2011 Rockies Player Review: Carlos Gonzalez
by Jeff Aberle on Jan 19, 2012 11:00 AM MST
in Rockies Player Reviews
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2010 was a phenomenal year for Carlos Gonzalez, a true breakout season. He led the league in batting average (.336), hits (197), and total bases (351) while putting up 6.5 fWAR. On defense, he prowled the outfield with speed and grace, firing his laser of a left arm if baserunners were foolish. Gonzalez finished 3rd in NL MVP voting and won both a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger. Whenever you needed it most, CarGo had your tacos right here.
During the off-season, Gonzalez signed a 7 year, $80 million extension to keep himself in Denver through much of his prime, leading Rockies fans to imagine a multi-championship team lead by its 3 O's. In other words, expectations for 2011 for CarGo were pretty astronomical. It's safe to say that Carlos Gonzalez's 2011 didn't live up to those expectations -- but to be honest, very few players on the Rockies did, and CarGo would have come close if he weren't injured during the season's second half.
Fellow young star Troy Tulowitzki was supposed to be the slow starter, but it was CarGo who struggled early on, hitting just .228/.277/.304 in the season's first month. As the weather improved, Gonzalez found his groove -- eventually finishing the first half with a line of .292/.359/.491. After April, Gonzalez didn't have another subpar month at the plate, but unfortunately he didn't come to the plate nearly enough in the second half.
Gonzalez injured his right wrist while running into a wall trying to make a catch in July, then aggravated the injury multiple times over the next couple of months. His all-out style is one of the things that fans love about him, but it's largely what kept him off the field for 37 games in 2011.
On a rate basis, CarGo's final 2011 numbers (.295/.363/.526, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 20 SB) are pretty impressive, especially when you consider that he played most of the second half with a hurt wrist, only reaching 542 PAs on the year. If he were healthy, replicating his 2010 stats could have been a plausible scenario. Despite his sterling rep as an outfielder (he sure passes my eye test), neither Baseball-Reference nor Fangraphs rated Gonzalez's defense as a positive, so it was definitely interesting to see that he was worth 4.1 fWAR but only 2.6 rWAR.
Rating: B+
Gonzalez, even in an injury-plagued season, was a well above average middle of the order threat for the Rockies who played good defense (suck it, computers!). He wasn't an elite player, which is why the A eludes him, but it was still a pretty darn good "down" year.
2012: I fully expect CarGo to be an absolute beast in 2012 (30-30, GG, SS, his first All-Star appearance), but I will stop short of guaranteeing it (you're welcome). After all, Gonzalez does play with reckless abandon -- and being in the wrong place at the wrong time could derail great promise.
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Have to flat out disagree here
Cargo was an A if there ever was one, sure he got sick and hit .174 /.213/.232 over 18 games in April but then hit .312/.383/.577 from there on out. his 700 PA projection would have been 40HR 28SB over that stretch with a reasonable .339 BABIP.
He played above average defense at all 3 OF positions and cemented his arm’s reputation. He dropped his K rate 2% raised his BB rate 2.6%, even injured and sick he had an A season.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
by TomCat009 on Jan 19, 2012 11:52 AM MST reply actions 1 recs
the drop in k rate and uptick in bb rate is what made his season as far as I’m concerned. He’ll still have the reputation of being a Coors hitter who doesn’t get on base, but we will know better.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
if you told me in the 2011 offseason that
Cargo would lose 60 point of BABIP and still post a .383 wOBA I would take that every time.
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
it’s great, the decrease in k’s led to the difference between his BABIP and BA shrinking from ~50 points to ~30 points and given his minor league numbers, his major league numbers, and his overall skillset, there’s reason to believe he could settle in as a Matt Holliday type of player with .330-.350 BABIPS or really as a .300-.320 avg hitter..
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
also encouraging – though it remains to be seen if it’s a 1-year thing or true development, he posted the exact same wRC+ on the road in both 2010 and 2011 despite his road BABIP falling like 90 points on the road in 2011.
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
PRMLB: The Brew Crew
With the improved walk rate, I could see that
A .310/.380/.550 line or better annualy would be an A in my book.
We potentially have two players with 40+ HRs in 2012.
Very exciting! I do however worry about Cargo’s wrist. Is the injury always going to linger, or is he 100% in 2012?
There are two things that will really upset me this season.
1. Injuries
2.Tracy shuffling lineups and positions like he did last year. Give our guys some consistency!
"I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun."
if it was up to me I would go
1. Dex
2. Cargo
3. Tulo
4. Helton/Giambi
5. Cuddy
6. Blake
7. Herdandez
8. DJLMH
9. Pitcher
get the best hitters the most abs
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
Wait, you have the catcher hitting 7th
That’s not allowed, unless Fonzy is in the lineup.
by webgem14 on Jan 19, 2012 3:14 PM MST up reply actions 1 recs
Mine would be...
1. Fowler CF
2. Cargo LF
3. Tulo SS
4. Cuddles RF
5. Helton 1B
6. Blake 3B
7. Hernandez C
8. P
9. EY2 2B
"I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun."
Maybe not EY
Would hope to see EY with a different uniform this year. They need a bat and he isn’t one.
In regard to batting order, we may see Hernandez at 5, right after Tulo. But maybe Todd will have another up year. Will see how everyone else emerges.
This would read out:
1. Fowler
2. Cuddyer
3. Cargo
4. Tulo
5. Hernandez
6. Helton
7. Blake
8. Pacheco (2B)
9. P
by Real Perspective on Jan 19, 2012 4:00 PM MST up reply actions
Why in the world...
Would you sign Cuddles to protect Tulo, and then have him bat 2nd? That makes no sense. Also, after Helton had a rebound year in 2011… why in the world would you have Hernandez bat ahead of him?
"I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun."
lol why is cuddyer hitting 2nd?
you want your best hitter in the 2-hole, or the best combination of OBP-speed-power… cuddyer is none of those things
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Right.
Most importantly (imo) OBP and the ability to move a runner over.
"I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun."
I like that lineup and the idea of EY2 hitting ninth a lot
I would switch Hernandez and Blake though. Too bad if EY2 made the lineup Tracy would bat him first, though honestly, if EY2 could add like 20 points to his 2011 OBP (.342 in 2011) he would be an awesome option at second and batting first.
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
Hernandez and Blake could be swapped.
I believe with EY2’s new stance and new appreciation of the role he has… we could see his OBP rise. Batting somebody like EY2 (hardly any power) in the 9 hole makes a lot of sense.
"I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun."
EY2
2nd half numbers: .253/.367/.320 24 BB 28 K in 178 PA
Sept/Oct numbers: .297/.392/.391 9 BB 15K in 74 PA
He also vastly improved his numbers in Triple A FWIW. Say what you want about him as a ballplayer but you can’t deny that he’s been making progress. He made strides in 2010 as a second baseman and improved himself as a leftfielder this year. I don’t mind drinking the kool-aid on EY2 one bit, he should be given just as much of a shot as DJ in Spring Training.
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
It's good to see a few more people jumping on the EY2 bandwagon!
Hell, even with his 2nd half numbers of .253/.367/.320 he would get on base enough to cause major havoc on the basepaths.
My only concern is his ability to turn two with Tulo. If that’s not an issue, I give him a go.
"I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun."
DJ is just as much as an unknown at second as EY2
and Nelson doesn’t really have pretty numbers there in a small sample. I don’t think you know what you’re getting defensively out of any of them except Herrera who can’t hit anyways and Field who needs some more time
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
and while I'm optimistic about EY2 I still have my reservations
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
That' the thing
IF EY improves significantly he can and will be a useful major league player. If he doesn’t, he won’t. We don’t really hve a grey area with EY as he’s not got a plateau from which he’s slipped.
There are good hints he may be improving, but equally it could just be ephemeral, or pure luck. I’m looking forward to finding out but am fine with a Rockies team in 2012 that doesn’t feature him.
(he’ll hit .400/.500/.400 in ST now, won’t he)
PRMLB - The San Francisco Giants are better than you
I don't think I would complain too much
about Eric Young Jr. unless he was batting leadoff. Even with a decent OBP I do not want that BA and SLG to be the first guy up in front of the boppers
"There have been only two geniuses in the world. Willie Mays and Willie Shakespeare." ~Tallulah Bankhead
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too." ~Greg, age 8
Assistant GM of the PRMLB Cincinnati Reds
JFK
I'm secretly pulling for Chris Nelson to win the 2B job, as I love the talent there.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 19, 2012 4:59 PM MST up reply actions
Nelson or EY of course.
I don’t see much potential from DJ-Math, so I’m hoping they don’t just GIVE him the job. Make him earn it… I’m hoping it’s a straight open competition in ST.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 19, 2012 5:01 PM MST up reply actions
The main reason I like EY2...
is that he’s got blazing speed on the base paths. If he can increase his OBP, then just the fear of him running will distract most pitchers enough to make a difference.
Nelson has potential for sure, but I don’t think he’ll ever be a good OBP guy, and we have plenty of SLG in my opinion.
"I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun."
Can't disagree.
MOYER IS OUR SAVIOR
@DylanZable
by CentralCaliRox on Jan 19, 2012 5:06 PM MST up reply actions
For some reason I feel like somewhere I heard the FO or Renck say they like Nelson in a utility role
It’s up to EY2 and Nelson to prove that they can wait for DJ in Spring Training. It’s obvious the FO likes DJ but isn’t enthralled with him, as they are still looking for a starting second baseman.
Your 2012 Colorado Rockies:freshly exorcised from Ty Wigginton
i agree here
nelson needs more freed
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
That makes two of us...
…and probably only two of us that think it could happen.
by WhiskeyDrinkingMan on Jan 22, 2012 9:52 PM MST up reply actions
I'm a tough grader...and CarGo's 2011 just fell short of the A threshold. There's only one player on this team who deserves an A for 2011
Had he been healthy the whole time, sure — but you can’t separate that part of his season out.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
Had Cargo been healthly all season...
we could possibly be grading him an A+
"I need to think something lasts forever, and it might as well be that state of being that is a game; it might as well be that, in a green field, in the sun."
If Mat Kemp was an A+ then Cargo was an A
"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides
by TomCat009 on Jan 19, 2012 9:01 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
By rWAR, that's ridiculously not true (Kemp 10.0, CarGo 2.6) and by fWAR...
that’s still not true (Kemp 8.7, CarGo 4.1). Not even close.
The writer formerly known as Jabberwocky
READ and LEARN about the business of baseball at Purple Row Academy
Eschew Obfuscation!
that player is of course
josh roenicke
Trolling the Offseason: Starring Jamie Moyer, Directed by Dan O'Dowd, with Executive Producers Dick and Charlie Monfort
Do Fangraphs or BR
ever actually attempt to justify their defensive (or any) conclusions when, as here, they seem so utterly absurd? The idea that CarGo is anything less than an elite defender seems insane to me, so I really would like to know/see what it is that is apparently escaping my eye.
The formulas justify the outcomes, and, at least on Fangraphs, they will acknowledge that single season UZR can be wacky
but I’ve never read an acknowledgment that advanced defensive metrics for Rockies/Coors seem to always be weird.
Oddly, BR still rated Cargo +6 as a CF in 2011. UZR disagreed, but whatever. If he can play CF that well, with his arm he can play either of the corners.
I really want Carlos playing in CF as few games as possible (this means you Dex, not playing like doodie before Memorial Day)
CarGo always seems to run at 100 billion percent into the outfield wall when he’s in CF
"Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate"
Luftfeuchtigkeitsregler über alles.
by The Lodo Magic Man on Jan 19, 2012 5:35 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I like it when runners trust UZR more than their HDTVs
and get thrown out by CarGo.
"Are they called the Rockies because they rock?" - 7 y.o.
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