Sunday Rockpile: On the development of pitching, and how the Rockies are getting the off season right.
by Rox Girl on Jan 15, 2012 9:18 AM MST
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Early in the off-season, the Denver Post tried to pitch the idea that Carl Pavano would somehow be an answer to the Rockies rotation concerns. A few months later, with Pavano locked in with the Twins and the Rockies still searching for an arm, Troy Renck continues to see a need for a veteran starter as the team's glaring weakness. Obviously by bringing up the newspaper's affinity for Pavano, I'm expressing some skepticism that a veteran SP is necessarily the only or right prescriptive for the team's pitching ills. That said, I think it would be foolish to argue that the Rockies pitching doesn't need to improve over last season's performance.
Renck sets up the "as-is" opening day 2012 rotation as follows, and I think he's probably correct, pending possible changes via trade:
- Jhoulys Chacin
- Jason Hammel
- Drew Pomeranz
- Juan Nicasio
- Kevin Slowey
Later in the season, Jorge De La Rosa will be available, but will likely be rusty. Later in the season, Alex White, Christian Friedrich or Tyler Chatwood may have seen enough development for them to be viable alternatives to any of the above. As is the case with third base and perhaps even second, the key for the Rockies to compete in 2012 may just be to be close enough early to get to "later in the season" in good shape.
Among the things that we know about young pitching is that it can progress quickly and that small rookie samples are hardly indicative of a pitcher's true skill set. Justin Verlander had a 7.14 ERA in two starts when called up in 2005, in 2006 he was a 17 game winner with a 3.63 ERA, he had an MLB beginning not that dissimilar to Drew Pomeranz's. Pomeranz and Nicasio may be just good enough now, and without much change to their approach and skill could already be playoff competitive. As Renck points out, Jhoulys Chacin absolutely needs to improve his command to reach a similar point, but you can look at the progression of pitchers like Edwin Jackson to see that it can and does happen as a pitcher learns and matures. Alex White and Tyler Chatwood would fall into the same boat. Hammel and Slowey may be seen more as place holders, but they are both relatively reliable bottom of the rotation values.
General managers will try and eliminate as much uncertainty as possible when building teams, but outside the biggest markets, eliminating all uncertainty is next to impossible. They don't want to go into a season with too many "if this happens, we'll be good" statements, but some will be inevitable. In smaller or more budget constrained markets, GM's have a choice between putting that risk into either older players that are past their peaks but still may have something left in the tank, or younger players that have not yet reached their potential. With the pitching staff, O'Dowd's taken the latter approach, trusting that the young arms as a group will move forward. With the offense, he's taken the former, hoping that Michael Cuddyer and Casey Blake show they still have it.
Before the off season started, I expressed a wish to see the team take this exact course, and expressed my disappointment that the value of the likely internal progression of the pitching was getting underestimated in the team's expressed priorities for a veteran innings eater. I felt they were more likely to see a redundancy and inefficiently spend money on the rotation than they would by shoring up the lineup. As such, I may actually be more sanguine on the team's chances in 2012 than many. We have a weak division, and the team has the talent needed to compete in it. It's just a matter of whether it's ready or not.
From the moment the Ubaldo Jimenez trade became a near certainty, the Rockies 2012 became a gamble on variety of developmental and veteran health questions being answered positively. Without a miraculous Marlins sized infusion of revenue, there was no way the payroll was going to support anything more than this kind of risk taking. Because so many of the Rockies best young pitchers were AA or above, many already in the majors, it was clear that the most likely area that positive young player development would have an impact was in the rotation.
All of this being said, if Renck's piece was really just a prod to get the Monforts to pony up whatever it would take to land Roy Oswalt or perhaps Jackson, I'm not opposed to that plan at all. The budget likely doesn't support it, of course, but nobody would complain with that kind of late winter surprise.
Nolan Arenado and Jordan Pacheco both did brief interviews from the rookie development camp.
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JFK
Until he proves he's...
COMPLETELY healthy, I wouldn’t touch him. Besides, Cashman would probably want Arenado for him anyways. No dice.
Don't hate it, but would have to be cheap
Smith alone, or Smith and EY or a lesser prospect. Hughes is not a great fit for Coors and was horrible last year, but if his back problems relent (he’s only 25) he can be a beast. Sometimes when those things aren’t structural they can go away for a few years for young guys. Good risk.
I do think we may have better options if we wait. Rangers might be in the market in a couple days (I would SO give up Wheeler and more for a Matt Harrison, for example). Still think the White Sox are calling around. And the A’s, now that they (may) have signed Colon. And then there’s always the chance Jackson drops so far we might just be guilted into making an offer rather than go into the season with a lower payroll than 2011.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 9:49 AM MST up reply actions
Renck mentioned it a few days ago
They will have six starters once they sign Darvish, with two of the best regarded SP prospects about a year away. Plus they can always sign whomever they want with their new TV contract. They “should” be out there on the trade market, offering either Lewis or Harrison. I’d be excited about the former, not the latter, but it would be painful. Would take Wheeler for sure, and one of our young pitching or infield prospects. If Rangers have decided to give up Hamilton next off-season, they could use an OF about a year away.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 10:42 AM MST up reply actions
Latter, not the former ...
Definitely don’t want to give up a lot for Lewis, who (I believe) is a FA next year.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 10:44 AM MST up reply actions
if can become an assured playoff team,
we go for lewis. fun with sample sizes and all, but he’s been money for the rangers 2 straight years
arenado: it's Rockie for future
I should have mentioned that I somewhat like that idea, Hughes would obviously fit with the whole gamble on young arms thing
which I think is a generally solid and cost effective plan. That said, Smith should be more valuable than he’s proven in speculation thus far, I don’t know if Smith plus a prospect for Hughes would prove as worth it to me. I guess it would depend on the prospect.
Phil Hughes...
…has only pitched over 87 innings in one season.
…has a career ERA+ of 100, which is league average.
…had a WHIP last year of 1.487.
…has a career HR/9 of 1.1.
…has a career QS% of 44%.
…has a career GB/FB ratio of .55.
Why would we want him? I mean, for nothing, sure. Maybe he will actually reach his potential. But he isn’t worth much more than Smith.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 10:03 AM MST up reply actions
He was pretty good in 09 and 10
And is still only 25. Last year he had a bad back all year, and so it’s a huge risk. But you’re right, he’s not worth much more than just Smith, and as a result Yanks will likely keep him to try and rebuild his value. They’ll dump Burnett on someone like the Pirates or Royals, while eating most of his salary.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 10:09 AM MST up reply actions
His arm may be only 25, but his back is 35
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 15, 2012 12:43 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
…has only pitched over 87 innings in one season.
looks more like 4 to me
arenado: it's Rockie for future
Not in the majors.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 11:27 AM MST up reply actions
well that doesn't mean it didn't happen
and you can’t really blame him for being used almost exclusively in relief in 2009 and him getting tired as a full-time starter towards the end of 2010 and into 2011. and he did fine once he came off the DL
arenado: it's Rockie for future
If the cost was fair I’d do it. I’d also do Nova is the cost was right.
Both will probably be too expensive though.
Nova >>>>> Hughes
Nova’s their #2 or #3 starter now, a guy they totally trust. Hughes is in danger of crashing and burning completely if his back doesn’t improve. I would imagine if they no one is convinced to take Burnett off their hands they’ll deal on Hughes.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 10:38 AM MST up reply actions
Nova is not ahead of Kuroda and Pineda, imo
I actually think Nova will be pretty big disappointment in 2011 as his value is inflated by wins and luck
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2012 10:40 AM MST via Android app up reply actions
Possibly, but I'd give up plenty to get him
Hughes, much less.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 10:46 AM MST up reply actions
What Nova has going for him
is that he should get better while Kuroda should get worse. This is kind of indicative of the truth about the Yankees rotation though. Pineda, a guy who has pitcher 171 major league innings is set to be their second-best starter next year.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 10:47 AM MST up reply actions
I still think Nova has some proving to do. I agree with Andrew’s analysis of 2011 but I am more optimistic in his future outlook, though more pessimistic on his future outlook than BostonTransplant as I could see him just as easily settling into a very nice #4 in that rotation as he could at settling into a nice #3. And I do think it is even possible he regresses beyond, though not saying that’s where he is headed.
Between Hughes and Nova, I’d rather take the safer Nova but would be ultimately choose the more cost friendly pitcher, assuming one of the two could be had for an affordable cost.
he only outperformed his FIP by a third of a run
and was significantly better after his demotion; nothing about his splits suggests a whole lot of luck was involved in his season
arenado: it's Rockie for future
hughes isn't the one who's going to be traded out of the yankee rotation
burnett, if anyone
arenado: it's Rockie for future
ill take him if they pay his entire salary maybe minus 1 mil per year
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Jan 16, 2012 6:31 AM MST up reply actions
acquire all young arms, of course im in favor of that
A baseball park is the one place where a man's wife doesn't mind his getting excited over somebody else's curves
by waterboy31321 on Jan 16, 2012 6:30 AM MST up reply actions
That is a cool picture.
Where is that at?
37 today, 36 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 10 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
Chile, for the Dakar Rally, but it looks a lot like it does in the Red Desert/Brown's Park area of Southern Wyoming and NW Colorado
Which means nostalgia is probably why I posted it.
I see.
I’m, like everyone else here, is ready for based ball to get started.
37 today, 36 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 10 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
by Roxman4ever on Jan 15, 2012 10:03 AM MST up reply actions
As am I.
Football is over. Time to focus on Baseball until the Rockies are out of it.
So I’ll be all Baseball until early November…Right?
Avalanche 2011-12 season, Mission 45 Wins.
Get well soon Juan.
one of the sites I work on monthly is in the "town" of Red Desert
It’s an abandoned gas station that developed into an abandoned adult book store.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2012 10:06 AM MST via Android app up reply actions
I sometimes wonder what kind of vision leads people to invest in things like that.
To invest in the gas station, you would have to be making a pretty substantial bet on the stupidity and lack of foresight of drivers in remote locales, and to invest in the adult bookstore, the bet would be on a sufficient amount of sex starved truck drivers despite relatively healthy prostitute populations in both Casper and Rock Springs.
Healthy Prostitute Rock Springs
Four words I thought that I’d never see in the same sentence.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 10:27 AM MST up reply actions
Yeah, I realized after I posted that I probably chose the wrong adjective...
Let’s just say that per capita, those two Wyoming cities seem to have more than their fair share of working girls.
Interesting.
Do you have any insight on the differences between Grand Junction and Casper in this regard? Late-round draft picks want to know. ;)
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 10:32 AM MST up reply actions
I haven't looked at any studies, but I think G.J. has less of an issue with it.
but Rifle’s not too far away from there, and I think it fits with Casper and Rock Springs in that the affordability of housing, availability of meth or other addictive substances, and high percentage of of transient workers is the typical combination for higher levels of prostitution.
I'm far from an expert on the subject :)
but I’m not aware of a large prostitutional population here in the Grand Valley. As RG mentioned, the cost of housing would be against a large number of them settling here, and unfortunately a lot of the transient workers have left here in the last 3 years or so as their jobs have moved away. The availability of meth, on the other hand, would not be a problem here in Metha County (although that’s better than it used to be).
As for the prospects, at least for the first few years, they should be fine with just the fact that they are professional baseball players. The novelty and excitement factor should serve them well with the young ladies around town, many of whom probably spent a few weeks in their teenage years as Juco Jennies, and have probably never gotten over the desire to attract the attention of a handsome baseball player passing through town…
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 15, 2012 12:37 PM MST up reply actions
the area was booming quite a bit more a few decades ago
Sinclair is a major refinery, and Enron actually created a large subdivision of houses in Table Rock, which is now abandoned. most were never lived in. But now, it is no surprise no businesses survive there
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2012 10:33 AM MST via Android app up reply actions
Ain’t no ghost town like a Wyoming ghost town. I still remember the first time I drove through Jeffrey City. I thought I was rolling into a movie set.
As for Casper’s prostitute population – not what it used to be since they closed down that ‘massage’ joint that was clearly visible from highway 20 on your way towards Shoshoni.
The lesson here is that Wyoming is weird.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
by Franchise26 on Jan 15, 2012 11:47 AM MST up reply actions
Rec'n that!
The off-season sucks.
That is all.
by DAWNMARIE01 on Jan 15, 2012 11:49 AM MST via Android app up reply actions
‘Weird’ isn’t always a pejorative. I actually enjoyed many of Wyoming’s quirks. But it’s definitely quirkier than any other state I’ve been to.
"You spend a good piece of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around the whole time." - Jim Bouton
by Franchise26 on Jan 15, 2012 11:52 AM MST up reply actions
I'd have seen that twice a month.
from the outside of course.
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2012 12:12 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Can't speak to the adult bookstore
But as for the gas station, my guess is that someone started that business in an entirely different era, when small towns has to rely on local businesses for goods and services. Someone might have made a nice living for himself and his family from that gas station, and provided the locals with a lot of necessary services. Civilization didn’t begin in 1992.
by Northsider1964 on Jan 15, 2012 11:16 AM MST up reply actions
That’s when it ended actually.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 11:29 AM MST up reply actions
there are quite a few of our sites in tiny towns that no longer have gas stations
the town of Linch has decreased in population by something around 95% in 50 years
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2012 12:13 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Sure, but it's not always even a question of population
The town in which I grew up is not really that much smaller than it was back then (though far fewer people live on the surrounding farms). In those days it had four full-service gas stations, each of which stayed busy and employed several people. Today only one remains as a part-time tire-and-lube place, and even it doesn’t sell gas anymore.
On the other hand, there’s now a fairly modern convenience store on the edge of town that does amazingly well – busy all the time. The world changes, and people’s needs change with it. Doesn’t mean those who came before us lacked foresight or were bad businessmen.
by Northsider1964 on Jan 15, 2012 12:30 PM MST up reply actions
Dakar ends today in Lima.
Most people don’t know that the driest desert in the world is the Atacama, which runs along the Pacific Coast in northern Chile and southern Peru. The rest of the Pacific Coast of South America is primarily desert as well, just not as dry as the Atacama section.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 10:12 AM MST up reply actions
But how's the surfing there?
Colorado Rockies Players on Twitter
"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." ~ Red Barber
PRMLB - Phillies
by Charlie77 on Jan 15, 2012 1:20 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
34 days until P & C report.
I can’t wait until some type of action for signaling Spring Training
34 today, 33 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 10 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
I can
34 today, 33 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 10 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
I dont know what the hell that is. I was typing something else and it just posted that on me
34 today, 33 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 10 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
by Roxman4ever on Jan 15, 2012 10:13 AM MST up reply actions
+1 for positive thinking
"Some guy on the net thinks I suck, and he should know - he's got his own blog." - Nick Hornby
"Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est"
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2012 10:13 AM MST via Android app up reply actions 4 recs
But should you?
We're trying to win a (#)(*@$%#)@#&$#)^ argument here!!!!
In line for seats at the Grand Junction Rockies 2012 home opener
by Junction Rox on Jan 15, 2012 12:27 PM MST up reply actions
I cant seem to get a Rockies schedule onto my computer
Do we play at April 28th,29th or 30th? And against who if so?
34 today, 33 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 10 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
May 25th-28th also?
34 today, 33 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 10 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
by Roxman4ever on Jan 15, 2012 10:15 AM MST up reply actions
http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/schedule/index.jsp?c_id=col#m=4&y=2012&calendar=DEFAULT
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 10:19 AM MST up reply actions
The answers are:
1) Yes. Mets.
2) No. Only 5/28 against Astros.
Purple Row MLB: An OOTP league for Rowbots
http://ootp.petrocw.com
Leading the Astros into the Future. Go, Go Astros!
by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 10:20 AM MST up reply actions
this is the problem. My wireless card is being a PITA right now and I'm having trouble getting links to show up.
34 today, 33 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 10 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
by Roxman4ever on Jan 15, 2012 10:24 AM MST up reply actions
At least I got that to come up. Thanks Petro
34 today, 33 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 10 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament.
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
by Roxman4ever on Jan 15, 2012 10:26 AM MST up reply actions
Is thinking about heading for ST March 23rd-26th.
Try and catch that Cubs game, I doubt it though, but for sure seeing that Reds game on teh 25th. Anyone else going to be there at that time?
34 today, 33 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 6 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament and 7 days until I start bowling
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
Dang.
I know there are a couple of guys on here that were talking about the days I mentioned above possibly being there. Maybe, it can set up where there is always a person that’s on the Row there everyday during ST. That way, there could be daily updates about what’s going on.
34 today, 33 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 6 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament and 7 days until I start bowling
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
by Roxman4ever on Jan 15, 2012 10:40 AM MST up reply actions
The Rox only have 1 day off in September?
Man, that is going to be hard on the bullpen.
34 today, 33 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 6 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament and 7 days until I start bowling
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
and only 2 off in August.
34 today, 33 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 6 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament and 7 days until I start bowling
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
by Roxman4ever on Jan 15, 2012 10:43 AM MST up reply actions
Better September than any other month, though
Expanded roster and all.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 10:45 AM MST up reply actions
Good point.
Maybe it will give the team a chance to gel up and play as a unit. Who needs a day off? Were paid to play.
34 today, 33 tomorrow is how many days remain until Pitchers and Catchers report for Spring Training. Plus, its 6 days until I go to Las Vegas to bowl in a professional tournament and 7 days until I start bowling
Self taught and falling in love with this game is very easy to do, you can never hate it, and that is something that not one person can take away from anybody. The love of baseball and OUR COLORADO ROCKIES.
by Roxman4ever on Jan 15, 2012 10:48 AM MST up reply actions
opponents are rough, too
29 games, 20 of which should be against good teams, 25 if you like the padres chances this year
arenado: it's Rockie for future
A wild card / joker in the deck / ace in the hole ...
(enough card analogies) with the pitching possibilities is Chad Bettis.
There’s probably no chance he’ll get a shot at the Opening Day rotation,
but I hope the Rockies keep him starting at Tulsa instead of converting him to relief for quick bullpen help. I think he has the chance to do what Nicasio did last year — reach the point of dominance in AA & become a viable alternative to replace either an injured or inneffective big league starter. Ditto Chatwood in AAA if he’s sent there.
I agree with RG. I’d rather have multilple developing young arms with a reasonable chance to make a big leap forward than a Kip Wells or Mark Redman parked in AAA.
We’ve been down that route, and it’s a path to nowhere.
2012 has to be a better year. Doesn't it?
I agree with this, but
there’s a huge difference between a Kip Wells type and, say, a Roy Oswalt or a even a Phil Hughes. We have absolutely no need for a below average veteran with little chance of being anything else. But an above average vet on a short contract would do this club a lot of good in 2012. As would another big young arm with upside, like Hughes still is.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 11:26 AM MST up reply actions
whoa
arenado: it's Rockie for future
Yeah, was just going to say
Not sure I would have done that right off the bat. Talk about a team that’s willing to take risks, though. They’re the anti-Rockies.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 11:55 AM MST up reply actions
yup
that team has a very bright future, even if they don’t sign fielder, which now they probably won’t.
arenado: it's Rockie for future
Fielder to the Rangers now looking pretty likely, too
Which is I suspect what Boras/Fielder had in mind since day one. Massive talent shift from NL to AL this off-season, something that hasn’t been written about much.
Poor A’s. In that division, they’ll be luck to win 50 games. Mariners have good enough pitching to not be embarrassed, though.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 12:07 PM MST up reply actions
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/prince-fielder-rumors-saturday.html
arenado: it's Rockie for future
maybe
depends on hamilton i reckon
arenado: it's Rockie for future
i should say,
it depends on how the rangers view hamilton going forward
arenado: it's Rockie for future
I'm mostly extrapolating from circumstantial evidence
Seems likely that the Nats have had an offer on the table for some time, and there’s a reason Fielder hasn’t taken it. The reason being the Rangers: More likely competitors right away and they have the slot open. Hamilton is likely gone after this year and even with Darvish their annual payroll is probably still under $100m. With the TV deal a $120m payroll is pretty manageable, and they can use the Hamilton savings to sign Kinsler.
Seems like a Boras type move. I’d put it at more than 50/50.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 12:55 PM MST up reply actions
That'd be ridiculous.
Darvish + Fielder?
How long ago was it that the Rangers had no money and had to rely on MLB? My goodness, this is ridiculous.
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 15, 2012 12:44 PM MST up reply actions
Don't think that's likely
They’ll acquire one or the other, but not both: Fielder’s always been mentioned as “backup plan” in case the Darvish negotiations go horribly wrong.
I think Fielder still gets 5-7 years from the Nats; they’ll certainly still have the resources after this extension.
From Ft-Worth Star Telegram
Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram thinks that if the Rangers went after Prince Fielder, it likely would mean no long-term extension for Josh Hamilton.
Wilson writes that the Rangers “might not be deciding between (Yu) Darvish and Fielder” but rather “which left-handed slugger they’d rather have — Fielder or Hamilton.” Hamilton is currently set to hit free agency following the 2012 season, but the outfielder and the team have both indicated a desire to hammer out a long-term extension before Opening Day. Perhaps, though, the Rangers might wind up deciding they’d rather have both Hamilton and Fielder for 2012 and the latter over the long haul.
I would take Fielder if that's the choice
I’m not sold about Prince holding up long term at his size, but I’m not convinced Hamilton isn’t already heading for the downside. If they can pair them up this year and maybe get over the hump in the World Series, then let Hamilton go, that might not be a bad move. Once Prince can’t play 1B anymore he should still have a few good years as a DH…
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by Junction Rox on Jan 15, 2012 2:44 PM MST up reply actions
Yes. I actually can't imagine the Rangers thinking any other way.
Unless they can afford all THREE, which would just be unfair. Interestingly, from what I’ve heard they’re also not sold on Nelson Cruz long term, and David Murphy has always been a “good enough” type outfielder. They could easily be thinking in terms of rebuilding an entire OF … they have one really good one in the minors, but that’s it. Which is why the Rox and Rangers might be a decent trade match (I’m thinking in terms of Wheeler).
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 2:50 PM MST up reply actions
absent the financials, that looks like a super good deal to me. His arb years and one (but potentially 3 total) free agent years. Aside from the Werth contract, the Nats have been pretty awesome.
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this was his first arb year, projected for $4.2mil
so maybe like, 5/7/9/11/15+15+15, or ~$35m guaranteed, possible $65
danks got 5/$65, but he was a year away from free agency… this could definitely be a steal for the nats
arenado: it's Rockie for future
I think barring Brandon Webb-esque injury, it definitely will be. Gio’s not the best, but he’s a pretty good pitcher with some upside left if he refines his control. They gave up a lot to get him, but Gio, Strasburg, and Zimmermann is an awesome 1-3.
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You could argue that they over paid in trade pieces but I’d imagine this will be a worthy extension. They’d have to be paying him like it was the open market, rather than buying out his arbitration years, to make it ridiculous. Even if his control issues remain somewhat, I still think he should be an effective SP.
What's the deal with our arb guys?
I think it’s just Smith and Dex, right? What are we expecting the damage to be and are we going to sign them to avoid it? Could Dex be a candidate for a longer term deal?
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 1:06 PM MST reply actions
I think they go Arb this year with Dex and if he continues improvement.
You do a 3 year deal after the season. Is he still a Boras guy? That could change things
Yes.
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by Greg Stanwood on Jan 15, 2012 1:16 PM MST up reply actions
Eliezer Alfonzo is also arb eligible.
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by Greg Stanwood on Jan 15, 2012 1:14 PM MST up reply actions
Why would we even offer him arbitration?
I thought we just cut him loose.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 1:18 PM MST up reply actions
The team is keeping him at least until his appeal is up.
After that, who knows. Alfonzo did not receive an arbitration offer, just like all players in this range of service time, he is entitled to it by default.
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by Greg Stanwood on Jan 15, 2012 1:20 PM MST up reply actions
I have admittedly not been following
Rox info as closely this off season, but why is Bettis all of a sudden being looked at mostly as a BP piece? I would also like to see him continue to get opportunities as a starter.
Also, I am trying to be negative or start a fight, but I’m trying to understand why everyone is so high on Pomeranz. I know he was a prized prospect, but I didn’t see in game action last year anything that matched the scouting report. I was especially disappointed in his velocity. Was there a report out there or any reason for his lack of stuff? Just nerves, rust?
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Appendectomy
Abdominal surgery is pretty major no matter how routine it is, and he just wasn’t at 100% strength after bring off for a while. Actually, I find the fact that he still got a lot of ML hitters out a sign of just how good he is. He’s absolutely polished as a pitcher, and with a 95 mph heater from the left side, he’s probably our best SP right now. His minor league numbers are just flat ridiculous.
by BostonTransplant on Jan 15, 2012 2:58 PM MST up reply actions
There is going to be extreme crowding at the AA rotation, not enough room for every starter that projects to be there.
Bettis is one of several of them considered to have potential value as both a starter and reliever. I think it’s fair to say that at least one of Gardner/Bettis/Chatwood pitches out of the pen (it might be Pomeranz too if they choose to keep his innings limited early instead of late), possibly more depending on how many of the contention crew don’t make the team and join Cabrera, etc, in the Tulsa rotation.
Regarding Pomeranz, a lot of people don’t seem to realize that he has only thrown 119 professional innings. Calling him a work in progress is an understatement. He has enough upside to justify maturing at the MLB level, but he’s not used to a full season of pitching work yet.
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by Greg Stanwood on Jan 15, 2012 2:59 PM MST up reply actions
When it comes to Pomeranz
I could understand him being rusty with his command or not having a feel for his pitches, even losing steam on his fb on occasion, but I didn’t understand why he looked like Francis out there. I thought he was supposed to be much more of a power pitcher. I was pleasantly surprised that he was getting major league hitters out, but I cant see him sustaining that consistently unless his stuff improves.
"Whenever I see an old lady slip and fall on a wet sidewalk, my first instinct is to laugh. But then I think, what if I was an ant, and she fell on me. Then it wouldn't seem quite so funny."
Jack Handy quote
After the trade he had to sit for 3 weeks
And then an appendectomy knocked him out for 3 more after like one start at AA. Last year we basically saw Pomeranz in Spring Training form.
Jason Giambi for player-manager in 2012!
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Bettis has had the "future reliever" tag since he was drafted
it isn’t a new development. He’s largely a two pitch pitcher with a fastball/slider and isn’t very tall (compared to SP). He has done almost everything to this point to keep a shot at starting, but if he makes an impact at the mlb level in 2012, it’ll be from the pen
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by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2012 3:24 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
Renck overrates our offense...
in that article. He says…
“It’s deliciously ironic that in Year 20 the Rockies have come full circle. Their lineup is loaded, a combination of speed, power and experience. If Dexter Fowler reaches base consistently and Michael Cuddyer’s power mushrooms at altitude, Colorado will rank among the league’s best on offense.”
Loaded lineup? Among the league’s best? I wish it were so. Last season was the worst for a Rockies offense in team history….low watermarks in run scoring and team batting averages. Well below average at 3B and 2B, and almost no ability to produce away from Coors. So what have we done this offseason to give Renck confidence to write so glowingly aout our offense? I agree that a healthy Blake is way better than the awfulness of Stewart and Wiggy last year. I also think LeMahieu can’t be much worse than our 2B black hole in 2011…and could be much better. But what else?
I think Renck is assuming Dex from August/September is the Dex we get all year. He also must be assuming we get more games played by a healthier Cargo and Tulo while Cuddyer is a steeper upgrade from Smith than we think. Still, I doubt that this offense is among the league’s best and won’t believe that until we can score over, say, 4 runs per game on the road, for starters. Until then, I think Renck has sounded too enthusiastic about our hitting in his piece.
Well, let's take a look at the league.
Let’s use wRC+. Last year, the Rockies were actually 8th in the league. (NOTE: We were tied for second in runs scored.) With the exception of the Marlins, none of the teams below them made any moves to improve their offenses significantly. Assuming that the Rockies will improve, as most do, that leaves us with the Marlins and seven other teams to look at.
1) Cardinals
2) Brewers
3) Mets
4) Reds
5) Phillies
6) Diamondbacks
7) Dodgers
8) Marlins
Out of those teams, which do you think will be better than the Rockies offensively next year?
The top three teams are all suffering a major loss this offseason. The Diamondbacks were built on quite a bit of career years and are likely to suffer some regression. The Phillies are continuing to age. The Dodgers have loaded up with weak-hitting veterans. Even with only the addition of Cuddyer and Blake, the Rockies should be able to contend easily for a top five spot in 2012. With growth from Dex, better years from Tulo and Cargo, and only a slight drop off from Helton, we should be in contention for a top three team this year.
You might be being a little pessimistic. Remember that regression to the norm can also be positive. A franchise low in scoring is more likely to lead away from that extreme than toward a deeper one.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 5:57 PM MST up reply actions
Oh, also, with the other stat you mentioned as a low watermark,
we were tied for fourth in team batting average in the league.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 6:01 PM MST up reply actions
well, Coors Field
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by Andrew T. Fisher on Jan 15, 2012 6:07 PM MST via Android app up reply actions
That's why I used wRC+ above.
But since runs scored and average were mentioned in the criticism of Renck, I thought that I would mention it.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 6:10 PM MST up reply actions
Fair points...
And I may be too pessimistic. We sort of tanked in September and sat Tulo, Cargo, and Helton for most of the month with assorted aches and pains. That contributed to the team-low runs and AVG. No regular played more than 147 games, with only 143 from Tulo and 127 from Cargo. They should each get over 150 games if healthy. On that basis alone, our offense should be more consistent next season.
Still, being 4th in the NL in average is not a great rank by historic Rox standards. We’ve had many seasons of being first or second due to Coors Field. Maybe that’s why we seem to be switching from lower to higher AVG guys, even at the cost of OBP. But I still am withholding judgment on whether we will be a top three or five offensive team in the league. 2B and 3B are still huge question marks, The latter due to health and age issues and the former due to lack of proven MLB production from any of our current candidates.
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I think you hit it with this analysis. A healthier team would help out a lot, as would getting rid of some of the players they’ve been stockpiling without much success the last couple years (Spilborghs and Wigginton are examples of this)
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by waterboy31321 on Jan 16, 2012 6:35 AM MST up reply actions
Am I the only one who noticed a major glitch in one of the projected first round picks?
Are players editable or will this player stay that way?
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wrong thread
can someone remove it? thanks
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It's Spring Training for everyone.
I'M SORRY I WAS EVER MAD AT YOU, ROCKIES! COME BACK TO ME! I LOVE YOU!!
by prettyinpurple on Jan 15, 2012 7:06 PM MST up reply actions
Actually, it's like mid-June for some of us.
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by DumbAndNerdy on Jan 15, 2012 7:26 PM MST up reply actions
(that's the joke)
I'M SORRY I WAS EVER MAD AT YOU, ROCKIES! COME BACK TO ME! I LOVE YOU!!
by prettyinpurple on Jan 16, 2012 8:44 AM MST up reply actions
Rockies and Smith agree to 1-year contract to avoid arbitration.
(Don’t think this changes any chances of getting traded. Had to be done either way.)
It only would if he signed for a lot more than expected for some reason.
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by Greg Stanwood on Jan 15, 2012 7:26 PM MST up reply actions
$2.415m
arenado: it's Rockie for future
This was O'Dowd's way of saying..
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Rockies Pitching
If you want to look at the status of the Rockies pitching look no farther than Bill Gievett. This guy never pitch a day in his life and he has the development staff reading his book on pitching development. Why is the world do you thing Latch left.
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