, according to the Denver Post.
The Rockies traded utility infielder Brad Emaus to the Red Sox for a PTBNL or most likely, cash. The Red Sox remain one of the handful of teams the Rockies seem to have the most consistent trade relations with. I had been wondering if that would change with Theo Epstein moving to Chicago, but if this minor deal and Aaron Cook's Red Sox signing are any indication, that might not necessarily be the case. Emaus' departure has the most direct impact on Chris Nelson and D.J. LeMahieu, who figure to fight for the MLB second base job, but optimistically, it could also mean that the Rockies are clearing space on the Colorado Springs roster for one of those two in anticipation of another move, or maybe that they are clearing a path of ascension for Josh Rutledge. Pessimistically, and probably more likely, it could just mean that the organization felt Brendan Harris is a more worthy keeper than Emaus, but I don't really want to consider that option for the time being.
Rutledge's 2011 emergence as a legitimate starting 2B prospect makes the Emaus and Russell Wilson departures more palatable, given the team's utter vacuum at the position Rockies fans should normally be more aghast at losing two potential hopes for the future. 2B remains the one great mystery for the team going forward, which I guess would be a good way to segue into a continuation of Sunday's discussion of the team's plan this off season. After the jump, I'll discuss how subsequent off season developments have revealed that the Rockies see a lineup that includes both Michael Cuddyer and Tim Wheeler in 2014.
As I mentioned on Sunday, the Rockies plan in a nutshell this off-season has been to shed the baggage of internal development disappointment and to replace those cast off parts with veteran stop-gaps as they await the next wave. Casey Blake and Ramon Hernandez were signed to relatively small risk and small cost contracts and have clear replacement options at their positions on the way.
The Michael Cuddyer signing defies this prototype as he was signed for the kind of money that makes him a key figure in the Rockies plans for the next three seasons. As was the case with third and catcher, however, there are internal options for replacing him in right field approaching soon, Tim Wheeler should be ready to see MLB time this upcoming season and Kent Matthes might as well. Charlie Blackmon should start the season with the Rockies as a back-up and could conceivably also play his way into a starting role. At first, I thought the Cuddyer signing was a showing of a lack of confidence in any of those three internal options, but the team's actions since have proven quite the opposite of that. The Rockies have been unwilling to deal any of the three this winter, particularly Wheeler, who is of interest to several other teams.
Additionally, the failed Martin Prado negotiations are an indication to me that Seth Smith's availability is more about Wheeler being seen as closer to ready for a full time role in the organization than I had previously realized, as the Rockies insistence of hanging on to Wheeler would almost have to put him in the same boat as Nolan Arenado or Wilin Rosario. Dan O'Dowd has shown a willingness to talk about young position players projected as reserves (see the Eric Young Jr. rumors or yesterday's trade of Brad Emaus) but won't give up projected starters. That Wheeler's essentially been taken off the table in trades for other projected starting position players such as Prado shows that the organization sees him in the latter category.
This indicates to me that Cuddyer's future with Colorado will likely see him spending more time at first base in the 2013 and 2014 seasons. He has been signed as the temporary successor to Smith in right as Rockies fans await the coming of Tim Wheeler, and then eventually to be the temporary successor to Todd Helton in 2013 and/or 2014 as we await the readiness of Matthes or perhaps Kyle Parker.
In prioritizing this right now, the Rockies did leave openings in the rotation and at second base that they hope to fill by trading Smith. The Rockies are making a variety of interesting and fairly significant bets on Cuddyer:
- That his full time RF value added to whatever Smith brings back in trade will provide more bang for the buck for the Rockies than a Smith/RH platoon plus whatever FA pitcher or 2B they could have signed with the leftover money would in 2012
- That he'll be a better internal 1B replacement option in 2013 and 2014 than converting Smith would have been.
- That Cuddyer's sub-par production in 2010 and 2008 were from more anomalous injuries than the lingering problems that afflict Josh Willingham and Carlos Beltran.
In each above case, there's a bet against circumstantial statistical evidence otherwise, so the Rockies are taking a healthy amount of risk on internal opinion. That said, should the team be right about Cuddyer, the current projected 2014 lineup is intriguing to me:
- CF: Fowler
- 3B: Arenado
- LF: Gonzalez
- SS: Tulowitzki
- RF: Wheeler
- 1B: Cuddyer
- C: Rosario
- 2B: Rutledge
Cuddyer would be the oldest player in the lineup at 35, Arenado the youngest at 23. Everybody else would be in their late 20's primes between 25-29 years old. The Rockies winter has set them up to be marginally NL West competitive in the next two seasons, moreso in 2013, but legitimately World Series competitive by 2014. The team needs to hit on two, perhaps three of the Arenado/Rutledge/Wheeler/Rosario group, and they don't really seem to have plan B's in place for Arenado or Rosario as far as I can tell (Matthes/Blackmon and DJLM are the apparent plan B's for Wheeler and Rutledge, respectively) but they've laid some solid groundwork here.
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Good stuff.
But, umm, this confused me until I figured it out.
Carlos Gonzalez anticipates being healthier in20112012 than20102011, and his off season workout program has been going well, according to the Denver Post.
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I can’t take another 2011. I just can’t.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 9:12 AM MST up reply actions
thanks, I'll fix that...
Or maybe I’m just planning on a Groundhog Day scenario unfolding here and that maybe I died a year ago and this is my personal hell.
I see you're having a swell morning.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 9:15 AM MST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
The rain always gets me down...
but actually the morning hasn’t been too bad. The comment was probably just a reflection of the general direction my writing’s been going.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjFoQxjgbrs&ob=av2n
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 9:27 AM MST up reply actions
I liked them.
Of course, they also opened the worst concert I ever went to, but I liked the first album.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 9:31 AM MST up reply actions
It's a long story on why the concert was bad.
The whole night was bad really.
But it was Garbage opening for Smashing Pumpkins. I was a hipster and didn’t go to big arena concerts, but I went to this one. Terrible.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 9:42 AM MST up reply actions
Doesn't seem like they'd hold up well in an arena setting
I once saw Jimmy Eat World performing in a courtyard at GWU while walking around DC. It was open air, surrounded by three buildings, and the acoustics (or lack of) made for the worst sounds I’ve ever heard.
It didn’t help that I didn’t really like Smashing Pumpkins. Garbage only played about five songs.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 9:50 AM MST up reply actions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHcyJPTTn9w
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
I got that impression from Twitter
nothing wrong with it though
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 9:37 AM MST via Android app up reply actions
I think you're right.
I actually like it better now than I did when it first came out.
The off-season sucks.
That is all.
As a sleeper for the Rosario "Plan B"
keep an eye on Bryce Massanari. He’ll be 28 years old in 2014, and I’ve had a couple of different sources tout him as a legitimate potential MLB player despite his well advanced age for his level. He and Asheville teammate Dustin Garneau would be my second two guesses after “free agent signing” should Rosario prove a bust.
If Arenado trips, the Rockies are less prepared internally. Let’s hope that Sam Mendes can make a fast climb through the system.
Mike Newman also was pleasantly surprised when he saw Massanari
and said that he had something to dream on, got just age-related bullying.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 9:15 AM MST via Android app up reply actions
Massanari was one the Rox minor leaguers that caught my interest, too.
Question for RoxGirl, Greg (or others in the know): Does Massanari spend next year in A+, or do they skip him directly up to AA because of his age (either to open season, or targeted for early promotion right out of the gate)?
Just a small town kid who thinks Coors Field on a sunny summer Saturday night is the best place to be on this or any other plane of existence. When a late-inning Todd Helton go-ahead homerun is added to this scenario, my brain melts.
I think Modesto would still be the safest bet, given the Rockies recently re-signed Jose Gonzalez.
However, there are several factors that make Tulsa more likely than it typically would have been. Weinstein getting promoted to Colorado, Massanari’s age and high level of effectiveness at Asheville and this organizational need for a back-up plan to Rosario. Gonzalez does seem to be more of an organizational filler type rather than a legit prospect, so I definitely could see him getting sent back to the Nuts with Garneau and Massanari skipped ahead.
err... that last sentence was not clear at all...
Garneu would be sent to Modesto with Gonzalez, not Tulsa with Massanari. I see very little likelihood that Garneau skips a level, but a considerably higher one for Massanari.
I also wonder if they'll be trying to fit Massanari more directly into a first base role rather than splitting time at catcher.
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"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates
~WolfMarauder
by Greg Stanwood on Jan 12, 2012 12:11 PM MST up reply actions
If anything, I'd actually see it happening the other way around,
Garneau to first as Massanari’s supposedly really good in most defensive catching facets, but the reality is that the Rockies always set up split time situations with their minor league catchers, so I don’t know if that’s going to change even with a shake-up of the player development staff.
Probably just an idea that appeared out of the logjamp of catchers...
… but I guess we won’t really see how that goes until we know who makes it through Spring Training without being released. Massanari. Regarding Garneau, he hasn’t played at 1B professionally yet. Does he have a history there or does he simply profile better there than Massanari?
RockiesRoster.com - Your best source for organizational contract and transactions information.
"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates
~WolfMarauder
by Greg Stanwood on Jan 12, 2012 12:25 PM MST up reply actions
It's more that Massanari profiles better behind the plate right now.
The Rockies aren’t likely to move him off of catcher at all anytime soon, so if they were to move either of the pair, it would be Garneau. Again though, it’s most likely that they move neither and just live with the logjam as they always do. Rosario’s always been paired with a Lars Davis or Jose Gonzalez, Chris Iannetta was always paired with Alvin Colina or Rick Guarno. The Rockies have always had half time catchers in the minors to save their knees and give more support to the pitching development staff.
The projected 2014 lineup is good offensively
but also very stout defensively. Nice side effect of the plan.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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in the outfield, especially
arenado: it's Rockie for future
OT: How many work labor dollars are lost to Purple Row?
On weekends and evenings the comments on Purple Row are minimal but during regular business hours this sight explodes. Just an observation that I thought was funny.
So many of us work 48 hours per weekend
Are you reading this, boss?
2012 has to be a better year. Doesn't it?
My job just got wifi fixed this semester. Woot!
I'M SORRY I WAS EVER MAD AT YOU, ROCKIES! COME BACK TO ME! I LOVE YOU!!
by prettyinpurple on Jan 12, 2012 11:57 AM MST up reply actions
It could also have to do with the publishing schedule
People come here in the morning for Rockies news and want to discuss it while it’s still new; by evening most questions have been resolved and little new news is posted to the site.
When new news does get posted in the evening, it still attracts a lot of comments.
Also, I’ve spent innumerable hours of work time on here, but I’d say it only rarely affects my productivity. Unless you’re engaged in a flame war about whether Steinbrenner was an innovator or just a good businessman, commenting doesn’t require full time attention.
When I'm not at work on my multishift schedule...
I try to supplement my pay and pay off my debt from projects at home. PR gives me a chance to step back for a moment and look at things afresh; clear the cobwebs and see a bigger picture.I’d say it enhances my productivity when I’ve frustrated my self trying to keep too short a focus.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
This
I like to think of PR like a modern-day smoke break – on busy days I’ll usually just lurk… some days I probably get a little out of hand, especially when work is slow.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 12:15 PM MST up reply actions
Exactly, and especially if you work for an organization that still allocates two 15 minute breaks
but just removed the ‘smoking’ between the last two words.
Lol
I was trying to make a reference to PR’s more addicting qualities :-)
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 12:21 PM MST up reply actions
I'm salaried...
And the work has to get done, so I don’t consider my employer to be losing any money. Posting here and elsewhere keeps me happy and productive, and my stuff gets done. Win-win in my personal case.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
But salaried with overtime or comp-time
or just salaried? I have been variations of the former in my professional life, and sometimes feel bad if I think blog perusal and commenting has pushed a deadline project into overtime.
I had to get off of the site during work hours lest I lose my jorb
I’m mobile and on a break right now.
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 12, 2012 4:23 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
I read the article
and that is all during work hours
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
Because of that possibility, the only time I'm able to comment is after work hours.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
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Eschew Obfuscation!
God, I hope Rosario becomes at least CDI
In other news, a friend tweeted a link to this tune, and I think it perfectly sums up how I feel about Purple Row:
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
It's more like this for me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdVrwFbHyeA
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 9:54 AM MST up reply actions
I was going to post an alternative suggestion
But I don’t think simply typing “NSFW” would have satisfied the mods. If you’re intrigued, search Youtube for Bobby Peru.
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
Well if we are dedicating songs to the PR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_-qRcHAhzk
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
Mine...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3L4spg8vyo
Just a small town kid who thinks Coors Field on a sunny summer Saturday night is the best place to be on this or any other plane of existence. When a late-inning Todd Helton go-ahead homerun is added to this scenario, my brain melts.
by Gasstation1 on Jan 12, 2012 10:29 AM MST up reply actions
RG; I've always felt Cuddyer's was going to play more 1b than RF over the course of the contract.
I’ve also felt a lot of the desire to part with Smith is the FO sees no upside left and thinks they have potentially better in Blackmon and Wheeler.
If Nolan is the salvationfor the pit of wonders at 3b, and Rutledge our rescue from the circle of terror at 2b; Cuddyer is our ear plugs to the great sucking sound of the Todd fade out at 1b.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
cuddyer only needs 1 ear plug, but most of us need 2
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Jan 12, 2012 10:14 AM MST up reply actions
That’s not cool.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 10:19 AM MST up reply actions
Dude's deaf, dude
It wasn’t an insult or a mockery. Just a not very funny joke :)
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
I wonder how that would effect one's swing, if at all
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 12, 2012 4:24 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
he seems to do fine with it
arenado: it's Rockie for future
I just wonder if he'd be even better or something
nothing concrete, just a vague what if
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 12, 2012 5:16 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
i don't think it would have much effect
it’s his right ear, and he hits right handed. if anything, it might be a boon, block out stuff behind him.
arenado: it's Rockie for future
I played HS ball
with a catcher who was deaf (had hearing aids but didn’t help too much). He was pretty good.
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
Gallaudet Baseball
has a very strong tradition.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 6:16 PM MST up reply actions
Not a winning one,
but a long tradition of playing ball as old as the school.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 6:18 PM MST up reply actions
What? Thought this kind of went along with what was being said.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOeZtJuiLUU&feature=related
37 today, 36 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 10 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
wasn’t a joke, just stating the facts
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Jan 13, 2012 6:44 AM MST up reply actions
You bring up an interesting point
in regards to Smith. All signs show that the FO is thinking big, and building their future around those with the highest perceived upside. Wheeler is in no way a sure-thing, with a lower floor than Smith, but his upside (power and speed) outshines Smith. This philosophy makes a lot of sense to me in a league where average ballplayers are replacable, so why not go all out for the players who can be, dare I say, “special.”
Caution: Special is morphing into excremental conotations around here.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
SBNation Article on Top 10 AAAA hitters
Former Rockie Josh Fields comes in at #9
9) Josh Fields, age 29: once a top 3B prospect of the White Sox, Fields might have a bit too much MLB success to qualify here, as he hit 23 HR for the Sox in 2007. He hit poorly after that and bounced from the Royals to the Rockies, where he hit .303/.361/.537 for their Triple-A squad at Colorado Springs in 2011. Perhaps playing in the thin air of Denver would help him; he can play first base, third base and the outfield. He’ll be in spring camp with the Dodgers this year.
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
It is
here.
"Surgeons have determined that doing the wave will, yes, will cause tears to the suprapinatus muscle and the infraspinatus muscle from the throwing of an individual's arms rapidly into the air. In addition, any children doing the wave will be sold to the circus. Do NOT do the wave in the ballpark. Doing the wave is safe at pro football games and Miley Cyrus concerts.
-scoreboard announcement at Ranger Ballpark in Arlington via Baseball Nation.
I'm a little surprised Dan Johnson isn't on that list
He typically blisters AAA pitching, but his MLB highlights are limited to a couple of huge late-season HRs for the Rays.
by Northsider1964 on Jan 12, 2012 10:44 AM MST up reply actions
he makes me sad
I went to school with his girlfriend.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 11:58 AM MST via Android app up reply actions
only partly
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 12:49 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Dan Johnson?
Dan. Johnson.
arenado: it's Rockie for future
writer DQ'd him because of MLB ABs
I guess his definition is not a player who torches AAA and is worthless in MLB, but rather a guy who torches AAA and hasn’t had much of an MLB shot
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 4:14 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Not gonna lie
In my mind I read that as “writer Dairy Queened him because of MLB ABs”
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 4:15 PM MST up reply actions
Busterbar'd...
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 12, 2012 4:31 PM MST up reply actions
his 2010 especially is very interesting
.198/.343/.414, .188 BABIP, 114 wRC+
arenado: it's Rockie for future
The incrediable shrinking GM?
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
A series of unfortunate events?
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 12, 2012 10:29 AM MST up reply actions
They Shoot Horses, Don't They?
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 10:38 AM MST up reply actions
maybe
probably had the highest floor among our 2B pool
arenado: it's Rockie for future
@jonheyman
vogelsong contract: 3M in ’12, 5M in ’13, 6.5M club option in ’14 w 300K buyout. $8.3M total.
Decent gamble that 2011 wasn’t a fluke, but not really too much to complain about here for Giants fans.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
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They're Giants Fans !
They complain about everyting!
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
To be fair
We kind of do too.
Die-hard Rockies fan since 1993.
Poo-Bah of the San Diego Padres in the Purple Row OOTP League.
@Paul_Franz
My blerg
I don't think we are quite as libilous as they are.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
Oh certainly
Our disapproval is more refined. :)
Die-hard Rockies fan since 1993.
Poo-Bah of the San Diego Padres in the Purple Row OOTP League.
@Paul_Franz
My blerg
I hope Vogelsong turns back into a pumpkin
But pitching in a middle-of-the-plate-friendly ballpark seems to have revived his career. That’s probably a smart investment on the Giants’ part.
by Northsider1964 on Jan 12, 2012 10:48 AM MST up reply actions
Should it be in his contract he only gets to wear the great pumkin jersey?
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
Vogelsong signing an extension but Lincecum shutting down similar talks might make them a bit nervous, I suppose.
Their rotation in 2014 could feature:
Cain
Bumgarner
Vogelsong
Eric Surkamp
and Barry Zito
I think in the spirit of righteous propaganda, I’m going to tell my Giants fan acquaintances that this is exactly what this signing means.
by Rox Girl on Jan 12, 2012 11:14 AM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Don’t worry, their next wave of talent should be ready on the farm by then.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
Proud GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds!
SB Nation Denver | On Twitter | Random Music Writings
yeah, Zack Wheeler should be ready by 2014
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 11:30 AM MST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not sure if I see that this time around,
their A level pitching in 2011 was really far behind where it’s been in recent years and they only have a couple of notable position players coming through. Their system took a pretty sizable step backwards last year, especially considering the other four systems had some promising developments at that level. The draft and foreign free agency changes are going to have a relatively large impact on their player procurement approach relative to the rest of the division as well as they rely heavily on their first round picks and Latin bonus babies working out. If the smaller market teams aren’t as afraid to draft the Buster Posey’s of the future, it’s going to hurt a team like SF.
I think he may have been sarcastic there,
but I’m never really sure.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 11:34 AM MST up reply actions
Bingo.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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Yeah, I missed that. Thank you INTERNET, you always surprise me, what with the sarcasm and what not.
It’s still probably good to point out to people where the division stands as far as farm systems. I’m not sure if everybody knows that or not.
Yes.
You are amazing with the ability to give incredibly informative response to some guy being a smart ass.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 11:42 AM MST up reply actions
I could definitely do more of this in NL West Reports
but I haven’t felt informed enough to do so. I haven’t gotten perspective of each of the teams at any deep level until the last year or so.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 11:51 AM MST via Android app up reply actions
that was supposed to specify the other four systems in the division had promising A level developments...
The Rockies had Arenado, Rutledge and Bettis and a couple others, the Padres had Spangenburg, Liriano and Keyvius Sampson, the D-backs Adam Eaton and a host of pitchers break out, and the Dodgers had Webster and Angelo Songco plus a couple more.
SF’s the weakest farm in the division right now.
OOTP says I (aka the Giants) have only 3 pitching prospects
And one of them is Chad Bettis.
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
and one of them (Wheeler) is no longer in the Giants system
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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i love describing things as "a host"
sounds like arizona is preparing a massive army of pitchers, not just to win the division, but secede from the union and form their own country
arenado: it's Rockie for future
i don't think cain will be there
new york is going to toss sabathia money at him and hamels next offseason, and see who bites
arenado: it's Rockie for future
Dude Matt Cain has a losing W-L record, no way he deserves Sabathia money
…
PRMLB - Tampa Bay Rays
matt cain could go undefeated with the yankees offense behind him
arenado: it's Rockie for future
and my fantasy teams will love it
arenado: it's Rockie for future
Late posting today
(that awful w-o-r-k gets in the way)
but I’m going to keep reminding everyone (whether they like it or not, and despite the likely negative comments I’ll provoke) that the Rockies have a minor league 2B who’s done quite well — particularly in OBP and power stats for a 2B — for the past several years. He’s excellent defensively and would only cost MLB minimum to play the position.
He did pretty well in an emergency call-up in Sept. while playing at a position (SS) that wasn’t his usual position in the minors.
Tommy Field is his name. No, he’s not an early round draft pick. No, he hasn’t been high on regular posters’ or mods’ PURP lists. Yes, he probably has a limited ceiling (but that might still put him above Rockies’ 2Bs historicially). All he’s done is work his butt off in the minors & exceed expectations. Why Chris Nelson at this point would get a prior shot at the 2B job I don’t know. Well, yes I do. That no. 1 pick status stays with a player forever, or almost forever (see Weathers, Casey & Reynolds, Greg). It means more than consistent minor league performance, evidently.
Maybe Emaus got moved so Field could get enough PT in the Springs. Maybe not, but I don’t think he should be ignored.
2012 has to be a better year. Doesn't it?
by maris61 on Jan 12, 2012 11:41 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
I'm a big Field fan, and I'm glad somebody brought him up. I just don't want to jinx him like I do every other 2B I like.
For purposes of the later part of this post, he’s not the type of player an organization will plan around until he’s actually proving himself at the MLB level. I like his chances for this given that he has proven himself at every step thus far. I think Jim Tracy might see him as not aggressive enough at the plate given the way that patient approaches like his have been shipped out this winter. He does figure to get more PT at Colorado Springs without Emaus, though.
Thanks
To me, clearing out Emaus made sense to open PT for Field.
If I’m a GM for a team that has had a decade-plus of suck at 2B and I’ve got a minor leaguer who’s had a .397 OBP with .863 OPS (15 HR) in High A ball, then a .357 OBP with a .795 OPS (17 HR) in AA, plus a respectable MLB showing as an emergency Sept. call-up, I’d make sure he gets enough AAA playing time to make a decision on MLB-readiness.
Especially with a suddenly red-hot younger prospect (Rutledge) right behind him. If nothing else, continued good numbers in AAA might give Field some trade value.
2012 has to be a better year. Doesn't it?
Field certainly deserves a shot
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 12, 2012 4:26 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Spring Training Clock
I see that the Pitchers and Catchers report on Feb 20. Is there anyway to get a count down at the top of the page???
TGFPR!!
by jlot10 on Jan 12, 2012 11:53 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
Wow, ~40 days away.
Cool.
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 12, 2012 11:57 AM MST up reply actions
40 days in the wilderness
This off-season is moving s-l-o-w-l-y.
We need a catcher war or something.
2012 has to be a better year. Doesn't it?
It's been moving slowly for the past 2 weeks, or so.
Last year, we had the CarGo and Tulo extensions… I mean this offseason there have been plenty of trades, but many minor ones. I’m still waiting for one more trade..
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 12, 2012 12:04 PM MST up reply actions
I think it's been incredibly quick
But then I’m 37 and I am plummeting toward my expiration.
I was reading that some players report to the facility in mid January. It’s mid January now!!
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
RockiesFest has to do with that, I'm sure.
Which is coming up in ~10 days.
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 12, 2012 2:19 PM MST up reply actions
it does seem like it's been a fast offseason
prince fielder still hasn’t signed, to boot
arenado: it's Rockie for future
Be patient and still my aching heart
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
Sorry about the length of the link but here you go.
38 today, 37 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 10 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
I had to update my sign anyways.
37 today, 36 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 10 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
email me a reminder, I'll look into it
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 12, 2012 5:17 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
In minor league news, the Rockies release five players last week.
Jeff Squier, Erik Wetzel, Dom Altobelli, Alan DeRatt and Rhett Ballard.
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"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates
~WolfMarauder
sounds like an IT Department
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Jan 12, 2012 12:17 PM MST up reply actions 2 recs
Or a law firm.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
Sounds like Spilly Spawn to me.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
I thought DeRatt was the ultimate EX's name! :-\
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
Another favorite law firm name was Kant , Lever, Mead.
"Why are they outlawin' the spit pitch? The curveball is a cheap 'n easy pitch; the spitter aint" Ty Cobb
"When I was pitching 90's in the seventies; I never thought I'd be pitching 70's in the nineties!" Frank Tanana
ur NPR is showing
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by El Paso Jeff on Jan 12, 2012 12:40 PM MST up reply actions
I believe in this case it's his
NP-AH
Die-hard Rockies fan since 1993.
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My blerg
I laughed at this pretty good
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 12, 2012 5:18 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.
Alan DeRatt looks like a familiar name for some reason.
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 12, 2012 12:20 PM MST up reply actions
UNC Asheville guy, so he was sort of a hometown hero for the Tourists.
He’d get a bit more press coverage from the Citizen Times than his status probably merited, and we might have picked up on some of that here.
He bounced around a lot last year.
He spend time with Asheville, Modeato and Tulsa in 2011, so I mentioned him a lot on the site’s transaction’s notes.
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by Greg Stanwood on Jan 12, 2012 12:26 PM MST up reply actions
Modesto*
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"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates
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by Greg Stanwood on Jan 12, 2012 12:30 PM MST up reply actions
So we can't trade those guys for Halladay?
/offseason plan ruined…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 12, 2012 1:06 PM MST up reply actions
Sad - I was following Altobelli
Simply because he shared a surname with the scorer of the 3rd goal in Italy’s triumphant World Cup win in 1982. Forza Italia!
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
83 ish days til opening day?
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
Hey, since we're doing an OOTP league already
Are we also doing a PR fantasy league?
Die-hard Rockies fan since 1993.
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My blerg
Hey everyone!
This article mentions baseball once. You should go to SB Nation Denver to read it!
Filling up your senses like a night in the forest since 1992.
by frightened inmate #2 on Jan 12, 2012 1:45 PM MST reply actions
Great job as always!
I can find no fault with any of these ideas. Like you, the NBA is a distant fourth in my interest (but still ahead of MLS!!).
"Surgeons have determined that doing the wave will, yes, will cause tears to the suprapinatus muscle and the infraspinatus muscle from the throwing of an individual's arms rapidly into the air. In addition, any children doing the wave will be sold to the circus. Do NOT do the wave in the ballpark. Doing the wave is safe at pro football games and Miley Cyrus concerts.
-scoreboard announcement at Ranger Ballpark in Arlington via Baseball Nation.
Kyle Parker scouting report at Fangraphs
a little light on faith, but not surprising to me. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/rockies-baseball-prospect-kyle-parker-debu/
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by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 1:49 PM MST via Android app reply actions
Damn.
Very powerful swing.
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 12, 2012 2:19 PM MST up reply actions
The little aside about Matthes should probably be taken with a grain of salt.
We’re all somewhat blind to later development in minor league players if we have a negative first impression. I think Newman’s projecting more Cal League magic in Matthes’ 2011 than a step forward taken by the OF, when the latter is more likely true. Modesto plays as a weaker hitting park for Rockies minor leaguers than Asheville.
I absolutely agree
Newman wrote last year that Matthes was a non prospect, one with “beach muscles.” It’s kind of hard to get a fair look at a guy who isn’t healthy though
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 2:41 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
and who wouldn't want beach muscles?
arenado: it's Rockie for future
Y'all need to put your prejudices aside, and think out of the box
….and put EY Jr in at 2B and leadoff, with Fowler batting second.
OK, so he will be average in range and in error rate in the field. So was his father.
In the meantime, did you see the problems he creates when he gets on base? Even with a .320 OBP, he will create havoc or at least a distraction. If he doesn’t get on base, then Fowler is up next.
When considering lineup purposes, this is the best option for the Rox.
young absolutely has elite speed
but we have been waiting for him to add any other tool. that tool alone isn’t enough. There aren’t any prejudices against him among Rox fans. if anything, he gets more love than he deserves because we want him to succeed due to his father. No other 2B possibility has any tool as good as Young’s speed, he just doesn’t have anything else. calling him “average” on defense is pretty kind to him. I wouldnt cry if they started him, but he’s hardly the obvious choice
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 2:45 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Agree, I would love for EY to break out
But he’s going to have to improve in every phase of the game, especially on defense.
If he can boost his OBP, the SLG portion of his OPS is irrelevent. Every time EY reaches first, it’s almost as good as an extra-base hit. But you’d still like to see that OBP up around .350 if he’s going to be at the top of the order.
Defensively, he needs to go for less flash and make himself into a David Ekstein-like fielder. Surround every ball and be fundamentally perfect, because it will help compensate for his medicre hands and his atrociously weak arm.
There’s still hope there for sure, but he needs to show progress in a hurry.
by Northsider1964 on Jan 12, 2012 3:17 PM MST up reply actions
This
If he uses his speed to get in front of/knock the ball down instead of trying to use his glove all the time, I think his defense will pick up.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 3:35 PM MST up reply actions
I think we are all too hard on EY Jr
Is he as good as fielder as Herrera, Nelson, or any other reasonable prospect. NO.
That is not the issue. THE ISSUE IS: Is EY Jr average fielding enough so that he can play the first seven innings of each game because he will create havoc on the basebaths.
Yes, will there be an extra error here and there. But remember the other side of the ledger…when EY stretches on OF single to him standing on 3B instead of 2B, or a double into a run as he flies past home. And I haven’t even mentioned him dancing off 1B as the pitcher tries to concentrate on pitching to Fowler. None of the other 2B prospects provide any hope of such an offensive contribution, even batting ij positions 6-8.
So…I think the PURPLE ROW and TRACY should stop writing off EY Jr and seriously consider what he looks like batting leadoff and how that makes the rest of the lineup better.
As long as he carries at least a .350 OBP, we’ll talk. Less than that, and he doesn’t provide enough value.
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I have a hard time believing that his baserunning skills makeup for his mediocre fielding and his sub-.300 SLG. He’s not exactly Rickey Henderson or Vince Coleman out there. In fact, he cost the team five outs last year through baserunning mistakes, not caught stealing, just plain mistakes.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 3:48 PM MST up reply actions
You don't need any SLG for a leadoff position
You need get on base only, in any way possible - from singles to walks to passed balls to error on hurried throws by opposing infielders, etc.
No one said he was Rickey or Vince. But a Juan Pierre of old, or Chone Figgins in California a couple years back or a Michael Bourn or Jason Bourgeoius of Houston today are good comparisons.
He doesn’t need a .350 OBP even though that would be nice. Anything above .325 would work in my book.
Anything above .325 would work in my book.
From leadoff? No.
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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with his SB success rate?
maybe
arenado: it's Rockie for future
not a .325 OBP from the leadoof position though
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JFK
You do realize that the leadoff man doesn't always leadoff, right?
His career SLG is .295. .298 in 2011. So, not even close to your .325 which is lower than all of the players you mentioned above. He can’t even reach your minimum. How is he going to get to a reasonable number for a starter like .350?
Bourn in Houston: .358
Bourgeouis in Houston: .327
Pierre Career: .363
Chone Figgins in LA: .388
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 4:06 PM MST up reply actions
You do realize he is batting "behind" the pitcher, right?
The idea is not to knock the pitcher in with an extra base hit, which is SLG.
Umm.
Here’s a scenario. Todd Helton leads of an inning batting 7th. He pops up. Ramon Hernandez is hitting 8th. He hits a double. The pitcher comes up. He strikes out. There are two outs and a runner on second. Getting on base isn’t exactly what we want EY to do there.
The leadoff man gets more PAs than anyone else on the team. He needs to have at least a little bit of ability to hit the ball. That’s why those names tat you mentioned don’t have sub-.300 SLG. Three of them were competent MLB starters. EY is not.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 4:39 PM MST up reply actions
god LA figgins was good
sigh…
arenado: it's Rockie for future
And the point of the Vince and Rickey references were that you were making it seem like he is some kind of elite baserunner. If he was an elite baserunner like Coleman or Henderson, he might make up for some of his deficiencies. Unfortunately, he’s not.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 4:22 PM MST up reply actions
He’s only about 30% off the pace.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 4:28 PM MST up reply actions
yeah,
but still 4th in MLB as a 26 year old
arenado: it's Rockie for future
No doubt.
But to make up for his other deficiencies, he really needs to be even better than he is now.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 4:32 PM MST up reply actions
Sorry, but right now EY would not even be the best infielder on a good high school team
Rather than say, “Oh, his defense isn’t really THAT bad,” the organization should implore him to improve his defense fundamentals and make it absolutely clear that this needs to happen if he’s going to play 2B at the MLB level. It’s a premium defensive position, for God’s sake. I agree with you about his offensive upside, but his defense has to at least become serviceable.
by Northsider1964 on Jan 12, 2012 3:43 PM MST up reply actions
And who the hell are you to rate the defense of EY Jr. based on a HS team?
Actually, a study of his defense shows that his range left to right is decent enough because of his speed.
I agree that his speed improves his range
But he’s got rocks for hands.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 3:55 PM MST up reply actions
If you want to get riled up when someone speaks the ugly truth
about your favorite player – be my guest. Why do you think the EY experiments at 2B always last about two weeks, then come to an abrupt end? He’s not going to be a major league second baseman unless his defense improves. Don’t take my word for it, trust the judgement of all 30 MLB teams.
by Northsider1964 on Jan 12, 2012 3:55 PM MST up reply actions
Look at it this way.
EY’s only real test at 2B was in 2010. He fielded about 100 balls there. He had six errors. Most starting 2B are going to field about 500 balls. Even a 20% improvement over that performance gives us a 2B making 24 errors. That’s about 3.5 times the amount of errors we had last year at 2B.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 3:59 PM MST up reply actions
Missed double plays are also a big factor at 2B
They don’t count as errors in the scorebook, but teams think of them as errors. EY’s double-play pivot is a little batter than when he first came up, but it’s still way below average.
EY’s a tremendous athlete – I think he could make more strides defensively. But it needs to happen pretty fast, or his ceiling is as a pinch-runner and 5th OF.
by Northsider1964 on Jan 12, 2012 4:05 PM MST up reply actions
A little batter
as in cake batter or batter up?
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 4:06 PM MST up reply actions
Sure.
But I don’t think there’s a stat on that. I was trying to demonstrate with something concrete.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 4:07 PM MST up reply actions
I project 15 errors for a full season by EY Jr.
That is the same as Dan Uggla, and EY will get to more balls than he will.
What backs your projection up?
Just curious
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 4:13 PM MST up reply actions
stands to reason
EY is younger and faster
arenado: it's Rockie for future
But Petro's prediction
factor’s EY’s previous performance at 2B into a full season projection – it is a pretty SSS, but it’s something. EY is younger and faster than a lot of ML 2B, but it doesn’t mean he’s as good or better than the majority of them.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 4:22 PM MST up reply actions
oh i don't think he'll ever be a good or even decent fielder
but i do think he’ll physically get near more balls than uggla in 2012, given equal playing time, that’s all
arenado: it's Rockie for future
I could probably get to more balls than Dan Uggla.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 4:26 PM MST up reply actions
(stifling laughter)
Some days, I feel like I’ve accidentally entered the Church of Tulowitzki on Baseball Easter.
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Bah!
This whole discussion was to set me up for that, wasn’t it?
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 4:34 PM MST up reply actions
crap
he figured it out guys, game’s over.
arenado: it's Rockie for future
Well I am not a sabermetrician...
…and I don’t even know that I spelled that right. I leave that stuff to Fangraphs.
But I do study. Generally, I use baseball-reference.com for raw stats. I too have to use 2010 as the year with the most “Total Chances” by EY Jr at 2B but part of my analysis assumes that EY has improved in the last two years.
AND, at the risk of creating a firestorm, it is my belief that errors at SS and 2B are nverall not as costly as errors in the OF and IF corners.
That's still more than twice as many errors as last year.
Why would we add more errors to 2B? What does he bring to the table counteract that loss of value?
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 4:23 PM MST up reply actions
The guy stole 27 bases and got caught 4 times in limited duty
Not to mention all the time he was steaming around 2B into 2B or even around 3B into home on a ball hit to outfield.
Herrera had 4SB and 4 CS.
I project 60 to 80 SBs by EY Jr. for a full season. That is what he brings to the table.
He also cost us five outs on the basepaths
in addition to the 4 CS.
Unfortunately, his above average baserunning does not make up for his below average defense, SLG, BA, etc. If he were truly an elite baserunner, you might have a slightly better argument, but he isn’t. He’s fast. That’s about it.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 4:31 PM MST up reply actions
Well that where we disagree
And I don’t think he is a average baserunner. We expect perfection from EY Jr for some damn reason, but I remember many times lots of other runners did dumb things also….like trying to stretch a single or double.
You don;t have to agree with me, but PURPLE ROW and TRACY should at least consider this a viable option that has great upside if they can manage the downside.
I said he was above average.
DOD makes this call. He doesn’t see him as a viable option at 2B. Sorry.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 4:41 PM MST up reply actions
The other runners
can hit and field the ball better than EY2. EY2 is faster and a (much much much) better base runner than Dexter Fowler. Fowler secured a starting spot through stellar defense and a solid bat. If EY could hit and field as well as Fowler, I don’t think this would be a discussion.
Nobody disagrees that EY is good-great on the basepaths – its a discussion of how valuable baserunning is vs. everything else an MLB starter has to do.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 4:44 PM MST up reply actions
we expect perfection from EY on the basepaths because that's his one tool
he can’t afford to get picked off like Matt Holliday, because he can’t makd up for it elsewhere.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 5:25 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
walk, HBP, error
arenado: it's Rockie for future
dropped third strike
arenado: it's Rockie for future
no, i don't believe so
arenado: it's Rockie for future
You are correct.
10.13 b:
“The official scorer shall charge a catcher with a passed ball when the catcher fails to
hold or to control a legally pitched ball that should have been held or controlled with
ordinary effort, thereby permitting a runner or runners to advance. When the third strike is a passed ball, permitting the batter to reach first base, the official scorer
shall score a strikeout and a passed ball.”
PB =/= E, so a dropped 3rd strike is its own unique way to get on base.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 4:58 PM MST up reply actions
Also....
Balk,
Catcher Interference,
Impeding the Runner (usually fielding a bunt attempt)
Fielder’s Choice
Most of these things
Aren’t under EY’s control
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 5:00 PM MST up reply actions
But can he sustain a .342 OBP?
In 2010 that number was .312. His BA has been extremely consistent – between .244 and .247 every MLB season. What we would be banking on is that he is going to be able to consistently get on base every year without getting a hit the way he did last year.
And I would argue that if he does turn into a 60-80 steal guy as you’re projecting, it’s going to get harder and harder for him to draw walks at the same rate, especially if he hasn’t demonstrated some hitting skills. Pitchers will simply pound him with strikes and dare him to hit them.
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 12, 2012 5:10 PM MST up reply actions
he also was a year older than 2010, and had 40 more MLB PAs
he’ll turn 27 in 2012, still in his prime, and has demonstrated good BB% in the minors. no reason to think that he can’t do it
arenado: it's Rockie for future
Seems like there are pretty much equal reasons to think he can or can't...
He’s had one season go each way so far (ignoring the 61 PAs in 2009, with a .295 OBP that’s probably too sss to even worry about…)
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 12, 2012 5:18 PM MST up reply actions
indeed
a couple full seasons would do wonders to prove this, but i think the one thing we can all agree that that won’t happen
arenado: it's Rockie for future
batters don't usually get awarded first on a balk
arenado: it's Rockie for future
Also
being NOT EY2… snicker snicker.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 4:49 PM MST up reply actions
Sorry
Not trying to be an ass or anything. But, this is an old saying in baseball. Speed has very little value unless you can hit. And I have yet to see anything that tells me he can hit.
.342 OBP
arenado: it's Rockie for future
BINGO......OBP is the point
I don’t care if he gets there by hits or walks or HBP every damn time. If he has a .342 OBP, EY Jr. has done his job…..and then the next job of stealing and/or being a distraction takes over.
And now we're back to...
As long as he carries at least a .350 OBP, we’ll talk. Less than that, and he doesn’t provide enough value. – Muzia
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 12, 2012 5:04 PM MST up reply actions
I will try to find a study I read on this....
But it says that OBP and base stealing skills can bet proportional to the value of the team. It is obvious really. If Toddfather has a .350 OBP but can’t steal worth a lick, should we put him to bat first?
Essentially, the more steals and greater stealing percentage/success rate allows the player to have a lower OBP for equal value.
While of course everyone would like a high OBP and also a high steal count, it is not necessary.
So that it why EY2 could have a lower OBP, in my humble opinion.
i disagree
NL 2B averaged .319 OBP in 2011, and .333 in 2010. and the crop for 2012 likely won’t be much better than that. an OBP around .330 would be more than satisfactory from a full-time 2B with his basestealing abilities
arenado: it's Rockie for future
Not as a leadoff man.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 5:11 PM MST up reply actions
You're giving the most PAs on your team.
To a guy who has a sub-.300 SLG. That’s not going to work out.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 5:12 PM MST up reply actions
man batting 2nd gets the most PAs
and having a low SLG is offset by his basestealing
arenado: it's Rockie for future
It is mathematically impossible for the man batting 2nd to get more PAs than the man batting first over the course of a season, if they stay in those spots in the batting order.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
no, its not
it’s close, but the #2 guy gets the most, and that’s why sabr doctrine says you put your best hitter there
arenado: it's Rockie for future
what? this makes no sense
there is no game in which the #2 guy will bat more than a #1 guy, ergo it is equally impossible on a season scale. SABR doctrine says to put your better hitter #2, because he will have more PA with men on base, as he bats in the 1st inning with a man on 35% of the time, vs 0% for a leadoff guy
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 5:33 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
i can't seem to find it
but i’m very sure i’ve read it
arenado: it's Rockie for future
nope, you're right
leadoff tends to get around 20 more PAs.
arenado: it's Rockie for future
NL leadoff men averaged .328 OBP in 2010, and .331 in 2011
with a 76% SB success rate. EY can outperform or exceed that in a full season
arenado: it's Rockie for future
match or exceed*
arenado: it's Rockie for future
How do we know that?
He hasn’t played a full season, so it’s probably a bit speculative to declare what he can or can’t do in one. And his 2 most significant MLB seasons have been 1 above and 1 below that level.
I think the best we can say is that he might outperform or exceed that in a full season.
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 12, 2012 5:20 PM MST up reply actions
read the fangraphs article about rajai davis
arenado: it's Rockie for future
It tells us for sure what a full season EY2 would do?
Their writers must have a bigger digression problem than I do….
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 12, 2012 5:24 PM MST up reply actions
no, but it gives a basic idea of how good a basestealer he is
4th in MLB, with a little regression, would likely pan out to around 80% success rate
arenado: it's Rockie for future
He is just under 78% right now...
I’m not sure I would count on him regressing up. He’ll have more experience, which should help him, but he will also attract more attention from pitchers and catchers if he becomes a big-time SB threat.
And that really doesn’t address the likelihood of him remaining a .340 + OBP guy working from a below .250 BA. It means he could possibly be more valuable than his OBP might suggest, but that added value is also going to be needed to make up for his shortcomings in terms of SLG and defense…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 12, 2012 5:52 PM MST up reply actions
that’s because EY is in those samples, dragging the averages down!!!!
jk jk, we don’t bat him leadoff. But for real, I wonder what the leadoff OBP is for playoff teams…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
I am much more interested in the Stanwood theory of Helton in leadoff than EY.
EY just isn’t a major league player.-.8 career WAR just doesn’t give me much confidence.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 6:01 PM MST up reply actions
I like Helton as a 2-hole hitter. But a Helton-anywhere strategy is still leaving like 60 games with an unfinished lineup..
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
I'm not a big proponent.
I just think it’s a better idea than rolling EY out there by comparison.
My idea is to get Prado to bat #2. PRAAAAADOOOOOOOOO
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 6:15 PM MST up reply actions
I’m still a believer in EY. But it’s LeMath’s job to lose imo…
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
Well,
when DOD listed the players who would be competing for 2B the other night, he listed Herrera, DJLM, and Nelson.
I think EY will be getting reps in the outfield if he is with us still. In a situation in which Smith is traded, Blackmon is rehabbing still, and the new recruits are lackluster, EY has a chance as 4th OF.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 6:20 PM MST up reply actions
I never suggested Helton at leadoff. Just #2 behind Fowler.
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by Greg Stanwood on Jan 12, 2012 6:31 PM MST up reply actions
Bah!
Sorry.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 6:34 PM MST up reply actions
No prob... just wanted to make sure that was clear. :)
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by Greg Stanwood on Jan 12, 2012 6:49 PM MST up reply actions
prove it
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
Where has RIRF been, anyways?
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 6:44 PM MST up reply actions
Living life.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 6:46 PM MST up reply actions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9eQ8_T1ytU
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 6:47 PM MST up reply actions
I just accidentally deleted that list of everything I've ever said.
Bad timing.
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by Greg Stanwood on Jan 12, 2012 6:51 PM MST up reply actions
found it
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
My spacebar key must be broken.
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"The highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others." - Socrates
~WolfMarauder
by Greg Stanwood on Jan 12, 2012 9:58 PM MST up reply actions
it's your lucky day!
2011 AL playoff teams leadoff AVG/OBP/SLG
NYY: .262/.332/.362
TBR: .258/.333/.417
DET: .243/.311/.369
TEX: .264/.357/.480
BOS: .310/.366/.536
league avg: .265/.326/.395
NL
ARI: .253/.314/.417
STL: .254/.310/.351
MIL: .281/.356/.496
PHI: .257/.326/.414
ATL: .264/.313/..364
league avg: .269/.331/.401
arenado: it's Rockie for future
pretty mediocre
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
yeah, outside ellsbury and weeks/hart
not very impressive. interesting, hart’s line batting leadoff is .301/.366/.551, nearly identical to ellsbury’s
arenado: it's Rockie for future
well kinsler was good too,
but ellsbury and hart were far and away the class of leadoff men in 2011
arenado: it's Rockie for future
EY2 may have exceeded the league average in 2011
but it might be important to note that he was almost equally below league average in OBP in 2010 (.312 OBP). It might be a bit premature to conclude that EY2 is an on base machine…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 12, 2012 5:16 PM MST up reply actions
…and still had negative value. SSS applies as well.
I’m all for hoping he breaks out, but there’s not much there to suggest it will actually happen.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
-0.5 bWAR and -0.1 fWAR
that’s margin of error
arenado: it's Rockie for future
oh I can do this!
walk, intentional walk, hit batter, catcher’s interference, dropped third strike, fielder’s choice, error.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 12, 2012 5:23 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
WINNER!
YOU get to hit leadoff for YOUR Colorado Rockies!!!!!
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 12, 2012 5:49 PM MST up reply actions
take it easy
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by Andrew Martin on Jan 12, 2012 5:19 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Im on the bus, been on it for a while now
and I am growing tired of screaming “are we there yet??!!”
But I will continue to wish for a breakthrough season but he has to grab it by the throat in spring training
The Big Purple Machine will make a believer outta you!
by El Paso Jeff on Jan 12, 2012 3:15 PM MST up reply actions
Just looking at those AAA numbers, the guy has potential.
He has zero power behind his swing, but he doesn’t need it, just as Northsider said below (well, above when I post this). The team has shown that they are willing to sacrifice some defense at 2B (the trade of Jose Lopez last year sticks out) for some offensive production. I agree that he does need to work on his 2B defense, but the team may have moved on from that possibility because they shifted him to the outfield last year.
I am a huge EY fan, but I don’t think this idea is plausible. The team is definitely moving away from EY at 2B and may trade him soon.
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 12, 2012 3:27 PM MST up reply actions
Yeah, I know....
….but we did the same to other players like Pierro and Figgins.
AND look what happened in 2007 when we had two legitimate basestealers battikng #1 and #2. I think everyone underestimates the importance of this in the lineup.
In 2007
We also had the best defense in the league – something EY won’t help us achieve.
by The Toddfather's Goatee on Jan 12, 2012 4:16 PM MST up reply actions
JFK's Quote of the Day:
“I never heard a crowd boo a homer, but I’ve heard plenty of boos after a strikeout.” Source: Grand Slams and Fumbles (Peter Bellenson) ~George Herman Ruth
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
I don't like that lineup at all
It doesn’t have my favorite player in it :(
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
for the first time in 17 years
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
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